Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 August 16, 2011 COMPANY RESULTS REPORT REVIEW Jyothy Laboratories Ltd. Transition phase leading to uncertain environment HOLD Nifty: 5,073; Sensex: 16,840 CMP Target Price Rs200 Rs204 Potential Upside/Downside +3% Sector Relative to Sensex Source: Capitaline Analyst Bhaumik Bhatia +91-22-4322 1189 bhaumik.bhatia@idbicapital.com Key Stock Data Bloomberg / Reuters FMCG JYOI IN / JYL.BO Shares o/s (mn) 81 Market cap. 16,086 Market cap. (US$ mn) 355 3-m daily average vol. 25,461 Price Performance 52-week high/low Rs322/175-1m -3m -12m Absolute (%) (9) (7) (28) Rel to Sensex (%) (0) (1) (21) Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters 63.8 FIIs/NRIs/OCBs/GDR 15.6 MFs/Banks/FIs 13.4 Non Promoter Corporate 3.4 Public & Others 3.8 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 JYOI Sensex Summary Revenue and EBITDA during Q1FY12 came below estimates on lower sales across brands, higher input cost pressures and Maxo losses. While, PAT was ahead of estimates on lower interest cost and higher other income. Management indicated that sales pressure is likely to continue for next few months, till the time distribution realignment and system inventory correction (shift away from CSA/superstockists) is completed. Maxo sales was also impacted by stiffer competition, which led to rise in industry wide sales promotion, while JYL refrained from such activities. The company has completed acquisition of ~72% stake in HIL (included ~6% acquired till date under open offer), while the mandatory open offer for 20% stake is going on. While we remain optimistic on long term prospects of this acquisition, near term outlook is hazy in the light of uncertainties surrounding HIL s turnaround and integration. We are upgrading JYL s standalone earnings estimates for FY12/13 by 6%/10% to Rs6.2/6.7 to factor in lower interest outgo and higher other income (interest income from loan given to Henkel India) during Q1FY12. However, we note here that we don t have enough clarity on how interest cost and other income is likely to pan out going forward. We upgrade to HOLD from REDUCE led by earnings upgrade, with SOTP valuation at Rs204 (Rs190 earlier). We value JYL s core business at Rs137 (assigning equal weightage to DCF valuation of Rs167 (11.8% WACC; 4% terminal growth) and P/E based valuation of Rs106 (16x FY13E EPS). We value 86% stake in HIL (including 20% open offer) at Rs53 (14x CY13E EPS of Rs4.4) and NPV of tax benefits on HIL s accumulated losses of >Rs5 bn at Rs15. We note that further equity dilution is likely at JYL (it has taken board approval to raise funds to the tune of Rs5 bn), as the company tries to improve its capital structure (reduce debt levels), which could bring down estimated EPS further. Faster than expected turnaround in HIL/JYL operations are downside risks to our estimates. Result highlights Revenue below estimates on lower Soaps & Detergents and Maxo sales Revenue fell 19% YoY to Rs1.2 bn, below IDBIe of Rs1.4 bn, led by lower than expected revenue