In line with expectations: Still waiting for a margin recovery

Similar documents
Potential asset restructuring of Sinopharm subsidiary

Slower-than-expected sales growth; stabilizing margins; Neutral

Lenovo announces agreement to acquire IBM s x86 server business

In line with expectations; steady NT growth, financing LT capacity

Apr premium: Still weak life FYP; P&C slightly below expectation

Hong Kong Banks: Rising funding divergence as rates rise

MIIT issues TD-LTE licenses to three operators, as expected

1H11 earnings to triple yoy; we expect further re-rating. Buy

In line with expectations; peak MUs delivery in 2014E; Neutral

Buy. Coolpad Group Ltd (L) Coolpad and JD.com make strategic cooperation agreement; CL-Buy ACTION. Return Potential: 23% Equity Research

Enel details synergies with Endesa potential upside to estimates

Russia gas supply favors gas utilities in the long term

Channels and technology in focus; takeaways from China LED Day

Why is the market so excited about Intel being a foundry for Apple?

Weigao sold remaining 50% interest in JWMS to Biosensors

The Private Sector Financial Balance As a Predictor of Financial Crises

Below expectations; yields still pressured, cost control is key

FX Swaps and Forwards

Economic and Fiscal Effects of the Affordable Care Act

Ping An shares pledged or used as collateral by CP Group

Targeted RRR cut: Small liquidity ease; more loosening needed

Roger Yuan Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. (+852)

Above expectations: better margin at GL; resilient perf. elsewhere

China: Automobiles. Data Update: Introducing 2015 EPS estimates. Equity Research. Changes and Implications

Long-term erosion of underlying rents offset by acquisitions; Sell

China trip takeaways: TD, overseas demand are focal points in 2013

Coal prices: April NDRC benchmark prices show further weakness

Jeffrey Currie Goldman, Sachs & Co

Above expectations: Balancing act to attain higher recurring income

Data Update: Updating for 3Q16 sales - Pou Sheng and Yue Yuen

Down to Neutral following outperformance

Meeting with management continue to buy ahead of NT catalysts

Property investment and new starts growth weak in Jan-Feb 2014

GS Global ECS Credit Strategy Research. March 31, Alberto Gallo, CFA Goldman, Sachs & Co

Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme Issues for investors

SINA Corporation (L) Lower Weibo value, target price on revised methodology; still Neutral COMPANY UPDATE. Neutral. Equity Research.

PICC P&C to acquire a 24.7% stake in PICC Health

Slack and Monetary Policy

The Lasting Effects of Uncertainty

Economic Outlook Too Much of a Good Thing

Contextualizing the potential impact of natural catastrophes

Credit crunch is near-term bearish, long-term bullish. David Greely Goldman Sachs & Co

What do Chow Sang Sang/Hengdeli results tell us about HK retail?

Italy: Banks. Fine tuning estimates ahead of 3Q10 results. Positive trend in NII and margins near term

Roaring Louder (23 24 June)

Still positive post outperformance; 12m PT to 96, remain Buy

1Q16 retail sales point to softer core brand momentum

Wireless telecoms: The end of growth?

Coal: Potential resumption of production control likely a non-event

China: Automobiles Autoshow: Smaller luxury, expanding middle, rising local brands. Equity Research

Realization of tariff cuts should help lift stock overhang; positive

Revisiting Staples P/E under China s new normal growth outlook

A key milestone in defense reform; AVIC injects assets into Chengfei

Europe Telecom Services

Downgrading to Sell as structural issues begin to weigh on growth

Americas: Transportation. 3Q Preview: Low earnings expectations; remain defensive for now. Equity Research

Americas: Managed Care. 10 years of health reform. We have a published a new 10-year industry model

Global laser update: higher power/microelectronics trending, R&D spends strong; Buy Han s

Key catalysts in 3Q16 to drive re-accelerating growth; reiterate Buy

March car market +13.6% yoy; we see Japanese brands recovering but pricing risk remains

Measuring the TBTF effect on bond pricing: Supplemental data

SH-HK Connect (Part 3): The quant perspective

Transforming into O2O marketing; execution is key; Buy

Yubin Fu Goldman Sachs International+ 44(20)

In line with expectation: Some good progress but still early

Rmb is back in the hot seat

Hong Kong: Telecom Services

Developing Domestic Capital Markets to Finance Innovation Capacity in China and India

View from the market Jahangir Aziz

BUY. Suprajit Engineering (SEL) Automobiles

China A-share strategy: What to do while awaiting a tailwind

Shenhua Reuters: 1088.HK, Bloomberg: 1088 HK; YCM Reuters: 1171.HK, Bloomberg: 1171 HK

