COMPANY NOTE USA Healthcare Biotechnology AveXis (AVXS) Survey Says...Parents Would Be Interested In AVXS-101 Pivotal Trial Key Takeaway Since there are investor questions surrounding AVXS' ability to enroll a pivotal trial with AVXS-101 given the open access program with nusinersen, we decided to conduct our first-ever survey of parents of SMA pts. Their responses suggests they are excited about nusinersen but would be willing to enroll into the AVXS-101 trials especially if it is a single-arm trial. Parents were also attracted to AVXS-101 intravenous delivery. Parents Indifferent Between AVXS-101 Trial and Nusinersen OAP: We survey 7 parents of SMA pts that we were able to identify through the web and wanted to assess their interest on upcoming trials given current competitive trends. Based on the survey parents noted that they would be most interested in enrolling Type 1 infants into a single arm trial of AVXS-101 vs controlled study. In the event of a nusinersen open access program, parents were equally interested in opting for the AVXS-101 trial given they would be allowed to treat their child with nusinersen upon disease progression. This feedback highlights the upcoming Type B meeting with the FDA this month and its outcome expected in Nov as a key catalyst for AVXS shares. Additionally, this survey was built around the view that a nusinersen filing would occur by YE2016 which recently occurred with Biogen (BIIB; Hold) announcing its filing this week. AVXS-101 IV Dosing Could be a Meaningful Advantage: In question 4 we asked parents about the importance of various factors on their decision making. They highlighted the advantage of IV dosing vs IT dosing as the second most important factor. The most important factor was the parent s understanding and comfort with the treatment. However, parents did not put much weight on the one time dose compared to every 2-6 months or the frequency of which they would need to be traveling to see their doctor. Key Upcoming Catalysts for AVXS: AVXS will be presenting motor milestone data from the ongoing PI trial at the World Muscle meeting. We recently reported that a patient (E.06) who is walking in the trial. This month AVXS is meeting with the FDA for a Type B meeting to discuss the pivotal trial design. Mgmt has guided to releasing an update after meeting minutes possibly in Nov. Valuation/Risks Our $50 PT is DCF based. Risks include, clinical, regulatory, and commercial. USD Prev. 2015A Prev. 2016E Prev. 2017E Prev. 2018E Rev. (MM) -- 0.0 -- 0.0 -- 0.0 -- 0.0 EPS Mar -- (0.64) -- (1.24)A -- -- -- -- Jun -- (0.34) -- (0.68)A -- -- -- -- Sep -- (0.34) -- (0.70) -- -- -- -- Dec -- (0.50) -- (0.64) -- -- -- -- FY Dec -- (1.82) -- (3.11) -- (2.85) -- (2.91) FY P/E NM NM NM NM Financial Summary Price Performance 50 40 30 20 BUY Price target $50.00 Price $41.00^ Net Debt (MM): ($258.7) Cash & ST Invest. (MM): $258.7 Cash/Share: $9.43 Cash (MM): $258.7 Market Data 52 Week Range: $47.76 - $16.11 Total Entprs. Value (MM): $688.4 Market Cap. (MM): $947.1 Shares Out. (MM): 23.1 Float (MM): 13.6 Avg. Daily Vol.: 383,524 Biren Amin * Equity Analyst (212) 284-8162 bamin@jefferies.com Brandyn Itzkowitz * Equity Associate (212) 284-2535 bitzkowitz@jefferies.com Hugo Ong, Ph.D. * Equity Analyst (212) 323-3364 hong@jefferies.com Matthew Holt, Ph.D. * Equity Associate (212) 444-4314 mholt1@jefferies.com * Jefferies LLC EQUITY RESEARCH AMERICAS 10 FEB-16 APR-16 JUL-16 SEP-16 ^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwise noted. Please see analyst certifications, important disclosure information, and information regarding the status of non-us analysts on pages 9 to 13 of this report.
