S&P 5 Industry Briefing: S&P 5 Excluding Financials September 5, 218 Dr. Ed Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@ Joe Abbott 732-497-536 jabbott@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of Contents S&P 5 ex-financials Forward Earnings & Revenues 1 S&P 5 ex-financials Margin & Valuation 2 S&P 5 ex-financials NERI 3 S&P 5 ex-financials Forward Earnings & Revenues 4 September 5, 218 / S&P 5 Excluding Financials www.
184 4 124 94 S&P 5 ex-financials Forward Earnings & Revenues Figure 1. AGGREGATE FORWARD EARNINGS* (ratio scale, billion dollars) 8/3 184 4 124 94 64 34 S&P 5 (1448.2) Financials (27.) S&P 5 ex-financials (1178.2) 64 34 4 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 2 216 217 218 219 4 * Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current and next year. Monthly through December, weekly thereafter. 146 126 16 Figure 2. AGGREGATE FORWARD REVENUES* (ratio scale, billion dollars) 8/3 146 126 16 86 86 66 66 46 S&P 5 (11718.8) Financials (1424.4) S&P 5 ex-financials (1294.4) 46 26 26 6 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 2 216 217 218 219 6 * Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current and next year. Monthly through December, weekly thereafter. Page 1 / September 5, 218 / S&P 5 Excluding Financials www.
35 Figure 3. S&P 5 ex-financials Margin & Valuation FORWARD PROFIT MARGIN* (percent) 35 3 S&P 5 (12.4) S&P 5 Financials (19.) S&P 5 ex-financials (11.4) 3 2 2 8/3 1 1 5 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 2 216 217 218 219 5 * Using consensus forward revenues and earnings forecasts. Monthly through December, weekly thereafter. 31 27 23 Figure 4. FORWARD P/E RATIO* S&P 5 (17.1) S&P 5 Financials (12.7) S&P 5 ex-financials (18.1) 31 27 23 19 11 8/3 19 11 7 1 P/E Difference Attributable To Financials (-1.) 7 1-1 8/3-1 -3 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 2 216 217 218 219-3 * Price divided by consensus forward earnings forecast. Monthly through December, weekly thereafter. Page 2 / September 5, 218 / S&P 5 Excluding Financials www.
4 3 2 1-1 -3-4 -5 4 Figure 5. NET REVISIONS* (% estimates up less down) S&P 5 (7.) S&P 5 Financials (6.7) S&P 5 ex-financials (7.1) S&P 5 ex-financials NERI Aug 4 3 2 1-1 -3-4 -5 4 2 2 Aug -4-6 S&P 5 NERI Points Attributable To Financials (-.1) 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 2 216 217 218 219-4 -6 * Three-month moving average of the number of estimates up less number of estimates down, expressed as a percentage of the total number of estimates. Page 3 / September 5, 218 / S&P 5 Excluding Financials www.
75 S&P 5 ex-financials Forward Earnings & Revenues Figure 6. FORWARD EARNINGS* (yearly percent change) 75 5 5 8/3 5 5-5 -75 S&P 5 (21.4) S&P 5 Financials (24.4) S&P 5 ex-financials (21.3) 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 2 216 217 218 219-5 -75 * Using consensus forward earnings forecasts. Monthly through December, weekly thereafter. 4 3 2 Figure 7. FORWARD REVENUES* (yearly percent change) S&P 5 (9.5) Financials (7.8) S&P 5 ex-financials (8.8) 4 3 2 1 8/3 1-1 -1-3 -3-4 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 2 216 217 218 219-4 * Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current and next year. Monthly through December, weekly thereafter. Page 4 / September 5, 218 / S&P 5 Excluding Financials www.
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