NationalEconomicTrends December 7 What Do You Get for Sixteen Tons? You load sixteen tons, and what do you get? Another day older and deeper in debt Merle Travis The chorus from Travis s 197 song about the plight of coal miners might ring true for someone looking at average hourly earnings (AHE) of production and nonsupervisory workers By this measure, as shown in the chart, the pay for an hour of work fell in real terms by percent between 197 and Is the average worker actually receiving less per hour of work today than 1 years? The answer is likely no In fact, an alternative measure of compensation, national labor income per hour, increased percent during this period What accounts for these conflicting results and why do we conclude that the average worker s real compensation per hour has increased since the mid-197s? Both the AHE and the national labor income series are adjusted for inflation However, AHE is adjusted using the consumer price index for all urban wage earners and clerical workers (CPI-W), while national labor income per hour is adjusted using the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) implicit price deflator To calculate the purchasing power of an hour of work, it is more appropriate to use the PCE implicit price deflator to adjust for inflation because this index better reflects the basket of goods and services actually consumed Contrary to the CPI-W, which assumes that the same basket of goods and services is purchased for several years, the PCE deflator is calculated using expenditures from the current and preceding period After applying the PCE deflator, AHE show an 11 percent increase rather than a percent decrease between 197 and Another difference in the construction of the two data series is that national labor income per hour includes not only wages and salaries, but also fringe benefits Given the importance of benefits to a worker s standard of living, we think many would disagree with the use of the label fringe The benefits of employer contributions to worker s pension and insurance funds and to government social insurance are included in national labor income per hour, but are not in the AHE series 1 These benefits have become a larger share of worker compensation over time, rising from 1 percent in 197 to 19 percent in Once the AHE data are adjusted to include estimated benefits per hour and the PCE deflator is applied, the calculated increase in real wages and benefits reaches 1 percent between 197 and Without question, the 1 percent increase in average hourly earnings following the two adjustments described above remains far short of the percent increase in national labor income per hour What accounts for the remaining difference is unclear Part of the difference is likely due to the fact that the AHE is restricted to production and nonsupervisory workers What is clear, however, is that the average worker is receiving more in for sixteen tons than 1 years Cletus C Coughlin and Lesli S Ott 1 For details on the construction of national labor income per hour and insights on distributional issues, see Fitzgerald, Terry J Has Middle America Stagnated? A Closer Look at Hourly Wages Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis The Region, September 7; wwwminneapolisfedorg/pubs/region/7-9/wagescfm Average Hourly Earnings vs National Labor Income per Hour, 197- Dollars 1 1 1 National Labor Income per Hour Average Hourly Earnings 197 197 191 19 197 199 199 199 1999 SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis Views expressed do not necessarily reflect official positions of the Federal Reserve System researchstlouisfedorg
