CONSUMER SURVEY August The Bank Indonesia Consumer Survey revealed that respondents were remained optimistic on economic conditions in August though less upbeat. The Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) recorded at 121.9, despite dropping 1.5 points from 123.4. The Survey also showed that respondents were primarily upbeat on job availability in the next six months. In contrast, however, respondents perceived a decline in current incomes as well as conditions for buying durable goods, as the main drag on the CCI. Congruent with the lower income index, the average propensity to consume ratio for households fell 0.2% to 63.8%, while the debt service to income ratio dropped 0.3% to 15.1%. In contrast, the savings to income ratio bucked the downward trend to post a 0.5% gain, rising to 21.1%. Less consumption was accompanied by a greater inclination to save, representing an intertemporal adjustment in the pattern of public consumption. Consumers predicted inflationary pressures to accelerate in the next three and six months and then to ease in the next 12 months. A. Consumer Confidence Respondents remained optimistics but less upbeat in August. A1. Consumer Confidence Index The Bank Indonesia Consumer Survey revealed that consumers were less upbeat on economic conditions in August but remained optimistic (index > 100) with a persistently high CCI recorded at 121.9, despite dropping 1.5 points from 123.4 (Graph 1) the month earlier. Respondents were primarily upbeat on the job availability index in the next six months. In contrast, respondents perceived a decline in current incomes as well as conditions for buying durable goods, as the main drag on the CCI. The flagging CCI in August affected nearly all respondent groups, particularly those spending Rp4.1-5 million and Rp1-2 million per month as well as those aged 51-60 (Graph 2 and 3). Regionally, the deepest CCI declines were reported in Banjarmasin (-8.5 points), Mataram (-7.2 points) and Jakarta (-6.7 points). Methodology The Consumer Survey has been conducted monthly since October 1999. Moreover, since January 2007 the Survey has involved 4,600 households as respondents (stratified random sampling) in 18 cities, namely Jakarta, Bandung, Semarang, Surabaya, Medan, Makassar, Bandar Lampung, Palembang, Banjarmasin, Padang, Pontianak, Samarinda, Manado, Denpasar, Mataram, Pangkal Pinang, Ambon and Banten. The index of each city is calculated using the balanced score method (net balance + 100), which indicates that a score of 100 is considered optimistic and an index of below 100 is pessimistic. Real Sector Statistics Division 1
Consumer Survey Graph 1. Consumer Confidence Index Grafik 2. CCI by Spending Level Grafik 3. A2. Current Economic Condition Index Respondents perceived slightly more downbeat current economic conditions in the reporting period. Respondents perceived slightly more downbeat current economic conditions in the reporting period, reflected by a dip of 2.6 points in the Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) for August to 110.6, stemming from the current income index and conditions for buying durable goods index (Graph 4). Graph 4. Current Economic Condition Index by Components Real Sector Statistics Division 2
Consumer Survey In August, the current income index fell 5.6 points to 121.3, which is still deep in optimistic territory (index > 100). Notwithstanding, the current income index decline affected all respondent groups, particularly those with a monthly spend of Rp4.1-5 million as well as those aged 31-40 and 51-60 (Graph 5 and 6). Meanwhile, the dip of 3.7 points reported in the conditions for buying durable goods index to 110.7 affected nearly all respondent groups, most significantly those spending Rp1-2 million per month as well as those aged 51-60 and 20-30 (Graph 7 and 8). Respondents cited electronic goods and household furniture for the decline. Graph 5. CECI by Spending Level Graph 6. CE Graph 7. Buying durable goods Index by Spending Level Graph 8. Buying durable goods Index by Ages A3. Consumer Expectation Index Respondents were also less upbeat on future economic conditions. Despite ongoing optimism, respondents were slightly less upbeat on future economic conditions in August, with the Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) edged down from 133.6 to 133.2 by lower business and income expectations, contrasting the optimistic outlook for future job availability (Graph 4). In August, the job availability index tracked an upward trend, rising 2.2 points to 120.1, on the back of respondents with a tertiary education as well as those aged 20-30 (Graph 10 and 11). In addition, the recent proliferation of government infrastructure development projects further boosted optimism amongst respondents. Real Sector Statistics Division 3
