Market Briefing: Global Markets

Market Briefing: Global Markets July 6, 218 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@ Mali Quintana 48-664-1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at blog. thinking outside the box

Table Of Contents Table Of Contents US Stock Indexes 1 MSCI Indexes 2-5 Stock Markets: USA 6 Stock Markets: Americas 7 Stock Markets: Europe 8-9 Stock Markets: Asia 1-11 Stock Markets: Eastern Europe, Middle East, Africa 12 US$ Forex Rates: Europe 13 US$ Forex Rates: Asia 14 US$ Forex Rates: Americas 15 Trade-Weighted Dollar 16 1-Year Government Yields 17 Commodity Indexes 18 Commodity Prices: Energy 19 Commodity Prices: Precious Metals 2 Commodity Prices: Agriculture 21 July 6, 218 / Market Briefing: Global Markets

US Stock Indexes 3 2 Figure 1. S&P INDEX 3 2 2 2 24 24 22 22 1 1 1 1 14 14 12 12 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 2-day moving average Source: Standard & Poor s Corporation. 267 25 249 24 231 222 213 24 19 18 177 16 159 1 141 132 123 114 1 9 87 7 69 Figure 2. DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS AVERAGE 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 2-day moving average Source: The Wall Street Journal. 267 25 249 24 231 222 213 24 19 18 177 16 159 1 141 132 123 114 1 9 87 7 69 Page 1 / July 6, 218 / Market Briefing: Global Markets

MSCI Indexes 23 21 Figure 3. SHARE PRICE INDEXES (US dollars) 23 21 19 19 17 17 1 1 13 11 9 7 World 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 13 11 9 7 24 22 24 22 1 1 Europe 1 1 14 14 12 12 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 2 24 22 1 EAFE* 2 24 22 1 1 1 14 14 12 12 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 2-day moving average * The following countries are included: Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom, Israel, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Hong Kong, and Japan. Source: Morgan Stanley Capital International. Page 2 / July 6, 218 / Market Briefing: Global Markets

29 27 2 23 21 19 17 1 13 11 9 7 Figure 4. SHARE PRICE INDEXES (US dollars) World US MSCI Indexes 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 29 27 2 23 21 19 17 1 13 11 9 7 2 23 2 23 21 19 World EAFE* 21 19 17 17 1 1 13 13 11 11 9 9 7 7 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 24 22 1 1 14 12 4 2 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 *Europe, Austrailia, and Far East. Source: Morgan Stanley Capital International. World Emerging Markets 24 22 1 1 14 12 4 2 Page 3 / July 6, 218 / Market Briefing: Global Markets

MSCI Indexes 4 3 Figure 5. SHARE PRICE INDEXES (US dollars) World Japan 4 3 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 23 23 21 19 World United Kingdom 21 19 17 17 1 1 13 13 11 11 9 9 7 7 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 24 22 1 1 14 12 World EMU 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 Source: Morgan Stanley Capital International. 3 25 2 15 1 5 Page 4 / July 6, 218 / Market Briefing: Global Markets

MSCI Indexes 1 14 Figure 6. SHARE PRICE INDEXES (ratio scale, US dollars) 1 14 12 12 Emerging Markets 4 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 4 7 65 55 45 4 35 3 25 2 Emerging Markets: Asia 7 65 55 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 15 6 5 4 6 5 4 3 3 2 Emerging Markets: Latin America 2 1 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 1 2-day moving average Source: Morgan Stanley Capital International. Page 5 / July 6, 218 / Market Briefing: Global Markets

271 251 231 211 191 171 151 131 111 91 71 51 Figure 7. DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS Stock Markets: USA NASDAQ 72 64 5 4 4 32 24 1 29 27 2 23 21 19 17 1 13 11 9 7 S&P RUSSELL 185 1675 1 1325 115 975 625 45 275 34 3 2 2 1 14 WILSHIRE S&P TRANSPORTATION 825 775 725 675 625 575 525 475 425 375 325 275 225 175 125 14 1 NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE S&P UTILITIES 3 25 2 15 1 4 5 2-day moving average Source: Reuters America, Inc and Standard and Poor s Corporation. Page 6 / July 6, 218 / Market Briefing: Global Markets

Stock Markets: Americas 3 2 Figure 8. UNITED STATES MSCI (all indexes in US dollars) ARGENTINA MSCI 4 1 3 2 23 21 19 17 1 13 11 9 7 CANADA MSCI CHILE MSCI 3 MEXICO MSCI PERU MSCI 4 2-day moving average Source: BRAZIL Morgan MSCI Stanley Capital International and Haver Analytics. 4 3 2-day moving average Source: Reuters America, Inc and Standard and Poor s Corporation. Page 7 / July 6, 218 / Market Briefing: Global Markets