Contents Page Economy at a Glance Output and Growth 7 Interest Rates Inflation and Prices 1 Labor Markets Consumer Spending 1 Investment Spending 1 Government Revenues, Spending, and Debt 1 International Trade Productivity and Profits Quick Reference Tables 7 Notes and Sources Conventions used in this publication: 1 Shaded areas indicate recessions, as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research refers to simple percent changes from year refers to the percent change from the same month or quarter during the previous year Compounded annual of change shows what the growth would be over an entire year if the same simple percent change continued for four quarters or twelve months The compounded annual of change of x between the previous quarter t 1 and the current quarter t is: [(x t /x t 1 ) 1] 1 For monthly data replace with All data with significant seasonal patterns are adjusted accordingly, unless labeled NSA We welcome your comments addressed to: Editor, National Economic Trends PO Box St Louis, MO 1- or to: stlsfred@stlsfrborg National Economic Trends is published by the of the Visit the s website at researchstlouisfedorg/publications/net to download the current version of this publication or register for e-mail notification updates For more information on data in this publication, please visit researchstlouisfedorg/fred or call (1) -7
updated through //7 National Economic Trends Real GDP Growth Compounded annual s of change Consumer Price 1 1 - - 7 171 17 1 1717 17-7 171 17 1 1717 17 Industrial Production 1 Interest Rates Percent 1 - -1-1 1 1- Treasury -Month Treasury - 7 171 17 1 1717 17 7 171 17 1 1717 17 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Thousands Unemployment Rate Percent of labor force 1-1 7 171 17 1 1717 17 7 171 17 1 1717 17
National Economic Trends updated through 1// Real Gross Domestic Product from year 1-7 9 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 7 7 9 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 7 Industrial Production and Institute for Supply Management (ISM) es from year 1 Industrial Production 7 - - -1 ISM 7 9 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 7 7 9 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 7 Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours from year - - 7 9 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 7 7 9 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 7 Real Change in Private Inventories Percent of GDP 1-1 - 7 9 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 7 7 9 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 7
updated through 1// Real Final Sales and GDP Compounded annual s of change Final Sales GDP (bar) - 7 17 1 1717 17 Real GDP Revisions National Economic Trends Compounded annual s of change 7 Advance Preliminary Final Revision 1 : : 7:1 7: 7: Industrial Production and ISM 1 ISM 1 Nominal Gross Domestic Product Compounded annual s of change 1 - -1 Industrial Production (bar) -1 7 17 1 1717 17 7 17 1 1717 17 Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours 1 Average Weekly Private Nonfarm Hours Hours 7 7 - - 7 17 1 1717 17 7 17 1 1717 17 Real Change in Private Inventories Billions of dollars 7 - - 7 17 1 1717 17 Inventory-Sales Ratio Manufacturing and trade 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 7 17 1 1717 17
National Economic Trends updated through //7 Contribution of Components to Real GDP Growth Percentage points at compounded annual s 1 - - - Q Q1 Q Q Q 7Q1 7Q 7Q Consumption Exports Government Imports Inventories Investment Contributions to Real GDP Growth Rate 7 th 1st nd rd th 1st nd rd Final Sales - 1 19 97 1 Consumption 1 1 1 1 Fixed Investment 17 - - -119-7 9-11 Nonresidential 11-1 9 Residential - -7-1 -1-9 - -1 Government -7 9 1 1-9 79 7 Federal - 7-11 - 1 State and Local 9 9 1 7 Net Exports -11 1 9-1 -1 1 1 Exports 17 119 1 11 1 1 Imports -7-17 - - - - 7-7 Change in Inventory 17-9 1-11 - 9 Residual - -11-19 - -19 - - - Real GDP Growth 119 17 9 91
updated through /17/7 National Economic Trends Interest Rates Percent 1 9 1- Treasury -Month Treasury 7 9 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 7 7 9 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 7 Treasury Yield Curve Percent 7 7 Nov Nov 7 Week Ending: /1/7 m 1y y y 7y 1y Standard and Poor's with Reinvested Dividends from year 7 - - 7 9 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 7 7 9 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 7 7