Survey Key Takeaways We performed a survey of parents who have had children with any type of SMA and asked them for their opinions of clinical trials in SMA Type 1 specifically. The questions were designed to assess how they think about the risks and benefits of enrolling a patient with SMA Type 1 into a clinical trial as well as what they view as important regarding clinical trials. We note that the survey had a small sample size (n=7) despite our multiple attempts to invite greater numbers to participate. We briefly summarize the key learnings from this survey: 1. Given some investors believe that the availability of nusinersen may prevent/slow patient enrolment in AVXS pivotal trial scheduled to initiate in 1H 17, we polled parents on their interest level. Parents value the option of nusinersen treatment but are also willing to enroll in clinical trials of AVXS-101. 2. A single arm trial of AVXS-101 was the most preferred clinical trial design for the upcoming PIII of AVXS-101. However, there were two opposite responses on two different questions on the preferred comparator of choice with responses to one question (Q2) suggesting standard of care (SOC) is preferred and another question (Q3) suggesting nusinersen as the comparator. It s obvious that parents do not want a placebo control. 3. Parents felt that their personal understanding of the clinical trial was the most important factor in decision making regarding enrolling an SMA Type 1 patient in a clinical trial, even above physician recommendation. But they also would be interested if a therapy such as AVXS-101 is delivered through the intravenous route vs a more invasive intrathecal administration as is the case with nusinersen. Survey Data Our survey asked parents of children with SMA to answer four questions regarding treatment of SMA Type 1 and clinical trials in SMA Type 1. These questions were designed to get a sense of how parents think about potential treatments for patients with SMA and their views towards clinical trials. Below we describe each question we posed and our views of the responses. Question 1: Please rank the following scenarios in terms of most preferred choice for an infant with SMA Type 1. Note, 1 is most preferred, and 5 is least preferred. We polled parents on whether they would opt for a nusinersen open access program or would opt for an AVXS-101 trial. Parents Indifferent Between Nusinersen OAP and AVXS-101 Trial: From this question we find that the average of the responses demonstrated that parents wanted to at least know they had access to nusinersen treatment. This is demonstrated by the indifference between parents joining the open access program for nusinersen and joining a clinical trial of AVXS-101 and then being treated with nusinersen if the disease continues to progress. The rest of the data was generally as expected with a clinical trial of just AVXS-101 being the next preferred choice, SOC in 3 rd place, and no treatment as the obviously least preferred option. Given the greater exposure the SMA community has to nusinersen over AVXS-101 as well as its more advanced clinical development stage and data from a Phase III trial potentially drive parental perceptions towards nusinersen. However, we find it interesting that so long as nusinersen is a potential treatment should AVXS-101 fail, parents were indifferent about joining an open access program compared page 2 of 13
to an AVXS-101 clinical trial. We feel that this reads incrementally positive for AVXS-101 because it indicates the nusinersen open access program is less likely to draw all of the treatable patients. This provides evidence that the worst case scenario of patients unlikely to enroll in an AVXS pivotal study because of the open-access program would likely not occur. Exhibit 1: Question 1 Please rank the following scenarios in terms of most preferred choice for an infant with SMA Type 1. Note, 1 is most preferred, 5 is least preferred Average Respondent 1 Respondent 2 Respondent 3 Respondent 4 Respondent 5 Respondent 6 Respondent 7 No treatment 4.7 3 5 5 5 5 5 5 Current standard of care (amino acid diet, valproic acid, etc.) 3.4 2 4 4 4 2 4 4 Join an open access program for Nusinersen, an experimental but well tested drug expected to be approved by FDA within 1 year (note there may be costs involved in joining this