Data Digest: Florida June 2011
Florida s economic performance continues to lag the nation. Broad indicators of economic activity in Florida show stabilization but little improvement. Comparable U.S. data indicate slow but steady gains. About the Coincident Economic Indicator 120 Coincident Economic Indicator March 2011 115 110 105 100 95 90 USA Florida 85 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia 2
Total employment in Florida has stabilized near recession lows, but job gains remain elusive. The current level of employment is at mid-2002 levels. Thousands, Seasonally adjusted 8,500 Florida Payroll Employment March 2011 8,000 7,500 Florida lost relatively few jobs during the previous two recessions. 7,000 6,500 Florida shed 11.4% of total employment from peak to trough. 6,000 5,500 Post-recession employment gains in Florida did not materialize for some time after the previous two downturns. 5,000 4,500 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics 3
All industries (except education and health care) saw significant job losses during the downturn, and several continue to post declines. Where job growth has occurred in leisure and hospitality, for example gains have been modest to date. Fed & state government Leisure & hospitality Education & health care Transport/Warehousing/Utilities Over half of Florida s construction jobs have been lost. Local government Other services Business services Financial services Information Retail trade Wholesale trade Manufacturing Construction Total Employment Loss and Gain by Industry: Florida March 2011-51.6 Percent change trough to present Percent change peak to trough -28.2-20.6-15.4-16.1-60 -50-40 -30-20 -10 0 10 20 Note: A reading of in the "trough to present" measure indicates that employment continues to decline in these industries. Likewise, a reading of in the "peak to trough" measure indicates the employment continues to increase in these industries. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta -13.5-14.8-11.4-12.1-10.7-11.4-7.5-4.2 0.8 1.2 0.8 1.0 0.3 0.2 2.0 1.6 0.8 2.6 2.7 4.5 8.3 The state as a whole shed 11.4% of total employment peak to trough, and is only up 0.8% since the trough (December 2009). 4
Leisure and hospitality as well as education and health care show positive employment momentum, while construction, information, financial services and manufacturing employment remain very weak. Retail shows some improvement. About Employment Momentum 5.0 Improving Employment Momentum by Industry: Florida March 2011 Expanding Leisure & hospitality 4.0 3-month average annualized percent change 3.0 2.0 1.0-1.0-2.0-3.0 Business services Retail trade Financial services Information Other services Manufacturing Health care & pvt education Transport/Warehouse/Utilities Local government Wholesale trade Federal & state government -4.0 Construction Contracting Slipping -5.0-8.0-6.0-4.0-2.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 Year-over-year percent change Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 5
Job losses in southwestern Florida metro areas have been staggering. Major declines are not limited to coastal areas. Ocala is down over 17 percent. Vero Beach, Orlando, Punta Gorda, and Daytona are the only areas with more than a 2 percent increase since their troughs. Employment Loss and Gain by Metro Area: Florida March 2011 W. Palm Beach Tampa-St. Pete Tallahassee Vero Beach Sarasota Punta Gorda St. Lucie-Ft. Pierce Pensacola Panama City Orlando Ocala Naples Miami-Ft.L'dale Melbourne Lakeland Jacksonville Gainesville Ft. Myers Daytona Florida Tallahassee is the only Florida metro area that, at 6.1%, had a lower percent change decline peak-to-trough than the U.S. average of 6.3%. -15.3-19.2-18.1-17.3-16.3 Percent change trough to present Percent change peak to trough -12.2-11.2-12.5-12.1-10.6-9.6-10.2-12.4-9.4-9.1-12.8-11.4-7.8-6.1-6.6 1.4 0.3 0.2 3.3 0.8 2.3 0.3 1.6 2.5 1.0 1.6 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.8 2.4 0.8-25 -20-15 -10-5 0 5 Note: A reading of in the "trough to present" measure indicates that employment continues to decline in these industries. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 6
