AGRICULTURAL COMMODITY FUNDAMENTALS AND OUTLOOK

AGRICULTURAL COMMODITY FUNDAMENTALS AND OUTLOOK Lewis Hagedorn Agricultural Commodity Strategist, J.P. Morgan Chase Bank NA lewis.a.hagedorn@jpmorgan.com 212.834.846 A L L Y P R I V A T E A N D CONFIDENTIA STRICTL

This presentation was prepared exclusively for the benefit and internal use of the JPMorgan client to whom it is directly addressed and delivered (including such client s subsidiaries, the Company ) in order to assist the Company in evaluating, on a preliminary basis, the feasibility of a possible transaction or transactions and does not carry any right of publication or disclosure, in whole or in part, to any other party. This presentation is for discussion purposes only and is incomplete without reference to, and should be viewed solely in conjunction with, the oral briefing provided by JPMorgan. Neither this presentation nor any of its contents may be disclosed or used for any other purpose without the prior written consent of JPMorgan. NTALS AND OUT LOOK DITY FUNDAME L TURAL COMMO AGRICUL The information in this presentation is based upon any management forecasts supplied to us and reflects prevailing conditions and our views as of this date, all of which are accordingly subject to change. JPMorgan s opinions and estimates constitute JPMorgan s judgment and should be regarded as indicative, preliminary and for illustrative purposes only. In preparing this presentation, we have relied upon and assumed, without independent verification, the accuracy and completeness of all information available from public sources or which was provided to us by or on behalf of the Company or which h was otherwise reviewed by us. In addition, i our analyses are not and do not purport to be appraisals of the assets, stock, or business of the Company or any other entity. JPMorgan makes no representations as to the actual value which may be received in connection with a transaction nor the legal, tax or accounting effects of consummating a transaction. Unless expressly contemplated hereby, the information in this presentation does not take into account the effects of a possible transaction or transactions involving an actual or potential change of control, which may have significant valuation and other effects. Notwithstanding anything herein to the contrary, the Company and each of its employees, representatives or other agents may disclose to any and all persons, without limitation of any kind, the U.S. federal and state income tax treatment and the U.S. federal and state income tax structure of the transactions contemplated hereby and all materials of any kind (including opinions or other tax analyses) that are provided to the Company relating to such tax treatment and tax structure insofar as such treatment and/or structure relates to a U.S. federal or state income tax strategy provided to the Company by JPMorgan. JPMorgan s policies prohibit employees from offering, directly or indirectly, a favorable research rating or specific price target, or offering to change a rating or price target, to a subject company as consideration or inducement for the receipt of business or for compensation. JPMorgan also prohibits its research analysts from being compensated for involvement in investment banking transactions except to the extent that such participation is intended to benefit investors. JPMorgan is a marketing name for investment banking businesses of JPMorgan Chase & Co. and its subsidiaries worldwide. Securities, syndicated loan arranging, financial advisory and other investment banking activities are performed by a combination of J.P. Morgan Securities Inc., J.P. Morgan plc, J.P. Morgan Securities Ltd. and the appropriately licensed subsidiaries of JPMorgan Chase & Co. in Asia-Pacific, and lending, derivatives and other commercial banking activities are performed by JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. JPMorgan deal team members may be employees of any of the foregoing entities. This presentation does not constitute a commitment by any JPMorgan entity to underwrite, subscribe for or place any securities or to extend or arrange credit or to provide any other services.

Agenda Section 21 in Context 1 Corn 2 Wheat 3 AGRICUL TURAL COMMODITY FUNDAMENTALS AND OUT LOOK

Today, Agricultural Commodities Can Be Divided Into Two Groups Based on Fundamentals 1.Those Driven by Large Demand Corn Soybeans 2.Those Vulnerable to Supply Loss Wheat Sorghum 21 IN CONTEXT

Comparing the Growth of Global Consumption ' mmt Consumption (left ax is) 'mt 75, Stocks (right ax is) 25, 5, 2, 15, ' mt Consumption ' mt 75, Ending Stocks (right ax is) 25, 25, ` 1, 5, 5, 2, 15, CONTEXT 21 IN 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 Corn Consumption 95% Higher than 198 ' mt ' mt Consumption (left ax is) 25, 7, Stocks (right ax is) 6, 2, 5, 15, 1, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 Soybean Consumption 244% Higher than 198 Source: JPMorgan Soft Commodity Strategy, USDA/FAS. 1, 25, 5, 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 Wheat Consumption 45% Higher than 198

Corn Price History: Comparing 1972-25 with 26-Present US cents/bu 8 7 6 5 Spot Month Futures Price Annual Average Price 4 3 2 1 CONTEXT 1972 1974 1976 1978 198 1982 Source: JPMorgan Soft Commodity Strategy, Bloomberg. 1984 1986 1988 199 1992 1994 1996 1998 2 22 24 26 28 21 IN 21

