Data Digest: Florida September 2012
Broad indicators of economic activity for both Florida and the United States have been improving since 2010; however, Florida s pace of recovery continues to be much slower than that of the nation. About the Coincident Economic Indicator Jan 2001 = 100 120 Coincident Economic Indicator 115 110 105 100 95 United States Florida 90 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia 2
Total employment in Florida has been increasing since 2010, albeit at a tepid pace. The last time the state saw similar levels of total employment was in 2004. Thousands, seasonally adjusted 8,500 Florida Payroll Employment 8,000 7,500 7,000 6,500 6,000 5,500 5,000 4,500 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics 3
All industries in Florida lost jobs during the economic downturn with construction being the hardest hit. Since their troughs, construction has not gained any additional jobs while all other sectors have added to employment levels. Leisure and hospitality, business services, financial services, transportation/ warehousing/utilities, and retail trade have gained more than the state average. Local government Federal & state government Other services Leisure & hospitality Education & healthcare Business services Financial services Information Transport/Warehousing/Utilities Retail trade Wholesale trade Manufacturing Construction Total Employment Loss and Gain by Industry: Florida -53.4 Percent change peak to trough Percent change trough to present Note: A reading of 0.0 in the trough to present measure indicates that employment continues to decline in these industries. Likewise, a reading of 0.0 in the peak to trough measure indicates that employment continues to increase in these industries; in this instance "trough to present" is the percent change from January 2007 to present. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta -24.6-18.7-16.1-60 -50-40 -30-20 -10 0 10 20-13.4-14.6-14.6-11.3-10.6-11.5-5.9-7.4-4.3-1.0 0.6 0.7 0.2 1.1 0.9 0.0 2.4 1.3 2.7 2.5 5.5 4.8 5.4 9.9 4
Momentum improved for the largest sectors of Florida s economy in July. Construction, other services, and federal and state government employment contracted. Transportation/ warehouse/utilities slipped slightly. About Employment Momentum 3-month average annualized percent change 9 7 5 3 1-1 -3-5 -7-9 Improving Construction Employment Momentum by Industry: Florida Federal and state government Other services Wholesale trade Financial services Information Manufacturing Local government Leisure and hospitality Education and health care Transport/ Warehouse/ Utilities Retail trade Business services Expanding -11-13 Contracting Slipping -6-4 -2 0 2 4 6 Year-over-year percent change Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 5
Job losses in Florida and all of its metro areas were significant during the economic downturn, but almost all have shown gains since their trough. Naples experienced the largest job gains through July. W. Palm Beach Tampa-St. Pete Tallahassee Vero Beach Sarasota Punta Gorda St. Lucie-Ft. Pierce Pensacola Panama City Orlando Ocala Naples Miami-Ft.L'dale Melbourne Lakeland Jacksonville Gainesville Ft. Myers Daytona Florida Employment Loss and Gain by Metro Area: Florida -13.7-15.1-13.0-13.3 Percent change peak to trough Percent change trough to present -16.8-18.1-16.6-12.2-11.2-10.2-10.6-10.9-9.2-8.9-11.7-11.5-10.5-9.4-8.6-25 -20-15 -10-5 0 5 10 Note: A reading of 0.0 in the trough to present measure indicates that employment continues to decline in these metro areas. Likewise, a reading of 0.0 in the peak to trough measure indicates that employment continues to increase in these metro areas; in this instance "trough to present" is the percent change from January 2007 to present. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta -7.1 0.5 2.3 1.6 0.0 1.4 2.2 2.1 3.2 1.8 4.3 2.8 1.3 1.9 1.9 1.3 3.9 1.0 2.5 5.5 6.9 6
Several of Florida s smaller metro areas showed positive momentum in July. The Miami-Ft. Lauderdale metro area saw its employment momentum slip, however. About Employment Momentum 6 Improving Employment Momentum by Metro Area: Florida Expanding 3-month average annualized percent change 4 2 0-2 -4-6 Pensacola St. Lucie-Ft. Pierce Gainesville Tallahassee Lakeland Orlando Daytona Melbourne Ocala Miami-Ft. Lauderdale Jacksonville Tampa-St. Pete Punta Gorda Ft. Myers Sarasota West Palm Beach Panama City Naples -8 Vero Beach Contracting Slipping -10-4 -3-2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 Year-over-year percent change Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 7
