Mercer Island School District Demographic Trends and Enrollment Projections

Mercer Island School District Demographic Trends and Enrollment Projections Prepared by William L. ( Les ) Kendrick Ph.D. Educational Data Solutions, LLC March 217

District Enrollment Trend P223 Enrollment (October) Does Not Include Full-Time Running Start Students or Students Enrolled in Open Doors 5, 4, 4,25 4145 4,28 4,31 4,18 4,133 4,14 4,131 4,13 4,48 4,4 4,58 4,83 4,177 4,243 4,27 4,3 4,354 4,373 4,49 3, 2, 1, 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 2 Trends and Projections Mar 217

King County Public Schools Enrollment Trend and Mercer Island Market Share 3 25 249319 25399 249971 25791 252241 254,294 255,246 253,766 255,87 256,73 258,788 262,319 266,26 27,546 275,167 278,587 283,161 5.% 4.% 2 3.% 15 1 5 1.73% 1.67% 1.65% 1.65% 1.64% 1.61% 1.59% 1.56% 1.58% 1.63% 1.61% 1.62% 1.6% 1.58% 1.58% 1.57% 1.56% 2.% 1.% 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216.% Enrollment Mercer Island Market Share 3 Trends and Projections Mar 217

Public and Private School Enrollment King County (K-12 Only) Source: P223 and P15 Report --State of Washington Headcount 3 295 29 285 28 275 27 265 26 255 25 245 34,837 35,24 34,49 32,245 33,188 34,275 35,426 3673 36624 3655 35913 36,282 36,452 36,715 37,22 36,375 36,428 Private Schools Enroll Between 11 % and 12% of KC school-age children. 249319 25399 249971 25791252241 254,628255,246 253,766 255,87 256,99258,788 262,319 266,26 27,546 278,587 275,167 283,161 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, 24 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 Private Schools Public Schools 4 Trends and Projections Mar 217

Enrollment for Private Schools Located in Mercer Island s Service Area 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 215 K-5 179 192 219 223 189 196 25 26 293 321 338 363 35 349 368 395 42 45 46 41 419 419 44 373 6-8 93 97 12 125 19 95 112 111 16 16 11 17 19 115 15 1 127 15 143 146 132 141 13 161 9-12 13 8 18 121 171 175 185 22 19 137 123 13 137 115 122 121 95 131 11 125 1 87 125 Total 272 32 419 456 419 462 537 556 61 617 585 593 589 61 588 617 65 695 68 657 676 66 621 669 5 Trends and Projections Mar 217

Enrollment Patterns Mercer Island School District

Mercer Island K Enrollment as a Percent of City Births 3 25 232 254 229 266 247 264 252 246 233 242 2 175 15 15 126 156 143 142 15 128 138 145 1 5 155% 22% 147% 186% 174% 151% 168% 192% 169% 167% 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 Mercer Island Births (5 years prior) Mercer Island K Pct of Cohort 7 Trends and Projections Mar 217

Average Grade Progression Rates (3, 5, and 1 Year Averages) Cohort Ratio Averages for the Mercer Island School District 8 Trends and Projections Mar 217

Demographic Trends

Average Annual Births by County Source: State of Washington Department of Health Birth Files 3, 25, 2, 22,173 24,899 15, 1, 1,16 11,322 8,466 9,352 5, 3,34 2,973 King County Kitsap County Pierce County Snohomish County Avg. Annual Births 1996-25 Avg. Annual Births 26-215 1 Trends and Projections Mar 217

King County Births Source: Washington State Health Department 3 25 2 21,573 21,646 22,212 22,7 22,487 21,778 21,863 22,431 22,874 22,68 Next year s cohort 24,244 24,899 25,19 25,57 24,514 24,63 25,32 24,91 25,343 25,487 15 1 5 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 11 Trends and Projections Mar 217

