INDUSTRY PHARMA CMP (as on 10 Aug 2018) Rs 2,060 Target Price Rs 2,410 Nifty 11,430 Sensex 37,869 KEY STOCK DATA Bloomberg ALKEM IN No. of Shares (mn) 120 MCap (Rs bn) / ($ mn) 246/3,576 6m avg traded value (Rs mn) 99 STOCK PERFORMANCE (%) 52 Week high / low Rs 2,469/1,578 3M 6M 12M Absolute (%) 1.7 (5.5) 19.2 Relative (%) (5.7) (16.8) (0.9) SHAREHOLDING PATTERN (%) Promoters 65.9 FIs & Local MFs 4.0 FPIs 2.8 Public & Others 27.3 Source : BSE Amey Chalke amey.chalke@hdfcsec.com +91-22-6171-7321 Growth stock Alkem s 1QFY19 results were largely below our estimates. Revenue at Rs 16.7bn, was up 28.9%YoY and 10.3%QoQ. EBITDA of Rs 2.1bn grew 127%YoY with margin coming up to 12.8%, up 550bps YoY. PAT at Rs 1.4bn was 115% higher than that in 1QFY18. The impressive growth is attributed to a low GST-hit base. EBITDA, margin, and PAT missed our estimates by 21%, 380bps, and 22% YoY respectively. Domestic growth was 25.7%. As per AIOCD, It grew higher than IPM at 14.2% v/s 10.6% in the quarter. International business too delivered impressive performance, grew 35.1% YoY. The first quarter is usually positive for Alkem, however the low EBITDA margin is due to a delayed sale of Rs 1.9bn which was booked in July 2018. Adjusted for this, the margin comes at ~17.5%, inline with our estimates. With this sales pushed ahead, Q2 will be a bumper quarter. After EIR being issued for the Daman facility from US FDA, Alkem is not expected to have any regulatory issues going ahead. With continued domestic growth above IPM and US regulatory hurdles overcome, we see positive RESULTS REVIEW 1QFY19 11 AUG 2018 Alkem Labs BUY story remains on-track. Maintain BUY with a revised TP of Rs 2,410 (24x FY20E EPS). Highlights of the quarter India business: Domestic business revenues at Rs 10.9bn were aided by a seasonally strong quarter for Alkem. It also saw strong growth in the chronic space like Cardiac, anti-diabetes, CNS, and derma; while continuing to be one of the leading companies in the acute space in areas including anti-infectives, gastro, analgesics, and nutrients. Guiding launch of 30-40 products in FY19. US business: US revenues of Rs 4.2bn grew 43%YoY and contributed 25.9% to total revenues. Price erosion is limited to single digits. The growth is attributed to new product launches as well as gain in market share of existing products. Alkem filed for 4 ANDAs and received 1 final and 1 tentative approval in the quarter. Inspection of the Daman plant was closed in July 2018. Other key international markets include Australia and Chile, which also reported healthy growth. Near-term outlook: Expect strong recovery in the stock post Daman clearance. potential in the stock returns as long-term growth Financial Summary Year Ending March (Rs mn) 1QFY19 1QFY18 YoY (%) 4QFY18 QoQ (%) FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E Net Sales 16,695 12,952 28.9 15,132 10.3 58,525 64,312 71,171 82,385 EBITDA 2,142 944 127.0 1,137 88.4 9,990 10,284 12,405 15,853 APAT 1,373 638 115.2 663 107.1 8,920 6,884 8,738 12,012 Diluted EPS (Rs) 11.5 5.3 115.2 5.5 107.1 74.6 57.6 73.1 100.5 P/E (x) 27.5 35.6 28.1 20.4 RoE (%) 21.9 14.8 16.8 20.0 # Consolidated
