13/08/12 13/10/12 13/12/12 13/02/13 13/04/13 13/06/13 13/08/13 13/10/13 13/12/13 13/02/14 13/04/14 13/06/14 13/08/14 MATELAN Research Update Note Price as of 13/08/14: 10.29 14 August 2014 Company / Sector Fair Value Recommendation BDI BioEnergy Internat. 14.2 Buy Energy: Biofuels (unchanged) (unchanged) Q2 weak but net cash limits the risk Share price performance 40 30 20 10 0 20 16 12 8 4 0 Investment case As indicated, the second quarter shows the impact of the project delays on earnings and cash flow. As the second half should also be affected, we confirm our estimates that we had reduced on July 28 th. However, BDI s current market cap is almost fully covered by the company s net cash position and operating prospects are backed by a EUR70m order book. Against this background we reiterate our Buy rating on the stock. Share data Volume (000, l.s.) Close (EUR, r.s.) Reuters D7I.DE No. of shares (m) 3.80 Daily volume (3m) 3,288 Free float 19.1% Market cap. (m) 39.1 EV (m) n.m. Sales 12-16e 7.7% Valuation 2014e 2015e EV/Sales n.m. n.m. EV/ EBITDA n.m. n.m. EV/EBIT n.m. n.m. PER n.m. 12.9 Div. yield % 1.9% RoCE n.m. 11.3% RoE n.m. 6.0% IMPACT OF PROJECT DELAYS SHOWS IN Q2 As already indicated by preliminary figures, Q2 produced a negative EBIT of EUR-2.2m on EUR4.3m in sales while the company was almost break-even on similar sales in Q1. The major difference to Q1 was a normalisation of material costs and no extraordinary gain. REDUCED ESTIMATES CAN BE CONFIRMED We still believe that the company needs quarterly sales of around EUR8m in order to operate profitably. However, the delay in major projects that has impacted the first half of the year is set to leave its mark on the second half as well. We had already lowered our estimates, which we can confirm at this stage. We also reiterate our fair value of EUR14.2. MARKET CAP BACKED BY NET CASH In contrast to the first quarter, free cash flow turned negative (EUR-3.3m) in Q2. In addition, EUR4.2m was paid to shareholders as dividend. Net cash thus came down to EUR37.1m, i.e. EUR9.8 per share. This equates almost BDI s entire market cap. For additional disclosures please refer to the appendix Analysts Forecasts Hartmut Moers Sales ( m) 29.78 35.45 17.50 40 43.10 Tel.: +49 228 227 99 240 EBITDA ( m) -0.22 3.57-3.10 4.38 4.87 hartmut.moers@matelan.de EBIT ( m) -6.73 2.59-4.50 3.05 3.45 Adj. EPS ( ) -1.16 0.85-0.70 0.80 0.88 Peter Wirtz Dividend ( ) 0 1.10 0 0.20 0.22 Tel.: +49 176 561 63 585 Oper. CF ( m) -6.29 15.45-1.44 4.23 5.23 peter.wirtz@matelan.de Free CF ( m) -8.46 14.96-1.94 3.53 4.43
Sales and EBIT margin 5 2% Adj. EPS and DPS 1.50 4 % 1.00 3 2 % -% 0.50 0-0.50-2% -1.00-3% -1.50 Sales EBIT margin (r.s.) Adj. EPS DPS In EUR Cash Flow RoCE 2 2 2 120% 80% 40% 0% - - - - - -40% -80% -120% Capex Change in NWC Intangibles PPE Cash Earnings Free Cash Flow (r.s.) NWC RoCE (r.s.) Balance Sheet Shareholder structure 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 Assets Liabilities Intangibles Tangibles Working Cap. Other Assets Cash Equity Pensions Financial debt Working Cap. Other Liab. 4.0% 2.8% 1.2% 19.6% 72.3% BDI Beteil. VTU Gössler Hammer Free float - 2 -