Consumer Survey Graph 9. Consumer Expectation Index by Components Conversely, respondents confirmed a 3.3-point decline the business expectations index to a level of 134.9, which affected nearly all respondent groups based on spending and age. The deepest declines affected those spending Rp3.1-4 million monthly and retirees aged over 60 (Graph 12 and 13) due to escalating inflationary pressures that could subdue future business activity. The income expectations index was also observed to decline, falling 0.2 points to 144.4 on the previous period. Respondents spending Rp1-2 million and Rp2.1-3 million per month, as well as those aged 51-60, reported the deepest declines (Graph 14 and 15). Nevertheless, respondents did expect incomes/turnover to improve in the next six months, although the outlook was not as promising as conditions reported one month earlier. Graph 10. Job Availability Expectation by Graph 11. Job Availability Expectation by Real Sector Statistics Division 4
Consumer Survey Graph 12. Business Condition Expectation Graph 13. Business Condition Expectation Graph 14. Income Expectation by Spending Level Graph 15. Income Expectation by B. Consumer Financial Conditions B1. Consumer Income Respondents were less inclined to consume. Congruent with the lower income index in August, the average propensity to consume ratio for households fell 0.2% to 63.8%, while the debt service to income ratio dropped 0.3% to 15.1%. In contrast, the savings to income ratio bucked the downward trend to post a 0.5% gain, rising to 21.1% (Graph 16). Graph 16. Distribution of Household Income Allocation Real Sector Statistics Division 5
Consumer Survey Respondents spending more than Rp 3 million per month were less inclined to consume, contrasting those spending Rp1-2 million and Rp2.1-3 million per month, who were more disposed to consume. Meanwhile, a higher savings to income ratio was confirmed by all respondent groups, especially those spending Rp1-2 million and Rp2.1-3 million monthly. Graph 17. by Spending Level Graph 18. Spending Level B2. Consumption, Savings and Debt Respondents expected to spend more on consumption in the next three months. Respondents expected to spend more on consumption in November compared to conditions last period, with the 3-month household consumption index confirmed to rise from 155.7 to 156.6, primarily on food purchases. Graph 19. Consumption Expectation Index for The Next 3 Months Respondents predicted to save more in the next six months. Respondents also expected to save more in the next six months (February 2018), while rising loan repayments were predicted to slow, indicated by an increase in the 6-month savings expectation index of 2.1 points to 113.3, while the debt expectation index decreased 2.4 points to 155.8 (Graph 20). Real Sector Statistics Division 6
Consumer Survey Graph 20. Saving and Debt Expectation Index for The Next 6 Months B3. Placements of Disposable Income and House Purchases Respondents confirmed their proclivity to place disposable income in savings deposits and term deposits. Respondents confirmed their proclivity to place disposable income in savings deposits/term deposits over the upcoming 12 months. Most (52.3%) respondents reported that savings deposits and term deposits were their preferred destination for disposable income, increasing from 49.6% in the previous period. In addition to savings deposits and term deposits, 21.8% of respondents preferred to invest in property, while 14.9% placed their disposable income in gold/jewellery (Graph 21). Graph 21. Placement of Disposable Income in The Next 12 Months Respondents were less inclined to buy/build a house. In the upcoming 12 months (September August 2018), 5.4% of respondents expressed a distinct desire to buy/build a house, down on the previous period. Meanwhile, 28.3% of respondents thought that buying/building a house was a possibility and 66.3% expressed no desire to buy/build a house or were unsure (Graph 22). Real Sector Statistics Division 7
Consumer Survey Graph 22. Placement Plan on Property in The Next 12 Months C. Consumer Price Expectations Respondents expected inflationary pressures to accumulate in the next 3 months. C1. Price Expectations for the Upcoming 3 Months Respondents expected inflationary pressures to accumulate slightly in November, driven by concerns over an electricity rate hike, which triggered a 0.7-bump in the 3-month Price Expectations Index (PEI) to 165.5 (Graph 23). Regionally, an increase in the 3-month PEI was reported in nine of the cities surveyed, particularly in Manado (21.0 points) and Semarang (17.0 points). Graph 23. Price Expectation Index for the next 3 months Respondents also expected inflationary pressures to build in the next 6 months. C2. Price Expectations for the Upcoming 6 Months Respondents also expected inflationary pressures to build at the administered prices in the form of electricity rates and energy prices (fuels and LPG). In August, the 6-month PEI stood at 173.3, up 1.8 points on the previous period (Graph 24). Regionally, an increase in the 6-month PEI was Real Sector Statistics Division 8
