September 2012 Turning 65 Beyond a Rite of Passage 1
Cumulatively 31.4 million adults will turn 65 between 2012 and 2020 4,000,000 3,900,000 Turning 65 by Year 3.8 M 3,800,000 3,700,000 3,600,000 3,500,000 3,400,000 3,300,000 3,200,000 3.3M 3.3 M 3.3 M 3.4 M 3.4 M 3.5 M 3.6 M 3.7 M 3,100,000 3,000,000 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Source: NCOA analysis of U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, Interim State Population Projections, 2005, File 3. Interim State Projections of Population by Single Year of Age: July 1, 2004 to 2030. 2
Geographic Distribution 3
This age wave is affecting the size of the 65+ population, with an avg. growth of 26% by 2020 2010 2020 Source: NCOA analysis of U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, Interim State Population Projections, 2005, File 3. Interim State Projections of Population by Single Year of Age: July 1, 2004 to 2030. 4
One third of those turning 65 lives in the five most populous states 368,074 CA 45,566 OR 73,310 WA 6,430 AK 31,278 NV 15,862 ID 12,270 MT 6,614 WY 24,697 NM 15,480 HI 6,883 ND 8,137 SD 18,410 NE 33,087 IA 19,840 127,101 66,606 UT 49,360 IL IN 24,623 CO 28,871 WV 65,888 KS MO 79,579 AZ 227,672 TX 40,345 OK 54,628 MN 34,749 AR 48,601 LA 61,656 WI 32,750 MS 111,149 MI 72,712 TN 54,209 AL 48,971 KY 130,286 OH Less than 50,000 50,000 to 100,000 100,001 to 150,000 More than 150,000 93,616 GA 8,566 VT 55,106 SC 150,669 PA 89,775 VA 103,429 NC 263,441 FL 17,010 NH 206,472 NY 62,538 MD 4,741 DC 18,268 ME 97,836 NJ 10,966 DE 74,333 MA 12,327 RI 40,184 CT Source: NCOA analysis of the American Community Survey 2010 Public Use Microdata Files. 5
Some states are magnets to those turning 65 Top States with a Net Gain Top States with a Net Loss Florida 4,133 New York -894 Nevada 1,426 South Dakota -795 Oregon 1,391 Connecticut -632 California 1,323 Pennsylvania -485 Source: NCOA analysis of the American Community Survey 2010 Public Use Microdata Files. Net gain and net loss based on the number of people 65 moving IN and OUT of a given state. 6
A Profile of the Population Turning 65 7
Sex and Race/Ethnicity 64 65 # % # % Male 1,345,164 48% 1,281,797 47% Female 1,468,583 52% 1,433,859 53% White 2,144,147 76% 2,069,216 76% Black/African American 265,264 9% 262,685 10% Hispanic 240,519 9% 227,770 8% Asian 118,233 4% 109,566 4% Native American 58,770 2% 56,966 2% Other 58,770 2% 56,966 2% Source: NCOA analysis of the American Community Survey 2010 Public Use Microdata Files. 8
One fourth is economically insecure 64 65 # % # % Between 0 and 100 261,003 9% 234,947 9% Between 101 and 150 213,581 8% 209,280 8% Between 151 and 200 213,158 8% 226,596 8% Under 200% FPL 687,742 24% 670,823 25% Source: NCOA analysis of the American Community Survey 2010 Public Use Microdata Files. 9
Income from wages decline rapidly With Social Security With Wages # $ # $ 64 1,430,238 $11,599.20 1,195,890 $45,996.20 65 1,794,455 $11,440.60 1,016,570 $42,592.80 66 2,110,025 $12,215.60 848,922 $40,962.50 Source: NCOA analysis of the American Community Survey 2010 Public Use Microdata Files. 10
Education 64 65 # % # % 3rd grade or less 62,010 2% 72,426 3% 9th grade or less 234,198 8% 247,745 9% High School or Less 1,240,013 44% 1,268,957 47% College 1,573,734 56% 1,446,699 53% Source: NCOA analysis of the American Community Survey 2010 Public Use Microdata Files. 11
Military Service 64 65 # % # % Past Military Service 603,449 21% 539,679 20% Served in Vietnam 580,535 21% 493,041 18% TRICARE 109,223 4% 130,316 5% VA Health 175,289 6% 176,138 6% Source: NCOA analysis of the American Community Survey 2010 Public Use Microdata Files. 12
Disability Status 64 65 # % # % Ambulatory difficulty 398,094 14% 396,922 15% Independent living difficulty 192,198 7% 199,527 7% Hearing difficulty 187,987 7% 195,714 7% Cognitive difficulty 151,874 5% 153,791 6% Self-care difficulty 120,804 4% 116,914 4% Vision difficulty 97,362 3% 99,106 4% With a disability 618,303 22% 612,401 23% Source: NCOA analysis of the American Community Survey 2010 Public Use Microdata Files. 13
Living Arrangements 64 65 # % # % Living Alone 634,767 23% 645,632 24% Institutionalized 23,389 1% 21,039 1% Married 1,869,355 66% 1,773,831 65% Widowed 238,686 8% 295,187 11% Divorced 467,489 17% 435,938 16% Separated 53,578 2% 44,238 2% Never married 184,639 7% 166,462 6% Source: NCOA analysis of the American Community Survey 2010 Public Use Microdata Files. 14
460,000 already enrolled in Medicare and 117,000 in Medicaid before turning 65 64 (through DI) 65 # % # % Medicare (including duals) 463,065 16% 2,358,764 87% Duals 117,510 4% 334,400 12% Source: NCOA analysis of the American Community Survey 2010 Public Use Microdata Files. 15
