Pattern Trader - April - 2016 - Trade Analysis, Trade Set-ups and Profit (Loss) Currency Pair: EURJPY Entry Order: SELL stop @ 126.94 Stop loss: 127.57 Take profit: 125.18 Analysis: EURJPY has been going down in a "stair-step" fashion over the past six months. Friday's failure at recent high's appears to have formed a Double-Top resistance area. Should we penetrate below the low of Friday's inside-day bar, I think you could see prices careening all the way back to the 122.00 price level...and possibly much lower.
Currency Pair: AUDUSD Entry Order: BUY stop @ 0.7701 Stop loss: 0.7646 Take profit: 0.7818 Analysis: AUDUSD has broken out of a solid Double-Bottom price pattern on the Weekly charts. Penetration above Friday's Key Reversal high could lead to further momentum on the upside. (While there could be near-term resistance at current levels, I feel compelled to follow my methodology. Namely, I have to take every "valid" signal. In this case, when I see a key reversal in the direction of the trend I have to take it).
Currency Pair: GBPAUD Entry Order: BUY stop @ 1.8782 Stop loss: 1.8718 Take profit: 1.9218 Analysis: This is an admittedly aggressive call. However, I get the feeling that GBPAUD is in the process of tracing out a Double-bottom) (bullish) price pattern at current levels. (The Double-bottom would be confirmed with a breach above the 1.900 price level). If I am right we are going to get a monster move (higher). NOTE: There is a market moving Trade Balance report coming out of Australia at 9:30pm est tonight.
Pair: XAUUSD (Spot Gold) Entry Order: SELL stop @ 1212.00 Stop loss: 1219.00 Take profit: 1187.00 Analysis: XAUUSD has run-up over $130 in the past three months, in what appears to be a shortcovering rally on the Monthly charts. On the Daily chart, XAUUSD appears to have formed both a Double-Top and a Head-and-Shoulders (bear) price pattern. Should we penetrate below today's inside-day bar, I think we could see a good thrust to the downside...in quick order.
Currency Pair: EURUSD Entry Order: BUY stop @ 1.1406 Stop loss: 1.1359 Take profit: 1.1557 Analysis: EURUSD has formed a triple-bottom on the Weekly charts at the 1.0500 price level. Presently, after climbing a "wall of worry" since December, this pair is hovering around the Weekly resistance area. Should we get further penetration above the high of today's Key Reversal price action, it is likely that prices will continue to the upside.
Currency Pair: AUDNZD Entry Order: SELL stop @ 1.1067 Stop loss: 1.1118 Take profit: 1.0857 Analysis: AUDNZD appears to have run into might "headwinds" at the 1.1300 level on the Weekly charts, and a Double-Top (bear) price pattern at that level on the Daily charts. Today's session large Key Reversal suggests all the recent upside momentum in this pair has been sucked out. We may have further price consolidation at current levels, but I think it's just a question of time before we drop back to the 1.0500 support level.
Pair: XAUUSD (Spot Gold) Entry Order: SELL stop @ 1214.00 Stop loss: 1224.00 Take profit: 1187.00 Analysis: XAUUSD has run-up over $130 in the past three months, in what appears to be a shortcovering rally on the Monthly charts. On the Daily chart, XAUUSD appears to have formed both a Double-Top and a Head-and-Shoulders (bear) price pattern. Should we penetrate below today's inside-day bar, I think we could see a good thrust to the downside.
Currency Pair: NZDCAD Entry Order: BUY stop @ 0.8961 Stop loss: 0.8917 Take profit: 0.9057 Analysis: NZDCAD appears to be tracing out a Double-Bottom and Inverted Head-and-Shoulders support price pattern. Should we penetrate above today's inside-day bar we could see further momentum to the upside. Keep your risk low on this one.
Pair: XAUUSD (Spot Gold) Entry Order: BUY stop @ 1245.00 Stop loss: 1234.00 Take profit: 1287.00 Analysis: I am reversing my analysis on Gold over the past few days. I now believe Gold is forming the basis of an explosive move (to the upside). Click this link for a detailed video analysis: BIG Move in Gold
Currency Pair: GBPAUD Entry Order 1: BUY limit @ 1.8697 Stop loss: 1.8632 Take profit: 1.9008 Entry Order 2: BUY stop @ 1.8803 Stop loss: 1.8709 Take profit: 1.9008 Analysis: With today's price action, I believe GBPAUD is in the process of tracing out a Double-bottom (bullish) price pattern at current levels. If I am right we are going to get a monster move (higher). Click this link for a detailed video analysis: GBPAUD 1000+ Pip Move Upcoming Risk Management: Aggressive traders can elect to take both trades with 0.5% risk per trade.
