Monthly Economic Highlights 218 www.centralbank.org.bz
List of Acronyms and Abbreviations Acronyms: BGA BSI BTB BTL CBB CDB CGA CPBL CPI EU GDP IDB MOF SIB UHS US Banana Growers Association Belize Sugar Industries Limited Belize Tourism Board Belize Telemedia Limited Caribbean Development Bank Citrus Growers Association Citrus Products of Belize Limited Consumer Price Index European Union Gross Domestic Product Inter-American Development Bank Ministry of Finance Statistical Institute of Belize Universal Health Services United States Abbreviations and Conventions: $ the Belize dollar unless otherwise stated bn billion mn million ps pound solids TC/TS ns cane ns sugar Notes: 1. Since May of 1976, the Belize dollar has been fixed the US dollar at the rate of US$1. = BZ$2.. 2. The 218 figures in this report are provisional and the figures for 217 have been revised. 3. Unless otherwise indicated, the is the source of all tables and charts. 4. Ratios GDP for 218 are based on Central Bank's forecast of annual GDP. ii
Table of Contents Summary of Economic Indicars iv Overview 1 Money and Credit 3 Real Secr Developments 6 Sugarcane and Sugar 7 Citrus 8 Banana 9 Petroleum 9 ine Exports 9 Other Domestic Exports 1 Central Government Operations 11 Central Government Domestic Debt 12 Public Secr External Debt 13 Statistical Appendix 15 Table A.1: Facrs Responsible for Money Supply Movements 15 Table A.2: Net Foreign Assets of the Banking System 15 Table A.3: Net Domestic Credit 16 Table A.4: Secral Composition of Domestic Banks' Loans and Advances 17 Table A.5: Domestic Banks' Liquidity Position and Cash Reserves 18 Table A.6: Domestic Banks' Weighted Average Interest Rates 18 Table A.7: Domestic Banks' (Rolling) Weighted Average Interest Rates 19 on New Loans and Deposits Table A.8: Tourist Arrivals 19 Table A.9: Percentage Change in Consumer Price Index Components by 2 Major Commodity Group Table A.1: Sugarcane Deliveries and Production of Sugar and Molasses 21 Table A.11: Exports of Sugar and Molasses 21 Table A.12: Citrus Deliveries and Production 22 Table A.13: Export Sales of Citrus Products 23 Table A.14: Banana Exports 23 Table A.15: ine Exports 24 Table A.16: Other Domestic Exports 24 Table A.17: Petroleum Production and Exports 24 Table A.18: Central Government Revenue and Expenditure 25 Table A.19: Central Government Domestic Debt 218 26 Table A.2: Public Secr External Debt 218 27 iii
Summary of Economic Indicars Chart I: Gross Domestic Product Growth Rate (Year-on-Year - Percentage Change) Chart II: Consumer Price Index (All Items) 6. 15.5 5. 4. 15. 14.5 14. Percent 3. 2. 1.. 13.5 13. 12.5 12. 11.5 11. -1. -2. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 216 217 218 1.5 1. Sept Dec Sept Dec Feb Apr 216 217 218 May Source: SIB Chart III: Gross International Reserves and Import Cover Source: SIB Chart IV: Current Account Balance GDP 6 55 5 6. 5. 1.5 1. $USmn 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 4. 3. 2. 1. Months of Import Coverage Percent.5. -.5-1. 1 Sept Dec Sept Dec Feb Apr May. -1.5 - - - 216 217 218 216 217 218 Gross Official Reserves (LHS) Months of Import Coverage (RHS) Current Account Balance/GDP Chart V: Domestic Banks - Deposits and Loans and Advances Chart VI: Primary and Overall Balances GDP 2,9 1. 2,7.5 2,5. 2,3 2,1 1,9 Percent -.5-1. -1.5-2. 1,7 Sept Dec Chart VII: Public Secr External Debt Chart VIII: Central Government Domestic Debt 2,55 8. 1,2 3. 2,5 75. 1, 25. 2,45 7. 8 2. 2,4 2,35 65. 2,3 6. 2,25 55. Sept Dec Sept Dec Apr May Percent 6 4 15. 1. 2 5.. Sept Dec Sept Dec Apr May Sept Dec Apr May Sept Dec Sept Dec Feb Apr May 216 217 218 216 217 218 Deposits Loans and Advances Overall Balance/GDP Sources: MOF and CBB Primary Balance/GDP Percent 216 217 218 216 217 218 External Debt Sck (LHS) External Debt/GDP (RHS) Domestic Debt Sck (LHS) Domestic Debt/GDP (RHS) iv
Overview Broad money supply (M2) expanded by.8% ($22.3mn) during the first half of 218 due a $55.2mn increase in the net foreign assets of the banking system, as net domestic credit fell by $37.7mn. The expansion in the net foreign assets was due a $64.5mn expansion in domestic banks holdings, owing proceeds from the sale of a group of banana farms Fyffes in ch and buoyant urism earnings. In contrast, Central Bank s net foreign assets declined by $9.3mn, as outflows of $12.6mn exceeded inflows of $111.3mn. The reduction in net domestic credit reflected declines of $24.6mn and $15.9mn in net lending the Central Government and the private secr, respectively, as credit other public entities rose by $2.4mn. Lending by the five largest credit unions contracted by $8.1mn, compared $7.4mn during the same period of 217. Buoyed by the increase in net foreign assets, domestic banks excess statury liquid holdings rose 48.5% above the requirement at the end of. However, an increase in domestic banks Treasury bill holdings reduced excess cash holdings from 128.1% at December 217 92.6% above the legal requirement. The 12-month (rolling) weighted average interest rate on new loans and deposits fell by 49 basis points 8.72% and 28 basis points 1.58%, respectively, when compared 217. Consequently, the weighted average spread tightened by 21 basis points 7.14% year-on-year. Merchandise export receipts contracted by 18.2% $222.mn due lower earnings from all major commodities, except for petroleum. Meanwhile, gross imports (including electricity) rose by 2.3% $942.3mn with increased spending on items in the Fuels, Lubricants and Crude Materials ($19.mn), Commercial Free Zone ($1.3mn) and Machinery, Transport and Equipment ($8.1mn) categories. Tourism remained buoyant as stay-over arrivals rose by 12.9% 242,374 visirs and cruise ship disembarkations expanded by 1.2% 566,716 visirs. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) inched up by.3% in compared May and remained unchanged on average relative the first half of 217. The stable price index reflected price declines in the Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages, Recreation and Culture, and Transport sub-indicies, which were offset by price increases in the Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas, and Other Fuels, Health and Alcoholic Beverages and Tobacco categories. 1
