ALUMINIUM Japan P1020A cif 95-105 95-105 Shanghai P1020A in-whs 95-105 95-105 MJP spot premium unchanged, backwardation in LME July/Aug spread widened to $43 on Tuesday from $39/t a week prior, continuing to pressure spot market lower. Concern that Australian metal - which is not subject to duty under US Section 232 - could head to US and tighten Asian market is capping big downsides in premium. Q3 MJP settled at $132/t in June with more than 40kt deals reported, but some participants say little influence on spot market due to backwardation in spreads. Caution remains due to uncertainty around US sanctions on UC Rusal, with Japanese banks still reluctant to finance Russian metal. Premium stable amid big import loss and ample stock. Domestic market unfazed by LME backwardation. Spot deals sparse. London vs SHFE import loss was at $447/t on July 9 - last week s average was $492/t. SHFE aluminium stocks fell 3,379t to 932,815t as of July 6. Shanghai P1020A cif 99 99 See aluminium ingots Shanghai bonded. Shanghai P1020A cif 95-105 95-105 See aluminium ingots Shanghai bonded. Taiwan P1020A cif 90-110 95-115 Singapore P1020A fob 100-115 100-115 Republic of Korea P1020A cif MKP duty-free 100 100 See cif MKP range. Republic of Korea P1020A South Korea duty-free fca 105-115 105-115 Malaysia P1020A fob 100-115 100-115 Republic of Korea P1020A cif 90-105 90-105 South East Asia P1020A warrants in-whs 5-15 5-15 Premium eases slightly in quiet market, with no new deals reported. Offers heard at $70-80/t but no deals at this level. Physical demand remains weak, backwardation in LME July/Aug spread keeps buying interest low. Premium unchanged amid sluggish physical demand. Backwardation in nearby spreads putting pressure on premium, with numbers as low as $70-95/t indicated in the market but no deals reported at these levels. Premium unchanged, spot business very thin as market under pressure from tight LME spreads. Supply in South Korea remains abundant due to high stocks, recent surge in Chinese imports. Premium unchanged amid sluggish physical demand, backwardation in LME spreads. Premium unchanged due to backwardation in nearby spreads, lackluster demand in most of Asia. Offer heard at $110/t but no deals reported at that level. Premium stable with tight spreads continuing to discourage spot interest. Assessments remained broadly within range. Backwardation in nearby LME spreads remains in place, with July/Aug at $43/t and C/3M at $24.50. LME 3M price has edged back toward $2,100/t, while total live stocks are up 27,950t from last week. East Asia P1020A warrants in-whs 5-15 5-15 See Southeast Asia aluminium warrants. Antwerp P1020A in-whs DUP 78-88 80-88 Antwerp P1020A in-whs DP 148-158 150-158 Vlissingen P1020A in-whs DUP 78-88 80-88 See Antwerp duty-unpaid. Vlissingen P1020A in-whs DP 148-158 150-158 See Antwerp duty-paid. Italy P1020A fca DP 210-230 220-230 JULY 10, 2018 Premium moves lower in line with Rotterdam duty-unpaid premium. Antwerp still seen by most as $2/t below Rotterdam premium on top end due to higher costs. Premium falls in line with Rotterdam duty-paid premium. Top end of Antwerp range seen $2/t below Rotterdam premium due to higher costs. Premium falls, widens. Market remains under pressure from backwardation in July/Aug spread, lower Rotterdam premium. Deals for small parcels possible just below range but majority of market sees $210/t as low point for now. Offers reported up to $245/t for post-july, when backwardation in spreads is expected to ease. Market in Italy less tight, with more metal expected to arrive in over next few weeks. Spain P1020A fca DP 210-230 220-230 Little activity reported but premium falls in line with rest of Europe. IT IS A VIOLATION OF AMM COPYRIGHT TO PHOTOCOPY/DISTRIBUTE THIS PRODUCT
