Q2 The Deloitte CFO Survey Defensive and watchful The second quarter survey of Chief Financial Officers reveals growing concerns about Brexit on the part of CFOs and a marked shift towards more defensive balance sheet strategies. Uncertainty about the timing and the nature of the Brexit settlement has added to CFO worries about the final destination of the process. Three-quarters of CFOs expect Brexit to lead to a deterioration in the business environment in the long term, the highest proportion since we asked this question in the immediate aftermath of the referendum in late June. The boost to CFO spirits that we saw in the last survey, carried out in March following the announcement of the Brexit transition deal, has been short-lived. CFOs once again rank Brexit as the top risk facing their business, with concerns about weak UK demand in second place. In a sign of a more challenging international backdrop CFO concerns around protectionism and a slowdown in the euro area increased in the second quarter. CFOs are reacting to a weaker domestic outlook with a sharper focus on cost control and building up cash. UK corporates are placing as much emphasis on running defensive balance sheet strategies as they did at the height of the euro crisis in 2012 and immediately after the EU referendum. Increasing cash flow is CFOs top balance sheet priority with cost reduction in second place. Wage inflation has been relatively muted in recent years. But with the unemployment rate at a 43-year low, and inflows to the UK labour force from overseas slowing, skills shortages are building up. 44% of CFOs report that recruitment difficulties or skills shortages have risen in the last three months, up from 31% in the first quarter. Any sustained rise in wages would clearly add to the challenges facing corporates as they seek to rein in costs. Business sentiment continues to be buffeted by the news on Brexit. The mid-year position of the UK corporate sector is defensive and watchful. How that changes over the rest of will be heavily dependent on the unfolding negotiations between the UK and the EU in the next six months. Chart 1. CFO priorities: Defensive strategies 38% 36% 34% 32% 3 28% 26% 24% 22% Authors Ian Stewart Chief Economist 020 7007 9386 istewart@deloitte.co.uk Debapratim De Senior Economist 020 7303 0888 dde@deloitte.co.uk Alex Cole Economist 020 7007 2947 alecole@deloitte.co.uk Rebecca Porter Economic Analyst 020 7007 5728 reporter@deloitte.co.uk Tom Simmons Economic Analyst 020 7303 7370 tsimmons@deloitte.co.uk Key contacts Ian Stewart Chief Economist 020 7007 9386 istewart@deloitte.co.uk Richard Muschamp CFO Programme Leader 020 7007 0724 rmuschamp@deloitte.co.uk For current and past copies of the survey, historical data and coverage of the survey in the media and elsewhere, please visit: www.deloitte.co.uk/cfosurvey The % of CFOs who rated defensive strategies as a strong priority for their business in the next 12 months. Defensive strategies are reducing costs, reducing leverage and increasing cash flow. Q1 Q3 1
The Deloitte CFO Survey Q2 Brexit pessimism rises CFO pessimism over the long-term impact of Brexit is at its highest level since we started asking the question in the summer of. Three-quarters of CFOs expect Brexit to lead to a worsening in the overall environment for business in the long term. Chart 2. Long-term impact of Brexit % of CFOs who think the overall environment for business in the long term will be better/worse if the UK leaves the EU (excluding those who expect no material change) 8 7 5 3 1 68% 11% 65% 66% 19% 8% 72% Q2 Q3 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 9% 73% 15% 68% 9% 75% Better Worse CFOs expect to reduce their own spending as a result of Brexit. intend to scale back their hiring plans and those who plan on reducing capital expenditure over the next three years has risen to a third from 25% last quarter. Chart 3. Effect of Brexit on own spending and hiring decisions % of CFOs who expect M&A activity, capital expenditure and hiring by their business to decrease over the next three years as a consequence of Brexit 8 7 5 3 1 17% 17% Mergers & acquisitions 58% 33% 25% 34% Capital expenditure 66% 38% Hiring 3 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q4 Q2 Q2 Despite concerns over the effects of Brexit, CFO optimism edged higher in the second quarter. Chart 4. Business optimism Net % of CFOs who are more optimistic about the financial prospects of their company than three months ago More optimistic 7 5 3 1-1 -3-5 -7-9 2007 Q3 2008 Q1 2008 Q3 2009 Q1 2009 Q3 2010 Q1 Q1 Q3 Less optimistic 2
