NUMBER 96 APRIL 21 ECONOMIC ACTIVITY AND EMPLOYMENT FOREIGN TRADE AND COMPETITIVENESS INFLATION CREDIT THE PUBLIC FINANCES MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS 1 7 8 11 12 Coincident indicator (Ita-coin) and Italian GDP (1) (percentage changes) 1. 1.. Ita-coin GDP... -. -. -1. -1. -1. 21 211 212 21 214 21-1. Source: Banca d'italia. (1) Percentage change over the previous quarter. The Ita-coin indicator tracks quarterly Italian GDP growth net of the most volatile components.
NUMBER 96, APRIL 21 GDP and the main components of demand (1) (quarterly data; indices, 27=1) 1 1 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 27 28 29 21 211 212 21 214 GDP Exports Household consumption Gross fixed investment 1 1 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 Source: Based on Istat data. (1) Chain-linked volumes adjusted for seasonal and calendar effects. GDP, national demand, foreign trade (Chained linked volumes; percentage changes on previous period; seasonally and working-day adjusted for quarterly data) Gross domestic product Gross fixed investment Resident household and NPISH consumption (1) Government consumption Total national demand (2) Exports of goods and services Imports of goods and services 211.6-1.9. -1.8 -.6.2. 212-2.8-9. -.9-1.2 -.6 2. -8.1 21-1.7 -.8-2.8 -. -2.. -2. 214 -.4 -.. -.9 -.7 2.7 1.8 214 I -.1-1..1 -.4 -..4 -.1 II -.2 -.7.2 -. -. 1. 1.1 III -.1-1..2.2 -.1.4.7 IV..2.1.4 -.4 1.6. Source: Istat. (1) Non-profit institutions serving households. (2) Including changes in inventories and acquisitions less disposals of valuables. 2
NUMBER 96, APRIL 21 Industrial production and business confidence (indices, 21=1; seasonally adjusted data) 14 1 12 11 1 9 8 7 6 4 2-2 - 4-6 - 8-1 - 12 2 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 21 214 '1 Industrial production, quarterly data, percentage changes on previous period (right-hand scale) Industrial production, single observations Index of confidence among industrial firms, single observations Source: Based on Istat data. Firms' assessment of the conditions for investing compared with the previous quarter (1) (quarterly data; percentage points) 2 2-2 -2-4 -4-6 -6-8 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 21 214 All firms Industrial firms Service firms -8 (1) Balance between judgments of improvement and of deterioration compared with the previous quarter reported in the quarterly Survey on Inflation and Growth Expectations, conducted by the Bank of Italy with Il Sole 24 Ore among service firms and non-construction industrial firms and published in Supplements to the Statistical Bulletin.
NUMBER 96, APRIL 21 Household confidence index and expectations for unemployment (seasonally adjusted data) 12 11 11 1 1 9 9 8 8 211 212 21 214 21 Household confidence index (1) Expectations for unemployment (2) Source: Based on Istat data. (1) Indices, 21=1. In June 21 Istat introduced methodological innovations such that subsequent data are not directly comparable with those preceding that date. (2) Right-hand scale. The indicator is the simple average of the weighted balance between positive responses ("high", "increasing") and negative responses ("low", "decreasing") to the questions on the trend in unemployment. 14 12 1 8 6 4 2-2 Persons in work and unemployment rate (seasonally adjusted monthly data; millions of persons and per cent) 2.6 2.4 2.2 2. 22.8 22.6 22.4 22.2 14 1 12 11 1 9 8 7 22. 6 29 21 211 212 21 214 21 Persons in work (left-hand scale) Unemployment rate (right-hand scale) Source: Istat, Rilevazione sulle forze di lavoro, monthly estimates, provisional. 4
NUMBER 96, APRIL 21 Italy's exports of goods in value (seasonally adjusted; index, 27 Q4 = 1; three-term moving averages ending in the reference month) 14 1 12 11 1 9 8 Total non-eu countries EU countries 14 1 12 11 1 9 8 7 7 29 21 211 212 21 214 21 Source: Based on Istat data. Indicators of competitiveness (1) (monthly data; indices, 1999=1) 12 11 11 1 1 9 9 8 '99 ' '1 '2 ' '4 ' '6 '7 '8 '9 '1 '11 '12 '1 '14 Italy France Germany Spain 12 11 11 1 1 9 9 8 Sources: Based on IMF, OECD and Eurostat data. (1) In relation to 61 competitor countries; based on producer prices of manufactured goods. An increase in an index indicates a loss of competitiveness.