ALUMINUM (cont'd) Turkey P1020A cif DUP 130-140 135-145 Premium declines, follows trend of other European aluminium premiums. Quiet market continues, lack of business reported. Rotterdam P1020A in-whs DUP 84 85 See Rotterdam low-high range. Rotterdam P1020A in-whs DUP 78-90 80-90 Rotterdam P1020A in-whs DP 148-160 150-160 Wide backwardation in July-Aug LME spread has led to some participants selling small parcels in the mid-$70s/t for very nearby deliveries, making below $80/t now possible for some. However, a deal at $85/t and offers at $90/t and above are capping decline. Metal Bulletin's four-week delivery window, stated in the methodology, means that data is now being collected for post-july deliveries. As a result, participants pricing in carrying costs through July-Aug backwardation of $40/t. Wide backwardation putting pressure on very nearby business, but support of business after July leading to wider range. Premium expected to rebound after August. Range edges down, widens. Widening backwardation on spreads post-july, lower duty-unpaid Rotterdam premium continue to pressure market. Deals for 2019 reported up to $30/t above range, with traders expecting premium to rebound post-july after backwardation. United States P1020A warrants in-whs 115-125 115-125 Detroit stocks closed at 47,900t, with 36,350t on warrant. Midwest United States P1020A dlvd DUP 19.75-20.5 cents/lb 20-20.75 cents/lb Brazil P1020A dlvd 450-525 450-525 Brazil P1020A cif 210-230 210-230 COPPER Continued quiet spot market activity, backwardation in LME spreads allowing the few spot buyers to negotiate premium below 20 cents/lb. Range has widened as some traders refuse to accept premium dropping below understood base replacement cost level of 20-20.5 cents/lb. Premium unchanged as quiet spot activity keeps range unchallenged. Trucking rates still elevated. There is sentiment that demand will stay weak through the third quarter. Material continues to trade within range. Larger producers are securing rates at lower end of the range. Market participants expect demand to weaken in winter months and thus expect some downward pressure on premium. Shanghai grade A in-whs 71 72 See Shanghai, grade A, in-warehouse. Shanghai grade A in-whs 63-78 63-79 LME July-Aug spread at $6/t backwardation continues to dampen buying interest, although C/3M returns to $7/t contango. China market enters slack season for production in July, which also dents import interest. Shanghai grade A ER in-whs 70-78 70-79 See Shanghai, grade A, in-warehouse. Shanghai grade A SX-EW in-whs 63-65 63-67 See Shanghai, grade A, in-warehouse. Shanghai grade A cif 69 70 See Shanghai copper cif low-high. Shanghai grade A cif 60-75 62-77 Shanghai grade A ER cif 68-75 70-77 See Shanghai, grade A, cif. Shanghai grade A SX-EW cif 60-64 62-65 See Shanghai, grade A, cif. Republic of Korea grade A cif 67 67 South East Asia grade A cif 72-82 75-85 Japan grade A cif 65-75 65-75 Taiwan grade A cif 65-75 65-75 Premium drifts lower with less appetite in the Chinese market for imports. Import losses between SHFE and LME at $69.90/t vs $89.71/t on July 3. See South Korea, copper premium, grade A, cathode, cif, low-high, $ per tonne. Premium drops to one-month low. Demand remains solid, with rod mills in region filling order books in light of Sterlite Copper's absence from market. Supply to region as yet unaffected by smelters Sterlite, Pasar and Saganoseki having production issues. Consumers favor ASEAN country duty-free brands. Premium basis cif Nhava Shiva, India, is being bid by domestic consumers at $100/t, down from $130-140/t two months ago. Premium stable in quiet market. Japanese smelters have sold most of their annual production already. PPC s Saganoseki smelter will close for two weeks in July for unplanned maintenance. Japanese cathodes sold duty-free to India, but spot availability slim. Premium flat, Taiwanese buyers not yet in spot market despite declining prices. IT IS A VIOLATION OF METAL BULLETIN COPYRIGHT TO PHOTOCOPY/DISTRIBUTE THIS PRODUCT PAGE 2