Soybean Price History: Comparing 1972-25 with 26-Present US cents/bu 16 14 12 Spot Month Futures Price Annual Average Price 1 8 6 4 2 CONTEXT 1972 1974 1976 1978 198 1982 Source: JPMorgan Soft Commodity Strategy, Bloomberg. 1984 1986 1988 199 1992 1994 1996 1998 2 22 24 26 21 IN 28 21

Wheat Price History: 1972-Present US cents/bu 12 1 8 Spot Month Futures Price Annual Average Price 6 4 2 CONTEXT 1972 1974 1976 1978 198 Source: JPMorgan Soft Commodity Strategy, Bloomberg. 1982 1984 1986 1988 199 1992 1994 1996 1998 2 22 24 26 28 21 IN 21

Rising Standards of Living UN/FAO Sources of Dietary Consumption UN/FAO Protein & Fat Consumption 175 China 155 India United Kingdom 135 United States of America 115 World 95 75 55 35 15-5 1979-1981 1989-1991 21-23 1979-1981 1989-1991 21-23 Protein Fat CONTEXT 21 IN UN/FAO Shares of Dietary Components of Total Energy COUNTRIES Cereals Veg oils Sugar & Sweeteners Meat & Offals Roots and Tubers Milk, Eggs & Fish Fruits & Veg. Animal fats Pulses Others China 49.44 7.9 2.4 14.8 6. 4.5 7.3 1.5.4 5.8 India 58.8 9.7 9.7.9 1.9 4.9 3.8 2.3 4.5 3.5 United Kingdom 25. 12.4 11.5 13.4 6.4 12.6 5.1 4.2 1.4 8. USA 22.2 16.6 17.5 12. 2.8 12.6 5.2 3.1 1. 7.1 World 46.9 9.6 8.7 8. 5.2 6.5 5.4 2.2 2. 5.4 Source: JPMorgan Soft Commodity Strategy, UN/FAO, FAOStat

A Limited Supply Response US Acreage Allocated to Three Major Crops ' acres 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Soy beans Corn All Wheat Brazil Land Area by Use 1,, 8, 6, 4, 2, Forest area Agricultural l area Permanent meadow s and pastures 198 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 21 24 27 199 1993 1996 1999 22 25 21 IN CONTEXT Source: JPMorgan Soft Commodity Strategy, USDA/FAS, FAOSTAT.

A Limited Supply Response US v China Corn Yield Performance mt/ha 12 1 8 6 4 2 China US Effect of Lost Chinese Production Potential mt/ha 5% Yield Improv ement ' mt 25, Actual Production 18, Ending Stocks With Yield Improv ement Actual Ending Stocks 16, 2, 14, 15, 1, 198 1984 1988 1992 1996 2 24 2 22 24 26 5, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, US, Brazil, China Soybean Yields mt/ha 3. 2.5 US Brazil China US, Canada, Australia & China Wheat Yields mt/ha 5. 4. US Australia Canada China 2 2. 3. 2. CONTEXT 21 IN 1.5 1. 1981 1984 1987 199 1993 1996 1999 22 25 28 Source: JPMorgan Soft Commodity Strategy, USDA/FAS. 1.. 198 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 21 24 27

26-29 vs 21: What s Changed, What s the Same? 26-29 New/Changed Themes CONTEXT 21 IN Structural change these are not the same markets as in the past Remarkable domestic and international demand across agricultural commodities; the continued ascendancy of Asian demand Price-borne optimization and risk assessment. Low inventories across commodities limit full-fledged resource reallocation, increase importance of achieving optimum yields. Growing importance of the South American supply relief valve Growth of index and relative value long/short investment interest Wheat market production shortfalls left supplies low Corn, soybean and wheat supplies all appear comfortable Prices to remain well below highs from 28 with lower volatility Some reduction in investor interest in the sector Record large yields in US, South America have afforded larger than expected supply response, may mean less stress on acreage US, Global wheat market has moved to increasingly large surplus, allowing for (some) diversion of wheat acres into other crops Policy support for biofuel programs in US now appears more secure

Price Forecasts Grains & Oilseeds In $/bu. 29 1Q1 2Q1 3Q1 4Q1 21 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 211 Corn Spot Month Current Forecast* 3.85 4.5 3.95 3.9 3.94 4. 4.2 4.1 4.5 4.9 Actual To Date 375 3.75 375 3.75 CME Wheat Spot Month Current Forecast* 5.15 5.3 5.2 5.5 5.18 5.2 5.4 5.35 5.3 5.31 Actual To Date 5.33 5.7 Soybeans Spot Month Current Forecast* 9.65 9.15 9. 8.9 9.18 9.15 9.25 9.1 9. 9.13 Actual To Date 1.21 9.61 *Quarterly Average of Spot Month Futures. Source: JPMorgan Soft Commodity Strategy 21 IN CONTEXT

Agenda Section 21 in Context 1 Corn 2 Wheat 3 AGRICUL TURAL COMMODITY FUNDAMENTALS AND OUT LOOK

Corn Market Outlook Uncertainty t over 29 US crop size Need to encourage at least 2 mil acres of additional US plantings in 21 Profitable ethanol production margins Comfortable 29/1 US and global l inventories i Weak US and international feed demand Competitive global l feed wheat market More exportable supplies from South America CORN

