Utah Land Title Association Economic Overview February 1, 2016

Utah Land Title Association Economic Overview February 1, 2016

Utah is One of the Fastest Growing CA 0.9% States in the Country Percent Change in Population for States: 2012 to 2013 WA 1.1% OR 0.8% NV 1.3% AK 0.7% ID 1.0% National U.S. Rate = 0.7% VT ND Economic MT 3.1% MN 1.0% 0.8% SD WI 1.3% 0.3% MI WY PA 1.0% IA NE 0.5% OH 0.7% IL IN 0.2% UT Conditions 0.5% WV 1.6% VA CO MO KY - KS 0.9% 1.5% 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% NC 1.0% TN 0.6% AZ OK SC AR NM 1.2% 0.9% 1.1% 0.3% MS AL GA 0.2% 0.3% 0.8% HI 1.0% TX 1.5% LA 0.5% 1.15% or more.075% to 1.10% 0.5% to 0.9% 0% to 0.4% Population Loss FL 1.2% NH NY 0.4% ME -0.01% DC 2.1% CT DE 0.9% MD 0.7% MA 0.7% RI NJ 0.4% Source: U.S Census Bureau

Utah is One of the Fastest Growing CA 0.9% States in the Country A period of increasing Percent Change in Population for States: 2012 to 2013 U.S. Rate = 0.7% WA 1.1% OR 0.8% NV 1.3% NH interest rates?... VT ND MT 3.1% MN 1.0% 0.8% NY 0.4% ID 1.0% WY 1.0% SD 1.3% NE OH 0.7% IL IN 0.2% UT 0.5% WV 1.6% VA CO MO KY - KS 0.9% 1.5% 0.3% 0.4% It s up 0.3% to the Fed NC 1.0% TN 0.6% AZ OK SC AR NM 1.2% 0.9% 1.1% DC 0.3% 2.1% AK 0.7% HI 1.0% TX 1.5% IA 0.5% WI 0.3% LA 0.5% MS 0.2% MI AL 0.3% 1.15% or more.075% to 1.10% 0.5% to 0.9% 0% to 0.4% Population Loss GA 0.8% PA FL 1.2% ME -0.01% CT DE 0.9% MD 0.7% MA 0.7% RI NJ 0.4% Source: U.S Census Bureau

Payroll Change 000 s National Job Growth Steady 8.7 Million Jobs Lost 12.8 Million Jobs Recovered Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Monthly Change in Employment by Industry Total Change in Number of Jobs by Industry: Nov 2015 to Dec 2015 Industry Sector Monthly Jobs Added/Lost Natural Resources/Mining -8,000 Construction 45,000 Manufacturing 8,000 Trade, Transportation, Utilities 31,000 Information 16,000 Financial Activity 11,000 Professional & Business 73,000 Education & Health Services 59,000 Leisure & Hospitality 29,000 Other Services 11,000 Government 17,000 TOTAL 292,000 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; seasonally adjusted

National Employment Change Percent Change in National Employment by Industry: Dec 2014 to Dec 2015 Total: 1.9% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; seasonally adjusted

National Employment Change Total Change in Number of Jobs by Industry in Thousands: Dec 2014 to Dec 2015 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; seasonally adjusted

U.S. Unemployment Rates Dropping 5.0% in Dec Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Note: Growth rate calculated using real chained 1982-1984 dollars U.S. Wage Growth is Steady 2007-2015 Average 2.4%

Contribution to GDP Growth GDP Growth Slowing Total GDP Growth 4Q GDP 0.7% 2015 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Consumer Confidence Only Slightly Higher than One Year Ago Above 110 indicates economic prosperity Source: U.S. CCI from The Conference Board

Growth in Consumer Spending Remains Low Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Underemployment Remains Stubbornly High Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Note: Seasonally adjusted Labor Force Participation Rate % Lowest in Over 35 Years Mar 2000 67.3% Feb 1978 62.8% Dec 2015 62.6%

Percent Producer Price Index Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; seasonally adjusted

CPI Inflation Remains Very Low Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

U.S. Core CPI vs Core PCE Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Bureau of Economic Analysis; Core CPI and Core PCE represent all items less food and energy

