POPULATION GROWTH Steady and moderate growth of 1.7% a year to 2018, slowing to 0.6% a year out to 2048 ALTERNATIVES IMPACT LIKELIHOOD OVERALL RISK REASONS AND FINANCIAL EFFECT That the population growth rate is significantly greater than forecast Significantly higher population growth may impact negatively on levels of service as infrastructure has insufficient capacity to meet demand. Infrastructure may need to be extended or new infrastructure installed earlier than planned to accommodate additional growth. Population forecasts to 2018 are based on the assumption that the current population growth rate will continue. Population growth rate forecasts from 2018 to 2043 are based on the StatsNZ high projections (2013 (base) 2043 update). Growth rates between 2043 and 2048 have been extrapolated. The rates of population growth have been compared to historical growth rates, which typically exceed StatsNZ medium growth rates. The latest population forecasts from Infometrics support our recommendation of growth rates that are higher than the StatsNZ medium population projections. Guarded Significantly higher population growth will put pressure on existing infrastructure and services. Council will need to find ways of raising the extra revenue required, or consider lower levels of service. Population growth will provide economic benefits to the District and will help with justifying and funding new growth projects. Higher than expected population growth will mean that Council receives more development contributions. This will help to partially offset higher expenditure. Council reviews the trends and strategic direction every three years as part of each Long Term Plan process. Council monitors the estimates annually and census results every five years provided by Statistics NZ. Major projects and significant changes to levels of service are assessed against affordability annually. The attractiveness of the District as a place to live and work has an impact on inward migrant levels, as does the attractiveness of Palmerston North City. Council invests in economic development, recreation and community support activities in order to support business development and provide an attractive lifestyle choice. Skill shortages and resource constraints in the domestic economy support continued high levels of net migration, should government remain stable. That the population growth rate is significantly less than forecast A significantly lower population growth rate may mean that Council revenue from rates and development contributions is less than forecast. This may make it harder for Council to deliver agreed levels of service or increase costs for current ratepayers. Population forecasts to 2018 are based on the assumption that the current population growth rate will continue. Population growth rate forecasts from 2018 to 2043 are based on the StatsNZ high projections (2013(base) 2043 update). Growth rates between 2043 and 2048 have been extrapolated. Population flows from migration can be volatile and often actual changes are far more significant than forecasts. Government immigration policy and potential for a change in government to one with more conservative views around immigration could curb current levels of net migration. er rates of population growth could increase the costs per property of delivering agreed levels of service. Growth projects may be delayed due to insufficient demand or surplus capacity in existing infrastructure networks. Council reviews the trends and strategic direction every three years as part of each Long Term Plan process. Council monitors the estimates annually and census results every five years provided by Statistics NZ. Major projects and significant changes to levels of service are assessed against affordability annually. The attractiveness of the District as a place to live and work has an impact on inward migrant levels, as does the attractiveness of Palmerston North City. Council invests in economic development, recreation and community support activities in order to support business development and provide an attractive lifestyle choice. 1
HOUSEHOLD GROWTH That the total number of households will increase by 41% on current (2018) household numbers by 2048 That the households growth rate will be significantly more than forecast Demand for land and infrastructure will be greater than anticipated. This may mean that additional land needs to be rezoned and new infrastructure provided to meet this demand. The number of new households has been forecast based on the forecast population divided by the average household occupancy rates from StatNZ. If the population growth rate exceeds forecast rates or if the average household occupancy rate is less than forecast, the number of new households is likely to be higher than forecast. Guarded Household growth generally results in new subdivisions and therefore an increase in the rating base. This spreads the costs of providing Council services, providing no major infrastructure growth is required. Growth in the number of households will increase the number of connections to reticulated water, wastewater and stormwater networks. There will also be increased stormwater runoff to manage from hard surfaces in urban areas. Asset Management Plans indicate that capacity is available and sufficient land is currently zoned for expected household growth. A higher increase in households might require additional investment by council but this is would be partly funded by development contributions. Rapid growth will place increased pressure on the development sector but will also mean economic benefits for local business. That the households growth rate will be significantly less than forecast Demand for land and infrastructure will be less