Orlando and Miami-Ft. Lauderdale show positive employment momentum. Jacksonville employment momentum is improving, while several comparably smaller metro areas, like Melbourne and Panama City, remain very weak. About Employment Momentum 3.0 Improving Employment Momentum by Metro Area: Florida March 2011 Expanding 3-month average annualized percent change 2.5 Orlando 2.0 Miami-Ft. Lauderdale West Palm Beach 1.5 Naples Pensacola 1.0 Lakeland Tampa-St. Pete Sarasota Vero Beach 0.5 Jacksonville Daytona Punta Gorda Tallahassee -0.5 St. Lucie-Ft. Pierce Ocala Ft. Myers Gainesville -1.0 Panama City -1.5 Melbourne -2.0 Contracting Slipping -2.5-3.0-2.0-1.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 Year-over-year percent change Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 7
January 2011 marked the first month since May 2007 that Florida s employment momentum was in the expanding quadrant, albeit barely. Florida spent 33 months in the contracting quadrant. About Employment Momentum Track 4.0 Improving Employment Momentum Track: Florida January 2007 March 2011 Expanding 3-month average percent change, annualized 2.0-2.0-4.0-6.0-8.0 Contracting Slipping -1-8.0-7.0-6.0-5.0-4.0-3.0-2.0-1.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 Year-over-year percent change Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 8
Florida s unemployment rate (11.9 percent in January 2011) continued to climb long after the overall U.S. rate stabilized and began to fall. Percent of labor force 13.0 Unemployment Rate March 2011 12.0 11.0 1 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 Florida USA 4.0 3.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 The table shows unemployment rates for metro areas. Current = March 2011. Year-ago and January 2007 are included for comparison. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics 9
Alternative measures of labor underutilization for Florida namely, the U6 figure show that nearly 20 percent of the state s labor force is unemployed or underemployed, a number that is higher than comparable U.S. measures. About Unemployment Rates Percent, seasonally adjusted 25 Measures of Labor Utilization: Unemployment Rate and U6 March 2011 20 United States: U6 United States: Unemployment rate Florida: U6 Florida: Unemployment rate 15 10 5 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Note: U6=Unemployed + Marginally attached + Part-time economic reasons/civilian labor force + Marginally attached Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics 10
Initial claims for unemployment have declined substantially in 2011, which may indicate that unemployment has peaked. 4-week moving average 30,000 Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims: Florida April 16,2011 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 Initial claims averaged just over 10,000 during 2004 6. Even though the current number of initial claims has declined, they are still elevated. 5,000 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: U.S. Department of Labor Employment and Training Administration, Haver Analytics 11
Measures of consumer activity have recovered from recession lows. Sales tax revenues are posting year-over-year increases, but consumer confidence fell again in April as perceptions of personal finances a year from now declined sharply. 1966 = 100 100 95 90 85 Florida Sales Tax Revenue and Consumer Confidence Florida Consumer Confidence (left scale) Florida Sales Tax Revenue (right scale), Y/Y % Change (3-month average) 2 15.0 1 80 5.0 75 70 65 60 Sales tax revenues have been helped by healthy activity in the leisure and hospitality sector. International visitors have played an important role in boosting tourism spending. -5.0-1 55 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011-15.0 Source: Florida Department of Revenue, University of Florida Bureau of Economic and Business Research Center, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 12
Regional manufacturing activity accelerated in April, according to the Southeast Purchasing Managers Index produced by Kennesaw State University, based on increases for new orders, production, and employment. 7 Southeast Purchasing Managers Index April 2011 65.0 6 55.0 5 45.0 4 The Florida component of the SE PMI was 48.6 in April 2011. 35.0 3 The increase in factory activity has not led to job increases in Florida s manufacturing sector to date. 25.0 2 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Note: 50+ = Expansion Source: Kennesaw State University, Coles College of Business Econometric Center 13