Consumer Survey reported in nine cities, most significantly in Semarang (20.4 points) and Padang (11.0 points). Graph 24. Price Expectation Index for the next 6 months C3. Price Expectations for the Upcoming 12 Months Respondents predicted milder inflationary pressures in the next 12 months. Respondents predicted milder inflationary pressures in the next 12 months, reflecting a 12-month PEI of 175.8, up 1.8 points on the month earlier (Graph 24). Regionally, a decline in the 12-month PEI was reported in 10 cities, particularly in Pontianak (-26.0 points) and Banten (-17.5 points). Graph 25. Price Expectation Index for the next 12 months Real Sector Statistics Division 9
Table 1. Consumer Confidence Index and Prices Expectation Index Descriptions Changes Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug (Aug - Jul) A. Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) - Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) 115.3 117.1 121.5 123.7 125.9 122.4 123.4 121.9-1.5 - Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) 104.2 105.2 108.7 112.1 115.0 113.7 113.2 110.6-2.6 - Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) 126.4 129.1 134.4 135.4 136.9 131.0 133.6 133.2-0.4 Current Economic Condition Index (compared to the previous 6 months) - Current Incomes Index 118.5 118.2 120.6 124.0 124.0 127.0 126.9 121.3-5.6 - Employment Conditions Index 88.8 90.5 95.1 98.8 104.9 96.6 98.3 99.8 1.5 - Buying Durable Goods Conditions Index 105.4 106.9 110.3 113.4 116.0 117.5 114.4 110.7-3.7 Consumer Expectation Index (the next 6 months compared to the current condition) - Incomes Expectation Index 142.9 140.8 144.1 145.4 148.2 141.7 144.6 144.4-0.2 - Employment Conditions Expectation Index 111.3 117.0 123.1 122.2 124.8 116.6 117.9 120.1 2.2 - Business Activities Expectation Index 125.1 129.4 136.0 138.5 137.7 134.7 138.2 134.9-3.3 B. Price Expectations Index - Price expectations index for the next 3 months 171.8 170.8 171.7 176.5 177.0 163.9 164.8 165.5 0.7 - Price expectations index for the next 6 months 176.0 174.8 166.1 169.0 166.5 167.5 171.5 173.3 1.8 - Price expectations index for the next 12 months 174.8 176.1 174.5 178.1 176.4 176.0 177.1 175.8-1.3 Real Sector Statistics Division 10
Table 2. Consumer Confidence Index by Respondent Expenditure Level Changes Descriptions Jan Feb Mar Apr Mei Jun Jul Aug (Aug - Jul) A. Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) - Expenditure level Rp. 1-2 million 117.4 109.7 121.0 125.9 127.1 121.7 128.8 123.1-5.7 - Expenditure level Rp. 2,1-3 million 118.0 116.7 124.1 123.1 127.3 122.6 123.1 120.1-3.0 - Expenditure level Rp. 3,1-4 million 115.0 118.9 123.9 121.0 127.1 118.9 126.5 122.0-4.5 - Expenditure level Rp. 4,1-5 million 110.3 117.9 120.0 122.3 122.4 120.2 122.5 116.0-6.5 - Expenditure level > Rp. 5 million 114.2 120.0 118.3 119.0 128.4 122.9 127.6 122.2-5.4 B. Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) - Expenditure level Rp. 1-2 million 107.4 95.4 109.0 112.4 114.9 114.8 117.8 111.9-5.9 - Expenditure level Rp. 2,1-3 million 105.4 105.4 113.3 110.1 117.5 113.7 113.7 109.3-4.4 - Expenditure level Rp. 3,1-4 million 103.0 107.1 110.8 109.7 116.5 110.5 116.4 110.6-5.8 - Expenditure level Rp. 4,1-5 million 103.1 103.8 107.7 112.3 111.0 111.4 112.3 104.3-8.0 - Expenditure level > Rp. 5 million 102.7 105.0 104.3 106.9 118.3 114.8 117.9 110.7-7.2 C. Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) - Expenditure level Rp. 1-2 million 127.5 123.9 133.1 139.4 139.3 128.7 139.8 134.3-5.5 - Expenditure level Rp. 2,1-3 million 130.6 127.9 135.0 136.0 137.1 131.4 132.5 130.9-1.6 - Expenditure level Rp. 3,1-4 million 127.1 130.7 137.0 132.2 137.7 127.3 136.5 133.4-3.1 - Expenditure level Rp. 4,1-5 million 117.5 131.9 132.3 132.2 133.8 129.1 132.6 127.6-5.0 - Expenditure level > Rp. 5 million 125.7 135.0 132.3 131.2 138.5 130.9 137.2 133.6-3.6 B1. Current Income Index - Expenditure level Rp. 1-2 million 121.5 109.2 124.7 120.3 125.1 127.0 132.3 124.7-7.6 - Expenditure level Rp. 2,1-3 million 122.5 122.9 126.8 124.7 130.8 126.5 127.6 119.6-8.0 - Expenditure level Rp. 3,1-4 million 117.9 118.1 121.1 122.0 123.7 127.9 131.4 124.6-6.8 - Expenditure level Rp. 4,1-5 million 112.3 112.0 114.8 125.2 118.2 126.1 129.0 110.3-18.7 - Expenditure level > Rp. 5 million 116.6 119.8 122.0 122.4 120.5 130.2 126.5 122.9-3.6 B2. Employment Conditions Index - Expenditure level Rp. 1-2 million 92.1 80.5 99.5 100.2 105.5 101.2 100.4 102.1 1.7 - Expenditure level Rp. 2,1-3 million 88.8 87.2 97.0 94.2 105.1 94.1 99.1 97.4-1.7 - Expenditure level Rp. 3,1-4 million 89.4 92.9 99.6 98.0 106.3 88.5 99.8 97.2-2.6 - Expenditure level Rp. 4,1-5 million 79.7 95.9 98.4 100.0 100.2 97.5 97.4 97.9 0.5 - Expenditure level > Rp. 5 million 84.8 88.6 