National Economic Trends updated through //7 NIPA Chain Price es from year 1 GDP Gross Domestic Purchases 7 9 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 7 7 9 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 7 Consumer Price from year 9 Excl Food and Energy All Items 7 9 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 7 7 9 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 7 Producer Price, Finished Goods from year 1 - Excl Food and Energy 7 9 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 7 7 9 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 7 PPI Employment Cost and Compensation per Hour from year 9 Comp per Hour ECI 7 9 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 7 7 9 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 7
updated through 1// NIPA Chain Price es Compounded annual s of change Gross Domestic Purchases National Economic Trends Oil & Natural Gas Prices: Spot & Futures Dollars per barrel 1 Spot Oil Dollars per million btu Oil Futures 1 1 GDP (bar) -1 7 17 1 1717 17 Consumer Price Compounded annual s of change Spot Gas Gas Futures 7 7 9 Note: Futures prices as of 11//7 Consumption Chain Price Compounded annual s of change 1 1 CPI (bar) PCE (bar) - Excl Food & Energy - Excl Food & Energy -1 7 17 1 1717 17-7 17 1 1717 17 Producer Price, Finished Goods Compounded annual s of change 1-1 Excl Food & Energy PPI (bar) - 7 17 1 1717 17 Unit Labor Cost Compounded annual s of change 1 Nonfarm - Manufacturing (bar) -1-7 17 1 1717 17 Employment Cost from year Compensation per Hour Compounded annual s of change Benefits Compensation 9 Wages and Salaries 7 1 7 171 17 1 1717 17-7 17 1 1717 17 9
National Economic Trends updated through /7/7 Employment from year Payroll Survey Household Survey - - 7 9 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 7 7 9 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 7 Unemployment, Labor Force Participation, and Employment Rates Percent of labor force 9 Labor Force/Population Employment/Population Percent of population 7 7 1 Unemployment Rate 7 9 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 7 7 9 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 7 Duration of Unemployment Percent of labor force Weeks 1 7 1 1 7 Unemployed > Weeks Unemployed < Weeks Median 1 7 9 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 7 7 9 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 7 1
updated through /7/7 National Economic Trends Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Thousands 7 7-7 17 1 1717 7 17 Change in Manufacturing Payrolls Thousands 1-1 - - - - 17 1 1717 7 17 Change in Household Employment Thousands 1 9% Confidence Labor Force and Population from year 1 Pop 1 - - Labor Force - 7 17 1 1717 17-7 1 7 171 17 1 1717 17 Available Labor Supply and Components Percent of labor force 1 9 Available Labor Supply 7 Unemployed Want to Work 7 1 7 171 17 1 1717 17 Unemployment Rate & Job Openings Rate Percent Unemployment Rate Job Openings Rate Percent 1 7 1 7 171 17 1 1717 17 179 9% Confidence 11
National Economic Trends updated through //7 Real Disposable Personal Income from year, quarterly data - 7 9 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 7 7 9 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 7 Real Consumption from year, quarterly data 1 Durables from year, quarterly data Total - - -1 7 9 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 7 7 9 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 7 - Retail and Food Services Sales from year, quarterly average 1-7 9 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 7 7 9 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 7 *Data from Jan 199 to the present are on a NAICS basis; data prior to Jan 199 are on an SIC basis and are not strictly comparable (see End Note) Debt Service Payments and Household Debt Outstanding from year, quarterly data 1 Percent of disposable personal income 1 9 Debt Service Payments 1 Household Debt Outstanding 7 9 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 7 7 9 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 7 11 1