Thousands Cumulative Job Loss by Months of Recession Source: Euler Hermes analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics Data

Thousands Cumulative Job Loss by Months of Recession Source: Euler Hermes analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics Data

Thousands Cumulative Job Loss by Months of Recession Source: Euler Hermes analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics Data

USD Euro compared to U.S. Dollar $1.39 PARITY $1.05 Source: Investing.com

US Dollar Compared to Chinese Yuan Inverted Scale 2008 China stops the yuan s rise 2001 China joins WTO Aug 2015 China devalues the yuan by largest amoun 2010 China allows the yuan to rise 2005 China allows the yuan to rise Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis

The World s Devaluing Currencies Compared to the USD November 2014-November 2015 Source: CNNMoney s reporting of data from Factset Note: 12-month change ending November 10, 2015

$ Per Barrel Oil Prices Hit Lowest Point in Over a Decade $108 $26 Sources: Pre-2016 data from U.S. Energy Information Administration; Post-2016 from Investing.com

$ Per Barrel Oil Prices Hit Lowest Point in Over a Decade $108 $26 Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration; weekly averages

Source: Baker Hughes Note: Total count includes oil and gas rigs Total U.S. Rig Count Down Significantly 1,931 698

Fed Fund Rate, Inflation, and Unemployment First Fed rate increase since 2006 Sources: U.S. Federal Reserve, Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Note: PCE is total personal consumption expenditures

Federal Funds Rate Forecast (December 2015) 2015 2016 2017 2018 Source: American Bankers Association Analysis of Data from the Federal Reserve

Utah is One of the Fastest Growing CA 0.9% States in the Country Percent Change in Population for States: 2012 to 2013 U.S. Rate = 0.7% NH Utah Economic WA ME 1.1% VT -0.01% ND MT 3.1% MN 1.0% OR 0.8% NY 0.8% ID SD WI 0.4% NV 1.3% AK 0.7% 1.0% WY PA 1.0% IA Conditions NE 0.5% OH 0.7% IL IN 0.2% UT 0.5% WV 1.6% VA CO MO KY - KS 0.9% 1.5% 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% NC 1.0% AZ 1.2% HI 1.0% NM 1.3% TX 1.5% OK 0.9% AR 0.3% 0.3% LA 0.5% MS 0.2% MI TN 0.6% AL 0.3% 1.15% or more.075% to 1.10% 0.5% to 0.9% 0% to 0.4% Population Loss SC 1.1% GA 0.8% FL 1.2% DC 2.1% CT DE 0.9% MD 0.7% MA 0.7% RI NJ 0.4% Source: U.S Census Bureau

Utah Population Sixth Fastest Growing in U.S. CA 0.9% OR 1.5% WA 1.5% NV 1.9% ID 1.2% AK 0.2% UT 1.7% AZ 1.5% MT 0.9% WY 0.3% CO 1.9% NM 0.0% HI 0.8% Percent Change: 2014 to 2015 U.S. Rate = 0.8% ND 2.3% SD 0.6% NE 0.7% TX 1.8% KS 0.3% OK 0.8% MN 0.6% IA 0.5% MO 0.3% AR 0.4% WI 0.2% LA 0.5% IL -0.2% MS 0.0% MI IN 0.3% TN 0.8% AL 0.3% 1.5% or more OH KY 0.3% 0.8% to 1.4% (at or above U.S. rate) 0.3% to 0.7% 0.0% to 0.2% Population Loss WV -0.3% VT - PA NC 1.0% SC 1.4% GA 1.2% VA 0.7% FL 1.8% NH 0.2% NY 0.2% ME - DC 1.9% CT - DE 1.1% MD 0.5% MA 0.6% RI NJ 0.2% Source: U.S Census Bureau

