Kansas City Employment by Industry, 2013
Peer Metro Comparison Greater Kansas City is holding its own in some key indicators: Source: 2013 Data Profile, Jerry Lonergan, Civic Council
Peer Metro Comparison Greater Kansas City is lagging its peers in other key indicators: Source: 2013 Data Profile, Jerry Lonergan, Civic Council
Peer Metro Comparison Change in GDP per capita, 2001 2012 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Industry Specialization Kansas City Metro Specialization by Location Quotient, 2013 Source: EMSI Industry Concentrations
Metro Location Quotients by Industry, 2012
Growth or Decline Kansas City Metro Change in Employment by Industry Specializations, 2001 2013 Source: EMSI Industry Concentrations
2012 International Exports as Percent of GDP Indianapolis Louisville Milwaukee St. Louis U.S. Charlotte Austin Nashville Kansas City KANSAS CITY Minneapolis Raleigh Pittsburgh Columbus Omaha San Antonio Oklahoma City Denver 12.7% 12.5% 11.9% 11.7% 11.6% 11.3% 10.8% 10.2% 10.1% 9.6% 9.1% 8.3% 15.0% 14.7% 14.5% 13.9% 16.9% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% 18.0% Source: Brookings Institution Export Nation Industry Concentrations
Growth in International Exports Percent change in export value, 2003 2012 Source: Brookings Institution Export Nation Industry Concentrations
International Exports Mainly manufacturing Source: Brookings Institution Export Nation Industry Concentrations
Patent Growth Metro Comparison: Patents per 10,000 Residents, 2011 Source: US Patent Office Innovation and Entrepreneurship
Patent Growth Patents Per Year, 2000 2011, Kansas City MSA Source: US Patent Office Innovation and Entrepreneurship
Top KC Patent Organizations Share of patent growth, 2011 Source: Brookings Institution Innovation and Entrepreneurship
Business Establishment Birth Rate New business establishments divided by total establishments Source: Business Dynamics Innovation and Entrepreneurship
Educational attainment Population over age 25, Kansas City vs. Top 100 Metros, 2012 Source: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey Human Capital
Bachelor s Degree by Field Source: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey Human Capital
Unemployment vs. Job Openings
TOP 10 Occupations in Demand
2014 ECONOMIC FORECAST Fall 2013
The U.S. economic recovery continues.
Growth Before and After Recession, Various Economic Sectors 60% Recession 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% -60% Case-Shiller Housing Index Corporate Profits Dow Jones Industrial Average Business Loans Non-farm Employment J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Labor Force Underutilization 18.0 16.0 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 Official Unemployment Rate Unemployment + Marginally Attached+Part Time for Economic Reasons (Percent) J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
However, the recovery is still weak
Labor Force Not Growing Signficantly 160,000 155,000 150,000 145,000 140,000 135,000 U.S. Labor Force 2000 2005 2010 68 67 66 65 64 63 62 61 Percent U.S. Labor Force Participation Rate 2000 2005 2010
Economic recovery comparison % change in GDP since recession end 25% 20% 15% 73-75 Recession 81-82 Recession 90-91 Recession 01 Recession 07-09 Recession 10% 5% 0% 0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 Q6 Q7 Q8 Q9 Q10 Q11 Q12 Q13 Q14 Q15 Q16 Quarters Since End of the Recession
Percent Federal Funds Rate During Recession Recoveries 12 10 8 6 4 2 73-75 Recession 81-82 Recession 90-91 Recession 01 Recession 07-09 Recession 0 0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 Q6 Q7 Q8 Q9 Q10 Q11 Q12 Q13 Q14 Q15 Q16 Quarters Since End of the Recession
The economy has little momentum
KC Forecast
KC and US Employment Change Over Prior 12 Months 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% -3.0% -4.0% -5.0% -6.0% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 US KC
U.S. & KC Employment Growth Rates (January to July growth, seasonally adjusted, by year) 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% KC US 0.8% 0.7% 1.1% 0.9% 0.6% 0.4% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 2010 2011 2012 2013
KC and U.S. GDP Growth (SAAR) 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% History Forecast US KC Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2012 2013 2014 2015
KC Employment Change, 2013-15 4Q/4Q Basis 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 2013 2014 2015
Change in Jobs by Industry 2013, 2014 and 2015, 4Q/4Q Manufacturing Construction TCPU Wholesale Retail FIRE Services Government Other 2013 (2012Q4-2013Q4) 2014 (2013Q4-2014Q4) 2015 (2014Q4-2015Q4) -2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000
Change in Jobs Services Private households Membership associations Personal and laundry services Repair and maintenance Food, drinking places Accommodation, leisure Health Educational Waste management Adminstrative, support Management of companies Professional, scientific 2013Q4-2014Q4 2014Q4-2015Q4 2015Q4-2016Q4 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000
Forecast Share of KC GDP Growth 2013-15, Q4/Q4 basis Ag/Mining Utilities Transport/Warehouse Construction Retail Admin Support Wholesale Ed/Health/Social Serv Other Serv Gov't Manufacturing Prof/Sci/Mgmt Serv Information FIRE 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
Conclusion KC economy is on a firmer footing than at any time since the recession began Time to begin thinking about the quality of jobs, about adding value Innovation and exports are keys to a prosperous future. A new STEM will lead the way - Science, Technology, Education and Manufacturing.