US Commercial Banks November 18, 211 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@ Mali Quintana 48-664-1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of Contents Bank Credit 1-2 Securities 3-4 Loans 5 C&I Loans 6 Real Estate Loans 7 Consumer Loans 8 Liabilities 9-1 Borrowings 11 Miscellaneous Banking 12-13 Large Banks 14-16 Small Banks 17-19 Commercial Paper 2-21 Large & Small Banks 22-24 Commercial Bank Capital Proxy 25 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey 26 November 18, 211 / US Commercial Banks www.
1. 9.5 9. 8.5 8. 7.5 7. 6.5 6. 5.5 5. 4.5 4. 3.5 3. 2.5 2. Figure 1. BANKS: TOTAL CREDIT (trillion dollars, sa) - Bank Credit - 1. 9.5 9. 8.5 8. 7.5 7. 6.5 6. 5.5 5. 4.5 4. 3.5 3. 2.5 2. * Includes loans, leases, and securities. 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2-3 -4-5 -6-7 Figure 2. BANKS: TOTAL CREDIT At All Banks 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2-3 -4-5 -6-7 Page 1 / November 18, 211 / US Commercial Banks www.
3 Figure 3. BANKS: SECURITIES - Bank Credit - 3 2 2 1 1-1 -1 * Break in data. New accounting rules adopted in April 1995. 1 Figure 4. BANKS: LOANS & LEASES (yearly change, billion dollars, sa) 1 5 5-5 -5-1 -1 Page 2 / November 18, 211 / US Commercial Banks www.
255 245 235 225 215 25 195 185 175 165 155 145 135 125 115 15 95 85 75 65 55 45 Figure 5. BANKS: SECURITIES Total Securities - Securities - 255 245 235 225 215 25 195 185 175 165 155 145 135 125 115 15 95 85 75 65 55 45 19 17 Figure 6. BANKS: SECURITIES 19 17 15 15 13 11 US Treasury & Agency Securities Other Securities 13 11 9 9 7 7 5 5 3 3 1 1 Page 3 / November 18, 211 / US Commercial Banks www.
3 Figure 7. BANKS: US TREASURY & AGENCY SECURITIES (billion dollars, yearly change) - Securities - 3 2 2 1 1-1 -1-2 -2 26 25 24 23 22 21 2 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 Figure 8. BANKS: US TREASURY & AGENCY SECURITIES (as a percent of bank credit) 26 25 24 23 22 21 2 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 Page 4 / November 18, 211 / US Commercial Banks www.
74 7 Figure 9. BANKS: LOANS & LEASES IN BANK CREDIT - Loans - 74 7 66 66 62 62 58 58 54 54 5 5 46 46 42 42 38 38 34 34 3 3 26 26 22 18 22 18 1 Figure 1. BANKS: LOANS & LEASES IN BANK CREDIT 1 5 Securities* 5-5 -5-1 -1 * Break in data. New accounting rules adopted in April 1995. Page 5 / November 18, 211 / US Commercial Banks www.
175 165 155 145 Figure 11. BANKS: COMMERCIAL & INDUSTRIAL LOANS - C&I Loans - 175 165 155 145 135 125 115 15 95 85 75 65 55 135 125 115 15 95 85 75 65 55 35 3 25 2 15 1 5-5 -1-15 -2-25 -3-35 Figure 12. BANKS: COMMERCIAL & INDUSTRIAL LOANS 35 3 25 2 15 1 5-5 -1-15 -2-25 -3-35 Page 6 / November 18, 211 / US Commercial Banks www.
2 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 Figure 13. BANKS: MISC. REAL ESTATE LOANS Commercial Real Estate Other Residential Loans Home Equity Loans 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 - Real Estate Loans - 2 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 3 25 2 15 Figure 14. BANKS: MISC. REAL ESTATE LOANS Commercial Real Estate Other Residential Loans Home Equity Loans 3 25 2 15 1 1 5 5-5 -5-1 -1-15 -2 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212-15 -2 Page 7 / November 18, 211 / US Commercial Banks www.
- Consumer Loans - 75 7 Figure 15. BANKS LOANS 75 7 65 Other Consumer Loans 65 6 Credit Card & Other Revolving Plans 6 55 55 5 5 45 45 4 4 35 35 3 3 25 25 2 15 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 2 15 325 3 275 25 225 2 175 15 125 1 75 5 25-25 -5-75 -1 Figure 16. BANKS LOANS Other Consumer Loans Credit Card & Other Revolving Plans 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 325 3 275 25 225 2 175 15 125 1 75 5 25-25 -5-75 -1 Page 8 / November 18, 211 / US Commercial Banks www.