Top-line growth of 29%YoY is attributed to low base and double-digit growth across segments Margins impacted due to a June order of Rs 1.9bn being deferred to July 2018 Adjusting for this, EBITDA margin at ~17.5% R&D was at 5.9% of sales, slightly higher YoY Quarterly Financials Snapshot (Consolidated) Particulars 1QFY19 1QFY18 YoY (%) 4QFY18 QoQ (%) Net Sales 16,695 12,952 28.9 15,132 10.3 Material Expenses 6,661 5,624 18.4 6,160 8.1 Employee Expenses 3,395 2,738 24.0 2,987 13.7 R&D Expenses 985 701 40.5 1,117 (11.8) Other Operating Expenses 3,512 2,946 19.2 3,731 (5.9) EBITDA 2,142 944 127.0 1,137 88.4 Depreciation 425 306 403 EBIT 1,718 637 169.5 734 134.1 Other Income 163 295 179 Interest Cost 163 126 104 PBT 1,718 807 112.9 808 112.5 Tax 345 169 145 Minority Interest - - - RPAT 1,373 638 115.2 663 107.1 EO Items (Adj For Tax) - - - APAT 1,373 638 115.2 663 107.1 Margin Analysis 1QFY19 1QFY18 YoY (%) 4QFY18 QoQ (%) Material Expenses % Net Sales 39.9 43.4 (352) 40.7 (81) Employee Expenses % Net Sales 20.3 21.1 (81) 19.7 59 R&D Expenses % Net Sales 5.9 5.4 49 7.4 (148) Other Operating Expenses % Net Sales 21.0 22.7 (171) 24.7 (362) EBITDA Margin (%) 12.8 7.3 555 7.5 532 Tax Rate (%) 20.1 20.9 (85) 18.0 212 APAT Margin (%) 8.2 4.9 330 4.4 384 Page 2
The seasonally strong quarter was milder than expected, leading to anticipation of bumper Q2 Growth In Domestic Revenue In Seasonally Strong Quarter India Rev. (Rs bn) US Rev. (Rs bn) Others (Rs bn) 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.2 3.0 3.4 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.6 4.1 4.2 Gross Margin Improvement Gross Profit (Rs bn) Gross margin (%) 63.2 64.0 60.3 60.9 63.5 62.0 59.3 12.3 10.3 8.6 8.7 14.1 12.6 9.6 10.9 56.6 60.1 8.8 10.0 9.4 7.9 7.3 11.6 11.1 9.0 10.0 Margins to improve as in Q2 as delay in order will inflate next quarter s revenue 2QFY17 3QFY17 4QFY17 1QFY18 2QFY18 3QFY18 4QFY18 1QFY19 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17 4QFY17 1QFY18 2QFY18 3QFY18 4QFY18 1QFY19 Tax rate maintained at ~20% EBITDA Margin: Below Our Estimates EBITDA (Rs bn) EBITDA margin (%) 24.7 20.7 18.6 19.0 18.1 PAT More Than Double YoY and QoQ EPS (Rs/sh) 11.9 12.8 7.3 7.5 2.7 3.1 2.7 1.5 0.9 4.6 3.6 1.1 2.1 20.0 23.7 19.5 11.5 5.3 26.8 14.4 5.5 11.5 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17 4QFY17 1QFY18 2QFY18 3QFY18 4QFY18 1QFY19 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17 4QFY17 1QFY18 2QFY18 3QFY18 4QFY18 1QFY19 Page 3