than anticipated. The number of new households has been forecast based on the forecast population divided by the average household occupancy rates from StatNZ. If the population growth rate is significantly less than forecast or if the average household occupancy rate is higher than forecast, the number of new households is likely to be lower than forecast. If the number of households in urban areas does not increase as forecast then there will be limited increases in the rating base. This will mean that the costs of providing the planned levels of service for network infrastructure will be higher per connection and there will be more rating pressure on existing households and businesses. Reduced development pressure will mean that the available land bank is not exhausted as quickly. Planned rezoning and new infrastructure can be delayed until such time as demand warrants the expenditure. 2
AGEING POPULATION That the proportion of residents aged over 65 years will increase significantly over the long term, leading to some changes in the way Council delivers services That the proportion of residents aged over 65 years will be significantly more than forecast A major shift towards older people is likely to change the mix of services demanded from Council, and the ability to pay for those services. Council will come under increasing pressure to limit rate increases. An older population overall is reasonably certain. The actual outcomes are highly dependent on the age mix of the migration trends and employment prospects both locally and elsewhere. Guarded Council may need to alter the mix of services delivered over time. This is unlikely to result in new activities, but rather the types of services and facilities. This would include recreation assets and services, roading design and footpaths. Affordability of rates will increase in importance as a greater proportion of ratepayers will be reliant on benefit grants linked to CPI cost increases. Affordability is a key factor considered in setting rates limits in the Financial Strategy. The specifications of Council services may change but overall this is unlikely to result in higher costs. Council reviews the trends and strategic direction every three years as part of each Long Term Plan process. Council monitors the estimates annually and census results every five years provided by Statistics NZ. Major projects and significant changes to levels of service are assessed against affordability annually. Changes in demands for Council services is not new and is part of the political process. The range of Council services utilised by older people is not significantly different from younger people. While the need for organised active team sports as traditionally catered for may decline there will still be a demand for open spaces, walkways, pools, halls etc. That the proportion of residents aged over 65 years will be significantly less than forecast A smaller than predicted demographic shift towards older people will mean that there is less pressure on Council to alter levels of service or the types of services and activities delivered. An older population overall is reasonably certain. The actual demographics of the population is highly dependent on the age mix of the migration trends and employment prospects both locally and elsewhere. A lower than forecast demographic shift towards older people will mean less demand to alter current services and facilities in the shortterm. Council reviews the trends and strategic direction every three years as part of each Long Term Plan process. Council monitors the estimates annually and census results every five years provided by Statistics NZ. Major projects and significant changes to levels of service are assessed against affordability annually. 3
LAND USE CHANGE That current land uses will not change significantly over the next 30 years (to 2048) OF UNCERTAINTY That current land uses will change significantly over the next 30 years Rapid changes in land use could result in unanticipated demand for new reticulated services and the need to undertake additional road maintenance or improvement works. New activities can generate additional employment that can increase the rate of population and household growth and increased economic development. If additional rural land needs to be rezoned to accommodate residential or industrial development this would impact on the District Plan Review Programme and may alter priorities for infrastructural investment. Council has already rezoned three of the four residential growth precincts identified in the Feilding Urban Growth Framework Plan (PC45) and 15.6 hectares of industrial land along Turners Road (PC52). Further research and analysis is being undertaken on an additional residential growth precinct located around Pharazyn Road/Reids Line. These plan changes should ensure that there is sufficient land available for greenfield residential and industrial development in Feilding beyond the life of this Long Term Plan. The Feilding Framework Plan did not identify a need for additional commercially zoned land in Feilding. Land use in the Village Zones and nodal areas will be considered as part of future plan changes through the Sectional District Plan Review. The rate of land uptake for residential and industrial development is dependent on several factors including population growth, household growth, migration and economic prosperity. Significant changes in any of these factors will affect when additional land needs to be rezoned. Transport connectivity improvements may be required to hubbing locations in the Manawatu District to support growth in distribution and logistics as identified in the Accelerate 25 Manawatu-Whanganui Economic Action Plan. Guarded Significant