Brussels Copenhagen Frankfurt Hong Kong London Mexico City New Delhi Ottawa New York Chicago San Francisco Washington FOR RELEASE: 8:00 P.M. ET, TUESDAY, JULY 25, 2006 The Conference Board Australia Business Cycle Indicators SM AUSTRALIA LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS AND RELATED COMPOSITE INDEXES FOR MAY 2006 The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for Australia declined 0.1 percent and the coincident index increased 0.3 percent in May. The leading index fell slightly in May, mainly as a result of a large negative contribution from share prices. In addition, April and March values were revised down as a result of data revisions. The growth rate of the leading index has been fluctuating at an annual rate of about 2.0 percent in recent months, below the most recent high of almost 5.0 percent (annual rate) reached in mid-2005. Over the period from November to May, real money supply and share prices have made the largest positive contributions, and the strengths among the leading indicators have been somewhat more widespread. The coincident index increased slightly in May. Employed persons and retail trade are the main positive contributors to the coincident index over the last six months. At the same time, real GDP growth picked up to a 3.5 percent annual rate in the first quarter of 2006, up from a 1.9 percent average annual rate in the second half of 2005. The current behavior of the leading index still suggests that moderate economic growth is likely to continue in the near term. LEADING INDICATORS. Three of the eight components in the leading index increased in May. The positive contributors to the index in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest are building approvals*, gross operating surplus*, and the sales to inventories ratio*. Share prices, money supply*, rural goods exports*, and the (inverted) medium-term government bond yield declined in May. The yield spread remained unchanged. With the 0.1 percent decrease in May, the leading index now stands at 160.2 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index declined 0.1 percent in April and increased 0.2 percent in March. During the six-month period through May, the leading index increased 0.6 percent, and six of the eight components increased (diffusion index, six-month span equals 75.0 percent). COINCIDENT INDICATORS. Four of the five components in the coincident index increased in May. The increases - in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest occurred in employed persons, the (inverted) unemployment rate, household gross disposable income*, and industrial production*. Retail trade declined in May. * See notes under data availability. The next release is scheduled for August 28, 2006 at 8:00 P.M. (ET) In Australia August 29, 2006 at 10:00 A.M. (AEDST)
-2- With the increase of 0.3 percent in May, the coincident index now stands at 119.4 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index remained unchanged in April and increased 0.3 percent in March. During the six-month period through May, the coincident index increased 0.7 percent, with four of the five components in the series making positive contributions (diffusion index, six-month span equals 80.0 percent). FOR TABLES AND CHARTS, SEE BELOW DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used by The Conference Board to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available as of 10 A.M. ET on July 25, 2006. Some series are estimated as noted below. NOTES: Series in the leading index that are based on The Conference Board estimates are sales to inventory ratio and gross operating surplus for private non-financial corporations, the implicit price index used to deflate rural goods exports and building approvals, and the CPI used to deflate money supply M3. Series in the coincident index that are based on The Conference Board estimates are industrial production and household disposable income. CPI was used to deflate retail trade. Professional Contacts at The Conference Board: Media Contacts: Indicator Program: 1-212-339-0330 Randy Poe: 1-212-339-0234 Frank Tortorici: 1-212-339-0231 Email: indicators@conference board.org Website: http://www.conference-board.org/economics/bci/ THE CYCLICAL INDICATOR APPROACH. The composite indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading and coincident indexes are essentially composite averages of between four and ten individual leading or coincident indicators. (See page 3 for details.) They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components. Historically, the cyclical turning points in the leading index have occurred before those in aggregate economic activity, while the cyclical turning points in the coincident index have occurred at about the same time as those in aggregate economic activity. Further explanations of the cyclical indicator approach and the composite index methodology appear in The Conference Board s Business Cycle Indicators report and Web site: http://www.conference-board.org/economics/bci/.
