CHAPTER 3 POPULATION AND ECONOMIC CHARACTERISTICS INTRODUCTION Population trends in La Vista and its respective planning jurisdiction serve as valuable indicators of future development needs and patterns for the community and provide a basis for the realistic projection of the future population. The quantity, location and density of demographic features play an important role in shaping the details of various development plans to meet the needs of the community. The population trends and projections for the years 1966 through 2007 were studied and forecasted, utilizing a process of both trend analysis and popular consent. The La Vista Planning Steering Committee established a population growth goal for the city of 2.1 percent annually. To meet this goal, the City of La Vista would need to wisely allocate its remaining developable acres within its corporate limits. This population goal would also require the creation of additional jobs and housing stock for the city. GENERAL POPULATION TRENDS AND PROJECTIONS The analysis and projection of population are at the center of all planning decisions. This process assists in understanding important changes which have and will occur throughout the community's planning period. Estimating population size is critical to a community planning process. Further, projecting a community's population is extremely complex. Since projections are based on various assumptions about the future, they must be carefully analyzed and continually reevaluated due to the community's dynamic economic and social structure. 3.1
Table 3.1 identifies population trends and projections for the City of La Vista from 1966 to 2007 and Sarpy County from 1980 through 2007. It is estimated that the population of both the city and Sarpy County have reached current (1997) estimated populations of 11,966 and 115,690 respectively. TABLE 3.1 POPULATION TRENDS AND PROJECTIONS LA VISTA/SARPY COUNTY, NEBRASKA 1980-2007 Year Population Total Change Percent Annual Change Percent La Vista 1966 1970 1980 1990 1997 2007 3,497 4,858 9,588 9,840 11,966 14,500 +1,361 +4,730 +252 +2,126 +2,534 +38.9% +97.3% +2.6% +21.6% +21.1% +340 +473 +25 +303 +253 +9.7% +9.7% +0.3% +3.1% +2.1% Sarpy County 1980 1990 1997 2007 86,015 102,583 115,690 136,400 +16,568 +13,107 +20,710 +19.2% +12.7% +17.9% +1,657 +1,872 +2,958 +1.9% +1.8% +1.8% Source: Census of Population and Housing 1980, STF-1A 1990 Utilizing the 2.1 percent annual growth goal, the City of La Vista would experience an increase of 2,534 persons during the period 1997 to 2007, to produce a total population base of 14,500. Sarpy County would also increase in population an estimated 17.9 percent, or 20,710 persons by 2007, to reach a total population of 136,400. POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS For planning purposes, the various cohorts of population are important indicators of the special needs of a community. The cohorts of age, sex and family structure can assist in determining potential labor force and the need for housing, public facilities and other important local services. An analysis of age characteristics can be used to identify the potential need for public school, recreational areas and short- and long-term health care facilities. 3.2
Table 3.2 provides age distribution trends and projections for the City of La Vista. Between 1997 and 2007, each age category is expected to increase in population. The largest estimated increase will occur in the 33 to 54 age group. The median age increased from 23.6 years in 1980 to 27.4 years in 1990. By 2007, the median age in La Vista is expected to increase to 31.3 years. TABLE 3.2 POPULATION AGE DISTRIBUTION TRENDS AND PROJECTIONS LA VISTA, NEBRASKA 1980-2007 Age Group 1980 1990 Change 1997 2007 Change 18 and Under 3,914 3,407-507 3,685 4,038 +353 19-34 3,529 3,206-323 3,664 4,188 +524 35-54 1,785 2,499 +714 3,220 3,973 +753 55-61 190 361 +171 764 1,070 +306 62-74 140 279 +139 440 818 +378 75-84 29 73 +44 152 288 +136 85+ 1 15 +14 41 125 +84 TOTAL 9,588 9,840 +252 11,966 14,500 +2,400 Median Age 23.6 27.4 +3.8 28.5 31.3 +2.8 Source: Census of Population, 1980, 1990 During the next ten years, an increase in persons should occur in each elderly age category (55+ years). The largest increase should occur in the 62 to 74 year age group. Overall, persons age 55 and over are expected to increase 904 persons by 2007. 3.3