Global Themes and Risks

3QFY09 revenues in line but adjusted margins beat KIE. No changes in estimates for FY E

Video March 1, StratTV at the TMT Conference. Watch the video: Related Research

A snapshot of the life of an applied economist

China property weekly trend: Vol rose and inventory declined; land sales contracted

DBIQ Update DBLCI - OY Roll Report - January 2008

Company Report. TCL Comm (2618 HK) Strong FY15E ahead backed by solid product roadmap in smartphone/wearables/apps/cloud; Reiterate BUY BUY

China Oriental. Overweight HK$ January 2007 Price Target: HK$2.69. Attractive valuations

Asia Equity Strategy Research Analysts Sakthi Siva

Chow Sang Sang (116 HK)

Macau trip takeaway: GGR momentum remained solid during CNY

Silicon Works (108320)

Anta Sports (2020 HK)

Europe Energy: Oil - Refining

This research has been prepared by Merrill Lynch as part of its services to its clients, and is intended to be used only by those clients when

Jim O Neill Managing Director Head of Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

Luk Fook (590 HK) Hold Target price: HK$ Downgrade to Hold on more challenging HK & Macau market outlook. Equity Research Consumer Discretionary

China TCM (570 HK) Buy (maintained) Target price: HK$ H17 earnings beat, 2017 growth guidance reaffirmed; TP raised to HK$5.

Luk Fook (590 HK) Hold (maintained) Target price: HK$ In line results, 1QFY17 remains weak. Equity Research Consumer Discretionary.

Pico Far East Holdings Limited

Asia Equity Strategy Research Analysts Sakthi Siva

Kingsoft (3888 HK) Buy (maintained) Target price: HK$ Q16 results in line, renewed growth outlook; maintain Buy with target price of HK$20.

CRRC (1766 HK) Accumulate (maintained) Target price: HK$8.20. Weak 1H17 results, but management s optimistic view on EMU orders eases market concern

Globe Union Industrial Corp

Luk Fook (590 HK) Hold (downgraded) Target price: HK$ HFY18 results beat, but downgrade from Accumulate to Hold on rich valuation

BUY SREI (SREI) Banks/Financial Institutions

Chart 2: Fixed Asset Investment (FAI) Year-over-year % change, 3MMA. Chart 1: China Real GDP Growth 12% QoQ Annualized 70% 10% Infrastructure 50%

Silicon Works (108320)

Transcription:

EARNINGS REVIEW Buy In line with expectations: Still waiting for a margin recovery What surprised us ZTE reported 1H12 revenue/gpm/opm/net income of Rmb42.6bn/24.6%/ 2.9%/Rmb245mn, vs. our estimates of Rmb42.6bn/26.7%/2.6%/Rmb284mn, respectively. Positives: 1) Operating cash flow improved from -Rmb6.2bn in 1H11 to -Rmb3.6bn in 1H12 due to decreasing A/R days. ZTE expects operating cash flow to turn positive in 2012 from -Rmb3.7bn in 2011; 2) total revenue increased 15.2% yoy driven by 27.0% and 33.8% yoy growth of terminal and other (WLAN, video, etc.) businesses. ZTE maintained its revenue growth outlook of 15-20% yoy in 2012; 3) Opex ratio declined from 28.0% in 1H11 to 25.8% in 1H12, showing effective cost control; and 4) ZTE expects financial costs to decrease slightly yoy in 2012. Negatives: 1) We estimate network and terminal GPM declined from 32.4% and 17.9% in 1Q12 to 27.3% and 15.6% in 2Q12 due to inventory write-offs and poor geographical mix. ZTE expects terminal GPM to remain stable and equipment GPM to improve in 2H12. 2) 2Q12 network revenue rose only 1.3% yoy due to a 21.7% yoy decline in the high-margin Africa business. What to do with the stock We believe ZTE s business is slowly turning around, as shown by its improving cash flow and opex. However, its GPM recovery has been choppy and slower than our expectations. We view ZTE s results as slightly negative and cut our EPS estimates by 4.5%-9.5% for 2012E-2014E on lower margins. Accordingly, we reduce our 12m TP from HK$22 to HK$20 (A-share TP from Rmb17.3 to Rmb16) based on 13X NTM P/E (from 14X due to slower-than-expected margin recovery). We maintain our Buy rating. Risk: muted network GPM recovery. ZTE 1H12 results at a glance ZTE estimates 1H12 Act. 1H12 GS e Diff. Revenue (Rmb mn) 42,642 42,605 0.1% Operating margin 2.9% 2.6% 29bps EPS (Rmb) 0.07 0.08-14.9% Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates. Investment Profile Low Growth Returns * Multiple Volatility Equity Research Percentile 20th 40th 60th 80th 100th Asia Pacific Technology Peer Group Average High Growth Returns * Multiple Volatility * Returns = Return on Capital For a complete description of the investment profile measures please refer to the disclosure section of this document. Key data Current Price (HK$) 11.32 12 month price target (HK$) 20.00 000063.SZ Price (Rmb) 11.20 000063.SZ 12 month price target (Rmb) 16.00 Market cap (HK$ mn / US$ mn) 37,618.1 / 4,849.6 Foreign ownership (%) -- 12/11 12/12E 12/13E 12/14E EPS (Rmb) New 0.61 0.83 1.14 1.36 EPS revision (%) 0.0 (9.5) (6.8) (4.5) EPS growth (%) (37.9) 36.7 37.6 18.5 EPS (dil) (Rmb) New 0.61 0.83 1.14 1.35 P/E (X) 15.3 11.2 8.1 6.8 P/B (X) 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 EV/EBITDA (X) 15.8 7.1 6.2 5.7 Dividend yield (%) 2.2 3.0 4.1 4.9 ROE (%) 8.7 11.1 13.7 14.6 CROCI (%) 10.5 3.2 10.4 11.8 Price performance chart 26 24 22 20 18 16 14 12 10 Aug-11 Nov-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 11,500 11,000 10,500 10,000 9,500 9,000 8,500 8,000 7,500 ZTE Corporation (H) (L) MSCI Hong Kong (R) INVESTMENT LIST MEMBERSHIP Asia Pacific Buy List Share price performance (%) 3 month 6 month 12 month Absolute (27.4) (52.1) (36.0) Rel. to MSCI Hong Kong (32.6) (49.9) (38.1) Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates, FactSet. Price as of 8/22/2012 close. Coverage View: Neutral Donald Lu, Ph.D Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies +86(10)6627-3123 donald.lu@ghsl.cn Beijing Gao Hua Securities Company Limited Lingling Hu +86(10)6627-3520 lingling.hu@ghsl.cn Beijing Gao Hua Securities Company Limited Sam Li +86(10)6627-3326 sam.z.li@ghsl.cn Beijing Gao Hua Securities Company Limited covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Analysts employed by non- US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S. The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. Global Investment Research