changes in land use will likely impact on the roading network, particularly in rural areas. Additional expenditure may be required to ensure that roads are fit for purpose. Significant changes in land use may also impact on Council s investment and priorities for infrastructural investment, particularly in relation to extensions to reticulated networks. The attraction of new industrial activities to the District may place increased demand on water, wastewater and stormwater networks, including the capacity of the Feilding Wastewater Treatment Plant to treat trade waste. Council monitors land use change through land use, subdivision and building consents. The zoning of land and the activities permitted on land is managed through the District Plan Review, informed by expert advice and investigations. New infrastructure and roading needed to support residential and industrial growth is controlled through Structure Plans that have been incorporated into the District Plan through the Plan Change process and will be funded by development contributions. The cost for new services to support new residential, industrial or commercial areas will be partially funded by development contributions. Rural land is largely self-serviced so changes in land use will not alter demand for reticulated networks, but may impact on roading. Council has already anticipated increased pressure on the rural roading network, with increasing numbers of heavy vehicles to service intensive farming and forestry harvest. As a result, additional funding has been set aside for road maintenance and renewals in the Roading Activity Management Plan. Council is already aware that farmland in the District is being used more intensively than it was in the past, with increased dairy farming and more intensive livestock production. Also, large areas of forestry in the District will reach harvestable age between 2020-2030. 4
INFRASTRUCTURAL CAPACITY That the infrastructure projects outlined in the Infrastructure Strategy are necessary to ensure that there is sufficient capacity to meet forecast population, household and business growth. That our infrastructure will have excessive capacity due to lower than forecast growth Maintenance costs to maintain the current level of service may not be sustainable. This means that levels of service may need to be reduced. Population forecasts are based on Census data, adjusted for local factors. Business growth is based on trends from past and current development. Decisions around infrastructure investment are based on past and current development trends and information that Council holds on the capacity of the current networks. Changes in population growth rates, growth demand and the location of growth within the District can all influence what infrastructure projects are needed and when. If the number of new households connecting to reticulated infrastructure networks is lower than forecast, the revenue from rates and development contributions will be lower. This means that the costs for maintenance and renewal will be higher per ratepayer. Any major changes to the growth trend will be identified through census analysis and building consent figures. As each project needs to be economically justifiable, projects are unlikely to proceed until there is sufficient demand. That our infrastructure will have insufficient capacity to meet growth demand Additional investment is required in new infrastructure if the level of service is to be met. Population forecasts are based on Census data, adjusted for local factors. Business growth is based on trends from past and current development. Decisions around infrastructure investment are based on past and current development trends and information that Council holds on the performance of the existing network. Changes in population growth rates, growth demand and the location of growth within the District can all influence what infrastructure projects are needed and when. Guarded Growth significantly above forecast rates will mean that major infrastructure networks will need to be expanded earlier than planned. If infrastructure is not able to keep up with demand levels of service may suffer, making the District a less attractive place to live. Funding for growth projects will be partially funded through development contributions. Growth will need to be significantly above forecast levels before additional investment in infrastructure is required. Any major changes to growth trends will be identified through census analysis and building consent figures. 5
LOCAL GOVERNMENT LEGISLATIVE FRAMEWORK That the Manawatu District Council is prepared to respond to legislative change without significant impacts on Council s finances or levels of service That legislative changes will have significant effects on Councils finances and ability to meet agreed levels of service Major If legislative changes included forced amalgamations then this could affect governance arrangements and our existing shared service agreements. Reformatting the District Plan to accord with new National Standards and new governance arrangements reached with mandated iwi could significantly increase the cost and timeframes for the District Plan review. Additional budget and resourcing may be required to give effect to Deeds of Settlement agreements reached with iwi in the Manawatu District iwi and their applications for customary rights to coastal areas under the Marine and Coastal Area (Takutai Moana) Act 2011. Insurance levies have doubled due to FENZ. Other legislative changes could also affect insurance levies. Possible Government policy can change significantly, especially with a change of government. Proposed amendments to the RMA will likely impact from 2017/18, with any required changes to the