Florida s employment momentum was unchanged from last month and remained in the expanding quadrant, albeit barely. About Employment Momentum Track 4 Improving Employment Momentum Track: Florida January 2007 Expanding 3-month average percent change, annualized 2 0-2 -4-6 -8-10 Contracting Slipping -8-7 -6-5 -4-3 -2-1 0 1 2 3 Year-over-year percent change Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 8
In July both Florida and the nation s unemployment rates increased from June, to 8.8 percent and 8.3 percent, respectively. Percent of labor force 12 Unemployment Rates 11 10 9 8 Florida United States 7 6 5 4 3 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics 9
Initial claims for unemployment insurance have ticked up slightly in recent weeks but remain well below their peak from early 2009. 4-week moving average 30,000 Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims: Florida August 11, 2012 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 Initial claims averaged just over 10,000 during 2004 2006. The current number of initial claims remains elevated. 5,000 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: U.S. Department of Labor Employment and Training Administration, Haver Analytics 10
Consumer confidence in Florida bounced up in July while sales tax revenue growth continued to decelerate. 1966 = 100 100 Florida Sales Tax Revenue and Consumer Confidence Year-to-year change, 3-month moving average 20 95 90 85 80 Florida Consumer Confidence (left scale) Florida Sales Tax Revenue (right scale) 15 10 5 75 0 70 65 60 Sales tax revenues have been helped by healthy activity in the leisure and hospitality sector. International visitors have played an important role in boosting tourism spending. -5-10 55 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: Florida Department of Revenue, University of Florida Bureau of Economic and Business Research Center, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta -15 11
The Southeast Purchasing Managers Index, which measures regional manufacturing activity, dropped to 48.5 in July. Florida s component decreased to 48.7. Both indices indicate that activity is contracting. 70 Southeast Purchasing Managers Index 65 60 55 50 45 40 The Florida component of the SE PMI was 48.7 in. 35 30 25 20 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Note: 50+ = Expansion Source: Kennesaw State University, Coles College of Business Econometric Center 12
Home prices in Florida have declined substantially over the past five years. From 2009 to late 2011, prices began to stabilize. In recent months, home prices have improved, particularly in Tampa and Miami. Jan 2000 = 100 300 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index through June 2012 275 250 225 200 175 150 125 Miami Tampa Composite 20 100 75 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: S&P, Haver Analytics Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 13
The number of new home permits in Florida and nationally increased slightly in July; however, new home construction levels remain near historic lows. 200,000 New Residential Home Construction Permits 30,000 180,000 160,000 25,000 140,000 120,000 20,000 100,000 15,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 United States (left scale) Florida (right scale) 10,000 5,000 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 0 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Haver Analytics 14
Sales growth for Florida Realtors increased while homebuilders saw similar activity as in June, according to the Atlanta Fed s Real Estate Poll. Both readings remained in positive territory. About the Real Estate Contact Poll 1.0 FRB Atlanta Real Estate Contact Poll: Florida Current Home Sales vs Year-ago Levels 0.8 0.6 0.4 Realtors Homebuilders 0.2 0.0-0.2-0.4-0.6-0.8-1.0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 15
Office vacancy rates rose for Jacksonville and Ft. Lauderdale and declined for Tampa and Orlando. Miami s rate was unchanged from the first quarter of 2012. Percent 24 22 20 18 16 United States Ft. Lauderdale Jacksonville Miami Orlando Tampa Office Vacancy Rate Q2 2012 14 12 10 8 6 4 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: CB Richard Ellis, Haver Analytics 16
Industrial availability rates in Jacksonville, Fort Lauderdale, and Miami rose during the second quarter of 2012. During the same period, the rate declined in Orlando and was flat for Tampa. Percent 24 Industrial Availability Rate Q2 2012 22 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 United States Ft. Lauderdale Jacksonville Miami Orlando Tampa 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Note: There was a break in the series for Fort Lauderdale and Miami from Q2 2006 through Q3 2007. Source: CB Richard Ellis, Haver Analytics 17
For additional sources of information, see our Local Economic Analysis Research Network membership at www.frbatlanta.org/rein/learn/map/learn_members.cfm 18