Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Vol m Results Review, Malaysia Building Society (MBS MK) Not Rated Financial Services - Non-Bank Financials Target Price: NA Market Cap: USD2,139m Price: MYR2.61 Higher Impairment Allowances In 3Q14 2.70 2.50 Malaysia Building Society (MBS MK) Price Close Relative to FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Index (RHS) 118 113 108 Malaysia Building Society s (MBSB) 3Q14 net profit of MYR192.4m fell 17.4% QoQ (+63.4% YoY) due to higher impairment allowances on loans, rising operating expenses as well as lower non-interest income. 3Q14 loan growth remained muted while NIM was stable QoQ at 3.86% (2Q14: 3.83%). Management updated that efforts to close the gap towards a full-fledged banking institution have been completed in 3Q14. 2.40 2.30 2.20 2.10 2.00 60 50 40 30 20 10 Source: Bloomberg 103 98 93 88 83 Results highlights. MBSB s 3Q14 net profit of MYR192.4m fell 17.4% QoQ (+63.4% YoY) due to a combination of: i) impairment allowances of MYR26.1m vs a MYR15.2m writeback in 2Q14, ii) higher operating expenses with the cost-to-income ratio (CIR) rising to 20.3% (2Q14: 18.8%), and iii) lower non-interest income (-31.2% QoQ). However, these were partly offset by higher income from its Islamic operation (+13.3% QoQ). Net interest margin (NIM), which fell a sharp 67bps QoQ to 3.84% in 1Q14, was stable at 3.86% in 3Q14. Loans grew a modest 1.4% QoQ (+2.3% YTD), reflecting the subdued environment (particularly for personal loans) as well as stricter retail lending guidelines introduced. Meanwhile, customer deposits declined 2.4% QoQ (+1.7% YTD), resulting in a higher loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR) of 108.1% (Jun 2014: 103.9%). Gross impaired loans (GIL) ratio improved slightly QoQ at 6.9%, based on a 3-month classification criterion (vs 3Q13: 8.4%, but based on a 6-month classification criterion). Avg Turnover (MYR/USD) 8.82m/2.73m Cons. Upside (%) -7.7 Upside (%) N/A 52-wk Price low/high (MYR) 2.13-2.66 Free float (%) 35 Share outstanding (m) 2,696 Shareholders (%) EPF 65.0 Share Performance (%) YTD 1m 3m 6m 12m Absolute 18.1 6.5 14.5 15.5 7.0 Relative 19.4 6.7 16.4 17.0 5.6 compliant Rating and target price for Malaysia Building Society have been suspended due to the proposed merger of CIMB, RHB Capital and Malaysia Building Society Malaysia Research +603 9207 7618 research2@rhbgroup.com Briefing highlights. Management revealed that its corporate business and wholesale banking segment has shown positive results. For 3Q14, loan approvals for the segment reached MYR4.8bn (2Q14: MY2bn), while disbursements amounted to MYR1.7bn and loan stock stood at MYR4.8bn. MBSB added 80 new corporate depositors in 3Q14, raising total number of corporate depositors to 378. The slight improvement in MBSB s net GIL ratio of 5% in 3Q14 (2Q14: 5.2%) was due to continued strengthening of its collection process helped by the Debt Consultation Campaign. Moving forward, MBSB expects NIM to remain under pressure due to tightening measures by Bank Negara. Management also updated that it has completed the groundwork and processes to close the gaps in transforming MBSB into a full-fledged banking institution. Finally, management emphasised that MBSB will continue to leverage on its Biro Angkasa and AG code facilities. Forecasts and Valuations Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Net interest income (MYRm) 230 350 603 1,001 1,363 Reported net profit (MYRm) 57 146 325 447 598 Net profit growth (%) 75.6 155.3 122.9 37.2 33.8 Recurring net profit (MYRm) 57 146 325 447 598 Recurring EPS (MYR) 0.05 0.12 0.28 0.32 0.37 DPS (MYR) 0.02 0.04 0.05 0.22 0.10 Recurring P/E (x) 57.4 22.5 9.2 8.2 7.0 P/B (x) 3.31 4.80 2.81 2.16 2.09 Dividend Yield (%) 0.6 1.4 1.8 8.3 3.8 Return on average equity (%) 10.8 31.3 43.1 34.0 32.5 Return on average assets (%) 0.7 1.4 2.2 2.0 1.9 Our vs consensus EPS (adjusted) (%) See important disclosures at the end of this report Powered by EFA TM Platform 1