For the first quarter (April ) of the 218/219 fiscal year (FY), Central Government s fiscal adjustments yielded a primary surplus of 1.8% of GDP, up from.9% of GDP in the same period of the 217/218 FY and an overall surplus of 1.3% of GDP, up from.6% of GDP in the comparable period of the 217/218 FY. The improved fiscal outturn reflected a 6.5% increase in Central Government s revenue and grants, stemming from the new tax measures implemented in April, and a 3.3% reduction in tal expenditure, as the the cutback in capital spending exceeded the increase in current outlays. Over the first six months of 218, Central Government s domestic debt fell by 1.3% $1,13.2mn (26.4% of GDP), while the public secr s external debt rose by.5% $2,523.6mn (65.6% of GDP). Consequently, the tal public secr debt--gdp ratio narrowed from 95.% of GDP at December 217 92.% of GDP at the end of. 2
Money and Credit Broad money supply expanded by.8% during the first six months of 218, due a $55.2mn increase in the net foreign assets of the banking system, as net domestic credit contracted by $37.7mn. Chart 1.1: Net Foreign Assets and Net Domestic Credit of the Banking System 1,4 1,2 1, 2,7 2,6 2,5 8 2,4 The net foreign assets of domestic banks rose 6 2,3 by $64.5mn $295.3mn over the six-month 4 2,2 period, following a $6.6mn dip in. The 2 2,1 year--date upswing stemmed from the steady growth in urism earnings and proceeds from sale of a group of banana farms Fyffes in Sept Dec Sept Dec 216 217 218 Net Foreign Assets (LHS) Net Domestic Credit (RHS) 2, ch. In contrast, Central Bank s net foreign assets increased by $4.7mn in, but declined by $9.3mn $619.3mn over the year date, as foreign currency inflows were exceeded by outflows. Foreign currency inflows declined by 47.8% $111.3mn due lower loan disbursement proceeds, sugar export receipts and foreign currency proceeds from banks. Foreign currency outflows fell by a disproportionate margin of 25.3% $12.6mn, with 86.4% of the amount allocated Government mainly for debt servicing. Consequently, the gross official international reserves dipped from the equivalent of 4. months of merchandise imports in December 217 3.9 months in 218. Table 1.1: Central Bank's Foreign Asset Flows - 217 Chart 1.2: Domestic Banks' Net Foreign Assets - 218 Total Inflows 213.2 111.3 Loan Disbursements 18.8 46.2 Sugar Receipts 42. 34.6 Banks 24.1.8 Other 38.2 29.7 Total Outflows 161.4 12.6 Central Government 117.6 14.3 Banks 16.9. Other 26.8 16.3 35 2 Lower net lending Central Government 3 15 and the private secr were responsible for the decline in net domestic credit, since net lending other public entities rose. Net credit Central Government contracted by $24.6mn in, deepening the year--date decline $42.2mn. The overall contraction reflected $mm 25 2 15 1 5 - Sept Dec Sept Dec 216 217 218 1 5-5 -1 Percent Central Bank s sale of $1.mn in Treasury Domestic Banks' Foreign Assets (LHS) Monthly % Change (RHS) 3
notes Belize Social Security Board in, a $24.7mn increase in Central Government s deposits with banks and a $13.mn decline in Government s overdraft balance with the Central Bank $34.3mn, which sod at 4.2% of the statury requirement. Meanwhile, borrowing by other public secr entities grew by $2.4mn, most of which was disbursed Belize Telemedia Limited fund its projects. Notwithstanding a $19.9mn expansion in, credit the private secr contracted by $15.9mn over the first half of 218. The downward trend was largely due loans extinguished from the proceeds of the banana farms sold in ch, which caused lending for banana production plummet by $58.5mn. However, this was partly offset by new disbursements for distribution ($7.7mn), construction ($1.9mn) and manufacturing ($35.8mn), with the latter reflecting the onshoring of a sizeable loan a sugar processor. Write-offs talled $28.4mn, down markedly from the $61.2mn recorded during the same period last year. Chart 1.3: Change in Domestic Banks' Loans - 218 Manufacturing Utilities Construction Distribution Other Mining & Exploration Real Estate Transportation ine Products Personal Agriculture -8. -6. -4. -2.. 2. 4. 6. Chart 1.4: Loans for Top Five Credit Unions 6 59 58 57 56 55 54 53 52 Sept Dec Sept Dec 216 217 218 Net lending by the five largest credit unions contracted by $8.1mn, compared $7.4mn in the first half of 217. Repayments, coupled Chart 1.5: Excess Statury Liquidity with write-offs on loans for personal purposes 6 ($1.8mn), home improvement ($6.mn), 5 agricultural production ($5.4mn) and 4 residential construction ($3.5mn), exceeded 3 increased lending for commercial real estate ($9.6mn), merchandise trade ($1.9mn) and 2 1 land acquisition ($1.7mn). Sept Dec Sept Dec Driven by the upturn in foreign assets, the 216 217 218 excess statury liquid assets of domestic banks Excess Statury Liquidity Excess Cash Reserves 4