US Corn Production in 29 29 was a record year, but by how much is not clear Record-large yields should not be counted on for future years US Corn Yields, 199 - Present Historical Yearly Corn Yield Variability bu/acre 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 1 '9 '92 '94 '96 '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 Source: JPMorgan Soft Commodity Strategy, USDA. bu/acre 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % -1% -2% -3% -4% Observ ed Baseline Forecast 1 y ears = a long interv al w ithout negativ e y ield ev ent '7 '75 '8 '85 '9 '95 ' '5 '1 '15 CORN

US Corn Plantings in 21 21 revenue potential appears better than last year for some producers, but is not as large as 27 Soybean prices are still encouraging production interest outside Corn Belt November Soybeans vs December Corn Futures Central IL Corn Revenue en e and Acreage 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.2 2. 1.8 5 Year Range 28 27 21 Sep Oct Nov Jan Feb Apr Source: JPMorgan Soft Commodity Strategy, USDA. 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.2 2 1. 8 ' acres $/acre 2, 4 1,9 35 1,8 3 1,7 25 1,6 1,5 1,4 1,3 1,2 1,1 1, 22 24 26 28 21 2 15 1 5-5 -1 27: More Corn Acres 28: More Soybean Acres CORN

US Ethanol: Production Profitable and Increasing Estimated Blending Economics E1 in Midwest.2 -.2 -.4 -.6 -.8 -.1 -.12 -.14 -.16 -.18 Profitable Jan 8 Jun 8 Nov 8 Apr 9 Sep 9 Feb 1 Estimated Iowa Production Profitability (Variable) cents/bu 25 2.5 2. 1.5 1..5. Source: Sep JPMorgan Nov Soft Commodity Jan Strategy, Mar USDA. May Jul Sep Nov Jan Ethanol Production and Draw mil gals 1,2 1, 8 Production Production Reqd to Meet USDA Forecast Production Reqd to Meet Mandate Begin Stocks + Production + Imports - End Stocks 6 4 2 Sep 5 Sep 6 Sep 7 Sep 8 Sep 9 CORN Source: JPMorgan Soft Commodity Strategy, EIA.

US Ethanol Demand: Policy Update Renewable Fuel Standard mandates: US Mandates Implied Corn Demand Conv entional Biofuels Adv anced Biofuels Cellulosic Biofuels Biodiesel Total RFS 28 9 9 29 1.5 6.6 5.5 11.11 21 12.95.1.65 12.95 211 12.6 1.35.25.8 13.95 212 13.2 2.5 1 15.2 213 13.8 2.75 1 16.55 214 14.4 3.75 1.75 18.15 215 15 5.5 3 2.5 222 15 21 16 36 mil gals Production Production Reqd to Meet Mandate 1,2 1, 8 6 4 2 25 27 29 211 213 215 Source: JPMorgan Soft Commodity Strategy, USDA. EPA Ruling on Higher Blend Rates CORN

US Corn Balance Sheet J.P. Morgan Forecast 23/4 24/5 25/6 26/7 27/8 28/9* 29/1* 29/1 21/11 Beginning Stocks (M bu) 1,87 958 2,114 1,967 1,34 1,624 1,673 1,672 1,63 Planted Acreage (M. acres) 78.6 8.93 81.76 78.33 93.5 86. 86.5 86.5 89.56 Harv ested Acreage (M. acres) 7.94 73.63 75.11 7.65 86.5 78.6 79.6 79.4 82.22 x Yield (bu/acre) 142.2 16.4 147.9 149.1 15.7 153.9 165.2 164.8 158.1 Production 1,89 11,87 11,112 1,535 13,38 12,11 13,151 13,85 12,998 + Imports 14.8 1.83 11. 1. 2. 14. 1. 12. 1. Total Supply (M bu) 11,19 12,776 13,237 12,512 14,362 13,739 14,834 14,769 14,611 Feed & Residual (M bu) 5,795 6,158 6,141 5,75 5,938 5,254 5,55 5,6 5,325 Food, Seed, Industrial 2,537 2,686 2,975 3,529 4,363 4,953 5,565 5,617 5,827 Ethanol 1,168 1,323 1,6 2,15 3,26 3,677 4,3 4,315 4,5 Ex ports 1,9 1,818 2,15 2,1 2,436 1,858 2, 1,95 2,25 Total Use (M bu) 1,232 1,662 11,266 11,379 12,737 12,65 13,115115 13,167167 13,177177 Ending Stocks 958 2,114 1,971 1,133 1,624 1,674 1,719 1,63 1,434 Stocks/Use 9.4% 19.8% 17.5% 1.% 12.8% 13.9% 13.1% 12.2% 1.9% Source: JPMorgan Soft Commodity Strategy, USDA. CORN

