EARN 38 to 54%+ Returns Spending Under 30 Minutes a Day. Presented by: Todd Mitchell CEO & Founder Trading Concepts, Inc.

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CONTENTS. Five Simple Trading Strategies That Work

State Modeling User Guide

Transcription:

EARN 38 to 54%+ Returns Spending Under 30 Minutes a Day Presented by: Todd Mitchell CEO & Founder Trading Concepts, Inc.

Who is Todd Mitchell? I have been involved with the markets and actively trading for 28 years (since 1988). My interest in the markets began in high school when I used to manually update my father s charts. Since 1994 I have mentored thousands of traders. My passion is not only trading, but teaching and empowering other traders to be successful too. I m known most for day trading the E-Mini S&P 500 although I do trade most all markets using various strategies. I ve seen it all, I know what works and what doesn t. Trading Concepts, Inc. 2

I ve been featured in Eddie Z s and Russ Hazelcorn s book Trading Concepts, Inc. 3

Agenda I have roughly an hour, possibly a bit more, of material that I want to go through with you today. Any questions that you decide to type in during our presentation, I will answer them for you at the end of this webinar. YES I will be recording today s session so if you cannot attend the entire webinar, you ll be able to view the material later. I will also provide you with these slides in a PDF when I m finished producing the video recording. Trading Concepts, Inc. 4

Legal Disclaimer No claim is made by Trading Concepts, Inc. that the trading strategies shown here will result in profits and will not result in losses. Trading may not be suitable for all recipients of this Training Program. All comments, trading strategies, techniques, concepts and methods shown within our Course are not and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell stocks, ETFs, futures, foreign currencies, and/or options they are opinions based on market observation and years of experience. Therefore, the thoughts expressed are not guaranteed to produce profits in any way. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Each trader/investor is responsible for his/her own actions, if any. Your opt-in to this information constitutes your agreement to this disclaimer and exempts Trading Concepts, Inc. from any liability or litigation. Trading Concepts, Inc. 5

In Today s webinar you will learn 1) Reasons YOU need to incorporate algorithmic swing trading systems in your overall trading 2) The importance of swing trading 3) The facts of short-term market behavior 4) 4 KEY Principles of Successful Swing Trading 5) Building a Trading strategy with an EDGE 6) Dynamic exits vs. hard stops 7) $50,000 to $67,245 in a little more than 6 month s 8) How to learn 5 Algorithmic Trading Systems that have EARNED 38% to 54%+ Annual Returns since 2007 Trading Concepts, Inc. 6

I ve been Swing Trading for over 17 years now, and in the last 6 years I ve been learning, researching, experimenting & working with top algorithmic, quant based traders looking for a way to swing trade mechanically that would enable me to make good annual returns in less than 30 minutes a day after the market closes. Trading Concepts, Inc. 7

With the entire universe of Stocks and ETFs out there I needed to come up with a mechanical way to find the best of the best, the cream of the crop trades based on objective rules that are setting up for the next trading day. Trading Concepts, Inc. 8

Within the last 3 years I found what I was looking for I use Algorithmic Systems with an EDGE that puts the odds of success in my favor They were built to be simple and consistent They were developed by me and a professional quant based trader/researcher Every system data point and trade management rule has been meticulously considered and refined Use no leverage It takes less than 30 minutes each night after the market closes I let the market come to me and enter trades with Limit Orders Exits are based on an indicator and not a fixed number nor percentage These systems use a formula to determine position sizing Again, this takes me NO MORE THAN 30 MINUTES A DAY, there is NO DISCRETION ON MY PART, and ALL of my work is done AFTER the CLOSE. Trading Concepts, Inc. 9

So, what is a good reasonable return? Let s quickly take a look at Warren Buffett Between 1957 and 1969, Warren Buffett s hedge fund returned 23.8% after expenses vs. 7.4% for the DJIA before he decided to close up his fund because he thought the market was top heavy. He was only making money when the market was going up he didn t even think about strategies that could make money when the market went down! Buffett came back into the market in late 1973 thinking the market was ready for a big advance again. From 1973 to late 1982 he averaged roughly 28% a year. After 1983, Buffett managed to beat the market by more than 10% annually. Since 2000, Warren Buffett managed to beat the market by 6 percentage points annually. These types of returns, consistently, is what creates multi-millionaires, if not billionaires, over a long period of time. Trading Concepts, Inc. 10