P & L EURm Sales 29.8 35.4 17.5 4 43.1 Growth 19.0% -50.6% 128.6% 7.8% Material costs / Inv. -17.0-19.7-9.7-22.2-23.9 Gross profit 12.7 15.7 7.8 17.8 19.2 Gross margin 42.8% 44.3% 44.5% 44.5% 44.5% Other operating costs -13.0-12.1-10.9-13.4-14.3 EBITDA -0.2 3.6-3.1 4.4 4.9 Margin -0.7% 10.1% -17.7% 11.0% 11.3% Depreciation -6.5-1.0-1.4-1.3-1.4 Margin -22.6% 7.3% -25.7% 7.6% 8.0% Financial result 1.2 1.3 1.0 1.0 1.0 EBT -5.5 3.8-3.5 4.1 4.5 Taxes 1.1-0.6 0.9-1.0-1.1 Net profit -4.4 3.2-2.7 3.0 3.4 Minorities Net profit a.m. -4.4 3.2-2.7 3.0 3.4 Growth n.m. -182.2% -214.4% 10.3% No of shares 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 EPS -1.16 0.85-0.70 0.80 0.88 Adj. EPS -1.16 0.85-0.70 0.80 0.88 Growth n.m. n.m. -182.2% -214.4% 10.3% Dividend 0 1.10 0 0.20 0.22 Balance Sheet EURm Intangible assets 9.3 8.9 8.6 8.5 8.5 Tangible assets 2.0 1.9 2.0 2.5 2.6 LT financial assets 23.1 2 26.2 26.2 26.2 Other non-current assets 12.1 12.8 13.1 13.1 13.1 Non-current assets 46.5 48.7 49.8 50.2 50.3 Inventories 1.2 0.7 0.7 1.1 1.2 Receivables 12.6 11.4 8.0 12.2 13.1 Cash 12.8 20.1 12.0 14.6 17.7 Other current assets 1.9 0.1 0.1 0.1 Current Assets 28.4 32.3 20.9 28.0 32.2 Total assets 7 80.9 70.6 78.2 82.4 Equity 50.7 53.8 46.9 5 52.6 Minorities Total equity 50.7 53.8 46.9 5 52.6 LT financial liabilities Pension provisions 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.6 Other LT liabilities 1.0 Non-current liabilities 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.5 3.6 ST financial liabilities Payables & Advances 8.0 10.5 14.5 18.5 19.9 Other ST liabilities 14.4 14.4 6.8 7.2 7.3 Current liabilities 22.3 24.9 21.3 25.7 27.2 Total liabilities 7 80.9 70.6 78.2 83.4 Cash Flow EURm Depreciation 6.5 1.0 1.4 1.3 1.4 Other non-cash items -0.4 8.4-6.7 1.5 1.1 Cash taxes 1.1-0.6 0.9-1.0-1.1 Cash earnings 0.5 11.3-8.9 4.8 4.8 Change in NWC -6.7 4.1 7.4-0.6 0.4 CF from operations -6.3 15.5-1.4 4.2 5.2 Capex -2.2-0.5-0.5-0.7-0.8 Other investm./divestm. CF from investing 2.9-0.5-0.5-0.7-0.8 CF from fin. and other -1.8-7.6-6.2-1.0-1.3 Change in cash -5.2 7.4-8.1 2.6 3.1 Segments and adjusted earnings EURm BioDiesel plants 18.2 27.8 14.0 3 36.5 Fine-vacuum dist. 6.6 7.2 3.0 4.0 BioGas plants 0.5 0.5 1.0 1.6 Sales 29.8 35.4 17.5 4 43.1 Biodiesel plants 0.7 2.0-4.0 2.8 2.9 Magin 3.8% 7.1% -28.6% 8.0% 8.0% Fine-vacuum dist. -0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 Margin -4.3% 4.0% % % 8.0% BioGas plants -7.1 0.3-0.8 0.1 0.1 Margin -143.8% 74.7% -16% % 8.0% Margin -22.6% 7.3% -25.7% 7.6% 8.0% Valuation multiples Share price 10.79 7.31 10.29 10.29 10.29 x No of shares (m) 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 Market Capitalisation 41.0 27.8 39.1 39.1 39.1 + Net financial debt -35.8-45.1-38.2-40.8-43.9 + Pension provision 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.6 + Minorities - Participations -12.1-12.8-13.1-13.1-13.1 Enterprise Value -4.9-27.9-9.8-12.2-15.2 Sales 29.8 35.4 17.5 4 43.1 Adj. EBITDA -0.2 3.6-3.1 4.4 4.9 Adj. Adj. Net profit a.m. -4.4 3.2-2.7 3.0 3.4 EV / Sales -0.2-0.8-0.6-0.3-0.4 EV / EBITDA 22.2-7.8 3.1-2.8-3.1 EV / EBIT 0.7-10.8 2.2-4.0-4.4 PE -9.3 8.6-14.7 12.9 11.7 Key operational indicators Equity ratio 67.6% 66.5% 66.5% 63.9% 63.0% Gearing Asset turnover 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.5 NWC / sales 19.7% 4.6% -33.3% -13.0% -13.0% Payable days outstanding 97.6 108.2 303.5 168.9 168.8 Receivable days outstandi 154.2 117.9 167.1 111.2 111.2 Fix operating assets 11.4 10.9 10.6 11.0 11.1 NWC 5.9 1.6-5.8-5.2-5.6 Capital employed 17.2 12.5 4.7 5.8 5.4 RoE -8.7% 6.0% -5.7% 6.1% 6.4% RoA -9.0% 3.2% -6.4% 3.9% 4.2% RoCE -39.1% 20.7% -9% 52.8% 63.3% Gross margin 42.8% 44.3% 44.5% 44.5% 44.5% EBITDA margin -0.7% 10.1% -17.7% 11.0% 11.3% EBIT margin -22.6% 7.3% -25.7% 7.6% 8.0% Net profit margin -14.8% 9.1% -15.2% 7.6% 7.8% - 3 -
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