A Look at the Longer Term J.P. Morgan Forecast 29/1* 29/1 21/11 211/12 212/13 213/14 214/15 215/16 Beginning Stocks (M bu) 1,673 1,672 1,63 1,434 1,425 1,528 1,715 1,84 Planted Acreage (M. acres) 86.5 86.5 89.56 89. 9. 91. 91. 91. Harvested Acreage (M. acres) 79.6 79.4 82.22 81.88 82.8 83.72 83.72 83.72 x Yield (bu/acre) 165.2 164.8 158.1 163.22 165.65 168.7 17.5 172.92 Production 13,151 13,85 12,998 13,365 13,716 14,71 14,274 14,477 + Imports 1. 12. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. Total Supply (M bu) 14,834 14,769 14,611 14,89 15,151 15,69 15,999 16,327 Feed & Residual (M bu) 5,55 5,6 5,325 5,362 5,391 5,412 5,447 5,56 Food, Seed, Industrial 5,565 5,617 5,827 5,972 6,157 6,382 6,537 6,572 Ethanol 4,3 4,315 4,5 4,64 4,82 5,4 5,19 5,22 Exports 2, 1,95 2,25 2,5 2,75 2,1 2,175 2,175 Total Use (M bu) 13,115 13,167 13,177 13,384 13,623 13,894 14,159 14,253 Ending Stocks 1,719 1,63 1,434 1,425 1,528 1,715 1,84 2,74 Stocks/Use 13.1% 12.2% 1.9% 1.7% 11.2% 12.3% 13.% 14.6% Source: JPMorgan Soft Commodity Strategy, t USDA. CORN

What-If? Several Hypothetical Supply and Demand Scenarios for Corn Negative Yield 211/12 212/13 213/14 214/15 215/16 Beginning Stocks (M bu) 1,434 1,425 1,25 1,392 1,517 Planted Acreage 89. 9. 91. 91. 91. Harv ested Acreage 81.88 82.8 83.72 83.72 83.72 x Yield (bu/acre) 163.22 15. 168.7 17.5 172.92 Production 13,365 12,42 14,71 14,274 14,477 Event + Imports 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. Total Supply (M bu) 14,89 13,855 15,286 15,676 16,4 Feed & Residual (M bu) 5,362 5,1 5,412 5,447 5,56 Food, Seed, Industrial 5,972 5,65 6,382 6,537 6,572 Ethanol 4,64 4,44 5,4 5,19 5,22 Ex ports 2,5 1,9 2,1 2,175 2,175 Total Use (M bu) 13,384 12,65 13,894 14,159 14,253 Ending Stocks 1,425 1,25 1,392 1,517 1,751 Stocks/Use 1.7% 9.5% 1.% 1.7% 12.3% CORN

What-If? Several Hypothetical Supply and Demand Scenarios for Corn Slower Acreage G 211/12 212/13 213/14 214/15 215/16 Beginning Stocks (M bu) 1,434 1362 1,362 1,379 1473 1,473 1,62 Planted Acreage 88. 89. 9. 91. 91. Harv ested Acreage 8.96 81.88 82.8 83.72 83.72 x Yield (bu/acre) 163.22 165.65 168.7 17.5 172.92 Production 13,214 13,563 13,916 14,274 14,477 Gains + Imports 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. Total Supply (M bu) 14,659 14,935 15,35 15,757 16,17 Feed & Residual (M bu) 5,325 5,35 5,375 5,425 5,475 Food, Seed, Industrial 5,972 6,157 6,382 6,537 6,572 Ethanol 4,64 482 4,82 5,4 519 5,19 5,22 Ex ports 2, 2,5 2,75 2,175 2,175 Total Use (M bu) 13,297 13,557 13,832 14,137 14,222 Ending Stocks 1,362 1,379 1,473 1,62 1,885 Stocks/Use 1.2% 1.2% 1.6% 11.5% 13.3% CORN

Key World Corn Fundamental Trends y-o-y World Production & Stocks Changes mmt 1, Ending Stocks 8, Production 6, 4, 2, -2, -4, 1997 1999 21 23 25 27 29 Source: JPMorgan Soft Commodity Strategy, USDA/FAS. CORN

US Corn Export Demand is Down in 21 21 US Weekly Corn Exports and Implied Pace Monthly Export Volumes in 29/1 Crop Year ' bu 2, % of USDA 1% ' bu 6, 6 15, 1, 5, 28,41 Implied Weekly Sales to Meet USDA Est 9/3 11/12 1/21 4/1 6/1 8/19 8% 6% 4% 2% % 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 5-Yr Range 5-Yr Av erage 29/1 Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug 5 4 3 2 1 Source: JPMorgan Soft Commodity Strategy, USDA. WHEAT

Key World Corn Fundamental Trends Mexico Corn Production, Exports & Yield ' mt Production (Left Ax is) ' mt 3, 25, Imports Stocks (Right Axis) 5, 4, 2, 15, 1, 5, 3, 2, 1, 199 1992 1994 1996 1998 2 22 24 26 28 Source: JPMorgan Soft Commodity Strategy, USDA/FAS. CORN

Key World Corn Fundamental Trends Mexico Food and Feed Demand To 215 Mexico Imports To 215 ' mt Food/Industrial ' mt 18, 2, Feed 16, 18, 14, 16, 14, 12, 12, 1, 1, 8, 8, 6, 6, 4, 4, 2, 2 2, 198 1984 1988 1992 1996 2 24 28 212 ' mmt 12, 1,5 9, 7,5 6, 4,5 3, 1,5 1996 1998 2 22 24 26 28 21 212 214 CORN Source: JPMorgan Soft Commodity Strategy, USDA/FAS.