The Algorithmic Trading Systems I personally use are based on the premise of everything you re going to learn here today! Trading Concepts, Inc. 11

What is a Trading Algorithm? Algorithm: a set of rules that precisely defines a sequence of operations. This includes all computer programs, even programs that do not perform numeric calculations. It is a set of instructions used to accomplish a given task. Trading Concepts, Inc. 12

A Trading Algorithm is just a computerized model that incorporates the rules you would follow when entering or exiting a trade. Trading Concepts, Inc. 13

Swing Trading Swing Trading is the art of profiting from short term price movement spanning a few days to a few weeks looking to take just a portion of the move. Swing Traders are rarely invested 100% and would rather carefully select the perfect setup to enter and exit positions. Trading Concepts, Inc. 14

Swing Trading enables you to allocate your money into several trades a day to take advantage of current opportunities in the market (different sectors & asset classes) without tying up all of your capital or time in front of a computer. Trading Concepts, Inc. 15

All of my trades are placed the night before, or before market opens, each trading day and typically last no more than 4 days. Trading Concepts, Inc. 16

The Algorithmic Swing Trading Systems I use are based on the Mean Reversion principle Mean Reversion is the assumption that a stock's price will tend to move to the average price over time. When the price has deviated significantly from the mean, a trade is taken with the expectation that the price will revert to the mean. So, we will be buying low and selling higher. In other words, buy when prices are unusually low, with the expectation that they will return to more normal values. Trading Concepts, Inc. 17

DO = 3/9 3/11; 21.42 23.02 STZ = 2/25-2/26; 137.69 143.64; FAST 2/11 2/16; 41.85-43.76 Trading Concepts, Inc. 18

DIA SPDR DJ Industrial Average ETF 8/6/15 Account Balance $67,245 (+34.5%) 2/5/15 Open 177.28 Algorithmic trades without any discretion 8/6/15 Close 174.22 (-1.76%) 2/5/15 Starting Capital $50,000 SPY SPDR S&P 500 ETF IWM ishares Russell 2000 ETF 8/6/15 Close 208.35 (+1.70%) 8/6/15 Close 120.69 (+1.62%) 2/5/15 Open 204.86 2/5/15 Open 118.77 Trading Concepts, Inc. 19

Why YOU need to consider using an Algorithmic Swing Trading System in your overall trading plan Any work to be done is after the close; less than 30 minutes a day, Scan entire market catch moves in various sectors & asset classes, Once your system is coded up all you have to do is press a button to find the trades, There is NO discretion involved whatsoever, and If you re a more active trader that s fine, continue to doing that this works in the background and there is nothing to do during the trading day. Trading Concepts, Inc. 20

9 Additional Reasons Why YOU need to use Algorithmic Swing Trading Systems in your overall trading plan: 1) Free yourself from the stress of trading 2) We know the expected returns 3) We can be lazy 4) We know our worst enemy can be ourselves 5) Lack of discipline, skills and or time 6) To provide or catch more opportunities 7) To have exact money management / position management rules 8) To have exact entry & exit rules 9) No subjectivity keep it 100% objective! Trading Concepts, Inc. 21

Look, many of the most successful hedge funds & money managers utilize some type of algorithmic trading systems in their overall strategy portfolios... So, why shouldn t YOU too? Trading Concepts, Inc. 22

You may think that only the smartest people from the best Universities get these jobs the general public is also lead to believe that only Wall Street Insiders know these secrets Trading Concepts, Inc. 23

I m here to tell you this is not the case! I m going to teach you the foundational principles that go into building successful algorithmic trading systems that are able to generate fantastic annual compound returns, spending less than 30 minutes a day, that creates wealth over time. Trading Concepts, Inc. 24