King County School Districts Change in Enrollment Oct 21 to Oct 216 LAST SIX YEARS Numbers may have changed since the original reporting of the data 7 6 5 638 Net Gain of 24,373 Students in King County: 21-216 4416 5% 4% 3% 2% 4 3 2881 1% % 2 1991 1895 1755 141-1% 1 198 734 689 642 63 23 229 117 12 6 2-2% -3% -4% -98-166 -498-1 -5% Seattle Lake Washington Issaquah Bellevue Northshore Renton Auburn Highline Snoqualmie Valley Tahoma Shoreline Charter Schools Federal Way Mercer Island Vashon Island Riverview Skykomish Tukwila Kent Technical College Enumclaw Change 21 to 216 Percent Change 12 Trends and Projections Mar 217

King County Birth Projections (Based on the Average of 214 and 215 Fertility Rates and Projected Growth in Females in Their Child-Bearing Years Using the OFM Medium Range Population Forecast) 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Actual Birth Cohorts (in yellow) eligible for school between 217-22 Projections Projected cohorts for 221 to 226 Enrollment 2532 2491 25343 25487 25456 25519 25593 25679 2579 25911 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 221 13 Trends and Projections Mar 217

Population Growth and Projections King County Source: Office of Financial Management of the State of Washington 3,, 2,5, OFM Estimates Projections 2,, 1,5, 1,, 5, Census 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 22 225 King County 1,931,249 1,942,6 1,957, 1,981,9 2,17,25 2,52,8 2,15,1 2,18,814 2,196,22 14 Trends and Projections Mar 217

Mercer Island Population Census and State Estimates 3, 5.% 4.5% 25, 4.% 2, 3.5% 3.% 15, 2.5% 2.% 1, 1.5% 5, 1.%.5% Census 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 Population 22,699 22,71 22,69 22,72 23,31 23,48 23,66 % of County Population 1.18% 1.17% 1.16% 1.15% 1.16% 1.14% 1.12%.% 15 Trends and Projections Mar 217

Mercer Island Resident Population Forecasts Alternative Forecasts Based on Different Assumptions About Growth. The PSRC Land Use Forecast is Roughly Based on Current Land Use Trends* The PSRC Land Vision Forecast Assumes Greater Density and More Housing The Medium Range Alternative Lies In-Between the Low and High PSRC Alternatives 27, 26, 25, 24, 23, 22, Census 21 216 State Estimate 22 Forecast 225 Forecast Based off of PSRC Land Use Baseline 22,699 23,66 24,991 25,116 Medium Range Alternative 22,699 23,66 25,165 25,893 Based off PSRC Land Vision Forecast 22,699 23,66 25,339 26,669 *The PSRC Land Use Baseline forecast is similar to the Mercer Island City Comprehensive Plan Assumptions. 16 Trends and Projections Mar 217

Single Family and Condo Home Sales Mercer Island 17 Trends and Projections Mar 217

Housing Units in Mercer Island Total and Occupied K-12 Public School Students Per House 15, 1 1, 8,85 8,435 9,93 9,19 1,48 9,6.51.46.46.5 5, 2 21 Estim. 216 Total Houses Occupied Units Students Per Occupied Unit 18 Trends and Projections Mar 217

Future Housing Forecasts Number of Occupied Units Based off of PRSC Land Use Baseline and Land Vision Forecasts and a Medium Alternative 15, 1, 9,19 9,653 9,916 1,179 1,23 9,693 1,82 5, 21 Census 22 225 PSRC Land Use (Low) Medium Range Forecast PSRC Land-Vision (High) 19 Trends and Projections Mar 217