Key World Corn Fundamental Trends China Corn Production, Use, Exports & Stocks ' mt. 18, 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Source: JPMorgan Soft Commodity Strategy, USDA/FAS. Production Total Use Ending Stocks Ex ports (Right Ax is) 2 22 24 26 28 18, 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, CORN

Key World Corn Fundamental Trends China and US Feed Demand To 215 China Yields To 215 ' mt 18, China US 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, US CAGR = 1.2% China CAGR = 5.% 198 1984 1988 1992 1996 2 24 28 212 mt/ha 6. 5.5 5. China 4.5 4. 3.5 3. 198 1984 1988 1992 1996 2 24 28 212 CORN Source: JPMorgan Soft Commodity Strategy, USDA/FAS.

Key World Corn Fundamental Trends China Corn Production, Use, Exports & Stocks: The View to 215 ' mt. 2, 15, 1, 5, Source: JPMorgan Soft Commodity Strategy, USDA/FAS. Production Total Use Ending Stocks Ex ports (Right Ax is) Imports (Right Ax is) 2 22 24 26 28 21 212 214 12, 1, 8, 6 6, 4, 2, CORN

Key World Corn Fundamental Trends Argentina Corn Production, Exports & Yield ' mt Production (Left Ax is) mt/ha 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Ex ports Yield (Right Ax is) 2 22 24 26 28 Source: JPMorgan Soft Commodity Strategy, USDA/FAS. 8.5 8. 75 7.5 7. 6.5 6. 5.5 5. 4.5 4 4. CORN

Key World Corn Fundamental Trends Brazil Corn Production, Exports & Yield ' mt Production ' mt 7, 6, 5, 4, Total Use Ex ports (Right Ax is) 1, 8 8, 6, 3, 2, 1, 2 22 24 26 28 Source: JPMorgan Soft Commodity Strategy, USDA/FAS. 4, 2, CORN

Key World Corn Fundamental Trends Brazil First Crop Production Brazil Second Crop Production ' ha 5, 4, 3, 2, South Southeast Center-West Northeast North * ' mt 2, 15, 1, * 1, 5, - 199 1993 1996 1999 22 25 28 199 1993 1996 1999 22 25 28 - CORN Source: JPMorgan Soft Commodity Strategy, USDA/FAS.

World Corn Balance Sheet CORN J.P. Morgan Forecast 23/4 24/5 25/6 26/7 27/8* 28/9* 29/1* 29/1 21/11 Beginning Stocks (' mt) 126,733 14,813 131,434 124,292 18,864 129,66 145,971 145,971 132,88 Harv ested Area (' ha.) 141,662 144,987 145,4343 149,243 159,927927 157,186186 155,211 154,82 157,916 x Yield (mt/ha) 4.42 4.93 4.81 4.77 4.95 5.4 5.13 5.1 5.11 Production 626,798 714,919 698,784 712,38 791,871 791,617 796,446 789,639 86,577 of which Major Ex porters United States 256,229229 299,876 282,263263 267,53 331,177177 37,142 334,52 332,375375 33,171 Argentina 15, 2,5 15,8 22,5 22, 12,6 15, 19,68 16,875 Brazil 42, 35, 41,7 51, 58,6 51, 51, 49,692 54,6 China 115,83 13,29 139,365 151,6 152,3 165,9 155, 15,45 16,38 FSU-12 11,58 15,424 13,289 12,849 13,79 21,315 17,865 17,384 17,477 South Africa 97 9,7 11,716 6935 6,935 73 7,3 13,164164 12,567 11,5 11,51 12,474 Major Importers Mex ico 21,8 22,5 19,5 22,35 23,6 24,226 22, 22,5 22,8 EU-27 39,876 66,471 6,668 53,829 47,555 62,71 56,126 56,14 58,784 Egy pt 5,74 5,84 5,932 6,149 6,174 6,217 6,3 6,314 6,192 Others India 14,98 14,18 14,71 15,1 18,96 19,29 18,5 18,6 19,41 Canada 9,587 8,837 9,332 8,99 11,649 1,592 9,56 9,54 11,36 Thailand 4,1 4,21 4, 3,8 3,85 4,2 4,25 4,252 4,172 Turkey 2,5 3, 3,7 2,8 2,9 4,15 3,8 3,8 3,254 Total Supply (' mt) 753,531 819,732 83,218 836,672 9,735 921,223 942,417 935,61 938,666 Feed & Residual (M bu) 445,317 475,77 477,618 477,893 496,329 479,184 492,524 49,444 491,998 Food, Seed, Industrial 22,713 211,273 227,779 246,242 274,539 295,29 311,446 315,521 322,41 Total Use (' mt) 648,3 686,35 75,397 724,135 77,868 774,393 83,97 85,964 814,48 Ending Stocks 14,813 131,434 124,292 18,864 129,66 145,971 136,189 132,88 131,564 Trade 79,66 77,645 8,955 93,96 98,69 82,2 84,557 82,275 85,84 Stocks/Use 16% 19% 18% 15% 17% 19% 17% 16% 16% Source: JPMorgan Soft Commodity Strategy, USDA.

