CERTIFICATE COURSE ON FUNDAMENTAL & TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF STOCKS INCLUDING EQUITY RESEARCH Objective: The course is meant for the young brigade of upcoming analysts in the industry of share market, stock market and includes technical and basic fundamental analysis. Fundamental analysis is a stock valuation methodology that uses financial and economic analysis to envisage the movement of stock prices. The fundamental data that is analyzed could include a Company s Financial Reports and Non-Financial information such as estimates of its growth, demand for products sold by the Company, Industry Comparisons, Economy-wide changes, Changes in Government Policies etc. Fundamental Analysis focuses on the economic forces of Demand & Supply that causes prices to move Higher, Lower or stay the same. A Fundamental Approach examines all the relevant factors affecting the price of a market in order to determine the intrinsic value of the market. Technical Analysis is the Study of Market Action, primarily through the use of charts, for the purpose of forecasting future price trends. It could also be said the study of any market that uses the prices and Volume information only in order to forecast future price movement and trends. Technical Analysis is, in essence, the observation of the market itself with a view to deducing its probable next move from its past and current behaviour. Technical Analysis Course is an art of Income Generation from stock market, commodity market, forex market trades. Technical analysis is all about studying stock price graphs and a few momentum oscillators derived thereof. It must be understood that technical studies are based entirely on prices and do not include balance sheets, P&L accounts (fundamental analysis), the assumption being that the markets are efficient and all possible price sensitive information is built into the price graph of a security / index. Therefore, technical analysis (crowd analysis) supports the efficient market theory as against the random walk theory which supports the belief that stocks can be bought / sold on random events like flipping a coin!!! Technical analysis is more dynamic as compared to fundamental analysis based on one simple argument fundamental analysts depend on corporate events like quarterly results, annual results and special announcements like earnings guidance and policy changes in operations to generate a buy / sell recommendation.
The principles of technical analysis are derived from hundreds of years of financial market data. Some aspects of technical analysis began to appear in Joseph de la Vega s accounts of the Dutch markets in the 17th century. In Asia, technical analysis is said to be a method developed by Homma Munehisa during early 18th century which evolved into the use of candlestick techniques, and is today a technical analysis charting tool. In the 1920s and 1930s Richard W. Schabacker published several books which continued the work of Charles Dow and William Peter Hamilton in their books Stock Market Theory and Practice and Technical Market Analysis. In 1948 Robert D. Edwards and John Magee published Technical Analysis of Stock Trends which is widely considered to be one of the seminal works of the discipline. It is exclusively concerned with trend analysis and chart patterns and remains in use to the present. As is obvious, early technical analysis was almost exclusively the analysis of charts, because the processing power of computers was not available for statistical analysis. Charles Dow reportedly originated a form of point and figure chart analysis. Dow theory is seen as a mother theory of Technical Analysis Course and Training in world. Part 1: Fundamental Analysis 1. Fundamental Analysis What is Fundamental Analysis - Learn the methods used by analysts to evaluate past, current and projected conditions Analysing performance of the firm using techniques like horizontal analysis, vertical analysis and ratio analysis Global Economics Concept of Risk - Reward 2. Value Investing Macro & Micro Macro Industry and Economy Micro Company Analysis Art of reading Annual report Inferences on management quality o Management Discussion & Analysis Different strokes o Director s reports structure and key observations
o Understanding the nature of key accounting policies o Auditors report o How to gauge management quality? The key pointers. o The laws that regulate Annual report structure o Process of consolidation some fundamentals o Understanding the corporate structure Critical Analysis of Financial Statements o Capital Employed, Capital intensity, Margin profiles o Volume profiles, Industry leverage, RoCE and RoE decomposition Ratio Analysis and Cash Flow Statements Asset, Portfolio and Sectoral Allocation 3. Factors affecting Fundamental Analysis Global and National Events Political, Economic & Social events Commodity prices, Currency movement, Interest rate movement VC/ PE Investor Financial Planner 4. Behavioural Finance Psychological evidence into economics prospect theory, biases in probabilistic judgment, self-control and mental accounting with implications for consumption and savings, financial market anomalies and theories, impact of markets, learning, and incentives, and memory, attention, categorization, and the thinking process. Part 2: Valuation