-3- Australia Composite Indexes: Components and Standardization Factors Leading Index Factor 1. Medium Term Government Bond Yield.0302 2. Yield Spread, 10 year minus 90 day.3507 3. Share Prices, All Ordinaries.0279 4. Money Supply, M3.2215 5. Rural Goods Exports.0176 6. Sales to Inventory Ratio.2229 7. Gross Operating Surplus, Private Non-Financial Corporations.0915 8. Building Approvals.0376 Coincident Index 1. Retail Trade.0822 2. Unemployment Rate.4612 3. Industrial Production.0468 4. Employed Persons.2828 5. Household Disposable Income.1270 Notes: The component factors are inversely related to the standard deviation of the month-to-month changes in each component. They are used to equalize the volatility of the contribution from each component and are normalized to sum to 1. These factors were revised effective with June 19, 2001 release, and all historical values for the two composite indexes have been revised at the time to reflect the changes. (Under normal circumstances, updates to the leading and coincident indexes only incorporate revisions to data over the past six months.) The factors above were calculated using 1977-1999 as the sample period for measuring volatility for the leading index, and 1959-1999 as the sample period for the coincident index. There are additional sample periods as the result of different starting dates for the component data. When one or more components is missing, the other factors are adjusted proportionately to ensure that the total continues to sum to 1. For additional information on the standardization factors and the index methodology visit our Web site: http://www.conferenceboard.org/economics/bci/. To address the problem of lags in available data, those leading and coincident indicators that are not available at the time of publication are estimated using statistical imputation. An autoregressive model is used to estimate each component. The resulting indexes are constructed using real and estimated data, and will be revised as the data unavailable at the time of publication become available. Such revisions are part of the monthly data revisions, now a regular part of the U.S. Business Cycle Indicators program. The main advantage of this procedure is to utilize in the leading index the data, such as stock prices, that are available sooner than other data on real aspects of the economy, such as new orders and changes in inventory. Empirical research by The Conference Board suggests there are real gains in adopting this procedure to make all the indicator series as up-to-date as possible.
NOTICES The schedule for 2006 for the Leading Economic Indicators news release is: June 2006 data Monday, August 28, 2006 July 2006 data Tuesday, September 26, 2006 All releases are at 8:00 PM ET (10:00 A M AEDST the next day). For detailed information on benchmark revisions, visit our website: http://www.conferenceboard.org/economics/bci/ ABOUT THE CONFERENCE BOARD. Founded in 1916, The Conference Board is the premier business membership and research network. The Conference Board has become a global leader in helping executives build strong professional relationships, expand their business knowledge and find solutions to a wide range of business challenges. The Board s Economics Program, under the direction of Chief Economist Gail Fosler, is a recognized source of forecasts, economic analysis and objective indicators such as the Leading Economic Indicators and the Consumer Confidence Index. This role is part of a long tradition of research and education that stretches back to the compilation of the first continuous measure of the cost of living in the United States in 1919. In 1995, The Conference Board assumed responsibility for computing the composite indexes from the U.S. Department of Commerce. The Conference Board now produces business cycle indexes for the U.S., Australia, France, Germany, Korea, Japan, Mexico, Spain and the U.K. To subscribe to any of these indexes, please contact the customer service department at 212-339-0345, or email indicators@conference-board.org. AVAILABLE FROM THE CONFERENCE BOARD: Australia Business Cycle Indicators Internet Subscription $ 535 per year (1 user) (Includes monthly release, data, charts and commentary) Individual Data Series $ 25 per series downloaded Monthly BCI Report $ 235 per year (Sample available on request) BCI Handbook (published 2001) $ 20 Corporate Site License $2,600 per year Business Cycle Indicators for France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain and the U.K. are available at $535 per country per year (1 user). Discounts are available to Associates of The Conference Board and accredited academic institutions.