2 24 22 1 1 14 12 Figure 9. EUROPE MSCI (all indexes in US dollars) Stock Markets: Europe IRELAND MSCI 7 4 3 2 1 2 FRANCE MSCI ITALY MSCI 9 7 1 3 1 2 2 24 22 1 1 14 12 4 GERMANY MSCI NETHERLANDS MSCI 4 3 1 GREECE MSCI SPAIN MSCI 4 2 2-day moving average. Source: Morgan Stanley Capital International and Haver Analytics. Page 8 / July 6, 218 / Market Briefing: Global Markets

Figure 1. SWEDEN MSCI (all indexes in US dollars) Stock Markets: Europe 4 4 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 SWITZERLAND MSCI 4 4 3 3 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 UNITED KINGDOM MSCI STOCK PRICE INDEX 1 1 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 2-day moving average. Source: Morgan Stanley Capital International and Haver Analytics. Page 9 / July 6, 218 / Market Briefing: Global Markets

14 12 Figure 11. AUSTRALIA MSCI STOCK PRICE INDEX (all indexes in US dollars) Stock Markets: Asia CHINA MSCI 12 1 8 6 4 4 2 2 4 3 JAPAN MSCI HONG KONG MSCI 14 1 4 SOUTH KOREA MSCI TAIWAN MSCI 4 4 3 2 2 1 SINGAPORE MSCI 7 4 3 2 2-day moving average Source: Morgan Stanley Capital International and Haver Analytics. 1 Page 1 / July 6, 218 / Market Briefing: Global Markets

Stock Markets: Asia 12 Figure 12. INDONESIA MSCI (US$) THE PHILIPPINES MSCI 7 4 3 4 2 2 1 MALAYSIA MSCI INDIA MSCI 4 4 3 2 2 1 THAILAND MSCI PAKISTAN MSCI 25 4 2 15 3 2 1 1 5 2-day moving average Source: Morgan Stanley Capital International and Haver Analytics. Page 11 / July 6, 218 / Market Briefing: Global Markets

1 Stock Markets: Eastern Europe, Middle East, Africa Figure 13. RUSSIA MSCI (US$) ISRAEL MSCI 4 3 2 1 POLAND MSCI TURKEY MSCI 9 1 7 3 1 1 HUNGARY MSCI EGYPT MSCI 1 1 11 9 CZECH REPUBLIC MSCI SOUTH AFRICA MSCI 7 7 4 3 4 3 2 2 1 2-day moving average Source: Morgan Stanley Capital International and Haver Analytics. Page 12 / July 6, 218 / Market Briefing: Global Markets

1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1..9.8 2.3 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.1 4.5 5.5 6.5 7.5 8.5 9.5 1.5 11.5.6.8 Figure 14. EUROPE ($/Euro) 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 UNITED KINGDOM ($/Pound) 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 SWEDEN (Krona/$) 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 SWITZERLAND (Swiss Franc/$) US$ Forex Rates: Europe 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1..9.8 2.3 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.1 4.5 5.5 6.5 7.5 8.5 9.5 1.5 11.5.6.8 1. 1. 1.2 1.2 1.4 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 2-day moving average Source: Haver Analytics. 1.4 Page 13 / July 6, 218 / Market Briefing: Global Markets

US$ Forex Rates: Asia 6 8 1 12 Figure 15. JAPAN (Yen/$) CHINA (Yuan/$) 6/29 5.6 6. 6.4 6.8 7.2 7.6 8. 14 8.4.6.8 AUSTRALIA (inverted scale, A$/US$) MALAYSIA (Ringgit/$) 2.5 3. 1. 1.2 1.4 6/29 3.5 4. 1.6 4.5 1.8 5. SOUTH KOREA (Won/$) INDONESIA (Rupiah/$) 12 6/29 1 14 14 1 1 25 35 INDIA (Rupee/$, inverted scale) THAILAND (Baht/$) 25 3 45 55 35 65 75 4 45 2-day moving average Source: Haver Analytics. Page 14 / July 6, 218 / Market Briefing: Global Markets

.8.9 1. 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 Figure 16. CANADA (C$/US$) US$ Forex Rates: Americas MEXICO (Peso/$) 6/29 6 8 1 12 14 16 18 2 22.1.6 1.1 1.6 2.1 2.6 3.1 3.6 4.1 4.6 BRAZIL (Real/$) ARGENTINA (Peso/$) -1-5 5 1 15 2 25 3 3 35 4 45 55 65 7 75 CHILE (Peso/$) VENEZUELA (Bolivar Fuerte/$) 4 3 3 2 1 12 1 24 2 COLOMBIA (Peso/$) PERU (New Sol/$) 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 3. 3.2 3.4 32 3 3.6 3.8 2-day moving average Source: Morgan Stanley Capital International. Page 15 / July 6, 218 / Market Briefing: Global Markets