The Deloitte CFO Survey Q2 Rise in recruitment difficulties CFO risk appetite remains well below its long-term average. Chart 5. Corporate risk appetite % of CFOs who think this is a good time to take greater risk onto their balance sheets 8 7 5 3 1 2007 Q3 2008 Q1 2008 Q3 2009 Q1 2009 Q3 2010 Q1 Q1 Q3 Revenue expectations among CFOs have dipped in the second quarter. A net 17% of CFOs expect revenues to rise over the next 12 months, down from 31% in the first quarter. Chart 6. Outlook for corporate revenues Net % of CFOs who expect UK corporates revenues to increase over the next 12 months 10 8 - - - Q1 Q3 Almost half of CFOs 44% report that their businesses have experienced a rise in recruitment difficulties or skills shortages over the last three months. Rising skills shortages are likely to exert upward pressure on wages this year. Chart 7. Recruitment difficulties % of CFOs reporting how recruitment difficulties or skills shortages experienced by their businesses have changed over the past three months 8 7 5 3 1 31% Increased 44% 69% 55% No change 1% Decreased Q2 3
The Deloitte CFO Survey Q2 Brexit tops the risk list again CFOs rank Brexit as their top risk, followed by concerns over weak demand and the prospect of tighter monetary policy in the UK and US. CFOs have become considerably more concerned about the risks posed by greater protectionism in the US and economic weakness in the euro area in the second quarter. Concerns over poor productivity in the UK have receded. Chart 8. Risk to business posed by the following factors Weighted average ratings on a scale of 0-100 where 0 stands for no risk and 100 stands for the highest possible risk Effects of Brexit 56 60 Weak demand in the UK 57 57 The prospect of further rate rises and a general tightening of monetary conditions in the UK and US 51 52 The risk of greater protectionism in the US leading to further trade wars 47 51 A bubble in housing and/or other real and financial assets and the risk of higher inflation 46 46 Deflation and economic weakness in the euro area, and the possibility of a renewed euro crisis 37 45 Poor productivity/weak competitiveness in the UK economy 45 48 Weakness and or volatility in emerging markets and rising geopolitical risks worldwide 43 44 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 Q2 4
The Deloitte CFO Survey Q2 Focus on defensive strategies CFOs are placing greater emphasis on defensive strategies such as increasing cash flow, which is their top priority, and reducing costs, which is their second highest priority. Despite their more defensive stance, CFOs rate introducing new products/services or expanding into new markets, which is an expansionary strategy, as their third highest priority. Chart 9. Corporate priorities in the next 12 months % of CFOs who rated each of the following as a strong priority for their business in the next 12 months Increasing cash flow Reducing costs Introducing new products/services or expanding into new markets Expanding by acquisition Raising dividends or share buybacks 12% 18% 22% 37% 37% 42% 49% 47% Reducing leverage Disposing of assets 4% 11% 1 Increasing capital expenditure 12% 1 3 5 Q2 There is a clear distinction between the priorities of UKfacing firms those that report more than 7 of their revenues from the UK and companies that receive the majority of their revenues from overseas. Internationally focused firms are markedly less defensive than their domestic counterparts, who have a particular emphasis on cost reduction and increasing cash flow. Chart 10. Index of corporate expansion: International & UK-facing corporates Expansionary Defensive 15% 1 5% -5% -1-15% - -25% Q1 Q3 International UK-facing International corporates are those that derive more than 7 of their revenues abroad while UK-facing corporates derive more than 7 of their revenues from the UK. Difference between the arithmetic averages of the % of CFOs who rated expansionary and defensive strategies as a strong priority for their business in the next 12 months. Expansionary strategies are introducing new products/services or expanding into new markets, expanding by acquisition and increasing capital expenditure. Defensive strategies are reducing costs, reducing leverage and increasing cash flow. 5
The Deloitte CFO Survey Q2 Inflation expectations fall back Financing conditions remain favourable for the large corporates on our panel. Credit is still easily available and although CFOs have reported a slight increase in its cost over recent quarters, it is still seen as cheap by historical standards. Chart 11. Cost and availability of credit Net % of CFOs reporting credit is costly and credit is easily available Credit is costly Credit is cheap 10 8 - - - -8-10 Availability of credit (RHS) Cost of credit (LHS) 10 8 - - - -8-10 Credit is available Credit is hard to get 2007 Q3 2008 Q1 2008 Q3 2009 Q1 2009 Q3 2010 Q1 Q1 Q3 Inflation fell to 2.4% in May, suggesting the post-brexit surge in prices may be behind us. Chart 12. Inflation expectations % of CFOs who expect UK inflation to be at the following levels in two years time 7 Subsequently, inflation expectations among CFOs have fallen. Only 39% of CFOs now expect inflation to be above 2.5% in two years time, down from 51% in the first quarter. 5 3 46% 57% 51% 39% 1 Below zero 3% 4% 0-1.5% 1.6%-2.5% Above 2.5% Q2 Interest rate expectations have fallen back from the previous quarter. Chart 13. Interest rate expectations % of CFOs who expect the Bank of England s base rate to be at the following levels in a year s time 38% of CFOs now expect the Bank of England s base rate to be 1% or higher in a year s time, down from 47% in the previous quarter. 5 3 49% 48% 41% 36% 1 0.25% or lower 4% 0.5 0.75% 1% 6% 2% 1.25% or above Q2 6
