ANNUAL ECONOMIC REPORT AJMAN
C O N T E N T S Introduction Growth of the Global Economy Economic Growth in the United Arab Emirates Macro - Economic Growth in the Emirate of Ajman Gross Domestic Product Gross Fixed Capital Formation Prices Foreign Trade Sectoral Economic Growth in the Emirate of Ajman Business Activity Manufacturing Industry Construction and Real Estate Tourism Banks and Insurance 1
INTRODUCTION The Annual Economic Report overviews the salient features of the global economy, UAE economy and describes the macro and sectoral economic changes in the Emirate of Ajman. It traces the development of economic indicators reflecting the trends and direction of investment, and economic growth. It avails economic information to serve potential investors, researchers, planners, decision makers and the business community at large. The report adds to other efforts that aim at building an economic information base to support economic development in the Emirate of Ajman. 2
01 GROWTH OF THE GLOBAL ECONOMY 3
Growth of the Global Economy 1-1 Output Growth Global economic growth according to the IMF slowed to (3.1%) in compared to the realized rate in and is projected to increase to (3.4%) in 2016 and (3.6%) in 2017. Growth in the advanced economies is picking up slowly and is projected to increase to (2.1%) in 2016 and 2017. Growth in the U.S.A economy recorded (2.5%) in assisted by improvements in the housing and labour market as well as the financial condition and forecasted to increase to (2.6%) in 2016 and 2017. Growth in the Euro zone rose to (1.5%) in and projected to increase to (1.7%) in 2016 and 2017 supported by lower oil prices, rising private consumption and conductive financial conditions. Growth in Japan is forecasted to increase to (1%) in 2016, supported by fiscal policy, lower oil prices, rising income and favourable financial conditions. Growth in the emerging markets and developing economies slowed down to (4.0%) in compared to reflecting a declining trend over the last five years. Growth in emerging and developing economies contributed over (70%) to global growth in and projected to pick up to (4.3%) and (4.7%) in 2016 and 2017 respectively as shown below:- 4
Table1-1: Growth of the Global Economy (-2017) Countries 2016 2017 Projections World output 3.4 3.1 3.4 3.6 Advanced economies 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.1 U.S.A 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.6 Euro zone 0.9 1.5 1.7 1.7 Germany 1.6 1.5 1.7 1.7 France 0.2 1.1 1.3 1.5 Italy -0.4 0.8 1.3 1.2 Spain 1.4 3.2 2.7 2.3 Japan 0 0.6 1.0 0.3 U.K 2.9 2.2 2.2 2.2 Canada 2.5 1.2 1.7 2.1 Other advanced economies 2.8 2.1 2.4 2.8 Emerging markets & developing economies 4.6 4 4.3 4.7 Common wealth of independent states 1.0-2.8 0 1.7 Russia 0.6-3.7-1 1.0 Emerging & developing Asia 6.8 6.6 6.3 6.2 China 7.3 6.9 6.3 6.0 India 7.3 7.3 7.5 7.5 Emerging & developing Europe 2.8 3.4 3.1 3.4 Latin America & the Caribbean 1.3-0.3-0.3 1.6 Brazil 0.1-3.8-3.5 0.0 Mexico 2.3 2.5 2.6 2.9 Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan 2.8 2.5 3.6 3.6 Sub-Saharan Africa 5.0 3.5 4.0 4.7 Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Update Jan 2016 The Common Wealth of independent state entered into recession in and forecasted to recover in 2017 with growth projected to be (1.7%). The Russian economy entered into recession in it registered a negative rate of growth of (-3.7%) faced with economic sanctions and low oil prices it is projected to stay in recession in 2016 and pick up at (1.0%) in 2017. Economic growth in China dropped to (6.9%) in compared to and projected to slow down further to (6.3%) and (6.0%) in 2016 and 2017 respectively. The Chinese economy is slowing because of low investment growth resulting from rebalancing away from investment, manufacturing and export led growth towards services, consumption and the domestic market. The Indian economy maintained a relatively high rate of growth of (7.3%) in and and forecasted to increase to (7.5%) in 2016 and 2017. The economies of Latin America & the Caribbean region entered into recession in and forecasted to remain so in 2016 and pick up in 2017.The Brazilian economy registered a negative rate of growth of (-3.8%) in and projected to continue in recession in 2016. The Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan economies 5