program not reimbursed by insurers) 2.1 1 1 1 3 4 2 3 Join a clinical trial for (AVXS-101), an experimental drug with a smaller amount of data than nusinersen 2.6 5 2 3 2 1 3 2 Join a clinical trial for (AVXS-101), and potentially opt for nusinersen if disease progresses 2.1 4 3 2 1 3 1 1 Source: Jefferies survey data Question 2: Currently AveXis is in the process of designing its Phase III trial. There are many possible designs for this trial, where AVXS-101 may be compared to other treatments. Please rank which comparator you would be most comfortable with and include a % likelihood of enrolling in each possibility. Note: if a comparator is listed the enrolled child has a 50% chance of being in that group. Note, 1 is most preferred, 5 is least preferred. Single Arm Trial is Key for Attracting Patients: In this question we get a glimpse into how parents analyse the risks inherent in specific clinical trial designs. The answer of AVXS-101 single arm trial being the most preferred design is clearly a positive for the development of AVXS-101. We found it interesting that the second choice would be a clinical trial that compares to SOC and not a trial of AVXS-101 head-to-head compared to nusinersen and could be a result of the small sample size. As expected, a clinical trial controlled against a placebo group is the least preferred clinical trial design. page 3 of 13
Exhibit 2: Question 2 Currently AveXis is in the process of designing its Phase III trial. There are many possible designs for this trial, where AVXS-101 may be compared to other treatments. Please rank which comparator you would be most comfortable with and include a % likelihood of enrolling you d have given each possibility. Note: if a comparator is listed the enrolled child has a 50% chance of being in that group. Note, 1 is most preferred, 5 is least preferred. Average Respondent 1 Respondent 2 Respondent 3 Respondent 4 Respondent 5 Respondent 6 Respondent 7 No comparator (all patients enrolled receive AVXS-101) 1.4 4 1 1 1 1 1 1 Placebo (50% of patients enrolled will receive no drug treatment) 3.7 3 4 4 4 3 4 4 Standard of care (50% of patients enrolled will receive valproic acid and amino acid diet) 2.3 2 3 2 3 2 2 2 Nusinersen (50% of patients enrolled will receive nusinersen) 2.6 1 2 3 2 4 3 3 Source: Jefferies survey data Question 3: In question 2 you ranked your preference for each trial design. Below please attach a percent probability that you would enroll a SMA Type 1 infant into each respective trial design. Note, each answer should range between 0% (would not enroll) and 100% (would always enroll). Controlled Trials v SOC or PBO Could Struggle to Enroll: The third question was asked to gain a better understanding of the strength of the opinion that was given in question 2. Question 2 provided only the option of an ordinal scale ranking preferred clinical trial designs. In question 3 we gave the parents the ability to disclose how strongly they felt about their choices in question 2. On average we found that parents continue to prefer a single arm trial of AVXS-101 meaningfully above alternatives. However, we note that respondents in this question prefer nusinersen as the comparator over SOC which was the second most preferred option in question 2. page 4 of 13
Exhibit 3: Question 3 In question 2 you ranked your preference for each trial design. Below please attach a percent probability that you would enroll a SMA Type 1 infant into each respective trial design. Note, each answer should range between 0% (would not enroll) and 100% (would always enroll). Average Respondent 1 Respondent 2 Respondent 3 Respondent 4 Respondent 5 Respondent 6 Respondent 7 No comparator (all patients enrolled receive AVXS-101) 76% 0% 100% 100% 100% 50% 100% 80% Placebo (50% of patients enrolled will receive no drug treatment) 21% 0% 50% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% Standard of care (50% of patients enrolled will receive valproic acid and amino acid diet) 21% 0% 0% 0% 0% 50% 100% 0% Nusinersen (50% of patients enrolled will receive nusinersen) 53% 50% 0% 50% 99% 50% 100% 20% Source: Jefferies survey data Question 4: Please rank from highly important (5) to not a factor in my decision making (1) the following criteria. Parents Value AVXS-101 s Ease of Dosing: The results from this question support AVXS-101 