US growth much higher than our estimates, driven by new product launches as well as gain in market share of existing products Other international markets like Australia and Chile also showed good performance Segmental Quarterly Performance (Rs mn) 1QFY19 1QFY18 YoY (%) 4QFY18 QoQ (%) India 10,906 8,675 25.7 9,602 13.6 US 4,237 2,962 43.0 4,071 4.1 RoW 1,242 1,095 13.4 1,165 6.6 Total 16,385 12,732 28.7 14,838 10.4 Source: HDFC sec Inst Research Assumptions FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E India 36,475 42,153 44,900 50,288 57,328 Growth (%) 29.1% 15.6% 6.5% 12.0% 14.0% US 9,907 12,035 13,667 15,279 18,612 Growth (%) 53.4% 21.5% 13.6% 11.8% 21.8% RoW 3,504 3,624 4,670 5,604 6,445 Growth (%) 12.7% 3.4% 28.0% 20.0% 15.0% Total 49,886 57,812 63,237 71,171 82,385 Growth (%) 31.9% 15.9% 9.4% 12.5% 15.8% Source: HDFC sec Inst Research Page 4
Peer Set Comparison Mcap (Rs bn) CMP (Rs/sh) Reco TP Adj EPS (Rs/sh) P/E (x) RoE (%) FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E Sun Pharma 1,333 554 BUY 640 26.0 13.0 16.4 24.6 21.3 42.7 33.7 22.5 17.9 9.1 12.3 14.8 Cipla 499 621 NEU 595 12.5 17.5 22.5 28.6 49.7 35.4 27.6 21.7 8.4 10.5 12.0 13.7 Cadila Healthcare 386 377 BUY 525 14.5 12.9 14.6 21.2 25.9 29.3 25.7 17.8 23.5 16.8 16.1 20.1 Dr Reddy's Labs 376 2,214 NEU 2,340 72.7 59.2 75.7 102.5 30.5 37.4 29.2 21.6 9.5 7.8 9.5 11.5 Lupin 364 809 BUY 1,000 33.4 38.0 27.4 45.3 24.3 21.3 29.5 17.9 12.2 12.7 8.9 13.5 Aurobindo Pharma 352 610 BUY 691 39.3 34.4 36.6 45.4 15.3 17.5 16.4 13.2 27.6 19.1 16.9 17.8 Divi's Labs 298 1,124 NEU 1,150 39.9 33.0 44.6 51.4 28.1 34.0 25.2 21.9 22.0 15.5 18.7 18.9 Torrent Pharma 287 1,697 NEU 1,540 51.2 40.1 46.1 69.9 33.1 42.4 36.8 24.3 22.1 15.1 15.9 20.9 Alkem Laboratories 246 2,060 BUY 2,410 74.6 57.6 73.1 100.5 27.5 35.6 28.1 20.4 21.9 14.8 16.8 20.0 Glenmark 167 591 BUY 710 29.6 17.5 27.0 38.8 20.0 33.8 21.9 15.2 18.1 9.4 12.8 16.1 Jubilant Life Sciences 114 731 BUY 990 37.0 46.6 57.9 70.1 19.8 15.7 12.6 10.4 18.0 19.3 20.1 20.3 Alembic Pharma 109 578 NEU 560 21.4 21.9 23.8 31.1 27.0 26.4 24.2 18.6 23.0 20.0 18.8 20.9 Laurus Labs 46 438 NR 505 18.0 15.8 18.3 28.2 24.3 27.6 24.0 15.5 17.4 11.9 12.3 16.6 Dishman Carbogen Amcis 42 259 BUY 440 9.0 9.6 13.4 19.9 28.8 27.1 19.3 13.1 3.0 3.1 4.2 5.9 Strides Shasun 37 411 BUY 480 34.0 12.7 15.5 28.7 12.1 32.4 26.5 14.3 13.1 4.4 5.5 9.6 Suven Life Sciences 30 235 NR 450 6.8 9.7 10.3 11.4 34.3 24.2 22.7 20.6 13.8 17.2 16.0 15.5 Granules India 26 104 BUY 120 7.5 5.2 7.8 10.0 13.9 19.9 13.4 10.5 21.0 12.0 14.3 16.5 Neuland Labs 6 687 BUY 1,000 42.6 11.0 28.9 62.3 16.1 62.7 23.8 11.0 12.8 2.2 5.5 11.1 Source: HDFC sec Inst Research Change In Estimates (Consolidated) Rs mn Previous New % Chg FY18 FY19E FY20E FY18 FY19E FY20E FY18 FY19E FY20E Net Sales 64,312 72,069 83,409 64,312 71,171 82,385 (0.0) (1.2) (1.2) EBITDA 10,284 12,559 16,047 10,284 12,405 15,853 (0.0) (1.2) (1.2) APAT 6,884 9,186 12,183 6,884 8,738 12,012 0.0 (4.9) (1.4) Source: HDFC sec Inst Research Page 5