ZTE Corporation (H): Summary Financials Profit model (Rmb mn) 12/11 12/12E 12/13E 12/14E Balance sheet (Rmb mn) 12/11 12/12E 12/13E 12/14E Total revenue 86,254.5 102,122.2 125,320.7 144,905.7 Cash & equivalents 20,662.1 23,316.5 22,067.8 22,444.4 Cost of goods sold (62,086.4) (74,732.9) (90,046.1) (104,104.3) Accounts receivable 50,337.3 61,206.3 75,741.8 87,459.3 SG&A (13,717.8) (15,640.4) (18,942.1) (21,757.5) Inventory 14,988.4 18,311.8 22,321.1 25,765.4 R&D (8,492.6) (9,580.9) (11,631.5) (13,304.4) Other current assets 924.4 1,039.4 1,286.3 1,485.2 Other operating profit/(expense) 1,696.7 2,783.6 1,819.8 1,901.0 Total current assets 86,912.2 103,874.0 121,417.0 137,154.2 ESO expense -- -- -- -- Net PP&E 8,646.0 8,762.5 10,000.7 11,201.1 EBITDA 5,078.5 6,391.1 8,188.6 9,572.2 Net intangibles 2,239.6 2,726.2 3,132.9 3,430.2 Depreciation & amortization (1,424.2) (1,439.5) (1,667.7) (1,931.8) Total investments 1,334.1 3,113.8 3,113.8 3,113.8 EBIT 3,654.4 4,951.6 6,520.9 7,640.4 Other long-term assets 8,652.1 10,510.0 13,006.0 15,018.0 Interest income 283.6 135.6 124.2 116.3 Total assets 107,784.1 128,986.4 150,670.3 169,917.3 Interest expense (1,374.2) (1,123.0) (1,209.4) (1,335.6) Income/(loss) from uncons. subs. 71.3 (26.4) (37.0) (37.0) Accounts payable 49,168.9 60,071.3 73,223.6 84,522.5 Others 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Short-term debt 15,666.2 19,048.9 23,572.7 27,219.4 Pretax profits 2,635.1 3,937.7 5,398.8 6,384.1 Other current liabilities 1,055.6 2,276.0 2,816.5 3,252.2 Income tax (392.0) (799.1) (1,122.6) (1,325.1) Total current liabilities 65,890.8 81,396.2 99,612.8 114,994.1 Minorities (182.9) (288.0) (352.8) (408.0) Long-term debt 14,984.7 17,565.5 17,565.5 17,565.5 Net income pre-preferred dividends 2,060.2 2,850.6 3,923.4 4,651.0 Other long-term liabilities 619.9 592.1 732.7 846.1 Preferred dividends 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total long-term liabilities 15,604.5 18,157.6 18,298.2 18,411.6 Net income (pre-exceptionals) 2,060.2 2,850.6 3,923.4 4,651.0 Total liabilities 81,495.3 99,553.8 117,911.0 133,405.7 Post-tax exceptionals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net income 2,060.2 2,850.6 3,923.4 4,651.0 Preferred shares 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total common equity 24,231.7 27,109.3 30,083.2 33,427.5 EPS (basic, pre-except) (Rmb) 0.61 0.83 1.14 1.36 Minority interest 2,057.1 2,323.3 2,676.1 3,084.1 EPS (basic, post-except) (Rmb) 0.61 0.83 1.14 1.36 EPS (diluted, post-except) (Rmb) 0.61 0.83 1.14 1.35 Total liabilities & equity 107,784.1 128,986.4 150,670.3 169,917.3 EPS excl. ESO expense (basic) (Rmb) -- -- -- -- EPS excl. ESO expense (dil.) (Rmb) -- -- -- -- BVPS (Rmb) 7.13 7.90 8.77 9.74 DPS (Rmb) 0.20 0.28 0.38 0.45 Dividend payout ratio (%) 33.3 33.3 33.3 33.3 Free cash flow yield (%) (8.6) (15.1) (11.1) (2.8) Ratios 12/11 12/12E 12/13E 12/14E Growth & margins (%) 12/11 12/12E 12/13E 12/14E CROCI (%) 10.5 3.2 10.4 11.8 Sales growth 22.8 18.4 22.7 15.6 ROE (%) 8.7 11.1 13.7 14.6 EBITDA growth (15.6) 25.8 28.1 16.9 ROA (%) 2.1 2.4 2.8 2.9 EBIT growth (26.1) 35.5 31.7 17.2 ROACE (%) 9.4 9.9 10.9 10.9 Net income growth (36.6) 38.4 37.6 18.5 Inventory days 79.6 81.3 82.4 84.3 EPS growth (37.9) 36.7 37.6 18.5 Receivables days 189.6 199.3 199.4 205.5 Gross margin 28.0 26.8 28.1 28.2 Payable days 255.0 266.8 270.2 276.5 EBITDA margin 5.9 6.3 6.5 6.6 Net debt/equity (%) 38.0 45.2 58.2 61.2 EBIT margin 4.2 4.8 5.2 5.3 Interest cover - EBIT (X) 3.4 5.0 6.0 6.3 Cash flow statement (Rmb mn) 12/11 12/12E 12/13E 12/14E Valuation 12/11 12/12E 12/13E 12/14E Net income pre-preferred dividends 2,060.2 2,850.6 3,923.4 4,651.0 D&A add-back 1,424.2 1,439.5 1,667.7 1,931.8 P/E (analyst) (X) 15.3 11.2 8.1 6.8 Minorities interests add-back 182.9 288.0 352.8 408.0 P/B (X) 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 Net (inc)/dec working capital (6,123.0) (3,290.0) (5,392.5) (3,862.8) EV/EBITDA (X) 15.8 7.1 6.2 5.7 Other operating cash flow (1,199.6) (4,150.4) (2,061.7) (1,662.0) EV/GCI (X) 2.3 1.1 1.0 1.0 Cash flow from operations (3,655.3) (2,862.2) (1,510.3) 1,466.1 Dividend yield (%) 2.2 3.0 4.1 4.9 Capital expenditures (2,548.5) (2,310.8) (2,329.2) (2,439.7) Acquisitions (27.6) 0.0 0.0 0.0 Divestitures 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Others (1,033.9) (528.1) (983.4) (989.8) Cash flow from investments (3,610.1) (2,838.9) (3,312.7) (3,429.5) Dividends paid (common & pref) (841.3) (686.2) (949.5) (1,306.8) Inc/(dec) in debt 13,427.8 5,963.5 4,523.8 3,646.7 Common stock issuance (repurchase) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other financing cash flows 435.9 3,078.2 0.0 0.0 Cash flow from financing 13,022.4 8,355.5 3,574.3 2,340.0 Note: Last actual year may include reported and estimated data. Total cash flow 5,757.0 2,654.4 (1,248.6) 376.5 Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates. Analyst Contributors Donald Lu, Ph.D donald.lu@ghsl.cn Lingling Hu lingling.hu@ghsl.cn Sam Li sam.z.li@ghsl.cn Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 2

