Labor Market Information Outlook Bob Uhlenkott Idaho Department of Labor EMSI National Conference Coeur d Alene, Idaho October 1, 2011 1
Bureau of Labor Statistics Federal/State Cooperative Agreement Programs QCEW Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages CES Current Employment Statistics LAUS Local Area Unemployment Statistics OES Occupational and Employment Statistics MLS Mass Layoff Statistics 2
The REAL or TRUE Rate of Unemployment!
Alternative Measures for Labor Underutilization U-1, persons unemployed 15 weeks or longer, as a percent of the civilian labor force; U-2, job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs, as a percent of the civilian labor force; U-3, total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force (this is the definition used for the official unemployment rate); U-4, total unemployed plus discouraged workers, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus discouraged workers; U-5, total unemployed, plus discouraged workers, plus all other marginally attached workers, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers; and U-6, total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers.
Unemployment Rates - 2010 Annual Averages State Alternative Measures of Labor Underutilization U-1 U-2 U-3 U-4 U-5 U-6 United States 5.7 6 9.6 10.3 11.1 16.7 California 7.6 7.9 12.2 13 14 22.1 Idaho 4.1 5.4 9 9.3 9.9 16.3 Montana 3.4 5 7.7 8 8.6 14.9 Nevada 9.2 10.1 14.4 15.2 16 23.6 Oregon 6.7 7.8 11 11.6 12.5 20 Utah 4.2 4.8 8.2 8.8 9.5 15.1 Washington 5.4 5.9 10.2 10.7 11.7 18.4 Wyoming 3 3.6 6.6 7.1 7.6 11.5 Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Idaho Department of Labor - March 2011
Tale of the Tape for Idaho s Economy September - 2007 By Dennis Cauchon Which state has the fastest-growing economy? It's Idaho, thriving quietly! Idaho s total jobs peaked in June 2007 at 669,500. Total estimated jobs this June 2011 is around 610,000. Idaho s low occurred in January 2010 at 583,400. In the fall of 2009 we experienced record Year-Over-Year job of losses of almost 49,000. Total losses from the recession are just under 60,000.
Year-to-Year % Change 2.00% Idaho NonFarm Job Performance During Recessions 1.00% 0.00% -1.00% -2.00% -3.00% -4.00% -5.00% -6.00% -7.00% -8.00% Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Duration 1980-1982 1986 2001-2002 2008-2010 Forecast (Sep-09) Idaho Department of Labor - March 2011
Jan-07 Jun-07 Nov-07 Apr-08 Sep-08 Feb-09 Jul-09 Dec-09 May-10 Oct-10 Mar-11 Aug-11 Jan-12 Jun-12 Nov-12 Apr-13 Sep-13 Non-farm Jobs Simulated Economic Expansion 680,000 660,000 640,000 620,000 600,000 580,000 560,000 540,000 520,000 Y-O-Y Gains Pre-recession Levels until 2014
Jan-07 Jun-07 Nov-07 Apr-08 Sep-08 Feb-09 Jul-09 Dec-09 May-10 Oct-10 Mar-11 Aug-11 Jan-12 Jun-12 Nov-12 Apr-13 Sep-13 Non-farm Jobs Simulated Economic Expansion - Construction 60000 50000 40000 30000 Y-O-Y Gains 20000 Pre-recession levels at the earliest around 2025 10000 0
Idaho Department of Labor, Energy Business Scan
State Labor Market Information Improvement Grants (SGA/DFA PY08-17)
What s the big deal with green jobs?
