September 20, 2010 The Weekly ETF Report is based on ValuEngine Chief Market Strategist Richard Suttmeier's proprietary market analytics. Suttmeier combines his technical analysis expertise with ValuEngine's proprietary quantitative model data to cover the market's most popular Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs). ETFs are a popular and easy way for investors to track the performance of key indices, commodities, sectors, currencies, and other asset classes without the transaction and management fees associated with individual stock tickers or mutual funds. Suttmeier is famous for correctly calling the tech-stock bottom in 2002-2003, predicting the current housing/credit crisis back in 2005, and calling the most recent market bottom on March 6, 2009! He is a frequent guest on CNBC, FOX Business Channel, and other financial media. Market Overview Summary of VE Stock Universe Stocks Undervalued 65.18% Stocks Overvalued 34.82% Stocks Undervalued by 20% 33.56% Stocks Overvalued by 20% 11.81% The ValuEngine Universe consists of over 4500 US, foreign, and ADR tickers traded on US markets. Normal ranges for universe over and undervaluation typically run between 35-65%. Sector Overview Sector Change MTD YTD Valuation Last 12- MReturn P/E Ratio Basic Industries 0.26% 3.96% 19.30% 0.62% overvalued 28.27% 23.13 Capital Goods -0.29% 2.77% 11.21% 9.50% undervalued 6.89% 19.99 Consumer Durables 0.15% 3.66% 7.99% 14.35% undervalued 17.59% 18.25 Consumer Non-Durables -0.04% 2.56% 3.72% 7.15% undervalued 16.24% 16.50 Consumer Services 0.16% 4.55% 5.78% 8.85% undervalued 9.35% 20.38 Energy -0.35% 2.76% -2.29% 1.06% overvalued 20.75% 24.50 Finance 0.14% 2.53% 8.54% 6.70% undervalued 0.48% 17.79 Health Care 0.05% 4.38% 16.07% 14.31% undervalued 0.05% 21.10 Public Utilities 0.06% 0.57% -2.65% 2.56% undervalued 9.46% 17.90 Technology 0.36% 5.55% 10.65% 12.34% undervalued 15.48% 23.66 Transportation 0.19% 4.43% 8.10% 2.81% undervalued 10.12% 18.62
Ticker Exchange Traded Fund INDEX ETFs ETF Overview INDEX Current Price Suttmeier Says Value Levels Pivot Risky Levels DIA DIAMONDS TRUST SERIES I DJIA 106.07 Buy at Value 104.61 W 105.09 S 112.39 A DDM PROSHARES ULTRA DOW 30 DJIA 45.47 44.22 W 46.65 S DXD PROSHARES ULTRSHRT DOW30 DJIA 25.44 19.69 Q 27.61 M 35.04 S SPY SPDR TRUST SERIES 1 SP500 112.49 Buy at Value 110.19 W 117.81 S SSO PROSHARES ULTRA S&P 500 SP500 38.44 36.65 W 42.45 S SDS PROSHARES ULTRSRT S&P500 SP500 30.51 None 31.98 W 35.04 Q QQQQ POWERSHARES QQQ TRUST NASDAQ 46.60 Buy at Value 46.14 W 46.67 S None QLD PROSHARES ULTRA QQQ NASDAQ 63.45 60.21 S 63.46 A 68.26 A PSQ PROSHARES SHORT QQQ NASDAQ 39.80 None 41.39 S 43.06 M QID PROSHARES ULTRASHORT QQQ NASDAQ 15.37 None 16.71 W 19.18 S MYY PROSHARES SHRT MIDCP 400 39.04 None 39.48 M 44.40 S TWM PROSHARES ULTRA SHRT RUSS 2000 RUSSELL 2000 19.06 None 18.94 M 34.00 S SECTOR ETFs SECTOR XLB MATERIALS SELECT SECTOR SPDR FUN BASIC INDUSTRIES 32.73 Buy at Value 29.85 M 32.36 W 33.90 S XLI INDUSTRIAL SELECT SECTOR SPDR FU CAPITAL GOODS 30.70 Buy at Value 