Utah Population Growth Rates By County 2013 to 2014 Box Elder 1.3% Tooele 1.4% Davis 2.1% Cache 0.9% Weber 0.9% Morgan 4.0% Salt Lake 1.0% Utah 1.6% Rich 0.7% Summit 1.7% Wasatch 4.3% Duchesne 1.4% Daggett -1.2% Uintah 3.3% State Average = 1.4% Juab 1.5% Carbon -1.3% Increase of 2.0% or Greater Millard -0.2% Sanpete 0.8% Sevier -0.3% Emery -0.8% Grand 0.7% Increase of 1.5% to 1.9% Beaver 0.0% Piute -2.6% Wayne -0.3% Increase of 1.0% to 1.4% Iron 1.2% Garfield -0.8% Increase of 0.0% to 0.9% San Juan 1.7% Population Loss Washington 2.9% Kane 0.2% Source: U.S. Census Bureau

A Look at Utah s Population Source: Historical U.S. Census Bureau; Projections - Utah Governor s Office of Management and Budget

Total Population Utah Population and Components of Change 2,995,91 9 15,744 35,934 Components of Population Change Sources: Utah Governor s Office of Management & Budget, U.S. Census Bureau

CA 2.9% OR 2.7% WA 2.8% NV 2.0% Note: Seasonally Adjusted Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Utah s Employment Growth AK - ID 4.4% UT 3.2% AZ 2.5% Third in the Nation Percent Change in Employment for States: Dec 2014 to Dec 2015 U.S. Rate = 1.9% MT 0.5% WY -2.2% HI 2.5% CO 1.9% NM 0.3% ND -4.0% SD 2.2% NE 1.4% KS 0.5% TX 1.4% OK -0.5% MN 1.5% IA 1.6% MO 0.9% AR 1.6% WI 0.9% LA -0.9% IL - MS 0.9% MI 1.9% IN 1.9% TN 2.3% AL 1.0% OH 1.5% KY 2.1% GA 2.2% WV -1.5% VT 0.8% PA 0.7% NC 2.1% SC 3.3% 2.0% or more (above the U.S. rate) 1.6% to 1.9% 1.0% to 1.5% 0.0% to 0.9% Loss VA 1.5% FL 2.9% NH 0.5% NY 1.7% ME 1.4% DC 1.4% CT 1.3% DE 1.7% MD 2.1% MA 2.1% RI 1.8% NJ 1.6%

Utah Total Employment at New Highs Gain of 224,000 jobs from low in 2009 Loss of 92,000 jobs from 2007-2009 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Total nonfarm seasonally adjusted Note: Numbers rounded to nearest thousand

UT Industries - Employment Gains Percent Change in Utah Employment by Industry: Dec 2014 to Dec 2015 Total: 3.2% Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services

UT Industries Seeing Growth Total Change in Utah Employment by Industry: Dec 2014 to Dec 2015 Total: 43,300 Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services

Utah Employment Change Rates By County Dec 2014 to Dec 2015 Box Elder 6.6% Tooele 0.9% Davis 3.4% Cache 3.5% Rich 0.0% Weber 3.3% Morgan 3.3% Salt Lake 3.2% Utah 6.1% Summit 4.2% Wasatch 7.2% Duchesne -14.9% Daggett 11.5% Uintah -9.3% State Rate = 3.2% Juab 3.0% Carbon -0.4% 4.0% or more Millard 0.0% Sanpete 4.6% Sevier 2.5% Emery -5.8% Grand 2.7% 3.2% to 3.9% Beaver 3.0% Piute -4.6% Wayne 3.7% 2.0% to 3.1% 0.0% to 1.9% Iron 3.8% Garfield 4.2% San Juan 3.2% Loss Washington 4.7% Kane 4.0% Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services, Not seasonally adjusted

OR 5.4% CA 5.8% WA 5.5% NV 6.4% ID 3.9% UT 3.5% AZ 5.8% UT Unemployment Rates Among Lowest in Nation MT 4.0% WY 4.3% CO 3.5% NM 6.7% December 2015 U.S. Rate = 5.0% ND 2.7% SD 2.9% NE 2.9% KS 3.9% OK 4.1% MN 3.5% IA 3.4% MO 4.4% AR 4.8% WI 4.3% IL 5.9% MS 6.4% MI 5.1% IN 4.4% TN 5.6% AL 6.2% OH 4.7% KY 5.3% GA 5.5% WV 6.3% VT 3.6% PA 4.8% NC 5.6% SC 5.5% VA 4.2% NH 3.1% NY 4.8% ME 4.0% DC 6.6% CT 5.2% DE 5.0% MD 5.1% MA 4.7% RI 5.1% NJ 5.1% AK 6.5% TX 4.7% LA 6.1% 3.9% or less 4.0% to 4.9% FL 5.0% Note: Seasonally Adjusted Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics HI 3.2% 5.0% to 5.4% (at or above the U.S. rate) 5.5% to 5.9% 6.0% or more

