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7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 # /","##&" Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 US Bond Yield 10 Year Thailand Bond Yield 5 Year
11.5 9.5 7.5 5.5 3.5 1.5-0.5-2.5-4.5 # ก"39X81 2.50 1.42 Jun-06 Feb-07 Dec-07 Aug-08 May-09 Mar-10 Dec-10 Aug-11 Jun-12 Feb-13 B ot polic y rate Headline inflation
200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0-50,000-100,000 1% -ก- ก #1 34 33 32 31 30 29 28 M illion Baht Nov-13 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 THB/US D. 1% -# $ #%3#99$3 Stocks (mn bt) Bonds >1Yr Bonds <1Yr USDTHB (RHS)
"5.$9, India -4.86 Indonesia Thailand Hong Kong Malaysia -4.42-0.54-0.50 1.08. 1% #9ก #ก"5., 7 ก0 l0 Philippines 1.51 Korea 1.70 China 4.34 Taiwan 11.53 Singapore 19.86-10.00-5.00 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 Note: Current account as of 2Q13, except 3Q13 for Korea and Thailand; GDP 4Q trailing sum as of 2Q13, except 3Q13 for China and Indonesia. Source: CEIC and Maybank Kim End analysis.
$W #"%3 #9 1 $$$W #"%3#99$3Q 2.5 *7 l# ก 200,000 180,000 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000-170,839 141,042 266 64,319 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 1Q99 1Q00 1Q01 1Q02 1Q03 1Q04 1Q05 1Q06 1Q07 1Q08 1Q09 1Q10 1Q11 1Q12 1Q13 Short-term external debt (mn US$) International reserves Total external debt Internation reserves/short-term debt (%; RHS)
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'-%/"@ 8% (1#/) 1,800 SET Index "ก"กW 1#$ กW 1#$@ (2010-12) 6% /"@ (2010-12) 12% 140 Index 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 กW 1#$@ 8% /"@ 17% กW 1#$@ -5% /"@ 6% - 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013F 120 100 80 60 40 20 EPS - SET-LHS EPS
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#(&กกกก ##"$ก #" Difference from July13 2013F 2014F 2013 2014 World GDP 2.9 3.6-0.3-0.2 US 1.6 2.6-0.1-0.2 EURO -0.4 1 0.1 0 JAPAN 2 1.2-0.1 0.1 CHINA 7.6 7.3-0.2-0.4 INDIA 3.8 5.1-1.8-1.1 BRAZIL 2.5 2.5 0-0.7 RUSSIA 1.5 3-1 -0.3 THAILAND 3.1 5.2 N.A N.A 14 Source : IMF
#(&ก10.9 "73 MBKET 0 GDP 2556 ก $ 1 3.5% ก 4% 7 ก ก #$กW ก 0 9 ก #7W -%ก #.
ก #"#+0 ก #+ 0ก. X8.9 35 PCI (% yoy) PII Headline inflation (RHS) 4 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13-5 -10 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 Recovery from floods crisis The first-car policy Source: BoT, Bloomberg and Maybank Kim Eng analysis. 16
ก #$ก.9 $/-% "5.$9, Export growth Current account (mn US$; RHS) 50 6,000.00 40 30 4,000.00 20 2,000.00 10 0 0.00-10 -20-30 Feb-05 Nov-05 Aug-06 May-07 Feb-08 Nov-08 Aug-09 May-10 Feb-11 Nov-11 Aug-12 May-13-2,000.00-4,000.00-40 -6,000.00 Source: Bloomberg and Maybank Kim Eng analysis. 17
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ASEAN Stock Market Valuations Index EPS Growth(%) PER Performance(%) 13F 14F 13F 14F Net Chg 1D WTD MTD YTD PCOMP Index 6436.49 3.39% 7.61% 18.26 16.97-81.31-1.26-3.50-3.50 9.33 JCI Index 4486.11 23.47% 16.55% 15.61 13.39-12.34-0.28 0.93-0.82 3.64 KLCI Index 1806.61 1.01% 9.72% 16.91 15.41-2.19-0.12-0.33-0.13 6.84 SET Index 1425.23 7.90% 16.33% 14.32 12.31-17.50-1.23-1.49-2.44 1.14 ASEAN 4 SHCOMP Index 2129.4 13.73% 12.91% 9.27 8.21-23.27-1.09-2.02-1.66-7.18 SENSEX Index 20822.77 17.65% 19.43% 15.33 12.84-144.84-0.70-2.45-2.30 6.44 HSI Index 22881.03-5.30% 7.73% 10.87 10.09-149.79-0.65-2.23-2.05 0.33 FSSTI Index 3202.1-8.51% 9.11% 14.83 13.59-23.30-0.73-0.70-0.99 0.37 TWSE Index 8283.71 44.36% 13.65% 15.99 14.07-54.12-0.65-1.89-2.61 6.88 KOSPI Index 2004.04 107.78% 14.13% 9.87 8.64-19.17-0.96-2.67-2.23-0.61 MXAPJ Index 474.7 4.10% 12.72% 13.06 11.58-2.76-0.58-0.99-1.23 1.86 NKY Index 14228.44 14.91% 12.89% 18.05 15.99-141.64-1.00-0.81-1.68 35.51 INDU Index 15593.98 2.77% 8.20% 14.71 13.60-152.90-0.97-0.14 0.31 19.00 *Source: Bloomberg consensus, data as of 7 Nov 2013
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# 0 $0 +0+?~v Rubber prices outlook As we enter the inventory restocking season for natural rubber (NR), we anticipate the rubber price to move higher especially that inventory in the warehouses in Qingdao, China is down about 30% from the April level standing at 220K tons as of 15th October. This would be positive on the NR prices. In addition, the Butadiene price has also risen, creating a positive knock on effect on the NR prices. Over the longer term, however, price outlook for NR remains lacklustre as excess supply persists. While the excess supply is not very high, it could still pressure NR prices because of the anaemic demand outlook. Why the D/S imbalance cannot seem to clear can be traced to the active intervention of the governments of the major rubber producing countries, Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia and even Vietnam. For Thailand the last round of raw rubber price support scheme cost the government nearly THB22bn. The raw rubber purchased from the farmers are processed for a fee by private companies, STA included, and there is now nearly 200K tons in inventory of both RSS and TSR in the government warehouses. Currently the rubber farmers in the southern region of Thailand are agitating for another round of subsidies by way of price support at THB100/kg for the raw rubber. If the lobby group wins, market clearing mechanism for rubber will not work hence chronic excess supply conditions amidst soft demand conditions.
# 0 $0 +0+?~v RSS Bale 3 in Thai Rubber Auction Market Demand & Supply
Q & A Thank you 35