Malaysia Building Society (MBS MK) Figure 1 : MBSB s results review FYE Dec 3QFY13 2QFY14 3QFY14 QoQ YoY 9MFY13 9MFY14 YoY Comments (MYRm) (%) (%) (%) Net interest income 37.9 83.7 62.4 (25.4) 64.7 117.5 188.0 60.0 9M higher on a larger loan base Net islamic banking income 297.5 253.4 287.1 13.3 (3.5) 849.5 840.2 (1.1) Net interest margin (%) 4.0 3.7 3.8 4.3 3.8 Non-interest income 40.8 27.3 18.8 (31.2) (53.9) 80.6 65.0 (19.3) Non-II/Total income (%) 10.8 7.5 5.1 7.7 5.9 Operating income 376.1 364.4 368.4 1.1 (2.1) 1,047.5 1,093.2 4.4 Overhead expenses (65.2) (68.7) (74.9) 9.0 14.8 (181.2) (221.8) 22.5 Cost-income ratio (%)(CIR) 17.3 18.8 20.3 17.3 20.3 Pre-impairment profit 310.9 295.7 293.5 (0.7) (5.6) 866.3 871.4 0.6 Impairment allowance (114.7) 15.2 (26.1) (271.7) (77.3) (185.4) (26.1) (85.9) Credit cost-annualized (bps) 142.7 (18.9) 32.2 157.2 16.2 Operating profit 196.2 310.9 267.4 (14.0) 36.3 680.9 845.3 24.1 Impairment allowances of MYR26.1m vs a MYR15.2m writeback in 2Q14 Associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 nm nm 0.0 0.0 nm EI/Others 15.0 0.0 0.0 nm nm 0.0 0.0 nm Pretax profit 196.2 310.9 267.4 (14.0) 36.3 680.9 845.3 24.1 Tax (63.5) (78.0) (75.1) (3.8) 18.2 (216.9) (223.3) 3.0 Effective tax rate (%) 32.4% 25.1% 28.1% 31.9% 26.4% Net Profit 132.7 232.9 192.4 (17.4) 44.9 464.0 622.0 34.0 Core Profit 117.7 232.9 192.4 (17.4) 63.4 464.0 622.0 34.0 Figure 2 : Gross loan book breakdown FYE Dec (MYRm) Mar '13 Jun '13 Sep 13 Dec 13 Mar 14 Jun 14 Sep 14 QoQ (%) YoY (%) Mortgage 5,363.4 5,302.6 5,260.7 5,395.1 5,374.7 5,336.9 5,326.1-0.2 1.2 Personal financing 20,044.9 22,706.2 23,369.2 23,388.9 23,415.6 23,445.9 23,466.7 0.1 0.4 Corporate 3,499.6 3,420.2 3,859.1 2,924.8 3,039.1 3,132.4 3,554.0 13.5-7.9 Auto financing 152.5 185.7 195.4 206.7 219.5 231.4 251.1 8.5 28.5 Total 29,060.5 31,614.7 32,684.4 31,915.5 32,048.9 32,146.5 32,598.0 1.4-0.3 Source: Company, RHB See important disclosures at the end of this report 2
Malaysia Building Society (MBS MK) Figure 3: MBSB s historical quarterly earnings FYE Dec 4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13 3QFY13 4QFY13 1QFY14 2QFY14 3QFY14 (MYRm) Net interest income 49.0 37.3 42.2 37.9 74.2 41.9 83.7 62.4 Net islamic banking income 236.8 258.3 293.7 297.5 321.6 299.7 253.4 287.1 Net interest margin (%) 4.6 4.2 4.4 4.0 4.5 3.8 3.7 3.8 Non-interest income 39.4 14.8 30.4 40.8 34.7 18.9 27.3 18.8 Non-II/Total income (%) 12.1 4.8 8.3 10.8 8.1 5.2 7.5 5.1 Operating income 325.2 310.4 366.4 376.1 430.5 360.4 364.4 368.4 Overhead expenses (68.0) (56.8) (64.5) (65.2) (88.9) (78.3) (68.7) (74.9) Cost-income ratio (%)(CIR) 20.9 18.3 17.6 17.3 20.6 21.7 18.8 20.3 Pre-impairment profit 257.2 253.6 301.8 310.9 341.6 282.2 295.7 293.5 Impairment allowance (11.4) (16.5) (54.2) (114.7) (90.2) (15.2) 15.2 (26.1) Credit cost-annualized (bps) 17.4 23.6 71.5 142.7 111.7 19.0 (18.9) 32.2 Operating profit 245.7 237.1 247.6 196.2 251.4 267.0 310.9 267.4 Associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 EI/Others 50.6 0.0 0.0 15.0 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Pretax profit 245.7 237.1 247.6 196.2 251.4 267.0 310.9 267.4 Tax (62.1) (71.0) (82.5) (63.5) (117.9) (70.2) (78.0) (75.1) Effective tax rate (%) 25.3% 29.9% 33.3% 32.4% 46.9% 26.3% 25.1% 28.1% Net Profit 183.6 166.1 165.1 132.7 133.5 196.7 232.9 192.4 Core Profit 133.0 166.1 165.1 117.7 127.5 196.7 232.9 192.4 See important disclosures at the end of this report 3