The Deloitte CFO Survey Q2 CFO Survey: Economic and financial context The macroeconomic backdrop to the Deloitte CFO Survey Q2 Growth forecasts for edged lower following a weaker than expected start to the year, driven in particular by slower activity in the euro area and the UK. In the UK, Brexit uncertainties and persistently high inflation led to an unexpectedly sharp slowdown in the first quarter. There are signs that inflationary pressures may have peaked and UK consumers were offered some respite with real wages rising in February after 12 months of falling living standards. US activity continued to strengthen and inflationary pressures rose following further fiscal stimulus. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25bps and set out a course for two further increases this year. Two anti-establishment Italian parties, Five Star Movement and the far-right Northern League, agreed to form a coalition government. The event sparked unease in financial markets and led to a sharp surge in government bond yields. Markets were also unnerved by rising global trade tensions after the US imposed tariffs on steel and aluminium imports from the EU, China, Canada and Mexico, sparking retaliatory measures. The price of oil climbed above $80 a barrel for the first time in almost four years over geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and continued OPEC production quotas. UK GDP growth: Actual and forecast (%) FTSE 100 price index 5 3 1-1 -3 Quarter-on-quarter growth Forecasts 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000-5 -7 2008 2009 2010 Year-on-year growth 4,000 3,000 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: ONS, Consensus Economics and Deloitte calculations Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream UK consumer spending and manufacturing production growth (%) UK annual CPI inflation (%) 10 5 0-5 -10-15 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0-1 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2008 2011 2010 2012 2014 2012 2013 2014 2015 2019 4 3 2 1 0-1 -2-3 -4-5 -6 Consumer spending (LHS) Manufacturing production (RHS) Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream 7
Two-chart summary of key survey messages Long-term impact of Brexit % of CFOs who think the overall environment for business in the long term will be better/worse if the UK leaves the EU (excluding those who expect no material change) 8 7 5 3 1 68% Q2 Better 11% 65% Q3 Q4 Worse 66% 19% Q1 8% 72% Q2 Q3 9% 73% Q4 15% 68% Q1 9% 75% Q2 Outlook for corporate revenues Net % of CFOs who expect UK corporates revenues to increase over the next 12 months 10 8 - - - Q1 Q3 About the survey This is the 44 th quarterly survey of Chief Financial Officers and Group Finance Directors of major companies in the UK. The second quarter survey took place between 3rd and 14th June. 103 CFOs participated, including the CFOs of 20 FTSE 100 and 45 FTSE 250 companies. The rest were CFOs of other UK-listed companies, large private companies and UK subsidiaries of major companies listed overseas. The combined market value of the 76 UK-listed companies surveyed is 504 billion, or approximately 19% of the UK quoted equity market. The Deloitte CFO Survey is the only survey of major corporate users of capital that gauges attitudes to valuations, risk and financing. To join our panel of CFO respondents and for additional copies of this report, please contact Anthea Neagle on 020 7303 0116 or email aneagle@deloitte.co.uk. This publication has been written in general terms and we recommend that you obtain professional advice before acting or refraining from action on any of the contents of this publication. Deloitte LLP accepts no liability for any loss occasioned to any person acting or refraining from action as a result of any material in this publication. Deloitte LLP is a limited liability partnership registered in England and Wales with registered number OC303675 and its registered office at 1 New Street Square, London, EC4A 3HQ, United Kingdom. Deloitte LLP is the United Kingdom affiliate of Deloitte NWE LLP, a member firm of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited, a UK private company limited by guarantee ( DTTL ). DTTL and each of its member firms are legally separate and independent entities. DTTL and Deloitte NWE LLP do not provide services to clients. Please see www.deloitte.com/about to learn more about our global network of member firms. Deloitte LLP. All rights reserved. Designed and produced by The Creative Studio at Deloitte, London. J16108