The Economic Crisis A Report on Memphis Real Estate, the Mortgage Meltdown and the Impact on the Local Economy December 2, 2008 The FedEx Institute of Technology at The University of Memphis
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The Housing Crisis Together, our data offers a detailed and unique window on trends in the local real estate market, especially as it relates to the impact of the current poor real market conditions and the escalating mortgage and foreclosure crisis on local property values.
Key Positive Indicators in 2005 Shelby County 2005 No. of New Home Sales 3,700 $ Amount of New Home Sales $925 million* No. of New Home Permits 4,900 $ Amount of New Home Permits $875 million * * Record Level
Key Positive Indicators in 2005 (cont d) Shelby County 2005 No. of Existing Home Sales 19,900 $ Amount of Existing Home Sales $2.8 billion Average Loan To Value (All home sales at the time of sale) 86%
The Fall Off No. of Residential Sales Residential Sales Amount No. of New Home Permits $ Amount of New Home Permits 2005 2006 2007 2008 (Est.) Diff % 23,500 23,700 19,500 15,500-8,000-34% $3.7 billion $3.7 billion $3.0 billion $2.1 billion -$1.6 billion -43% 5,000 4,500 2,600 1,000-4,000-81% $873 million $819 million $487 million $224 million -$650 million -74%
The Fall Off (cont d) 2005 2006 2007 2008 (Est.) Diff % No. of Foreclosures 3,800 5,400 6,000 6,500 2,600 68% Avg. Tax Appraisal $86,000 $90,000 $99,000 $102,000 $15,100 17% No. of Bank Sales 3,400 4,100 5,000 5,800 2,400 71% Avg. Discount to Tax Appraisal -26% -23% -28% -37% -11% 42%
Number of New Home Permits 2001 to 2008 (Est.) 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 New home permits have fallen well below 2001 levels. Estimated - 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 (Est.)
$ Amount of New Home Sales 2001 to 2008 (Est.) $1,000,000,000 $900,000,000 $800,000,000 $700,000,000 $600,000,000 $500,000,000 $400,000,000 $300,000,000 $200,000,000 $100,000,000 $- New home sales fell $300 million from 2006 to 2007, a 32% decline. Estimated 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 (Est.)
$ Amount of Home Sales By Quarter - 2007 and 2008 (Est.) $1,000,000,000 $900,000,000 $800,000,000 $700,000,000 $600,000,000 $500,000,000 $400,000,000 $300,000,000 $200,000,000 $100,000,000 $- 2007 2008 The total amount of home sales fell nearly $200 million from Q1 2007 to Q4 2007, a 30% decline. Estimated Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
No. of Home Sales Involving Multiple Loans* 2001 to 2008 (Est.) 6,000 * Loans taken at time of sale. 5,000 4,000 3,000 Home sales involving multiple loans at the time of sale spiked in 2005 and 2006. In 2005, fully 25% of all home sales involved multiple loans. 2,000 1,000 - Estimated 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 (est)
No. of Bankruptcies 2002 to 2008 (Est.) 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 Estimated 10,000 5,000 - Bankruptcies dropped by nearly 50% from 2005 to 2006 as a result of changes in the bankruptcy laws. 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 (est)
No. of Foreclosures 2002 to 2008 (Est.) 7,000 6,000 Estimated 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 - The foreclosure rate shot up before the subprime fallout hit the news, in part because of changes in the bankruptcy laws. 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 (Est.)
$120,000 Average Appraised Value of Foreclosed Homes 2002 to 2008 (Est.) $110,000 $100,000 $90,000 The average tax appraised value of home foreclosures has risen nearly 20% since 2003. Estimated $80,000 $70,000 $60,000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 (Est.)
$ Amount of All Home Mortgages* 2001 to 2008 (Est.) $3,500,000,000 * Loans taken at time of sale. $3,000,000,000 $2,500,000,000 $2,000,000,000 $1,500,000,000 $1,000,000,000 $500,000,000 Home mortgages* are on track to fall nearly 45% from 2005 to present. Estimated $- 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 (est)
Bank vs. Non-Bank Sales Residential Sales Home sales by banks and trusts are on track to account for more than a third of residential sales in 2008.