from Soaps & Detergents segment at Rs914 mn (down 1%; our estimate of Rs1.1 bn) as JYL focuses to reduce system inventories and realign distribution networks of JYL and HIL HIL pays 5% distribution margin and operates through non-csa C&F, while JYL pays ~8% margin and operates through CSA, depots and C&F. JYL aims to bring down combined distribution margin to ~6% levels by realigning distribution networks of two companies. The company expects this realignment to be over by FY12 end, till when it expects revenue to remain impacted. Home care segment revenue was largely in line at Rs314 mn, down 37%, led by change in distribution strategy, 7.5% reduction in trade margin on Maxo during H1FY11 and increased competitive intensity with higher sales promotion, while JYL continued with reduced trade margin, which impacted volume. Resultantly, JYL s revenue mix shifted towards Soaps & Detergents at 74% vs. 68% in Q1FY11 and Home Care at 26% vs. 32%. Table: Financial snapshot Year Revenue EBITDA EBITDA (%) Adj. PAT EPS (Rs) P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%) FY10 5,760 952 16.5 800 11.0 18.1 13.9 21.3 21.8 FY11 6,080 872 14.3 803 10.0 20.0 15.2 15.3 13.4 FY12E 5,464 653 11.9 501 6.2 32.1 31.7 7.7 5.0 FY13E 6,293 814 12.9 536 6.7 30.0 25.1 7.9 5.3
Profitability hit more than expected by input cost pressures, Maxo losses Soaps & Detergents EBIT margin fell 780bps YoY to 19%, despite price hike of ~17% taken on Ujala Supreme in July 2010. QoQ variation in this segment s profitability (30% in Q4FY11) is inexplicable and limits our ability to analyse and forecast the trend effectively. Home Care continued to bleed, with EBIT margin down 2750bps YoY (despite lower offers and trade margins and contrary to management guidance of improving this segment margin) to (13.3%), led by input cost pressures, higher ad spends (money spent on liquids) and increase in excise and VAT rates across states. This resulted in EBITDA falling 67% to Rs109 mn, with EBITDA margin at 8.8%, down 1330bps (IDBIe 11.1%), deviation primarily led by revenue miss. Management indicated that it has taken price hike across Ujala, Exo and Maxo by 7-8% each in July 2011, which should improve profitability going ahead. PAT was ahead of IDBIe of Rs108 mn, down 46% to Rs140 mn, led by lower than expected interest cost at Rs18 mn (IDBIe Rs41 mn) and higher other income at Rs121 mn (Rs50 mn higher on interest income on loan given to HIL). Raise FY12/13 estimates by 6%/10%; upgrade to HOLD We are upgrading JYL s standalone earnings estimates for FY12/13 by 6%/10% to Rs6.2/6.7 to factor in lower interest outgo and higher other income (interest income from loan given to Henkel India) during Q1FY12. However, we note here that we don t have enough clarity on how interest cost and other income is likely to pan out going forward. We upgrade to HOLD from REDUCE led by earnings upgrade, with SOTP valuation at Rs204 (Rs190 earlier). We value JYL s core business at Rs137 (assigning equal weightage to DCF valuation of Rs167 (11.8% WACC; 4% terminal growth) and