Belize benefits from knowledge and experiences from the PPCR Disaster Risk Management in the Caribbean Case Study: Rapid Damage and Loss Assessment following the 2013 Disaster Photo Credit: http://gov.vc Keren Carla Charles Disaster Risk Management Specialist Consultant World Bank
Overview Impacts of Natural Disaster in the Caribbean World Bank Disaster Risk Management Engagement Case Study: Rapid Damage and Loss Assessment Photo Credit: http://www.belizecitytours.net
Average losses due to extreme weather events for selected LAC countries from 1992-2011 Average Annual Losses per GDP (%) Deaths per 100,000 inhabitants 10 5 0 0 2.5 5 (1) (4) (5) (7) (8) (10) (15) (16) (20) (23) (29) (30) Grenada Dominica St. Kitts & Nevis Belize AB Antigua & Barbuda Honduras St. Lucia Nicaragua Guyana Haiti El Salvador Jamaica (8) (52) (43) (19) (14) (2) (26) (4) (128) (3) (28) (73) () indicate Global Rank of 183 countries or territories evaluated. Showing the top 12 for the region. Sorted by Losses per GDP (%) Source: Harmeling, S. and Eckstein D. Global Climate Risk Index 2013. Germanwatch, November 2012. http://germanwatch.org/fr/download/7170.pdf
Losses from disasters are fiscal shocks, which often result in budgetary deficits & increased debt 200% Select Damages from Disasters as a % of GDP Hurricane: Ivan Caribbean HydroMet Caribbean Earthquake Central Am. HydroMet Central Am. Earthquake 150% Hurricane: Georges Earthquake 100% 50% Hurricane: Allen Hurricane: Gilbert Hurricane: Luis Hurricanes: Luis & Marilyn Hurricane: Luis Hurricane: Mitch Flood Hurricane: Tomas 0% St Lucia - 1980 Jamaica - 1988 AB Antigua - 1995 & Dominica - 1995 Barbuda - 1995 St. Kitts & Honduras - Nevis - 1995 1998 St. Kitts & Nevis - 1998 Grenada - 2004 Guyana - 2005 Haiti - 2010 St Lucia - 2010 Source: Various, including ECLAC reports, EM-DAT database and country reports.
Institutional, Political, Normative and Financial Context World Bank engages with countries through an integrated disaster risk management strategy Understanding Risk Risk assessment and risk communication Risk Reduction Structural and non-structural measure e.g. infrastructure, land-use planning, policies and regulation Early warning systems; support of emergency measures; contingency planning Risk Financing Assessing and reducing contingent liabilities; budget appropriation and execution; ex-ante and ex-post financing instruments Recovery Resilient recovery and reconstruction policies; ex-ante design of institutional structures
Understanding Risk: World Bank is supporting countries in collecting quantitative risk information Urban Planning and Infrastructure Design Rapid Disaster Impact Estimation RISK INFORMATION Integration of Climate Change projections Macroeconomic Planning, Disaster Risk Financing and insurance, Post- Disaster Budget Execution Professional and Institutional Capacity Development Source: GFDRR.
Risk Reduction: World Bank engages with countries through physical and capacity building investments Territorial and sectorial planning, building codes Mitigation works, structural reinforcement Slope Stabilizations Coastal Defenses River Training Rehabilitation/ Reconstruction of Emergency Shelters and Public Buildings Education, creation of a culture of prevention Institutional planning, strengthening
Source: Mahul and Ghesquierre. Risk Financing: Countries face different financing needs after disasters and require comprehensive strategy
Rapid DaLA Recovery: Case Study Case Study in Conducting Rapid Damage and Loss Assessment (DaLAs) for the Flash Flooding Events on December 24-25, 2013 in St. Vincent & the Grenadines (SVG) and St. Lucia (SLU) 9
Overview Disaster Event Regional/Country Context Rapid DaLA Objectives Rapid DaLA Results Human Impact Economic Impact Rapid DaLA Methodology Limitations Lessons Learned Next Steps 10 Photo Credit: World Bank
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Barbados Doppler Radar SVG SLU Dec 24, 2013 9:00 10:00 PM > 100 mm/hr MAX SCALE 27mm/hr Dec 24, 2013 4:00 5:00 PM > 75 mm/hr 12 278 mm in SVG and 224 mm in SLU over 3 hours represent a 1 in 100 year event for both islands
Map of the Caribbean Photo Credit: http://www.geographicguide.com/caribbean-map.htm 13
Damages from Disasters are Increasing in the Caribbean Damages from Disasters (US$ millions) $4,000 $2,000 $0 Source: EM-DAT 1961-1970 1971-1980 1981-1990 1991-2000 2001-2010 Photo Credit: World Bank
Profiles of SVG and SLU SVG SLU Population 109,373 180,870 Poverty Head Count, % 30 28 GDP (US$ billion) 0.71 1.24 GNI per capita (US$) 6,400 6,890 External Debt (% of GDP) 70 78 Source: World Bank Development Indicators (2012) Photo Credit: World Bank 15
The Human Impact 33,000 people directly impacted o 13,000 in SVG and 20,000 in SLU 15 killed o 9 in SVG and 6 in SLU 775 persons displaced o 225 in SVG and 550 in SLU 702 homes damaged or destroyed o 662 in SVG and 40 in SLU Photo Credit: World Bank 16
The poorest areas got the most rainfall: SVG Maximum Rainfall Intensity in 3 Hours, Dec 24 Poverty Head Count, 2008 Max. 278 mm/3 hr Min. 63 mm/3 hr 17
The poorest areas got the most rainfall: SLU Maximum Rainfall Intensity in 3 Hours, Dec 24 Poverty Gap, 2005/06 Max. 224 mm/ 3 hr Min. 94 mm/ 3 hr 18