27.36 S 30.75 A 31.16 S XLY CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SELECT SE CONSUMER DURABLES 32.75 31.98 W 32.45 A 33.14 W XLP IYC CONSUMER STAPLES SELECT SECTOR S ishares Dow Jones U.S. Consumer Services Sector Index Fund CONSUMER NON- DURABLES 27.55 26.99 M 27.12 W 28.21 S CONSUMER SERVICES 59.68 58.00 W 59.10 M None XLE ENERGY SELECT SECTOR SPDR FUND ENERGY 53.89 Buy at Value 51.22 M 53.69 W 57.03 A XLF FINANCIAL SELECT SECTOR SPDR FUN FINANCE 14.61 Buy at Value 14.19 W 14.36 S 14.96 M SKF PROSHARES ULTRA SHRT FINANCIALS FINANCE 19.66 19.18 M 20.78 W 62.82 S XLV HEALTH CARE SELECT SECTOR SPDR F HEALTH CARE 29.94 28.38 M 29.85 S 30.88.S XLU UTILITIES SELECT SECTOR SPDR FUN PUBLIC UTILTIES 30.85 28.49 M 31.39 W XLK TECHNOLOGY SELECT SECTOR SPDR FU TECHNOLOGY 22.53 Buy at Value 21.45 W 22.59 S 23.18 S IYT ishares Dow Jones Transportation Average Index Fund TRANSPORTATION 80.33 Buy at Value 78.57 W 79.86 S 85.18 A EMERGING MARKET ETFs NATION EEM ISHARES MSCI EMERGING MKTS IDX F VARIOUS 43.02 Buy at Value 39.81 A 42.41 W 44.99 A FXI XINHUA CHINA 25 INDEX FUND CHINA 41.96 Buy at Value 37.57 M 39.25 A 44.53 A FIXED INCOME ETFs TLT ishares Lehman 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund 101.67 97.00 A 105.44 W COMMODITIES ETFs COMMODITY GLD SPDR GOLD TRUST GOLD 124.54 Buy at Value 119.37 S 123.15 S 125.18 W GSG ISHARES GSCI COMMOD INDX VARIOUS 29.03 26.85 M 28.87 W 36.67 A DUG PROSHARES ULTRA SHRT OIL&GAS OIL/GAS 60.92 29.68 S 61.27 W 65.03 Q
Index ETFs ETF DIA DDM DXD SPY SSO SDS QQQQ QLD PSQ QID MYY TWM 09/17/10 106.07 45.47 25.44 112.49 38.44 30.51 48.00 63.45 39.80 15.37 39.04 19.06 09/10/10 104.78 44.26 26.18 111.48 37.35 31.44 46.60 59.57 41.13 16.42 39.97 19.99 Weekly Change 1.29 1.21-0.74 1.01 1.09-0.93 1.40 3.88-1.33-1.05-0.93-0.93 December-08 104.07 43.81 29.47 111.44 38.24 35.05 45.75 59.48 43.67 19.04 44.44 25.19 YTD Change 2.00 1.66-4.03 1.05 0.20-4.54 2.25 3.97-3.87-3.67-5.40-6.13 52- Week High 112.58 51.33 38.32 122.12 45.70 45.27 50.65 72.19 51.32 26.48 51.20 33.83 52- Week Low 93.30 35.05 24.46 100.55 30.92 28.37 39.52 44.63 39.01 7.49 37.23 16.88 Value Levels 104.61 W 44.22 W 19.69 Q 110.19 W 36.65 W none 46.14 W 60.21 S none none none none 104.46 A 41.96 M 109.71 S 35.09 M 44.47 M 58.53 W Pivots 105.09 S 27.61 M 31.98 W 46.67 S 63.46 A 41.39 S 16.71 W 39.48 M 18.94 M 27.61 M 33.56 M 41.52 W 18.04 M 40.35 W 20.81 W Risky Levels 112.39 A 46.65 S 35.04 S 117.81 S 42.45 S 35.04 Q none 68.26 A 43.06 M 19.18 S 44.40 S 34.00 S 113.07 S 54.72 A 42.50 A 118.10 A 50.82 A 45.95 S 46.66 S 19.90 Q 49.55 S 43.83 S 5- Week MMA 104.02 43.64 26.80 110.09 36.60 32.48 46.01 58.36 41.80 17.01 40.49 20.43 5- Month MMA 101.32 41.57 30.29 107.79 35.46 36.52 44.22 54.89 44.69 20.02 43.53 24.34 Weekly MOJO 6.0 / 6.5 6.0 / 6.5 2.9 / 2.5 5.9 / 6.5 5.4 / 6.1 3.1 / 2.6 5.7 / 6.3 5.2 / 5.9 3.2 / 2.7 3.6 / 2.9 3.5 / 2.9 4.1 / 3.6 Monthly MOJO 7.5 / 7.0 7.2 / 6.7 0.9 / 1.9 7.3 / 6.6 6.8 / 6.1 1.1 / 1.6 7.7 / 7.1 7.2 / 6.5 1.2 / 1.7 1.9 / 2.6 1.2 / 1.5 0.8 / 1.1