P/E based valuation of Rs106 (16x FY13E EPS). We value 86% stake in HIL at Rs53 (14x CY13E EPS of Rs4.4) and NPV of tax benefits on HIL s accumulated losses of >Rs5 bn at Rs15. We note that further equity dilution is likely at JYL (it has taken board approval to raise funds to the tune of Rs5 bn), as the company tries to improve its capital structure (reduce debt levels), which could bring down estimated EPS further. Faster than expected turnaround in HIL/JYL operations are downside risks to our estimates. Key highlights from the conference call Management indicated that though primary sales (sales from company to superstockists) have been impacted, secondary sales remain healthy (sales from superstockists/distributor to retailer) and the company has been able to maintain market share across brands. The company expects FY12 volume growth of 6-8% in Ujala, despite weak performance in Q1. Bangalore project under JFSL has turned profitable in Q1. It plans to enter Chennai and Hyderabad during FY12. Management expects to monetize unutilized assets in JYL and HIL to generate Rs500-1,000 mn during FY12. It indicated that there is no likelihood of PE investment in JYL (as has been doing round in media reports) in the next 3 months as it focuses on Henkel integration. Henkel India performance has witnessed improved profitability, which management expects to further improve in the coming quarters. It expects ad spends at 8% of revenue in FY12. 2
Table: Quarterly snapshot Q1FY12 Q1FY11 YoY (%) Q4FY11 QoQ (%) Net sales 1,230 1,513 (18.7) 1,553 (20.8) Other operating income 1 20 (93.3) 15 (90.6) Total Operating income 1,231 1,534 (19.7) 1,567 (21.4) Cost of goods sold 635 734 (13.5) 831 (23.5) % of Sales 51.7 48.5 3.1 53.5 (1.9) Gross Margin 595 779 (23.7) 722 (17.6) Gross Margin (%) 48.3 51.5 (3.1) 46.5 1.9 Staff Cost 197 195 0.9 192 2.5 % of Sales 16.0 12.9 3.1 12.4 3.6 Advertising & sales promotion 92 96 (3.8) 116 (20.5) % of Sales 7.5 6.3 1.2 7.5 0.0 Other expenditure 198 173 14.2 261 (24.2) % of Sales 16.1 11.5 4.6 16.8 (0.7) Total Operating Expenses 1,123 1,199 (6.4) 1,400 (19.8) % of Sales 91.3 79.2 12.1 90.2 1.1 EBITDA 109 335 (67.5) 167 (34.9) EBITDA Margin (%) 8.8 22.1 (13.3) 10.8 (1.9) Depreciation 38 29 32.4 20 88.5 EBIT 71 306 (76.9) 147 (51.8) EBIT Margin (%) 5.8 20.2 (14.5) 9.5 (3.7) Interest 18 0 5,019.5 2 742.2 Other income 121 20 518.3 90 34.0 Pre-tax profit 174 325 (46.5) 235 (25.9) Pre-tax Margin (%) 14.2 21.5 (7.3) 15.1 (1.0) Tax 34 68 (50.2) 14 149.2 % of PBT 19.5 21.0 (1.5) 5.8 13.7 PAT 140 257 (45.5) 221 (36.7) NPM 11.4 17.0 (5.6) 14.3 (2.9) Extraordinary items - - - Adjusted PAT 140 257 (45.5) 221 (36.7) Adjusted Net Margin (%) 11.4 17.0 (5.6) 14.3 (2.9) Equity Share Capital 81 73 81 Face Value 1 1 1 No. of shares o/s 81 73 81 Adjusted EPS (Rs) 1.7 3.5 (50.9) 2.7 (36.7) 3