expanded by $3.9mn $299.9mn and sod at 48.5% above the legal requirement at the end of. However, domestic banks excess cash holdings fell by $72.2mn $211.8mn (92.6% above the requirement) largely due additional Treasury bill purchases over the period. The 12-month (rolling) weighted average interest rate on new loans declined by six basis points at the end of 8.72%, relative the previous month, and by 49 basis points, compared 217. For the latter, rate declines on commercial loans and personal loans of 65 and 64 basis points, respectively, outweighed rate increases on loans for residential construction and other purposes of 44 and two basis points, respectively. Percent Chart 1.6: Domestic Banks' Weighted (Rolling) Average Interest Rates on New Loans 12. 1. 8. 6. 4. 2.. 3. 2.5-17 Sept-17 Dec-17-18 -18 Personal Loans Commercial Loans Residential Construction Other Weighted Average Lending Rate Chart 1.7: Domestic Banks' Weighted (Rolling) Average Interest Rates on Deposits On a similar downward trend, the 12-month 2. (rolling) weighted average interest rate on new deposits contracted by six basis point during the month, and by 28 basis points 1.58%, relative 217. Rates declined across all deposit categories, except for savings, which Percent 1.5 1..5. -17 Sept-17 Dec-17-18 -18 increased by 44 basis points year-on-year. Concurrently, rates on savings/chequing, time Demand Savings/Chequing Savings Time Weighted Average Deposit Rate and demand deposits declined by 48 basis points, 1 basis points and one basis point, respectively. As a result, the weighted average spread tightened by 21 basis points 7.14%. 5
Real Secr Developments Output of all other major commodities fell during the first half of 218, except for sugar and conch. Between uary and, stay-over urist arrivals rose by 12.9% 242,374 visirs, supported by increased air capacity, sustained marketing efforts and heightened economic growth in key source markets. Meanwhile, cruise ship disembarkations expanded by 1.2% 566,716 visirs, as calls the Belize City and Harvest Caye ports rose by 18 ships 216. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) inched up by.3% in relative May, and on average, was unchanged relative the same period of 217. For the latter, higher costs were recorded for house rent and liquefied petroleum gas, in Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas, and Other Fuels (.4%), as well as for outpatient clinic services and alcoholic beverages in the Health (2.4%) and Alcoholic Beverages and Tobacco (4.6%) sub-indicies, respectively. The inflationary pressure was subdued by price reductions for fresh meats and select fruits and vegetables in Food and Non- Alcoholic Beverages (.4%), cultural services in Recreation and Culture (1.8%) and airfare in Transport (.6%). Merchandise export receipts for the first half of 218 contracted by 18.2% $222.mn due lower earnings from all major commodities, except petroleum. Gross imports (including electricity) rose by 2.3% $942.3mn, as higher expenditure on Fuels, Lubricants, and Crude Materials Table 2.1: Production of Main Domestic Exports Sources: BTB and CBB - 217 Chart 2.1: Tourist Arrivals Table 2.2: Main Domestic Exports - 218 Sugarcane Deliveries (long ns) 1,498,51 1,532,424 Sugar (long ns) 161,328 161,926 Molasses (long ns) 52,45 48,155 Bananas (metric ns) 42,43 36,19 Citrus Deliveries (boxes) 3,332,773 2,496,91 Citrus Juices ( ps) 19,775 14,343 ine Exports ( lbs) 1,527 976 Petroleum (barrels) 192,272 156,47 Sources: BSI, Santander Group, BGA, CPBL, Geology & Petroleum Department Visirs 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, - 216-217 - 218 Stay-over Visirs Cruise Ship Arrivals - - 217 218 Sugar 17.6 73.1 Molasses 5.8 4.8 Citrus 35.6 34.7 Bananas 47.3 38.4 Petroleum 11.3 15.8 ine Exports 17.2 14.7 Other Domestic Exports 46.5 4.5 Total 271.3 222. Sources: BSI, BGA, CPBL, SIB, Geology and Petroleum Department 6
($19.mn), Commercial Free Zone ($1.3mn) and Machinery, Transport and Equipment ($8.1mn) outstripped declines in Manufactured Goods and Other Manufactures ($11.6mn), Oils, Fats, and Chemicals ($4.3mn) and Other Goods ($.7mn). Sugarcane and Sugar In the North, 217/218 crop year ended on 27 with sugarcane deliveries down by 1.2% 1,254,856 long ns due excessive rainfall early in the crop year. Sugar production contracted by 2.1% 138,86 long ns, on account of a 3.2% reduction in facry time efficiency, while cane purity improved marginally by.1% 87.2%. Consequently, the ns cane ns sugar (TC/TS) ratio deteriorated by 1.% 9.4 from 8.95 in the previous crop year. Out West, the 218 crop year also coincidentally ended on 27. In contrast, sugarcane deliveries rose by 13.9% 425,699 long ns, even though this harvesting period was three weeks shorter than last year's due inclement weather. Sugar production rose by a smaller margin of 11.2% 36,535 long ns, precipitated by a 17.2% reduction in facry time efficiency and a.6% dip in cane purity 83.8%. As a result, the TC/TS ratio for the crop year weakened by 2.3% 11.64. When combined, sugarcane deliveries expanded by 2.2% 1,68,555 long ns, while sugar production rose by.4% a recordhigh 175,34 long ns. Adverse weather and slippages in facry performance caused the industry s TC/TS ratio worsen by 1.8% 9.6. Total molasses production contracted by 6.5% 51,669 long ns. Table 2.3: Gross Imports by Standard International Trade Classification (1) - - - 216 217 218 Food, Beverages and Tobacco 133.7 128.2 127.9 Fuels, Lubricants and Crude Materials 124.2 152.5 171.5 Of which: Electricity 13.1 26.6 19.1 Oils, Fats and Chemicals 93.5 97.8 93.5 Manufactured Goods and Other Manufactures 192.5 22.2 19.7 Machinery, Transport and Equipment 239. 182.6 19.7 Other Goods 1.7 2.1 1.5 Export Processing Zones 28.2 2.7 21.4 Commercial Free Zone 139.5 134.8 145.1 Total 952.4 92.9 942.3 Source:SIB (1) Imports are valued at cost, insurance and freight Sources: BSI and Santander Group Boxes (') Long Tons 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Source: CPBL Chart 2.2: Sugar Exports - 216-217 - 218 Export Volume (LHS) Export Revenue (RHS) Chart 2.3: Monthly Citrus Deliveries Oct Nov Dec Feb Apr May 216/217 217/218 12. 1. 8. 6. 4. 2. 7.