K-12 Public School Students Per House (King County Districts) Census 21 Census Estimated Estimated P223 Oct Total 21 K-12 Students K-12 Students School District 21 Enroll Housing Units Occupied Units Per 1 Homes Per 1 Occupied Tahoma 7,394 13,835 13,153 53 56 Snoqualmie Valley 6,19 13,693 12,635 44 48 Auburn 14,343 32,762 3,74 44 47 Kent 26,63 6,1 56,621 44 47 Issaquah 16,881 38,765 36,642 44 46 Federal Way 21,724 5,518 47,551 43 46 Mercer Island 4,177 9,93 9,19 42 46 Enumclaw 4,472 1,516 9,877 43 45 Riverview 3,152 7,47 7,19 42 45 Tukwila 2,98 7,353 6,817 4 43 Northshore 19,39 49,81 46,787 39 41 Highline 18,11 5,913 47,16 36 38 Bellevue 18,8 56,376 5,892 32 35 Lake Washington 24,592 76,389 71,711 32 34 Shoreline 8,88 28,28 26,561 31 33 Vashon Island 1,421 5,552 4,66 26 31 Renton 13,558 48,991 45,526 28 3 Seattle 46,794 38,858 283,793 15 16 Skykomish 49 823 33 6 15 *Note: The number of K-12 students per house is estimated using Census housing counts and the October 21 P223 enrollment. 2 Trends and Projections Mar 217

Enrollment Projections

Forecast of the King County K-12 Popula9on Using Cohort Survival, Actual Births, Birth Forecasts and Projected Changes in Popula;on Growth During Certain Time Periods 35, 3, 25, 249,252 258,788 283,161 31,85 312,573 2, 15, 1, 5, 2 (P223) 21 (P223) 216 (P223) 22 225 22 Trends and Projections Mar 217

Forecast Estimates Using a Variety of Methods Cohort Forecasts* 216 217 218 219 22 221 222 223 224 225 226 3 Year Avg. Cohort 4,49 4,452 4,473 4,456 4,471 4,474 4,447 4,439 4,432 4,43 4,399 5 Year Avg. Cohort 4,49 4,475 4,518 4,519 4,557 4,581 4,572 4,586 4,597 4,588 4,598 1 Year Avg. Cohort 4,49 4,494 4,548 4,554 4,599 4,634 4,628 4,647 4,669 4,675 4,696 Linear Models (Based on Total Enrollment Only -- 1 Year History) County Births and MI Pop (Low) 4,49 4,47 4,59 4,565 4,647 4,649 4,657 4,666 4,676 4,688 4,71 County Births and MI Pop (High) 4,49 4,483 4,521 4,578 4,697 4,733 4,776 4,819 4,864 4,91 4,957 Students Per House Forecast (Based on Alternative Pop/Housing Forecasts Student Per House Low Growth 4,49 4,416 4,422 4,428 4,433 4,437 4,441 4,444 4,448 4,452 4,455 Student Per House Medium Growth 4,49 4,447 4,484 4,522 4,559 4,586 4,612 4,638 4,665 4,691 4,718 Student Per House High Growth 4,49 4,477 4,545 4,612 4,68 4,729 4,778 4,828 4,877 4,926 4,975 Average of all Forecasts 4,464 4,53 4,529 4,58 4,63 4,614 4,633 4,653 4,667 4,687 *Kindergarten enrollment in the cohort forecasts is based on the District's average share of the County birth cohort (K enrollment compared to births) for the past three, six, and ten years, multiplied by actual and projected birth cohorts expected to enroll between 217 and 226 23 Trends and Projections Mar 217

Mercer Island District Forecast Alternative Forecasts 217-226 Based on Grade Level Trends and Alternative Projections of Population and Housing 5, 4,8 4,6 4,4 4,2 4, 15 16 17 18 19 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 Low 4,371 4,49 4,429 444 4417 443 4444 4428 4433 4438 4424 4434 Medium (Recommended) 4,371 4,49 4,458 451 458 4551 4592 46 4628 4653 4656 4681 High Range Forecast 4,371 4,49 4,487 4563 461 4674 4744 4778 483 4878 4899 4941 24 Trends and Projections Mar 217