District Plan phased over time. The government has stated that forced amalgamations will not occur. However, the proposed changes to the LGA lower the threshold required to initiate a reorganisation investigation and increase the power of the Minister of Local Government to direct the Local Government Commission to undertake an investigation. Council is already resourced to manage changes to the Health and Safety at Work Act 2015, the Building (Earthquake-prone Buildings) Amendment Act and the One Network Road Classification system for roading infrastructure, so these legislative changes are not considered to impact significantly on Council s resources and governance. Council is already anticipating cost and governance implications associated with the Resource Management Act reforms, particularly in relation to management of the District Plan Review Programme, reformatting the District Plan to accord with new National Standards and new governance agreements reached with mandated iwi. However, until such time as the details of the reforms have been finalised we will not be able to accurately quantify the likely impacts. Should local iwi apply for recognition of customary rights under the Marine and Coastal Area (Takutai Moana) Act 2011, this will likely mean some cost to Council in assisting iwi in this process. In addition, there will be a cost associated with the implementation of Treaty Settlements within the District. However, we are not able to quantify these costs at this time. Council continues to enjoy close working relationships with neighbouring Councils at the governance and officer levels. MDC is a member of the Manawatu- Wanganui Local Authority Shared Service (MWLASS). This group of Councils works together to identify new ways of working together and to maximise efficiencies when procuring new goods and services. Specific requirements from new legislation can be partially addressed through changes to fees and charges, or through additional targeted rates. For example, contract fees are likely to increase to offset the costs associated with meeting the compliance requirements of the Health and Safety at Work Act 2015 Any changes to the structure of local government involving the Manawatu District would result in a new Long Term Plan and a different governance arrangement. Changes to the mode of delivery for services could result in different governance arrangements for those activities. Changes are proposed to the Local Government Act 2002 (LGA) that provide for greater use of Council-controlled Organisations, especially for water and transport services. Further collaborative agreements are likely over time, with any efficiency gains assumed to be considered at the time of establishment. No additional efficiency gains have been factored into the budgets. Any amalgamation process could result in policy resources being diverted or additional advice being sought. Any changes to the delivery of infrastructure services may remove these costs from the Council, but is unlikely to reduce the costs to ratepayers who receive the services. 6
CLIMATE CHANGE That the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events will increase as a result of climate change, in line with projections released following the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. Council is already prepared to respond to climate change effects over the life of the Plan (10 years) but impacts on Council activities will be more significant in the longer term. That climatic changes in the Manawatu District are more extreme than predicted by NIWA based on the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Major Any significant climatic changes would affect demand for Council services and could adversely affect infrastructure. Effects of climate change that are a concern for Council are primarily increased incidences of extreme weather. The risk is that storm damage from flooding becomes more frequent and that stormwater standards will not be met. This would increase costs from repair works, and also possibly lead to increasing levels of service. Ministry for the Environment reports have predicted change in weather patterns including wind and rainfall. There is more certainty that weather patterns in the short term due to climate change will have predictable impacts that can be provided for through our Asset Management Plans and Activity Management Plans. There is less certainty about impacts of weather patterns in the long term as predictions are less reliable. Significant impacts are not expected to be frequent in the next few decades. Council has a policy of holding depreciation renewal reserves. Insurance claims from damages associated with extreme weather are likely to rise as the incidence of these events increases in the future. This could increase the costs of insurance cover. Operating programmes to mitigate impacts of climate change such as reducing peak demand for Water and leak detection in Wastewater are already underway and are built into the operating budgets of Council. Financial impacts will be mitigated by ensuring adequate insurance cover is used and appropriate maintenance is undertaken as a preventative measure. Major flood protection works (stopbanks) have been completed in the lower Manawatu and in the Kiwitea Stream and upgrades to the Oroua River stopbanks are due to be completed in 2017/18. These stopbanks are designed to withstand the current 1% Annual Exceedance Probability (AEP) flood event, 1 in 100 year flood. Technology is always changing and it is likely that new and cost effective plant and materials will be available to meet some of the challenges in the future. That climatic changes in the Manawatu District are less extreme than predicted by NIWA based on