Utah vs. U.S. Unemployment Rates Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Utah Unemployment Rates By County December 2015 State Rate = 3.5% 3.4% or lower Box Elder 3.4% Tooele 3.8% Millard 3.5% Juab 3.5% Davis 3.2% Cache 3.0% Weber 3.8% Salt Lake 3.1% Morgan 3.0% Utah 3.0% Sanpete 3.7% Sevier 4.3% Rich 3.6% Summit 3.1% Wasatch 3.3% Duchesne 8.9% Carbon 6.0% Daggett 5.3% Uintah 8.4% Emery 6.7% Grand 5.8% 3.5% to 3.9% Beaver 3.6% Piute 6.8% Wayne 8.7% 4.0% to 5.9% 6.0% to 7.9% Iron 4.0% Washington 3.8% Kane 4.1% Garfield 8.9% San Juan 7.6% 8.0% or greater Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services

Utah Personal Income Growth 2nd Highest in the Nation OR 5.7% CA 6.5% WA 5.9% NV 5.9% AK 4.7% ID 4.2% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Percent Change in Personal Income : Q3 2014 Q3 2015 U.S. = 4.6%; UT = 6.3% UT 6.3% AZ 5.2% MT 4.6% WY 1.4% HI 4.8% CO 5.3% NM 3.3% ND -2.4% SD 1.4% NE 2.8% KS 3.6% TX 3.9% OK 2.0% MN 3.7% IA 1.3% MO 3.6% AR 4.5% WI 3.7% LA 2.6% IL 4.0% MI 4.6% IN 4.6% TN 4.9% MS 3.3% AL 3.9% 5.0% or more OH 3.5% KY 5.0% GA 5.2% WV 2.3% VT 3.0% PA 3.6% NC 5.3% SC 5.1% VA 4.6% FL 5.4% NH 4.9% NY 4.6% 4.6% to 4.9% (at or above the U.S. rate) 3.0% to 4.5% 0.0% to 2.9% Decrease ME 3.9% DC 4.8% CT 4.1% DE 4.5% MD 4.4% MA 5.2% RI 4.6% NJ 4.4%

UT vs. U.S. Personal Income Yearly Percent Change in Total Personal Income Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Utah Median Household Income Higher than Nation OR $56,307 CA $57,528 WA $60,106 NV $45,369 ID $51,767 AK $61,137 UT $62,967 AZ $50,602 2013 U.S. Rate = $51,939, 2013 Utah Rate = $62,967 MT $44,132 WY $55,700 CO $63,371 NM $42,127 ND $52,888 SD $54,453 NE $53774 KS $41,485 TX $53,027 OK $43,777 MN $60,90 7 IA $54,85 5 MO $50,311 WI $55,258 AR $39,91 9 OH IL IN $46,398 $57,196 WV $50,553 VA $40,241 KY $67,62 $42,158 0 NC TN $41,208 $42,499 LA $39,622 MI $48,801 MS AL $40,850$41,381 $61,000 or more $56,000 to $60,999 GA $47,439 VT $54,842 PA $53,952 SC $43,74 9 FL $47,88 6 NH $71,322 NY $53,843 ME $50,121 DC $60,675 CT $67,781 DE $52,219 MD $65,262 MA $62,96 3 RI $57,812 NJ $61,782 HI $61,40 8 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013 Current Population Survey $51,900 to $55,999 (at or above the U.S. Rate) $45,000 to $51,899 $44,999 or less

Consumer Price Index Wasatch Front vs. United States Year Over Year Change Source: U.S. CPI from National Bureau of Labor Statistics and Wasatch Front CPI from Cicero Group