Mercer Island (October Headcount Enrollment) Births 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 Mercer Island Births 14 13 167 136 121 155 132 15 126 156 143 142 175 15 128 138 145 King County Births 21817 21573 21646 22212 227 22487 21778 21863 22,431 22874 2268 24244 24,899 2519 2557 24514 24,63 K Enroll as % of Cnty 1.2% 1.11% 1.5% 1.5%.95% 1.11% 1.14% 1.6% 1.13% 1.% 1.17% 1.2% 1.6% 1.%.98%.95%.98% K Enroll as a % of City 186% 184% 136% 171% 172% 161% 188% 155% 22% 147% 186% 174% 151% 168% 192% 169% 167% City % of County Cohort.64%.6%.77%.61%.55%.69%.61%.69%.56%.68%.63%.59%.7%.6%.51%.56%.59% 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 K 261 239 227 233 28 25 248 232 254 229 266 247 264 252 246 233 242 1 259 276 257 257 26 224 283 276 267 283 28 294 277 298 287 273 256 2 36 277 291 276 259 274 227 294 294 28 34 294 311 297 317 35 298 3 33 39 276 38 282 266 29 255 36 311 35 35 31 336 317 343 324 4 314 33 39 297 33 292 275 311 281 316 339 32 331 337 361 326 356 5 36 318 332 331 31 345 36 279 32 28 328 341 322 339 358 356 348 6 362 356 316 349 341 31 353 298 282 347 282 343 362 338 36 378 363 7 35 364 368 325 359 339 34 369 34 29 346 311 348 37 358 369 398 8 349 352 369 381 34 352 343 38 365 314 35 357 32 35 374 356 363 9 343 347 354 351 392 344 343 334 336 383 32 337 362 332 364 398 368 1 35 335 343 36 355 387 346 337 341 35 393 335 339 364 333 368 412 11 34 334 343 333 364 363 379 342 348 357 358 47 336 342 364 332 361 12 377 343 348 339 34 366 351 369 36 343 351 352 388 329 319 334 32 Tot 4,31 4,18 4,133 4,14 4,131 4,13 4,48 4,4 4,58 4,83 4,177 4,243 4,27 4,284 4,358 4,371 4,49 Grow th 93-121 -47 7-9 -28-55 -44 54 25 94 66 27 14 74 13 38 Percent 2.2% -2.8% -1.1%.2% -.2% -.7% -1.3% -1.1% 1.3%.6% 2.3% 1.6%.6%.3% 1.7%.3%.9% 183 1749 1692 172 164 1651 1629 1647 1722 1699 1822 181 1815 1859 1886 1836 1824 161 172 153 155 14 992 1 975 951 951 933 111 13 158 192 113 1124 141 1359 1388 1383 1451 146 1419 1382 1385 1433 1422 1431 1425 1367 138 1432 1461 King County Public Schools K-12 249,319 25,14 249,971 25,791 252,241 254,294 255,246 253,121 254,398 256,545 259,144 261,939 266,26 27,546 275,167 278,587 283,161 Mercer Island Market Share 1.73% 1.67% 1.65% 1.65% 1.64% 1.61% 1.59% 1.58% 1.6% 1.59% 1.61% 1.62% 1.6% 1.58% 1.58% 1.57% 1.56% 25 Trends and Projections Mar 217