Income Statement (Consolidated) Year ending March (Rs mn) FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E Net Revenues 50,479 58,525 64,312 71,171 82,385 Growth (%) 36.2 15.9 9.9 10.7 15.8 Material Expenses 19,639 22,215 25,129 28,488 31,705 Employee Expenses 8,611 10,039 11,916 12,982 14,184 R&D Expenses 2,171 3,204 3,646 4,688 5,840 Other Operating Expenses 11,527 13,078 13,337 13,559 15,853 EBITDA 8,533 9,990 10,284 12,405 15,853 EBITDA Margin (%) 16.9 17.1 16.0 17.4 19.2 EBITDA Growth (%) 56.7 17.1 2.9 20.6 27.8 Depreciation 933 1,012 1,430 1,786 2,003 EBIT 7,599 8,978 8,854 10,619 13,850 Other Income (Including EO Items) 2,397 1,120 960 919 1,226 Interest 712 452 553 616 427 PBT 9,284 9,646 9,260 10,922 14,648 Tax (Incl Deferred) 1,762 600 2,876 2,184 2,637 Minority Interest (106) (126) - - - RPAT 7,416 8,920 6,384 8,738 12,012 EO (Loss) / Profit (Net Of Tax) - - (500) - - APAT 7,416 8,920 6,884 8,738 12,012 APAT Growth (%) 60.3 20.3 (22.8) 26.9 37.5 Adjusted EPS (Rs) 62.0 74.6 57.6 73.1 100.5 Balance Sheet (Consolidated) Year ending March (Rs mn) FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E SOURCES OF FUNDS Share Capital - Equity 239 239 239 239 239 Reserves 36,681 44,437 48,399 55,169 64,476 Total Shareholders Funds 36,920 44,676 48,638 55,408 64,715 Minority Interest 950 1,152 1,216 1,216 1,216 Long Term Debt 1,235 2,089 1,307 1,057 807 Short Term Debt 5,340 4,506 7,613 7,613 7,613 Total Debt 6,575 6,595 8,920 8,670 8,420 Net Deferred Taxes (5,152) (6,958) (6,539) (6,539) (6,539) Long Term Provisions & Others 830 1,022 1,313 1,576 1,891 TOTAL SOURCES OF FUNDS 40,122 46,487 53,547 60,330 69,703 APPLICATION OF FUNDS Net Block 10,965 14,522 19,382 23,394 26,200 CWIP 2,380 4,149 3,810 3,512 2,702 Goodwill 3,531 3,448 3,454 3,454 3,454 LT Loans & Advances 3,278 4,841 1,443 1,923 2,016 Total Non-current Assets 20,153 26,960 28,089 32,283 34,373 Cash & Equivalents 12,895 9,523 10,211 13,623 19,790 Inventories 9,094 12,060 14,421 12,947 14,652 Debtors 5,675 7,136 10,805 8,108 9,380 Other Current Assets 2,367 3,039 6,574 8,281 8,966 Total Current Assets 17,137 22,235 31,800 29,336 32,998 Creditors 5,805 7,414 9,607 8,264 9,352 Other Current Liabilities & Provns 4,257 4,817 6,945 6,649 8,105 Total Current Liabilities 10,062 12,231 16,552 14,912 17,458 Net Current Assets 7,075 10,004 15,248 14,424 15,541 TOTAL APPLICATION OF FUNDS 40,123 46,487 53,547 60,331 69,703 Page 6