5. Basic Concepts Valuation Introduction to Valuation Fairness Opinion Independent Valuer Need to value companies Difference between price and value Different terms of value Market value Intrinsic value Valuation Techniques Absolute Valuation 6. Valuation Fundamentals Estimating Discount Rates Estimating Risk free rate, Estimating CAPM, Estimating Beta Cost of Debt Estimating Cash Flow Earnings, Capex, Adjusting operating income & operating expenses Tax assumption Normalizes expenses Working capital effect Debt, interest effect. Dealing with Operating leases Off Balance sheet item Estimating Growth and Terminal Value Length of growth period Estimating stable growth rates and excess return Industry and company s current and historical average. Growth in EPS, Net income Equity and Firm Value - DCF Model Valuation with stable Growth Valuation with two- stage growth and H-model Valuation using FCFF and FCFE Analysing capital structure of the company Enterprise and Equity Multiples Estimating equity multiple for high growth and stable
companies Comparing PE / PB across companies Estimating Firm and Enterprise value using multiple Comparing EV/ Operating Income Comparing EV/ Capital Ratios Comparing EV/ Sales Ratio Employee stock option valuation Fully diluted approach to valuation Valuation with stable Growth 7. Advanced Valuation Valuation Case Study Part 3: Financial Modelling 8. Financial Modelling - Basics Understanding the Financial Statements and its interlinking: Income Statement, Balance Sheet, Cash Flow Statement Ratio Analysis, Liquidity Ratio, Profitability Ratio, Solvency Ratio, Leverage Ratio, Activity/Turnover Ratio Basic and Diluted EPS ROE and DUPONT Analysis Case study on Ratio Analysis Introduction to Valuation Free Cash flow to Firm (FCFF) Free Cash flow to Equity (FCFE) Cost of Equity (Ke), Cost of Debt (Kd), Cost of Capital (WACC) Relative Valuation Equity based Multiples: P/E, P/BV, P/S & PEG Firm based Multiples: EV/EBITDA, EV/EBIT & EV/Sales
9. Financial Modelling - Integrated Model Making a complete fully integrated DCF Modelling Spreadsheet Understanding and creating a financial model template Calculating Growth Drivers and Future Assumptions Revenue Build-Up - Projecting the Future Revenues Cost Build-Up - Projecting the Future Cost Modelling historical & projected financial statements - P&L and B/S Building cash flow statement Asset and Depreciation Schedule Debt and Interest Schedule Building an integrated model for valuation using DCF Sensitivity/Scenario Analysis Incorporating other accounting details like revenue recognition, deferred taxes etc. Trading Comparables Introduction to Trading Comps EV Calculation Discussing various CACS Adjustments Income Statement Normalization Concept of LTM or TTM Trading Multiples analysis - EV/EBITDA, EV/EBIT, EV/Sales Transaction Comparables Introduction to Transaction Comps Understanding Deal Considerations Introduction to Transaction Template Private and Public Transaction Comp Transaction Multiples analysis - EV/EBITDA, EV/EBIT, EV/Sales Part 4: Technical Analysis 10. Technical Analysis Introduction To Technical Analysis What it is? Why and how it works? Basic Principles, Philosophy -The concept of support and
resistance, Chart types and scaling, Retracement and Projections, Trend line Systems Weekly, monthly, yearly & hourly chart, Support & resistance, Advance decline ratio Scope and Objective Dow Theory The market ( the index ) discounts everything, three trends, primary trends, secondary trends, minor trends, bull market, bear market, Volume goes with the trend and a trend should be assumed to continue in effect until such time as its reversal has been definitely signaled 11. Technical Analysis Important Reversal Patterns, Continuation Price Patterns Head & shoulder reversal pattern, Rounding top and rounding bottom formation, Triangles - symmetrical triangles, ascending - right angle triangle, descending - right angle triangle, Rectangles, Double and triple tops & bottoms (major reversal pattern), The broadening formations, The diamond, The wedge, Flags(continuation pattern only ), The pennant - a pointed flag ( continuation pattern only ) Gaps - Common gaps, Breakaway gaps, Continuation gaps or runaway gaps, Exhaustion gaps, Island reversal Candlesticks - Basic definition, Patterns - Hammer & hanging man, Engulfing pattern, Harami, Harami cross, Piercing line, Dark cloud cover, Doji star, Morning star and evening star, Abandoned baby, Meeting lines, Three white soldiers, Advance block, Unique three river bottom, Three black crows, Two crows, Three inside up and three inside down, Three stars in the south, Concealing baby swallow, Stick sandwich, Kicking, Homing pigeon, Matching low, Upside gap two crows, Side-by side white lines, Rising three methods and falling three methods, Upside tasuki gap and downside tasuki gap. Rising three methods and falling three methods, Separating lines, Three line strike, Upside gap three methods and downside gap three methods, On neck, Thrusting, In neck Trend lines and Trend channels - Trend lines, Trend channels, 3 Fan Trend lines