One thing I want you to take away from this: There are no superior gods on Wall Street you have to believe you re as smart, if not smarter than 95% of the professionals who work on Wall Street. Bottom Line: YOU have to TRUST & BELIEVE in YOURSELF! I m going to prove to you here that you can do as well, if not beat most hedge funds by doing it yourself. Trading Concepts, Inc. 25

ALRIGHT what I now want to do is show you the basic foundation & key principles it takes to create short-term algorithmic swing trading systems used to achieve long term trading success Trading Concepts, Inc. 26

Facts of Short-Term Market Behavior The markets (stocks) have a long-term upward bias. People tend to overreact to negative news and drive stock or ETF prices down too far: Buying pullbacks has a quantifiable edge. Buying on further intraday weakness increases the edge. After stock prices have been driven down, institutional money comes in to buy value. This provides support and the stock price moves up over a period of a few days. Trading Concepts, Inc. 27

Trading Concepts, Inc. 28

4 Keys to Understanding The Principles of Successful Swing Trading - Building A Trading Strategy with an EDGE: 1) Buy Stocks Above their 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) 2) Buy Stocks After they have Pulled Back (Lowest CLOSE in 10 Days) 3) Buy Stocks On Further Intraday Weakness 4) Exit Above the 5-period SMA or a 2-period RSI (a Dynamic exit/stop) Trading Concepts, Inc. 29

1) Buy Stocks Above their 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) Entry and Exit Rules / Criteria: 51.71% Winners Entry: CLOSE > 200 SMA Exit: 5 Day Hold 50.03% Winners Entry: CLOSE <= 200 SMA Exit: 5 Day Hold Avg % P/L 0.14% Average % Profit, 5 Day Hold (18 1/1/95 Years to of 6/30/12 Data) Avg % P/L 0.21% Total Trades: 4,801,104 % Winners: 50.03% Total Trades: 7,482,377 % Winners: 51.71% SOURCE: Connors, Larry. 1 st High-Probability Swing Trading Strategies Summit. Connors Research LLC. Trading Concepts, Inc. 30

2) Buy Stocks After they have Pulled Back (Lowest CLOSE in 10 Days) Entry and Exit Rules / Criteria: 54.39% Winners Entry: CLOSE of Lowest CLOSE in 10 Days w/ CLOSE > 200 SMA Exit: 5 Day Hold 51.71% Winners Entry: CLOSE > 200 SMA Exit: 5 Day Hold Avg % P/L 0.21% Total Trades: 7,482,377 % Winners: 51.71% Average % Profit, 5 Day Hold (18 Years of Data) Avg % P/L 0.56% Total Trades: 945,017 % Winners: 54.39% SOURCE: Connors, Larry. 1 st High-Probability Swing Trading Strategies Summit. Connors Research LLC. Trading Concepts, Inc. 31

2) Buy Stocks After they have Pulled Back (Lowest CLOSE in 10 Days) Entry and Exit Rules / Criteria: 54.39% Winners Entry: CLOSE of Lowest CLOSE in 10 Days w/ CLOSE > 200 SMA Exit: 5 Day Hold BUY 53.92 EXIT 53.28 EXIT 20.47 BUY 19.76 Trading Concepts, Inc. 32

3) Buy Stocks On Further Intraday Pull Back Entry and Exit Rules / Criteria: Average % Profit, 5 Day Hold (18 Years of Data) 57.38% Winners Entry: 3% Limit Intraday Pull Back below CLOSE of Lowest CLOSE in 10 Days w/ CLOSE > 200 SMA Exit: 5 Day Hold Avg % P/L 0.56% Avg % P/L 1.13% 54.39% Winners Entry: CLOSE of Lowest CLOSE in 10 Days w/ CLOSE > 200 SMA Exit: 5 Day Hold Total Trades: 945,017 % Winners: 54.39% Total Trades: 183,667 % Winners: 57.38% SOURCE: Connors, Larry. 1 st High-Probability Swing Trading Strategies Summit. Connors Research LLC. Trading Concepts, Inc. 33