the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report If climatic changes are less extreme than predicted, expenditure on infrastructure repairs and maintenance will be lower. Ministry for the Environment reports have predicted change in weather patterns including wind and rainfall. There is more certainty that weather patterns in the short term due to climate change will have predictable impacts that can be provided for through our Asset Management Plans and Activity Management Plans. There is less certainty about impacts of weather patterns in the long term as predictions are less reliable. Fewer significant storm events means that expenditure on infrastructure repairs and maintenance and insurance claims from storm events will be lower. Renewal reserves will need to be retained to address climate change impacts in the longer term. Financial impacts will be mitigated by ensuring adequate insurance cover is used and appropriate maintenance is undertaken as a preventative measure. 7
NATURAL DISASTERS The Manawatu District Council is prepared to respond to any natural hazards, including floods, storms, earthquakes and volcanic activity that occur during the life of this Long Term Plan. That a natural disaster event occurs that exceeds our ability to respond Major Manawatu District and other district businesses could be subject to a break in business continuity in the event of a major natural event. Council services including water (treatment, drinking), the road network and wastewater networks and treatment could be disrupted for considerable periods of time. Depending on the severity or timing of disasters, Council may not have either enough staff to manage recovery and response. There is a risk that Council may not have access to Government support in the future. A series of natural disasters may exhaust Council reserves and prudent borrowing ability. Other natural hazard events elsewhere in New Zealand or the world mean that there may periods of time where insurance cover is not available, or not available for certain types of event. The repair or renewal of lower priority infrastructure may be delayed due to a lack of borrowing ability and the need to focus resources on high priority projects. A high level of uncertainty exists around natural disasters. To mitigate this risk Council holds emergency reserves and ensure that it is adequately insured. A major natural event would impact on council by demanding immediate funding. This would reduce the resilience of the Council for meeting future unforeseen costs. Additional borrowing would impact on future rating levels. The Council has prepared a detailed business continuity plan, which outlines both crisis response and recovery. Civil Defence emergency planning is in alignment with business continuity preparedness. The Council also continues to be part of the Manawatu-Wanganui Civil Defence and Emergency Management Group working to ensure preparedness for any natural disaster, co-ordinate a response and support recovery. Emergency reserves of approximately $920,000 are currently held in contingency for such issues and Council ensures it is adequately insured. Loan facilities are also available should the need arise and the Council has significant capacity within its limits for the level of debt $5million. Major natural disasters are assumed to attract Government and private charitable sector support. Council maintains debt at a level that allows for additional borrowing to cover unexpected events and expenses that are not covered by insurance. 8
TRANSPORT Funding from New Zealand Transport Agency (NZTA) and Horizons, and Transport Demand Trends The Manawatu District Council will receive funding from NZTA for the maintenance and renewal of roads. The proportion of NZTA funding will be 53% of costs, remaining at this level over the period of the Long Term Plan. That the roading projects included in the Long Term Plan will meet the ONRC funding criteria for national funding. That Horizons will continue to financially support the passenger transport services that are currently provided in the Manawatu District. That the total level of funding is reduced or that projects will not secure funding. Major If the total level of funding is reduced Council will need to make decisions about making up the difference or reducing the current level of service. Projects may be delayed due to the time and cost associated with preparing a business case to demonstrate that a project provides value for money in accordance with NZTA investment requirements. Projects that are not consistent with wider national and regional land transport priorities and objectives may not secure funding. Reduced investment in road maintenance on low use roads results in deterioration of the road and eventual pavement failure with increased complaints from road users. Possible Investment in the Manawatu- Whanganui Region, as set out in the National Land Transport Plan (NLTP), is primarily focussed on developing and maintaining a resilient transport network that supports getting produce to market. A number of the priority projects will have indirect benefits to the Manawatu District, improving connections through the District and reducing travel time. However, none of the primary investment projects included in the NLTP are located within the Manawatu District. Any projects within the Manawatu District will need to be justified in accordance with the NZTA Business Case Approach. If NZTA reduced funding in the future and/or lowered levels of service, increased rates (local share) or further efficiencies (or a combination of these) would be required to maintain service levels. Roading is a significant activity of Council and changes to NZTA funding can have a major impact on activity funding. Increased demand for cycleways and walkways will result in the need for increased funding. Given the need to economically justify projects under the One Network Road Classification (ONRC), marginal projects or projects that are not a good fit with the Government Policy Statement on Land Transport (GPS) are unlikely to proceed or would have to proceed without a subsidy from NZTA. More people walking or biking would slightly reduce the required maintenance on roads. New technology, better asset management and improved procurement practices may drive further efficiencies in the future reducing the costs of maintaining the roading network. Public transport is not traditionally a district Council function but Council is working closely with our provider, Horizons Regional Council, to ensure the best and most appropriate services for the Manawatu. 9