updated through /1/7 Real Disposable Personal Income 1-1 - - - 7 17 1 1717 17 Personal Saving Rate National Economic Trends Percent - - 7 1 7 171 17 1 1717 17 Real Consumption Compounded annual s of change Real Consumption 1-7 17 1 1717 17-1 7 17 1 1717 17 Retail & Food Services Real Durables Consumption & Vehicle Sales Millions of vehicles, annual Ex Autos 1 Autos and Light Trucks 1 1 1-1 Total (bar) - 7 17 1 1717 17-1 Durables (bar) -1 7 17 1 1717 17 Consumer Sentiment (U of Michigan) 11 Real Durables Consumption Compounded annual s of change 1 9-7 7 1 7 171 17 1 1717 17-7 17 1 1717 17 1
National Economic Trends updated through //7 Investment Percent of nominal GDP Total 1 1 1 7 9 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 7 7 9 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 7 Private Private Fixed Investment from year 1 Nominal Real - - -1 7 9 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 7 7 9 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 7 Real Nonresidential Fixed and Equipment & Software Investment from year 1 - -1 Equipment & Software Nonresidential - 7 9 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 7 7 9 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 7 Real Residential Fixed Investment from year - - 7 9 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 7 7 9 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 7 1
updated through //7 National Economic Trends Gross Saving Rates and Balance on Current Account (NIPA) Percent of GDP 1 - -1 Gross Private Saving Gross Govt Saving BOCA 7 9 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 7 7 9 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 7 Real Private Fixed Investment Compounded annual s of change Nondefense Capital Goods Orders from year, excluding aircraft 1-1 -1 - Orders Equipment & Software Investment -1 7 17 1 1717 17-7 1 7 171 17 1 1717 17 Real Equipment & Software Investment Compounded annual s of change 1 - -1 7 17 1 1717 17 Real Nonresidential Fixed Investment Compounded annual s of change 1-7 17 1 1717 17 Real Residential Fixed Investment Compounded annual s of change Housing Starts and New Home Sales Millions, annual New Home Sales Millions, annual 1 1 1-1 - 1 1 Housing Starts 11 1-7 17 1 1717 17 1 7 17 1 1717 17
National Economic Trends updated through //7 Govt Consumption and Investment Billions of dollars 1 Govt Current Receipts and Expenditures Percent of GDP Total Expenditures 1 Total Total Receipts State & Local Fed Expenditures 9 Federal Fed Receipts 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Government Budgets Billions of dollars National Income Accounts Calendar s Unified Budget Fiscal s Receipts State and Local Federal Federal Expenditures Surplus or Deficit (-) Receipts Expenditures Surplus or Deficit (-) Receipts Outlays Surplus or Deficit (-) 1991 79 79-1 111 1-17 1 1-9 199 7 7 117 1-97 191 11-9 199 9 9 19-7 1 19-1 199 99 9 1 1 1-7 119-199 99 97 1 1-197 119 9-1 199 1 117-11 -17 1997 197 91 1 179-79 11-19 199 11 1111 177 179 9 17 7 9 1999 7 11 191 177 1 17 17 119 9 1 19 179 1 17 1 1 199 7 1991 1 111 1-111 -79 11-7 19 1-1799 1-7 17 11-77 9 9 1 9 79-7 1 9-7 179 1917 1-1 9 7-1 17977 177 7 9 7-7 -77 Q 171 17-1 -91 9-119 Q1 177 171 7-197 7 91-1 Q 17 179 71 711-99 771 77 9 Q 17 179 11 7-9 99 7-17 Q 1 1 7 19 7-11 7 9-7Q1 1-197 -1 7 7-17 7Q 199 17 1 71 79-9 17 7Q 19 19-1 7 9197-7 -1 1
updated through //7 Federal Debt Percent of GDP 7 Total Percent of GDP National Economic Trends Federal Surplus (+) / Deficit (-) Held by Public - - - NIPA Unified Budget - 9 9 9 9 9 Change in Federal Debt Percent of GDP 9 9 9 9 9 NIPA: Net government saving Federal Surplus (+) / Deficit (-), Unified Basis Billions of dollars, fiscal years 7 Total Excl interest payments - Held by Public - - Total - -7 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Federal Government Debt Billions of dollars, end of month or fiscal year Excludes Agency-issued debt Total Public Debt Held by Agencies and Trusts Held by Public Federal Total Reserve Banks Held by Private Investors Foreign and Total International 797 11 1 7 9 19 7 79 7 7 7 977 9 9 779 97 9 March 7111 9 177 71 1771 June 77 17 7 1 179 September 7791 77 7 7 1797 December 791 19 717 9 March 7779 7 717 19 June 7 9 7 77 179 September 797 11 1 7 9 19 December 17 71 7 97 March 71 9 7 7 11 June 797 7 1979 September 7 79 7 7 December 779 91 779 1 117 7 March 97 79 79 71 June 77 9 9 79 September 977 9 9 779 97 9 17