- Liabilities - 115 15 Figure 17. BANKS: TOTAL LIABILITIES 115 15 95 95 85 85 75 75 65 65 55 55 45 45 35 35 25 25 2 Figure 18. BANKS: TOTAL LIABILITIES 2 15 15 1 1 5 5-5 -5-1 -1 Page 9 / November 18, 211 / US Commercial Banks www.
- Liabilities - 9 Figure 19. BANKS: TOTAL DEPOSITS 9 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 Figure 2. BANKS: TOTAL DEPOSITS 1 8 8 6 6 4 4 2 2-2 -2 Page 1 / November 18, 211 / US Commercial Banks www.
- Borrowings - 28 26 Figure 21. BANKS: BORROWINGS* 28 26 24 24 22 22 2 2 18 18 16 By All Banks 16 14 14 12 12 1 1 8 8 6 4 6 4 * From banks and nonbanks in the US. 7 5 Figure 22. BANKS: BORROWINGS* 7 5 3 3 1 1-1 -1-3 -3-5 -5-7 -7 * From banks and nonbanks in the U.S. Page 11 / November 18, 211 / US Commercial Banks www.
22 2 Figure 23. BANKS: CASH ASSETS OF COMMERCIAL BANKS (billion dollars) - Miscellaneous Banking - 22 2 18 18 16 16 14 14 12 12 1 1 8 8 6 6 4 2 Source: Federal Reserve Board. 4 2 65 55 Figure 24. BANKS: NET DUE TO RELATED FOREIGN OFFICES (billion dollars) 65 55 45 45 35 25 35 25 15 15 5 5-5 -5-15 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212-15 Page 12 / November 18, 211 / US Commercial Banks www.
24 2 Figure 25. BANKS: RESIDUAL (ASSETS LESS LIABILITIES) - Miscellaneous Banking - 24 2 16 16 12 12 8 8 4 4-4 -4-8 -8 47 45 43 41 39 37 35 33 31 29 27 25 23 21 19 Figure 26. TRADING ASSETS & LIABILITIES AT ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS Derivatives with a positive fair value Derivatives with a negative fair value 17 15 III IV I II III IV I II III IV 29 21 211 Source: Federal Reserve Board, Table H.8. Week ending Wednesday. 47 45 43 41 39 37 35 33 31 29 27 25 23 21 19 17 15 Page 13 / November 18, 211 / US Commercial Banks www.
- Large Banks - 6 55 Figure 27. LARGE BANKS: BANK CREDIT 6 55 5 5 45 45 4 4 35 35 3 3 25 25 2 2 15 15 68 66 Figure 28. LARGE BANKS: BANK CREDIT (as a percent of total bank credit) 68 66 64 64 62 62 6 6 58 58 56 56 54 54 52 52 Page 14 / November 18, 211 / US Commercial Banks www.
- Large Banks - 16 Figure 29. LARGE BANKS: TOTAL SECURITIES 16 14 14 12 12 1 1 8 8 6 6 4 4 2 2 44 42 4 38 36 34 32 3 28 26 24 22 2 18 16 14 12 1 Figure 3. LARGE BANKS: TOTAL LOANS & LEASES 44 42 4 38 36 34 32 3 28 26 24 22 2 18 16 14 12 1 Page 15 / November 18, 211 / US Commercial Banks www.
- Large Banks - 5 Figure 31. LARGE BANKS 5 45 45 4 4 35 35 3 Total Deposits 3 25 25 2 2 15 15 1 1 1.5 Figure 32. LARGE BANKS: BORROWINGS 1.5 1. 1..5.5.. Page 16 / November 18, 211 / US Commercial Banks www.
35 Figure 33. SMALL BANKS: BANK CREDIT - Small Banks - 35 3 3 25 25 2 2 15 15 1 1 5 5 37 Figure 34. SMALL BANKS: BANK CREDIT (as a percent of total bank credit) 37 35 35 33 33 31 31 29 29 27 27 25 25 Page 17 / November 18, 211 / US Commercial Banks www.
- Small Banks - 8 75 Figure 35. SMALL BANKS: TOTAL SECURITIES 8 75 7 7 65 65 6 6 55 55 5 5 45 45 4 4 35 35 3 3 25 25 2 15 2 15 26 24 Figure 36. SMALL BANKS: TOTAL LOANS & LEASES 26 24 22 22 2 2 18 18 16 16 14 14 12 12 1 1 8 8 6 6 4 4 Page 18 / November 18, 211 / US Commercial Banks www.