Existing home sales have declined after showing improvement in late 2009 and early 2010. Foreclosure and other distressed sales were driving activity in Florida. The level of sales in Florida is well above the 2007 8 lows. Year-over-year percent change 8 Existing Home Sales December 2010 6 4 USA Florida 2-2 -4 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: National Association of Realtors, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 14
As a result of low sales and high inventories, new home construction fell to historic lows in Florida and the United States as a whole. 200,000 180,000 160,000 New Residential Home Construction Permits March 2011 30,000 25,000 140,000 120,000 20,000 100,000 15,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 USA (left scale) Florida (right scale) 10,000 5,000 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 0 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Haver Analytics 15
Home prices in Florida have declined substantially over the past five years. After stabilizing somewhat in 2009 and early 2010, prices declined a bit further. Jan 2000 = 100 300 275 250 225 200 175 150 125 100 75 Source: S&P, Haver Analytics Home Prices February 2011 Miami Tampa US Composite 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 FHFA House Price Index 1-yr % change 5-yr % change 10-yr % change USA -1.3-6.3 41.0 Florida -5.7-31.8 41.9 Ft. Myers 1.4-47.3 22.5 Daytona -5.6-36.2 36.0 Ft. Lauderdale -0.8-38.0 46.3 Gainesville -4.0-9.2 63.0 Jacksonville -7.3-19.4 42.0 Lakeland -9.3-28.9 28.6 Miami -4.0-30.8 58.7 Naples 1.9-44.2 32.7 Ocala -8.0-26.4 36.4 Orlando -8.1-33.3 31.0 Melbourne -4.5-42.6 32.4 Panama City -4.9-24.3 54.1 Pensacola -7.0-21.5 37.3 St. Lucie-Fort Pierce -1.9-47.4 27.2 Punta Gorda -4.7-43.9 23.7 Tallahassee -6.8-11.2 48.6 Tampa-St. Petersburg -6.5-30.7 36.0 Vero Beach -6.5-42.2 26.0 West Palm Beach -3.2-38.0 43.0 Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 16
Florida Realtors reported that sales were up modestly from year-ago levels, while builders noted sales were down a bit over the same period. About the Real Estate Contact Poll 1.0 Atlanta Fed Real Estate Contact Poll: Florida Current home sales versus year-ago levels February 2011 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2-0.2-0.4-0.6-0.8 Realtors Homebuilders -1.0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 17
Office vacancy rates rose throughout the recession but have stabilized in most areas. As a result, commercial construction activity remains at low levels. Percent 24.0 22.0 2 18.0 16.0 USA Ft. Lauderdale Jacksonville Miami Orlando Tampa Office Vacancy Rate December 2010 14.0 12.0 1 8.0 6.0 4.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: CB Richard Ellis, Haver Analytics 18
Despite the national pickup in manufacturing activity, industrial availability rates remain elevated in Florida. Jacksonville s rate deteriorated throughout 2010. Percent 24.0 Industrial Availability Rate December 2010 22.0 2 18.0 16.0 14.0 12.0 1 8.0 6.0 USA Ft. Lauderdale Jacksonville Miami 4.0 Orlando 2.0 Tampa 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Note: There was a break in the series for Fort Lauderdale and Miami from Q2 2006 through Q3 2007. Source: CB Richard Ellis, Haver Analytics 19
Activity through Florida s ports is rebounding from the downturn during the recession. Exports through southeast Florida in particular have accelerated. $thousands 18,000,000 Port Activity December 2010 16,000,000 14,000,000 Miami District, Imports Tampa District, Imports Miami District, Exports Tampa District, Exports 12,000,000 10,000,000 8,000,000 6,000,000 4,000,000 2,000,000 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Note: The Miami District includes ports from Key West up the eastern coast to Port St. Lucie. All other Florida ports are in the Tampa District. Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Haver Analytics 20
For additional sources of information, see our Local Economic Analysis Research Network membership at www.frbatlanta.org/rein/learn/map/learn_members.cfm 21