Agenda Section 21 in Context 1 Corn 2 Wheat 3 AGRICUL TURAL COMMODITY FUNDAMENTALS AND OUT LOOK

Wheat Market Outlook Large drop in US winter wheat plantings Lower prices may improve end-user interest Possible yield risks to N Hemisphere production Large Net-Short Market Structure Large stocks in US, World US acrege decline not bullish itself Poor global l demand, d plentiful l exporter supplies WHEAT

The Wheat Market May Be Setting Up for Short-Term Unwind Non-Commerical Net Long Positions vs Price Positions 2, -2, -4, -6, -8, -1, Non-Comml W Net Length (Left) Price (Right) Feb-8 Jun-8 Oct-8 Feb-9 Jun-9 Oct-9 Feb-1 /bu. 1,3 1,1 9 7 5 3 Source: JPMorgan Soft Commodity Strategy, CFTC. WHEAT

US Wheat Supply in 21: Lower, but Not Necessarily Bullish 21 All-Wheat Acreage Declines, Led by SRW......but this Alone is Not Enough to Justify Bullishness ' acres Hard Red Winter Durum mil. bu. A big SRW supply buffer in stks/use 9 White Wheat Hard Red Spring 25 Soft Red Winter 29 cushions 21 5% 8 52.77 Ending Stocks 7 2 4% Stocks/Use 6 * 5 15 3% 4 3 2 1 199 1993 1996 1999 22 25 28 199 1993 1996 1999 22 25 28 1 5 2% 1% % Hard Red Winter Supplies Likely Remain Comfortable mil. bu. 5 4 3 2 1 Ending Stocks Stocks/Use stks/use 55% 45% 35% 25% 15% 5% WHEAT Source: JPMorgan Soft Commodity Strategy, USDA. 199 1993 1996 1999 22 25 28-5%

US Demand Trends in 21 are Poor 21 US Weekly Wheat Exports and Implied Pace Monthly Export Volumes in 29/1 Crop Year ' bu 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, 8,223 Implied Weekly Sales to Meet USDA Est 6/4 8/13 1/22 12/31 3/11 5/2 US Prices Have Been Uncompetitive % of USDA 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % ' bu 5-Yr Range 5-Yr Av erage 45, 29/1 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 WHEAT 5 US-Russia 4 3 US-France 2 1-1 -2-3 Jul 9 Aug 9 Sep 9 Oct 9 Nov 9 Dec 9 Jan 1 Source: JPMorgan Soft Commodity Strategy, USDA.

US Wheat Balance Sheet J.P. Morgan Forecast 23/4 24/5 25/6 26/7 27/8* 28/9* 29/1* 29/1 21/11 Beginning Stocks (M bu) 491.4 546.4 54. 571. 456. 36. 657. 656. 1,11.83 Planted Acreage (M. acres) 62.14 59.67 57.2 57.3 6.4 63.2 59.1 59.13 52.77 Harv ested Acreage (M. acres) 53.6 5. 5.1 46.8 51. 55.7 49.9 5.6 44.94 x Yield (bu/acre) 44.19 43.16 42. 38.7 4.5 44.9 44.4 44.31 44.19 Production 2,344.8 2,158.2 2,15. 1,812. 2,67. 2,499. 2,216. 2,217.83 1,985.76 + Imports 63. 7.6 82. 12. 113. 127. 115. 115. 15. Total Supply (M bu) 2,899.2 2 2,775.3 2,727. 2,53. 2,635. 2,932. 2,988. 2,988.83 83 3,97.1 1 Feed & Residual (M bu) 22.9 188.9 153. 131. 3. 258. 17. 158. 168. Food 911.9 94.7 915. 925. 948. 927. 94. 938. 967.65 Seed 79.7 79. 78. 81. 88. 75. 72. 71. 8. Ex ports 1,158.3 1,62.7 1,9. 91. 1,264. 1,15. 825. 81. 1,. Total Use (M bu) 2,352.8 2,235.2235 2 2,155. 2,48. 2,33. 2,675. 2,7. 1,977. 2,215.65215 Ending Stocks 546.4 54.1 571. 455. 36. 657. 981. 1,11.83 881.36 Stocks/Use 23.2% 24.2% 26.5% 22.2% 13.1% 24.6% 48.9% 51.2% 39.8% Source: JPMorgan Soft Commodity Strategy, USDA. WHEAT