BIRTHS AND DEATHS Table 3.3 provides an analysis of birth and death trends in La Vista from 1985 to 1994. During this ten year period, La Vista experienced a net gain, with births exceeding deaths by 1,577 persons. This trend of net change is expected to continue during the next ten years to produce a net gain of approximately 1,360 persons. TABLE 3.3 BIRTHS AND DEATHS TRENDS AND PROJECTIONS LA VISTA, NEBRASKA 1985-2007 Year Births Deaths Net Change 1985 213 27 +186 1986 198 19 +179 1987 183 25 +158 1988 184 24 +160 1989 193 31 +162 1990 161 35 +126 1991 186 23 +163 1992 180 30 +150 1993 168 31 +137 1994 187 31 +156 TOTAL 1,853 276 +1,577 Annual Average 185 28 +157 1997-2007* 1,740 380 +1,360 Annual Average 174 38 +136 *Projections Source: Nebraska Department of Health, Division of Health Data Systems, 1994 3.4
RACE AND HISPANIC ORIGIN The ethnic diversity of the community was analyzed in the 1990 Census and the results are displayed in Table 3.4. In relation to race, 94.8 percent of the total 9,840 people were white. Hispanic origin comprised 3.1 percent of the total population. TABLE 3.4 RACE AND HISPANIC ORIGIN LA VISTA, NEBRASKA 1990 Race Number % of Total White 9,327 94.8% Black 209 2.1% Native American, Eskimo or Aleut 46 0.5% Asian or Pacific Islander 159 1.6% Other 99 1.0% TOTAL 9,840 100.0% Hispanic Origin 303 3.1% Source: Census of Population, STF-1A 1990 3.5
INCOME TRENDS AND PROJECTIONS HOUSEHOLD INCOME Table 3.5 identifies household income trends and projections in La Vista, Nebraska. In 1990, an estimated 65.9 percent of the La Vista households earned an annual income of $25,000 or more. By 2007, over 75 percent of all households are projected to earn annual incomes of $25,000+. The median household income is expected to increase from $44,050 in 1997 to $50,000 by 2007. Despite this increase in median income, by 2007 an estimated 40 to 47 percent of all households in La Vista will have an annual income of 80 percent or less of the Omaha Metro median income, or officially classified as "low- to moderate income." TABLE 3.5 HOUSEHOLD INCOME TRENDS AND PROJECTIONS LA VISTA, NEBRASKA 1990-2007 Income Group 1990 1997 2007 % of Change 1997-2007 Less than $10,000 170 132 102-22.7% $10,000 - $19,999 560 530 477-10.0% $20,000 - $34,999 1,291 1,597 2,005 +25.5% $35,000 - $49,999 895 1,277 1,906 +49.2% $50,000 or More 454 548 630 +14.9% TOTAL (Specified) 3,370 4,084 5,120 +25.4% Median Income: $31,836 $44,050 $50,000 +13.5% Source: Census of Population, STF-3A, 1990 3.6
ELDERLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME Table 3.6 presents household income trends and projections for persons 65 years of age and over in La Vista, Nebraska. All household income categories of more than $15,000 are expected to increase during the next ten years. The largest percentage increases anticipated to occur during this planning period will be the $35,000 and over income categories, with an overall expected increase of 203.2 percent. Despite an increase in annual income levels, by 2007, an estimated 55 to 62 percent of the senior households are expected to have an annual income of less than 80 percent of the county's median income, or officially classified as "low- to moderate income." TABLE 3.6 HOUSEHOLD INCOME, 65+ YEARS TRENDS AND PROJECTIONS LA VISTA, NEBRASKA 1990-2007 Income Group 1990 1997 2007 % of Change 1997-2007 Less than $10,000 22 19 14-26.3% $10,000 - $14,999 30 23 18-21.7% $15,000 - $34,999 81 170 388 +81.1% $35,000 - $49,999 29 62 180 +203.2% $50,000 or More 4 21 42 +100.0% TOTAL (Specified) 166 295 570 +93.2% Median Income: $23,650 $35,215 $44,755 +27.1% Source: Census of Population, STF-3A, 1990 3.7