$ Amount of Commercial Sales By Quarter - 2007 and 2008 (Est.) $1,000,000,000 $900,000,000 $800,000,000 $700,000,000 $600,000,000 $500,000,000 $400,000,000 $300,000,000 $200,000,000 $100,000,000 $- 2007 2008 The total amount of commercial sales fell nearly $600 million from Q1 2007 to Q4 2007, a 66% decline. Estimated Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
The Impact on Tax Revenue The total value of residential sales fell 20% in 2007 compared to 2006, with the average home sales price falling $5,000. Average sales prices may fall $18,000 by end of 2008. Shelby County is in the midst of a tax reappraisal right now, with new values finalized by May 2009. What s the potential impact of the housing declinces on tax revenue?
Foreclosures - Top 20 Zip Codes Full year, ranked by total number in 2008 Area 2005 2006 2007 2008 (Est.) 2005-2008 Increase % Increase 38127 - Frayser 400 593 565 587 187 47% 38128 - Raleigh 260 354 436 490 230 88% 38109 - Westwood 317 437 469 436 119 38% 38125 - Southeast Shelby County 182 252 337 404 222 122% 38118 - Oakhaven/Parkway Village 224 348 362 400 176 79% 38141 - Hickory Hill South 186 287 349 373 187 101% 38106 - West Person/Elvis Presley 235 310 301 331 96 41% 38115 - Hickory Hill North 171 263 332 305 134 78% 38111 - University 214 264 285 273 59 28% 38016 - Cordova-North 112 159 257 271 159 142% 38116 - Whitehaven 173 247 215 260 87 50% 38114 - Defense Depot 166 233 241 249 83 50% 38018 - Cordova-South 83 133 164 242 159 192% 38122 - Berclair 145 171 175 191 46 32% 38134 - Bartlett 102 128 146 189 87 85% 38107 - North Memphis 127 177 179 176 49 39% 38108 - Jackson/Farmville 154 208 211 174 20 13% 38135 - Bartlett/Ellendale 68 104 120 154 86 126% 38112 - Rhodes College 100 108 130 137 37 37% 38002 - Arlington 35 80 101 130 95 271%
Foreclosures - Top 20 Zip Codes Full year, ranked by greatest increase from 2005 to 2008. Area 2005 2006 2007 2008 (Est.) 2005-2008 Increase % Increase 38103 - Downtown 3 5 15 18 15 500% 38002 - Arlington 35 80 101 130 95 271% 38018 - Cordova-South 83 133 164 242 159 192% 38120 - River Oaks 6 15 11 17 11 183% 38016 - Cordova-North 112 159 257 271 159 142% 38017 - Collierville 37 76 74 84 47 127% 38135 - Bartlett/Ellendale 68 104 120 154 86 126% 38125 - Southeast Shelby County 182 252 337 404 222 122% 38141 - Hickory Hill South 186 287 349 373 187 101% 38126 - South Memphis 16 24 17 31 15 94% 38128 - Raleigh 260 354 436 490 230 88% 38119 - Quince/Ridgeway 38 63 58 71 33 87% 38134 - Bartlett 102 128 146 189 87 85% 38133 - Bartlett/Brunswick 61 67 95 111 50 82% 38118 - Oakhaven/Parkway Village 224 348 362 400 176 79% 38115 - Hickory Hill North 171 263 332 305 134 78% 38104 - Midtown 44 54 79 67 23 52% 38116 - Whitehaven 173 247 215 260 87 50% 38114 - Defense Depot 166 233 241 249 83 50% 38127 - Frayser 400 593 565 587 187 47%
One Neighborhood 2008 * Jan 1, 2008 to Nov 25, 2008
Another Neighborhood 2008 * Jan 1, 2008 to Nov 25, 2008
The Face of Foreclosure - Part 1 304 Red Oak, 38112 Bought in 2005 for $17,000 with a $49,000 rehab loan. 304 Red Oak, 38112 Sold to California investors in 2007 for $51,000 with a loan from Long Beach Mortgage Company, one of the nation s leading wholesale subprime lenders.