COPPER (cont'd) Republic of Korea grade A cif 60-75 60-75 South East Asia grade A warrants in-whs 5-15 5-15 East Asia grade A warrants in-whs 5-15 5-15 See Southeast Asia warrants. Rotterdam grade A cif 42-50 42-50 Thin spot trade in South Korea keeps premium unchanged. Interest in off-grade material seen in market. Premium unchanged with increased reports of more copper availability in market. Trade tensions and strong dollar index continue to pressure 3M price, pushing it below $6,300/t for first time in just under a year. Total on-warrant stocks for Asia are down 1,500t since last week. Premium unchanged with physical market thinning during summer months. Consumers still not actively buying on spot despite price diving to one-year low in past week. Premium supported as nearby LME spread tightness eases. July/Aug still at $6/t backwardation but LME C/July at $5/t contango, C/3M at $7/t contango. On-warrant stock up by 225t from a week ago to 15,750t on Tuesday. Italy grade A cif 65 65 See Leghorn, copper premium, cif, low-high. Germany grade A dlvd 90-95 90-95 Leghorn grade A cif 60-70 60-70 North Europe grade A warrants in-whs 10-15 10-15 Southern Europe grade A warrants in-whs 10-15 10-15 See North Europe warrants. Midwest United States grade A DDP 7-7.5 cents/lb 6.5-7 cents/lb United States grade A warrants in-whs 10-15 10-15 LEAD India 99.97% cif 50-65 50-65 Premium remains high despite market approaching quiet summer demand season. Premium flat on limited spot trade. No on-warrant LME stock in Leghorn as of Tuesday. Non-reg grade A cathodes offered at $60/t, LME reg brands at $70/t. Premium range remains stable after LME C/3M spread shifted back into a contango of $7/t, subsequently easing selling pressure. Assessments within range across the board, while demand continues to be low against escalating trade tensions. Live copper stocks in Europe down 2,975t this week. Premium continues to rise on costly freight, negative arb between CME, LME. July offers heard as high as 13 cents/lb, although few deals finalized there with spot market not particularly active. Copper participants warn that trucking issue likely to be unsolved for remainder of year. Total CME warehousing stocks dipped to 221,842 short tons, down minimally from last week. Premium flat, Iranian units still preferred to African units due to substantially shorter shipment period. India 99.99% cif 160-170 160-170 LME 3M lead price dropped 7.6% in a month, to $2,290 on Tuesday. South East Asia 99.97% cif 65-85 65-85 South East Asia 99.99% cif 120-140 120-140 Taiwan 99.97% cif 85-100 85-100 Taiwan 99.99% cif 135-150 135-150 See lead min 99.97%. South East Asia 99.97% warrants in-whs 10-20 10-20 East Asia 99.97% warrants in-whs 10-20 10-20 See Southeast Asia warrants. Rotterdam 99.97% fca DP 65-75 65-75 Rotterdam 99.99% fca DP 160-180 160-180 Premium unchanged, market well covered under long-term contracts. Iranian exporters are shipping contractual tonnages to Southeast Asia punctually - markets previously expressed fears over contract forfeits due to local currency drop. Premium stable after last week's $10/t gain. Asian markets eyeing continued imports into China with Aug arbitrage still at $60/t. Higher premium reported in markets such as Bangladesh, Thailand. Premium flat, few deals reported as buyers are well covered by long-term contracts. Premium unchanged, assessments remain broadly within range. Market participants reporting ongoing lack of activity in market. LME 3M price has dipped to $2,300/t region. LME C/3M spread widened to $7/t contango. Premium unchanged on minimal spot trading. Secondary material remains well supplied in Europe despite dwindling primary stocks. Live LME stock levels in Rotterdam increase by 1,250t from a week ago to 18,100t, 23,025t of LME lead canceled in Antwerp. Live LME stocks there have dwindled to 4,450t. Supply of 99.99% lead ingots remains tight in Europe, with limited availability of spot tonnages. Major producers said to be sold out of spot tonnages. Producer Recylex starts hot commissioning of new reduction furnace at Weser-Metall smelter in Germany. IT IS A VIOLATION OF METAL BULLETIN COPYRIGHT TO PHOTOCOPY/DISTRIBUTE THIS PRODUCT PAGE 3
