The purpose of producing this report is to present a general view on the market, equities and commodities subject under research, and not to recommend a buy/sell/hold for any security or any other assets. Based on that, this report does not take into consideration the specific financial position of every investor and/or his/her risk appetite in relation to investing in the security or any other assets, and hence, no information in this analysis should be considered as being business, financial and legal advice.
TADAWUL: MONTHLY CHART LONG-TERM VIEW TADAWUL: DAILY CHART SHORT-TERM VIEW Source: Bloomberg Trend Overview: On the monthly charts, the index is still moving in uptrend since Q1-2009. The movement was ended in a bullish candlestick formation with two longlegged candlestick pattern, suggesting consolidation at current level and indicates a likely pause in the strong downtrend. Also, the last month s candle is above the previous month s candle, corroborating the above observation. The monthly RSI has turned up above the (50) level, supporting this observation and indicating a mid-term rise. Estimation: In the coming month, the index could rise toward 9,192 and 9,656 if it sustains above 8,728. Source: Bloomberg On the Daily charts, the TASI is trading above its upward sloping trend line after breaking the downtrend, and ended in a bearish small body candlestick formation, suggesting a strong resistance at 8949, which represents the previous peak. The daily RSI in the positive terrain has turned down, suggesting the index could start to negatively reverse in the near term. Despite this, the recent Royal decisions in the last week could support turning the scenario into a positive side. Estimation: The index could penetrate 8,949 and rise toward 9,226 and 9,677 if it sustains above 8,450. in contrast, breakout below 8450 could end the mid-term upward path. 2
4250: JABAL OMAR DEVELOPMENT : BUY TECHNICAL SUMMARY The stock ended at SAR 56.01 On the weekly charts, the stock ended in a bullish candlestick formation above the current sideway trend, suggesting continued rebound. consolidation near the 20-week SMA supports the above observation. in addition, the breakout is confirmed by higher than the average volumes. Traders could consider buying above SAR 56.00, with a stop loss of weekly close below SAR 53.50 and a target price of SAR62.75. 58.60 61.50 53.50 51.75 2002: NATIONAL PETROCHEMICAL (PETROCHEM ) : BUY The stock ended at SAR 24.76 On the weekly charts, the stock ended above the 10-week SMA for the first time since Oct-2014. It forms a bullish candlestick formation above the previous candle s high, suggesting continued rebound. The RSI has turned up, supporting this observation and indicating a near-term rise. Traders could consider buying above SAR 24.75, with a stop loss of weekly close below SAR23.90 for a target price of SAR28.00. 26.10 28 22.75 21.65 3
2280 : ALMARAI COMPANY : BUY TECHNICAL SUMMARY The stock ended at SAR 83.95 On the weekly charts, it breached the Bullish Symmetrical Triangle, signifying the end of sideway movement for the stock. The stock ended in a bullish candlestick formation above the previous peaks, suggesting continued rebound. The weekly RSI is in the positive terrain, suggesting the stock could gain in the coming sessions. Traders could consider buying above SAR83.50, with a stop loss of weekly close below SAR79.30 for a target price of SAR93.0 86.75 89.25 79.30 77.25 4230: RED SEA HOUSING SERVICES COMPANY : BUY The stock ended at SAR 40.43 On the weekly charts, the stock breached the downward sloping trend line and ended above the 38% retracement, suggesting optimism. Furthermore, consolidation above the 10-week SMA supports the above observation. Daily momentum oscillators in the positive terrain indicates further upside potential. Traders could consider buying above SAR40.50, with a stop loss of weekly close below SAR39.00 for a target price of SAR46.25. 42.50 44.80 39.00 37.50 4
4040: SAUDI PUBLIC TRANSPORT (SAPTCO ) : BUY TECHNICAL SUMMARY The stock ended at SAR 25.67 On the weekly charts, the stock stabilized above the lower Bollinger band, signifying increased upside momentum in the near term, suggesting continued rebound. Furthermore, it ended above the 10-week SMA for the first time since Oct-2014 and forms a bullish candlestick above the downward sloping trend line. Therefore, we expect the stock to strongly rebound in the near term. Traders could consider buying above SAR25.70, with a stop loss of weekly close below SAR23.25 for a target price of SAR 30.00. 3091: AL JOUF CEMENT COMPANY : BUY The stock ended at SAR16.07 26.60 28.40 24.75 23.25 On the weekly charts, the stock ended above the 10-week SMA for the first time since Oct-2014. It forms a bullish candlestick formation with above-average volume, supporting the bullish bias on the stock. The RSI has turned up, supporting this observation and indicating a nearterm rise Traders could consider buying above SAR16.10, with a stop loss of weekly close below SAR15.20 for a target price of SAR18.60 17.25 18.50 15.20 14.25 5