Table: Segment results Q1FY12 Q1FY11 YoY (%) Q4FY11 QoQ (%) Segment revenue Soaps & Detergents 914 1,025 (10.8) 936 (2.3) % of Total Sales 74.3 67.8 6.6 60.3 14.1 Home Care 314 502 (37.4) 621 (49.4) % of Total Sales 25.5 33.2 (7.6) 40.0 (14.5) Others 2 3 (49.2) (4) (142.2) % of Total Sales 0.1 0.2 (0.1) (0.3) 0.4 Less : Inter-segment revenue - 18 (100.0) 0 (100.0) Gross Sales 1,230 1,513 (18.7) 1,553 (20.8) Segment profit Soaps & Detergents 174 275 (36.9) 281 (38.2) PBIT (%) 19.0 26.8 (7.8) 30.0 (11.0) Home Care (42) 71 (158.6) (60) (30.9) PBIT (%) (13.3) 14.2 (27.5) (9.7) (3.6) Others 1 1 (46.1) (3) (119.5) PBIT (%) 31.5 29.6 1.8 68.2 (36.7) PBIT 132 347 (61.9) 218 (39.2) Less: Interest 21 0 4,725.9 3 699.1 Other unallocable exp. (net) (63) 22 (391.0) (27) 132.2 PBT 174 325 (46.5) 242 (28.1) Capital Employed Soaps & Detergents 1,804 1,862 (3.1) 2,847 (36.6) % RoCE 9.6 14.8 (5.2) 9.9 (0.2) Home Care 961 886 8.4 1,008 (4.7) % RoCE (4.3) 8.0 (12.4) (6.0) 1.6 Others 4 4 19.7 4 2.6 % RoCE 12.1 26.9 (14.8) (63.8) 75.9 Other unallocable items 3,799 1,495 154.1 2,668 42.4 Total 6,568 4,246 54.7 6,527 0.6 Table: Category wise net sales Q1FY12 Q1FY11 YoY (%) Fabric Care 677 826 (18.0) Mosquito repellant 183 282 (35.3) Dishwasing 294 292 0.5 Others 77 113 (32.1) Total 1,230 1,513 (18.7) 4
Figure: Trend in financials 2,000 1,600 1,200 800 400 0 Q1FY10 Q2FY10 Q3FY10 Q4FY10 Q1FY11 Q2FY11 Q3FY11 Q4FY11 Q1FY12 Sales EBITDA PAT Table: Brand wise market share (%) Value Volume Q1FY12 Q1FY11 Q1FY12 Q1FY11 Ujala 72.2 71.4 58.4 57.0 Maxo 20.9 24.5 23.1 22.4 Exo 23.5 23.0 20.9 21.3 Table: Distribution Shift away from Superstockists Area Sales - Q1FY12 % of sales Sales - Q1FY11 % of sales YoY (%) CSA/Superstockists 427 34.7 828 54.7 (48.4) Non-CSA 803 65.3 685 45.3 17.2 Total 1,230 1,513 (18.7) Table: Channel margin JYL vs. Henkel India: Focus on reducing level of intermediation (%) Jyothy CSA/Superstockists Distributor Retail Total CSA Area 5 8 10 23 Non-CSA Depot - 8 10 18 Non-CSA C&F 2 8 10 20 Henkel India CSA/Superstockists Distributor Retail Total Non-CSA C&F - 5 10 15 Proposed - post merger CSA/Superstockists Distributor Retail Total Non-CSA Depot - 6 10 16 5
Henkel India Table: Quarterly snapshot (standalone) Year-end: March Q1FY12 Q1FY11 YoY (%) Q4FY11 QoQ (%) H1CY11 H1CY10 YoY (%) Net sales 1,047 1,329 (21.2) 1,013 3.3 2,060 2,365 (12.9) Other operating income - - - - - Total Operating income 1,047 1,329 (21.2) 1,013 3.3 2,060 2,365 (12.9) Cost of goods sold 672 864 (22.2) 663 1.5 1,335 1,515 (11.9) % of Sales 64.2 65.0 (0.8) 65.4 (1.2) 64.8 64.1 0.7 Gross Margin 374 465 (19.5) 351 6.8 725 850 (14.7) Gross Margin (%) 35.8 35.0 0.8 34.6 1.2 35.2 35.9 (0.7) Staff Cost 36 36 (1.6) 42 (15.4) 78 55 41.0 % of Sales 3.4 2.7 0.7 4.2 (0.8) 3.8 2.3 1.4 Other expenditure 210 358 (41.5) 274 (23.6) 484 657 (26.3) % of Sales 20.0 27.0 (6.9) 27.1 (7.1) 23.5 27.8 (4.3) Total Operating Expenses 918 1,259 (27.1) 979 (6.3) 1,897 2,227 (14.8) % of Sales 87.7 94.7 (7.0) 96.7 (9.0) 92.1 94.2 (2.1) EBITDA 129 70 83.5 34 280.5 163 137 18.6 EBITDA Margin (%) 12.3 5.3 7.0 3.3 9.0 7.9 5.8 2.1 Depreciation 14 15 (5.9) 15 (2.0) 29 31 (6.1) EBIT 115 55 108.4 19 496.9 134 106 25.8 EBIT Margin (%) 10.9 4.1 6.8 1.9 9.1 6.5 4.5 2.0 Interest 30 47 (36.5) 38 (21.4) 68 78 (13.6) Other income 