LEAD (cont'd) Italy 99.97% fca DP 110-120 110-120 North Europe 99.97% warrants in-whs 10-15 10-15 Southern Europe 99.97% warrants in-whs 10-15 10-15 See North Europe warrants. United States 99.97% warrants in-whs 20-30 20-30 No reported tonnes in the US. Midwest United States 99.99% DDP 11-13 cents/lb 11-13 cents/lb Premium stable ahead of summer lull. LME live lead stock in Leghorn down 100t from a week ago at 5,525t as of Tuesday. Premium stable, participants report low demand for lead warrants in Europe as market remains quiet. Assessments stay within range, spot activity remains thin. Live lead stocks for Europe stable at 91,450t, 3M price edges toward $2,300/t Premium unchanged, market dealing with slow summer months, which is capping upside. Until spot demand increases, premium will stay in current range. Midwest United States 99.97% DDP 9-11 cents/lb 9-11 cents/lb See rationale for lead premium 99.99% purity. NICKEL Shanghai 99.80% in-whs 165 155 Premium rose, buyers' appetite boosted by narrowing arbitrage loss. Shanghai Full plates in-whs 160-170 140-170 Shanghai 99.80% cif 155 150 Shanghai Full plates cif 150-160 150-160 South East Asia briquettes warrants in-whs 10-15 10-15 Premium range tightens as trading volumes have picked up on narrowing arbitrage. Import loss between most-traded contract on Wuxi and three-month contract on LME narrowed to around $32/t on July 9 vs $92/t last week, according to traders calculations. Traders assess full opening of import window might be in mid-july. SHFE nickel stocks dipped for the sixth consecutive month to 24,367t as of July 6, down 2,630t - or 9.7% - from last week. Market participants eyeing import window, which has remained closed since China raised import taxes this year. No long-term contract for third-quarter Nornickel full plates has been signed, according to market participants. Traders have witnessed fewer cargoes arrive in Chinese ports, and this will be partially offset by sufficient stocks in bonded warehouse when import window opens. Metal Bulletin assessed nickel stocks at Shanghai-bonded zone stood at 40,000-45,000t as of July 2, up from 30,000-35,000t from last month. Premium stable with assessments staying broadly within range. Nickel's LME 3M price is drifting lower at $14,060/t, while live on-warrant nickel stocks are down 2,352t from last week. East Asia briquettes warrants in-whs 10-15 10-15 See Southeast Asia briquettes warrants. South East Asia Full plates warrants in-whs 110-170 110-170 Premium stable, market participants continue to see full-plate warrant premiums above $110. Brand distinctions continue to keep range wide, while ongoing outflows of nickel material are having little effect against a widening LME C/3M spread contango of $97/t, from $86.50/t last week. East Asia Full plates warrants in-whs 110-170 110-170 See Southeast Asia full-plate warrants. Rotterdam Full plates in-whs 210-250 210-250 Offers heard at top end of range but no business concluded at this level. Rotterdam 4x4 cathodes in-whs 365-425 365-425 Rotterdam briquettes in-whs 260-280 260-280 North Europe Full plates warrants in-whs 190-230 190-230 Midwest United States 4x4 cathodes DDP 35-45 cents/lb 35-45 cents/lb Midwest United States briquettes DDP 28-35 cents/lb 28-35 cents/lb Premium steady amid quiet trading conditions, with a number of traders noting that market has hit seasonal quieter period. Cutting costs assessed higher to $130-150/t. Premium unchanged after last week's decline. One deal reported at lower end of range, but majority of participants see steady range. LME live Rotterdam nickel stocks down to 43,278t from 43,326t. LME 3M price steady around $14,100/t. Widening contango in LME spreads continues to be in place, with strong demand from stainless steel and EV sectors supporting prices. Nickel's C/3M spread is in $97/t contango. Live LME nickel stocks in Europe fell a 406t this week. Premium unchanged, demand for material remains steady. Overall demand has been better than expected amid typically slow summer period, according to market participants. Premium steady despite limited spot inquiries. Overall demand remains at healthy levels, little expectation of weakness ahead. IT IS A VIOLATION OF METAL BULLETIN COPYRIGHT TO PHOTOCOPY/DISTRIBUTE THIS PRODUCT PAGE 4