Pair: XAUUSD (Spot Gold) Entry Order: BUY stop @ 1243.00 Stop loss: 1234.00 Take profit: 1277.00 Analysis: XAUUSD (Spot Gold) has "busted" a Descending Wedge Triangle (bear) price pattern on the Weekly charts. It now appears that XAUUSD is forming an inverted head-and-shoulders (bull) price pattern on the Weekly charts. It also looks like this pair has formed an interim Double-bottom on the Daily charts. Penetration above the high of Friday's inside-day bar should provide the impetus of a BIG move to the upside. Click this link for a detailed video analysis: BIG Move in Gold
Currency Pair: GBPAUD Entry Order: BUY stop @ 1.8741 Stop loss: 1.8768 Take profit: 1.9008 Analysis: I believe GBPAUD is in the process of tracing out a Double-bottom (bullish) price pattern at current levels. Penetration above the high of Friday's inside-day bar could be the beginning of a monster move (higher). Click this link for a detailed video analysis: GBPAUD 1000+ Pip Move Upcoming
Pair: NAS100 (NASDAQ 100) Entry Order: SELL stop @ 4459.00 Stop loss: 4478.00 Take profit: 4397.00 Analysis: In December, NAS100 fell precipitously out of a Triple-Top (bear) price pattern, dropping from the 4700 price area to about 3850. Since bottoming in February this market has rallied back to the neckline of the Triple-top price pattern, where it now appears there could be some significant resistance. Penetration below the low of Friday's inside-day bar could open the possibility of a (big) decline from current levels.
Currency Pair: CADJPY Entry Order: BUY stop @ 83.83 Stop loss: 83.35 Take profit: 85.09 Analysis: In February, CADJPY formed a distinctive Double-Bottom price pattern at the 79.00 price level. Also, while other yen-cross pairs recently have come all the way back to their Feb low's, CADJPY has not - creating a (possible) "bullish divergence". Should today's session inside-day bar high get taken out, we could see a surprise move to the upside.
Currency Pair: AUDCAD Entry Order: SELL stop @ 0.9781 Stop loss: 0.9827 Take profit: 0.9677 Analysis: On the basis of some very bearish Double-Top price patterns - on the Monthly, Weekly and Daily chart time-frames - in the past few weeks, I have tried (unsuccessfully) to get a short position on in this pair. However, the large Key Reversal price action in today's session could be just what the doctor ordered to get some (renewed) momentum to the downside. It's worth another try, but keep your risk low, in case we get c%#k-blocked in this pair again.
Currency Pair: GBPJPY Entry Order: SELL stop @ 154.70 Stop loss: 155.21 Take profit: 153.51 Analysis: GBPJPY is in a well-established down-trend. The recent small rally feels like a "dead-cat" bounce in an inherently weak market. Penetration below the low of today's NR7 bar (the narrowest range in the past 7 trading sessions), could be a catalyst for a move to fresh lows. Keep your risk small.
Currency Pair: GBPAUD Entry Order: BUY stop @ 1.8441 Stop loss: 1.8377 Take profit: 1.8797 Analysis: In my recent Weekly Video Report I analyze the impact of inside-day / NR4 (narrowest trading range in past four trading sessions) bars at the top or bottom of a "channel". Should we penetrate above the high of Friday's inside-day / NR4 bar, I think there is a good chance of an explosive move to the upside. I am going out on a limb on this one but I think the risk:reward on this trade good be very favorable. Click this link to download: Weekly Video Report
Currency Pair: EURGBP Entry Order: SELL stop @ 0.7937 Stop loss: 0.7979 Take profit: 0.7777 Analysis: Last week EURGBP incurred "headwinds" at a major resistance price level on the Weekly charts. Moreover, while this is an admittedly early call, it appears that EURGBP (could) be forming a rightangled and ascending broadening chart pattern. If I am correct, this pair projects down to (at least) the 0.7500 price level. I think if we penetrate below the low of Friday's inside-day / NR4 bar (narrowest trading range in past four trading sessions), there is a good chance of a healthy move to the downside. Risk Management: Both of tonight's trade-set-ups and analysis are correlated to the GBP currency. I am electing to take both trades, with a 0.75% risk on each.
Currency Pair: AUDCHF Entry Order: BUY stop @ 0.7479 Stop loss: 0.7479 Take profit: 0.7481 Analysis: Following a brief sell-off, AUDCHF is again challenging the upper-end of its resistance price level. Today's major Key Reversal suggests that momentum is set to continue on the upside.