NUMBER 96, APRIL 21 International investment position (1) (percentages of GDP) - -1-1 -2-2 - - 21 211 212 21 214 Position at the end of the previous quarter Valutation adjustment in the quarter Flow in the quarter (financial account) Position at the end of the quarter - -1-1 -2-2 - - Source for GDP: ISTAT. (1) The position at the end of the quarter is equal to the position at the end of the previous quarter adjusted for the flows on the financial account during the quarter and for valuation adjustments. 6 4 2-2 -4-6 -8 Italy: current account of the balance of payments (12-month cumulative balance; billions of euros) Current account Services Secondary income (1) Goods Primary income 28 29 21 211 212 21 214 '1 (1) According to the IMF Balance of Payments Manual 6 th edition, secondary income consists in almost all the items previously classed as current transfers. Balance of payments (net balances; billions of euros) 6 4 2-2 -4-6 -8 Current account Capital Net lending Financial account Errors Total of which: account to the rest Total of which: and A Merchandise B of the world (A+B) C Portfolio investment Change in reserve assets omissions C-(A+B) 211 -.4-18.6 1. -49. -69.1 9.7.9-19.7 212-6.9 16.8 4. -. -14.8-2.9 1. -11.8 21 1. 6.1.2 1.1 11. -14.6 1. -.8 214 1.2 49..4 4..2-4. -1. 1.7 214 Jan. -1.4.8 -.1-1. -.2-44.4.1-1.7 Feb...2 -.1.4 9.7 4.4 -.4 9. Mar..6 4.4 -.. 8. 8..2 8. April 2.9 4.2. 2.9.1-17.6.2.2 May.9 4.2..9-4.1-2.2 -.2 -. June 2.6.9. 2.9 1.8-4.9 -.1-1.1 July 7.6 7.4.2 7.8 4. -11.1. -.6 Aug. 1.6 2.7.2 1.8 4. 2. -.1 2. Sept. 1. 2.7.1 1.4 -.4 11.8 -.1-6.8 Oct. 6..9 1. 7. 12.6 18. -.7. Nov..2 4. 1.2 4. 9.6..2.2 Dec..2 6.2.8 6. 9. 22.9 -.. 21 Jan.. 1.9 -.1. -.2-18.. -.2 6
NUMBER 96, APRIL 21 Consumer price inflation and contributions of the main components (1) (monthly data; percentage changes over 12-months and percentage points) 4 2 1-1 2 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 21 214 '1 Core components Volatile components Total Source: Based on Eurostat data. (1) Harmonized index of consumer prices. The core component consists of non-food, non-energy and services; the volatile component is food and energy goods. Indicators of inflation in Italy (monthly data; 12-month percentage changes) 4 2 1-1 Overall index Excl. energy HICP (1) CPI (2) PPI () Excl. Overall index Overall Overall energy at constant index index and food taxation Non-food products 12 11 1 9 8 7 6 21 Nov..7 1. 1.1.2.7-2.. Dec..7.9.9..7-2.1. 214 Jan..6 1.1.9..7-1..7 Feb..4.9.9.1. -1.7.6 Mar...8.9 -.1.4-1.9.7 April..9 1.1.2.6-1.7.9 May.4.6.8.. -1.7 1.1 June.2..7 -.2. -1.8.7 July... -..1-1.9.9 Aug. -.2.2.4 -.6 -.1-2.1.8 Sept. -.1.. -. -.2-2..8 Oct..2.4.6.2.1-1..7 Nov...6.6..2-1..6 Dec. -.1..7 -.1. -2.1. 21 Jan. -... -. -.6 -.8.4 Feb..1 1..9. -.1 -.. Source: Based on Istat and Eurostat data. (1) Harmonized index of consumer prices. (2) Consumer price index for the entire resident population. () Index of producer prices of industrial products sold on the domestic market. House prices and sales (quarterly data; indices, 2=1) ' '1 '2 ' '4 ' '6 '7 '8 '9 '1 '11 '12 '1 '14 Prices Prices in real terms (1) Number of sales (2) 12 11 1 9 8 7 6 Sources: Based on Osservatorio del Mercato Immobiliare, Bank of Italy, Istat, and Consulente immobiliare data. (1) House prices deflated by the consumer price index. (2) Adjusted for seasonal and calendar effects. 7