The Face of Foreclosure - Part 2 827 Green Oaks, 38017, Collierville Bought for $430,000 in 2006 using two loans, 100% financing. Foreclosed on by the bank in July 2008. Resold for $298,000 in September 2008.
Foreclosure Profile Jan. to Oct. 2008 No. of Residential Foreclosures 5,300 Avg. No. Years Property Owned 7.7 Avg. Loan to Value Ratio (At Time of Original Sale) Avg. Loan Amount (At Time of Original Sale) 101% $98,000 No. Resold Already 2,400 Avg. Difference (Original Sale Amount to Resale Amount) -$31,000
Foreclosures By Type of Loan* Jan. to Oct. 2008 * Loans taken at the time of sale.
Foreclosures By Lender - Top 20* Jan. to Oct. 2008 Original Lender No. of Loans % of All Foreclosures First Franklin Financial 233 5% Community Mortgage Corp 211 5% Long Beach Mortgage Co 172 4% Union Planters National Bank 123 3% Wells Fargo 117 3% Decision One Mortgage Co 116 3% Homecomings Financial Network 102 2% First Tennessee Bank 100 2% New Century Mtg Corp 97 2% WMC Mortgage Corp 91 2% Seller 82 2% Americas Wholesale Lendor 64 1% Argent Mortgage Co 63 1% Countrywide Home Loans 63 1% First Nlc Financial Svs 61 1% First Trust Mortgage 56 1% Southstar Funding 55 1% Option One Mtg Corp 52 1% First Commercial Mortgage 51 1% Bank Of America National 50 1% * Loans taken at the time of sale.
Cordova - Foreclosures Market Effect A single foreclosure can have a 1.3% negative effect on the value of every home within just 1/8th of a mile of the foreclosure. Multiple foreclosures create a compounding effect. 38018 - Cordova No. of Homes 11,500 Median Property Value $156,000 Total Appraised Value $2.1 billion 38018 - Cordova 2008 to date Last 2 Years No. of Foreclosured Homes 200 400 Cumulative Homes Effected: 1/8 Mile 13,800 25,600 Cumulative Homes Effected: 1/8-1/4 Mile 21,400 38,300 Potential Market Effect -$52 million -$97 million Possible Change in Tax Base @ 4% -$533,000 -$990,000
Foreclosure Effect One Home in Frayser
Foreclosure Effect One Home in Cordova
Foreclosure Discount - Top 20-2008 (Jan. to Oct.) Owner Name No. of FC $ Amt. Sold Discount vs. Appraisal % Deutsche Bank 755 $48,867,444 $28,656,556-37% Housing And Community Development 646 $30,298,543 $22,507,757-43% US Bank 522 $35,370,713 $20,180,887-36% Wells Fargo 402 $23,699,375 $16,082,825-40% Fannie Mae 389 $26,587,870 $12,337,780-32% Bank Of New York 368 $26,206,360 $14,734,540-36% HSBC Bank 244 $19,338,961 $9,659,839-33% Lasalle Bank 142 $8,922,793 $5,236,207-37% Veterans Affairs 138 $9,209,109 $4,594,491-33% Freddie Mac 128 $7,984,479 $4,025,421-34% Household Bank FSB 105 $6,698,936 $3,782,764-35% National Capital Properties Inc 69 $5,492,129 $2,546,271-32% CIT Group Consumer Finance Inc 63 $2,988,123 $2,487,077-45% JP Morgan Chase 60 $3,261,055 $2,502,645-43% First Horizon Home Loan Corp 58 $5,184,669 $1,693,131-25% Wachovia Bank 58 $4,591,336 $2,689,564-37% Tennessee Housing Development Agency 45 $1,582,865 $1,441,035-48% Nationstar Mortage LLC 45 $1,810,411 $1,624,089-47% Washington Mutual Bank 40 $3,251,137 $1,750,363-35% Suntrust Bank 39 $2,035,300 $1,349,500-40% Total 4,316 $273,381,608 $159,882,742-42%