SOCIAL SECURITY RECIPIENTS Table 3.7 identifies the number of persons receiving Social Security Income (SSI) and/or Supplemental Social Security Income (SSSI) in Sarpy County. A total of 8,310 persons received SSI in 1994. Of this total, 61 percent were retired workers, while 21.8 percent were under 65 years of age. In 1994, the total persons receiving social security income equalled an estimated 8 percent of the county population. TABLE 3.7 PERSONS RECEIVING SOCIAL SECURITY INCOME SARPY COUNTY, NEBRASKA Social Security Income (1994) Number of Beneficiaries Retirement Benefits Wives and Husbands 555 Retired Workers 5,065 Children 70 Survivor Benefits Widows and Widowers 975 Children 450 Disability Benefits Disabled Workers 800 Wives and Husbands 60 Children 335 TOTAL (December 1994) 8,310 Aged 65 or Older Men Women 2,250 3,250 TOTAL 6,500 Supplemental Security Income (1994) Aged (65+) 52 Blind 4 Disabled 189 TOTAL 245 Source: Department of Health and Human Services, Social Security Administration, 1994 3.8
A total of 245 people received Supplemental Social Security Income in 1994. This equalled about 0.2 percent of the total persons in Sarpy County. A total of 193, or 78.8 percent of the recipients were blind or disabled. This number identifies a special consumer group in the county in need of special services. PER CAPITA INCOME Table 3.8 identifies per capita income trends and projections for Sarpy County. The 1997 per capita income is estimated to be $22,500. By 2007, per capita income is expected to increase 33 percent, to $29,925. TABLE 3.8 PER CAPITA INCOME TRENDS AND PROJECTIONS SARPY COUNTY, NEBRASKA 1988-2007 Year Income % Change 1988 $14,164 1989 $15,208 +7.4% 1990 $15,646 +2.9% 1991 $16,169 +3.3% 1992 $16,518 +2.2% 1988-1992 $14,164-$16,518 +16.6% 1997-2007 $22,500 - $29,925 +33.0% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce, 1992 3.9
OWNER AND RENTER HOUSING COSTS Table 3.9 identifies housing costs as a percentage of household income in La Vista, in 1990, for both owner and renter households. A total of 29.6 percent of the renter households, 19.6 percent of the owner households and 23.7 percent of all households paid more than 30 percent of their annual income for housing costs. TABLE 3.9 OWNER AND RENTER HOUSING COSTS AS A PERCENTAGE OF HOUSEHOLD INCOME LA VISTA, NEBRASKA 1990 Income Categories Owner Households Renter Households All Households Less than $10,000 14 0 14 Less than 30 percent 41 127 168 30 percent or more $10,000 to $19,999 Less than 30 percent 73 117 190 30 percent or more 119 239 358 $20,000 to $34,999 Less than 30 percent 447 544 991 30 percent or more 201 38 239 $35,000 to $49,999 Less than 30 percent 639 202 841 30 percent or more 15 0 15 $50,000 or more Less than 30 percent 372 99 471 30 percent or more 0 0 0 TOTAL 1,921 1,366 3,287 All incomes Less than 30 percent 1,545 (80.4%) 962 (70.4%) 2,507 (76.3%) 30 percent or more 376 (19.6%) 404 (29.6%) 780 (23.7%) TOTAL (specified) 1,921 (100.0%) 1,366 (100.0%) 3,287 (100.0%) Source: Census of Population, STF-3A, 1990 3.10
EMPLOYMENT AND ECONOMIC TRENDS The most recent and comprehensive employment data available for Sarpy County was obtained from the Nebraska Department of Labor. Since these figures are only available on a countywide basis, a review and analysis of Sarpy County labor force statistics will need to provide an understanding of the economic activity occurring in and around the City of La Vista. However, the City of La Vista contributes a small percentage (estimated 10 percent) to the county workforce. Direct comparisons and projections based on county trends are an estimate at best. Evaluation of county trends