Challenges 16
Large volume of economically insecure seniors turning 65 a challenge for a resource-limited aging network # under 200% FPL 2007 2009 2011 Growth 592,750 612,871 3.4% 687,742 12.2% % under 200% FPL 2007 2009 2011 592,750 612,871 687,742 3.4% 12.2% 24% 24% 24% 24% 24% 24% Source: NCOA analysis of the American Community Survey 2010, 2008, 2006 Public Use Microdata Files. 17
Signs of economic insecurity among the population turning 65 in the next 5 years 15% isn't confident that they can afford the costs of an unexpected expense 29% isn't confident that they know the benefits for which they are eligible 25% confident that they will be able to afford their Medicare premiums, deductibles and co-payments in future years 11% don t have a financial plan for retirement 34% have less than $50,000 in retirement savings Source: NCOA analysis of the United States of Aging NCOA- United Health Care Annual Survey of Older Adults, 2012 18
Many seniors turning 65 already have multiple chronic conditions Age No Chronic Conditions 1 chronic condition 2 or more 64 19% 31% 51% 65 17% 29% 54% Source: NCOA analysis of the National Health Interview Survey 2010, Public Use Files. 19
67% of individuals age 65 screened by BCU are missing out on at least one benefit 100% 90% 80% 70% 67% 60% 50% 53% 40% 30% 26% 34% 20% 10% 14% 14% 0% Supplemental Security Income (SSI) Medicaid Program Medicare Savings Programs (MSP) Medicare Low Income Subsidy (LIS) Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) At least one benefit Source: NCOA analysis of a random sample of BenefitsCheckUp.org consumer comprehensive screenings (n=1,100). 20
Trends 21
Growth in Limited English Proficiency seniors turning 65 2007 2009 2011 65 and LEP 113,492 122,528 144,417 Growth - 8.0% 17.9% All 65 2,459,340 2,641,018 2,813,747 Growth - 7.4% 6.5% Source: NCOA analysis of the American Community Survey 2010, 2008, 2006 Public Use Microdata Files. 22
The number and percent of seniors in the labor force at age 65 has increased Age 64 Age 65 % in labor force (2012) % in labor force (2006) 44% 39% 40% 34% Source: NCOA analysis of the Current Population Survey March 2012, 2006, March Supplements. 23
Nearly half still carry a mortgage payment on their primary home Age 64 Age 65 % Owned with mortgage or loan (include home equity loans) (2012) % Owned with mortgage or loan (include home equity loans) (2006) 47% 44% 45% 42% Source: NCOA analysis of the American Community Survey 2010, 2006 Public Use Microdata Files. 24
Most seniors turning 65 have Internet access Age At Home Outside Home Any 60-63 75% 31% 77% 64 73% 28% 75% 65 72% 24% 73% Sources: NCOA analysis of the Current Population Survey October 2010, Internet and Computer Use Supplement. 25
Most seniors turning 65 use Internet, own a computer and have a cell phone Age Use Internet Owns a Computer Has a Cell Phone 60-63 70% 46% 73% 64 59% 37% 63% 65 56% 32% 49% Source: NCOA analysis of the Pew Research Center August 2011 - Apps and Adult SNS Climate data.. 26
Key Decisions 27
Turning 65: Key Decisions Enrolling in Medicare Relationship between Social Security and Medicare Employer-based insurance and Part B Choosing a plan From Medicaid-only to Dual Eligibility Access to other benefits 28
Turning 65: Key Opportunities In the next 3 years 182,000 (11%) of your congregate meals clients will be turning 65 52,000 (8%) of your home delivered meals clients will be turning 65 22,000 (8%) of your transportation clients will be turning 65 32,000 (7%) of your case management clients will be turning 65 6,000 (3%) of your caregiver program clients will be turning 65 Sources: 2011 National Survey of OAA Participants Public Use Files Codebook: Caregiver, Transportation, Home Delivered Meals, Case management and Congregate Meals 29
Turning 65: Key Opportunities Affordable Care Act Implementation Comprehensive Benefits Screenings Targeting Opportunities for recruiting volunteers Online tools become more relevant Financial education activities Engaging members of the family 30
Resources BenefitsCheckUp.org http://www.benefitscheckup.org/ MyMedicareMatters http://www.mymedicarematters.org/ Social Security Administration http://www.ssa.gov/pgm/retirement.htm Medicare.gov http://www.medicare.gov/ 31
Contact Us Héctor L. Ortiz National Center for Benefits Outreach and Enrollment 1901 L Street NW, Suite 400 Washington, DC 20036 Phone: 202-479-6670 Fax: 202-479-0735 hector.ortiz@ncoa.org www.ncoa.org 32