90.3 105.5 105.8 100.5 96.2 107.4 11.2 B3. Buying Durable Goods Conditions Index - Expenditure level Rp. 1-2 million 108.6 96.6 102.8 116.9 114.0 116.1 120.6 109.0-11.6 - Expenditure level Rp. 2,1-3 million 105.1 106.1 115.9 111.3 116.7 120.7 114.4 110.8-3.6 - Expenditure level Rp. 3,1-4 million 101.6 110.3 111.6 109.2 119.6 115.2 118.1 110.0-8.1 - Expenditure level Rp. 4,1-5 million 117.4 103.6 109.9 111.8 114.7 110.5 110.6 104.8-5.8 - Expenditure level > Rp. 5 million 102.3 106.6 111.9 117.6 110.7 126.2 110.8 111.9 1.1 C1. Incomes Expectation Index - Expenditure level Rp. 1-2 million 141.5 136.1 142.5 147.6 148.7 137.9 149.9 146.0-3.9 - Expenditure level Rp. 2,1-3 million 148.5 139.4 144.1 146.0 148.4 142.6 144.3 141.7-2.6 - Expenditure level Rp. 3,1-4 million 145.3 142.3 143.3 141.3 151.3 140.2 144.6 143.9-0.7 - Expenditure level Rp. 4,1-5 million 138.7 139.0 147.0 141.7 145.2 145.0 142.4 140.8-1.6 - Expenditure level > Rp. 5 million 140.8 148.2 146.9 147.9 147.5 139.3 141.7 149.1 7.4 C2. Employment Conditions Expectation Index - Expenditure level Rp. 1-2 million 109.7 110.3 123.9 124.7 126.2 116.8 125.3 118.4-6.9 - Expenditure level Rp. 2,1-3 million 111.4 112.1 123.2 120.2 125.3 117.2 114.2 117.3 3.1 - Expenditure level Rp. 3,1-4 million 110.6 120.6 127.7 122.4 123.4 111.9 120.4 123.0 2.6 - Expenditure level Rp. 4,1-5 million 97.6 127.6 120.3 121.6 121.2 110.5 120.8 114.0-6.8 - Expenditure level > Rp. 5 million 107.8 111.4 124.2 128.2 128.6 110.7 117.6 122.0 4.4 C3. Business Activities Expectation Index - Expenditure level Rp. 1-2 million 131.2 125.4 132.9 146.1 143.1 131.2 144.4 138.6-5.8 - Expenditure level Rp. 2,1-3 million 131.8 132.3 137.6 141.9 137.7 134.3 139.0 133.6-5.4 - Expenditure level Rp. 3,1-4 million 125.4 129.3 140.1 132.9 138.2 129.9 144.6 133.2-11.4 - Expenditure level Rp. 4,1-5 million 116.0 129.2 129.4 133.3 134.9 131.8 134.8 128.1-6.7 - Expenditure level > Rp. 5 million 123.3 121.7 140.4 138.8 135.8 136.0 130.1 132.0 1.9 Real Sector Statistics Division 11
Table 3. Consumer Confidence Index by Respondent Age Changes Descriptions Jan Feb Mar Apr Mei Jun Jul Aug (Aug - Jul) A. Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) - 20-30 year 124.6 128.0 129.7 131.7 134.8 128.0 129.3 127.6-1.7-31-40 year 114.4 116.3 122.4 122.3 124.8 120.3 123.6 119.9-3.7-41-50 year 111.9 112.1 117.1 117.4 115.0 117.5 117.1 118.5 1.4-51-60 year 105.2 109.3 113.1 109.2 115.3 120.4 118.7 110.3-8.4 - >60 year 99.0 96.5 102.0 103.5 104.9 105.2 110.0 107.3-2.7 B. Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) - 20-30 year 113.6 117.3 117.5 120.2 124.7 119.5 121.3 116.8-4.5-31-40 year 103.0 103.5 109.4 111.5 112.6 111.4 113.4 108.3-5.1-41-50 year 99.6 98.7 103.7 104.8 103.3 107.7 104.5 108.5 4.0-51-60 year 94.4 97.5 99.7 96.4 101.9 111.8 104.6 94.8-9.8 - >60 year 90.1 86.9 88.2 92.3 98.4 97.9 94.9 96.5 1.6 C. Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) - 20-30 year 135.5 138.7 141.9 143.3 144.9 136.4 137.4 138.3 0.9-31-40 year 125.8 129.2 135.4 133.2 136.9 129.2 133.9 131.4-2.5-41-50 year 124.2 125.5 130.5 130.1 126.7 127.3 129.7 128.6-1.1-51-60 year 116.0 121.2 126.6 121.9 128.8 129.0 132.7 125.8-6.9 - >60 year 107.8 106.2 115.7 114.7 111.4 112.4 125.0 118.1-6.9 B1. Current Income Index - 20-30 year 132.4 132.0 131.2 136.8 133.6 134.9 138.1 132.1-6.0-31-40 year 119.1 120.4 121.5 120.9 121.8 125.8 127.8 119.1-8.7-41-50 year 108.4 109.6 116.2 115.8 111.2 118.3 116.1 113.5-2.6-51-60 year 102.4 100.4 105.9 101.6 111.9 119.8 109.7 100.9-8.8 - >60 year 104.7 91.6 96.0 96.0 103.9 111.5 91.1 86.3-4.8 B2. Employment Conditions Index - 20-30 year 94.1 98.6 103.0 102.9 112.2 100.1 103.9 103.6-0.3-31-40 year 88.8 88.2 94.4 101.7 100.8 92.4 97.4 96.5-0.9-41-50 year 88.5 87.5 92.9 94.6 99.8 95.9 92.4 104.0 11.6-51-60 year 79.1 89.5 88.5 82.1 97.7 103.5 100.1 88.3-11.8 - >60 year 75.7 68.7 71.3 85.3 86.6 84.1 92.7 101.3 8.6 B3. Buying Durable Goods Conditions Index - 20-30 year 114.4 121.4 118.3 121.0 128.1 123.6 121.9 114.8-7.1-31-40 year 101.0 101.8 112.2 112.0 115.1 115.8 114.9 109.3-5.6-41-50 year 102.1 99.1 101.9 103.9 99.0 109.0 104.9 107.9 3.0-51-60 year 101.7 102.5 104.7 105.6 96.0 112.0 104.0 95.1-8.9 - >60 year 90.0 100.4 97.4 95.8 104.7 98.1 100.8 101.9 1.1 C1. Incomes Expectation Index - 20-30 year 152.4 148.7 153.3 154.6 156.2 149.9 147.7 148.8 1.1-31-40 year 144.3 144.8 145.5 144.4 150.1 141.3 145.7 146.7 1.0-41-50 year 138.8 138.6 141.1 137.6 137.1 133.4 144.0 140.0-4.0-51-60 year 134.0 126.8 131.3 128.5 137.7 132.1 138.2 128.9-9.3 - >60 year 119.8 107.6 122.0 127.3 117.7 111.0 116.7 118.8 2.1 C2. Employment Conditions Expectation Index - 20-30 year 118.7 127.0 127.2 125.0 132.5 117.5 119.5 125.1 5.6-31-40 year 108.6 114.4 124.9 124.1 121.7 115.0 120.6 117.1-3.5-41-50 year 110.0 113.9 119.4 117.1 119.6 116.8 111.7 116.8 5.1-51-60 year 103.3 116.0 121.0 115.3 123.7 119.9 121.5 116.0-5.5 - >60 year 98.1 96.8 104.7 102.7 104.2 124.7 113.7 118.5 4.8 C3. Business Activities Expectation Index - 20-30 year 135.3 140.3 145.2 150.2 146.1 141.9 144.9 141.0-3.9-31-40 year 124.5 128.3 135.7 131.0 138.9 131.2 135.4 130.5-4.9-41-50 year 123.9 124.1 131.1 135.4 123.5 131.6 133.3 129.0-4.3-51-60 year 110.7 120.8 127.4 122.0 125.0 135.0 138.6 132.6-6.0 - >60 year 105.6 114.1 120.5 114.1 112.2 101.6 144.7 117.2-27.5 Real Sector Statistics Division 12