Foreclosure Inventory - Top 20-2008 (As of Oct. 31.) Owner Name No. - Current Inventory $ Amt. - Current Inventory Deutsche Bank 481 $50,477,900 Housing And Community Development 379 $29,084,800 US Bank 307 $29,372,500 Wells Fargo 218 $20,923,600 Fannie Mae 522 $51,125,000 Bank Of New York 246 $28,465,900 HSBC Bank 136 $15,394,500 Lasalle Bank 109 $12,947,300 Veterans Affairs 123 $11,347,700 Freddie Mac 103 $9,869,400 Household Bank FSB 53 $6,238,600 National Capital Properties Inc 43 $4,262,900 CIT Group Consumer Finance Inc 62 $4,551,000 JP Morgan Chase 30 $3,735,100 First Horizon Home Loan Corp 39 $4,633,500 Wachovia Bank 36 $2,711,800 Tennessee Housing Development Agency 56 $3,862,900 Nationstar Mortage LLC 26 $2,011,000 Washington Mutual Bank 14 $1,244,900 Suntrust Bank 30 $4,096,900 Total 3,013 $296,357,200
Top 20 Sellers - 2003 (Jan. to Oct.) Seller No. of Sales Avg. Sale Amount Total Housing And Urban Development 979 $51,114 $50,040,969 Bowden Building Corp 285 $150,060 $42,767,014 Mark Matthews Development LLC 170 $164,025 $27,884,213 Reeves-Williams LLC 160 $148,367 $23,738,679 Perennial Building Group LLC 135 $133,265 $17,990,728 Summit Homes LLC 124 $166,160 $20,603,896 Chamberlain & McCreery Inc 118 $214,814 $25,348,031 Vintage Homes LLC 94 $220,898 $20,764,398 Veterans Affairs 89 $77,952 $6,937,697 Bank One 89 $51,373 $4,572,183 Citifinancial Mortgage Co Inc 85 $51,932 $4,414,205 Fannie Mae 84 $90,611 $7,611,288 Mark Matthews Development Co 79 $162,952 $12,873,213 Crossmann Communities Of Tenn 68 $145,877 $9,919,635 Bank Of New York 67 $57,722 $3,867,403 Reid Homes Inc 65 $216,868 $14,096,451 Island View LLC 61 $172,970 $10,551,161 Lenox Homes LLC 61 $163,796 $9,991,564 Hallmark Builders Inc 60 $232,595 $13,955,708 Kemmons Wilson Inc 59 $177,938 $10,498,335
Top 20 Sellers - 2008 (Jan. to Oct.) Seller No. of Sales Avg. Sale Amount Total Deutsche Bank National Trust 745 $63,943 $47,637,567 Housing And Urban Development 702 $44,547 $31,271,969 U S Bank National 550 $66,251 $36,438,308 Fannie Mae 372 $68,488 $25,462,702 Bank Of New York 358 $67,356 $24,113,304 Walls Fargo Bank 316 $59,286 $18,734,514 HSBC Bank 213 $79,268 $16,884,147 Lasalle Bank 141 $66,391 $9,361,093 Freddie Mac 133 $60,668 $8,068,779 Veterans Affairs 128 $66,517 $8,514,196 Household Financial Center Inc 104 $67,489 $7,018,900 H & J Properties LLC 93 $50,628 $4,708,450 Barry Watson Homes LLC 70 $159,424 $11,159,656 Compass Pointe Homes LLC 59 $146,590 $8,648,787 National City Bank 55 $81,875 $4,503,147 Citifinancial Mortgage Co Inc 51 $49,304 $2,514,518 Prudential Relocation Inc 50 $251,253 $12,562,640 Soleil Properties LLC 50 $46,540 $2,327,000 CIG Investments LLC 49 $54,697 $2,680,150 Philip Dooley 49 $57,675 $2,826,078