Malaysia Building Society (MBS MK) Financial Exhibits Profit & Loss (MYRm) Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Interest income 472 698 1,124 1,803 2,442 Interest expense (242) (348) (521) (803) (1,079) Net interest income 230 350 603 1,001 1,363 Non interest income 74 91 160 126 140 Total other income 74 91 160 126 140 Total operating income 305 442 764 1,126 1,503 Total costs x depn & amortn (114) (122) (161) (224) (295) Operating EBITDA 190 320 603 902 1,208 Total costs (114) (122) (161) (224) (295) Operating profit 190 320 603 902 1,208 Total provision charges (110) (112) (175) (246) (276) Post-provision operating profit 80 207 428 656 932 Pre-tax profit 80 207 428 656 932 Taxation (23) (61) (103) (210) (335) Profit after tax 57 146 325 447 598 Profit after tax & minorities 57 146 325 447 598 Reported net profit 57 146 325 447 598 Recurring net profit 57 146 325 447 598 Balance Sheet Employment Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Net cust loans/assets (%) 87.3 87.6 87.4 92.1 85.9 Net earning assets / assets (%) 87.7 89.2 88.6 92.8 85.9 Non-earning assets/assets (%) 12.3 10.8 11.4 7.2 14.1 Net cust loans/cust deposits (%) 107.4 102.1 112.4 112.9 107.5 Equity / assets (%) 5.9 3.1 6.5 5.7 6.2 Equity / gross cust loans (%) 4.7 2.6 6.3 5.6 6.8 Equity & provns / gross cust loans (%) 10.7 10.1 21.1 15.6 11.9 Liquid funds / cust deposits (%) 10.7 10.4 11.5 6.9 16.3 Total write-off / avg cust loans (%) - 0.0 8.2 1.1 4.6 Total write offs / average assets (%) - 0.0 9.0 1.1 4.4 Reported NPLs / net cust loans (%) 63.1 45.8 20.7 12.4 5.4 SP chg / avg cust loans (%) (1.1) (0.5) (0.7) (0.0) 0.1 GP charge / average cust loans (%) (0.1) (0.3) (0.4) (1.1) (1.0) Total provn chg / avg cust loans (%) (1.3) (0.8) (1.1) (1.1) (0.9) Reported NPLs / gross cust loans (%) 43.5 33.9 17.6 11.1 5.2 Total provisions / gross cust loans (%) 6.0 7.4 14.7 10.0 5.1 Total provisions / reported NPLs (%) 13.8 22.0 83.5 89.9 98.2 See important disclosures at the end of this report 4
Malaysia Building Society (MBS MK) Financial Exhibits Balance Sheet (MYRm) Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Total gross loans 11,793 14,498 17,804 26,963 31,916 Securities - total 43 200 204 200 - Total gross IEAs 11,836 14,698 18,008 27,163 31,916 Total provisions (3,674) (3,791) (2,619) (2,697) (1,619) Net loans to customers 8,118 10,707 15,185 24,266 30,296 Total net IEAs 8,162 10,907 15,389 24,466 30,296 Cash & accrued interest 763 889 1,356 1,281 4,584 Total investments 1 1 1 0 0 Tangible fixed assets 112 107 118 131 99 Intangible assets 11 12 12 57 52 Other assets 255 311 489 424 217 Total non-ieas 1,143 1,319 1,976 1,892 4,953 Total assets 9,304 12,226 17,365 26,358 35,249 Broad deposits 7,562 10,484 13,512 21,494 28,193 Other interest-bearing liabilities 1,051 1,164 2,485 3,063 4,451 Total IBLs 8,613 11,648 15,997 24,558 32,644 Deferred tax liability 18 19 22 14 15 Other non-interest bearing liabilities 121 178 216 290 404 Total non-ibls 139 197 238 304 419 Total liabilities 8,752 11,845 16,235 24,861 33,063 Share capital 700 700 1,216 1,240 1,748 Retained earnings reserve (675) (849) (716) (389) (230) Other reserves 527 530 630 645 668 Shareholders' equity 553 381 1,130 1,497 2,186 Total equity 553 381 1,130 1,497 2,186 Total liabilities & equity 9,304 12,226 17,365 26,358 