National Economic Trends updated through 1// Current Account, Trade and Investment Income Balances Billions of dollars, quarterly - - - - -1 - -1-1 -1 - Investment Income Current Account Goods and Services Percent of GDP - - 7 9 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 7 7 9 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 7 - - - - -1 - -1-1 -1 Exchange Rates, March 197 = 1 1 Yen/US$ 1 x (Ecu or Euro/US$) 7 1 1 Yen Major Currency Euro Ecu 7 7 9 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 7 7 9 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 7 Goods Export Shares, Goods Import Shares, UK % Mexico 111% UK 7% Mexico 1% China 7% All Other 9% China % Japan % Japan 79% France 7% Germany % All Other 77% Germany 7% Other OECD 17% Canada % France 199% Other OECD % Canada 1% 1
updated through /17/7 Trade Balance Billions of dollars - - - - - Goods and Services -7 Goods - 7 17 1 1717 17 Goods Trade National Economic Trends from year Exports 1 Imports - 7 17 1 1717 17 Current Account Balance Billions of dollars - - Services Trade from year Exports 9 - -1 - Imports - 7 17 1 1717 17-7 17 1 1717 17 Real GDP Growth of Major Trading Partners Compounded annual s of change United Kingdom Germany - 7-7 Canada France - 7-7 Japan Mexico - 7-7 19
National Economic Trends updated through /1/7 Output per Hour and Capacity Utilization, Manufacturing from year 1 Utilization Rate (level) Percent 9 7 Output/Hour - 7 9 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 7 7 9 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 7 *Data from 197 to the present are on a NAICS basis; data prior to 197 are on an SIC basis and are not strictly comparable (see End Note) Nonfarm Compensation per Hour from year 1 Nominal Real - 7 9 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 7 7 9 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 7 Output per Hour, Nonfarm Business and Nonfinancial Corporations from year 9 Nonfinancial Corporations Nonfarm Business Sector - 7 9 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 7 7 9 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 7
updated through //7 National Economic Trends Nonfarm Output per Hour Compounded annual s of change Manufacturing Output per Hour Compounded annual s of change - 7 17 1 1717 17-7 17 1 1717 17 Selected Component Shares of National Income Percent Percent 7 1 11 9 7 Corpo Profits Proprietors' Income 7 71 9 7 Compensation 1 7 9 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 7 7 9 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 7 1 Corpo Profits Percent of GDP 1 1 Profits (Before Tax) Profits (After Tax) 7 9 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 7 7 9 9 91 9 9 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 7 1
National Economic Trends updated through //7 Billions of $ Nominal GDP Billions of $ Real GDP Billions of $ Final Sales Change in Private Inventories Billions of $ Last qtr / 19 7 11 1 1 19 1777 11979 9 11 1 197 7 1197 1 1119 9 179 9 1 1 1 1 77 9 19 111 7 7 1 1 11779 1771 11 7 7 119 9 179 1 1771 7 71 1 71 17 1 19 9 9 9 17 17 1 199 19 17 77 1 117 11771 7 9 17 7 11171 1 9 119-9 7 1 9 7 1 111917 99 1 119 7 19 7 19 117 11 1799 1 19 9 9 19 119 1 1177 171 9 7 1 119 9 1119 1 1111 1 19 97 7 17 7 11 19 1777 7 191 197 197 9 19 1 17 Billions of $ Consumption Durables Consumption Billions of $ Private Fixed Investment Billions of $ Nonresidential Fixed Investment Billions of $ 799 7 97 111 1 71 17 1777 7 11 79 117 9 117 9 79 71 1 119 179 17 1 7711 1 9 171-7 1991-9 77 7 171 19 1 197 9 7 179 17 9 77 191 7 1771 9 1179 79 7 111 7 1777 7 7 119 1 7 1 77977 1 111 7 17 1199 91 777 119 11 7 11977 79 71 117 77 7791 1 11 99 9 77 1 1791-1 1 1 1 79191 11771 1 191 79 97 1 7 979 11719 1 199-19 1 7 1 7 11 197-7 119 1 11 9 1197 9 11-71 -1 117-1 7 1 7 7 1 7 1191 - - 117 1 9 1 9 17 19-1 11 1 19 7 97-7 - 177 9 1