For the first half of the year, sugar exports contracted by 2.5% 111,45 long ns in volume and by 32.% in value $73.1mn, compared the same period of 217. The disproportionate reduction in earnings reflected a 29.% reduction in the average unit price on the European Union (EU) market US$.15 per pound following the abolition of the EU sugar quota system in September 217. Notwithstanding, 98.5% of the tal export volume was shipped the EU, while the balance was shared between CARICOM (1.4%) and Canada (.1%). Boxes of Fruit 3,5, 3,, 2,5, 2,, 1,5, Chart 2.4: Citrus Deliveries 1,, 5, 215/216 216/217 217/218 Grapefruit Deliveries Orange Deliveries Sources: CGA and CPBL Citrus The 217/218 citrus crop year ended on 13 with tal citrus deliveries down by 22.1% 2,638,884 boxes, as orange deliveries plummeted by 24.% 2,433,49 boxes, while grapefruit deliveries rose by 1.4% 25,475 boxes. Fruit output was hampered by heavy rains at the beginning of the harvest period, the resurgence of citrus leprosis and citrus greening. In tandem with deliveries, tal citrus juice production fell by 25.% 15.mn pound solids (ps) for the crop year, as orange juice production contracted by 26.3% 14.2mn ps and grapefruit juice production increased by 8.4%.8mn ps. Lower fruit quality resulted in a 3.7% loss in the average juice outturn per box of fruit. Citrus exports dipped by only 1.6% 1.8mn ps for the year date, while receipts fell by 2.7% $34.7mn. The latter was attributable a 9.8% reduction in the average unit price for orange concentrate on the US market due Pound Solids (mn) 16. 14. 12. 1. 8. 6. 4. 2.. Source: CPBL Chart 2.5: Citrus Juice Export Volume and Revenue - 216-217 - 218 Orange (LHS) Grapefruit (LHS) Export Revenue (RHS) 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 8
a temporary glut stemming from a Brazilian bumper crop in the previous crop year. 5 Chart 2.6: Banana Exports 5 Banana Banana exports contracted by 14.7% 36,19 metric ns, as heavy rain slowed production in the first quarter of the year. Export receipts fell by 18.8% $38.4mn, reflecting a 4.8% reduction in the average unit price. Petroleum Crude oil extraction fell by 18.7% 156,47 barrels during the six-month period, with the average daily extraction rate down by 198 barrels 864 barrels per day. Oil production at Spanish Lookout continued its natural decline, falling by 19.2% 154,424 barrels, while field testing at Never Delay yielded an additional 1,984 barrels of oil. Petroleum export volume was down by.6% 133,48 barrels, but export receipts rose by 39.9% $15.8mn due a rally in the average price per barrel from US$42.16 US$59.32 over the reporting period. Metric Tons (') 4 3 2 1-216 - 217-218 Export Volume (LHS) Export Revenue (RHS) Source: BGA Barrels (') Chart 2.7: Petroleum Exports 25 2 15 1 5-216 - 217-218 Export Volume (LHS) Export Revenue (RHS) Source: Geology and Petroleum Department 4 3 2 1 2 15 1 5 ine Exports ine exports declined by 36.1% 1.mn Chart 2.8: ine Export Volumes pounds, as an 11.7% increase in conch sales was outweighed by lower exports of shrimp, lobster and fish by 66.7%,.5% and 6.7%, respectively. While the fall-off in lobster and farmed fish were attributed inclement weather during the first quarter, the plunge in farmed shrimp exports reflected continued difficulties arrest the Early Mortality Syndrome outbreak. Ameliorated by higher prices for lobster and conch, marine export receipts were down by 14.5% $14.7mn. Pounds (mn).8.7.6.5.4.3.2.1. Lobster Shrimp Conch Fish - 216-217 - 218 Sources: SIB and CBB 9
Other Domestic Products Revenue from other domestic products contracted by 12.9% $4.5mn due lower receipts for orange oil ($3.3mn), black-eyed peas ($2.mn) and sawn wood ($1.4mn), which outstripped upticks in earnings from grapefruit oil ($.7mn), pepper sauce ($.6mn) and animal feed ($.3mn). 5 4 3 2 1 Chart 2.9: Other Domestic Exports - 216-217 - 218 Other Domestic Exports Source: SIB 1
Central Government Operations Central Government Operations For the first quarter (April ) of the 218/219 fiscal year, Central Government s revenue and grants rose by 6.5% $3.4mn (25.4% of budgeted receipts), while tal expenditure fell by 4.3% $249.9mn (2.7% of budgeted outlays). Stronger fiscal consolidation efforts resulted in an increase in Central Government s primary surplus from.9% of GDP in the first quarter of the previous FY 1.7% of GDP and an expansion of the overall surplus from.6% of GDP in the first quarter of the previous FY 1.3% of GDP. Revenue and grants rose by $18.3mn, buoyed by increased tax collections arising from the new gross sales tax, excise tax and social fee measures implemented in April, as grants remained minimal at $.5mn and non-tax receipts contracted by 14.9%. Tax revenue grew by $23.6mn (9.7%), driven by higher collections on goods and services and income and profits, while receipts from import duties and property taxes fell. On the other hand, non-tax revenues declined by $5.6mn due lower receipts from the international business companies and ship registries. Expenditure fell by $11.3mn, as a modest 2.2% expansion