- Small Banks - 3 Figure 37. SMALL BANKS 3 25 25 2 2 Total Deposits 15 15 1 1 5 5 65 6 55 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 Figure 38. SMALL BANKS: BORROWINGS 65 6 55 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 Page 19 / November 18, 211 / US Commercial Banks www.
1925 185 1775 17 1625 155 1475 14 1325 125 1175 11 125 95 875 8 725 65 Figure 39. C&I LOANS AT ALL BANKS PLUS NONFINANCIAL COMMERCIAL PAPER (billion dollars, nsa) - Commercial Paper - 1925 185 1775 17 1625 155 1475 14 1325 125 1175 11 125 95 875 8 725 65 1775 1575 1375 1175 975 775 575 38 34 3 26 22 18 14 1 6 Figure 4. COMMERCIAL & INDUSTRIAL LOANS (billion dollars, nsa) NONFINANCIAL COMMERCIAL PAPER (billion dollars, nsa) 11/16 1775 1575 1375 1175 975 775 575 38 34 3 26 22 18 14 1 6 Page 2 / November 18, 211 / US Commercial Banks www.
35 3 25 2 Figure 41. SHORT-TERM BUSINESS CREDIT - Commercial Paper - 35 3 25 2 15 1 5-5 -1 15 1 5-5 -1-15 -2-25 -3-35 Commercial & Industrial Loans Nonfinancial Commercial Paper -15-2 -25-3 -35 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5-5 -1-15 -2-25 -3-35 -4 Figure 42. C&I LOANS AT ALL BANKS PLUS NONFINANCIAL COMMERCIAL PAPER 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5-5 -1-15 -2-25 -3-35 -4 Page 21 / November 18, 211 / US Commercial Banks www.
75 Figure 43. BANK CREDIT - Large & Small Banks - 75 55 55 35 At Large Domestic Banks* At Small Domestic Banks* 35 15 15-5 -5-25 -25-45 -45 * Adjusted for mergers. 525 475 425 375 325 275 225 175 125 75 25-25 -75-125 -175-225 -275-325 -375-425 Figure 44. LOANS & LEASES At Large Domestic Banks* At Small Domestic Banks* 525 475 425 375 325 275 225 175 125 75 25-25 -75-125 -175-225 -275-325 -375-425 * Adjusted for mergers. Page 22 / November 18, 211 / US Commercial Banks www.
- Large & Small Banks - 18 16 Figure 45. SECURITIES AT BANKS 18 16 14 14 12 1 At Large Domestic Banks* 12 1 8 6 At Small Domestic Banks* 8 6 4 4 2-2 -4-6 -8-1 2-2 -4-6 -8-1 * Adjusted for mergers. Excluding US government securities. 5 4 Figure 46. DOMESTIC BORROWINGS 5 4 3 3 2 2 1 1-1 -1-2 -3 At Large Domestic Banks* At Small Domestic Bank* -2-3 -4-4 -5-5 -6-6 * Adjusted for mergers. Page 23 / November 18, 211 / US Commercial Banks www.
8 Figure 47. COMMERCIAL BANKS: CASH ASSETS (billion dollars) - Large & Small Banks - 8 7 7 6 6 5 Large Banks 5 4 Small Banks 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 Source: Federal Reserve Board. Page 24 / November 18, 211 / US Commercial Banks www.
- Commercial Bank Capital Proxy - 16 14 Figure 48. COMMERCIAL BANKS: CAPITAL PROXY* Oct 16 14 12 12 1 1 8 All Banks Large Banks 8 6 Small Banks 6 4 4 2 2-2 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15-2 * Assets minus liabilities. 22 2 Figure 49. COMMERCIAL BANKS: CAPITAL PROXY*/ASSETS 22 2 18 16 All Banks Large Banks 18 16 14 14 12 12 1 1 8 Oct 8 6 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 6 * Assets minus liabilities. Page 25 / November 18, 211 / US Commercial Banks www.
7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Figure 49. - Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey - SENIOR LOAN OFFICER OPINION SURVEY: BANKS TIGHTENING STANDARDS (net percentage of domestic respondents) Consumer Credit Loans Other Consumer Loans 7 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2-3 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2-3 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 SENIOR LOAN OFFICER OPINION SURVEY: BANKS TIGHTENING STANDARDS (net percentage of domestic respondents) C&I Loans to Large Firms C&I Loans to Small Firms Q4 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 SENIOR LOAN OFFICER OPINION SURVEY: BANKS TIGHTENING STANDARDS (net percentage of domestic respondents) 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 Source: Federal Reserve Board. Residential Mortgages Q4 Q4-1 -2-3 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2-3 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2 Page 26 / November 18, 211 / US Commercial Banks www.
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