Table 4. Consumer Confidence Index by Respondent Education Level Changes Descriptions Jan Feb Mar Apr Mei Jun Jul Aug (Aug - Jul) A. Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) - High School 116.2 114.7 119.7 122.5 124.1 120.7 122.8 118.8-4.0 - Diploma 116.3 121.1 124.3 124.4 124.6 123.0 126.0 123.5-2.5 - Undergraduate 112.5 121.5 123.3 127.2 129.2 124.5 124.0 127.9 3.9 - Graduate 121.5 129.3 136.5 116.6 121.3 130.0 128.4 119.7-8.7 B. Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) - High School 103.3 102.5 107.0 110.5 112.0 111.7 113.0 106.2-6.8 - Diploma 107.1 108.7 111.0 114.3 116.8 114.9 117.2 114.4-2.8 - Undergraduate 103.8 109.6 110.8 115.0 119.0 116.6 112.8 118.2 5.4 - Graduate 116.6 128.0 121.0 104.7 116.6 116.5 120.0 110.2-9.8 C. Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) - High School 129.1 127.0 132.5 134.4 136.2 129.7 132.6 131.4-1.2 - Diploma 125.4 133.4 137.7 134.5 132.3 131.0 134.8 132.7-2.1 - Undergraduate 121.1 133.3 135.9 139.5 139.4 132.4 135.1 137.5 2.4 - Graduate 126.3 130.6 152.0 128.5 126.1 143.4 136.8 129.3-7.5 B1. Current Income Index - High School 117.1 115.1 116.9 121.2 119.1 122.5 125.1 117.1-8.0 - Diploma 122.0 122.1 121.4 128.5 124.7 133.9 133.1 124.7-8.4 - Undergraduate 119.8 123.6 128.0 130.0 131.8 133.4 130.1 129.2-0.9 - Graduate 131.6 146.3 133.7 120.7 133.3 130.3 137.2 122.0-15.2 B2. Employment Conditions Index - High School 89.7 87.5 93.6 97.8 102.7 94.6 99.2 95.3-3.9 - Diploma 88.1 95.5 95.0 96.3 109.4 97.3 97.7 100.4 2.7 - Undergraduate 85.6 94.8 97.0 102.3 106.8 100.7 95.1 107.6 12.5 - Graduate 91.3 112.7 112.9 101.7 89.6 100.4 110.1 109.1-1.0 B3. Buying Durable Goods Conditions Index - High School 103.3 104.8 110.5 112.5 114.3 118.1 114.9 106.1-8.8 - Diploma 111.3 108.7 116.6 118.2 116.2 113.6 120.8 118.2-2.6 - Undergraduate 106.1 110.5 107.2 112.6 118.5 115.9 113.1 118.0 4.9 - Graduate 127.0 125.0 116.3 91.6 126.9 118.8 112.7 99.4-13.3 C1. Incomes Expectation Index - High School 143.6 138.4 141.2 143.0 146.8 139.6 142.6 142.9 0.3 - Diploma 148.0 146.8 148.4 147.9 142.4 146.9 149.9 144.3-5.6 - Undergraduate 139.1 145.4 147.6 151.3 152.9 143.8 146.9 149.0 2.1 - Graduate 150.7 149.3 160.0 144.2 143.2 146.1 150.1 134.3-15.8 C2. Employment Conditions Expectation Index - High School 115.4 114.4 122.3 121.2 125.1 114.5 117.9 117.7-0.2 - Diploma 107.0 124.6 124.5 121.6 121.9 117.6 118.7 122.2 3.5 - Undergraduate 103.7 120.4 122.3 125.4 123.8 118.6 117.9 123.4 5.5 - Graduate 93.1 114.9 138.1 119.5 106.2 132.8 107.5 135.4 27.9 C3. Business Activities Expectation Index - High School 128.3 128.2 133.9 139.1 136.8 135.1 137.3 133.5-3.8 - Diploma 121.2 128.8 140.3 134.1 132.7 128.5 135.9 131.4-4.5 - Undergraduate 120.6 134.0 137.8 141.7 141.7 134.9 140.5 140.0-0.5 - Graduate 135.2 127.6 158.1 121.9 128.7 151.4 152.7 118.1-34.6 Real Sector Statistics Division 13
Table 5. Household Income Allocation by Respondents Expenditure Level Changes Descriptions Jan Feb Mar Apr Mei Jun Jul Aug (Aug - Jul) A. Total - Consumption 63.0 66.3 66.2 65.1 64.1 64.5 64.0 63.8-0.2 - Loan Repayments 16.9 14.6 14.8 14.6 14.9 14.5 15.4 15.1-0.3 - Savings 20.1 19.1 19.0 20.3 21.0 21.1 20.6 21.1 0.5 B. Rp. 1 million - Rp. 2 million - Consumption 65.9 69.3 69.4 69.0 67.0 69.1 66.4 68.5 2.1 - Loan Repayments 14.4 11.8 11.2 11.0 10.9 11.9 14.3 11.6-2.7 - Savings 19.7 18.9 19.4 20.1 22.1 19.0 19.3 19.9 0.6 C. Rp. 2,1 million - Rp. 3 million - Consumption 64.8 66.8 67.7 65.8 65.6 66.0 65.2 65.3 0.1 - Loan Repayments 15.6 13.4 13.4 14.8 14.6 13.9 14.4 13.7-0.7 - Savings 19.6 19.8 18.9 19.4 19.8 20.1 20.4 21.0 0.6 D. Rp. 3,1 million - Rp. 4 million - Consumption 63.3 66.9 65.0 64.8 63.9 64.1 64.3 62.8-1.5 - Loan Repayments 16.8 15.2 16.1 14.8 15.1 14.4 15.8 17.0 1.2 - Savings 19.8 17.9 18.8 20.4 21.0 21.4 19.8 20.1 0.3 E. Rp. 4,1 million - Rp. 5 million - Consumption 60.2 65.8 64.2 65.4 63.1 63.0 61.7 61.2-0.5 - Loan Repayments 20.1 15.0 16.6 15.5 16.9 16.1 18.6 18.5-0.1 - Savings 19.8 19.2 19.2 19.0 19.9 20.9 19.8 20.3 0.5 F. > Rp. 5 million - Consumption 58.3 61.1 61.7 59.4 60.9 61.6 59.7 58.9-0.8 - Loan Repayments 20.0 18.9 19.4 18.1 17.2 17.4 18.5 19.6 1.1 - Savings 21.7 20.0 18.9 22.5 21.9 21.0 21.8 21.6-0.2 Real Sector Statistics Division 14
