Transportation Research Board NHTS for Transportation Decision Making Washington D.C. June 6, 2011
To identify new or emerging travel behaviors, technologies and perspectives that may affect future travel demand, preferences and needs as they relate to transportation policy.
1. Literature Scan: Completed Written by FHWA-Office of Policy, Transportation Studies (FHWA-HPTS) Added Technology and Regulatory Section: Jack Faucett and Associates (JFA) 2. Cohort Study: Underway 3. Nationwide Focus Groups (JFA) 4. Scenario Development (HPTS, JFA) 5. Final Report (HPTS)
Built the Interstate & Highway System in America Most Technologically Savvy & they admit it. Land Use changed beginning in 1946 Dog-tired soldiers can t come home There aren t any houses Detroit Free Press Silent (65+)
What Affects Travel Behavior? Life Cycle Effects: Age, Income, Children, Worker Status, Household Size, Vehicle Ownership, Lifestyle Period Effects: Economic Downturns, Social Movements, Major Events and Catastrophes, Medical, Scientific or Technological Breakthroughs
Average Annual VMT per Person 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 Respondent Age 2009 NHTS Average VMT by Age 2001 NHTS Average VMT by Age 1995 NPTS Average VMT by Age 1990 NPTS Average VMT by Age 1983 NPTS Average VMT by Age Source: NHTS Data Program 1983-2009
20,000 $100 Average Annual VMT per Person 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 Annual Average Mileage Median Household Income $90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 Annual Household Income (Thousands) 4,000 $20 2,000 $10 0 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 $0 Respondent Age Source: NHTS Data Program 2009
16,000 Vehicle Miles per Driver 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Our Nation s Highways, FHWA 2010
85 percent of the total population has Internet access from any location. Of persons aged 18-34: 72 percent (if given a choice) would eliminate TV over the Internet 78 percent have a social networking profile page on Facebook 62 percent use Twitter on a monthly basis (18 th Edison Research/Arbitron Internet and Multimedia Study, 2010) Online social media tools and networking sites have made their way into half of all State DOT communication programs Increased mobile phone use to send and receive messages 94 percent of persons aged 18-34 use their phone for text messaging, 2010 (Pew Center)
Cohort Analysis Definition: Any study in which there are measures of some characteristic of one or more cohorts (birth or otherwise) at two or more points in time. Strategy: To examine trends and to try, by various means, to decide to what extent the trends reflect influences associated with life cycle rather than period influences.
Survey Year Average Annual VMT (per person) % Change 16-30 31-55 56+ 16-30 31-55 56+ 1995 9,872 12,446 7,081 - - - 2001 9,748 12,892 7,951-1.25 3.58 12.28 2009 7,319 11,493 7,787-24.9-10.8-2.06 Survey Year Annual Average PMT (per person) % Change 16-30 31-55 56+ 16-30 31-55 56+ 1995 15,524 17,041 11,309 - - - 2001 15,552 18,299 12,220 0.18 7.38 8.05 2009 12,253 16,214 11,704-21.2-11.3-4.2
Annual Vehicle Miles 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 16 to 19 20 to 34 35 to 54 55 to 64 65+ 0 1969 1977 1983 1990 1995 2001 2009 NPTS and NHTS Data Program
Person Miles in Millions 500,000 450,000 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 1995 2001 2009 Source: NPTS, NHTS Data Program 1995, 2001, 2009
1) Will they travel differently in the future? Online communication Housing and workplace location Mode use, car pool and car share Type of vehicles New transportation technologies Privacy concerns Paying for transportation system use 2) What are the major influencers of travel demand and mode choice for younger populations?
Age by Daily Web Use 80.0% 70.0% 2009 2001 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% 16-20 21-25 26-30 31-35 36-40 41-45 46-50 51-55 56-60 61-65 66-70 71-75 76-80 81-85 86+ Source: NHTS Data Program 2001, 2009
Large circles mean heavy internet use while smaller circles mean no internet use Brown circles are urban drivers while peach circles are rural drivers Source: NHTS Data Program 2009
Avg. PURCHASE 3.00 2.80 2.60 2.40 2.20 2.00 1.80 1.60 1.40 1.20 1.00 0.80 0.60 0.40 0.20 0.00 VMT Online Purchase 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 9 10 11 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 52 56 60 64 68 72 76 80 84 88 Avg. YEARMILE (in thousands) Source: NHTS Data Program 2009
Young people will continue to be frequent users of the Internet well into their older years In urban areas, there is a link between high Internet usage and increased VMT In rural areas, the opposite case exists mainly with younger populations, that high Internet usage is linked to less VMT There is a strong correlation between online purchases and VMT among all age groups; however, this may be an indirect correlation of income
Suburban metro areas have grown and continue to grow in population --Suburban areas are seen as car dependent --Much of today s travel is suburb to suburb (NHTS, 2001) Currently, two-thirds of the nation s population live in large metropolitan areas (The Brookings Institute, 2010) Employment and housing prices have the greatest effect on the choices of where people decide to live (The Brookings Institute, 2005)
Higher VMT Least urban Most urban Source: NHTS Data Program 2009
As the nation becomes more urbanized, young people may travel less by car As young people become accustomed to living in a large metropolitan areas with more public transit and land use that supports other travel options, their use of other modes may increase As multigenerational housing increases*, young people may become more apt to car share * An increase of 4.8 percent to 6.1 percent from 2000-2010, AARP Public Policy Institute analysis of Current Population Survey Data
Worker Status More telecommuting? Vehicle Ownership Would they rather be a passenger than a driver? Will they be driving more zip cars? Education Life Style: What are young people doing with their time? How much of it will be spent traveling? And will it have a lasting effect?
20 18 Average VMT (in thousands) 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 Employed Unemployed (2001, 2009) (2001, 2009) 2 0 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 52 56 60 64 68 72 76 80 84 Source: NHTS Data Program 2001, 2009
Percentage of Households 60 50 40 30 20 10 Percentage of Households By Number of Vehicles No Vehicle 1 Vehicle 2 Vehicle 3 or more 0 1969 1977 1983 1990 1995 2001 2009 Source: NHTS Data Program 1969-2001
18% 4% 14% 0% 2% 0% 0% Types of Vehicles Ages 16-30 62% Automobile/car/station wagon Van (mini, cargo, passenger) Sports utility vehicle Pickup truck Other truck RV (recreational vehicle)
Category EDUC 01 Less than high school graduate 02 High school graduate, including GED 03 Some college or Associate s degree (Vocatio 04 Bachelor s degree (BA, AB, BS) 05 Graduate or Professional Degree Darker red means more education Lighter red means less education Source: NHTS Data Program 2009
VMT PMT Trip purpose distribution Average Trip Distance Trip Rates Mode Share Gender Location of HH in urban area Worker status Education Student status Web use HH size HH income Ethnicity Lifecycle (i.e. children)
Contact: Erica Interrante, Transportation Specialist FHWA Office of Policy, HPTS erica.interrante@dot.gov, (202) 366-5048 Mary Lynn Tischer, Director Heather Contrino, Policy Analysis Team Lead Cindy Hatley, Transportation Specialist