RESOURCE CONSENTS HELD BY COUNCIL That applications to renew resource consents will be granted but that Council will face additional costs through the application process, particularly in relation to wastewater discharges. Monitoring costs and requirements will be higher for consent renewals due to more stringent conditions. ALTERNATIVES IMPACT LIKELIHOOD OVERALL RISK REASONS AND FINANCIAL EFFECT That consents will be renewed and issued without major changes to conditions or requirements. If conditions and requirements are the same as for existing consents then Council will not have to increase budgets to comply with consent conditions. Council has a good understanding of its existing consent requirements and monitors expiry dates through asset management plans. Consents already approved under the One Plan have been subject to more stringent conditions and requirements than those issued under the previous Regional Plans. Given the recent Environment Court decision that ruled against Horizons Regional Council (NZEnvC ENV-2016-WLG- 000038), we think it is likely that the trend towards more stringent consent requirements will continue. If consents are renewed without major changes to conditions and requirements then there will be no need to increase the budget for consent monitoring and renewal included in the Asset Management Plans. Those that have already been adjusted in anticipation of new requirements may have a surplus. Council has a good working relationship with Horizons. The Council will monitor and work with Horizons to ensure it has sufficient notice of and is well-placed to manage any change required. While Council can advocate on the community s behalf, there is limited flexibility in terms of consent conditions. That consent applications will be declined. Severe If consents cannot be obtained new works could be delayed, impacting on provision of services. Council will need to develop alternative ways of managing infrastructure to find solutions that are able to be consented. Rare While we are anticipating increased costs in meeting new consent requirements we consider it highly unlikely that Council will fail to obtain consent. Council may need to make changes, such as eliminating any water-based treatment of wastewater discharges, but should be able to find solutions that meet the requirements of the One Plan and are supported by iwi and other stakeholders. If Council continued to operate without consent it may face enforcement action and fines. Affordability of services in small communities could become increasingly difficult. Council has a good working relationship with Horizons. The Council will monitor and work with Horizons to ensure it has sufficient notice of and is well-placed to manage any change required. While Council can advocate on the community s behalf, there is limited flexibility in terms of consent conditions. Council has recently been successful in obtaining government funding for both water and wastewater upgrades. Additional budget has been included in Asset Management Plans to offset the increased costs for consent renewals and to ensure compliance with new consent conditions. Council is also investigating options to pipe wastewater from the Villages to the Feilding Wastewater Treatment Plan for treatment. This will reduce the number of wastewater discharge consents that need to be renewed, thereby reducing the risk that consents will be declined or that significant upgrades will be required to wastewater treatment plans to meet new consent conditions. 10
INFLATION Costs will increase as set out in the Local Government Cost Index (LGCI) prepared by Business and Economic Research Ltd (BERL). That inflation costs will increase at a significantly higher rate than forecast in the LGCI Major Council may face increased costs if inflation rates differ significantly from forecasts. The biggest impact in the short term would be to threaten the viability of major projects. Significant (and unexpected) cost increases will raise questions over levels of service and affordability. The inflation forecasts in appendix one have been used to prepare the financial information within the Long Term Plan. These forecasts are updated each year and each new Long Term Plan uses the most recent update. Major projects and most infrastructure maintenance are subject to tenders. These tend to be multi-year contracts that reduce the risk to Council in the short term. Council can decide to not proceed with projects if tendered costs have exceeded the budget. Council closely monitors its budget and performance against budget. Emerging trends in the economy affecting inflation can be identified at early stages and budgets and spending adjusted if necessary to ensure there are no sudden impacts. Council also utilises several sources of funds including external and internal borrowing and rates so the risk of inflation is not to all sources of funding. That inflation costs will increase at a significantly lower rate than forecast in the LGCI It is possible that rates will vary significantly from that budgeted for, resulting in the need for major changes to future annual budgets. The inflation forecasts in appendix one have been used to prepare the financial information within the Long Term Plan. These forecasts are updated each year and each new Long Term Plan uses the most recent update. Council closely monitors its budget and performance against budget. Emerging trends in the economy affecting inflation can be identified at early stages and budgets and spending adjusted if necessary to ensure there are no sudden impacts. 11