Low Range Forecast (Growth Rates Based off of the Low Range Pop/Housing Forecast) Projected Births 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 221 6 year Trends at Kindergarten City Births 148 156 179 163 153 153 154 154 155 155 Median SD+1 SD-1 Cnty Births 25,32 24,91 25,348 25,487 25,456 25,519 25,593 25,679 25,79 25,911 % County 1.% 1.4%.96% % County.98% 1.1% 1.1% 1.2%.99%.99%.99%.99%.99%.99% % City 17% 183% 157% % City 154% 154% 154% 153% 153% 152% 152% 151% 151% 15% City % of County.62%.69%.56% Rollup Ratio Adjusted for Future Pop/Housing Growth Projections Used 217 218-2 221-26 Priv. Schls 217 218 219 22 221 222 223 224 225 226.97%.975.98.983.999 K 245 252 257 261 253 253 254 255 256 257 1.19.994.996 1..999 1 267 27 278 284 289 28 281 282 282 284 1.77.994.996 1..999 2 274 286 289 298 35 311 31 32 33 34 1.7.994.996 1..999 3 317 292 34 38 319 326 332 322 323 324 1.41.994.996 1..999 4 335 328 32 315 32 331 339 345 335 336 1.4.994.996 1..999 5 368 347 339 313 327 333 344 352 359 348 1.39.994.996 1..999 6 359 38 358 351 324 34 345 357 365 372 1.45.994.996 1..999 7 377 373 395 372 366 338 354 36 372 381.992.994.996 1..999 8 392 372 369 39 369 363 335 351 357 369 1.45.994.996 1..999 9 377 48 387 383 47 385 379 35 367 373 1.22.994.996 1..999 1 374 383 415 393 391 416 393 386 357 374.989.994.996 1..999 11 45 368 377 48 389 387 411 389 382 353.943.994.996 1..999 12 338 38 345 354 385 366 364 387 366 36 Tot 4,429 444 4417 443 4444 4428 4433 4438 4424 4434 Change 2 11-23 14 14-15 5 5-14 1 Percent.4%.3% -.5%.3%.3% -.3%.1%.1% -.3%.2% K-5 186 1775 177 1778 1813 1834 1851 1858 1858 1852 6-8 1129 1126 1122 1113 159 141 135 168 195 1122 9-12 1494 154 1524 1539 1572 1554 1547 1512 1472 146 Projection King County K-12 KC K-12 287,385 291,392 296,628 31,85 34,522 37,537 31,16 311,9 312,573 312,981 Market share 1.54% 1.52% 1.49% 1.47% 1.46% 1.44% 1.43% 1.42% 1.42% 1.42% 26 Trends and Projections Mar 217

Medium Range Forecast (Growth Rates Based off of the Medium Range Pop/Housing Forecast) Projected Births 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 221 6 year Trends at Kindergarten City Births 148 156 179 163 153 153 154 154 155 155 Median SD+1 SD-1 Cnty Births 25,32 24,91 25,348 25,487 25,456 25,519 25,593 25,679 25,79 25,911 % County 1.% 1.4%.96% % County.99% 1.3% 1.3% 1.4% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% % City 17% 183% 157% % City 154% 154% 154% 153% 153% 152% 152% 151% 151% 15% City % of County.62%.69%.56% Rollup Ratio Adjusted for Future Pop/Housing Growth Projections Used 217 218-2 221-26 Priv. Schls 217 218 219 22 221 222 223 224 225 226.97%.99.995.998 1. K 248 256 261 265 257 257 258 259 26 261 1.19 1. 1.2 1.6 1. 1 268 276 284 29 295 286 287 288 289 29 1.77 1. 1.2 1.6 1. 2 276 29 298 37 314 32 31 311 312 313 1.7 1. 1.2 1.6 1. 3 319 296 311 319 33 338 344 334 335 336 1.41 1. 1.2 1.6 1. 4 337 332 38 324 334 346 354 361 35 35 1.4 1. 1.2 1.6 1. 5 37 351 346 321 339 35 362 37 377 366 1.39 1. 1.2 1.6 1. 6 361 385 366 36 336 354 366 378 387 394 1.45 1. 1.2 1.6 1. 7 379 378 43 383 379 353 372 384 397 47.992 1. 1.2 1.6 1. 8 395 377 376 41 382 378 352 371 383 396 1.45 1. 1.2 1.6 1. 9 379 413 395 394 421 41 397 37 39 43 1.22 1. 1.2 1.6 1. 1 376 388 423 44 45 433 413 48 38 41.989 1. 1.2 1.6 1. 11 48 373 385 42 42 43 431 411 46 378.943 1. 1.2 1.6 1. 12 341 385 352 364 398 382 382 49 39 386 Tot 4,458 451 458 4551 4592 46 4628 4653 4656 4681 Change 49 43 7 43 41 9 27 26 2 25 Percent 1.1% 1.%.2%.9%.9%.2%.6%.6%.1%.5% K-5 1819 181 188 1826 1869 1897 1915 1922 1922 1916 6-8 1135 114 1145 1144 196 185 189 1133 1167 1197 9-12 153 156 1555 1581 1626 1619 1623 1598 1566 1568 Projection King County K-12 KC K-12 287,385 291,392 296,628 31,85 34,522 37,537 31,16 311,9 312,573 312,981 Market share 1.55% 1.54% 1.52% 1.51% 1.51% 1.5% 1.49% 1.49% 1.49% 1.5% 27 Trends and Projections Mar 217