Over 80% of Damages and Losses in Infrastructure Photo Credit: World Bank
The Human Impact Photo Credit: World Bank 20
Overview Caribbean Disaster Losses and trends Country Profiles Disaster Event Impacts Response to the Disaster House that collapsed from slope failure where family of 5 died. Photo Credit: World Bank 21
Damage and Losses: SVG Sector Damages (USD millions) Losses (USD millions) Total Damages and Losses (USD millions) Infrastructure Transport $67.9 $14.7 $82.6 Water & $3.1 $1.3 $4.5 Sanitation Electricity $5.2 $3.3 $8.6 Social Sectors Housing $6.8 $2.3 $9.1 Health $1.8 $0.2 $2.1 Education NE <$0.1 <$0.1 Productive Sectors Agriculture $1.4 NE $1.4 Tourism $0.1 $0.1 $0.2 Industry & Commerce NE <$0.1 <$0.1 Total $86.3 $22.0 $108.4 Infrastructure 88% Social 10% Productive 2% 15% of GDP 22
Damage and Losses: SLU Sector Damages (USD millions) Losses (USD millions) Total Damages and Losses (USD millions) Infrastructure Transport $68.8 $3.1 $71.9 Water & $2.3 $4.1 $6.4 Sanitation Telecom $0.1 $0.4 $0.5 Social Sectors Housing $2.15 $1.6 $3.7 Health $0.2 $0.1 $0.3 Education $0.8 $0.1 $0.9 Productive Sectors Agriculture $5.2 $7.7 $12.9 Tourism NE $2.1 $2.1 Industry & Commerce $0.4 NE $0.4 Total $79.9 $19.3 $99.4 Infrastructure 79% Social 5% Productive 16% 8% of GDP 23
Response to the Disaster SVG declared a state of emergency on December 26, 2013 SLU activated its National Disaster Plan on December 26, 2013 The National Emergency Management Organizations (NEMO) in SVG and SLU focused on immediate needs for relief The Governments effected initial emergency response: shelters were provided, debris was cleared, infrastructure repairs were initiated The international community was quick to respond with humanitarian aid from the Red Cross, the Caribbean Development Bank, and other Caribbean countries The Governments and World Bank coordinated a rapid Damage and Loss Assessment in January 2014 24
DaLA Based on ECLAC methodology and Field Guide to management information post disaster Rapid DaLA Methodology Mobilize a small team to prepare the report Compare the data with base line Work closely with the national authorities Verify data through field visits (sampling) Estimate the damage & losses with available info Report the possible gaps Include the added value of works & studies to improve
Limitations Photo Credit: World Bank Cross-sectoral fields unexplored Micro-economic impacts underestimated Rural or tertiary roads not included in the assessment 26
Lessons Learned Use available information/proxies (SitReps, maps of hazards, socio-economic statistics, etc) Establish contact with national authorities for each sector early in the process Conduct interviews with people affected to better understand the event Identify gaps and alert authorities Present the report to national authorities for feedback as quickly as possible Photo Credit: World Bank 27
Outcomes: SVG and SLU able to mobilize international aid SVG SLU Financing Needs (USD millions) Financing Source Amount (USD millions) Financing Gap (USD millions) WB Regional Disaster Vulnerability Reduction Project $5.9 Mexico $5.0 WB Crisis Response Window $19.0 $108.4 $29.9 $78.5 WB Hurricane Tomas Emergency Recovery Project $1.0 WB Disaster Vulnerability Reduction Project $2.0 WB Crisis Response Window $17.0 Caribbean Development Bank $1.0 * Under preparation ** Under Implementation $99.4 $21.0 $78.4 SVG Funding Gap SLU Funding Gap Financing Gap 72% Financing Mobilized 28% Financing Gap 79% Financing Mobilized 21% 28
Annex 29
Understanding Risk: Risk Information System
Risk Reduction: Disaster risk reduction benefits measured by future savings due to avoided disaster losses Cost/ day ($/day) Average Rate of Return Direct Losses Savings t 1 t 2 Risk Disaster Reduction Investment (I) t n Loss without retrofitting (L w/o ) Loss with retrofitting (L w ) Maintenance Time
Risk Financing: Disaster related aid inconsistent and insufficient to cover to need Disaster Aid and Historical Loss (US$ millions) $10,000 $5,000 $0 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Historical Loss Disaster Related Aid Source: GFDRR Disaster Aid Tracking Database and EM-DAT (Latin America and the Caribbean)
Risk Financing: The World Bank is engaging Caribbean countries in developing disaster risk financing strategies Understand fiscal risk from natural disasters Strengthen the catastrophe risk insurance framework Build a cost-efficient sovereign DRFI strategy Integrate disaster risk into a comprehensive risk management framework/ strategy Share knowledge through South-South exchange 33
Probability of the Event Severity of the Impact Risk Financing: Different Financial instruments are used to manage different types of risk Layers Risk Retention Risk Transfer Disaster Risk Financial Instruments to Manage Disaster Risk Low High High Risk Layer (e.g., large earthquakes, tropical storms, hurricanes) Disaster Risk Insurance (e.g., parametric insurance, catastrophe bonds) Medium Risk Layer (e.g., floods, minor earthquakes) Contingent Lines of Credit High Low Low Risk Layer (e.g., local floods, landslides) Contingent Budgets, Reserves, Annual Budget Allocations