updated through //7 National Economic Trends GDP Chain Price Employment Cost ECI: Wages ECI: Benefits 19 1 97 9 1 19 9 9 97 7 9 11 99 1 99 99 11 1 9 9 1 9 1 11 7 99 97 7 99 11 19 9 9 9 9 7 9 7 197 97 97 9 7 1177 97 7 97 17 9 7 1 1117 9 9 9 9 7 9 1 9 1 9 1 9 7 11 99 9 9 99 99 119 11 9 11 1 9 1 1 1 1 1 9 11 11 11 11 7 117 9 1177 17 7 1 1 1 1 1 7 1 117 9 19 1 1 11-1 1197 7 1 1 1 1 1 7 1197 1 1 9 1 1 Billions of $ Exports Billions of $ Imports Nonfarm Output per Hour Nonfarm Compensation per Hour 19 1 17 1 7 11 97 171999 11 11 7 9 9 117 9 197 19 19 11 197 9 19 1 1 9 1 1117 1 9 9 1 9 71-11199 171 1 1171 7 11 1 99 1777 1 9 1 117 1 7 177 1 11 1 7 1 9 9 1 11797 179 1 117 7 1 9 1199 9 71 19 1 1 19 1 9 7 1 9 197 1 19 1 7 7 1 7 179 1 1 1-1 17 11 1 79 11 1919 9 111 1 1779 7 7 7 19 9 1 1 197-171 7 197 7 11-1 1 1717 1 7 11 1 9 191 1 7 1 1 9 1717 7 1 1 11 1977 9 9 1 7 179 9 7 179 7 71 19-7 1 7 17 1 11 191 1 1977 17 19 7 177179
National Economic Trends updated through /7/7 Household Survey Employment Thousands Change Nonfarm Payroll Employment Thousands Change Nonfarm Aggregate Hours Monthly 11 - - 17 - -11 1-177 9 9 999-7 - 9-1 19 11 1 1 11 1 1 117 7 1 19 7 17 7 119 7 19 117 7 19 7 9 1 1 9 1 1 7 1 1 11 1 11 111 19 171 7 1 9 19 1 117 7 19 11 7 9 19 1 1 1 19 7 1 1 711 1 19 71 1 1 99 1 191 1 19 1 1 11 1 1 1 9 1 17 1 1 9 111 1 191 9 1 17 1 7 1 1 11 19 177 9 1 1 1 11 19 9-7 - 1 17 17 1 1 17 1 17 97 1 11 7 1 177 1 1 Nov 97 11 1 17 17 1 19 1 7 Dec 7 1 19 19 1 19 1 7 Jan 199 17 7 111 1 1 Feb 119 19 1 11 7 1 1 Mar 1 1 1 19 9 1 1 Apr 17 7 1 1 1 1 9 1 May 17 19 1 9 19 - - 1 Jun 1 1 9 19 1 11 1 7 1 Jul 1 - - 1 1 17 1 1 Aug 11 1 1 1 17 17 9-1 -11 Sep 19 17 1 19 1 1 1 1 11 Oct 7 1 19 17 19 1 1 1 Nov 1 191 19 17 17 1 Dec 9 1717 17 19 7 7 Jan 97 1 179 1 1 17 - - 1 Feb 919 - - 1 1719 9 1 1 - - 1 Mar 1 179 17 1 1 17 1 1 Apr 7 - - 1 1771 11 1 171 - - 1 May 9 7 1 1 179 1 17 1 17 1 Jun 11 197 1 1 1797 9 1 177 1 Jul 111 - - 1 1 9 1 17-1 -11 1 Aug 79-1 - 19 9 1 177 1 11 17 Sep 7 9 9 1 11 17 1 11 17 Oct 17 - - 17 17 1 1 179 1 11 1 Nov 17 9 9 7 17 9 11 1 1 11 1
updated through /1/7 National Economic Trends Unempl Rate Retail and Food Services Sales Billions of dollars Monthly/ quarterly Industrial Production Monthly/ quarterly Treasury Yields (Percent) -mo 1-yr 7 1 1 1 19 1119 11 11 71 1 17 17 7 1 19 9 77 1117 7 79 1 999 1 1 97 11 1 1 1 7 7 19 7 1 1 1 7 7 1911 1 1 1 7 1199 1 7 9 1 7 179 1 1 79 197 1 9 7 117 1 1111 1 7 7 7 197 17 1 1 91 9 19 1 1 111919 - -1 9 7 1 119 1 17 11 9 1 1 11171 9 17 7 111 9 7 1 11 1 9 17 7 Nov 771 7 11 11 11 Dec 9 77 1 1919 1 9 7 Jan 7 9 79 9 1911 - - Feb 1 - -9 7 19 1 7 Mar 7 7 7 7 19997 1 7 Apr 7 17 1 1 71 119 9 11 99 May 9 - - 9 117-1 - 7 11 Jun 1119 9 11 79 11 Jul 9 11 17 9 7 9 9 Aug 7 17 1 1 1 9 Sep - -7 1177 - -7 1 7 Oct 19 111999 - -1 9 7 Nov 9 - - 11191 - -9 9 Dec 71 1 19 7 7 Jan 7 - - 1117 - -7 9 7 Feb 97 9 119 9 9 7 Mar 71 1 1-1 -11 9 Apr 711 - - 1119 9 19 7 9 May 779 1 1 1 191-1 -1 19 7 7 Jun 77 - -9 11 1 1 1 Jul 79 7 7 119 1 17 Aug 7717 1 9 111-1 -1 1 7 Sep 7 1 1 11 9 Oct 7 1 7 119-7 - 1 9 Nov 7 7 1 7 11919 1 7
National Economic Trends Consumer Price Monthly/ quarterly to date Consumer Price less Food and Energy Monthly/ quarterly to date updated through /1/7 Producer Price Finished Goods Monthly/ quarterly 1797 1 19 19-1 197 19 1 1 19 7 19 1 1 19 9 7 9 1 9 1 9 1 191 1 1 199 7 7 1997 1 9 9 19 9 1 19 1 9 117 1 1 1 7 19 7 7 7 1 1 9 17 7 1 199 19 7 19 7 1 9 - -1 17 1 9 19 9 7 1 7 7 9 111 7 17 - -1 19 19 7 19 7 7 99 - -1 7 1 9 91 1 7 19 77 1 7 9 1 19 1 1 1 19 19 9 1199 1 1 1 Nov 1979-7 -7 1 7-7 - Dec 197-1 - 9 9 7 Jan 199 7 7 1 1 1 1 1 Feb 1991 1 1 1-11 - 9 Mar 199 1 7 1 9 Apr 7 1 7 May 19 1 9 17 Jun 7 9 11 1 9 Jul 7 7 11-1 -1 9 Aug 9 9 9 119 7 Sep 7 - - 1 7 9 9 1-11 -119 Oct 1 - - 1 7 1 1 7-1 -1-1 Nov 19 7 1 1 1 1 1 Dec 1 1 17 11 7 9 11 7 Jan 1 1 1 1 7 1 1 - - Feb 9 91 9 7 1 1 Mar 1 7 7 9 1 7 1 1 1 Apr 999 1 9 1 9 17 May 77 7 7 99 1 1 1 17 7 7 Jun 77 7 1 1 1 7 Jul 1 1 19 9 179 7 1 Aug 77-1 -17 19 7 11 1 1-1 -171 1 Sep 9 1171 7 1 17 11 17 Oct 9 19 1 17 1 7 Nov 1 1 17 77