Exhibit 1: We cut our EPS estimates by 4.5%-9.5% in 2012E-2014E to reflect slower-thanexpected GPM recovery ZTE estimates revisions ZTE estimates 2012E 2013E 2014E New Old Diff. New Old Diff. New Old Diff. Revenue (Rmb mn) 102,122 102,476-0.3% 125,321 125,804-0.4% 144,906 144,907 0.0% Gross margin 26.8% 28.5% -172bps 28.1% 29.0% -82bps 28.2% 29.0% -80bps Operating margin 5.0% 5.2% -17bps 5.3% 5.5% -17bps 5.4% 5.4% -8bps Net margin 2.8% 3.0% -25bps 3.1% 3.3% -18bps 3.2% 3.3% -11bps Net profit 2,851 3,114-8.5% 3,923 4,161-5.7% 4,651 4,815-3.4% EPS (Rmb) 0.83 0.92-9.5% 1.14 1.23-6.8% 1.36 1.42-4.5% Source: Goldman Sachs Research estimates. Other disclosures Research written by Donald Lu on companies listed in Taiwan is written by him in his capacity as consultant to Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.. Any other research is written in his capacity as employee of Beijing Gao Hua Securities Company Limited. Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 3

Disclosure Appendix Reg AC We, Donald Lu, Ph.D, Lingling Hu and Sam Li, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect our personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. Investment Profile The Goldman Sachs Investment Profile provides investment context for a security by comparing key attributes of that security to its peer group and market. The four key attributes depicted are: growth, returns, multiple and volatility. Growth, returns and multiple are indexed based on composites of several methodologies to determine the stocks percentile ranking within the region's coverage universe. The precise calculation of each metric may vary depending on the fiscal year, industry and region but the standard approach is as follows: Growth is a composite of next year's estimate over current year's estimate, e.g. EPS, EBITDA, Revenue. Return is a year one prospective aggregate of various return on capital measures, e.g. CROCI, ROACE, and ROE. Multiple is a composite of one-year forward valuation ratios, e.g. P/E, dividend yield, EV/FCF, EV/EBITDA, EV/DACF, Price/Book. Volatility is measured as trailing twelve-month volatility adjusted for dividends. Quantum Quantum is Goldman Sachs' proprietary database providing access to detailed financial statement histories, forecasts and ratios. It can be used for in-depth analysis of a single company, or to make comparisons between companies in different sectors and markets. GS SUSTAIN GS SUSTAIN is a global investment strategy aimed at long-term, long-only performance with a low turnover of ideas. The GS SUSTAIN focus list includes leaders our analysis shows to be well positioned to deliver long term outperformance through sustained competitive advantage and superior returns on capital relative to their global industry peers. Leaders are identified based on quantifiable analysis of three aspects of corporate performance: cash return on cash invested, industry positioning and management quality (the effectiveness of companies' management of the environmental, social and governance issues facing their industry). Disclosures Coverage group(s) of stocks by primary analyst(s) Donald Lu, Ph.D: China Technology, China Telecoms. Lingling Hu: China Clean Energy, China Technology. Sam Li: China Technology. China Clean Energy: Beijing Jingyuntong Technology Co., Foshan Lighting & Electrical, GCL-Poly Energy Holdings, JA Solar Holdings, NVC Lighting Holding, Sungrow Power Supply, Suntech Power, Trina Solar, Yingli Green Energy, Zhejiang Jinggong Science & Technology Co., Zhejiang Yankon Group. China Technology: Accelink Technologies, Anhui USTC iflytek, AsiaInfo-Linkage, AutoNavi Holdings Ltd., Beijing Bewinner Communications, Beijing Ultrapower Software, Comba Telecom Systems, Fiberhome Telecom Tech, GoerTek Inc., Hunan Talkweb Information System, MStar Semiconductor, Mediatek, Nationz Technologies, NavInfo Co, Shenzhen Tat Fook Technology, Sunsea Telecommunications, TSMC, TSMC (ADR), United Microelectronics (ADR), United Microelectronics Corp., ZTE Corporation (A), ZTE Corporation (H). China Telecoms: China Communication Services, China Mobile (HK), China Mobile (HK) (ADR), China Telecom, China Telecom (ADR), China Unicom, China Unicom (ADS), China United Network Communications. Company-specific regulatory disclosures The following disclosures relate to relationships between The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (with its affiliates, "Goldman Sachs") and companies covered by the Global Investment Research Division of Goldman Sachs and referred to in this research. Goldman Sachs expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services in the next 3 months: ZTE Corporation (A) (Rmb11.20) and ZTE Corporation (H) (HK$11.32) Goldman Sachs had an investment banking services client relationship during the past 12 months with: ZTE Corporation (A) (Rmb11.20) and ZTE Corporation (H) (HK$11.32) Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 4