Idaho Green Jobs Definition
Green Employment in Idaho 3% Data from 2010 Idaho Green Jobs Survey
What percent 2005, of 2007 employers and offer 2009 health insurance to their employees*? 2005 2007 2009 74% Offered 63% Offered 56% Offered *Full Time Employees Only Single Coverage
Non -Economic Coding Changes NAICS 2007 to 2012 Changes SOC 2010 Changes Educational Attainment Projections and Career Information Systems
Summary of the NAICS Changes The most recent NAICS change (NAICS 2012 revision) was implemented in the 1 st quarter 2011 QCEW data. The next set of changes shouldn t occur until 2017. The biggest shift between cells at the 4-digit level was in restaurants. Formerly restaurants were in 7221 (full-service) and 7222 (limited-service), but now all restaurants are in 7225. Another change of note was in electric power generation. Other electric power generation (221119) was broken out to distinguish solar, wind, geothermal, and biomass power generation. This change occurred at the 6-digit level, so it won t be obvious to most of our data users. However, it bears mentioning given the recent interest in Green data.
Summary of the SOC Changes 29-1111-Registered Nurses: which include advance practice nurses such as nurse practitioners, nurse specialists, midwives, anesthetists. 29-1141-Registered Nurse 29-1151-Nurse Anesthetists 29-1161-Nurse Midwives 29-1171-Nurse Practitioners Also in the 31-0000-Healthcare Support occupations, assistants and attendants were separated from orderlies and Phlebotomists essentially separating the care takers from the orderlies.
Educational Attainment Replaces single education/training category that was the most significant source of education or training. Now there will be three categories: Entry Level Education 11 typical categories Previous Work Experience - 5 years, 1 to 5 years, less than 1 year, or none. Typical On-the-Job Training internship/residency, apprenticeship, long-term, moderate-term, short-term OTJ training, or none.
What s Next in LMI? Partnerships and collaborations between Education and Labor. WICHE Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education SLDS Grants State Longitudinal Database Systems WDQI Workforce Data Quality Initiative Triangulation Partnerships
Frequency of the Jobs 37% 30% Percentage Growth In Jobs by Education 2008-2018 24.6% 24.8% Unskilled Skilled Professional 33% 15.8% 15.2% 8.4% 12.5% 20.1% 19.6% 18.1% 13.1% 20.8%
Inverse Relationship between Education and Unemployment
$20 Educations Return on Investment for Every Dollar Invested Idaho Department of Labor March 2011 $18 $16 $18 $14 $12 $10 $8 $10 $9 $10 $6 $4 $2 $0 Associate degree or Postsecondary vocational training Bachelor's degree Master's degree or Bachelor's or higher degree, plus work experience First professional degree or Doctoral degree
Percentage with a Bachelor's Degree or More (1990, 2000 and 2008) 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1990 2000 2008 ~ 25 years and older ~ Census Bureau and the Idaho Department of Labor, March 2011 Idaho CA MT NV OR UT WA WY U.S.
Percentage with a Bachelor's Degree or More (1990, 2000 and 2008) 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 It is estimated that 20.3% of the jobs in Idaho require a bachelor's degree or more. Direct gap comparisons require a perfect one-to-one match. 1990 2000 2008 ~ 25 years and older ~ Census Bureau and the Idaho Department of Labor, March 2011 Idaho CA MT NV OR UT WA WY U.S. Poly. (Idaho) Poly. (CA) Poly. (NV) Poly. (UT)
Demographic Shifts (Percentage Growth) Over the Next Decade in Idaho