can be useful to gain a perspective on regional employment patterns. LABOR FORCE AND EMPLOYMENT Table 3.10 depicts the labor force and employment for Sarpy County from 1980 to 2007. To accomplish the proposed 2.1 percent annual growth goal for La Vista, the County labor force would need to increase almost 24 percent, to a total of 71,991 workers by the end of the planning period. An additional estimated 13,721 jobs would need to be provided for county residents during the next ten years. TABLE 3.10 CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE AND EMPLOYMENT TRENDS AND PROJECTIONS SARPY COUNTY, NEBRASKA 1980-2007 1980 1990 1997 2007 Civilian Labor Force 33,699 48,189 59,580 74,065 Unemployment 1,393 870 1,310 2,074 Rate of Unemployment 4.1 1.8 2.2 2.8 Employment 32,306 47,319 58,270 71,991 Change in Total Employment Number Annual % Change % Annual 1980-1990 +14,490 +1,449 +43.0% +4.3% 1990-1997 +10,951 +1,564 +23.1% +3.3% 1997-2007 +13,721 +1,372 +23.5% +2.3% Source: Nebraska Department of Labor, Labor Market Information, 1991 3.11
EMPLOYMENT TYPE Table 3.11 identifies employment type in Sarpy County. From 1984 to 1994 the county experienced an overall increase of 30.7 percent in non-farm employed persons. From 1997 to 2007, the number of non-farm employed persons is expected to continue to increase as new jobs are created and small businesses expand and additional retail, industrial and construction jobs are added to the area's employment market. TABLE 3.11 WORK FORCE EMPLOYMENT BY TYPE SARPY COUNTY, NEBRASKA 1984-1994 Work Force 1984 1989 1994 % Change 1984-1989 % Change 1989-1994 NON-FARM EMPLOYMENT WAGE AND SALARY 13,705 20,114 26,283 +46.8% +30.7% MANUFACTURING 553 1,061 1,628 +91.9% +53.4% DURABLE 259 401 549 +54.8% +36.9% NON-DURABLE 294 660 1,079 +124.5% +63.5% NON-MANUFACTURING 13,152 19,053 24,655 +44.9% +29.4% CONSTRUCTION & MINING 599 609 771 +1.7% +26.6% TRANS., COMM., UTILITIES* 753 3,161 5,024 +320.0% +58.9% TRADE 3,298 4,878 6,097 +47.9% +24.9% Retail 3,047 4,248 5,292 +39.4% +24.6% Wholesale 251 630 805 +150.9% +27.8% FIN, INS. & REAL ESTATE** 620 785 834 +26.6% +6.2% SERVICES 2,395 3,680 6,129 +53.7% +66.5% GOVERNMENT 5,487 5,941 5,800 +8.3% -2.4% Federal 2,503 2,822 2,262 +12.7% -19.8% State 122 141 114 +15.6% -19.1% Local 2,862 2,977 3,424 +4.0% +15.0% *Transportation, Communication & Public Utilities **Financial, Insurance & Real Estate Source: Nebraska Department of Labor, Labor Market, Information, 1994 3.12
COMMUTER POPULATION Table 3.12 identifies the commuter population of La Vista and Sarpy County. The 1990 Census identified that 91.4 percent of La Vista's employed population and 49.3 percent of the county's employed population worked outside the city or county. TABLE 3.12 EMPLOYMENT IN COUNTY LA VISTA/SARPY COUNTY, NEBRASKA 1990 Residents Place of Employment Number Percent City of La Vista 468 8.6% Outside of La Vista 4,984 91.4% TOTAL 5,452 100.0% County Residents County of Sarpy 27,320 50.7% Outside of Sarpy County 26,550 49.3% TOTAL 53,870 100.0% La Vista Travel Time to Work Number 9 minutes or less 698 12.8% 10-19 minutes 1,854 34.0% 20-29 minutes 1,996 36.6% 30-39 minutes 745 13.7% 40 minutes or more 159 2.9% TOTAL 5,452 100.0% Source: Census of Population and Housing, STF-3A, 1990 ECONOMIC SUMMARY Overall, the economic outlook for La Vista could be considered "excellent" for the planning period (1997 to 2007). Economic opportunities will expand with the development of 96th Street and Giles Road. All types of development opportunities will exist. La Vista has historically been a "bedroom community" for the Omaha metropolitan area. However, development opportunities exist that could create additional jobs within La Vista. The stable economy and improved business development, coupled with an interest in establishing a community identity, makes La Vista a very attractive community in which to work and live. 3.13