31 1 6,040.0 4 614.0 35 1 3,400.0 Pre-tax profit 116 9 1,228.7 (14) (908.4) 101 29 245.7 Pre-tax Margin (%) 11.0 0.7 10.4 (1.4) 12.5 4.9 1.2 3.7 Tax - - - - - % of PBT 0.0 0.0-0.0-0.0 0.0 - Adjusted PAT 116 9 1,228.7 (14) (908.4) 101 29 245.7 NPM (%) 11.0 0.7 10.4 (1.4) 12.5 4.9 1.2 3.7 Extraordinary items 254 - - 254 - Reported PAT 369 9 4,142.5 (14) (2,681.1) 355 29 1,110.9 Reported Net Margin (%) 35.3 0.7 34.6 (1.4) 36.7 33.9 1.2 32.6 Equity Share Capital 1,165 1,165 1,165 1,165 1,165 Face Value 10 10 10 10 10 No. of shares o/s 116 116 116 116 116 Adjusted EPS (Rs) 1.0 0.1 1,228.7 (0.1) (908.4) 0.9 0.3 245.7 6
Table: Quarterly snapshot (consolidated) Year-end: March Q1FY12 Q1FY11 YoY (%) Q4FY11 QoQ (%) H1CY11 H1CY10 YoY (%) Net sales 1,231 1,649 (25.4) 1,192 3.3 2,423 2,842 (14.7) Other operating income - - - - - Total Operating income 1,231 1,649 (25.4) 1,192 3.3 2,423 2,842 (14.7) Cost of goods sold 712 863 (17.6) 664 7.1 1,376 1,527 (9.9) % of Sales 57.8 52.3 5.5 55.7 2.1 66.8 64.6 2.2 Gross Margin 520 786 (33.9) 528 (1.6) 1,047 1,314 (20.3) Gross Margin (%) 42.2 47.7 (5.5) 44.3 (2.1) 43.2 46.3 (3.0) Staff Cost 73 97 (25.6) 101 (27.9) 173 198 (12.6) % of Sales 5.9 5.9 (0.0) 8.4 (2.5) 7.1 7.0 0.2 Other expenditure 400 724 (44.8) 509 (21.4) 908 1,232 (26.3) % of Sales 32.5 43.9 (11.4) 42.7 (10.2) 37.5 43.4 (5.9) Total Operating Expenses 1,184 1,684 (29.7) 1,273 (7.0) 2,457 2,958 (16.9) % of Sales 96.2 102.1 (5.9) 106.8 (10.7) 101.4 104.1 (2.7) EBITDA 47 (35) (235.2) (81) (158.1) (34) (116) (70.7) EBITDA Margin (%) 3.8 (2.1) 5.9 (6.8) 10.7 (1.4) (4.1) 2.7 Depreciation 14 16 (11.7) 15 (2.0) 29 31 (6.1) EBIT 33 (51) (164.1) (96) (134.2) (63) (147) (57.1) EBIT Margin (%) 2.7 (3.1) 5.8 (8.1) 10.7 (2.6) (5.2) 2.6 Interest 96 58 66.4 93 3.4 189 111 70.6 Other income 62 (5) (1,466.7) 6 1,018.2 67 1 6,600.0 Pre-tax profit (2) (113) (98.5) (183) (99.1) (185) (257) (28.0) Pre-tax Margin (%) (0.1) (6.9) 6.7 (15.4) 15.2 (7.6) (9.0) 1.4 Tax - - - - - % of PBT 0.0 0.0-0.0-0.0 0.0 - Adjusted PAT (2) (113) (98.5) (183) (99.1) (185) (257) (28.0) NPM (%) (0.1) (6.9) 6.7 (15.4) 15.2 (7.6) (9.0) 1.4 Extraordinary items 254 - - 254 - Reported PAT 252 (113) (322.0) (183) (237.4) 69 (257) (126.7) Reported Net Margin (%) 20.5 (6.9) 27.3 (15.4) 35.8 2.8 (9.0) 11.9 Equity Share Capital 1,165 1,165 1,165 1,165 1,165 Face Value 10 10 10 10 10 No. of shares o/s 116 116 116 116 116 Adjusted EPS (Rs) 2.2 (1.0) (322.0) (1.6) (237.4) 0.6 (1.0) (160.4) 7
Financial Summary Profit & Loss Account Cash Flow Statement Net sales 5,760 6,080 5,464 6,293 Growth (%) 63.5 5.6 (10.1) 15.2 Operating expenses (4,808) (5,208) (4,812) (5,479) EBITDA 952 872 653 814 Growth (%) 87.2 (8.3) (25.2) 24.7 Depreciation (105) (108) (159) (168) EBIT 847 765 494 646 Interest paid (6) (3) (88) (88) Other income 170 194 221 243 Pre-tax profit 1,011 956 626 801 Tax (210) (153) (125) (264) Effective tax rate (%) 20.8 16.0 20.0 33.0 Net profit 800 803 501 536 Adjusted net profit 800 803 501 536 Growth (%) 99.6 0.3 (37.6) 7.1 Shares o/s (mn nos) 73 81 81 81 Pre-tax profit 