3) Buy Stocks On Further Intraday Pull Back Entry and Exit Rules / Criteria: 57.38% Winners Entry: 3% Limit Intraday Pull Back below CLOSE of Lowest CLOSE in 10 Days w/ CLOSE > 200 SMA Exit: 5 Day Hold EXIT 54.44 EXIT 21.14 BUY 19.17 BUY 52.30 Trading Concepts, Inc. 34

3) Buy Stocks On Further Intraday Weakness Entry and Exit Rules / Criteria: 62.14% Winners Entry: 7% Limit Intraday Pull Back below CLOSE of Lowest CLOSE in 10 Days w/ CLOSE > 200 SMA Exit: 5 Day Hold Average % Profit, 5 Day Hold (18 Years of Data) Avg % P/L 2.92% 57.38% Winners Entry: 3% Limit Intraday Pull Back below CLOSE of Lowest CLOSE in 10 Days w/ CLOSE > 200 SMA Exit: 5 Day Hold 54.39% Winners Entry: CLOSE of Lowest CLOSE in 10 Days w/ CLOSE > 200 SMA Exit: 5 Day Hold Avg % P/L 0.56% Total Trades: 945,017 % Winners: 54.39% Avg % P/L 1.13% Total Trades: 183,667 % Winners: 57.38% Total Trades: 42,374 % Winners: 62.14% SOURCE: Connors, Larry. 1 st High-Probability Swing Trading Strategies Summit. Connors Research LLC. Trading Concepts, Inc. 35

3) Buy Stocks On Further Intraday Weakness Entry and Exit Rules / Criteria: 62.14% Winners Entry: 7% Limit Intraday Pull Back below CLOSE of Lowest CLOSE in 10 Days w/ CLOSE > 200 SMA Exit: 5 Day Hold EXIT 518.01 EXIT 203.90 BUY 190.35 BUY 459.86 Trading Concepts, Inc. 36

4) Sell Into Strength (Exit on Close Above 5-day SMA Dynamic ) Entry and Exit Rules / Criteria: Average % Profit, 5 Day Hold (18 Years of Data) 62.14% Winners Entry: 7% Limit Intraday Pull Back below CLOSE of Lowest CLOSE in 10 Days w/ CLOSE > 200 SMA Exit: 5 Day Hold Avg % P/L 2.92% Avg % P/L 3.68% 70.95% Winners Entry: 7% Limit Intraday Pull Back below CLOSE of Lowest CLOSE in 10 Days w/ CLOSE > 200 SMA Exit: CLOSE > 5 SMA Total Trades: 42,374 % Winners: 62.14% Total Trades: 42,374 % Winners: 70.95% SOURCE: Connors, Larry. 1 st High-Probability Swing Trading Strategies Summit. Connors Research LLC. Trading Concepts, Inc. 37

4) Sell Into Strength (Exit on Close Above 5-day SMA Dynamic ) Entry and Exit Rules / Criteria: 70.95% Winners Entry: 7% Limit Intraday Pull Back below CLOSE of Lowest CLOSE in 10 Days w/ CLOSE > 200 SMA Exit: CLOSE > 5 SMA EXIT 500.77 EXIT 203.90 BUY 190.35 BUY 459.86 Trading Concepts, Inc. 38

Building A Trading Strategy with an EDGE Avg % P/L 3.68% Avg % P/L 2.92% % Winners 70.95% % Winners 62.14% Avg % P/L 1.13% Avg % P/L 0.14% % Winners 50.03% Avg % P/L 0.21% % Winners 51.71% Avg % P/L 0.56% % Winners 54.39% % Winners 57.38% SOURCE: Connors, Larry. 1 st High-Probability Swing Trading Strategies Summit. Connors Research LLC. Quantified Effect of Added Trading Rules Trading Concepts, Inc. 39

Dynamic Exits When a certain indicator hits a predetermined level (i.e. when the RSI(2) closes above 70) as opposed to a set percentage, a pre-determined static price level, or a set number of days. I use Dynamic Exits for my algorithmic mean reversion swing trading strategies only I don t use them when day trading. Trading Concepts, Inc. 40