Analysis and Scenarios: Index ETFs ETF Intermediate Long Term Technical Parameters DIA Positive Neutral DDM Positive Neutral DXD Negative Oversold SPY Positive Neutral SSO Positive Neutral SDS Negative Oversold QQQQ Positive Neutral QLD Positive Neutral PSQ Negative Oversold QID Negative Neutral MYY Negative Oversold TWM Negative Oversold DIA is above its 5-week MMA with rising MOJO, after ending August with declining monthly MOJO and above 5-month MMA. DDM is above its 5-week MMA with rising weekly MOJO, after ending August with declining monthly MOJO and above 5-month MMA. DXD is below its 5-week MMA with declining weekly MOJO, after ending August with oversold monthly MOJO and below 5-month MMA. SPY tested my weekly risky level at $113.26 last week.* SPY is above its 5-week MMA with rising weekly MOJO, after ending August with declining monthly MOJO and above 5-month MMA. SSO is above its 5-week MMA with rising weekly MOJO, after ending August with declining monthly MOJO and above 5-month MMA. SDS tested my weekly value level at $30.22 last week.* SDS is below its 5-week MMA with declining weekly MOJO, after ending August with oversold monthly MOJO and below 5-month MMA. QQQQ tested my weekly risky level at $47.12 last week.* QQQQ is above its 5-week MMA with rising weekly MOJO, after ending August with declining monthly MOJO and above 5-month MMA. QLD is above its 5-week MMA with rising weekly MOJO, after ending August with declining monthly MOJO and above 5-month MMA. PSQ tested my weekly value level at $40.39 last week.* PSQ is below its 5-week MMA with declining weekly MOJO, after ending August with oversold monthly MOJO and below 5-month MMA. QID tested my weekly value level at $15.91 last week.* QID is below its 5-week MMA with declining weekly MOJO, after ending August with rising monthly MOJO but below 5-month MMA. MYY is below its 5-week MMA with declining weekly MOJO, after ending August with oversold monthly MOJO and below 5-month MMA. TWM tested my monthly value level at $18.94 last week.* TWM is below its 5-week MMA with declining weekly MOJO, after ending August with oversold monthly MOJO and below 5-month MMA. *For more on trading with GTC Orders as well as the definitions for various technical trading terms, see the How to Trade discussion in the Terms and Conditions at the end of this document.
Sector ETFs ETF XLB XLI XLY XLP IYC XLE XLF SKF XLV XLU XLK IYT 09/17/10 32.73 30.70 32.75 27.55 59.68 53.89 14.61 19.66 29.94 30.85 22.53 80.33 09/10/10 32.82 30.40 32.29 27.52 58.63 54.52 14.53 20.14 29.77 31.44 21.74 79.72 Weekly Change -0.09 0.30 0.46 0.03 1.05-0.63 0.08-0.48 0.17-0.59 0.79 0.61 December-08 32.99 27.79 29.77 29.77 55.49 57.01 14.40 24.23 31.07 31.02 22.93 73.82 YTD Change -0.26 2.91 2.98-2.22 4.19-3.12 0.21-4.57-1.13-0.17-0.40 6.51 52- Week High 35.47 33.46 36.13 28.20 86.38 62.30 17.12 28.90 33.16 32.08 24.16 86.79 52- Week Low 27.67 24.76 25.81 24.67 49.44 48.56 13.29 16.71 27.49 25.76 19.71 63.36 Value Levels 29.85 M 27.36 S 31.98 W 26.99 M 58.00 W 51.22 M 14.19 W 19.18 M 28.38 M 