in current outlays was easily offset by a 48.1% reduction in capital spending. Current outlays grew by $4.9mn $231.9mn, driven by increases of $1.6mn and $3.3mn for wages and salaries and domestic interest payments, respectively. Meanwhile, capital expenditure shrunk by $16.1mn $18.mn, with 36.6% of the tal spent on infrastructural projects. Chart 3.1: Central Government Operations Sources: MOF and CBB estimates Chart 3.2: Central Government Current Revenue Apr - 217 Apr - 218 Sources: MOF and CBB estimates 12 1 8 6 4 2 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. - Current Account Balance Property Income International Trade and Transactions Taxes on Goods and Services Taxes on Property Income and Profits Chart 3.3: Central Government Current Expenditure Wages and Salaries Other Licences Pensions Sources: MOF and CBB estimates Primary Balance Apr - 217 Apr - 218 5 1 15 2 Goods and Services Interest Payments Apr - 217 Apr - 218 Subsidies and Current Transfers 11 Overall Balance
The overall fiscal balance recorded a surplus of $5.5mn, as domestic financing fell by $69.3mn and external funding rose by $16.4mn. Central Government s debt dependency ratio (new borrowings expenditure) sod at 2.8%, which was marginally above the international threshold of 2.%. Central Government Domestic Debt Central Government s domestic debt fell by 1.3% $1,13.2mn during the first six months of 218. The $13.3mn decline reflected a $13.mn contraction in Central Government s overdraft balance with the Central Bank and amortization payments of $.6mn on various loans, which outstripped $.2mn in supplier s credit for dredging services by the Fort Street Tourism Village. Interest payments summed $17.8mn. The Central Bank received the largest share, comprising of $2.4mn on short-term credit by way of the overdraft and Treasury bills, as well as $4.9mn on longer-term Treasury notes. Domestic banks and non-bank entities were paid $4.4mn and $5.9mn, respectively, on their holdings of securities. In securities trading, domestic banks purchased $44.mn in Treasury bills from the Central Bank and $.9mn from non-bank entities. Meanwhile, the Central Bank sold $8.3mn worth of Treasury notes domestic banks and firms. On the primary market, Central Bank acquired $16.mn in oneyear Treasury notes replace an equivalent amount of one-year Floating Rate Treasury Notes that matured in May. Debt Sck 1,2 1, 8 6 4 2 Chart 3.4: Central Government Domestic Debt - 216-217 - 218 Central Bank (LHS) Other (LHS) Domestic Banks (LHS) Interest Payments (RHS) 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 Interest Payments 12
At the end of, domestic banks held the largest share of Central Government s domestic debt, as it rose from 39.% at the end of 217 42.5%. Concurrently, the portion held by the Central Bank shrank from 37.8% 33.5%. The share held by the non-bank entities also rose from 23.2% 24.1%. 47 46 45 44 43 42 41 Chart 3.5: External Debt Service 4 Public Secr External Debt During the first half of the year, the public secr s external debt rose by.5% ($11.7mn) 39 38 37-216 - 217-218 $2,523.6mn, as disbursements of $52.8mn Principal Interest outweighed principal payments of $4.1mn and downward valuation adjustments of $1.mn. The latter was due the appreciation of the US dollar against the SDR, the Kuwait dinar and Euro. New borrowings from bilateral and multilateral sources amounted $29.5mn and $23.3mn, respectively. Disbursements from bilateral credirs included $9.5mn from the Government of Venezuela under the Venezuelan Petrocaribe Agreement initiative and $2.mn from the Republic of China (ROC)/Taiwan for budget support. In the case of multilateral lenders, Caribbean Development Bank (CDB) disbursed $1.9mn Central Government (mainly for rehabilitation of the Philip S.W. Goldson Highway and funding for Social Investment Fund programmes), $.3mn the Belize Electricity Limited and $1.mn the Development Finance Corporation (DFC). The Inter-American Development Bank allotted $8.3mn for the rehabilitation of the George Price Highway and for the climate resilience project. Central Government amortized $38.2mn, of which $26.3mn was paid multilateral Chart 3.6: Public Secr External Debt 1,2 1, 8 6 4 2-216 - 217-218 Bilateral Multilateral Bonds 13
credirs and $11.8mn went ROC/Taiwan. Meanwhile, loan repayments by the nonfinancial and financial public secr amounted $1.5mn and $.5mn, respectively. Interest and other payments summed $42.mn, of which $26.mn was paid on the 234 bond in February. 14