Obviously different exits will give widely different test results so it s important to back-test your exits to see which ones are most beneficial. 41

4 Keys to Understanding The Principles of Successful Swing Trading - Building A Trading Strategy with an EDGE: 1) Buy Stocks Above their 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) 2) Buy Stocks After they have Pulled Back (Lowest CLOSE in 10 Days) 3) Buy Stocks On Further Intraday Weakness 4) Exit Above the 5-period SMA or a 2-period RSI (a Dynamic exit/stop) Trading Concepts, Inc. 42

Algorithmic trades Completely Mechanical Taking less than 30 Minutes a Day! Algorithmic Swing Trades (+34.5%) IWM ishares Russell 2000 ETF (+1.62%) 43

LIVE TRADING JOURNAL (Algorithmic Swing Trades from 2/5/2015 to 8/6/15) Trading Concepts, Inc. 44

In a little more than 6 months from February 2,2015 to August 6, 2015 Starting Capital $50,000 to an Account Balance of $67,245 (+$17,244.87 PROFIT) (including commissions no slippage because we enter on LIMIT orders) Trading Concepts, Inc. 45

So, what I ve decided to do is take this webinar one step further, a huge step further I am going to teach you the exact, 100% rule-based algorithmic trading systems that have produced 38% to 54%+ annual returns so you too can start achieving the same type of results that I ve been showing you throughout this webinar. Trading Concepts, Inc. 46

On Saturday, April 16 th at 12:00pm ET, I m going to roll up my sleeves and show you everything I ve got, so you can immediately start applying these systems. These are the exact trading systems I personally use, so I have to limit the amount of people that attend. Trading Concepts, Inc. 47

Take a look at these five equity graphs to see the results of the 5 Algorithmic Trading Systems you ll learn in Saturday s class. CAR = 38% CAR = 43% CAR = 54% CAR = 40% CAR = 46% Trading Concepts, Inc. 48

There s no denying the fact the systems I m going to teach you make money and you re not only going to learn the exact rules and parameters to each trading system, but the foundational principles behind them. Here are the results from 2007 to present: System 1: $25,000 to $417,730 System 2: $25,000 to $1,131,241 System 3: $25,000 to $715,022 System 4: $25,000 to $634,878 System 5: $25,000 to $557,045 These proven, time-tested (back-tested and traded in real-time by me) algorithmic trading systems are designed for individual traders like yourself looking to earn a consistent income. Trading Concepts, Inc. 49

The five trading systems, used together or separately, will maximize your performance yet reduce your overall portfolio volatility, and will allow you to profit during a rising and falling stock market. Trading Concepts, Inc. 50

- In Saturday's LIVE Training, You WILL Learn... 5 swing trading strategies with average annual returns from 2007 to present of 38%, 40%, 43%, 46% & 54% trading stocks. Exact rules, parameters and foundational principles for each trading system. Exact entry, exit, money management and position sizing rules to each trading system. 100% objective, NO guesswork. 5 algorithmic mean-reversion & momentum based trading systems that take advantage of short-term market behavior keying off of 4 key principles. 5 Algorithmic trading systems that were built to be simple and consistent. How to set the systems up where it takes less than 30 minutes each night after the market closes to place your trades. Perfect for those who don t have much time to trade. How you can automate the trading process 100%. Introductory Offer ONLY $97 Trading Concepts, Inc. 51

I would love to see you this Saturday and share with you my 5 Algorithmic Trading Systems that will take you less than 30 minutes a day to achieve similar results, if not better, than the ones I ve shown you today. JOIN ME this Saturday, April 16 th at 12:00pm ET (the class will be recorded if you can t attend it live) http://tcprograms.com/introductoryoffer-algorithmic-trading-systems/ Trading Concepts, Inc. 52

All rights reserved. This Training Program, or parts thereof, may not be reproduced in any form without the prior written permission of Trading Concepts, Inc. Trading Concepts, Inc. 53