28.49 M 21.45 W 78.57 W 28.64 S 23.45 A 55.64 A 9.57 S 26.17 Q 20.29 M 63.17 S Pivots 32.36 W 30.75 A 32.45 A 27.12 W 59.10 M 53.69 W 14.36 S 20.78 W 29.85 S 22.59 S 79.86 S 30.82 M 32.54 M 27.60 S 14.77 M 30.11 W 80.74 A Risky Levels 33.90 S 31.16 S 33.14 W 28.21 S none 57.03 A 14.96 M 62.82 S 30.88 S 31.39 W 23.18 S 85.18 A 34.40 W 35.20 A 64.95 S 66.95 A 33.19 A 32.38 A 5- Week MMA 31.99 29.88 31.75 27.08 57.83 53.60 14.38 20.71 29.26 30.79 21.77 78.39 5- Month MMA 30.94 28.57 30.31 26.36 55.88 53.39 14.30 25.16 29.11 29.64 21.28 74.87 Weekly MOJO 7.3 / 7.7 5.8 / 6.4 5.5 / 6.2 7.1 / 7.6 4.5 / 5.3 5.4 / 5.7 4.4 / 5.0 4.0 / 3.5 5.4 / 6.1 8.5 / 8.5 5.3 / 5.9 6.0 / 6.5 Monthly MOJO 6.8 / 6.4 7.7 / 7.2 7.8 / 7.2 7.7 / 7.3 6.4 / 5.5 6.1 / 5.4 6.9 / 6.0 0.8 / 1.4 6.2 / 5.3 6.3 / 6.4 7.4 / 6.6 7.8 / 7.4
Analysis and Scenarios: Sector ETFs ETF Intermediate Long Term Technical Parameters XLB Positive Neutral XLI Positive Neutral XLY Positive Neutral XLP Positive Neutral IYC Positive Neutral XLE Positive Neutral XLF Positive Neutral SKF Negative Oversold XLB is above its 5-week MMA with rising weekly MOJO, after ending August with declining monthly MOJO and above 5-month MMA. XLI is above its 5-week MMA with rising weekly MOJO, after ending August with declining monthly MOJO and above 5-month MMA. XLY is above its 5-week MMA with rising weekly MOJO, after ending August with declining monthly MOJO and above 5-month MMA. XLP is above its 5-week MMA with rising weekly MOJO, after ending August with declining monthly MOJO and above 5-month MMA. IYC tested my monthly risky level at $59.10 last week.* IYC is above its 5-week MMA with rising weekly MOJO, after ending August with declining monthly MOJO but above 5-month MMA. XLE is above its 5-week MMA with rising weekly MOJO, after ending August with declining monthly MOJO and above 5-month MMA. XLF tested my monthly risky level at $14.77 last week.* XLF is above its 5-week MMA with rising weekly MOJO, after ending August with declining monthly MOJO and above the 5-month MMA. SKF tested my weekly value level at $19.57 last week.* SKF is below its 5-week MMA with declining weekly MOJO, after ending August with oversold monthly MOJO and below 5-month MMA. XLV Positive Neutral XLU Overbought Positive XLK Positive Neutral IYT Positive Neutral XLV is above its 5-week MMA with rising weekly MOJO, after ending August with declining monthly MOJO and above 5-month MMA. XLU is above its 5-week MMA with rising weekly MOJO, after ending August with rising monthly MOJO and above 5-month MMA. XLK is above its 5-week MMA with rising weekly MOJO, after ending August with declining monthly MOJO and above 5-month MMA. IYT tested my annual risky level at $80.74 last week.* IYT is above its 5-week MMA with rising weekly MOJO, after ending August with declining monthly MOJO and above 5-month MMA. *For more on trading with GTC Orders as well as the definitions for various technical trading terms, see the How to Trade discussion in the Terms and Conditions at the end of this document.