THESE DATA ARE FOR NEWS ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS PERMISSION. The Conference Board Australia Business Cycle Indicators Table 1.--Summary of Australia Composite Indexes 2005 2006 Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May. Leading index 159.3 159.9 160.3 160.3 160.6 p 160.4 p 160.2 p Percent change 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.2 p -0.1 p -0.1 p Diffusion index 75.0 62.5 56.3 43.8 75.0 37.5 43.8 Coincident index 118.6 118.6 118.6 r 118.8 r 119.1 p 119.1 p 119.4 p Percent change 0.1 0.0 0.0 r 0.2 0.3 p 0.0 p 0.3 p Diffusion index 60.0 50.0 50.0 80.0 100.0 80.0 80.0 May to Jun to Jul to Aug to Sep to Oct to Nov to Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Leading index Percent change 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.1 p 1.1 p 0.6 p Diffusion index 68.8 75.0 75.0 75.0 81.3 75.0 75.0 Coincident index Percent change 0.4 0.1 0.1 r 0.0 r 0.5 p 0.5 p 0.7 p Diffusion index 60.0 40.0 60.0 50.0 80.0 80.0 80.0 p Preliminary. r Revised (noted only for index levels and one-month percent changes). CALCULATION NOTE: The diffusion indexes measure the proportion of the components that are rising. Components that rise more than 0.05 percent are given a value of 1.0, components that change less than 0.05 percent are given a value of 0.5, and components that fall more than 0.05 percent are given a value of 0.0. For more information, visit our Web site at w w w.conference-board.org/economics/bci Source: The Conference Board All Rights Reserved
THESE DATA ARE FOR NEWS ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS PERMISSION. The Conference Board Australia Business Cycle Indicators Table 2.--Data and Net Contributions for Components of the Australia Leading Index 2005 2006 Component Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May. Australia Leading index component data "Medium Term" Government Bond Yield (Inverted)... 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.18 0.18 Yield Spread (10 Year - T Bill Rate (90 day), 3 month moving averag -0.22-0.28-0.32-0.34-0.27-0.27 r -0.27 Share Prices, All Ordinaries (Index 1995=100)... 144.6 148.6 153.8 153.6 160.1 164.1 156.1 Money Supply, M3 (Mill. Constant A$, SA) 432806 r 437074 r 441211 r 442022 r 440877 ## 439720 ## 438565 ## Building Approvals, (Thous. '96-'97 A$, SA, 3 month moving average).. 4705689 r 4676097 r 4645693 r 4619493 r 4687380 # 4681685 # 4815514 # Rural Goods Exports, (Mill. Constant A$, SA) 1957.8 r 2076.3 r 2064.8 r 2022.1 r 2099.0 # 2085.3 # 2044.8 # Sales to Inventories Ratio, SA (Q)... 1.360 1.360 1.360 1.360 1.360 ** 1.360 ** 1.360 ** Gross Operating Surplus, Private Non-Financial Corp. (Mill. '96-'97 A$, SA, Q)...... 41934 42028 42122 42217 42392 ** 42611 ** 42850 ** LEADING INDEX (1990=100)... 159.3 159.9 160.3 160.3 160.6 p 160.4 160.2 p Percent change from preceding month... 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.2 p -0.1-0.1 p Australia Leading index net contributions "Medium Term" Government Bond Yield (Inverted)...... 0.05-0.04 0.01-0.06-0.16-0.02 Yield Spread (10 Year - T Bill Rate (90 day), 3 month moving averag... -0.02-0.02-0.01 0.03 0.00 r 0.00 Share Prices, All Ordinaries (Index 1995=100)...... 0.08 0.10 0.00 0.12 0.07-0.14 Money Supply, M3 (Mill. Constant A$, SA)... 0.22 0.21 0.04-0.06 ## -0.06 ## -0.06 ## Building Approvals, (Thous. '96-'97 A$, SA, 3 month moving average)..... -0.02 r -0.02 r -0.02 0.05 # 0.00 # 0.11 # Rural Goods Exports, (Mill. Constant A$, SA)... 0.10 r -0.01-0.04 r 0.07 # -0.01 # -0.03 # Sales to Inventories Ratio, SA (Q)...... -0.02-0.02-0.02 0.00 ** 0.01 ** 0.01 ** Gross Operating Surplus, Private Non-Financial Corp. (Mill. '96-'97 A$, SA, Q)......... 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.04 ** 0.05 ** 0.05 ** p Preliminary. r Revised. -- * Inverted series; a negative change in this component makes a positive contribution. # Estimates of the quarterly deflator (implicit price index) are used to deflate these series ## Estimates of the quarterly deflator (CPI) are used to deflate money supply. Money Supply (M3) level from April 2002 and on are derived from growth rates reported by the Reserve Bank of Australia ** Statistical Imputation (See page 2 for more details) -- Q: Quarterly series; these series are converted to monthly through a linear interpolation Data Sources: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Reserve Bank of Australia, Thomson Financial CALCULATION NOTE--The percent change in the index does not always equal the sum of the net contributions of the individual components (because of rounding effects and base value differences).