Statistical Appendix Table A.1: Facrs Responsible for Money Supply Movements (1) Position as at 218 May 218 218 Changes During Dec 217 218 Dec 216 217 Net Foreign Assets 914.6-1.9 55.2 69.3 Central Bank 619.3 4.7-9.3 54.6 Domestic Banks 295.3-6.6 64.5 14.7 Net Domestic Credit 2,577.5-1.7-37.7-181.5 Central Government (Net) 548.9-24.6-42.2-163.4 Other Public Secr 27. 3. 2.4-3.7 Private Secr 2,1.6 19.9-15.9-14.4 Central Bank Foreign Liabilities (Long-term) 5.3 -.4 -.6 1.7 Other Items (Net) 481.2 9.3-4.2-31. Money Supply (M2) 2,96.6-12.5 22.3-82.9 (1) Transactions associated with the Universal Health Services (UHS) loan with the Belize Bank Limited are not included in this table. Table A.2: Net Foreign Assets of the Banking System Position as at 218 May 218 218 Changes During Dec 217 218 Dec 216 217 Net Foreign Assets of the Banking System 914.6-1.9 55.2 69.3 Net Foreign Assets of the Central Bank 619.3 4.7-9.3 54.6 Central Bank Foreign Assets 621.2 5. -9.1 51.8 Central Bank Foreign Liabilities (Demand) 1.9.3.2-2.8 Net Foreign Assets of Domestic Banks 295.3-6.6 64.5 14.7 Domestic Banks Foreign Assets 39.4.2 73.5 13.9 Domestic Banks Foreign Liabilities (Short-Term) 14.1 6.8 9. -.8 15
Table A.3: Net Domestic Credit Position as at 218 May 218 218 Changes During Dec 217 218 Dec 216 217 Total Credit Central Government 68.4-12.4-17.5 97.2 From Central Bank 339. -13.5-49.2 39.6 Loans and Advances 34.3-3.5-13. 6. Government Securities (1) 34.7-1. -36.2 33.6 From Domestic Banks 341.4 1.1 31.7 57.6 Loans and Advances 2.6 1. 1.4-1.5 Government Securities 338.8.1 3.3 59.1 Of which: Treasury bills (2) 181.6.1 44.9-35. Treasury notes 157.2. -14.6 94.1 Other.... Less Central Government Deposits 131.5 12.2 24.7 26.6 With Central Bank 1.9 5.1 12.8 26.4 With Domestic Banks 3.6 7.1 11.9.2 Net Credit Central Government 548.9-24.6-42.2-163.4 Credit Other Public Secr 27. 3. 2.4-3.7 From Central Bank.... From Domestic Banks 27. 3. 2.4-3.7 Of which: Local Government 2..4.2 -.4 Public Financial Institutions.... Public Utilities 2.7 3.6 2.3-1.1 Other Statury Bodies 1.7-1. -.1-2.2 Securities 2.6... Plus Credit the Private Secr 2,1.6 19.9-15.9-14.4 Loans and Advances 2,1.2 19.9-15.9-14.4 Securities.4... Net Domestic Credit of the Banking System (3) 2,577.7-1.5-37.5-181.5 (1) Includes Central Bank s holdings of Government Treasury bills and Treasury notes. (2) Treasury bill holdings reported by domestic banks reflect a mix of par and market values. (3) Values may not equal tal due rounding. 16
Table A.4: Secral Composition of Domestic Banks' Loans and Advances Position as at 218 May 218 218 Changes During Dec 217 218 Dec 216 217 PRIMARY SECTOR 29..2-68.3 9.3 Agriculture 173.1.4-67.3 25.1 Sugar 85. -.2-2.6 7.6 Citrus 14.8.2.1-2.5 Bananas 22.8.5-58.5 13.6 Other 5.5 -.1-6.3 6.4 ine Products 31.6.3-2. -1.6 Forestry.7..2 -.3 Mining and Exploration 3.6 -.5.8-13.9 SECONDARY SECTOR 689.3 11.3 69.7-11.7 Manufacturing 7.6-2.7 35.8 6.7 Building and Construction 582.2 7.8 1.9-18.7 Utilities 36.5 6.2 23..3 TERTIARY SECTOR 691.7 11.8 1.9-4.6 Transport 57.3 -.2. -1.1 Tourism 117.9 -.1 1.7-11.2 Distribution 166. 6.1 7.7 9.4 Real Estate 291.4 5.5.5 6.3 Professional Services 48.9 -.1-1.2-1.2 Other (1) 1.2.6 2.2-6.8 PERSONAL LOANS 434.1.7-6.4-12.5 TOTAL 2,24.1 24. 5.9-19.5 (1) Includes government services, financial insitutions and entertainment. 17
Table A.5: Domestic Banks' Liquidity Position and Cash Reserves Position as at 218 May 218 218 Changes During Dec 217 218 Dec 216 217 Holdings of Approved Liquid Assets 918.7-3.5 49.9-176.4 Notes and Coins 86.3-1.4 1.8.2 Balances with Central Bank 441.3-11.7-66.5-161.6 Money at Call and Foreign Balances (due 9 days) 195.8-1.8 12.5.2 Central Government Securities maturing within 9 days (1) 186.7 26. 27.8-2. Other Approved Assets 8.6-5.6-24.7 4.8 Required Liquid Assets 618.8-2.9 19. -6.9 Excess/(Deficiency) Liquid Assets 299.9 -.6 3.9-169.5 Daily Average Holdings of Cash Reserves 44.5-13.2-65.2-157.4 Required Cash Reserves 228.7-1.1 7. -2.6 Excess/(Deficiency) Cash Reserves 211.8-12.1-72.2-154.8 Actual Securities Balances (2) 181.7. 45. -35. Excess/(Deficiency) Securities 181.7. 45. -35. (1) Four week average of domestic banks Treasury bill holdings. (2) Face value of domestic banks Treasury bill holdings at the end of the month. Table A.6: Domestic Banks' Weighted Average Interest Rates Position as at 218 May 218 218 Changes During Dec 217 218 Percent Dec 216 217 Weighted Lending Rates Personal Loans 1.54 -.3 -.77 -.25 Commercial Loans 9.3 -.1 -.9 -.14 Residential Construction 7.11.18.12 -.28 Other 6.82..9 -.39 Weighted Average 9.2 -.3 -.14 -.17 Weighted Deposit Rates Demand.1... Savings/Chequing.49 -. -. -.27 Savings 2.71.1.21 -.2 Time 1.99 -.2 -.9 -.8 Weighted Average 1.23..2 -.5 Weighted Average Spread 7.97 -.3 -.16 -.12 18
Table A.7: Domestic Banks' (Rolling) Weighted Average Interest Rates on New Loans and Deposits Twelve Month Rolling Averages at 218 May 218 217 Monthly Change 218 over May 218 Percent Annual Change 218 over 217 Weighted Lending Rates Personal Loans 9.7 9.71 1.35 -.1 -.65 Commercial Loans 8.46 8.46 9.1. -.65 Residential Construction 7.16 7.19 6.72 -.3.44 Other 6.41 6.44 6.39 -.2.2 Weighted Average 8.72 8.78 9.21 -.6 -.49 Weighted Deposit Rates Demand...1. -.1 Savings/Chequing.69.79 1.17 -.1 -.49 Savings 2.46 2.44 2.2.2.44 Time 1.9 1.97 2. -.7 -.1 Weighted Average 1.58 1.64 1.86 -.6 -.28 Weighted Average Spread 7.14 7.14 7.35. -.21 Table A.8: Tourist Arrivals - 217-218 Air 179,59 23,79 Land 3,985 36,76 Sea 4,246 2,589 Stay-over Visirs 214,74 242,374 Cruise Ship Disembarkations 514,94 566,716 Sources: BTB and CBB 19