s value to SMA patients and their parents. The number one factor for parent s decision making was personal understanding and comfort with the treatment. This was not surprising to us given the disease, and the difficult choices that parents must make in treating children with SMA Type 1 disease. The ease of dosing, IV vs IT, was the second most meaningful criteria which we view positively for AVXS-101 in Type 1 patients where the IV dosing could be highly preferred. We note that the parents seem to care least about how often dosing is required or how often they need to see their physician. This could be due to the fact that these parents are frequently visiting their infant s doctor and dosing frequency of every 2-6 months vs only one time isn t a prohibitive requirement. Exhibit 4: Question 4 Please rank from highly important (5) to not a factor in my decision making (1) the following criteria. Average Respondent 1 Respondent 2 Respondent 3 Respondent 4 Respondent 5 Respondent 6 Respondent 7 The treatment be validated by the FDA through approval 3.6 5 1 2 5 4 3 5 Your physician recommending the specific treatment method 3.1 5 1 2 1 3 5 5 How often you would need to go to your physician for treatments 2.4 1 1 3 2 4 1 5 Your personal understanding and comfort with this treatment 4.0 5 3 3 3 5 4 5 Less frequent dosing (only one time compared to every 2-6 months) 2.9 3 1 1 4 5 1 5 Easier method of delivery (injection into blood stream compared to injection into spine) 3.7 3 1 4 5 5 3 5 Source: Jefferies survey data page 5 of 13
Valuation Our $50 PT is based on a DCF valuation model which assumes a WACC of 14% and outstanding shares of 27.4 million, driven by our risk-adjusted AVXS-101 worldwide peak sales of $526M in 2025. AveXis management continues to expect to provide quarterly updates on the progress of the ongoing PI clinical trial. Full data set from all 15 pts in the PI is expected in 1Q17 and would drive the start of pivotal trials in both the EU and US in 1H17. AveXis also plans to explore the use of AVXS-101 in SMA Type II and a trial in this population is expected to initiate in 2H16 utilizing intrathecal administration of AVXS-101. We currently do not provide any value for Type 2 and 3 SMA opportunity as there has been no clinical data generated. We assume a significant increase in R&D expenses in 2016 as AveXis initiates the trial in SMA Type II and continues investing in the ongoing PI in SMA Type I. We assume an R&D expense trend for 2016-2020 to be between $50-70 million. We estimate SG&A expense will increase to $35M in 2020 to support the launch of AVXS-101. Exhibit 1: DCF sensitivity analysis Terminal Growth Rate WACC -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 10% $71.26 $73.39 $75.99 12% $58.69 $59.88 $61.28 14% $49.56 $50.26 $51.07 16% $42.66 $43.09 $43.58 18% $37.29 $37.56 $37.87 Source: Jefferies estimates Risks Clinical Failure: As with all companies in biotechnology and pharmaceuticals developing treatments of the future, a clinical failure can lead to delays in approval or possibly discontinuation of programs. AveXis relies on the success of AVXS-101 for SMA, currently the only product in the pipeline. Regulatory Failure: The FDA could determine the data produced by AveXis is inadequate and could delay approval. Any delays in approval timelines could impact our earnings estimates, price target, and/or rating. Commercial Failure: We currently project $323 million (risk-adjusted) in U.S. sales for AVXS-101 in 2030. Our estimates may rely on the success of the company/partners to receive drug reimbursement from private/public payers. Financing Risks: We expect AveXis to have adequate cash through commercialization of AVXS-101. However if additional trials or drugs are tested AveXis and may need additional financing(s) to fund its R&D programs and a sales and marketing infrastructure. The company could partner AVXS-101 ex-u.s. licensing rights; however, we currently do not assume this as our base case. page 6 of 13