Cash Flow Year ending March (Rs mn) FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E Reported PBT 8,451 9,646 9,260 10,922 14,648 Non-operating & EO items 240 - - - - Interest expenses (593) (669) (406) (303) (799) Depreciation 1,006 1,012 1,430 1,786 2,003 Working Capital Change 137 (4,300) (1,554) 605 (894) Tax Paid (1,982) (600) (2,876) (2,184) (2,637) OPERATING CASH FLOW ( a ) 7,259 5,090 5,855 10,826 12,322 Capex (2,535) (6,155) (5,956) (5,500) (4,000) Free cash flow (FCF) 4,724 (1,065) (102) 5,326 8,322 Investments 325 (444) 1,087 - - Non-operating Income 4,280 1,120 960 919 1,226 INVESTING CASH FLOW ( b ) 2,071 (5,479) (3,910) (4,581) (2,774) Debt Issuance/(Repaid) (6,710) 20 2,325 (250) (250) Interest Expenses (713) (452) (553) (616) (427) FCFE 1,906 (821) 3,717 5,379 8,871 Share Capital Issuance - - - - - Dividend (1,845) (2,125) (1,437) (1,967) (2,705) Others (160) (869) (476) (28) FINANCING CASH FLOW ( c ) (9,428) (3,426) (141) (2,861) (3,382) NET CASH FLOW (a+b+c) (99) (3,816) 1,804 3,384 6,166 EO Items, Others - - - - - Closing Cash & Equivalents 7,809 3,993 5,797 9,151 15,347 Key Ratios FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E PROFITABILITY (%) GPM 61.1 62.0 60.9 60.0 61.5 EBITDA Margin 16.9 17.1 16.0 17.4 19.2 APAT Margin 14.7 15.2 10.7 12.3 14.6 RoE 20.7 21.9 14.8 16.8 20.0 RoIC (or Core RoCE) 26.2 30.0 16.5 19.6 24.5 RoCE 19.7 21.6 14.5 16.2 19.0 EFFICIENCY Tax Rate (%) 19.0 6.2 31.1 20.0 18.0 Fixed Asset Turnover (x) 4.3 3.6 2.8 2.5 2.5 Inventory (days) 65.8 75.2 81.8 66.4 64.9 Debtors (days) 41.0 44.5 61.3 41.6 41.6 Other Current Assets (days) 17.1 19.0 37.3 42.5 39.7 Payables (days) 42.0 46.2 54.5 42.4 41.4 Other Current Liab & Provns (days) 30.8 30.0 39.4 34.1 35.9 Cash Conversion Cycle (days) 51.2 62.4 86.5 74.0 68.9 Debt/EBITDA (x) 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.5 Net D/E (x) (0.2) (0.1) (0.0) (0.1) (0.2) Interest Coverage (x) 10.7 19.9 16.0 17.2 32.4 PER SHARE DATA (Rs) EPS 62.0 74.6 57.6 73.1 100.5 Dividend 6.1 15.0 10.1 13.9 19.1 Book Value 308.8 373.7 406.8 463.4 541.3 VALUATION P/E (x) 33.1 27.5 35.6 28.1 20.4 P/BV (x) 6.6 5.5 5.0 4.4 3.8 EV/EBITDA (x) 28.0 24.2 23.7 19.4 14.7 EV/Revenues (x) 4.7 4.1 3.8 3.4 2.8 OCF/EV (%) 3.0 2.1 2.4 4.5 5.3 FCF/EV (%) 2.0 (0.4) (0.0) 2.2 3.6 FCFE/Mkt Cap (%) 0.8 (0.3) 1.5 2.2 3.6 Dividend Yield (%) 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.9 Page 7
RECOMMENDATION HISTORY Alkem 2,500 2,300 2,100 1,900 1,700 TP Date CMP Reco Target 12-Aug-17 1,706 BUY 2,000 10-Oct-17 1,878 BUY 2,060 11-Nov-17 1,945 BUY 2,100 11-Jan-18 2,283 BUY 2,560 11-Feb-18 2,179 BUY 2,435 13-Apr-18 1,758 BUY 2,124 31-May-18 1,983 BUY 2,445 13-Jun-18 1,983 BUY 2,445 10-Jul-18 1,909 BUY 2,445 11-Aug-18 2,060 BUY 2,410 1,500 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Rating Definitions BUY : Where the stock is expected to deliver more than 10% returns over the next 12 month period NEUTRAL : Where the stock is expected to deliver (-)10% to 10% returns over the next 12 month period SELL : Where the stock is expected to deliver less than (-)10% returns over the next 12 month period Page 8
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