Table 5. Consumption, Saving and Debt Expectation Changes Descriptions Jan Feb Mar Apr Mei Jun Jul Aug (Aug - Jul) A. Total - Saving Expectation Index for the next 6 months 113.1 114.3 113.2 112.5 111.4 110.2 111.2 113.3 2.1 - Debt Expectation Index for the next 6 months 148.8 159.3 155.6 155.8 153.6 146.8 158.2 155.8-2.4 - Consumption Expectation Index in the next 3 months 155.3 161.5 162.7 161.9 165.9 159.5 155.7 156.6 0.9 B. Rp. 1 million - Rp. 2 million - Saving Expectation Index for the next 6 months 114.3 108.8 110.6 119.1 120.5 106.5 112.9 102.7-10.2 - Debt Expectation Index for the next 6 months 152.1 155.7 155.7 144.0 149.4 150.4 150.8 152.5 1.7 - Consumption Expectation Index in the next 3 months 152.0 159.0 162.2 162.3 158.8 156.3 154.0 161.7 7.7 C. Rp. 2,1 million - Rp. 3 million - Saving Expectation Index for the next 6 months 107.8 115.5 113.3 109.3 109.0 111.2 107.0 107.4 0.4 - Debt Expectation Index for the next 6 months 143.0 151.6 157.5 152.6 154.2 142.5 146.1 149.1 3.0 - Consumption Expectation Index in the next 3 months 154.4 162.5 160.1 161.1 167.4 160.8 155.6 157.6 2.0 D. Rp. 3,1 million - Rp. 4 million - Saving Expectation Index for the next 6 months 112.5 114.2 113.5 115.8 114.2 110.3 109.6 119.6 10.0 - Debt Expectation Index for the next 6 months 147.4 164.4 153.3 158.2 152.4 143.0 160.3 159.0-1.3 - Consumption Expectation Index in the next 3 months 159.3 163.9 162.0 160.9 167.5 161.0 157.0 155.4-1.6 E. Rp. 4,1 million - Rp. 5 million - Saving Expectation Index for the next 6 months 114.4 112.7 114.7 112.9 119.2 116.3 113.7 109.4-4.3 - Debt Expectation Index for the next 6 months 150.9 155.3 155.8 150.1 152.0 154.6 157.4 162.4 5.0 - Consumption Expectation Index in the next 3 months 162.3 164.3 161.3 162.4 168.1 163.7 160.4 154.5-5.9 F. > Rp. 5 million - Saving Expectation Index for the next 6 months 111.7 105.5 122.0 113.5 103.3 114.0 119.7 122.6 2.9 - Debt Expectation Index for the next 6 months 158.2 164.4 153.8 157.2 156.1 146.7 168.0 161.4-6.6 - Consumption Expectation Index in the next 3 months 161.1 153.9 166.3 169.7 166.2 164.4 157.2 150.4-6.8 Table 6. Placements of Disposable Income and House Purchases Changes Descriptions Jan Feb Mar Apr Mei Jun Jul Aug (Aug - Jul) A. Excess Income Allocation Plan in the Next 12 Months - Saving/ Deposit 48.3 49.5 47.8 48.4 51.4 50.1 49.6 52.3 2.7 - Gold/ Jewelry 17.7 16.7 16.8 17.9 16.8 16.7 16.9 14.9-2.0 - Equity/ Mutual funds 2.2 2.3 2.5 2.8 2.7 3.1 2.9 2.6-0.3 - Property (land, house, apartment) 23.4 22.9 23.7 22.1 20.9 21.2 22.0 21.8-0.2 - Others 8.3 8.6 9.2 8.8 8.2 8.9 8.6 8.5-0.1 A. House Purchase/Construction Plan in the Next 12 Months - Very Possible 6.1 5.8 6.3 5.3 7.2 7.6 7.6 5.4-2.2 - Possible 28.0 31.3 29.8 30.9 29.2 26.8 29.9 28.3-1.6 - No Desire 65.9 62.9 63.9 63.7 63.6 65.6 62.5 66.3 3.8 Real Sector Statistics Division 15
Table 7. Consumer Confidence Index by Region Descriptions Changes Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Ags (Ags-Jul) 1. DKI Jakarta - Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) 118.2 124.0 121.1 125.8 141.4 130.6 134.1 127.4-6.7 - Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) 100.2 106.3 100.6 109.9 129.6 118.7 121.8 113.3-8.5 - Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) 136.3 141.6 141.6 141.7 153.1 142.6 146.5 141.5-5.0 - Price expectations index for 3 months ahead 170.9 164.9 164.0 165.7 175.7 157.4 160.0 162.6 2.6 - Price expectations index for 6 months ahead 165.7 170.0 158.0 162.6 160.0 162.9 164.0 170.0 6.0 - Price expectations index for 12 months ahead 164.9 170.0 168.3 176.3 175.7 172.3 170.0 171.7 1.7 2. Bandung - Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) 118.8 121.1 125.0 126.7 128.8 124.1 129.4 130.3 0.9 - Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) 103.8 103.3 105.0 111.6 108.3 110.2 111.6 113.5 1.9 - Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) 133.8 138.9 145.0 141.9 149.3 138.0 147.2 147.0-0.2 - Price expectations index for 3 months ahead 170.7 165.3 172.0 179.8 177.3 164.4 164.7 164.2-0.5 - Price expectations index for 6 months ahead 169.1 170.4 165.6 171.8 162.2 165.1 168.9 174.0 5.1 - Price expectations index for 12 months ahead 174.9 172.2 173.8 182.4 177.3 178.9 178.0 180.0 2.0 3. Semarang - Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) 132.3 131.9 137.9 139.1 130.1 126.2 128.3 134.1 5.8 - Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) 124.7 117.4 128.0 124.1 117.7 110.6 119.8 120.6 0.8 - Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) 140.0 146.4 147.8 154.0 142.6 141.8 136.8 147.7 10.9 - Price expectations index for 3 months ahead 178.3 174.3 155.3 170.3 137.7 140.3 149.7 166.7 17.0 - Price expectations index for 6 months ahead 186.3 181.0 168.7 151.3 171.3 185.0 166.3 186.7 20.4 - Price expectations index for 12 months ahead 169.7 170.0 166.0 159.0 160.3 187.7 175.3 177.7 2.4 4. Surabaya - Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) 113.7 120.6 119.2 123.3 123.2 125.7 128.0 122.3-5.7 - Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) 105.7 114.3 111.5 114.2 115.7 125.9 119.5 112.6-6.9 - Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) 