slowed down in compared to, growth is projected to increase to (3.6%) in 2016 and 2017. Economic growth in sub-saharan Africa declined to (3.5%) in compared to and forecasted to increase to (4%) in 2016 and (4.7%) in 2017. The global economy will be influenced by a number of factors that pose risks and uncertainty for its growth prospects, these include the following: - - The slow down of emerging market economies. - Rebalancing economic activity in China from investment and manufacturing to reducing imports and exports. This will influence other economies through trade channels and commodity prices. - Deceleration of global trade and low energy and commodity prices, lower oil prices affect the fiscal position, local demand and growth in oil exporting countries, on the other hand it lower energy costs for businesses and support demand in importing countries. The tendency of commodity prices to fall would put pressures on primary products exporting economies. - The gradual change from accommodative and loose monetary policy to a more tight one in the U.S.A would raise interest rates in the developed economies and lead to capital outflow from the emerging market economies. - Low potential growth in the developed economies due to low productivity, aging population and the legacy of the financial crises. 1-2 Global Unemployment As a result of the slow global economic growth the total number of global unemployed people according the ILO increased to (197.1) million in more than level by one million and higher than the pre-crisis level by (27) million. Emerging economies accounted for the bulk of global unemployment in (69%), followed by developed economies (24%) and developing economies (8%). According to the ILO projections, world unemployment is expected to increase to 199.4 million in 2016 and (200.5) million in 2017. The number of global unemployment people is expected to increase by (3.4) million during the period -2017. Unemployment in emerging economies is forecasted to increase by (3.8) million during the period -2017 and by one million in the developing economies, while it is projected to decline by (1.4) million in the developed economies during the same period, the following table shows that the global unemployment rate registered (5.8%) in and is projected to drop slightly to (5.7%) in 2017:- 6
Table1-2:- Global Unemployment Rate & Projections (percentages) -2017 Source: ILO World Employment Social Outlook Trends 2016. Projections Unemployment millions Major countries regions 2016 2017 2016 2017 % % % % The World 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.7 197.1 199.4 200.5 Developed economies 7.1 6.7 6.5 6.4 46.7 46.1 45.3 Emerging economies 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.6 135.3 137.7 139.1 Developing economies 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 15.1 15.6 16.1 European union-19 11.6 10.9 10.7 10.4 Arab states 10.1 10.1 10.2 10.2 China 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.7 Japan 3.5 3.3 3.2 3.1 Republic of Korea 3.5 3.7 3.5 3.4 Russian federation 5.2 5.8 6.2 6.1 Brazil 6.8 7.2 7.7 7.6 North Africa 12.5 12.1 11.8 11.6 Northern, southern & western Europe 10.7 10.1 9.9 9.7 United states 6.3 5.3 4.9 4.7 India 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.4 Sub-Saharan Africa 7.3 7.4 7.5 7.5 South Africa 24.9 25.1 25.5 25.7 Unemployment situation improved in the developed economies from (7.1%) in to (6.7%) in and projected to drop to (6.4%) in 2017. This improvement was due to the performance of the U.S economy where unemployment fell from (6.3%) in to (5.3%) in and projected to continue falling to (4.9%) in 2016 and (4.7%) in 2017. The downward trend in unemployment rates in Northern, Southern & Western Europe also contributed to improving the performance of the developed economies in this respect. South Africa registered the highest rates of unemployment at (24.9%) in forecasted to rise to (25.7%) in 2017. Although North Africa registered a relatively high rate of unemployment of (12.5%) in but the trend is projected to decline to (11.6%) in 2017. Russia and Brazil witnessed rising unemployment from (5.2%) on (6.8%) in and expected to rise to (6.1%) and (7.6%) in 2017 respectively. Unemployment rates in the Arab region remained high at (10.1%) in and projected to witness a slight increase to (10.2%) in 2017. India the republic of Korea and Japan recorded the lowest rate of unemployment at (3.5%) in and forecasted to witness further decline in 2017. 7