Exhibit 2: AVXS Income Statement Avexis Quarterly Income Statement (All values in $MM except EPS and average shares) 2015A 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E FY 1QA 2QA 3QE 4QE FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY Revenue: U.S. Revenues 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 69.8 164.5 284.9 310.8 312.7 314.6 316.4 318.0 319.6 321.2 322.5 Ex- U.S. Revenues 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 47.0 110.7 191.7 209.1 210.4 211.6 212.9 214.0 215.0 216.1 217.0 Total revenue, net 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 $ 116.8 $ 275.3 $ 476.6 $ 519.9 $ 523.0 $ 526.2 $ 529.3 $ 532.0 $ 534.6 $ 537.3 $ 539.5 Costs and expenses: Cost of goods sold 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 17.5 33.0 57.2 62.4 62.8 52.6 52.9 53.2 53.5 53.7 53.9 Research & development 27.5 16.1 10.4 11.7 12.3 50.4 59.0 62.0 65.1 68.3 69.0 51.8 49.2 46.7 44.4 42.2 42.2 42.2 42.2 42.2 Selling, general & administrative 11.1 4.8 5.4 5.2 5.3 20.7 21.8 22.9 24.0 34.5 39.7 41.7 43.7 45.9 48.2 50.6 53.2 55.8 58.6 61.5 Royalties to NCH and ReGgenX Bio 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.4 16.5 33.4 39.0 39.2 39.5 39.7 39.9 40.1 40.3 40.5 Amortization 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total operating expenses 38.6 20.9 15.8 16.9 17.6 71.2 80.8 84.8 89.1 126.8 158.2 184.0 194.3 194.6 184.7 185.4 188.4 191.5 194.8 198.1 Income (loss) from operations (38.6) (20.9) (15.8) (16.9) (17.6) (71.2) (80.8) (84.8) (89.1) (10.0) 117.0 292.6 325.6 328.4 341.5 343.9 343.6 343.1 342.5 341.3 Other income (expense): Miscellaneous (expense) income 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Interest income 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 Interest expense 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net profit (loss) before income taxes (38.5) (20.8) (15.7) (16.9) (17.6) (71.0) (80.6) (84.6) (88.8) (9.7) 117.3 292.8 325.8 328.6 341.7 344.1 343.8 343.3 342.7 341.6 Income tax expense (benefit) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.7 58.5 114.0 114.9 119.5 120.4 120.2 120.1 119.9 119.5 Income tax (%) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 35.0% 35.0% 35.0% 35.0% 35.0% 35.0% 35.0% 35.0% Loss from discontinued operations, net of tax 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Loss from sale of discontinued operations, net of tax 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net Income (GAAP) (38.5) (20.8) (15.7) (16.9) (17.6) (71.0) (80.6) (84.6) (88.8) (9.7) 105.6 234.3 211.9 213.7 222.2 223.8 223.5 223.2 222.9 222.1 EPS, GAAP Basic (5.43) (1.24) (0.68) (0.70) (0.64) (3.11) (2.85) (2.91) (2.96) (0.32) 3.32 7.15 6.28 6.15 6.21 6.07 5.89 5.71 5.53 5.35 Diluted $ (5.43) $ (1.24) $ (0.68) $ (0.70) $ (0.64) $ (3.11) $ (2.85) $ (2.91) $ (2.96) $ (0.32) $ 3.32 $ 7.15 $ 6.28 $ 6.15 $ 6.21 $ 6.07 $ 5.89 $ 5.71 $ 5.53 $ 5.35 Weighted average share- Basic 7.1 16.8 23.0 24.0 27.4 22.8 28.3 29.1 30.0 30.9 31.8 32.8 33.7 34.8 35.8 36.9 38.0 39.1 40.3 41.5 Weighted average share- Diluted 7.1 16.8 23.0 24.0 27.4 22.8 28.3 29.1 30.0 30.9 31.8 32.8 33.7 34.8 35.8 36.9 38.0 39.1 40.3 41.5 Source: Jefferies estimates, company data page 7 of 13
Exhibit 3: AVXS DCF Analysis Avexis Discounted Cash Flow Analysis (All values in $MM) 2013A 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E Sales 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 116.8 275.3 476.6 519.9 523.0 526.2 529.3 532.0 534.6 537.3 539.5 Operating Expenses 9.4 15.4 38.6 71.2 80.8 84.8 89.1 126.8 158.2 184.0 194.3 194.6 184.7 185.4 188.4 191.5 194.8 198.1 EBIT (9.4) (15.4) (38.6) (71.2) (80.8) (84.8) (89.1) (10.0) 117.0 292.6 325.6 328.4 341.5 343.9 343.6 343.1 342.5 341.3 (-): Taxes 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.7 58.5 114.0 114.9 119.5 120.4 120.2 120.1 119.9 119.5 EBIAT (9.4) (15.4) (38.6) (71.2) (80.8) (84.8) (89.1) (10.0) 105.3 234.1 211.7 213.5 222.0 223.5 223.3 223.0 222.6 221.9 (+):Depreciation 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 (+):FAS-123 Options 0.0 1.2 5.3 42.5 44.6 46.9 49.2 63.4 63.4 69.7 76.7 80.5 84.5 88.8 93.2 97.9 0.0 0.0 (-): Capital expenditures (0.0) (0.0) (0.2) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 (-): Changes in working capital 0.0 4.0 (0.7) 0.6 2.0 3.0 5.0 3.3 3.6 3.6 3.2 2.5 1.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Unlevered free cash flow (9.4) (18.1) (32.4) (29.3) (38.2) (41.0) (44.9) 50.1 165.1 300.2 285.1 291.5 305.1 312.3 316.5 320.9 222.6 221.9 Source: Jefferies estimates, company data page 8 of 13
