SEPTEMBER 7, 218 ECONOMIC NEWS Employment Stumbles in and Falls in in August HIGHLIGHTS ff posted a loss of 8,1 jobs in August, following growth of 95,5 jobs during the two previous months. It was part-time work that bore the full brunt of these losses. #1 BEST OVERALL FORECASTER - CANADA GRAPH In August, s labour market moved away from the monthly averages etablished over the last 3, 6 and Monthly averages In number 2, ff s unemployment rate went from % in July to %, reaching May s level. The employment and participation rates were down by.7 and.6 percentage points respectively. ff Employment barely changed in, with a drop of 2,3 positions in August. Part-time job losses (-18,8) more than offset the gains in full-time employment (+16,5). ff The unemployment rate remained stable at %, the same level seen in March of this year. -2, -4, -6, -8, -1, August Last 3 months Last 6 months Last Source: Desjardins, Economic Studies to the positive economic signals that have been observed for more than a year. COMMENTS s drop in employment was similar in nature to the growth observed in and July: quick and substantial. It is almost as if we were seeing the pendulum swing back. The pullbacks were sharpest in professional, scientific and technical services (-23,), wholesale and retail trade (-14,1) and information, culture and recreation (-11,6). Employment was fairly flat in. The advances were in information, culture and recreation (+11,6), healthcare and social assistance (+5,) and manufacturing (+4,2). The losses were mainly incurred in wholesale and retail trade (-14,2). In August, s labour market moved away from the monthly averages established over the last 3, 6 and (graph). saw lower than average losses over the last three months, but higher than the average for the last six months. This anemic trend in employment that has persisted since the start of 218, particularly in, stands in contrast IMPLICATIONS The data for August are disappointing. However, according to the Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB) Business Barometer, hiring intentions are positive, particularly in, despite the climate of uncertainty arising from NAFTA negotiations. The scarcity of candidates could also have a negative effect on hiring. Despite this sword of Damocles, the and economies are robust and hiring could pick up in the coming months. Joëlle Noreau, Senior Economist François Dupuis, Vice-President and Chief Economist Hélène Bégin, Senior Economist Benoit P. Durocher, Senior Economist Francis Généreux, Senior Economist Joëlle Noreau, Senior Economist Desjardins, Economic Studies: 418-835-245 or 1 866-835-8444, ext. 556245 desjardins.economics@desjardins.com desjardins.com/economics NOTE TO READERS: The letters k, M and B are used in texts and tables to refer to thousands, millions and billions respectively. IMPORTANT: This document is based on public information and may under no circumstances be used or construed as a commitment by Desjardins Group. While the information provided has been determined on the basis of data obtained from sources that are deemed to be reliable, Desjardins Group in no way warrants that the information is accurate or complete. The document is provided solely for information purposes and does not constitute an offer or solicitation for purchase or sale. Desjardins Group takes no responsibility for the consequences of any decision whatsoever made on the basis of the data contained herein and does not hereby undertake to provide any advice, notably in the area of investment services. The data on prices or margins are provided for information purposes and may be modified at any time, based on such factors as market conditions. The past performances and projections expressed herein are no guarantee of future performance. The opinions and forecasts contained herein are, unless otherwise indicated, those of the document s authors and do not represent the opinions of any other person or the official position of Desjardins Group. Copyright 218, Desjardins Group. All rights reserved.
Reference Tables of Labour Market TABLE 1 Variation by sector August 218 Business services Other services Accommodation and food services Transportation and warehousing 1,4 7,8 7,2 5,9 25,8 45,4 23,7 34, Prof., scientific and technical services Wholesale and retail trade Construction Manufacturing -22,1-19,6-16,4-9,2-13,6-51,3 13,8-25,4 Information, culture and recreation Health care and social assistance Manufacturing Transportation and warehousing 11,6 5, 4,2 3,7 6,6 3,4-3,5 5,5 Wholesale and retail trade Prof., scientific and technical services Agriculture Business services -14,2-6,1-4,3-3,8-24,8-19, -4,1 19,3 3,7 3,4 1,2 3 29, 2,6 13, -1,1 Prof., scientific and technical services Wholesale and retail trade Information, culture and recreation Construction -23, -14,1-11,6-8,8-8,9-8,4-1,9 5,4 GAINING SECTORS Other services Business services Utilities Agriculture LOSING SECTORS Source: Statistics 's "Labour Force Survey" TABLE 2 By sector NUMBER OF JOBS August 218 3 months Dec. 217 (%) 18,63,5 4,253,3 7,224,9-51,6-2,3-8,1 34,3-17,2 15,4-14,6-3,6 1,1 171,7 19,9 78,6.9.5 1.1 Public sector employees 3,81,4 936,7 1,396, -38, -5,5-39, 23,4-2,6 32,7 51,4-15,9 57,7 11,5-9, 8, 2.7-1. Private sector employees 11,947,4 2,74,3 4,74,9-3,7-18,8-59,6-27,5-33,5-32,9-73,6-21,5-55,3 44,1 19,8-4,9.4.7 -.1 2,872,8 576,2 1,124, 17,2 21,9 18,4 38,5 18,7 15,7 7,7 6,7-1,3 26,2 9, 3,6.9 1.6.3 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA Self-employed Source: Statistics 's "Labour Force Survey" SEPTEMBER 7, 218 2
TABLE 3 Recent trends SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA EMPLOYMENT LABOUR FORCE RATE (%) Numbers 3 months Numbers * Part. Empl. Unempl. Aug. 217 Sept. 217 Oct. 217 Nov. 217 Dec. 217 Jan. 218 Feb. 218 March 218 April 218 May 218 218 July 218 Aug. 218 18,458,8 18,471,4 18,499,1 18,58,3 18,645,1 18,557,1 18,572,5 18,64,8 18,63,7 18,596,2 18,628, 18,682,1 18,63,5 22,6 12,6 27,7 81,2 64,8-88, 15,4 32,3-1,1-7,5 31,8 54,1-51,6 1,8 58,3 62,9 121,5 173,7 58, -7,8-4,3 46,6 23,7 23,2 78,4 34,3 377,7 323,7 315,6 394,8 427,3 288,7 282,5 296,2 278,3 238,2 214,9 245,9 171,7 19,672,5 19,689,3 19,72,3 19,748,3 19,784,2 19,71,5 19,716,8 19,746,9 19,758,7 19,747,8 19,823,4 19,842,5 19,825,7 2,3 16,8 31, 28, 35,9-73,7 6,3 3,1 11,8-1,9 75,6 19,1-16,8 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 65.3 6 6 65.3 61.9 62. 61.7 61.7 61.7 61.5 61.5 Aug. 217 Sept. 217 Oct. 217 Nov. 217 Dec. 217 Jan. 218 Feb. 218 March 218 April 218 May 218 218 July 218 Aug. 218 4,233,4 4,228,9 4,247,7 4,263,5 4,283,9 4,266,5 4,263,6 4,279,6 4,265,8 4,27,5 4,264, 4,255,6 4,253,3-5,8-4,5 18,8 15,8 2,4-17,4-2,9 16, -13,8 4,7-6,5-8,4-2,3 28,2-8,6 8,5 3,1 55, 18,8 1-4,3-7 6,9-15,6-1,2-17,2 9,6 53,2 69,4 82,2 94,1 7,5 73,8 85, 72,8 65,3 26,5 16,4 19,9 4,54,3 4,497,8 4,518, 4,57,8 4,51,1 4,58,6 4,517,5 4,531,1 4,58,3 4,51,9 4,57,2 4,55,7 4,54,5 6, -6,5 2,2-1,2 2,3-1,5 8,9 13,6-22,8 2,6-3,7-1,5-1,2 65. 65.1 64.7 64.7 64.6 64.5 61. 6.9 61.1 61.1 6.9 6.8 5. 5.3 Aug. 217 Sept. 217 Oct. 217 Nov. 217 Dec. 217 Jan. 218 Feb. 218 March 218 April 218 May 218 218 July 218 Aug. 218 7,146,3 7,178,2 7,18,7 7,217,7 7,223,8 7,172,9 7,188,6 7,199,2 7,28,5 7,29,5 7,244,4 7,35, 7,224,9 23,9 31,9 2,5 37, 6,1-5,9 15,7 1,6 9,3 1, 34,9 6,6-8,1 62,5 9,6 58,3 71,4 45,6-7,8-29,1-24,6 35,6 2,9 45,2 96,5 15,4 159,6 174,7 154,3 182,8 179,8 14,3 113,7 129,6 133,4 125,7 156,8 182,6 78,6 7,565,6 7,69,8 7,625,3 7,638,6 7,648,3 7,593,5 7,63,1 7,619,2 7,632,5 7,646,4 7,72,6 7,72,9 7,663,2-13,7 44,2 15,5 13,3 9,7-54,8 9,6 16,1 13,3 13,9 56,2 18,3-57,7 64.6 65. 65. 64.2 61. 6.8 6.9 6.9 6.8 6.7 6.9 6.6 Part.: Participation; Empl.: Employment; Unempl.: Unemployment; * Variation over a month. Source: Statistics 's "Labour Force Survey" SEPTEMBER 7, 218 3
TABLE 4 Other labour market indicators LAST PUBLICATION PREVIOUS DATA Month Level - -3 months -6 months - Average weekly wages ($) Average hours worked in the manufacturing sector 1,93.34 3.2 1,1.38 3.3 1,95.37 3.5 1,14.73 3.3 1,83.87 3.1 Average weekly wages ($) Average hours worked in the manufacturing sector 1,11.83 29.8 1,44.24 3. 1,38.72 3.2 1,13.69 3.2 1,29.41 3.2 Average weekly wages ($) Average hours worked in the manufacturing sector 1,12.74 3.4 1,118.15 3.4 1,11.15 3.6 1,131.62 3.2 1,1.4 29.9 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA Source: Statistics 's "Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours" TABLE 5 Annual data ANNUAL AVERAGES 212 213 214 215 216 217 Job growth (%) Unemployment rate (%) 17,438, 217, 1.3 7.3 17,691,1 253,1 1.5 7.1 17,82,2 111,1.6 6.9 17,946,6 144,4.8 6.9 18,79,9 133,3.7 7. 18,416,4 336,5 1.9 6.3 Job growth (%) Unemployment rate (%) 4,5,9 3,3.8 7.7 4,6,8 54,9 1.4 4,59,7-1,1. 7.7 4,97, 37,3.9 4,133,1 36,1.9 7.1 4,223,3 9,2 2.2 Job growth (%) Unemployment rate (%) 6,72,6 44,2.7 7.9 6,823,4 12,8 1.8 6,877,9 54,5.8 7.3 6,923,2 45,3.7 6.8 6,999,6 76,4 1.1 7,128, 128,4 1.8 Source: Statistics 's "Labour Force Survey" SEPTEMBER 7, 218 4
QUEBEC ONTARIO CANADA QUEBEC ONTARIO Level of employment Participation Rate In % 68 4,25 7,25 4,15 7,1 4,5 6,95 3,95 6,8 3,85 6,65 3,75 6,5 3,65 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 6,35 (left) 67 66 65 64 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 (right) Sources: Statistics and Desjardins, Economic Studies Sources: Statistics and Desjardins, Economic Studies CANADA QUEBEC ONTARIO CANADA QUEBEC ONTARIO Employment Rate Unemployment Rate In % In % 64 1 63 9 62 8 61 7 6 6 59 5 58 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 4 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 Sources: Statistics and Desjardins, Economic Studies Sources: Statistics and Desjardins, Economic Studies CANADA QUEBEC ONTARIO UNITED STATES CANADA Employment Index Evolution of employment February 21 = 1 13 15 125 1 12 115 5 11 15 1 95 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 United States -5-1 212 213 214 215 Sources: Statistics and Desjardins, Economic Studies Sources: Statistics and Desjardins, Economic Studies QUEBEC ONTARIO Evolution of employment Evolution of employment 4 8 3 6 2 4 217 218 216 217 218 2 1-2 -1-4 -2-6 -3-4 216-8 212 213 214 215 Sources: Statistics and Desjardins, Economic Studies 216 217 218-1 212 213 214 215 Sources: Statistics and Desjardins, Economic Studies SEPTEMBER 7, 218 5
TABLE 6 By province August 218 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA Newfoundland Prince Edward Island Nova Scotia New Brunswick Manitoba Saskatchewan Alberta British Columbia PREVIOUS MONTHS ACTUAL MONTHLY AVERAGES EMPLOYMENT July 218 218 May 218 3 months 6 months Since 1 year 18,63,5 18,682,1 18,628, 18,596,2 18,646,867 18,624,217 18,589,233 18,458,8-51,6 54,1 31,8-7,5 11,433 9,667 14,38 171,7.9* 226,3 225,2 222,8 223,4 224,767 224,17 224,1 22,3 1,1 14.4 2,4 1-6 1 5 14.5 967 15.1 4 14.8 5 14.6 6, 2.7* 76,2 76,5 76,2 75,8 76,3 75,817 75, 74, -3 9.3 3 9.5 4 8.9 8 9.3 133 9.2 133 9.8 183 9.9 2,2 3.* 454,6 453,4 452,4 454,1 453,467 454,533 453,75 445,4 1,2 8.4 1, 8. -1,7 7.9-3,6 7.2 167 8.1-283 767 8. 9,2 2.1* 353, 354,1 355,8 356,9 354,3 354,817 354,392 351,9-1,1 8.3-1,7 7.5-1,1 7.5 1,8 7.3-1,3 7.8-467 7.8 92 8. 1,1.3* 4,253,3 4,255,6 4,264, 4,27,5 4,257,633 4,264,8 4,261,98 4,233,4-2,3-8,4-6,5 4,7 5.3-5,733-1,717 1,658 19,9.5* 7,224,9 7,35, 7,244,4 7,29,5 7,258,1 7,231,917 7,212,783 7,146,3-8,1 6,6 34,9 1, 5,133 6,5 6,55 78,6 1.1* 649,2 646,6 65,2 646,1 648,667 647,67 645,867 649,2 2,6-3,6 4,1-1,1 1,33 1,167 -.* 569,2 567,8 572, 563,7 569,667 568,2 567,442 568, 1,4 6.7-4,2 6.6 8,3 6.3-2,1 6.8 1,833 45 6.4 1 1,2.2* 2,34,8 2,324,6 2,328,2 2,326,2 2,331,2 2,328,33 2,316,267 2,287,6 16,2 6.7-3,6 6.7 2, 2,9 4,867 6.6 4, 4,433 6.9 53,2 2.3* 2,483,1 2,473,2 2,462, 2,47, 2,472,767 2,475,33 2,478,442 2,482,6 9,9 5.3 11,2 5. -8, 5.2-12,4 4.8 4,367 5.2-5 5. 42 4.9 5.* Unempl.: Unemployement; * Variation in employment over a year. Source: Statistics 's "Labour Force Survey" SEPTEMBER 7, 218 6