Volume Observations 12. Technical Analysis Moving Averages - Origin, definition and formula - Types of moving average, Simple moving average, Exponential moving averages, Time series, market psychology, trading rules Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) and MACD Histogram: How to create macd, Market psychology, Macd histogram, Trading rules Momentum Indicators - Introduction, Overbought and oversold, Divergences Support & Resistance Rate of Change - Basic definition, Method of calculating, Interpretation & trading rules Divergences Relative Strength Index - Basic definition, Method of calculating, Interpretation & trading rules, Divergences Stochastic - Basic definition, Method of calculating, Interpretation & trading rules, Divergences Oscillator Basics, Oscillator Studies Miscellaneous Indicators / trading methods and systems - Speed resistance lines, Bollinger bands (standard deviation channels), Envelope, Williams R, Chalking oscillator, CCI, On balance volume Fibonacci Studies - Fibonacci arcs, Fibonacci fans, Fibonacci retracements, Fibonacci time zones, Fibonacci days & weeks Principles of W. D. Gann - Trading rules, Gann angles 13. Technical Analysis Elliot Wave theory - Basic tenets of Elliot wave theory, Basic 5 waves, Corrective 3 waves, Guidelines of wave formation, The Fibonacci sequence Designing Analysis Framework, Designing Trading Framework & Systems Back testing strategies & ideas Software available, Algo Trading Systems
Trading and investments with technical analysis in stocks, currencies and commodities a practical approach, Live technical session 14. Derivatives - Futures and Options Futures Basics: Futures Product Specifications, Open Interest, Mark-to-Market Margining Option Basics: Concept, Time Decay; Strike prices Basic Put-Call strategies Strategy: Futures: Stock and Index Futures, Basket - Pair Trading, Basis Trading Synthetics: Synthetic Call and Put strategies, Synthetic Futures Strategies Strategy: Spread Strategies; Exotic Strategies; Covered Call Strategies Pricing: Futures Pricing: Cost of Carry, Expectation Hypothesis, Fair Value Pricing, Option Pricing: How to leverage it for derivatives trading, Put-Call Parity, American and European Options Pricing, Dividend and non-dividend Paying Stocks Strategy - Greeks: Delta Neutral strategies, Delta - Gamma neutrality, Delta v/s Time; Delta v/s Volatility; Gamma v/s Time and Volatility, Vega, Theta and Rho; Volatility Trading Strategies. Forecasting using Options and Futures: Put - Call Ratio; Volatility Forecasting Futures: Forecasting Strategies: Open Interest - Volume and Price Patterns, Volatility Index Live derivative session Part 5: Others 15. Others Arbitrage and Hedging: Futures - Futures and Cash - Futures; Options Arbitrage Hedging: Types of Risk: Basis Risk, Systematic and
Unsystematic Risk Utilities of a Hedge for Mutual Funds Cross Hedging; Protective Put, Fencing Strategies, Portfolio Hedging Strategies, Tailing the Hedge - Case - Live Portfolio Hedge Funds 16. Others Accounting, IFRS and US GAAP and Taxation Bond Markets Mutual Fund Industry Equity Funds Analysis Sharpe Ratio, Beta, Jensen s Alpha, Treynor s Ratio, Expense Ratio, Tracking Error, Asset Allocation, Portfolio Turnover, Standard Deviation, SIP Benefit, Comparative Performance over past 1/ 3/ 5 years, Investment Styles, Portfolio Changes in Various Schemes, etc. Debt Funds Analysis Bonds Basics, Inverse Relationship, Interest Rate Sensitivity, Liquid, Floating Rate, Gilt & Income Funds, Bond Indices, Average Maturity, Portfolio Management Styles, etc. Financial Planning Life Insurance Cover Calculation, Retirement Planning, Analyzing Sample Portfolios of Investors, Using MS Excel for Simple Financial Planning, Monthly Budgeting and Monitoring, Net Worth Calculation and Building, Goal Setting & Reaching Target, Taxation, etc. Practical Exercises Analyzing Schemes, Developing Personal Financial Plans, Setting Goals and Targets, Working out Various Permutations / Combinations Amongst Schemes Investment strategies of successful global investors 17. Financial Markets Regulations Governing Financial Markets Regulatory Authority Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI)
Forward Markets Commission (India) (FMC) Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority (IRDA) Pension Fund Regulatory and Development Authority (PFRDA) Ministry of Corporate Affairs (MCA) Part 6: Project Work 18. Project Work Project Work Project Work o Visit to broker firm, Visit to company, attending management conference call o Preparing Financial Model o Determining Company s valuation o Preparing Research Report