TIN Shanghai 99.85% cif 150-170 150-170 Premium flat on abundant domestic supply. SHFE tin stocks down 130t - or 1.6% - from last week to 7,587t on July 6. Shanghai 99.9% cif 230-250 230-250 See tin 99.85% Shanghai cif. Shanghai 99.9% cif 320-350 320-350 See tin 99.85% Shanghai cif. Taiwan 99.9% cif 220-240 220-240 Premium flat amid unchanged fundamentals. Singapore 99.9% in-whs -25-25 -25-25 Singapore 99.9% low lead in-whs 250-300 250-300 South East Asia min 99.85% warrants in-whs 20-35 20-35 Rotterdam 99.85% in-whs 275-300 275-300 Rotterdam 99.9% in-whs 300-340 320-350 Rotterdam 99.9% low lead in-whs 520-550 520-550 Baltimore 99.85% in-whs 500-600 500-600 Range remains on either side of flat LME prices. Some report discounts available due to ample supply from Indonesia passing through Singapore, but some sellers now asking for premium due to drop in LME price. Trades for exports on ICDX reach 1,550t up to July 10 from 5,255t in June and a record high of 12,330t in May. Market believes that stricter child labor laws in Indonesia might affect some tin smelters and potentially reduce production in coming months. There was also word that tin concentrate price has increased in Indonesia, making producing ingots unprofitable for smaller smelters. Stable premium, cheaper offers still reported from new brand out of Hong Kong remelter Dragon Silver Holding Ltd. Availability of tin with sub-100ppm lead content remains tight in Asia. Most business is on long-term contracts. Malaysian MSC material still dominant in LME stocks, but recent deliveries in Rotterdam said to be Bolivian ENAF brand. LME tin stocks at highest level since April 2017, keeping premium low. ENAF material offered at much higher premium north of $240/t but accounting for small tonnage only. LME C/3M spread has eased to a $25/t backwardation from $76/t last week, although market expects tightening of spreads again. Recent surge in Indonesian exports continues to weigh on sentiment, while LME 3M tin price remains below $20,000/t. Total live tin stocks climb 155t this week. Market remains quiet, quoted at discount to 99.9% market. MSC not sold heavily into Europe anymore, upgrading units to include some 99.9% material. Further LME stock deliveries in Europe, but most said to be Bolivian ENAF material. Premium retreats again on aggressively low offers below $300/t reported for Indonesian 99.9% material. Low-high range widens to $280-350/t this week, but most see spot market above $300/t for now. European market well supplied with Indonesian, Bolivian and Chinese marerial. Consumers well covered, reluctant to build stocks at start of traditionally slow summer period, but lower prices have prompted a bit of bargain hunting. High freight costs, tight shipping space also capping downside in premium. ICDX trades, which are indicative of upcoming exports, have reached 1,550t in July compared with 5,255t in June and record high 12,330t in May. Tin with 50ppm lead or less quoted at top end of range, while 70-80ppm lead material fetching lower end. More exports from Indonesia and Malaysia, and aggressive offers from Hong Kong remelter Dragon Silver pressure market. ENAF brand said to be available in LME stocks this month. End-users largely covered by long-term contracts. Premium remains flat, no changes to demand and supply fundamentals. Activity has slowed as a result of last week's Independence Day holiday. Market participants anticipate demand will slow in coming weeks as plants shut down for maintenance. Midwest United States 99.85% ASTM dlvd 550-625 550-625 Premium flat as consistently strong demand meets adequate supply. IT IS A VIOLATION OF METAL BULLETIN COPYRIGHT TO PHOTOCOPY/DISTRIBUTE THIS PRODUCT PAGE 5