Commercial Real Estate - 2007 to 2008 Top 20 Categories - Oct. to Jan. Property Type No. of Sales Avg Sq Ft 2007 Year-To-Date 2008 Year-To-Date Percent Change Total Sales Avg Price Per Sq Ft No. of Sales Avg Sq Ft Total Sales Avg Price Per Sq Ft No. of Sales Avg Sq Ft Total Sales Avg Price Per Sq Ft Vacant land over 1 acre 190 13,300 $170,310,000 $113 148 - $89,723,000-22% -47% Warehouse 127 112,200 $400,855,000 $27 83 33,000 $68,529,000 $25-35% -71% -83% -7% Apartment 127 54,100 $383,554,000 $54 80 40,900 $130,963,000 $40-37% -24% -66% -26% Neighborhood single tenant 43 31,300 $25,357,000 $19 56 4,400 $13,207,000 $54 30% -86% -48% 187% Office Building 67 37,200 $190,729,000 $76 47 23,500 $71,984,000 $65-30% -37% -62% -15% Vacant land under 1 acre 22 - $4,173,000 32 - $4,420,000 45% 6% Neighborhood shopping center 35 16,100 $47,930,000 $85 31 23,000 $54,033,000 $76-11% 43% 13% -11% Office Condominium 45 4,600 $17,065,000 $81 26 2,100 $6,409,000 $118-42% -55% -62% 44% House converted to Commercial 26 2,900 $4,149,000 $55 25 2,300 $5,232,000 $91-4% -20% 26% 65% Garage (service type) 25 5,500 $7,244,000 $53 22 8,400 $9,889,000 $53-12% 54% 37% 1% Car wash 6 5,100 $8,017,000 $261 16 2,800 $7,181,000 $162 167% -46% -10% -38% Church 34 15,500 $18,342,000 $46 16 5,200 $11,292,000 $58-53% -67% -38% 26% Traditional Restaurant 23 5,200 $23,261,000 $193 15 5,100 $11,162,000 $147-35% -3% -52% -24% Daycare center 11 2,800 $1,633,000 $53 13 4,500 $2,435,000 $41 18% 63% 49% -23% Service Station 22 3,000 $15,828,000 $237 12 2,000 $5,615,000 $248-45% -33% -65% 5% Industrial or Manufacturing 16 58,100 $18,310,000 $14 9 69,500 $8,485,000 $14-44% 20% -54% -2% Car dealer 8 13,000 $4,419,000 $46 8 21,900 $16,371,000 $93 0% 69% 270% 103% Doctor s Office 20 10,500 $24,095,000 $115 8 9,900 $7,434,000 $94-60% -6% -69% -18% Motel or hotel 15 84,800 $134,787,000 $106 8 82,700 $46,872,000 $71-47% -2% -65% -33% Community or regional shopping 14 82,000 $130,353,000 $113 7 139,500 $70,687,000 $72-50% 70% -46% -36%
Commercial Lending* - 2007 to 2008 Top 20 Lenders - Oct. to Jan. Lender Name 2007 Year-To-Date 2008 Year-To-Date Percent Change No. of Mortgages Total $ Amount No. of Mortgages Total $ Amount % % Regions Bank 27 $21,800,000 22 $31,500,000-19% 44% Wells Fargo 3 $10,100,000 6 $19,100,000 100% 90% U S Bank National Association n/a n/a 3 $19,100,000 Wachovia Mortgage Fsb 10 $45,600,000 3 $13,200,000-70% -71% PNC Mortgage Corp n/a n/a 1 $12,800,000 Suntrust Bank 10 $13,800,000 11 $11,200,000 10% -18% Seller 59 $20,600,000 46 $10,800,000-22% -47% First Tennessee Bank 35 $22,700,000 30 $10,000,000-14% -56% GMAC Mortgage Corp n/a n/a 2 $9,700,000 Bancorpsouth Bank 15 $15,100,000 16 $8,800,000 7% -42% Banktennessee 4 $3,100,000 4 $5,800,000 0% 89% Sunshine Mortgage Corp 2 $2,500,000 3 $5,500,000 50% 117% Triumph Bank 2 $2,700,000 8 $5,400,000 300% 102% Commercial Bank & Trust 6 $2,100,000 7 $5,300,000 17% 150% First State Bank Of Arkansas 1 $800,000 4 $4,200,000 300% 444% Paragon National Bank 12 $8,500,000 5 $4,100,000-58% -51% Trust One Bank 8 $4,400,000 8 $3,900,000 0% -10% Landmark Community Bank 2 $1,300,000 3 $3,500,000 50% 182% Magnolia Fed Bank For Savings 3 $40,000,000 1 $3,500,000-67% -91% Boatman's Bank 3 $4,700,000 4 $3,300,000 33% -31% * Loans taken at time of sale.