US Consumer Confidence Index vs. UT Consumer Attitude Index Above 110 indicates economic prosperity Zions Bank Utah Consumer Attitude Index United States Consumer Confidence Index Source: U.S. CCI from The Conference Board and Utah CAI from Cicero Group

Three-Year Average Annual Population Growth Rate 2011-2014 Source: ERG reporting of U.S. Census Bureau data

Average Annual GDP Growth Rate 2011-2014 Source: ERG reporting of U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis data

Average Annual Employment Growth Rate 2010-2013 Average Employment Growth Rate 1.7% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Utah Poverty Rate Among Lowest in Nation CA 15.8% WA 12.0% OR 14.4% NV 17.0% ID 12.4% UT 10.2% AZ 21.2% 2014 U.S. Rate = 14.8%, 2014 Utah Rate = 10.2% MT 12.0% WY 9.7% CO 12.3% NM 20.0% ND 9.7% SD 12.8% NE 11.8% KS 12.1% OK 17.3% MN 8.3% IA 10.3% MO 10.4% AR 18.4% WI 10.9% IL 13.7% MS 22.1% MI 14.8% IN 14.6% TN 18.2% AL 17.8% OH 15.6% KY 20.0% VT 9.3% WV 17.3% PA 12.5% VA 10.2% NC 17.1% SC 16.5% GA 16.8% NH 7.2% NY 14.0% ME 13.5% DC 19.0% CT 8.6% DE 11.0% MD 9.8% MA 14.6% RI 1.3% NJ 11.3% AK 11.9% TX 16.4% LA 23.1% 10.5% or less 10.6% to 12.0% FL 16.7% HI 10.8% 12.1% to 14.4% 14.5% to 18.0% (at or above the U.S. rate) 18.1% or more Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013 CPS data

Utah Population Annual Average Growth Rates By County 2010 to 2060 Box Elder 1.2% Tooele 2.6% Davis 1.3% Cache 2.1% Weber 1.6% Morgan 2.1% Salt Lake 1.4% Utah 2.3% Rich 1.2% Summit 2.1% Wasatch 3.0% Duchesne 1.1% Daggett 1.3% Uintah 1.3% State Average = 1.8% Juab 2.3% Carbon 0.3% Increase of 2.3% or Greater Millard 0.5% Sanpete 1.2% Sevier 0.9% Emery 0.5% Grand 0.9% Increase of 1.8% to 2.2% Beaver 1.6% Piute 0.9% Wayne 1.7% Increase of 1.3% to 1.7% Iron 2.3% Garfield 1.2% Increase of 1.0% to 1.2% San Juan 1.0% Increase of 0.0% to 0.9% Washington 3.3% Kane 1.7% Source: Wasatch Front Regional Council and Governor s Office of Management and Budget

Utah is One of the Fastest Growing States in the Country Percent Change in Population for States: 2012 to 2013 U.S. Rate = 0.7% Construction WA ME 1.1% VT -0.01% ND MT 3.1% MN 1.0% OR 0.8% NY 0.8% ID SD WI 0.4% 1.0% 1.3% 0.3% MI WY PA CT 1.0% IA NE 0.5% OH NV 0.7% IL IN 0.2% UT 1.3% 0.5% WV 1.6% VA CO MO KY - KS 0.9% DE CA 1.5% 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.9% 0.9% NC 1.0% TN 0.6% AZ OK SC AR MD NM 1.2% 0.9% 1.1% DC 0.3% 0.7% 2.1% AK 0.7% HI 1.0% TX 1.5% LA 0.5% MS 0.2% AL 0.3% 1.15% or more.075% to 1.10% 0.5% to 0.9% 0% to 0.4% Population Loss GA 0.8% FL 1.2% NH MA 0.7% RI NJ 0.4% Source: U.S Census Bureau

U.S. vs. UT Median Existing Home Prices Source: Moody s Analytics

Utah Residential Construction Activity Source: University of Utah, David Eccles School of Business, Bureau of Economic and Business Research

2016 f UT Value of New Construction Source: University of Utah, David Eccles School of Business, Bureau of Economic and Business Research e= estimate f = forecast

Utah Economic Indicators 2014-2016 Source: State of Utah Revenue Assumptions Working Group e = estimate f = forecast

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