Goldman Sachs makes a market in the securities or derivatives thereof: ZTE Corporation (A) (Rmb11.20) and ZTE Corporation (H) (HK$11.32) Distribution of ratings/investment banking relationships Goldman Sachs Investment Research global coverage universe Rating Distribution Investment Banking Relationships Buy Hold Sell Buy Hold Sell Global 31% 55% 14% 48% 41% 35% As of July 1, 2012, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research had investment ratings on 3,480 equity securities. Goldman Sachs assigns stocks as Buys and Sells on various regional Investment Lists; stocks not so assigned are deemed Neutral. Such assignments equate to Buy, Hold and Sell for the purposes of the above disclosure required by NASD/NYSE rules. See 'Ratings, Coverage groups and views and related definitions' below. Price target and rating history chart(s) Stock Price Currency : Hong Kong Dollar ZTE Corporation (A) (000063.SZ) Stock Price Currency : Chinese Renminbi Stock Price Goldman Sachs rating and stock price target history 35 22.78 26.11 29 30 19.44 25 24 25 30.83 20 32.5 32 15 24.17 28.33 28 10 Sep 9 N B A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: Goldman Sachs Investment Research for ratings and price targets; FactSet closing prices as of 6/30/2012. Rating Covered by Donald Lu, Ph.D Price target 12,000 11,000 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 Index Price Stock Price Goldman Sachs rating and stock price target history 30 22.5 22.78 25 19.44 23 22 19 20 28.33 15 24.44 26.67 28 23.33 10 Sep 9 N B A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: Goldman Sachs Investment Research for ratings and price targets; FactSet closing prices as of 6/30/2012. Rating Covered by Donald Lu, Ph.D Price target 1,600 1,500 1,400 1,300 1,200 1,100 1,000 900 800 Index Price Price target at removal Not covered by current analyst Price target at removal Not covered by current analyst MSCI Hong Kong Shenzhen A Index The price targets show n should be considered in the context of all prior published Goldman Sachs research, w hich may or may not have included price targets, as w ell as developments relating to the company, its industry and financial markets. The price targets show n should be considered in the context of all prior published Goldman Sachs research, w hich may or may not have included price targets, as w ell as developments relating to the company, its industry and financial markets. Regulatory disclosures Disclosures required by United States laws and regulations See company-specific regulatory disclosures above for any of the following disclosures required as to companies referred to in this report: manager or co-manager in a pending transaction; 1% or other ownership; compensation for certain services; types of client relationships; managed/comanaged public offerings in prior periods; directorships; for equity securities, market making and/or specialist role. Goldman Sachs usually makes a market in fixed income securities of issuers discussed in this report and usually deals as a principal in these securities. The following are additional required disclosures: Ownership and material conflicts of interest: Goldman Sachs policy prohibits its analysts, professionals reporting to analysts and members of their households from owning securities of any company in the analyst's area of coverage. Analyst compensation: Analysts are paid in part based on the profitability of Goldman Sachs, which includes investment banking revenues. Analyst as officer or director: Goldman Sachs policy prohibits its analysts, persons reporting to analysts or members of their households from serving as an officer, director, advisory board member or employee of any company in the analyst's area of coverage. Non-U.S. Analysts: Non-U.S. analysts may not be associated persons of Goldman, Sachs & Co. and therefore may not be subject to NASD Rule 2711/NYSE Rules 472 restrictions on communications with subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by the analysts. Distribution of ratings: See the distribution of ratings disclosure above. Price chart: See the price chart, with changes of ratings and price targets in prior periods, above, or, if electronic format or if with respect to multiple companies which are the subject of this report, on the Goldman Sachs website at http://www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Additional disclosures required under the laws and regulations of jurisdictions other than the United States The following disclosures are those required by the jurisdiction indicated, except to the extent already made above pursuant to United States laws and regulations. Australia: Goldman Sachs Australia Pty Ltd and its affiliates are not authorised deposit-taking institutions (as that term is defined in the Banking Act 1959 (Cth)) in Australia and do not provide banking services, nor carry on a banking business, in Australia. This research, and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act, unless otherwise agreed by Goldman Sachs. Brazil: Disclosure information in relation to CVM Instruction 483 is available at http://www.gs.com/worldwide/brazil/area/gir/index.html. Where applicable, the Brazil-registered analyst primarily responsible for the content of this research report, as defined in Article 16 of CVM Instruction 483, is the first author named at the beginning of this report, unless indicated otherwise at the end of the text. Canada: Goldman, Sachs & Co. has approved of, and agreed to take responsibility for, this research in Canada if and to the extent it relates to equity securities of Canadian issuers. Analysts may conduct site visits but are prohibited from accepting payment or reimbursement by the company of travel expenses for such visits. Hong Kong: Further information on the securities of covered companies referred to in this research may be obtained on request from Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. India: Further information on the subject company or companies referred to in this research may be obtained from Goldman Sachs (India) Securities Private Limited; Japan: See below. Korea: Further information on the subject company or companies referred to in this research may be obtained from Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C., Seoul Branch. New Zealand: Goldman Sachs New Zealand Limited and its affiliates are neither "registered banks" nor "deposit takers" (as defined in the Reserve Bank of New Zealand Act 1989) in New Zealand. This research, and any access to it, is intended for "wholesale clients" (as defined in the Financial Advisers Act 2008) unless otherwise agreed by Goldman Sachs. Russia: Research reports distributed in the Russian Federation are not advertising as defined in the Russian legislation, but are information and analysis not having product promotion as their main purpose and do not provide appraisal within the meaning of the Russian legislation on appraisal activity. Singapore: Further information on the covered companies referred to in this research may be obtained from Goldman Sachs (Singapore) Pte. (Company Number: 198602165W). Taiwan: This material is for reference only and must not be reprinted without permission. Investors should carefully consider their own investment risk. Investment results are the responsibility of the individual investor. United Kingdom: Persons who would be categorized as retail clients in the United Kingdom, as such term is defined in the rules of the Financial Services Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 5