NUMBER 96, APRIL 21 Bank lending to the private sector (1) (monthly data; 12-month percentage changes) 1 1 1 1 - -1 Non-financial corporations Private sector Households 24 2 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 21 214 '1 - -1 Source: Supervisory reports. (1) Includes bad debts, repos and loans not recorded in banks' balance sheets because they have been securitized. The percentage changes are net of reclassifications, exchange rate variations, value adjustments and other variations not due to transactions; operations concluded with central counterparties are excluded. 6 Interest rates on new loans (1) (monthly data; per cent) 6 4 4 2 2 1 2 24 2 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 21 214 '1 Italy: loans to firms Euro area: loans to firms Italy: loans to households for house purchase Euro area: loans to households for house purchase 1 Source: Based on Bank of Italy and ECB data. (1) Averages. Data refer only to transactions in euros and are gathered and processed using the Eurosystem's harmonized method. 8
NUMBER 96, APRIL 21 Credit access conditions for Italian firms a) Total (quarterly data) 1. 4.8.6 2.4 1.2. -1 28 29 21 211 212 21 214 21 -.2 Bank of Italy-Il Sole 24 Ore survey (1)(2) Istat survey (2)()(4) Bank Lending Survey, Italian banks (Right-hand scale) () 4 2 1-1 -2 b) By firm size (2)() (monthly data) 21 211 212 21 214 21 4 2 1-1 -2 Up to 49 workers -249 workers 249 workers or more Total (1) Source: Bank of Italy, Survey on inflation and growth expectations. The survey is conducted on samples of firms in industry (excluding construction) and services. - (2) Net percentage of firms reporting difficulty in obtaining credit calculated as the difference between the percentage of replies indicating a tightening of lending conditions and the percentage of those indicating an easing. - () Source: Istat, Business confidence survey in the manufacturing sector. In June 21 some methodological changes involving the sample and data observation techniques were made precluding direct comparison with previous periods. - (4) Last survey in the quarter. - () Source: The euro area bank lending survey. Degree of credit supply tightening compared with the previous quarter (diffusion index); based on the replies by eight leading Italian banking groups. 9
NUMBER 96, APRIL 21 Growth in bank funding: contributions of the various components (1) (percentage points and 12-month percentage changes) 1 12 9 6 - -6-9 211 21 212 21 214 '1 Eurosystem refinancing Deposits of non-residents Retail bonds Total funds raised Net liabilities towards central counterparties Wholesale bonds Deposits of residents Source: Supervisory reports. (1) The sum of the contributions is equal to the percentage change over 12 months in the total funds raised. The percentage changes in the single components are calculated net of reclassifications, exchange-rate variations, value adjustments and other variations not due to transactions. Liabilities towards resident monetary financial institutions are excluded. Net liabilities towards central counterparties are the funds raised by way of repos with non-residents via central counterparties. 1 12 9 6 - -6-9 Italian banks funding gap (1) (billions of euros and per cent) 2 2 4 1 1 2 1-2 24 2 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 21 214'1-1 Funding gap (2) Retail funding - 12-month growth Lending to residents - 12-month growth Funding gap as a percentage of lending Source: Supervisory reports. Excludes Cassa Depositi e Prestiti and branches of foreign banks. For 21, funding gap data at the end of February. (1) Difference between lending to residents and retail funding (residents' deposits plus bank bonds subscribed by households). (2) Right-hand scale (billions). 1