US, Sub-Class Balance Sheet J.P. Morgan Forecast 25/6 26/7* 27/8* 28/9* 29/1* 29/1 21/11 US HRW Beginning Stocks (M bu) 193.1 214.84 165. 138. 254. 254. 431. Production 929.82 682.8 962. 1,35. 919. 919.58 838.82 + Imports.43 1.. 1. 1. 1. 1. Total Supply (M bu) 1,123.26 897.92 1,127. 1,174. 1,174. 1,174.58 1,27.82 Domestic Use (M bu) 478.41 452. 45. 472. 443. 438. 487.45 Ex ports 43. 281. 538. 447. 31. 3. 4. Total Use (M bu) 98.42 734. 988. 919. 753. 738. 887.45 Ending Stocks 214.84 164. 139. 254. 421. 436.58 383.37 US SRW Beginning Stocks (M bu) 88. 16. 19. 55. 171. 171. 212.53 Production 39.2 39.17 358. 614. 44. 43.53 34.85 + Imports 26.56 2. 14. 33. 24. 24. 15. Total Supply (M bu) 423.58 516. 481. 72. 599. 598.53 532.38 Domestic Use (M bu) 241.1 262. 215. 332. 291. 286. 277.2 Ex ports 76.48 146. 29. 199. 15. 1. 14. Total Use (M bu) 317.58 48. 424. 531. 396. 386. 417.2 Ending Stocks 16. 18. 57. 171. 23. 212.53 115.18 US HRS Beginning Stocks (M bu) 159. 132. 117. 68. 142. 142. 275. Production 466.59 432.34 449. 512. 548. 548. 51.4 + Imports 12.65 49.66 48. 45. 4. 4. 42. Total Supply (M bu) 638.24 614. 614. 625. 73. 73. 827.4 Domestic Use (M bu) 224.7 246. 245. 273. 263. 26. 268. Ex ports 281.53 25. 35. 21. 195. 195. 25. Total Use (M bu) 56.24 496. 551. 483. 458. 455. 518. Ending Stocks 132. 118. 63. 142. 272. 275. 39.4 Source: JPMorgan Soft Commodity Strategy, USDA. WHEAT

US, Sub-Class Balance Sheet J.P. Morgan Forecast 25/6 26/7* 27/8* 28/9* 29/1* 29/1 21/11 US White Beginning Stocks (M bu) 62.5 78. 44. 37. 64. 64. 39.68 Production 298.16 253.98 227. 255. 237. 236.68 242.93 + Importst 99 9.9 1. 9 9. 8 8. 1. 1. 12. Total Supply (M bu) 37.55 341.98 28. 3. 311. 31.68 294.61 Domestic Use (M bu) 117.98 11. 72. 1. 11. 11. 99. Ex ports 174.58 197. 17. 136. 17. 17. 165. Total Use (M bu) 292.55 298. 242. 236. 271. 271. 264. Ending Stocks 78. 44. 38. 64. 4. 39.68 3.61 US Durum Beginning Stocks (M bu) 37.59 4.35 22. 2. 25. 25. 48.4 Production 11.11 53.48 72. 84. 19. 11.4 89.12 + Imports 32.19 41. 4. 44. 4. 4. 35. Total Supply (M bu) 17.89 134.83 134. 13. 174. 175.4 172.16 Domestic Use (M bu) 83.88 79. 83. 81. 84. 82. 84. Ex ports 46.66 35. 42. 24. 45. 45. 45. Total Use (M bu) 13.54 114. 125. 15. 129. 127. 129. Ending Stocks 4.35 22. 8. 25. 45. 48.4 43.16 Source: JPMorgan Soft Commodity Strategy, USDA. WHEAT

A Look at the Next Five Years for US Wheat US Ending Stocks and Stocks/Use to 215 Domestic and Export Demand Remains Weak To 215 mil. bu. 2, 1,5 1, 5 Ending Stocks Stocks/Use 198 1984 1988 1992 1996 2 24 28 212 stks/use 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % mil. bu. 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Wheat Use Corn Use 198 1984 1988 1992 1996 2 24 28 212 WHEAT Source: JPMorgan Soft Commodity Strategy, USDA/FAS.

A Look at the Next Five Years for US Wheat J.P. Morgan Forecast 29/1* 29/1 21/11 211/12 212/13 213/14 214/15 215/16 Beginning Stocks (M bu) 657. 656. 1,6.83 91.81 827.4 769.46 728.41 639.63 Planted Acreage (M. acres) 59.1 59.13 52.77 55. 56. 57. 57. 57. Harvested Acreage (M. acres) 49.9 5.6 44.94 47.3 48.16 49.2 49.2 49.2 x Yield (bu/acre) 44.4 44.31 44.79 44.4 44.31 44.59 44.75 45. Production 2,216. 2,217.83 2,12.59 2,83.7 2,134.13 2,185.67 2,193.65 2,25.9 + Imports 115. 115. 15. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. Total Supply (M bu) 2,988. 2,988.83 83 3,12.83 3,64.87 3,41.53 3,35.12 3,2.6 6 2,925.53 53 Feed & Residual (M bu) 17. 157. 168. 187.48 192.7 196.71 197.43 198.53 Food 94. 94. 971.3 97. 975. 98. 985. 99. Seed 72. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. Exports 825. 815. 1,. 1,. 1,25. 1,5. 1,1. 1,1. Total Use (M bu) 2,7. 1,982. 2,219.3219 2,237.48237 2,272.7272 2,36.71 2,362.43 2,368.53 Ending Stocks 981. 1,6.83 91.81 827.4 769.46 728.41 639.63 557. Stocks/Use 48.9% 5.8% 4.6% 37.% 33.9% 31.6% 27.1% 23.5% Source: JPMorgan Soft Commodity Strategy, USDA. WHEAT