2040: SAUDI CERAMIC COMPANY : BUY TECHNICAL SUMMARY The stock ended at SAR109.64 On the weekly charts, it breached the Pennant formation, signifying the end of narrow fluctuation for the stock. The stock ended above the 10- week SMA for the first time since Nov-2014, suggesting continued rebound. The weekly RSI is in the positive terrain, suggesting the stock could gain in the coming sessions. Traders could consider buying above SAR110.25, with a stop loss of weekly close below SAR106.5 for a target price of SAR123.0 1302: BAWAN COMPANY : BUY 116.90 119.50 106.50 101.50 The stock ended at SAR55.03 On the weekly charts, the stock breached the downward sloping trend line and in ends a bullish candlestick formation, suggesting optimism. Furthermore, consolidation above the 10-week SMA supports the above observation. Daily momentum oscillators in the positive terrain indicates further upside potential. Traders could consider buying above SAR55.00, with a stop loss of weekly close below SAR52.75 for a target price of SAR62.50 56.80 60.75 52.75 48.50 6
COMMODITY ANALYSIS: BRENT OIL MAY RISE TO $72.13 IN H2-2015 TECHNICAL SUMMARY The index ended at $52.99 On the Monthly charts, the price is moving in the last corrective wave (C) of a three-wave cycle (A), (B) and (C). The index found support near the 200% Fibonacci projection ($48.58) and ended in a monthly close above the support, indicating a mid-term rebound. Despite of a positive anticipation, Its hard to confirm the end of correction before the next month close and the next month candlestick formation. The index ended in a weekly bullish candlestick pattern, suggesting optimism and further upside potential toward $61.83 in the near term and $72.13 at the end of 2015. Breakout and a monthly close below $48.58 could open the way towards the next support at $36.20. Source: Bloomberg 7
COMMODITY ANALYSIS: SPOT GOLD TO DECLINE INTO A RANGE OF 1180.50 956.70 IN 2015 TECHNICAL SUMMARY The index ended at $1283.79 On the Weekly charts, the price is moving in the first wave (A) of a threewave cycle that developed from Sep- 2011 high of $1921. A detailed study on the structure of the wave (A) suggests a maximum fall toward $956.70 The index faced resistance at the top of the descending triangle ($1307.6), indicating the trend is likely to resume declining toward the first target of $1180.50 The index ended in a weekly bearish candlestick pattern with Hanging Man formation, suggesting further downside potential toward $1180.50 in the midterm and $956.70 in the long-term. breakout and a weekly close above $1307.62 could take the index higher in the medium term. Source: Bloomberg 8
COMMODITY ANALYSIS: DOLLAR INDEX TO RISE TO 96.51 IN NEAR-TERM. TECHNICAL SUMMARY The index ended at 94.80 On the Monthly charts, the price is moving in the second corrective wave ((B)) that developed from March 2008 low of 70.96. A detailed study on the structure of the uncompleted wave ((B)) shows upward breakout from the combinations of corrective patterns double threes, suggesting further upside toward 96.51 in the near term. The monthly RSI has positively breached the overbought level (70), supporting the optimistic view on the index. Moreover, the short-term moving average 10-month SMA crosses the longer-term average 20-month SMA from below, supporting the bullish bias on the index. The index ended in a monthly bullish candlestick pattern, suggesting further upside potential toward 96.51 in the short-term and 104.22 in the mid-term. Source: Bloomberg 9
AGM - Head of Research Abdullah Alawi +966 11 2256250 a.alawi@aljaziracapital.com.sa Senior Analyst Syed Taimure Akhtar +966 11 2256146 s.akhtar@aljaziracapital.com.sa Analyst Sultan Al Kadi +966 11 2256374 s.alkadi@aljaziracapital.com.sa Research Division Senior Analyst Talha Nazar +966 11 2256115 t.nazar@aljaziracapital.com.sa Analyst Jassim Al-Jubran +966 11 2256248 j.aljabran@aljaziracapital.com.sa Brokerage And Investment Centers Division General Manager - Brokerage Division Ala a Al-Yousef +966 11 2256000 a.yousef@aljaziracapital.com.sa Sales And Investment Centers Central Region Manager Sultan Ibrahim AL-Mutawa +966 11 2256364 s.almutawa@aljaziracapital.com.sa AGM - Head of International and Institutional Brokerage Luay Jawad Al-Motawa +966 11 2256277 lalmutawa@aljaziracapital.com.sa Area Manager - Qassim & Eastern Province Abdullah Al-Rahit +966 16 3617547 aalrahit@aljaziracapital.com.sa Regional Manager - West and South Regions Abdullah Al-Misbahi +966 12 6618400 a.almisbahi@aljaziracapital.com.sa AGM - Head of Institutional Brokerage Samer Al-Jaouni +966 11 225 6352 s.aljaouni@aljaziracapital.com.sa 10
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