INTEREST RATES Council has budgeted for this long-term plan that interest on loans raised will be on average x% over 10 years. It is assumed that return on investments made by Council will be on average xx% over 10 years. That the interest rates on loans will be significantly higher than forecast That interest rates on loans will be significantly lower than forecast Significant increases will impact the most on infrastructure and community activities with major upgrades or asset renewals planned. Significant increases will impact the most on infrastructure and community activities with major upgrades or asset renewals planned. Investment rates will generally follow interest rates and maintain a consistent difference. Investment rates will generally follow interest rates and maintain a consistent difference. Based on Council projected borrowings levels, interest costs will increase / decrease by between $a and $z per annum for every 1% movement in interest rates over 10 years. Council investments will increase / decrease by between $a and $z per annum for every 1% movement in interest rates over 10 years. Interest rates are largely driven by factors external to the New Zealand economy. Council is not predicting a significant increase in borrowings over the 10-year period. Council has in place an interest rate strategy (swaps) to deliver greater certainty over the interest rate cost for the duration of the Long Term Plan. The Council is a member of the LGFA and as such has access to overseas sources of funds and lower interest rates. That returns on investments will be significantly higher than forecast There will be no significant effect on the community or levels of service. Council does not rely on interest revenue for running its operations so the impact will be minimal. Investment rates will generally follow interest rates and maintain a consistent difference. That returns on investments will be significantly lower than forecast There will be no significant effect on the community or levels of service. Council does not rely on interest revenue for running its operations so the impact will be minimal. Investment rates will generally follow interest rates and maintain a consistent difference. 12
USEFUL LIFE OF ASSETS That assets will deliver the required level of service over its documented useful life. That assets will fail earlier than their documented useful life Major Insufficient renewals would impact on service reliability with increasing asset failures. Possible Various factors can affect when an asset is replaced, including an extraordinary event, increased demand, or an increased rate of deterioration. It is difficult to predict for each asset component which factor will determine its need for replacement. Significant unanticipated asset deterioration either due to external events or inadequate condition rating could result in insufficient depreciation funding for renewals. Unbudgeted capital will have to be met either through higher than expected rates increases or increased borrowing. In the case of the latter, this will lead to unbudgeted interest payments. Monitoring condition of assets on an ongoing basis and updating of asset management plans with condition scores should ensure there is little unanticipated replacement works required. That assets will continue to deliver their required level of service beyond their documented useful life This will mean that assets are able to be renewed later in their life. Possible Various factors can affect when an asset is replaced, including an extraordinary event, increased demand, or an increased rate of deterioration. It is difficult to predict for each asset component which factor will determine its need for replacement. Guarded Longer asset lives overall would mean Council is currently rating too high for depreciation. Monitoring of asset components via annual updating of Asset Management Plans will provide some advanced notice as to when asset components will need to be replaced. 13
CAPITAL WORKS COSTS Capital works costs will not vary significantly from those budgeted. That capital works costs will be significantly more than budgeted Major The effect on the community depends on the scale of the variance. Council could face higher than budgeted costs that does not fit within the Financial Strategy limits. Financial budgeting is indicative and it is common for projects to incur cost overruns or underbudget results. There is a considerable cost associated with making project budgets more accurate. More time is spent on estimating projects in the first three years of the Long Term Plan, with generally less confidence given to projects in years 4-10. Higher than anticipated costs could result in increased debt levels and unbudgeted interest repayments, or deferral of programmes. Levels of service can be revised annually. Project planning and business case processes are in place to increase the accuracy of planned projects. Projects are reassessed as part of each Long Term Plan process and costs are updated to reflect the latest costings and technology changes That capital works costs will be significantly less than budgeted Financial budgeting is indicative and it is common for projects to incur cost overruns or underbudget results. There is a considerable cost associated with making project budgets more accurate. More time is spent on estimating projects in the first three years of the Long Term Plan, with generally less confidence given to projects in years 4-10. Guarded If costs are lower Council could increase levels of service or reduce rate increases. Levels of service can be revised annually. Project planning and business case processes are in place to increase the accuracy of planned projects. Projects are reassessed as part of each Long Term Plan process and costs are updated to reflect the latest costings and technology changes 14