1,011 956 626 801 Depreciation 103 108 159 168 Tax paid (184) (76) (125) (264) Chg in working capital (370) (871) 518 (241) Other operating activities - - - - Cash flow from operations (a) 559 116 1,178 463 Capital expenditure (206) (357) (140) (165) Chg in investments (9) - (7,733) - Other investing activities - - - - Cash flow from investing (b) (214) (962) (7,267) (165) Equity raised/(repaid) - 2,274 (450) - Debt raised/(repaid) - 583 5,000 (500) Dividend (incl. tax) (131) (368) (292) (14) Chg in minorities - - - - Other financing activities (4) (73) - - Cash flow from financing (c) (135) 2,416 4,258 (514) Net chg in cash (a+b+c) 210 1,570 (1,831) (215) Balance Sheet Financial Ratios Net fixed assets 2,016 2,265 2,246 2,243 Investments 180 180 7,912 7,912 Other non-curr assets - - - - Current assets 3,089 5,944 3,037 3,136 Inventories 665 663 596 687 Sundry Debtors 696 1,035 886 1,020 Cash and Bank 1,212 2,781 950 735 Loans and advances 506 846 591 680 Total assets 5,285 8,389 13,195 13,291 Shareholders' funds 3,989 6,527 6,520 6,994 Share capital 73 81 81 81 Reserves & surplus 3,917 6,447 6,439 6,913 Total Debt 2 585 5,585 5,085 Secured loans - 583 5,583 5,083 Unsecured loans 2 2 2 2 Other liabilities 135 795 5,795 5,295 Curr Liab & prov 1,161 1,067 880 1,003 Current liabilities 1,161 1,067 880 1,003 Provisions - - - - Total liabilities 1,296 1,861 6,675 6,297 Total equity & liabilities 5,285 8,389 13,195 13,291 Book Value (Rs) 55 81 81 87 Adj EPS (Rs) 11.0 10.0 6.2 6.7 Adj EPS growth (%) 99.6 (9.8) (37.6) 7.1 EBITDA margin (%) 16.5 14.3 11.9 12.9 Pre-tax margin (%) 17.5 15.7 11.5 12.7 ROE (%) 21.3 15.3 7.7 7.9 ROCE (%) 21.8 13.4 5.0 5.3 Turnover & Leverage ratios (x) Asset turnover (x) 1.2 0.9 0.5 0.5 Leverage factor (x) 1.3 1.3 1.7 2.0 Net margin (%) 13.9 13.2 9.2 8.5 Net Debt/Equity (x) -0.3-0.4 0.7 0.6 Working Capital & Liquidity ratios Inventory days 42 40 40 40 Receivable days 44 62 59 59 Payable days 18 18 17 17 Valuation PER (x) 18.1 20.0 32.1 30.0 Price / Book value (x) 3.6 2.5 2.5 2.3 PCE (x) 16.0 17.7 24.4 22.8 EV / Net sales (x) 2.3 2.2 3.8 3.2 EV / EBITDA (x) 13.9 15.2 31.7 25.1 Dividend Yield (%) 2.0 2.5 0.3 0.3 8
Notes Vikrant Oak Head Institutional Equities (91-22) 4322 1385 vikrant.oak@idbicapital.com Sonam H. Udasi Head Research (91-22) 4322 1375 sonam.udasi@idbicapital.com Dealing (91-22) 4322 1150 dealing@idbicapital.com Key to Ratings Stocks: BUY: Absolute return of 15% and above; ACCUMULATE: 5% to 15%; HOLD: Upto ±5%; REDUCE: -5% to -15%; SELL: -15% and below. IDBI Capital Market Services Ltd. (A wholly owned subsidiary of IDBI Ltd.) Registered Office: 2nd floor, Mittal Court C Wing, Nariman Point, Mumbai 400 021. Phones: (91-22) 4322 1212 Fax: (91-22) 2285 0785 Email: info@idbicapital.com Disclaimer This document has been prepared by IDBI Capital Market Services Ltd (IDBI Capital) and is meant for the recipient only for use as intended and not for circulation. This document should not be reproduced or copied or made available to others. 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