Key World Corn Fundamental Trends World Production, Consumption and Stocks World Production 29 vs 28 ' mt Production ' mt 75, Ending Stocks (right ax is) 22, Consumption 7, 2, 65, 6, 55, 5, 45, 4, 35, 18, 16, 14, 12, Ukraine Russia EU 25 Canada Australia Argentina 3, 1, -15-1 -5 5 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 mmt US World Production 21 vs 29 Ukraine Russia EU 25 Canada Australia Argentina US -8-6 -4-2 2 4 6 mmt WHEAT Source: JPMorgan Soft Commodity Strategy, USDA/FAS.

Key World Wheat Fundamental Trends Argentina Production, Exports & Stocks ' Production ' 18, Ex ports 3,5 16, Ending Stocks (right axis) 3, 14, 12, 2,5 1, 2, 8, 6, 4, 2, 199 1993 1996 1999 22 25 28 1,5 1, 5 Source: JPMorgan Soft Commodity Strategy, USDA/FAS. WHEAT

Key World Wheat Fundamental Trends Brazil Production, Imports & Stocks ' mt Production ' mt 9, Imports 1,6 Ending Stocks (right axis) 8, 1,4 7 7, 1,2 6, 1, 5, 8 4, 6 3, 2 2, 4 1, 2 199 1993 1996 1999 22 25 28 Source: JPMorgan Soft Commodity Strategy, USDA/FAS. WHEAT

Key World Wheat Fundamental Trends Russia & Ukraine Production, Exports and Stocks to 215 ' mt ' mt Production 1, Ex ports 3, Ending Stocks (right ax is) 8, 25, 6, 4, 2, 2, 15, 1, 5, 199 1993 1996 1999 22 25 28 211 214 Source: JPMorgan Soft Commodity Strategy, USDA/FAS. WHEAT

World Wheat Balance Sheet J.P. Morgan Forecast 23/4 24/5 25/6 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1* 29/1 Beginning Stocks (' mt) 166,636 131,964 15,241 147,475 127,594 121,69 163,944 163,944 Harv ested Area (m ha.) 29,611 217,336 219,262 212,213 218,1 224,962 225,732 225,1 x Yield (mt/ha) 2.64 2.88 2.83 2.81 2.8 3.3 3. 3. Production 554,63 625,724 619,933 595,72 61,456 682,682 676,127 675,45 of which Major Ex porters United States 63,85 58,698 57,243 49,217 55,821 68,16 6,314 6,359 Canada 23,49 24,796 25,748 25,265 2,54 28,611 26,5 26,55 EU-27 11,578 146,886 132,356 124,87 12,133 151,72 138,339 139,23 Russia 34,1 45,4 47,7 44,9 49,4 63,7 61,7 61,813 Australia 26,132 21,95 25,173 1,822 13,569 2,939 22,5 21,942 Argentina 14,5 16,1 14,6 16,1 18, 9, 8, 8,265 Kazakhstan 11,55 9,9595 11,2 13,45 16,45 12,55 17, 17,52 Ukraine 3,6 17,5 18,7 14, 13,9 25,9 2,5 2,495 China 86,49 91,952 97,445 18,466 19,298 112,464 114,5 114, Major Importers Brazil 5,851 5,845 4,873 2,234 3,825 5,88 4,8 4,56 Egypt 6,443 7,177 8,184 8,274 8,275 7,883 7,9 7,9 Mexico 2,7 2,42 3,2 3,24 3,593 4, 4,3 4,3 Others India 65,1 72,15 68,64 69,35 75,81 78,57 8,58 79,84 Pakistan 19,183 19,5 21,612 21,277 23,3 21,5 24, 24,3 Total Supply (' mt) 72,699 757,688 77,174 743,177 738,5 83,751 84,7171 839,394394 Feed & Residual (M bu) 96,298 15,37 11,935 15,877 96,317 112,71 11,67 111, Food, Seed, Other Domestic 484,262 5,155 56,182 512,686 516,852 52,572 531,817 532, Total Use (' mt) 58,56 65,525 617,117 618,563 613,169 633,273 642,424 643, Ending Stocks 131,964 15,241 147,475 127,594 121,69 163,944 195,64 196,394 Trade 13,7 113,826 113,829 115,596596 116,447 142,4848 123,749 123,5 WHEAT