Currency Pair: GBPJPY Entry Order: BUY stop @ 155.71 Stop loss: 155.02 Take profit: 160.18 Analysis: Up to today, I have been extremely bearish on this pair. However, today's Key Reversal at or near another major support level suggests that momentum in GBPJPY could be ready to swing to the upside. We could be in for further volatility at current prices, before this pair gets going to the upside, so keep your risk low.
Pair: XAUUSD (Spot Gold) Entry Order: SELL stop @ 1230.00 Stop loss: 1236.50 Take profit: 1191.00 Analysis: It appears that XAUUSD has run into "headwinds" at current levels, and is in the process of tracing out a Head-and-Shoulders top (bear) price pattern. Penetration below the low of today's slight reversal bar, could open up the door to a bigger decline soon.
Currency Pair: NZDUSD Entry Order: SELL stop @ 0.6835 Stop loss: 0.6881 Take profit: 0.6727 Analysis: NZDUSD formed a nasty Key Reversal on the Weekly charts, indicating a decline from current levels. Although this pair may require a little more "work" before it goes lower, I think if prices penetrate below the low of today's inside-bar, we could see an immediate follow-through to the downside. Risk Management: I am already Short AUDUSD. NZDUSD is closely correlated to this pair. So I am electing to take this trade with a small risk (0.5%).
Currency Pair: GBPAUD Entry Order: BUY stop @ 1.8477 Stop loss: 1.8431 Take profit: 1.8777 Analysis: In last week's Weekly Video Report I noted the potency of an inside-day or Narrow-range bar price action at the bottom (or top) of a lengthy price "channel". In the case of GBPAUD, with today's price action, we have two inside-day / narrow-range bars in the past three trading sessions. While still a bit of a long-shot, I (continue) to believe that if we trade above the high of today's NR4 bar (the narrowest trading range in the past four sessions), we could see an explosive move to the upside. Click this link to download my recent analysis of GBPAUD: Weekly Video Report
Currency Pair: GBPJPY Entry Order: BUY stop @ 157.88 Stop loss: 157.05 Take profit: 159.57 Analysis: Unfortunately, last night the stop on my Long GBPJPY trade was triggered (we still made a profit), before GBPJPY turned higher later in today's session. It appears that the momentum in this pair has further to continue to the upside. A few days ago GBPJPY established a Double-Bottom (bull) price pattern at about the 152.00 level. Should we penetrate above the high of today's (almost) inside-day bar, it feels like we could get another push higher.
Pair: XAUUSD (Spot Gold) Entry Order: SELL stop @ 1242.00 Stop loss: 1249.00 Take profit: 1221.00 Analysis: XAUUSD (Spot Gold) appears trapped in a trading range between 1200 and 1280. I feel Gold has a good chance of retracing to the lower end of its recent trading range due to; 1) price action (Key Reversals), and, 2) bearish divergence. Price Action: Each time XAUUSD has made an attempt at higher levels, it has been spurned in a big way (Key Reversal), and closed on the lower end of its Daily trading range (including today's Key Reversal). Bearish divergence: In recent trading sessions, both Silver and Platinum have traded to new Weekly highs. XAUUSD (Gold) has NOT made new Weekly high's, hence the bearish divergence.
Currency Pair: GBPAUD Entry Order: BUY stop @ 1.8525 Stop loss: 1.8447 Take profit: 1.8887 Analysis: Today's large Key Reversal at or near a recent low (Double-Bottom), suggests that this pair could be ready to turn tail in the opposite direction (higher)...in a hurry. I've made no secret that I think this pair could be setting up for an explosive move to the upside. Despite being stopped out several times in the past few weeks in an attempt to catch this wave, I remain undeterred, and feel strongly that today's price action could be the impetus for a (BIG) move higher. Call me obstinate, but if this pair ends up running for a 1,000+ pips...you won't be unhappy...lol.. I am raising my risk to 1% on this one.
Currency Pair: AUDUSD Entry Order: SELL stop @ 0.7729 Stop loss: 0.7771 Take profit: 0.7627 Analysis: This is an early call. AUDUSD appears that it could be at the peak of a Right-Angled and Ascending Broadening Triangle Formation. Today's Key Reversal at the peak of this price pattern could be the beginning of a counter-trend move lower. Risk Management: Both AUDUSD & GBPAUD are highly correlated to the AUD$. You can choose to trade one, or the other, or both. I am trading both pairs, with 0.5% risk on AUDUSD, and, 1.0% risk on GBPAUD.