-3 0.4 1.4 1.9 1.5 0.7 1.2 2.8 2.5 3.2 5.5 6.4 7.3 6.9 6.5 6.5 8.1 8.9 10.7 9.9 11.2 15 15.9 15.8 1-3 Global Inflation: - Consumer prices statistics reflect variation in global inflation rates across regions, with Europe recording the lower annual rates of (1.2%) and (0.7%) in,, and forecasted to increase to (1.5%) in 2016 as shown below:- Table 1-3:- Consumer Prices (annual percentage change) Countries 2016 Europe 1.2 0.7 1.5 Asia 3.2 2.5 2.8 North America 1.9 0.4 1.4 South America 9.9 15.8 15.0 Latin America & the Caribbean 11.2 10.7-3.0 Common wealth of independent states 8.1 15.9 8.9 Middle East & north Africa 6.5 6.5 5.5 Sub-Saharan Africa 6.4 6.9 7.3 Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Figure 1-1 2016 Global Inflation Rate S U B - S A H A R A N A F R I C A M I D D L E E A S T & N O R T H A F R I C A C O M M O N W E A L T H O F I N D E P E N D E N T S T A T E S L A T I N A M E R I C A S O U T H A M E R I C A & T H E C A R I B B E A N N O R T H A M E R I C A A S I A E U R O P E Latin America & the Caribbean, South America and the common wealth of independent states registered the highest inflation rates in of (11.2%), (9.9%) and (8.1%) respectively. Inflation rates in Latin America & the Caribbean declined to (10.7%) in and projected to drop to (-3.0%) in 2016. Prices in South America increased at a rate of (15.8%) in and forecasted to remain high at (15%) in 2016. Inflation rates in the Common Wealth of independent states increased from (8.1%) in to (15.9%) in and expected to decline to (8.9%) in 2016. The Middle East & North Africa registered moderate rates of inflation of (6.5%) in and and expected to fall to (5.5%) in 2016. Sub-Saharan Africa was associated with relatively modest but rising inflation rates over the period -2016. 8
1-4 Global Trade:- The rate of growth in the volume of global merchandise trade expressed as an average of merchandise exports and imports volumes to cater for variations in inflation and exchange rates across countries amounted to (2.5%) in with no change compared to 2013 and significantly lower than the (13.9%) growth rate realized in 2010 as shown below:- Table 1-4:- Volume of Global Merchandise Trade (%) Annual percentage change in volume of global merchandise trade (%) Source: World Trade Report 2010 2011 2012 2013 13.9 5.3 2.2 2.5 2.5 Figure1-2 Annual percentage change 13.9 2.5 2.5 2.2 5.3 2013 2012 2011 2010 A number of factors contributed to the decline in global trade growth these include slow GDP growth in emerging economies, uneven import demand in developed economies and uneven economic recovery in addition to the geopolitical and natural factors. Merchandise exports of the developed economies dropped from (13.4%) in 2010 to a significantly lower rate of 2% in. Growth of merchandise exports of developing and emerging economies declined to (3.1%) in compared to (15.2%) in 2010. The volume of merchandise exports of developing and emerging economies grew at a relatively higher rate during the period 2011- compared to the growth of merchandise exports of the developed economies as shown below: Table 1-5:- Annual Percentage Change of Exports & Imports Growth % 2010 2011 2012 2013 Merchandise trade exports:- Developed economies 13.4 5.1 1.1 2.2 2.0 Developing & emerging economies 15.2 5.9 3.7 3.8 3.1 Merchandise trade imports:- Developed economies 10.9 3.4 0.0-0.1 2.9 Developing & emerging economies 18.2 7.7 4.9 5.2 1.8 Source: World Trade Report 9