National Economic Trends Notes Pages, : Final Sales is gross domestic product (GDP) minus change in private inventories Advance, Preliminary, and Final GDP Growth Rates are released during the first, second, and third months of the following quarter Changes result from incorporation of more complete information Real GDP is measured in dollars The ISM (formerly Purchasing Managers ) is a weighted average of diffusion indexes for new orders, production, supplier deliveries, inventories, and employment Aggregate and Average Weekly Hours are paid hours of production and nonsupervisory employees The Inventory-Sales Ratio uses nominal (current-dollar) inventory and sales data Page : For information on how to calculate the Contribution of a component to the overall GDP growth, see the October 1999 issue of the Survey of Current Business, p 1 The sign is changed for Imports Page 7: Ten-year Treasury Yields are adjusted to constant maturity; threemonth yields are secondary market averages All s used in the yield curves are adjusted to constant maturity The -year constant maturity series was discontinued by the Treasury Department as of Feb 1, Standard and Poor s with Reinvested Dividends shows the total return: capital gains plus dividends Pages, 9: Oil (West Texas intermediate) and Natural Gas (Henry Hub) spot and futures prices are listed in the Wall Street Journal Spot prices are monthly averages of daily prices; futures prices are usually taken from the last trading day of the month Consumer Price is for all urban consumers The Consumption Chain Price is the index associated with the personal consumption expenditures component of GDP The Employment Cost (ECI) covers private nonfarm employers ECI Compensation refers to a fixed sample of jobs, while Compensation per Hour covers all workers in the nonfarm business sector in a given quarter In both cases, compensation is wages and salaries plus benefits Pages 1, 11: Effective with the May Employment Situation, the establishment survey data for employment, hours, and earnings have been converted from the 197 SIC system to the NAICS system For more information see http://wwwblsgov/ces/ Nonfarm Payroll Employment is counted in a survey of about, establishments (Current Employment Statistics) It excludes self-employed individuals and workers in private households, but double-counts individuals with more than one job The Household Survey (Current Population Survey) of about, households provides estimates of civilian employment, unemployment, labor force participation, and employment-population ratio Population is civilian, noninstitutional, 1 years and over The 9 percent confidence intervals for the unemployment (± percentage points) and change in household survey employment (± 9,) measure uncertainty due to sample size Because the household survey was changed in January 199, data prior to this date are not strictly comparable The Bureau of Labor Statistics announced several revisions to the Household Survey on Feb 7,, with the release of the January data For more information, see <wwwblsgov/cps/> The Job Openings is the number of job openings on the last business day of the month as a percent of total employment plus job openings Page 1: The Michigan Consumer Sentiment shows changes in a summary measure of consumers answers to five questions about their current and expected financial situation, expectations about future economic conditions, and attitudes about making large purchases The survey is based on a representative sample of US households Page : Gross Private Saving is the sum of personal saving, undistributed corpo profits with IVA and CCAdj (see notes for pp 1-19), and private wage accruals less disbursements Gross Government Saving is net government saving (surplus/deficit) plus consumption of fixed capital Balance