High Range Forecast (Growth Rates Based off of the High Range Pop/Housing Forecast) Projected Births 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 221 6 year Trends at Kindergarten City Births 148 156 179 163 153 153 154 154 155 155 Median SD+1 SD-1 Cnty Births 25,32 24,91 25,348 25,487 25,456 25,519 25,593 25,679 25,79 25,911 % County 1.% 1.4%.96% % County 1.1% 1.4% 1.4% 1.5% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% % City 17% 183% 157% % City 154% 154% 154% 153% 153% 152% 152% 151% 151% 15% City % of County.62%.69%.56% Rollup Ratio Adjusted for Future Pop/Housing Growth Projections Used 217 218-2 221-26 Priv. Schls 217 218 219 22 221 222 223 224 225 226.97% 1.5 1.1 1.13 1.1 K 252 26 265 269 26 261 262 263 264 265 1.19 1.6 1.8 1.12 1.1 1 27 282 291 296 32 293 293 294 295 296 1.77 1.6 1.8 1.12 1.1 2 277 294 37 316 323 329 319 32 321 322 1.7 1.6 1.8 1.12 1.1 3 321 299 317 331 342 35 357 346 347 348 1.41 1.6 1.8 1.12 1.1 4 339 337 315 333 349 361 37 376 365 366 1.4 1.6 1.8 1.12 1.1 5 372 356 353 33 35 368 38 389 396 384 1.39 1.6 1.8 1.12 1.1 6 364 39 373 37 347 369 387 4 49 417 1.45 1.6 1.8 1.12 1.1 7 381 383 411 393 392 367 39 49 423 433.992 1.6 1.8 1.12 1.1 8 397 382 384 412 395 394 369 392 411 425 1.45 1.6 1.8 1.12 1.1 9 382 419 43 44 436 418 417 391 415 435 1.22 1.6 1.8 1.12 1.1 1 378 393 432 415 419 451 433 431 44 43.989 1.6 1.8 1.12 1.1 11 41 378 393 431 416 42 452 434 432 45.943 1.6 1.8 1.12 1.1 12 343 39 359 374 412 397 41 432 415 413 Tot 4,487 4563 461 4674 4744 4778 483 4878 4899 4941 Change 78 76 38 73 7 35 52 48 21 42 Percent 1.8% 1.7%.8% 1.6% 1.5%.7% 1.1% 1.%.4%.9% K-5 1832 1827 1847 1874 1927 1962 1981 1988 1988 1982 6-8 1142 1155 1168 1175 1134 113 1146 121 1244 1276 9-12 1513 158 1586 1624 1682 1686 173 1688 1666 1684 Projection King County K-12 KC K-12 287,385 291,392 296,628 31,85 34,522 37,537 31,16 311,9 312,573 312,981 Market share 1.56% 1.57% 1.55% 1.55% 1.56% 1.55% 1.56% 1.56% 1.57% 1.58% 28 Trends and Projections Mar 217

Consultant Background and Experience Dr. Kendrick was the demographer for the Seattle Public schools from 199 to 1997. In that capacity he provided enrollment projections to facilitate staffing and facilities planning and helped with the management of the student assignment system He also provided analysis of the relationship between demographics and test scores. Since 1997 he has worked as a consultant providing demographic analysis and enrollment projections for local school districts. Over the past 2 years his clients have included the following Districts: Auburn, Bainbridge Island, Bellingham, Bellevue, Bethel, Bremerton, Central Kitsap, Edmonds, Enumclaw, Federal Way, Marysville, Mercer Island, Monroe, North Kitsap, Olympia, Renton, Seattle, South Kitsap, Shoreline, Snoqualmie Valley, Sumner, and Tukwila. He also does annual enrollment projection work for the Everett, Highline, Mukilteo, Northshore, Puyallup, and Tacoma School Districts. He has worked in all four counties of the Puget Sound and is familiar with the different trends and patterns across the region.