State of Idaho Aging Work Force Age 2008 Population 2019 Population Change % Change Nat LQ 2008 Nat LQ % Change Under 5 years 123,751 133,732 9,981 8% 1.17 (1%) 5 to 9 years 114,519 132,456 17,937 16% 1.12 4% 10 to 14 years 109,467 128,495 19,028 17% 1.09 6% 15 to 19 years 115,347 117,646 2,299 2% 1.06 3% 20 to 24 years 113,813 109,317 (4,496) (4%) 1.06 (5%) 25 to 29 years 110,906 106,985 (3,921) (4%) 1.03 (10%) 30 to 34 years 95,328 113,207 17,879 19% 0.97 (2%) 35 to 39 years 97,020 112,397 15,377 16% 0.93 9% 40 to 44 years 94,390 102,494 8,104 9% 0.88 11% 45 to 49 years 103,974 92,026 (11,948) (11%) 0.91 0% 50 to 54 years 101,539 91,751 (9,788) (10%) 0.94 (7%) 55 to 59 years 91,158 96,834 5,676 6% 0.98 (11%) 60 to 64 years 74,521 96,017 21,496 29% 0.98 (5%) 65 to 69 years 55,785 86,890 31,105 56% 0.98 3% 70 to 74 years 41,763 68,923 27,160 65% 0.94 5% 75 to 79 years 33,593 47,096 13,503 40% 0.91 9% 80 to 84 years 26,100 29,954 3,854 15% 0.89 9% 85 years and o 24,531 27,913 3,382 14% 0.90 (2%) Source: EMSI Complete Employment - 1st Quarter 2011
North Central Idaho - Region 2 Aging Work Force Age 2008 Population 2019 Population Change % Change Nat LQ 2008t LQ % Change Under 5 years 5,852 6,023 171 3% 0.81 1% 5 to 9 years 5,433 6,014 581 11% 0.78 6% 10 to 14 years 5,664 6,084 420 7% 0.83 4% 15 to 19 years 8,616 7,773 (843) (10%) 1.17 (3%) 20 to 24 years 11,949 10,777 (1,172) (10%) 1.64 (4%) 25 to 29 years 6,609 6,357 (252) (4%) 0.90 (4%) 30 to 34 years 4,712 6,158 1,446 31% 0.71 14% 35 to 39 years 5,653 5,839 186 3% 0.79 4% 40 to 44 years 5,747 4,673 (1,074) (19%) 0.79 (11%) 45 to 49 years 7,057 5,504 (1,553) (22%) 0.91 (7%) 50 to 54 years 7,383 5,890 (1,493) (20%) 1.01 (13%) 55 to 59 years 6,824 6,888 64 1% 1.08 (10%) 60 to 64 years 5,854 7,435 1,581 27% 1.14 (1%) 65 to 69 years 4,688 6,824 2,136 46% 1.21 2% 70 to 74 years 3,612 5,682 2,070 57% 1.20 7% 75 to 79 years 3,106 4,182 1,076 35% 1.23 12% 80 to 84 years 2,529 2,848 319 13% 1.27 13% 85 years and o 2,558 2,985 427 17% 1.38 7% Source: EMSI Complete Employment - 1st Quarter 2011
Local Employment Dynamics Tool Quarterly Workforce Indicators (QWI) On the Map On The Map LED s online dynamic mapping and reporting tool Labor Segments Choose to analyze part of the workforce by age group, earnings or industry Jobs by distance, direction and destination Paired Area Analysis Constrain both sides of the home-work relationship Complex Geography Selection Allows you to add areas together or subtract them from each other to get complex study areas (Census Block based) Where do workers live or work? (including cross-state flows) Most recent version contains data through 2009 with new variables including race, ethnicity and educational attainment. These new variables are only available for 2009 and only appear as characteristics with the Area Profile and Area Comparison analyses. Uses Workforce and economic development, transportation planning and emergency management
2009 Wage Earnings by Meridian High School District Boundaries Workers who live in the Meridian High School boundaries earn significantly less income than other high school geographies in the Meridian School District. Only around 34 percent of the workers who reside in the Meridian High School Boundaries earn more than $40k per year as compared to 43 percent for resident who live within the Eagle High School boundaries. 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 34% 37% 40% 40% 43% 43% 39% 37% 37% 35% 24% 24% 23% 22% 23% MHS CHS MVHS RMHS EHS Less than $15k Between $15k and $40K More than $40K Source: United States Census Bureau, Local Employment Dynamics Program "ON The Map" Query - 2009 Data
Thanks for your time! Bob Uhlenkott Bob.uhlenkott@labor.idaho.gov 208.332.3570 ext-3217