Authority, should read this research in conjunction with prior Goldman Sachs research on the covered companies referred to herein and should refer to the risk warnings that have been sent to them by Goldman Sachs International. A copy of these risks warnings, and a glossary of certain financial terms used in this report, are available from Goldman Sachs International on request. European Union: Disclosure information in relation to Article 4 (1) (d) and Article 6 (2) of the European Commission Directive 2003/126/EC is available at http://www.gs.com/disclosures/europeanpolicy.html which states the European Policy for Managing Conflicts of Interest in Connection with Investment Research. Japan: Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd. is a Financial Instrument Dealer under the Financial Instrument and Exchange Law, registered with the Kanto Financial Bureau (Registration No. 69), and is a member of Japan Securities Dealers Association (JSDA) and Financial Futures Association of Japan (FFAJ). Sales and purchase of equities are subject to commission pre-determined with clients plus consumption tax. See company-specific disclosures as to any applicable disclosures required by Japanese stock exchanges, the Japanese Securities Dealers Association or the Japanese Securities Finance Company. Ratings, coverage groups and views and related definitions Buy (B), Neutral (N), Sell (S) -Analysts recommend stocks as Buys or Sells for inclusion on various regional Investment Lists. Being assigned a Buy or Sell on an Investment List is determined by a stock's return potential relative to its coverage group as described below. Any stock not assigned as a Buy or a Sell on an Investment List is deemed Neutral. Each regional Investment Review Committee manages various regional Investment Lists to a global guideline of 25%-35% of stocks as Buy and 10%-15% of stocks as Sell; however, the distribution of Buys and Sells in any particular coverage group may vary as determined by the regional Investment Review Committee. Regional Conviction Buy and Sell lists represent investment recommendations focused on either the size of the potential return or the likelihood of the realization of the return. Return potential represents the price differential between the current share price and the price target expected during the time horizon associated with the price target. Price targets are required for all covered stocks. The return potential, price target and associated time horizon are stated in each report adding or reiterating an Investment List membership. Coverage groups and views: A list of all stocks in each coverage group is available by primary analyst, stock and coverage group at http://www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. The analyst assigns one of the following coverage views which represents the analyst's investment outlook on the coverage group relative to the group's historical fundamentals and/or valuation. Attractive (A). The investment outlook over the following 12 months is favorable relative to the coverage group's historical fundamentals and/or valuation. Neutral (N). The investment outlook over the following 12 months is neutral relative to the coverage group's historical fundamentals and/or valuation. Cautious (C). The investment outlook over the following 12 months is unfavorable relative to the coverage group's historical fundamentals and/or valuation. Not Rated (NR). The investment rating and target price have been removed pursuant to Goldman Sachs policy when Goldman Sachs is acting in an advisory capacity in a merger or strategic transaction involving this company and in certain other circumstances. Rating Suspended (RS). Goldman Sachs Research has suspended the investment rating and price target for this stock, because there is not a sufficient fundamental basis for determining, or there are legal, regulatory or policy constraints around publishing, an investment rating or target. The previous investment rating and price target, if any, are no longer in effect for this stock and should not be relied upon. Coverage Suspended (CS). Goldman Sachs has suspended coverage of this company. Not Covered (NC). Goldman Sachs does not cover this company. Not Available or Not Applicable (NA). The information is not available for display or is not applicable. Not Meaningful (NM). The information is not meaningful and is therefore excluded. Global product; distributing entities The Global Investment Research Division of Goldman Sachs produces and distributes research products for clients of Goldman Sachs on a global basis. Analysts based in Goldman Sachs offices around the world produce equity research on industries and companies, and research on macroeconomics, currencies, commodities and portfolio strategy. This research is disseminated in Australia by Goldman Sachs Australia Pty Ltd (ABN 21 006 797 897); in Brazil by Goldman Sachs do Brasil Corretora de Títulos e Valores Mobiliários S.A.; in Canada by Goldman, Sachs & Co. regarding Canadian equities and by Goldman, Sachs & Co. (all other research); in Hong Kong by Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.; in India by Goldman Sachs (India) Securities Private Ltd.; in Japan by Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd.; in the Republic of Korea by Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C., Seoul Branch; in New Zealand by Goldman Sachs New Zealand Limited; in Russia by OOO Goldman Sachs; in Singapore by Goldman Sachs (Singapore) Pte. (Company Number: 198602165W); and in the United States of America by Goldman, Sachs & Co. Goldman Sachs International has approved this research in connection with its distribution in the United Kingdom and European Union. European Union: Goldman Sachs International, authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Authority, has approved this research in connection with its distribution in the European Union and United Kingdom; Goldman Sachs AG, regulated by the Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht, may also distribute research in Germany. General disclosures This research is for our clients only. Other than disclosures relating to Goldman Sachs, this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. We seek to update our research as appropriate, but various regulations may prevent us from doing so. Other than certain industry reports published on a periodic basis, the large majority of reports are published at irregular intervals as appropriate in the analyst's judgment. Goldman Sachs conducts a global full-service, integrated investment banking, investment management, and brokerage business. We have investment banking and other business relationships with a substantial percentage of the companies covered by our Global Investment Research Division. Goldman, Sachs & Co., the United States broker dealer, is a member of SIPC (http://www.sipc.org). Our salespeople, traders, and other professionals may provide oral or written market commentary or trading strategies to our clients and our proprietary trading desks that reflect opinions that are contrary to the opinions expressed in this research. Our asset management area, our proprietary trading desks and investing businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations or views expressed in this research. The analysts named in this report may have from time to time discussed with our clients, including Goldman Sachs salespersons and traders, or may discuss in this report, trading strategies that reference catalysts or events that may have a near-term impact on the market price of the equity securities discussed in this report, which impact may be directionally counter to the analysts' published price target expectations for such stocks. Any such trading strategies are distinct from and do not affect the analysts' fundamental equity rating for such stocks, which rating reflects a stock's return potential relative to its coverage group as described herein. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, excluding equity and credit analysts, will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives, if any, referred to in this research. Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 6