Figure 1-3 Merchandise trade Exports 15.2 13.4 3.1 3.8 3.7 5.9 2 2.2 1.1 5.1 Developing & emerging economies Developed economies 2010 2011 2012 2013 Figure 1-4 Merchandise trade Imports 1.8 5.2 4.9 7.7 18.2 2.9 0 3.4 10.9 Developing & emerging economies -0.1 Developed economies 2010 2011 2012 2013 The growth of merchandise exports and imports reflected a declining trend for both the developed as well as the developing and emerging economies during the period 2010- with the exception of imports of developing and emerging economies grew faster than imports of the developed countries. Rates of growth of world imports of commercial services tend to exceed those of exports during the period 2012-. World exports and imports of services grew in at rates lower than the average for the period 2005- as shown below:- Table 1-6:- Growth of Commercial Services Source: World Trade Report Description 2005-2012 2013 Growth of world exports of commercial services (%) 7 3 5 4 Growth of world imports of commercial services (%) 7 4 6 6 Figure 1-5 Growth of Exports & Imports of Commercial Services 6 4 6 5 4 3 2013 2012 Growth of world exports of commercial services (%) Growth of world imports of commercial services (%) 10
1-5 Global Investment:- Inflows of global foreign direct investment (FDI) witnessed a decline at an annual average rate of growth of (-6.4%) over the period 2012-, from $(1.40) billions in 2012 to $(1.23) billions in. The slow growth of the global economy, coupled with geopolitical risks contributed to the drop in global FDI inflows from $(1.46) billion in 2013 to $(1.23) billion in at a rate of (-16.3%) as shown below:- Region Table1-7:- Global Foreign Direct Investment Inflows FDI inflow (billions of Dollar) % share in world FDI inflow 2012 2013 2012 2013 World 1403 1467 1228 Developed economies 679 697 499 48.4 47.5 40.6 Developing economies 639 671 681 45.6 45.7 55.5 Source: UNCTAD World Investment Report. Figure 1-6 World Developed economies Developing economies 499 679 697 639 671 681 1403 1467 1228 Globle Foreign Direct Investment Inflows 2012 2013 FDI inflows to developed economies declined from $(679) billion in 2012 to $(499) billion in at an annual rate of (-14.3%). Inflows to developing economies on the other grew at an annual rate of (3%) during the period 2012-. The percentage share of the developed economies in global FDI inflows fell from (48.4%) in 2012 to (40.6%) in while that of the developing economies increased from (45.6%) in 2012 to (55.5%) in. Global FDI outflows increased from $(1,284) billions in 2012 to $(1,354) billions in at an annual average rate of (2.7%). Outflows from the developed economies declined at an average annual rate of (-2.9%) from $(873) billion in 2012 to $(823) billion in. Outflows from the developing economies on the other hand increased at an annual rate of (14.5%) from $(357) billions in 2012 to $(468) billions in. While the relative share of 11
the developed economies in global FDI outflows declined, the relative importance of the developing economies increased as illustrated by the following table :- Table 1-8:- Global Foreign Direct Investment Outflows Developing Economies 357 381 468 27.8 29.2 34.6 Source: UNCTAD World Investment Report. Figure 1-7 FDI outflows (billions of dollars) Percentage share in global FDI outflows Region 2012 2013 2012 2013 World 1284 1306 1354 Developed Economies 873 834 823 68 63.8 60.8 Global Foreign Direct Investment Outflows 1284 1306 1354 873 834 823 357 381 468 2012 2013 World Developed Economies Developing Economies Figure 1-8 Percentage share in global Foreign Direct Investment outflows 68 63.8 60.8 27.8 29.2 34.6 2012 2013 Developed Economies Developing Economies 12
02 ECONOMIC GROWTH IN THE UNITED ARAB EMIRATES 13
Economic Growth in UAE Gross domestic product at constant prices in UAE grew at average rate of (4%) from AED (1058,6)b in 2012 to AED (1154,8)b in. Non-oil GDP on the other hand increased from AED (719.3)b in 2012 to AED (791.8)b in at an average annual rate of (5%). The non-financial corporation sector GDP grew at an average annual rate of (4%) over the period 2012-, whereas the financial corporation GDP grew at an average annual rate of (16%) over the period as shown below:- 2-1 Gross Domestic Product Growth:- Table 2-1:- G.D.P by Economic Sectors at Constant (2007) Prices, 2012- (Million Dirhams) Sectors The Non Financial Corporations Sector - Agriculture, Live stock and Fishing - Mining and Quarrying : *Crude oil and Natural Gas *Quarrying Manufacturing Industries. Electricity, Gas and water Construction - Wholesale Retail Trade and Repairing Services - Restaurants and Hotels - Transports, Storage and Communication *Transport, Storage & Other Communication *Telecommunication - Real Estate and business Services - Social and Personal Services The Financial Corporations Sector Financial service activities and activities auxiliary Insurance, reinsurance and activities auxiliary Government Services Sector - Domestic Services of Households 2012 974,508 6,952 341,508 339,315 2,193 96,321 30,488 109,198 123,896 19,913 96,984 67,666 29,318 122,955 26,294 68,404 49,737 18,667 58,587 4,699 (Less : Imputed Bank Services) 47,574 Total 1,058,625 Non-Oil 719,310 Source: Department of Economic Statistics - National Accounts Section 2013 1,006,772 6,934 352,136 349,121 3,015 97,464 31,134 112,936 129,944 21,687 99,479 69,221 30,258 127,540 27,516 81,757 60,358 21,399 65,214 5,639 55,010 1,104,372 755,251 1,045,164 6,952 366,190 362,998 3,192 100,548 32,630 121,201 137,213 22,894 104,180 72,842 31,338 125,794 27,563 91,965 68,726 23,239 72,346 6,190 60,820 1,154,845 791,847 Relative share% % 91 % 1 % 32 % 31 % 0.30 % 9 % 3 % 10 12% 2% 9% 6% 3% 11% 2% 8% 6% 2% 6% 1% 5% Average annual rate of growth 4% 0% 4% 3.40% 21% 2.20% 3.50% 5.40% 5.20% 7.20% 4% 4% 3.40% 1% 2% 16% 18% 12% 11% 15% 13% 4% 5% 14
Restaurant and hotels, construction and trade grew at an average annual rate higher than the economy's average. Real estate, manufacturing industries and oil and gas sector's GDP grew at rates lower than the overall economy's average during 2012-. The non-oil sector accounted for about (68%) of the GDP in of which trade contributed (12%), real estate (11%), construction (10%), manufacturing industries (9%) and finance (8%). Economic growth in UAE slowed down in as a result of the fall in oil prices where real GDP increased by (3.4%). The non-oil GDP grew by (3.7%) in. The extent of economic diversification shielded the economy from a profound impact of the falling oil prices. Oil prices declined at an annual rate of (-22.3%) during the period 2012- as indicated below Table 2-2:- Oil Price $/BL 2012 2013 Oil prices $/BL 112.0 108.9 98.9 52.4 Source: central bank of UAE annual report. Figure 2-1 Oil prices $/BL 112 108.9 98.9 52.4 0 2012 2013 The price of oil dropped by (47%) in compared to and further dropped to (46.8) $/BL by the end the first quarter of 2016 a drop of about (11%) relative to. The fall in oil prices adversely affected government revenue and expenditure both declined by (-25%) and (-15%) respectively in compared to : Table 2-3:- Revenue and Expenditure Revenue (AED b) Expenditure (AED b) oil exports (AED b) Non oil exports (AED b) Trade balance (AED b) Source: central bank annual report 380.7 414.6 409.7 412.8 469.2 284.7 354.4 234.0 450.0 328.3 15
Figure 2-2 Revenue and Expenditure 469.2 328.3 412.8 450 409.7 234 414.6 354.4 380.7 284.7 Trade balance Non oil exports oil exports Expenditure Revenue The value of oil exports declined by (42%) in, trade balance fell by (30%) as well. Non-oil exports on the other hand increased from AED (412.8) b in to AED (450) b in a percentage increase of (9%). 2-2 Gross fixed Capital Formation Growth:- Gross fixed capital formation increased from AED (309.2)b in 2012 to AED (347.9)b in at an annual average growth of (6.1%). The transport, storage & other communication recorded the highest investment growth it grew annually at an average rate of (11.8%) over a period of three years from AED (39,174)m in 2012 to AED (49,001)m in, while investment in telecommunication declined at an annual rate of (-10.5%)same period. The financial corporations sector witnessed high investment growth from AED (6,988)m in 2012 to AED (8,633)m in at an annual growth rate of (11.1%). Investment in construction, restaurants & hotel and social & personal services registered growth rates over (9%) annually during the period 2012-, whereas in the manufacturing industries sector it grew by (7.6%). Investment growth was lower than the overall average in the oil and gas, electricity, gas and water and trade sectors. Over (46%) of total investment in was concentrated in three diversification sectors: manufacturing industries, transport, storage & communication and real estate and business services while oil and gas accounted for (13.6%) as shown below :- 16