VALUATIONS The value of infrastructure, land and buildings will increase at the same rate as the relevant inflation category over time That the value of infrastructure, land and buildings will increase at a higher rate than the relevant inflation category Increased valuations would require higher than forecast depreciation funding and this will impact on Council s other spending. Infrastructure assets are revalued annually on 1 July by internal staff members in accordance with the District Council s Policy. As accounting standard PBE IPSAS 17 Property, Plant and Equipment no longer requires internal revaluations to be subject to external peer review, the District Council has chosen to obtain an independent peer review every third year rather than annually. A peer review was undertaken for the revaluation as at 1 July 2016. Guarded Higher valuations could result in higher depreciation requirements that impact on Council level of services able to be delivered within the forecast funding limits. Revaluations are done annually in order to ensure the Council accurately reflects the renewal costs of assets. That the value of infrastructure, land and buildings will increase at a lower rate than the relevant inflation category er valuations will require lower than forecast depreciation funding. Infrastructure assets are revalued annually on 1 July by internal staff members in accordance with the Council Policy. As accounting standard PBE IPSAS 17 Property, Plant and Equipment no longer requires internal revaluations to be subject to external peer review, the District Council has chosen to obtain an independent peer review every third year rather than annually. A peer review was undertaken for the revaluation as at 1 July 2016. Guarded If depreciation costs are lower Council could increase levels of service or reduce rate increases. Revaluations are done annually in order to ensure the Council accurately reflects the renewal costs of assets. 15
RENEWABILITY OR OTHERWISE OF EXTERNAL FUNDING Council will be able to borrow at the required level That Council is not able to borrow at the required level Severe If Council s ability to borrow is affected then three options exist defer capital works, reduce levels of service or increase rates or other operating funding (fees and charges, grants) to fund capital works. If less capital works are undertaken this would lead to lower levels of service. Rare Local government in New Zealand has no current or forecast issues in accessing debt funding. Risk is seen as low as Council have access to the LGFA funding market. The economic picture in New Zealand is positive. Indicators are that this will continue for some time. The Reserve Bank says New Zealand s financial system is sound and continues to operate effectively. Three key risks to future financial stability have been identified housing market vulnerabilities, bank funding pressures and dairy sector indebtedness. There is high demand for local government debt. The Council now has access to the LGFA that can source funds from overseas as well as NZ. The Council enjoys a strong relationship and loan facilities with its bankers, which could be drawn down if the need arose. The financial strategy is prudent in all regards with debt levels reflecting a prudent approach. The Council has access to finance through the New Zealand Local Government Funding Agency (LGFA), a dedicated financing vehicle for local government. While it is likely Council will be able to secure loans, it cannot be guaranteed. 16
SOURCE OF FUNDS FOR FUTURE REPLACEMENT OF SIGNIFICANT ASSETS That the depreciation reserves will adequately fund the renewals of assets over the 10 year period and the longer term (to 2048). That the depreciation reserves are insufficient to fund the renewals of assets over the 10 year period and the longer term. Major There will be a shortfall in funds available to replace assets. A shortfall in funds would require Council to either: Reduce service levels Increase debt Increase rates. The depreciation reserves have a substantial positive balance currently so should be sufficient to fund renewals of assets, at least over the short term. Since 2009 Council has built depreciation reserves over time to fund the long term renewals of assets. The impact of the uncertainty on rating levels is likely to be immaterial in the short term as the depreciation funds have an overall substantial positive balance (2015/16 opening balance $12 million). This balance is forecast to reach $x million at the end of the 10 year period (June 2026). This reflects that renewals are forecast to be less / more than the amount funded for depreciation. The assumptions on Inflation, Asset lives and Revaluation of Property, Plant and Equipment will have an impact on the required funding levels for depreciation over the medium to long term. Council is able to access borrowings to supplement depreciation reserves if required at levels forecast within the Long Term Plan. 17