Other ETFs ETF EEM FXI TLT GLD GSG DUG 09/17/10 43.02 41.96 101.67 124.54 29.03 60.92 09/10/10 42.26 40.79 102.32 121.73 29.06 60.29 Weekly Change 0.76 1.17-0.65 2.81-0.03 0.63 December-08 41.50 42.26 89.89 107.31 31.82 63.70 YTD Change 1.52-0.30 11.78 17.23-2.79-2.78 52- Week High 44.02 46.66 109.34 124.77 33.72 84.85 52- Week Low 35.21 36.24 87.30 96.00 25.95 51.71 Value Levels 39.81 A 37.57 M 97.00 A 119.37 S 26.85 M 29.68 S 38.13 M 30.61 Q 96.71 A 111.16 Q Pivots 42.41 W 39.25 A 123.15 S 28.87 W 61.27 W 40.62 S 123.78 M Risky Levels 44.99 A 44.53 A 105.44 W 125.18 W 36.67 A 65.03 Q 46.61 S 56.29 S 105.99 M 39.10 S 67.45 S 5- Week MMA 41.45 40.83 102.21 120.87 28.80 63.25 5- Month MMA 39.20 39.85 98.89 114.35 29.20 69.22 Weekly MOJO 7.7 / 8.0 6.1 / 6.3 7.4 / 6.7 6.4 / 6.9 5.2 / 5.3 3.3 / 2.9 Monthly MOJO 7.4 / 7.2 5.8 / 5.3 4.8 / 5.8 8.2 / 8.3 5.2 / 4.7 1.7 / 2.3
Analysis and Scenarios: Other ETFs ETF Intermediate Long Term Technical Parameters EEM Overbought Neutral FXI Positive Neutral TLT Negative Positive GLD Positive Overbought GSG Positive Negative DUG Negative Neutral EEM is above its 5-week MMA with overbought weekly MOJO, after ending August with declining monthly MOJO and above 5-month MMA. FXI is above its 5-week MMA with rising weekly MOJO, after ending August with declining monthly MOJO and above 5-month MMA. TLT is below its 5-week MMA with declining weekly MOJO, after ending August with rising monthly MOJO and above 5-month MMA. GLD tested my monthly risky level at $123.78 last week.* GLD is above its 5-week MMA with rising weekly MOJO, after ending August with overbought monthly MOJO and above 5-month MMA. GSG is above its 5-week MMA with rising weekly MOJO, after ending August with declining monthly MOJO and below 5-month MMA. DUG is below its 5-week MMA with declining weekly MOJO, after ending August with rising monthly MOJO and below 5-month MMA. *For more on trading with GTC Orders as well as the definitions for various technical trading terms, see the How to Trade discussion in the Terms and Conditions at the end of this document.
Terms and Definitions My methodology combines technical analysis with ValuEngine fundamental screens to develop opinions, predictions, and strategy suggestions. My objective is to help investors from novice to professional make better strategy decisions using the best available fundamental and technical data. A Value Level is a price at which investors should add to positions on share price weakness A Risky Level is a price at which investors should reduce holdings on share price strength. A Pivot is a price that should be a magnet during the time frame specified. This is a level at which to consider more aggressive positions adjustments. These levels are calculated in weekly (W), monthly (M), quarterly (Q), semiannual (S) and annual (A) time horizons, based on the past nine closes in each time horizon. My theory is that the closes over a nine-year period are the summation of all bullish and bearish events for that market or specific stock. These levels are the most important element of my Buy and Trade Strategy. How to Trade - If you want to buy an ETF at its value level or sell at a risky level, I suggest using good until canceled (GTC) orders to buy or sell at the levels shown in the ETF Overview. If the ETF opens below the GTC value level, you will trigger a buy at the open price. If the ETF opens above the risky level, you will trigger a sell at the open price. Technical Indicators: Positive Technicals - If an ETF has a weekly close above its five-week modified moving average (MMA) and its momentum is rising-- as indicated by a 12x3 weekly slow stochastic, then the ETF looks good-- positive --from a technical perspective. Negative Technicals - If an ETF has a weekly close below its five-week modified moving average (MMA) and its momentum is declining-- as indicated by a 12x3 weekly slow stochastic, then the ETF looks poor-- negative --from a technical perspective. MOJO - A term for Technical Momentum. We discuss MOJO for both weekly and monthly time frames. In the tables, MOJO represents the readings from the 12x3 slow stochastic. You read MOJO from left-to-right (last measure/current measure) and can determine the momentum for an ETF using the following guidelines: Overbought (OB): 12x3 weekly slow stochastic above 80 on a scale of zero to 100 Rising (RM): 12x3 weekly slow stochastic rising above 20, but is below 80 Flat (F): 12x3 weekly slow stochastic between 20 and 80, but not rising or declining Declining (DM): 12x3 weekly slow stochastic is declining below 80, but is above 20 Oversold (OS): 12x3 weekly slow stochastic is below 20 on a scale of zero to 100 Changes in status are noted in Italicized Bold, Red is Negative, Green is Positive. If a level was tested during the week, it is highlighted in Red in the tables of levels.