Company Description AveXis, Inc. is a biotechnology company headquartered in Bannockburn Illinois, specializing in gene therapies for the treatment of Spinal Muscular Atrophy (SMA). The company s lead program is AVXS-101, an intravenous (IV) gene therapy treatment for SMA. AVXS-101 is currently being evaluated in a Phase I open-label dose escalation trial run out of Nationwide Children s Hospital (NCH) in Columbus, OH and interim clinical data has been released from this trial to provide AVXS-101 s early proof of concept in patients with SMA Type 1 supporting ongoing investigation. AveXis also expects to develop AVSX-101 for intrathecal dosing which could expand development into less severe types of SMA, Type 2 and 3. Analyst Certification: I, Biren Amin, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and subject company(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report. I, Brandyn Itzkowitz, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and subject company(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report. I, Hugo Ong, Ph.D., certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and subject company(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report. I, Matthew Holt, Ph.D., certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and subject company(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report. As is the case with all Jefferies employees, the analyst(s) responsible for the coverage of the financial instruments discussed in this report receives compensation based in part on the overall performance of the firm, including investment banking income. We seek to update our research as appropriate, but various regulations may prevent us from doing so. Aside from certain industry reports published on a periodic basis, the large majority of reports are published at irregular intervals as appropriate in the analyst's judgement. Investment Recommendation Record (Article 3(1)e and Article 7 of MAR) Recommendation Published, 18:30 ET. September 27, 2016 Recommendation Distributed, 18:30 ET. September 27, 2016 Recommendation Recalled, 18:30 ET. September 27, 2016 Recalled Recommendation Distributed, 00:00 ET. Recommendation Recalled, 10:12 ET. Recalled Recommendation Distributed, 10:12 ET. Company Specific Disclosures Jefferies Group LLC makes a market in the securities or ADRs of AveXis, Inc.. Jefferies Group LLC makes a market in the securities or ADRs of Biogen Inc.. Jefferies Group LLC, its affiliates or subsidiaries expect to receive or intend to seek compensation for investment banking services from AveXis, Inc. within the next three months. Within the past 12 months, Jefferies Group LLC, its affiliates or subsidiaries has received compensation from investment banking services from AveXis, Inc.. Within the past twelve months, AveXis, Inc. has been a client of Jefferies LLC and investment banking services are being or have been provided. Jefferies Group LLC, its affiliates or subsidiaries has acted as a manager or co-manager in the underwriting or placement of securities for AveXis, Inc. or one of its affiliates within the past twelve months. Explanation of Jefferies Ratings Buy - Describes securities that we expect to provide a total return (price appreciation plus yield) of 15% or more within a 12-month period. Hold - Describes securities that we expect to provide a total return (price appreciation plus yield) of plus 15% or minus 10% within a 12-month period. Underperform - Describes securities that we expect to provide a total return (price appreciation plus yield) of minus 10% or less within a 12-month period. The expected total return (price appreciation plus yield) for Buy rated securities with an average security price consistently below $10 is 20% or more within a 12-month period as these companies are typically more volatile than the overall stock market. For Hold rated securities with an average security price consistently below $10, the expected total return (price appreciation plus yield) is plus or minus 20% within a 12-month period. For Underperform rated securities with an average security price consistently below $10, the expected total return (price appreciation plus yield) is minus 20% or less within a 12-month period. NR - The investment rating and price target have been temporarily suspended. Such suspensions are in compliance with applicable regulations and/ or Jefferies policies. CS - Coverage Suspended. Jefferies has suspended coverage of this company. page 9 of 13