Pair: XAUUSD (Spot Gold) Entry Order: SELL stop @ 1243.00 Stop loss: 1251.00 Take profit: 1218.00 Analysis: This is a repeat of yesterday's analysis. We did not get executed on this trade, but I think after today's large Key Reversal my analysis is still applicable. XAUUSD (Spot Gold) appears trapped in a trading range between 1200 and 1280. I feel Gold has a good chance of retracing to the lower end of its recent trading range due to; 1) price action (Key Reversals), and, 2) bearish divergence. Price Action: Each time XAUUSD has made an attempt on higher levels it has been spurned in a big way (Key Reversal), and closed on the lower end of its Daily trading range (including today's Key Reversal). Bearish divergence: In recent trading sessions, both Silver and Platinum have traded to new Weekly highs. XAUUSD (Gold) has not made new high's, hence the bearish divergence.
Currency Pair: USDCHF Entry Order: SELL stop @ 0.9731 Stop loss: 0.9779 Take profit: 0.9631 Analysis: USDCHF has re-traced to the neckline of a Triple-Top (bear) pattern. Penetration below the low of today's inside-bar could translate to further momentum on the downside.
Currency Pair: CADJPY Entry Order: BUY stop @ 88.35 Stop loss: 87.91 Take profit: 90.18 Analysis: CADJPY formed a classic Double-Bottom in the Jan-Feb timeframe. Since that time this pair has been traversing incrementally higher. In recent trading sessions CADJPY has penetrated the neckline of the Double-bottom price pattern. Penetration above the high of today's strong Key Reversal bar should result in continued momentum to the upside. I really like this trade set-up. Pair: XAUUSD (Spot Gold) Entry Order: BUY stop @ 1245.00 Stop loss: 1239.00 Take profit: 1275.00 Analysis: Admittedly, for the past few weeks, I have been straddling both sides of this trade. Last week this pair appeared to have run into "headwinds" at or near current levels. Based on recent price action XAUUSD should have followed through to the downside.
Instead, for the past two trading sessions XAUUSD has been unable to penetrate, and is "coiling", at recent support levels. Accordingly, it feels like if we penetrate above the high's of the past two inside-day trading sessions, we could see (much) higher prices...in the near term. Currency Pair: GBPJPY Entry Order: BUY stop @ 162.35 Stop loss: 161.85 Take profit: 163.77 Analysis: Recently, GBPJPY formed a Double-Bottom (bull) price pattern at around the 152.00 price level. It feels if prices can penetrate above today's inside-day / NR4 bar (narrowest range in past four trading sessions), we could blow through the recent resistance levels.
Currency Pair: GBPCAD Entry Order: BUY stop @ 1.8345 Stop loss: 1.8285 Take profit: 1.8557 Trade Risk Profile: 1.25% Analysis: This is an admittedly aggressive call, however I feel based on recent price action in this pair, we could see a sudden sneak attack to the upside. While GBPCAD has been in a pronounced down-trend for most of this year, a few weeks ago prices stopped going down, and formed a small Double-Bottom (bull) price pattern at around the 1.8100 level. I feel if we take out the high of today's subtle "hook-up" or Key Reversal, you could see an explosive move (higher) out of this "area". I really like the risk:reward potential on this trade.
Currency Pair: GBPAUD Entry Order: BUY stop @ 1.9174 Stop loss: 1.9111 Take profit: 1.9318 Trade Risk Profile: 0.75% Analysis: You know my feelings on this one. Recently I extracted 472 pips on the long-side of this pair. After a "consolidation" day, GBPAUD has formed an inside-day bar. Penetration above the high of today's session should result in continued momentum to the upside. Risk Management: Both GBPAUD and GBPCAD are closely correlated to the GBP currency. I am electing to take both trades, with 1.25% risk on GBPCAD, and, 0.75% risk on GBPAUD.
Pair: XAUUSD (Spot Gold) Entry Order: BUY stop @ 1271.00 Stop loss: 1261.00 Take profit: 1295.00 Trade Risk Profile: 0.5% Analysis: XAUUSD (Spot Gold) has "busted" a Descending Wedge Triangle (bear) price pattern on the Weekly charts. It now appears that XAUUSD is forming an inverted head-and-shoulders (bull) price pattern on the Weekly charts. It also looks like this pair has formed an interim Double-bottom on the Daily charts. Penetration above the high of today's "outside" Key Reversal bar (it took out both, the high, and the low, of the previous session) should provide the impetus of a BIG move to the upside.
Pattern Trader - April 2016 - Trade-by-Trade Profit (Loss)