Table 2-4:- Gross Fixed Capital Formation, 2012- (Million Dirhams) 2012 2013* * Average annual Sectors Gross Gross Gross rate of growth Relative Fixed Fixed Fixed Share% Capital Capital Capital Formation Formation Formation The Non Financial Corporations Sector 261,758 274,916 301,753 86.70% 7.4% - Agriculture, Live stock and Fishing 874 897 984 6.1% - Mining and Quarrying : 44,082 43,823 48,101 13.80% 4.5% * Crude oil and Natural Gas 43,694 43,390 47,625 13.60% 4.4% * Quarrying 388 434 476 10.8% - Manufacturing Industries 45,940 48,461 53,192 15.20% 7.6% - Electricity, Gas and Water 25,649 24,107 26,460 7.60% 1.6% - Construction 12,325 13,538 14,860 4.20% 9.8% - Wholesale Retail Trade and Repairing Services 16,930 16,806 18,446 5.30% 4.4% - Restaurants and Hotels 6,004 6,522 7,159 2.00% 9.2% - Transport, Storage and Communication 45,986 49,610 54,453 15.60% 8.8% *Transport, Storage & other communication 39,174 44,643 49,001 11.8% *Telecommunication 6,812 4,967 5,452-10.5% - Real Estate and Business Services 47,751 53,495 53,717 15.40% 6.1% - Social and Personal Services 16,217 17,657 19,380 5.50% 9.3% The Financial Corporations Sector 6,988 7,865 8,633 2.50% 11.1% Financial service activities and activities auxiliary 6,862 7,723 8,477 11.1% Insurance, reinsurance and activities auxiliary 126 142 156 11.2% Government Services Sector 40,499 38,782 42,567 12.20% 2.5% Total 309,245 321,563 347,953 6.1% Source: Department of Economic Statistics - National Accounts Section 2-3 Foreign Direct Investment Growth. Foreign direct investment grew at an annual average rate of (12%) from AED (293,047) million in 2012 to AED (367,600) million in. Foreign direct investment grew at a high rate averaging (15%) in the real estate, renting and business activities from AED (71,339) million in 2012 to AED (94,875) million, thus exceeding the economy's average. Foreign direct investment in financial intermediation increased from AED (59,171) million in 2012 to AED (74,273) million at an average annual rate of (12%). Foreign investment in wholesale, retail and repair increased at an average annual rate of (10%) from AED (73,339) million in 2012 to AED (88,269) million in and grew by (11%) annually in manufacturing industries. Real estate, renting and business activities accounted for (26%), the largest share of total foreign direct investment in, followed by wholesale & retail trade (24%), financial intermediation (20%) and manufacturing (10%) as given by the following table:- 17
Table 2-5:-Foreign Direct Investment by Economic Activity 2012- (million) AED Economic activity Agriculture, forestry and fishing Mining and quarrying Manufacturing Electricity,gas,steam and air conditioning supply Construction Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles Transportation and storage Accommodation and food service activities Information and communication Financial intermediation Real estate,renting and business activities Professional, scientific and technical activities Administrative and support service activities Education Human health and social work activities Other services Total Source: federal competitiveness and statistics authority 2012 306 15,155 28,591 6,896 12,815 73,339 6,049 1,605 5,220 59,171 71,339 8,640 2,146 677 1,068 31 293,047 2013 402 16,845 31,013 7,038 14,413 76,499 8,479 685 5,462 67,722 84,962 9,868 2,273 1,088 1,057 72 327,879 (12.7%) of the total inflow of foreign direct investment to UAE in originated from the United Kingdom, followed by the United States (6.5%), India (6%), France (5.6%). Saudi Arabia and Kuwait together accounted for (8.6%) of total foreign direct investment inflow in as shown below: Table 2-6:-Percentage Distribution of Foreign Direct Investment by Main Countries Country 201 17,653 35,340 8,454 17,557 88,269 8,339 694 5,647 74,273 94,835 10,757 3,281 1,107 1,081 113 367,600 United Kingdom United States India France Saudi Arabia Kuwait Iran Source: Calculated from Federal Competitiveness and Statistics Authority. 12.7% 6.5% 6% 5.6% 4.7% 3.9% 3.4% Figure 2-3 Percentage distribution of foreign direct investment 12.70% 3.40% 3.90% 4.70% 5.60% 6% 6.50% