Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies www.gonzalesresearch.com Conducted for: Maryland State Builders Association January 2010
Methodology Patrick E. Gonzales graduated from the University of Baltimore in 1981 with a degree in political science. He began his career as an analyst with Mason-Dixon Opinion Research and is the former president of Mason- Dixon Campaign Polling. Mr. Gonzales has polled and analyzed hundreds of elections in Maryland since the mid 1980 s. Additionally, he and his associates have conducted numerous market research projects and crafted message development programs for businesses and organizations throughout the state. Laslo V. Boyd is a partner of. Dr. Boyd received his Ph.D. from the University of Pennsylvania and has over 30 years of experience in higher education, government, and public policy. Hilary Duff Gonzales is Director of Sales and Marketing for Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies. Mrs. Gonzales has over 20 years experience promoting the state of Maryland, particularly in the tour and travel industry. This survey was conducted by from January 13 th through January 17 th, 2010. A total of 816 registered voters in Maryland who are likely to vote in the 2010 general election were interviewed by telephone. A cross-section of interviews was conducted in each jurisdiction within the state to reflect general election voting patterns. The margin of error (MOE), according to customary statistical standards, is no more than plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. There is a 95 percent probability that the true figures would fall within this range if the entire survey universe were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any demographic subgroup, such as gender or race. 2
Maryland Statewide Poll Sample Demographics Gender Race Region Male 406 (50%) White 599 (73%) Eastern Shore/S Md 111 (13%) Female 410 (50%) Black 196 (24%) Baltimore City 70 (9%) Other/Ref 21 Baltimore 301 (37%) Washington Subs 236 (29%) Western Maryland 98 (12%) Party Registration Democrat 457 (56%) Republican 260 (32%) Independent 99 (12%) Regional Groupings are as follows: Eastern Shore/ Southern Md Baltimore City Baltimore Washington Western Maryland Calvert Co. Baltimore City Anne Arundel Co. Montgomery Co. Allegany Co. Caroline Co. Baltimore Co. Prince George s Co. Carroll Co. Cecil Co. Harford Co. Frederick Co. Charles Co. Howard Co. Garrett Co. Dorchester Co. Washington Co. Kent Co. Queen Anne s Co. Somerset Co. St. Mary s Co. Talbot Co. Wicomico Co. Worcester Co. 3
Summary We asked Maryland voters what they though should be the higher priority for Governor Martin O Malley s administration right now, Taking steps to create jobs and improve Maryland s economy, or Taking steps to reduce pollution in the Chesapeake Bay? Statewide, 77% think the higher priority should be taking steps to create jobs and improve Maryland s economy, while 15% think the higher priority should be taking steps to reduce pollution in the Chesapeake Bay. The results by party and race: Create jobs Reduce pollution answer Democrat 84% 11% 5% Republican 68% 18% 14% Independent 69% 25% 6% White 73% 19% 8% African-American 89% 2% 9% When asked what they thought has the most negative impact on the Chesapeake Bay, 47% say runoff from agricultural fertilizers, 18% say runoff from home lawn treatments, 15% say commercial construction, 5% say home construction, 3% say recreational and commercial boat use, and 12% offered no response. Majorities in every demographic subgroup of the survey think runoff from agricultural fertilizers and home lawn treatments have the most negative impact on the health of the Chesapeake Bay 4
We read voters the following question, On average, Maryland households pay $178 per year for Chesapeake Bay cleanup and restoration. Proposed regulations through additional taxes and fees would add additional costs per household per year. Do you think these new regulations should be enacted today, or should we wait until economic conditions are better? Statewide, 31% say the new regulations should be enacted today, while 55% say we should wait until economic conditions are better to enact the new regulations. Fifty-three percent of Democrats, 57% of Republicans, and 59% of independents think we should wait until economic conditions are better to enact the new regulations. The results by the regions of the state: Proposed Regulations for Bay Cleanup 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 36 48 61 53 32 29 31 ES/So Md Balt City Balt Subs 59 Wash Subs 25 52 West Md Enact Wait 5
Among Maryland voters, 34% say they would be willing to pay up to $100 per year in additional taxes and fees for Chesapeake Bay cleanup and restoration, 6% say they d be willing to pay up to $250 per year in additional taxes and fees, 3% say up to $500 per year, and 46% say they are not willing to pay any additional amount at this time. The results by party: additional amount $100 $250 $500 Democrat 39% 40% 4% 5% Republican 55% 26% 9% 1% Independent 54% 27% 7% 1% A majority of Republicans and independents are unwilling to pay any additional taxes at this time Finally, we asked Marylanders the following, Environmental Protection Agency research indicates that fertilizer application and chemical lawn treatments on residential properties are significant sources of pollution flowing into the Chesapeake Bay. In light of this evidence, would you favor or oppose a five dollar per application tax on these services to assist in Bay cleanup and restoration? Statewide, 61% say they favor a five dollar per application tax on fertilizer application and chemical lawn treatments on residential properties to assist in Bay cleanup and restoration, 29% are opposed, and 10% offered no answer. In response to this question, a majority of voters in every demographic sub-group said they favor a five dollar per application tax on fertilizer application and chemical lawn treatments on residential properties to assist in Bay cleanup and restoration. 6
QUESTION: Which do you think should be a higher priority for Governor Martin O Malley s administration right now? (ORDER ROTATED) Taking steps to create jobs and improve Maryland s economy, or Taking steps to reduce pollution in the Chesapeake Bay Statewide Results Response Statewide Create jobs 77% Reduce pollution 15% answer 8% Party Higher priority for the O Malley administration? Party Create Jobs Reduce Pollution Democrat 84% 11% 5% Republican 68% 18% 14% Independent 69% 25% 6% Race - Higher priority for the O Malley administration? Race Create Jobs Reduce Pollution White 73% 19% 8% African- American 89% 2% 9% 7
Gender - Higher priority for the O Malley administration? Gender Create Jobs Reduce Pollution Men 73% 17% 10% Women 81% 13% 6% Region Region - Higher priority for the O Malley administration? Create Jobs Reduce Pollution Eastern Shore/ Southern MD 71% 19% 10% Baltimore City 79% 14% 7% Baltimore 77% 16% 7% Washington 80% 12% 8% Western Maryland 74% 15% 11% 8
QUESTION: Among the following, which one do you think has the most negative impact on the Chesapeake Bay? (ORDER ROTATED) Runoff from agricultural fertilizers Runoff from home lawn treatments Home construction Commercial construction Recreational and commercial boat use Statewide Results Response Statewide Agriculture fertilizers 47% Home lawn treatments 18% Commercial construction 15% Home construction 5% Boat use 3% answer 12% Party Most negative impact on the Chesapeake Bay? Party Agricult Fertilizer Lawn Treatment Commer Construct Home Construct Boat Use Democrat 46% 14% 20% 6% 3% 11% Republican 49% 24% 6% 2% 3% 16% Independent 47% 19% 16% 7% 4% 7% 9
Race - Most negative impact on the Chesapeake Bay? Race Agricult Fertilizer Lawn Treatment Commer Construct Home Construct Boat Use White 49% 20% 13% 5% 3% 10% African- American 41% 12% 21% 6% 3% 17% Gender - Most negative impact on the Chesapeake Bay? Gender Agricult Fertilizer Lawn Treatment Commer Construct Home Construct Boat Use Men 51% 16% 11% 6% 2% 14% Women 43% 20% 19% 4% 4% 10% Region Region - Most negative impact on the Chesapeake Bay? Agricult Fertilizer Lawn Treatment Commer Construct Home Construct Boat Use Eastern Sh/ South MD 48% 22% 10% 6% 1% 13% Baltimore City 50% 15% 20% 3% - 12% Baltimore 49% 18% 17% 5% 6% 5% Washington 45% 16% 14% 4% 2% 19% Western Maryland 41% 23% 12% 8% 1% 15% 10
QUESTION: On average, Maryland households pay $178 per year for Chesapeake Bay cleanup and restoration. Proposed regulations through additional taxes and fees would add additional costs per household per year. Do you think these new regulations should be enacted today, or should we wait until economic conditions are better? Statewide Results Response Statewide Enact today 31% Wait 55% answer 14% Party New regulations should be enacted today, or should we wait? Party Enact Today Wait Democrat 35% 53% 12% Republican 24% 57% 19% Independent 30% 59% 11% Race - New regulations should be enacted today, or should we wait? Race Enact Today Wait White 37% 50% 13% African- American 13% 70% 17% 11
Gender - New regulations should be enacted today, or should we wait? Gender Enact Today Wait Men 30% 52% 18% Women 32% 58% 10% Region Region - New regulations should be enacted today, or should we wait? Enact Today Wait Eastern Shore/ Southern MD 42% 48% 10% Baltimore City 32% 61% 7% Baltimore 29% 53% 18% Washington 31% 59% 10% Western Maryland 25% 52% 23% 12
QUESTION: How much additional funding would you be willing to pay per year in additional taxes and fees for Chesapeake Bay cleanup and restoration? additional amount at this time 100 dollars per year 250 dollars per year 500 dollars per year Statewide Results Response Statewide additional amount 46% $100 34% $250 6% $500 3% answer 11% Party How much additional funding would you be willing to pay per year in additional taxes and fees for Chesapeake Bay cleanup and restoration? Party ne $100 $250 $500 Democrat 39% 40% 4% 5% 12% Republican 55% 26% 9% 1% 9% Independent 54% 27% 7% 1% 11% 13
Race - How much additional funding would you be willing to pay per year in additional taxes and fees for Chesapeake Bay cleanup and restoration? Race ne $100 $250 $500 White 40% 37% 7% 4% 12% African- American 64% 25% 3% 0% 8% Gender - How much additional funding would you be willing to pay per year in additional taxes and fees for Chesapeake Bay cleanup and restoration? Gender ne $100 $250 $500 Men 51% 28% 7% 2% 12% Women 41% 40% 5% 4% 10% Region - How much additional funding would you be willing to pay per year in additional taxes and fees for Chesapeake Bay cleanup and restoration? Region ne $100 $250 $500 Eastern Shore/ Southern MD 44% 35% 8% 2% 11% Baltimore City 53% 31% 6% 1% 9% Baltimore 46% 34% 4% 3% 13% Washington 41% 38% 7% 5% 8% Western Maryland 56% 23% 7% 1% 13% 14
QUESTION: Environmental Protection Agency research indicates that fertilizer application and chemical lawn treatments on residential properties are significant sources of pollution flowing into the Chesapeake Bay. In light of this evidence, would you favor or oppose a five dollar per application tax on these services to assist in Bay cleanup and restoration? Statewide Results Response Statewide Favor 61% Oppose 29% answer 10% Party Favor or oppose a five dollar per application tax on these services to assist in Bay cleanup and restoration? Party Favor Oppose Democrat 65% 23% 12% Republican 53% 39% 8% Independent 64% 29% 7% Race - Favor or oppose a five dollar per application tax on these services to assist in Bay cleanup and restoration? Race Favor Oppose White 63% 28% 9% African- American 55% 32% 13% 15
Gender - Favor or oppose a five dollar per application tax on these services to assist in Bay cleanup and restoration? Gender Favor Oppose Men 53% 36% 11% Women 69% 22% 9% Region - Favor or oppose a five dollar per application tax on these services to assist in Bay cleanup and restoration? Region Favor Oppose Eastern Shore/ Southern MD 63% 22% 15% Baltimore City 59% 33% 8% Baltimore 61% 30% 9% Washington 62% 27% 11% Western Maryland 58% 35% 7% 16