This research is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Clients should consider whether any advice or recommendation in this research is suitable for their particular circumstances and, if appropriate, seek professional advice, including tax advice. The price and value of investments referred to in this research and the income from them may fluctuate. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Fluctuations in exchange rates could have adverse effects on the value or price of, or income derived from, certain investments. Certain transactions, including those involving futures, options, and other derivatives, give rise to substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. Investors should review current options disclosure documents which are available from Goldman Sachs sales representatives or at http://www.theocc.com/about/publications/character-risks.jsp. Transaction costs may be significant in option strategies calling for multiple purchase and sales of options such as spreads. Supporting documentation will be supplied upon request. In producing research reports, members of the Global Investment Research Division of Goldman Sachs Australia may attend site visits and other meetings hosted by the issuers the subject of its research reports. In some instances the costs of such site visits or meetings may be met in part or in whole by the issuers concerned if Goldman Sachs Australia considers it is appropriate and reasonable in the specific circumstances relating to the site visit or meeting. All research reports are disseminated and available to all clients simultaneously through electronic publication to our internal client websites. Not all research content is redistributed to our clients or available to third-party aggregators, nor is Goldman Sachs responsible for the redistribution of our research by third party aggregators. For all research available on a particular stock, please contact your sales representative or go to http://360.gs.com. Disclosure information is also available at http://www.gs.com/research/hedge.html or from Research Compliance, 200 West Street, New York, NY 10282. 2012 Goldman Sachs. No part of this material may be (i) copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or (ii) redistributed without the prior written consent of The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 7