Residential Lending* - 2007 to 2008 Top 20 Lenders - Oct. to Jan. Lender Name 2007 Year-To-Date 2008 Year-To-Date Percent Change No. of Mortgages Total $ Amount No. of Mortgages Total $ Amount % % Community Mortgage Corp 560 $94,600,000 570 $80,800,000 3% -15% Wells Fargo 690 $131,200,000 540 $93,700,000-22% -29% First Tennessee Bank 370 $77,200,000 530 $91,800,000 44% 19% Bank Of America National 860 $115,800,000 480 $69,600,000-45% -40% Suntrust Mortgage Inc 560 $93,700,000 430 $74,000,000-23% -21% Magna Bank 220 $39,300,000 390 $70,200,000 76% 79% Countrywide Home Loans 700 $130,100,000 330 $53,000,000-54% -59% Regions Bank 320 $58,300,000 270 $45,000,000-13% -23% Patriot Bank 280 $42,300,000 250 $38,200,000-11% -10% Bancorpsouth Bank 160 $34,500,000 230 $43,400,000 40% 26% Pulaski Mortgage Co n/a n/a 200 $32,500,000 Financial Federal Savings Bk 230 $59,500,000 170 $39,100,000-28% -34% Bartlett Mortgage 220 $35,400,000 170 $28,200,000-26% -20% Wachovia Mortgage Fsb 340 $44,000,000 140 $22,300,000-58% -49% Delta Trust Mortgage Corp 200 $31,000,000 130 $20,400,000-33% -34% Evolve Bank & Trust 110 $19,200,000 120 $15,800,000 10% -17% Seller 140 $8,600,000 110 $8,200,000-19% -5% Oakland Deposit Bank 110 $7,700,000 110 $9,400,000-7% 22% Homecomings Financial Network 410 $49,700,000 90 $10,700,000-78% -78% USAA Federal Savings 140 $28,100,000 80 $14,600,000-40% -48% * Loans taken at time of sale.
Where Are We Now Jan-Oct 2007 Jan-Oct 2008 Difference % Residential Lending (Loans at time of sale) No. of Mortgages 14,100 9,400-4,700-33% Avg. Mortgage Amount $154,700 $150,500 -$4,200-3% Total $2.1 billion $1.4 billion -$773 million -35% Existing Non-Bank Home Sales No. of Sales 11,200 7,500-3,700-33% Avg. Sale Amount $163,900 $160,000 -$3,900-2% Total $1.8 billion $1.2 billion -$636 million -35% New Home Sales No. of Sales 1,900 1,100-800 -42% Avg. Sale Amount $296,200 $276,100 -$20,100-7% Total $563 million $306 million -$257 million -46% Commercial Sales No. of Sales 1,000 700-300 -30% Total $1.9 billion $709 million -$1.3 billion -64%
Where Are We Going Jan-Oct 2007 Jan-Oct 2008 Difference % New Home Permits No. of Permits 2,400 800-1,600-67% Avg. Permit Amount $242,700 $238,300 -$4,400-2% Total Permit Amount $442 million $183 million -$259 million -59% Residential Foreclosures Final Foreclosures 5,000 5,500 500 10% Avg. Appraisal $97,300 $101,500 $4,200 4% No. of Banks Sales 4,300 5,000 700 16% Homes Starting Foreclosure 9,900 10,900 1,000 10% Ratio of Notices to Foreclosures 51% 50%
Where Are We Going (cont d) Jan-Oct 2007 Jan-Oct 2008 No. Sales Involving Multiple Loans* 1,973 254 % of All Loans* 14% 3% Loan to Value Ratio on Single Loans 89% 89% Jan-Oct 2007 Jan-Oct 2008 No. of FHA Loans* 800 2,500 % of All Residential Loans* 5% 30% Loan to Value Ratio 98% 98% Wells Fargo - No. of FHA Loans* 100 175 *Loans taken at time of sale.
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