The Implications of New Brunswick s Population and Labour Market Forecasts November 22, 2017 John Calhoun Post-Secondary Education, Training and Labour 1
Presentation Outline Population and Labour Market Forecasts Key Findings So What? 2
Population and Labour Market Forecasts Small-Area Population Forecasts for New Brunswick New Brunswick Labour Market Outlook 2017-2026 3
Population and Labour Market Forecasts The population forecasts: Include sophisticated models, which we own Are easy to update with new data Are available by several sub-provincial regions, including: 15 Counties 7 Health Regions 33 Health Council Community Districts 49 Provincial Electoral Districts 12 Regional Service Commission Areas Can be updated with more sub-provincial regions 4
Population and Labour Market Forecasts The labour market forecasts: Include sophisticated models, which we do not own Will be updated as needed, based primarily on changing economic conditions Are only available at the provincial level, but provide detailed labour market information by industries and occupations 5
Population and Labour Market Forecasts The labour market forecasts involve a requirements-based approach Current levels of economic activity are expected to be maintained As such, the demand for labour (resulting primarily from replacements) will be filled by pulling from the sources of labour supply However, in reality this may not occur if New Brunswick struggles to keep and attract people Particularly if the population forecasts are accurate 6
THE OUTLOOK (Base Case Scenario) Population - Change Consistently positive Net International Migration Forecast - Sources of Population Change (2017 to 2026) Variable Net Interprovincial Migration (primarily negative) Declining Net Natural Change 7
THE OUTLOOK (Base Case Scenario) Labour Force Forecast - Selected Labour Force Characteristics (Thousands of Persons) (2017 to 2026) Forecast - Labour Force Relative to 2017 (2017 to 2026) Labour Force to shrink Employment to increase slightly Unemployment to drop substantially 8
THE OUTLOOK (Base Case Scenario) Job Openings Forecast - Labour Market Demand and Supply Additions (2017 to 2026) Substantial number of Job Openings (110,564) Forecast - Job Openings (2017 to 2026) Most from Replacement Demand (99.7%) New Entrants are the main source of supply (65.5%), followed by Other In-Mobility (21.1%), and Net In-Migration (13.4%) 9
THE OUTLOOK (Base Case Scenario) Job Openings - Sectors Forecast Job Openings by Sector (2017 to 2026) 10
THE OUTLOOK (Base Case Scenario) Job Openings - Occupations Forecast - Job Openings by Broad Occupational Categories (2017 to 2026) 11
THE OUTLOOK (Base Case Scenario) Job Openings Occupations (Skill Level) Forecast Job Openings by Skill Level (2017 to 2026) 12
Key Findings Relatively poor economic and workforce growth is expected at a provincial level Relying on a few major project investments to turn around the economy is an insufficient long-term solution Aging population with fewer youth Low or negative population growth is expected across most areas of the province Urbanization is expected to continue 13
Key Findings Interprovincial out-migration is unstable and is primarily responsible for low or negative population growth rates Particularly in rural areas Interprovincial out-migration is closely tied to unemployment in New Brunswick and the economic circumstances of other provinces Especially Alberta 14
Growth Rate by County 15
Growth Rate by County 16
2016 Census: Population Change from 2011 to 2016 11.6% 12.7% 5.0% 4.6% 5.8% 6.3% 5.6% 5.8% 3.3% 1.0% 1.9% 0.2% 0.8% -0.5% Canada NL PE NS NB QC ON MB SK AB BC YT NT NU 17
2016 Census: Population Change from 2011 to 2016 by CMA / CA Moncton 4.0% Fredericton 3.5% Saint John -2.2% Bathurst -2.6% Miramichi -2.1% Edmundston -1.2% Campbellton -6.6% 18
% Change in Core Working Age Population by CMA/CA (2011-16) -1.5% -1.5% -9.9% -8.3% -13.1% -15.2% -13.5% Bathurst Campbellton Edmundston Fredericton Miramichi Moncton Saint John 19
70% Composition of Working-Age Population by Age Group (New Brunswick) 50% 47.5% 45.6% 30% 28.9% 41.1% 23.6% 13.3% 10% 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 Ages 15-24 Ages 25-54 Ages 55+ 20
Net Interprovincial Migration by Age Group (NB) 2011/2012 2012/2013 2013/2014 2014/2015 2015/2016-1,732-74 -2,248-2,324-1,997-1,892-1,042-1,193-793 -388 *Estimates for 2015/2016 are preliminary Ages 18 to 29 All Other Ages 21
So What? Think about the potential implications regarding: Health care costs In 2014, $6,021 for those age 65 to 69; $8,459 for those 70 to 74; $11,961 for those 75 to 79; and the trend continues to increase 1 senior per 2.4 working-age people by 2026, compared to 1 senior per 5 working-age people in 2005 Growth strategies Long-term estimates have been provided, but provincial growth strategies focus on short-term Industries and occupations Impact of demographics on resource-based industries in rural areas? How might this impact rural development? How to cope with the reality of a declining population 22
$35,000 2014 New Brunswick Total Health Expenditures by Age Groups ($ per capita) $30,000 $25,000 $20,000 $15,000 $10,000 $5,000 $0 <1 1-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90+ Age Groups 23
So What? If the forecasts are accurate, then we should embrace the evidence and act accordingly Policies and programs should account for these realities, where the likelihood of growth in most regions is low but the potential for growth in urban centres is high How could this affect policy development? 24
Going Forward Continuing to monitor StatsCan releases (including Census releases) Updating the Population Forecasts Updating the Occupational Forecasts Ongoing Analysis/Research on Income Security Additional Research with NB-IRDT 25