121.8 126.9 126.9 132.3 130.8 125.5 136.5 131.9-4.6 - Price expectations index for 3 months ahead 181.8 178.0 184.6 189.8 191.4 186.2 185.6 184.8-0.8 - Price expectations index for 6 months ahead 184.0 189.0 185.2 190.6 188.0 185.0 191.6 189.0-2.6 - Price expectations index for 12 months ahead 179.6 188.4 188.2 193.8 190.0 194.2 191.4 192.0 0.6 5. Medan - Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) 96.3 106.2 114.4 115.4 124.8 125.7 118.0 113.2-4.8 - Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) 87.8 100.4 109.7 110.5 121.0 119.8 110.5 104.3-6.2 - Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) 104.8 112.1 119.0 120.3 128.6 131.6 125.5 122.1-3.4 - Price expectations index for 3 months ahead 162.5 172.7 175.6 178.4 154.6 151.4 139.7 149.2 9.5 - Price expectations index for 6 months ahead 166.7 147.0 140.6 144.1 142.5 147.6 158.7 158.7 0.0 - Price expectations index for 12 months ahead 162.5 151.7 148.6 141.6 150.5 151.7 153.3 153.0-0.3 6. Palembang - Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) 120.5 125.9 129.3 129.1 123.3 126.2 128.8 124.6-4.2 - Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) 114.3 118.1 120.0 112.8 107.6 108.3 120.1 115.1-5.0 - Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) 126.7 133.7 138.7 145.3 139.1 144.1 137.6 134.0-3.6 - Price expectations index for 3 months ahead 183.0 176.0 173.7 178.7 187.7 174.3 164.7 165.7 1.0 - Price expectations index for 6 months ahead 188.3 180.7 173.7 178.0 171.0 176.7 180.7 172.0-8.7 - Price expectations index for 12 months ahead 191.3 189.3 183.0 184.0 180.3 172.3 189.7 185.0-4.7 7. Banjarmasin - Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) 98.5 91.8 94.4 97.1 92.6 95.3 99.4 90.9-8.5 - Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) 88.3 83.1 84.4 83.2 87.2 87.8 94.2 81.5-12.7 - Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) 108.6 100.6 104.3 111.0 97.9 102.8 104.6 100.3-4.3 - Price expectations index for 3 months ahead 190.0 182.9 182.1 192.5 194.2 180.0 181.7 177.1-4.6 - Price expectations index for 6 months ahead 187.9 176.3 169.2 158.3 170.8 172.1 178.8 170.4-8.4 - Price expectations index for 12 months ahead 182.9 185.0 181.7 187.5 186.7 182.1 187.1 176.3-10.8 8. Bandar Lampung - Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) 123.3 123.8 131.3 126.1 117.3 121.0 128.1 124.2-3.9 - Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) 102.3 104.0 120.7 112.5 107.3 113.3 115.5 109.7-5.8 - Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) 144.2 143.7 142.0 139.7 127.2 128.7 140.7 138.7-2.0 - Price expectations index for 3 months ahead 182.0 180.5 191.0 187.5 198.5 181.5 170.0 165.0-5.0 - Price expectations index for 6 months ahead 193.0 186.5 183.5 164.0 169.5 162.5 179.5 187.0 7.5 - Price expectations index for 12 months ahead 183.5 180.0 181.5 181.0 188.0 182.0 191.5 193.0 1.5 9. Makassar - Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) 123.4 122.5 122.3 134.8 136.1 117.3 105.2 111.9 6.7 - Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) 120.2 117.0 119.7 136.0 135.2 122.7 104.0 109.8 5.8 - Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) 126.7 128.0 124.8 133.7 137.0 112.0 106.3 114.0 7.7 - Price expectations index for 3 months ahead 197.5 179.0 184.0 182.5 188.0 183.0 181.5 166.5-15.0 - Price expectations index for 6 months ahead 196.0 186.0 183.5 190.5 183.0 180.5 182.5 178.5-4.0 - Price expectations index for 12 months ahead 195.5 193.0 191.0 192.0 191.5 185.5 197.5 192.5-5.0 Real Sector Statistics Division 16
Descriptions Changes Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Ags (Ags-Jul) 11. Denpasar - Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) 106.1 99.4 101.8 102.8 108.3 109.6 97.8 100.3 2.5 - Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) 99.7 89.7 92.8 93.7 97.3 99.8 91.8 89.0-2.8 - Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) 112.5 109.2 110.8 111.8 119.2 119.3 103.8 111.5 7.7 - Price expectations index for 3 months ahead 188.5 166.5 166.5 173.0 179.5 174.0 155.0 166.5 11.5 - Price expectations index for 6 months ahead 183.0 178.0 172.0 173.0 179.0 169.0 167.5 169.0 1.5 - Price expectations index for 12 months ahead 140.5 178.5 185.0 180.5 187.5 184.5 180.5 171.5-9.0 12. Padang - Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) 98.3 90.0 103.2 99.8 101.9 105.3 93.6 105.3 11.7 - Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) 94.3 84.8 101.7 94.3 98.7 103.2 93.2 104.3 11.1 - Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) 102.2 95.2 104.7 105.3 105.2 107.3 94.0 106.2 12.2 - Price expectations index for 3 months ahead 171.0 180.0 166.5 176.0 176.0 170.0 155.5 159.0 3.5 - Price expectations index for 6 months ahead 190.5 181.5 175.0 174.0 176.0 166.0 168.5 179.5 11.0 - Price expectations index for 12 months ahead 195.5 196.0 186.5 180.0 184.0 177.5 176.5 178.5 2.0 13. Pontianak - Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) 