Trade-Weighted Dollar 135 13 Figure 17. JP MORGAN TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR INDEX (=1, daily) 135 13 125 125 12 115 Trade-Weighted Dollar (119.1) 12 115 11 11 15 15 1 1 95 95 9 9 85 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 Source: JP Morgan. 85 16 155 15 145 14 135 13 125 12 115 11 15 1 95 9 85 8 75 7 65 6 Figure 18. FED S TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR INDEXES (daily) Major* (3/73=1) Broad** (1/97=1) 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 6/29 6/29 16 155 15 145 14 135 13 125 12 115 11 15 1 95 9 85 8 75 7 65 6 * Major index is a weighted average of the foreign exchange rates of the US dollar against the Euro Area, Australia, Canada, Japan, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom, ** Broad index is a weighted average of the foreign exchange rates of the US dollar against the Euro Area, Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Ireland, Israel, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, Philippines, Russia, Singapore, Spain, Saudi Arabia, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, United Kingdom, and Venezuela. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Page 16 / July 6, 218 / Market Briefing: Global Markets

6. 5.5 5. 4.5 4. 3.5 3. 2.5 2. 1.5 1. 5.5 4.5 3.5 Figure 19. UNITED STATES CANADA 1-Year Government Yields GERMANY SWEDEN 6. 5.5 5. 4.5 4. 3.5 3. 2.5 2. 1.5 1..5. -.5 5. 4.5 4. 3.5 3. 2.5 2.5 1.5 2. 1.5 1..5..5 -.5 6.5 6. UNITED KINGDOM JAPAN 2.5 5.5 2. 5. 4.5 1.5 4. 3.5 1. 3. 2.5.5 2. 1.5 1..5. -.5 2 day moving average Source: MMS International and Haver Analytics. Page 17 / July 6, 218 / Market Briefing: Global Markets

525 475 Figure 2. CRB FUTURES PRICE INDEX (1967=1) Commodity Indexes 525 475 425 425 375 375 325 325 275 275 225 225 175 175 125 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 2-day moving average Source: Haver Analytics. 125 115 15 Figure 21. CRB RAW INDUSTRIALS SPOT PRICE INDEXES (1967=1) 115 15 95 85 95 85 75 65 55 45 CRB Raw Industrials Spot Price Index (51.8) Metals Component* (911.9) 75 65 55 45 35 35 25 15 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 25 15 * Includes scrap copper, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, and zinc. Source: Haver Analytics. Page 18 / July 6, 218 / Market Briefing: Global Markets

19 17 15 13 11 9 7 5 3 1 Figure 22. WEST TEXAS INTERMEDIATE CRUDE OIL PRICE (dollars per barrel) Commodity Prices: Energy HEATING OIL FUTURES PRICE* (dollar per gallon) 5. 4.6 4.2 3.8 3.4 3. 2.6 2.2 1.8 1.4 1..6 16 14 BRENT CRUDE OIL FUTURES PRICE* (dollars per barrel) NATURAL GAS FUTURES PRICE* (dollar per MMBTU) 19 17 15 12 13 1 8 6 4 2 4.5 3.9 * Nearby futures price. GASOLINE FUTURES PRICE* (dollars per gallon) 11 9 7 5 3 1 3.3 2.7 2.1 1.5.9.3 2-day moving average * Nearby contract. Source: Haver Analytics. Page 19 / July 6, 218 / Market Briefing: Global Markets

1975 1 1625 145 1275 11 925 75 575 4 52 48 44 4 36 32 28 24 2 16 12 8 4 2 24 22 1 1 14 12 Figure 23. GOLD FUTURES PRICE* (dollars per troy ounce) 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 SILVER FUTURES PRICE* (dollars per troy ounce) 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 PLATINUM FUTURES PRICE* (dollars per troy ounce) Commodity Prices: Precious Metals 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 1975 1 1625 145 1275 11 925 75 575 4 52 48 44 4 36 32 28 24 2 16 12 8 4 2 24 22 1 1 14 12 12 PALLADIUM SPOT PRICE ($/troy oz) 7/3 12 4 4 2 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 2-day moving average * Nearby contract. Source: Haver Analytics. 2 Page 2 / July 6, 218 / Market Briefing: Global Markets

85 75 65 55 45 Figure 24. CORN FUTURES PRICE* (cents per bushel) Commodity Prices: Agriculture 85 75 65 55 45 35 25 15 195 175 155 135 115 95 75 55 35 14 13 12 11 9 7 4 3 2 25 2 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 SOYBEANS FUTURES PRICE* (cents per bushel) 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 WHEAT FUTURES PRICE* (cents per bushel) 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 COTTON FUTURES PRICE* ($/pound) 35 25 15 195 175 155 135 115 95 75 55 35 14 13 12 11 9 7 4 3 2 25 2 15 15 1 5 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 2-day moving average * Nearby contract, closing price. Source: Haver Analytics. 1 5 Page 21 / July 6, 218 / Market Briefing: Global Markets

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