ZINC India SHG cif DP 210-230 210-230 India SHG cif DUP 90-100 90-100 No deals reported this week. Producers offering high into the country, but domestic market well supplied with ingots. Spot interest limited despite exchange price nosedive. LME 3M zinc price has dropped 18% in a month, to $2,625/t on Tuesday. Vedanta, India's largest zinc miner, is delisting from London Stock Exchange and going private. Shanghai SHG in-whs 115 115 See Shanghai premium in-warehouse, low-high. Shanghai SHG cif 100-120 100-120 Taiwan SHG cif 140-150 140-150 Shanghai SHG in-whs 110-120 110-120 See Shanghai premium cif. Singapore SHG in-whs 82 82 Singapore SHG fca 120-135 120-140 Malaysia SHG in-whs 75-90 75-90 Market quiet due to LME spread backwardation. C/3M backwardation narrowed to $11/t on July 10 from $56/t on July 3. Several sources confirmed offers heard at $90/t in bonded zone, but no buying interest due to backwardation. Arbitrage window back to negative territory at minus-$13.52/t on July 9 after marginal gains last week. Metal Bulletin assessed Shanghai-bonded stocks at 156,000-161,000t on July 2. SHFE zinc stocks dropped 6,374t to 74,935t as of July 6. Quiet market, no spot deals reported, buyers well covered by long-term contracts. Malaysia SHG fca 120-135 120-140 See Zinc SHG ingots Singapore fca. South East Asia SHG cif 145-155 145-155 Singapore SHG in-whs 75-90 75-90 See zinc Malaysia in-warehouse. Rotterdam SHG fca DP 115-125 115-125 Premium softens at top end of range as spread backwardation weighs. Offers continue above $130/t, but most deals for significant tonnage below this level. Zinc totaling 3,025t delivered into previously empty LME sheds in Singapore. Limited spot buying interest. Bearish views on zinc price keep buyers on sidelines, along with reluctance to build stocks at start of summer holiday season. Just 75t of zinc available on warrant in LME warehouses in Malaysia, stocked in Port Klang, none in Johor. Backwardation in LME C/3M spread narrows to $11/t on Tuesday from $54.50/t a week ago. Premium unchanged as consumers remain on sidelines with prices in freefall. One sale heard above range but for small tonnage, with larger volumes reported at lower levels in recent weeks. Premium could get a boost as backwardation in LME spreads narrows. Antwerp SHG fca DP 115-125 115-125 See Zinc SHG, DP fca, Rotterdam, $ per tonne. Italy SHG fca DP 150-160 150-160 Premium flat at low levels as consumers remain on sidelines. Italy SHG DDP 185-200 185-200 Premium unchanged, limited spot deals settled on a delivered basis. North Europe SHG warrants in-whs 40-70 40-70 Premium stable after prominent backwardations in LME spreads prompted sellers to offload stock at lower prices. One deal heard as low as $25-30/t, but bulk of business remains above $40/t and as high as $70/t. Before last week, premium had been unchanged since May 1. Consistent uptrend in stocks and tight spreads weigh on zinc s 3M price, pushing it below 2,700/t. Live LME zinc stocks down 2,350t this week. United States SHG warrants in-whs 5-10 5-10 Live New Orleans zinc stocks stand at 159,425t; total stocks at 183,150t. Midwest United States SHG DDP 8.5-9.25 cents/lb 8.5-9.25 cents/lb Premium stable with market entering typically slow summer period. High freight costs keep market supported. Participants reporting strong seasonal demand, which is expected to last through July. Premiums are paid on top of London Metal Exchange cash prices to acquire ownership or secure delivery of physical metal at an agreed location and date. Rates vary according to brand, specification, purity, tonnage, payment terms and warehouse operator. (Table compiled by Metal Bulletin and AMM Newsdesks) If you wish to export any Metal Bulletin prices to distribute to other people or input them into a company system you will require a data licence. Click here to find out more. Please do not forward this email. View our terms and conditions for more information. IT IS A VIOLATION OF METAL BULLETIN COPYRIGHT TO PHOTOCOPY/DISTRIBUTE THIS PRODUCT PAGE 6