NUMBER 96, APRIL 21 General government net borrowing, primary net borrowing and debt (1) (percentages of GDP; the dotted lines indicate Government targets)(2) 6. 4.. 1.. -1. -. -4. -6. 1 Net borrowing Primary net borrowing () Debt (4) (Right-hand scale) 24 2 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 21 214 21 (1) The data are in accordance with ESA 21. (2) Source: based on the Update of the 214 Economic and Financial Document, the draft budgetary law for 21 and updated tables of the Draft Budgetary Plan 21 (October 214). () Overall balance net of interest payments. (4) Calculated according to the EC Regulation no. 29/479. Stock of government securities by type of investor and security (percentages) Foreign holders Bank of Italy Banking system Other investors 1 1 12 12 11 11 1 1 9 1 7 2 1 7 2 211 212 21 214 Treasury bills Floating rate Fixed rate 7 2 1 7 2 Government benchmark bonds: gross yields to maturity (annual and monthly averages of daily data) Fixed rate Floating 2 years years years 1 years years rate 211.8 4.19 4.68.4 6.4 4.29 212.1.6 4..1 6.1.11 21 1.61 2.21.11 4.2. 2.4 214.7.96 1.7 2.9 4. 1.6 214 April.77 1. 1.82.2 4.22 1.28 May.87 1.8 1.74.12 4.1 1.4 June.68.94 1.46 2.92 4.4 1. July.6.78 1.8 2.79.99 1.28 Aug..4.66 1.24 2.6.82 1.21 Sept..4.7 1.7 2.4.7 1.1 Oct..62.78 1.1 2.42.76 1.19 Nov..6.78 1.1 2.29.7 1.2 Dec..7.74 1. 1.99. 1.11 21 Jan..42.8.89 1.7.2.9 Feb..29.4.78 1.6 2.6.76 Mar..2.27. 1.29 2.17.7 11
NUMBER 96, APRIL 21 Growth and inflation forecasts Italy Growth (percentage change on previous period) (1) 214 21 216 Q1 Q2 Q Q4 Q1 Q2 Q Q4 Q1 Q2 Q Q4 214 21 216 Bank of Italy (Jan.)(2) - - - - - - - - - - - - -.4.4 1.2 European Commission (Feb.)(). -.2 -.1 -.1.1.2.4..1.4.. -..6 1. IMF (Jan.)(4) - - - - - - - - - - - - -.4.4.8 OECD (Nov.)() - - - - - - - - - - - - -.4.2 1. Consensus Economics (Mar.)(6) - - - - - - - - - - - - -.4.6 1.1 Inflation (7) (percentage change on corresponding period of previous year) 214 21 216 Q1 Q2 Q Q4 Q1 Q2 Q Q4 Q1 Q2 Q Q4 214 21 216 Bank of Italy (Jan.)(2) - - - - - - - - - - - -.2 -.2.7 European Commission (Feb.)()..4 -.1.1 -. -.6 -.2.1 1.2 1.6 1.6 1..2 -. 1. IMF (Oct.)(4) - - - - - - - - - - - -.1. 1.1 OECD (Nov.)() - - - - - - - - - - - -.1..6 Consensus Economics (Mar.)(6) - - - - - - - - - - - -.2..8 (1)The quarterly data are seasonally adjusted. (2) Source: Economic Bulletin No. 1, January 21. GDP data adjusted for calendar effects. () Source: European Economic Forecast - Winter 21. (4) Source: World Economic Outlook, October 214 for inflation and World Economic Outlook Update, January 21 for GDP.() Source: OECD Economic Outlook, November 214. GDP data adjusted for calendar effects. (6) Source: Consensus Forecasts, 9 March 21. (7) Forecasts for HICP. THE DIRECTORATE GENERAL FOR ECONOMICS, STATISTICS AND RESEARCH Via Nazionale, 91 184 Roma - Italia Registration with the Court of Rome No. 7/28, 26 February 28 ISSN 284-914 (online) Director: Eugenio Gaiotti 12