Table A.9: Percentage Change in the Consumer Price Index Components by Major Commodity Group Major Commodity Weights May 218 218 218 over May 218 % Change YTD 218 over YTD 217 Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages 195 14.5 14.8.3 -.4 Alcoholic Beverages and Tobacco 17 16.7 17.2.5 4.6 Clothing and Footwear 83 97.6 97.7.1 -.2 Housing, Water, Electricty, Gas, and Other Fuels 265 13.9 13.9..4 Furnishing, Household Equipment, and Routine Household Maintenance 69 11.4 11.5.1.3 Health 41 117.2 117.2. 2.4 Transport 136 11.1 112.6 2.2 -.6 Communication 33 11. 1.7 -.3.5 Recreation and Culture 69 14.3 14. -.2-1.8 Education 32 13.3 13.3. -.5 Restaurants and Hotels 7 12.1 12.1 -. -.3 Miscellaneous Goods and Services 52 14.2 15.6 1.4.9 All Items 1, 14.7 15..3. Source: SIB 2
Table A.1: Sugarcane Deliveries and Production of Sugar and Molasses 217 218 Dec - 216/217 Dec - 217/218 Deliveries of Sugarcane (long ns) 22,626 234,153 1,643,85 1,68,555 Sugar Processed (long ns) 2,458 16,65 174,67 175,34 Molasses Processed (long ns) 8,585 5,962 55,276 51,669 Performance Facry Time Efficiency (%) 9.9 92.2 95.2 9.2 Cane Purity (%) 83.2 83.7 86.4 86.3 Cane/Sugar 1.8 14.1 9.4 9.6 Source: BSI and Santander Group Table A.11: Exports of Sugar and Molasses 217 218-217 - 218 Volume (long ns) Value ($ ) Volume (long ns) Value ($ ) Volume (long ns) Value ($ ) Volume (long ns) Value ($ ) Sugar 1,966 12,725 28,826 18,21 114,263 17,557 111,45 73,141 E.U. 28,486 17,834 12,7 94,92 19,767 71,384 USA 1,868 12,611 1,868 12,611 Caricom 98 114 321 337 673 819 1,56 1,664 Other 2 3 22 34 79 93 Molasses 2,854 69 13,313 2,143 27,814 5,812 29,82 4,773 Sources: BSI and Santander Group 21
Table A.12: Citrus Deliveries and Production Deliveries (boxes) 217 218 Oct - 216/217 Oct - 217/218 Orange 186,789 99,869 3,2,843 2,433,49 Grapefruit 186,16 25,475 Total 186,789 99,869 3,386,949 2,638,884 Concentrate Produced (ps) Orange 1,324,222 695,754 19,21,381 13,918,12 Grapefruit 73,73 778,838 Total 1,324,222 695,754 19,752,84 14,696,85 Not from concentrate (ps) Orange 225,567 268,242 Grapefruit 2,46 35,637 Total 246,27 33,879 Pulp (pounds) Orange 19,392 137,376 2,43,232 1,61,352 Grapefruit 5,936 13,88 Total 19,392 137,376 2,49,168 1,714,232 Oil Produced (pounds) Orange 82, 47,6 1,256, 89,6 Grapefruit 31,1 22,6 Total 82, 47,6 1,287,1 832,2 Source: CPBL 22
Table A.13: Export Sales of Citrus Products 217 218-217 - 218 Pound Pound Pound Pound Solids ( ) Value ($ ) Solids ( ) Value ($ ) Solids ( ) Value ($ ) Solids ( ) Value ($ ) Citrus Concentrates U.S.A. Orange 296 685 1,261 3,511 5,1 15,194 5,637 15,414 Grapefruit Caribbean Orange 829 3,8 587 2,217 3,543 13,59 3,625 13,549 Grapefruit 36 134 4 24 27 773 144 764 Europe Orange 853 2,363 214 67 1,698 4,676 911 2,849 Grapefruit 62 23 62 223 398 1,431 262 1,22 Other Orange 68 225 Grapefruit 6 221 9 331 132 714 Sub-Total (1) 2,136 6,712 2,128 6,646 1,947 35,465 1,78 34,537 Orange 1,979 6,127 2,62 6,398 1,252 32,93 1,242 32,36 Grapefruit 157 584 67 248 695 2,535 538 2,5 Not-From-Concentrate Sub-Total 6,172 33,41 5 27 31 166 26 133 Orange 5,28 27,67 4 22 26 135 22 11 Grapefruit 964 5,433 1 5 5 3 4 23 Total Citrus Juices 8,38 39,752 2,134 6,673 1,977 35,63 1,85 34,67 Pulp (pounds ) Total (1) 113,633 96,14 27 22 459 37 1,217 925 Orange 113,633 96,14 2 2 459 37 1,11 843 Grapefruit 25 2 16 82 Source: CPBL (1) Values may not be equal tal due rounding. Table A.14: Banana Exports 217 218-217 - 218 Volume (metric ns) 5,135 5,634 42,43 36,19 Value ($ ) 5,148 5,367 47,34 38,414 Source: BGA 23
Table A.15: ine Exports - 217-218 Volume ( pounds) Value ($ ) Volume ( pounds) Value ($ ) Lobster 357 7,11 355 8,54 Shrimp 674 5,842 224 912 Conch 336 4,75 376 5,237 Other Fish 16 27 21 43 Total 1,527 17,225 976 14,731 Source: SIB Table A.16: Other Domestic Exports - 217-218 Other Domestic Exports ($ ) 46,56 4,493 Of which: Pepper Sauce 1,825 2,386 Red Kidney Beans 4,197 4,384 Orange Oil 9,315 6,12 Grapefruit Oil 684 1,43 Animal Feed 9,39 9,717 Source: SIB Table A.17: Petroleum Production and Exports 217 218-217 - 218 Crude Oil Production Never Delay (Barrels) 439 31 1,1 1,984 Spanish Lookout (Barrels) 3,864 24,17 191,172 154,424 Crude Oil Export Volume (Barrels) 133,866 133,48 Value ($ ) 11,286 15,784 Source: Petroleum and Geology Department 24
Table A.18: Central Government Revenue and Expenditure Approved Budget 218/219 217 217 218 218 P Apr 217 217 Apr 218 218 P $ Fiscal YTD as % of Budget TOTAL REVENUE & GRANTS (1+2+3) 1,183,327 543,217 598,376 282,64 3,357 25.4% 1). Current Revenue 1,134,915 529,84 578,655 281,275 299,336 26.4% Tax Revenue 1,22,58 478,139 515,9 243,912 267,546 26.2% Income and Profits 277,322 136,8 145,79 67,18 74,47 26.7% Taxes on Property 6,241 4,224 3,662 2,9 1,655 26.5% Taxes on Goods and Services 568,542 259,611 287,98 133,589 151,68 26.7% International Trade and Transactions 17,296 78,225 77,739 41,125 4,236 23.6% Non-Tax Revenue 112,335 5,945 63,566 37,363 31,789 28.3% Property Income 3,21 2,95 16,232 1,55 6,76 22.3% Licences 16,947 1,33 12,639 5,653 6,75 35.8% Other 65,367 37,962 34,695 3,25 19,8 29.1% 2). Capital Revenue 3,31 1,71 975 442 529 16.