Economic Indicators December 2017
General Economy
GDP % Change U.S. GDP Growth First two consecutive quarters over 3% in 3 years 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% Last 3 quarters: 3Q17: 3.2% 2Q17: 3.0% 1Q17: 1.2% -8.0% -10.0% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis (Real GDP). Prior quarters subject to revision.
GDP Global Comparison U.S. and world growth rates are expected to improve somewhat in 2017 and continue the trend in 2018. % GDP Growth 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E Mexico 1.4-4.7 5.1 4.0 4.0 1.4 2.3 2.7 2.3 2.1 1.9 Italy -1.0-5.5 1.7 0.6-2.8-1.7 0.1 0.8 0.9 1.5 1.1 Canada 1.0-3.0 3.1 3.1 1.7 2.5 2.6 0.9 1.5 3.0 2.1 China 9.6 9.2 10.6 9.5 7.9 7.8 7.3 6.9 6.7 6.8 6.5 Brazil 5.1-0.1 7.5 4.0 1.9 3.0 0.5-3.8-3.6 0.7 1.5 Spain 1.1-3.6 0.0-1.0-2.9-1.7 1.4 3.2 3.2 3.1 2.5 United States -0.3-2.8 2.5 1.6 2.2 1.7 2.6 2.9 1.5 2.2 2.3 European Union 0.6-4.3 2.1 1.8-0.4 0.3 1.8 2.3 2.0 2.3 2.1 World 3.0-0.1 5.4 4.3 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.6 3.7 Source: IMF World Economic Outlook update as of October 2017 (updated semi-annually)
Unemployment Rate The national rate continues to decline to historic lows. Even states with historically higher rates such as the west and the rust belt are showing improvement. Selected State Data (Nov 2017) U.S. national unemployment rate Better than average: Virginia: 3.7% Florida: 3.6% Texas: 3.8% Worse than average: Pennsylvania: 4.6% Ohio: 4.8% Michigan: 4.6% New York: 4.7% New Jersey: 5.1% Nevada: 5.0% California: 4.6% Illinois: 4.9% Other key states: Georgia: 4.3% North Carolina: 4.3% South Carolina: 4.0% Last 3 months: Sep 2017: 4.2% Oct 2017: 4.1% Nov 2017: 4.1% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Personal Savings Rate (%) Personal Savings Rate. Rates continue to decline and are currently at their lowest point since the financial crisis. Some concern from economists that rates are too low. 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Monthly Personal Income and Outlays, Table 1: personal savings as a % of disposable personal income. Prior months subject to revision.
Consumer Sentiment Index December was slightly weaker than expected, but Q4 average was still high. 105.0 100.0 95.0 90.0 85.0 80.0 75.0 70.0 65.0 60.0 Last 3 months: Oct 17: 100.7 Nov 17: 98.5 Dec 17: 95.9 Source: University of Michigan Survey of Consumer Sentiment as reported in www.tradingeconomics.com. Previous months subject to revision
Residential Housing Economy / Residential Remodel
(000's Units) Annual Housing Starts Growth rates remain positive but are slowing. Multi-family is expected to decline 2,200 2,000 1,800 1705 1854 1956 2068 1801 2016 %chg 2017 %chg 2018 Single family: 784 8% 844 8% 911 Multi family: 393-12% 347-1% 343 TOTAL 1177 1% 1191 5% 1254 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 1355 905 554 587 612 784 928 1001 1107 1177 1191 1254 400 200 Source: NAHB Housing/Economic Forecast (projection as of November 2017) NAHB Projection
Thousands of Starts Housing Starts Seasonal Trend Starts in the first three quarters of 2017 grew around 3%, growth has slowed since 2016 120.0 110.0 100.0 90.0 80.0 70.0 60.0 50.0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 40.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Starts (000 s): 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q Total 2013 208.1 244.2 242.8 229.8 925.0 2014 206.0 274.7 281.4 241.2 1002.9 2015 214.6 320.4 318.0 258.9 1111.9 2016 249.1 322.8 313.0 288.8 1173.7 2017 267.2 327.5 319.3 Source: U.S. Census Bureau for historical figures; may differ slightly from other published annual figures
Thousands of Units Existing Home Sales Fourth quarter sales are showing an increase over prior years 600.0 550.0 500.0 450.0 400.0 350.0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 300.0 250.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Sales (000 s): 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q Total 2014 918 1401 1409 1207 4935 2015 981 1516 1526 1231 5254 2016 1037 1577 1538 1300 5452 2017 1088 1602 1510 Source: National Association of REALTORS (www.realtor.org)
Number of Months Month-End Supply Existing Home Supply Supply has tightened in recent months, dipping back below the 4 month level 14 4,100 12 10 8 Last 3 months: Sep 17: 4.2 Oct 17: 3.9 Nov 17: 3.4 3,600 3,100 6 2,600 4 2 2,100 0 1,600 Months Supply of Inventory Month-End Inventory (000's) Source: National Association of REALTORS (prior months subject to revision)
Foreclosures Overall U.S. foreclosures are still at historically low levels. Illinois and New Jersey continue to lead among high population states Source: RealtyTrac.com, November 2017
LIRA Remodeling Index Remodeling projected to continue to grow in 2018 Factors in Harvard s LIRA Index: Pending home sales Building material shipments Contractor sentiment and hours worked Cash out refinancing data General economic indicators 16.6%
Commercial Construction Economy
ABI Rating Architecture Billings Index ABI is a leading indicator of future construction activity (50 = no change from prior month) Index dipped in September but has come back in the last two months 70 60 50 40 Nov 2017: Billings 55.0 Inquiries 61.0 30 ABI Billings Inquiry Index Source: American Institute of Architects (www.aia.org). Prior months subject to revision
ABI Rating ABI Rating ABI Rating ABI Rating Architecture Billings Index - Regions ABI is a leading indicator of future construction activity (50 = no change from prior month) The West picked up in November. Activity is positive in all regions. Northeast Midwest 70 70 60 60 50 50 40 30 Nov: 52.8 40 30 Nov: 50.4 70 South 70 West 60 60 50 50 40 30 Nov: 52.8 40 30 Nov: 54.8 Source: American Institute of Architects (www.aia.org)
Commercial Lending Market Mortgage Bankers Association commercial loan origination index 2017 is trending higher than prior year with strong second and third quarter performance 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Source: Mortgage Bankers Assoc. (mba.org) Quarterly index: 2001 = 100.
Ceramic Tile Industry
($billions) U.S. Ceramic Tile Market Market size approximately $3.5 billion; larger than pre-recession levels. +4% 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 $3.2-13% $2.8-11% $2.5-24% $1.9 +9% $2.1 +6% $2.2 +7% $2.4 +12% $2.6 +9% $2.9 +7% $3.1 +6% $3.3 $3.5 1.5 1.0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E Source: Floor Covering Weekly; internal estimates. Prior year data subject to periodic restatement.
U.S. Market by Segment Total = Total = Total = Total = Total = Total = Total = Total = +9% +6% +7% +12% +9% +7% +6% +4% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 15% 15% 14% 11% 10% 8% 9% 7% 8% 9% 10% 10% 8% 9% 7% 7% 7% 5% 6% 6% 5% 6% 5% 5% 5% 4% 3% 0% Note: Industry data from prior years is subject to periodic restatement. New Res Res Remodel Commercial