THESE DATA ARE FOR NEWS ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS PERMISSION. The Conference Board Australia Business Cycle Indicators Table 3.--Data and Net Contributions for Components of the Australia Coincident Index 2005 2006 Component Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May. Australia Coincident index component data Retail Trade (Mill. Constant A$, SA)... 11428.65 r 11469 r 11554.5 r 11611.4 r 11629.3 ## 11724.7 ## 11663.2 ## Unemployment Rate, (S.A.)*... 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.2 5.0 5.1 4.9 Industrial Production (Index 1997-98=100, SA, Q)... 100.5 100.0 r 99.6 r 99.2 r 99.2 ** 99.3 ** 99.4 ** Employed Persons (Thousands of Persons, SA)... 10033.7 r 10037.1 r 10034.7 r 10061.1 r 10089.0 r 10094.5 r 10142.2 Household Gross Disposable Income, (Mill. Constant A$, SA. Q)... 97484.6 r 97617.4 r 97749.5 r 97881.1 r 98002.2 ** 98137.1 ** 98282.5 ** COINCIDENT INDEX (1990=100)... 118.6 118.6 118.6 r 118.8 r 119.1 p 119.1 p 119.4 p Percent change from preceding month... 0.1 0.0 0.0 r 0.2 0.3 p 0.0 p 0.3 p Australia Coincident index net contributions Retail Trade (Mill. Constant A$, SA)...... 0.03 0.06 0.04 0.01 ## 0.07 ## -0.04 ## Unemployment Rate, (S.A.)*...... -0.05-0.05 0.05 0.09-0.05 0.09 Industrial Production (Index 1997-98=100, SA, Q)...... -0.02 r -0.02 r -0.02 r 0.00 ** 0.01 ** 0.01 ** Employed Persons (Thousands of Persons, SA)...... 0.01-0.01 0.07 r 0.08 r 0.02 r 0.13 Household Gross Disposable Income, (Mill. Constant A$, SA. Q)...... 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 ** 0.02 ** 0.02 ** * Inverted Series, a negative change in this component makes a positive contribution ** Statistical Imputation (See page 2 for more details) ## Estimates of the quarterly deflator (CPI) are used to deflate retail trade Q Quarterly series; these series are converted to monthly through a linear interpolation. Data Sources: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Reserve Bank of Australia, Thomson Financial CALCULATION NOTE--The percent change in the index does not alw ays equal the sum of the net contributions of the individual components (because of rounding effects and base value differences).
THESE DATA ARE FOR NEWS ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS PERMISSION. Australia 170 6/90 7/91 160 Leading Index 150 140 Index (1990 = 100) 130 120 110 100 May-06 90 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 120 116 Coincident Index 112 Index (1990 = 100) 108 104 100 May-06 96 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 Source: The Conference Board Note: The shaded areas represent business cycle recessions. The peaks and troughs are designated by The Conference Board based on the coincident index and real GDP.