% 3). Grants 45,111 13,62 18,747 347 492 1.1% TOTAL EXPENDITURE (1+2) 1,28,717 598,545 582,115 261,133 249,88 2.7% 1). Current Expenditure 1,51,354 496,199 515,82 226,946 231,853 22.1% Wages and Salaries 431,681 29,218 215,535 17,238 18,89 25.2% Pensions 91,428 44,612 43,826 23,631 22,666 24.8% Goods and Services 238,375 15,237 112,75 43,252 43,83 18.4% Interest Payments on Public Debt 111,91 55,145 58,547 12,49 15,741 14.1% Subsidies and Current Transfers 177,968 81,986 85,161 4,417 4,88 22.9% 2). Capital Expenditure 157,364 12,346 66,295 34,187 18,27 11.5% Capital II (Local Sources) 61,921 56,466 28,227 12,46 11,298 18.2% Capital III (Foreign Sources) 93,144 44,254 37,491 21,55 6,151 6.6% Capital Transfer and Net Lending 2,299 1,625 578 591 578 25.1% CURRENT BALANCE 83,561 32,885 62,835 54,329 67,483 8.8% PRIMARY BALANCE 86,511 (183) 74,88 33,34 66,217 76.5% OVERALL BALANCE (25,39) (55,328) 16,261 2,931 5,477-198.8% Primary Balance less grants 41,4 (13,245) 56,61 32,993 65,725 158.8% Overall Balance less grants (7,52) (68,39) (2,486) 2,584 49,984-7.9% FINANCING 25,39 55,328 (16,261) (2,931) (5,477) Domestic Financing (14,232) (8,73) (58,823) (69,324) Central Bank (22,875) (14,137) (263,66) (71,172) Net Borrowing 39,654 (58,452) (15,423) (36,77) Change in Deposits (26,528) (45,685) (248,238) (35,94) Commercial Banks 58,548 35,992 72,383 (5,331) Net Borrowing 58,714 17,996 65,752 7,274 Change in Deposits (166) 29,924 6,631 (12,65) International Banks 1,8 (11,928) 1,52 (36) Other Domestic Financing 147,86 131,43 7,538 Financing Abroad 69,642 64,949 43,675 16,4 Disbursements 114,35 13,398 69,2 37,37 Amortization (44,393) 51,552 (25,344) (2,97) Nationalization of BTL Other (1) (81) (1,137) (5,784) 2,448 Sources: CBB and MOF P - Provisional 25
Table A.19: Central Government Domestic Debt 218 Disbursed Outstanding Debt 31/12/17 R Disbursement/ New Issue of Securities TRANSACTIONS THROUGH JUNE 218 Amortization/ Reduction in Securities Interest Net Change in Overdraft/ Securities $ Disbursed Outstanding Debt 3/6/18 P Overdraft/Loans 47,235 1,882 (12,981) 34,255 Central Bank 47,235 1,882 (12,981) 34,255 Domestic Banks Treasury Bills 245, 1,442 245, Central Bank 16,823 533 (43,965) 62,858 Domestic Banks 136,7 91 44,863 181,563 Other 1,477 8 (898) 579 Treasury Notes 64, 16,8 16,8 14,353 64, Central Bank 234,1 16,8 8 4,947 (8,277) 241,823 Domestic Banks 171,771 15, 3,498 444 157,215 Other 234,129 1, 5,97 7,833 24,962 Belize Bank Limited (1) 91, 91, Heritage Bank Limited 1,2 383 43 637 Belize Social Security Board (2) 311 23 12 288 Fort Street Tourism Village 215 81 135 Debt for Nature Swap 1,97 91 28 1,879 Total 1,26,537 16,223 16,586 17,76 (12,981) 1,13,193 R - Revised P - Provisional (1) Caribbean Court of Justice award in November 217 against the Government of Belize in favour of Belize Bank relating the loan guarantee. (2) Government has outstanding loan with BSSB for Hopeville Housing Project. 26
Table A.2: Public Secr External Debt 218 $ Disbursed TRANSACTIONS THROUGH JUNE 218 Disbursed Outstanding Interest & Outstanding Debt Principal Other Parity Debt 31/12/17 R Disbursements Payments Payments Change 3/6/18 P CENTRAL GOVERNMENT 2,415,444 51,552 38,154 41,241-412 2,428,429 Government of Venezuela (1) 419,615 9,529 327-429,144 Kuwait Fund for Arab Economic Development 26,512 144-122 26,39 Mega International Commercial Bank Company LTD. 5, 1,1 5, Republic of China 241,61 2, 11,824 3,279 249,777 Caribbean Development Bank 259,85 1,865 11,714 4,382 258,957 Caricom Development Fund 799 415 37 384 European Economic Community 8,442 489 36-23 7,724 Inter-American Development Bank 228,478 8,26 9,431 3,361 227,37 International Fund for Agriculture Development 2,924 168 33-6 2,696 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development 32,242 2,6 791 521 34,51 Opec Fund for International Development 7,574 297 2,436 1,484 68,436 Central American Bank for Economic Integration 21,447 887 631 2,56 Bank of New York 1,53,4 25,996 1,53,4 NON-FINANCIAL PUBLIC SECTOR 22,62 282 1,58 356 21,394 Caribbean Development Bank (2)(3) 22,62 282 1,58 356 21,394 FINANCIAL PUBLIC SECTOR 73,95 1, 45 444-628 73,825 Caribbean Development Bank 22,845 1, 431 444 23,413 European Economic Community 93 19 72 International Monetary Fund (4) 5,968-628 5,339 GRAND TOTAL 2,511,969 52,833 4,112 42,41-1,41 2,523,648 R - Revised P - Provisional (1) Since September 217, debt service payments for oil imports have been suspended due U.S. sanctions on Petroleos de Venezuela, S.A. Unpaid debt service payments up the end of 218 amount principal of $11.9mn and interest of $2.8mn. (2) Effective 21 211, the nationalization of Belize Electricity Limited caused an increase ($23.1mn) in debt, which was matched by Government s acquisition of assets of equal value. (3) Effective 3 Ocber 25, loans BWSL were reclassified as public secr debt as a result of Government of Belize s repurchase of the company. (4) International Monetary Fund Special Drawing Rights allocation is included as part of the financial public secr external debt obligation. 27