124.7 131.9 132.1 133.8 126.3 127.1 118.3 121.3 3.0 - Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) 124.7 126.8 128.8 128.2 117.0 121.7 115.5 120.7 5.2 - Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) 124.7 137.0 135.3 139.3 135.5 132.5 121.0 121.8 0.8 - Price expectations index for 3 months ahead 163.5 146.5 143.0 161.5 145.5 136.0 146.0 135.0-11.0 - Price expectations index for 6 months ahead 167.0 151.0 153.5 140.0 145.5 142.5 152.0 137.5-14.5 - Price expectations index for 12 months ahead 174.5 167.0 166.5 147.5 151.0 158.0 163.0 137.0-26.0 14. Manado - Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) 124.3 131.8 127.4 114.7 117.5 126.4 128.8 126.6-2.2 - Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) 122.2 125.5 133.5 115.0 116.0 125.7 129.2 128.5-0.7 - Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) 126.5 138.2 121.3 114.3 119.0 127.2 128.5 124.7-3.8 - Price expectations index for 3 months ahead 168.0 158.5 191.0 171.0 180.5 146.0 137.5 158.5 21.0 - Price expectations index for 6 months ahead 186.5 189.5 193.0 163.0 166.0 179.0 193.5 192.0-1.5 - Price expectations index for 12 months ahead 191.0 187.0 196.5 196.5 194.5 188.0 191.5 185.5-6.0 15. Mataram - Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) 120.3 110.1 105.8 117.1 112.0 109.9 115.0 107.8-7.2 - Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) 109.5 104.5 99.2 107.0 105.0 106.7 103.7 102.3-1.4 - Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) 131.0 115.7 112.3 127.2 119.0 113.2 126.3 113.3-13.0 - Price expectations index for 3 months ahead 186.0 181.5 189.0 186.0 194.5 166.5 176.5 187.5 11.0 - Price expectations index for 6 months ahead 195.5 187.5 172.5 174.5 165.0 171.5 168.0 171.0 3.0 - Price expectations index for 12 months ahead 189.5 182.5 184.0 176.5 167.5 175.0 174.0 171.0-3.0 16. Pangkal Pinang - Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) 102.6 101.5 101.9 96.1 97.3 104.3 124.4 121.8-2.6 - Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) 91.2 90.7 99.7 89.3 89.8 100.2 122.7 123.8 1.1 - Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) 114.0 112.3 104.2 102.8 104.7 108.3 126.2 119.7-6.5 - Price expectations index for 3 months ahead 182.0 170.5 168.0 172.0 177.0 168.5 166.0 164.5-1.5 - Price expectations index for 6 months ahead 175.0 170.5 166.5 163.5 153.0 157.5 156.0 149.5-6.5 - Price expectations index for 12 months ahead 171.5 184.5 155.5 162.0 154.5 166.5 159.5 175.0 15.5 17. Ambon - Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) 138.6 147.8 148.7 143.5 129.4 116.7 119.9 122.9 3.0 - Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) 117.7 128.1 127.9 127.8 111.1 89.4 92.4 88.3-4.1 - Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) 159.5 167.5 169.5 159.3 147.8 144.1 147.3 157.4 10.1 - Price expectations index for 3 months ahead 187.8 184.3 185.7 178.9 195.0 196.1 189.7 175.7-14.0 - Price expectations index for 6 months ahead 194.1 194.1 196.1 183.8 190.5 187.3 189.7 194.7 5.0 - Price expectations index for 12 months ahead 200.0 199.5 199.0 197.1 197.5 196.6 191.6 198.5 6.9 18. Banten - Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) 100.3 79.1 122.3 117.2 124.7 110.4 108.3 107.3-1.0 - Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) 93.2 74.3 100.8 111.8 127.2 111.0 110.8 107.7-3.1 - Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) 107.3 83.8 143.8 122.5 122.2 109.8 105.7 107.0 1.3 - Price expectations index for 3 months ahead 128.5 188.0 179.0 187.5 187.5 169.0 192.5 175.0-17.5 - Price expectations index for 6 months ahead 192.5 193.0 165.5 187.0 187.5 168.0 192.0 175.0-17.0 - Price expectations index for 12 months ahead 196.5 195.0 186.0 188.0 187.5 171.5 192.5 175.0-17.5 Real Sector Statistics Division 17
Table 7. Profile Respondent Descriptions Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Ags Gender - Male 45.6 49.0 47.6 46.3 46.4 46.5 44.9 46.8 - Female 54.4 51.0 52.4 53.7 53.6 53.5 55.1 53.2 Household Expenses - Rp. 1 million - Rp. 2 million 22.9 21.8 21.9 23.2 21.1 21.8 22.2 22.4 - Rp. 2,1 million - Rp. 3 million 27.4 28.0 26.8 27.8 30.3 29.1 28.2 29.0 - Rp. 3,1 million - Rp. 4 million 22.4 23.8 24.7 23.0 23.0 23.0 23.4 22.7 - Rp. 4,1 million - Rp. 5 million 10.2 9.8 10.7 10.7 10.3 10.1 10.5 9.6 - Over than Rp. 5 million 17.1 16.5 15.9 15.3 15.2 15.9 15.7 16.3 Ages - 20-30 years 28.8 26.8 30.0 32.5 33.2 33.4 31.7 32.5-31-40 years 31.4 32.1 30.3 29.7 29.7 31.7 31.4 30.9-41-50 years 24.7 24.2 24.1 22.8 22.3 22.0 23.0 22.9-51-60 years 11.3 13.3 11.2 11.3 11.3 10.2 11.2 10.7-60 years above 3.8 3.6 4.3 3.6 3.6 2.7 2.7 3.0 Educational Level - High School 61.7 66.0 62.6 64.5 62.6 64.0 65.3 61.9 - Diploma 10.5 8.2 11.1 10.9 10.2 9.8 9.5 9.7 - University 24.6 23.3 23.4 21.9 24.5 23.4 23.3 25.7 - Graduate/Post Graduate 3.2 2.4 3.0 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.0 2.7 Real Sector Statistics Division 18