on Current Account (NIPA) is net capital transfer payments to the rest of the world plus net lending or net borrowing (international trade and income flows) Pages 1, 17: Government Consumption and Investment is current expenditures on goods and services, including capital consumption (depreciation) and gross investment, as reported in the NIPAs The Unified Federal Budget Surplus/Deficit differs from NIPA Basis in four main ways: (1) NIPA excludes transactions involving existing assets; () NIPA outlays exclude government investment and include consumption of government capital, while unified budget outlays do the reverse; () NIPA accounts exclude Puerto Rico and US territories; and () various timing issues are handled differently Outlays and Receipts are from the NIPAs, except as noted Since 1977, the federal Fiscal starts on October 1 Excluded agency debt was percent of federal debt at the end of fiscal 1997 Federal Debt Held by the Public includes holdings of the Federal Reserve System and excludes holdings of the social security and other federal trust funds Federal grants in aid to state and local governments appear in both state and local receipts and federal outlays Pages 1, 19: The Trade Balance (shown on a balance of payments basis) is the difference between exports and imports of goods (merchandise) and services It is nearly identical in concept to the Net Exports component of GDP, but differs slightly in accounting details The Investment Income Balance equals income received from US-owned assets in other countries minus income paid on foreign-owned assets in the US The investment income balance is nearly identical in concept to the difference between gross national product and gross domestic product, but differs in accounting details The Current Account Balance is the trade balance plus the balance on investment income plus net unilateral transfers to the US from other countries Pages, 1: Output per Hour (Y/H), Unit Labor Cost (C/Y), and Compensation per Hour (C/H) are indexes which approximately obey the following relationship: %(Y/H) + %(C/Y) = %(C/H) with %() meaning percent changes Unit labor cost is shown on page 9 Real Compensation per Hour uses the CPI to adjust for the effects of inflation Nonfarm business accounted for about 7 percent of the value of GDP in 199, while nonfinancial corporations accounted for about percent Inventory Valuation Adjustments (IVA) remove the effect of changes in the value of existing inventories from corpo profits and proprietors income (This change in value does not correspond to current production and therefore is not part of GDP) Capital Consumption Adjustments (CCAdj) increase profits and proprietors income by the difference between estimates of economic depreciation and depreciation allowed by the tax code Components of national income not shown are rental income of persons and net interest NOTE: Most measures of economic activity are now based on the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS), which replaces the 197 Standard Industry Classification (SIC) system Sources Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), US Dept of Commerce National income and product accounts, international trade and investment data (except by country), auto and light truck sales Census Bureau, US Dept of Commerce Inventory-sales ratios, retail sales, capital goods orders, housing starts, exports and imports by country Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), US Dept of Labor All employment-related data, employment cost index, consumer and producer price indexes, unit labor cost, output per hour, compensation per hour, multifactor productivity United States Department of Treasury Unified budget receipts, outlays, deficit, debt Federal Reserve Board of industrial production, treasury yields, exchange s, capacity utilization, household debt The Survey Research Center, The University of Michigan Consumer sentiment index Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) GDP for major trading partners (not available on FRED) 7