35,249 Key Ratios Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Cust deposit growth (%) 20.0 38.6 28.9 59.1 31.2 Broad deposit growth (%) 20.0 38.6 28.9 59.1 31.2 Growth in IBLs (%) 28.4 35.2 37.3 53.5 32.9 Return on IEAs (%) 4.2 5.3 6.9 8.0 8.3 Cost of funds (%) 3.2 3.4 3.8 4.0 3.8 Net interest spread (%) 1.1 1.8 3.1 4.0 4.5 Net interest margin (%) 2.1 2.6 3.7 4.4 4.6 Interest return on average assets (%) 2.8 3.3 4.1 4.6 4.4 Return on average equity (%) 10.8 31.3 43.1 34.0 32.5 Return on average assets (%) 0.7 1.4 2.2 2.0 1.9 EPS growth (%) 21.7 155.3 143.2 13.3 15.8 Bv per share growth (%) 8.1 (31.0) 70.8 29.8 3.7 Operating profit growth (%) 132.7 68.0 88.6 49.6 33.9 See important disclosures at the end of this report 5
Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Malaysia Building Society (MBS MK) SWOT Analysis Has a significant market share in the previously highly-lucrative personal financing segment Significant improvement in asset quality Leveraging on pay hikes and monetary benefits for the large civil servant base Potential joint cooperation with commercial banks Huge potential in the new auto loans segment Uncertainty in business outlook as it transforms into a full-fledged banking institution Regulators impose tighter measures on personal financing Intense competition from Islamic and commercial banks Less stringent asset quality management Relies heavily on costly fixed deposits and securitisation for funding Over-reliance on personal loans and government deposits suggests a lack of diversification P/E (x) vs EPS growth P/BV (x) vs ROAE 80 180% 6 50% 70 60 50 158% 135% 113% 5 4 42% 33% 40 90% 3 25% 30 20 10 68% 45% 23% 2 1 17% 8% 0 0% 0 0% P/E (x) (lhs) EPS growth (rhs) P/B (x) (lhs) Return on average equity (rhs) Company Profile Malaysia Building Society (MBSB) is an exempt finance company involved in lending and deposit-taking activities. See important disclosures at the end of this report 6
3.40 3.70 3.40 na 2.35 2.70 2.81 3.15 3.05 3.10 3.10 2.80 Malaysia Building Society (MBS MK) Recommendation Chart 2.90 Recommendations & Target Price Price Close 2.40 1.90 1.40 0.90 0.40 Nov-09 Feb-11 May-12 Aug-13 Buy Neutral Sell Trading Buy Take Profit Not Rated Source: RHB, Bloomberg Date Recommendation Target Price Price 2014-08-15 Buy 2.80 2.39 2014-05-16 Buy 2.20 2014-04-16 Buy 2.30 2014-01-30 Buy 2.15 2014-01-29 Buy 2.16 2013-10-24 Buy 3.40 2.44 2013-10-11 Neutral 3.10 2.47 2013-09-30 Neutral 3.10 2.40 2013-08-01 Buy 3.70 2.66 2013-07-08 Neutral 3.10 2.67 Source: RHB, Bloomberg See important disclosures at the end of this report 7
RHB Guide to Investment Ratings Buy: Share price may exceed 10% over the next 12 months Trading Buy: Share price may exceed 15% over the next 3 months, however longer-term outlook remains uncertain Neutral: Share price may fall within the range of +/- 10% over the next 12 months Take Profit: Target price has been attained. Look to accumulate at lower levels Sell: Share price may fall by more than 10% over the next 12 months Not Rated: Stock is not within regular research coverage Disclosure & Disclaimer All research is based on material compiled from data considered to be reliable at the time of writing, but RHB does not make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. No part of this report is to be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to transact any securities or financial instruments whether referred to herein or otherwise. This report is general in nature and has been prepared for information purposes only. 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