NC - Not covered. Jefferies does not cover this company. Restricted - Describes issuers where, in conjunction with Jefferies engagement in certain transactions, company policy or applicable securities regulations prohibit certain types of communications, including investment recommendations. Monitor - Describes securities whose company fundamentals and financials are being monitored, and for which no financial projections or opinions on the investment merits of the company are provided. Valuation Methodology Jefferies' methodology for assigning ratings may include the following: market capitalization, maturity, growth/value, volatility and expected total return over the next 12 months. The price targets are based on several methodologies, which may include, but are not restricted to, analyses of market risk, growth rate, revenue stream, discounted cash flow (DCF), EBITDA, EPS, cash flow (CF), free cash flow (FCF), EV/EBITDA, P/E, PE/growth, P/CF, P/FCF, premium (discount)/average group EV/EBITDA, premium (discount)/average group P/E, sum of the parts, net asset value, dividend returns, and return on equity (ROE) over the next 12 months. Jefferies Franchise Picks Jefferies Franchise Picks include stock selections from among the best stock ideas from our equity analysts over a 12 month period. Stock selection is based on fundamental analysis and may take into account other factors such as analyst conviction, differentiated analysis, a favorable risk/reward ratio and investment themes that Jefferies analysts are recommending. Jefferies Franchise Picks will include only Buy rated stocks and the number can vary depending on analyst recommendations for inclusion. Stocks will be added as new opportunities arise and removed when the reason for inclusion changes, the stock has met its desired return, if it is no longer rated Buy and/or if it triggers a stop loss. Stocks having 120 day volatility in the bottom quartile of S&P stocks will continue to have a 15% stop loss, and the remainder will have a 20% stop. Franchise Picks are not intended to represent a recommended portfolio of stocks and is not sector based, but we may note where we believe a Pick falls within an investment style such as growth or value. Risks which may impede the achievement of our Price Target This report was prepared for general circulation and does not provide investment recommendations specific to individual investors. As such, the financial instruments discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors and investors must make their own investment decisions based upon their specific investment objectives and financial situation utilizing their own financial advisors as they deem necessary. Past performance of the financial instruments recommended in this report should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future results. The price, value of, and income from, any of the financial instruments mentioned in this report can rise as well as fall and may be affected by changes in economic, financial and political factors. If a financial instrument is denominated in a currency other than the investor's home currency, a change in exchange rates may adversely affect the price of, value of, or income derived from the financial instrument described in this report. In addition, investors in securities such as ADRs, whose values are affected by the currency of the underlying security, effectively assume currency risk. Other Companies Mentioned in This Report Biogen Inc. (BIIB: $314.53, HOLD) page 10 of 13
Notes: Each box in the Rating and Price Target History chart above represents actions over the past three years in which an analyst initiated on a company, made a change to a rating or price target of a company or discontinued coverage of a company. Legend: I: Initiating Coverage D: Dropped Coverage B: Buy H: Hold UP: Underperform For Important Disclosure information on companies recommended in this report, please visit our website at https://javatar.bluematrix.com/sellside/ Disclosures.action or call 212.284.2300. Distribution of Ratings IB Serv./Past 12 Mos. Rating Count Percent Count Percent BUY 1097 51.99% 321 29.26% HOLD 851 40.33% 164 19.27% UNDERPERFORM 162 7.68% 17 10.49% page 11 of 13
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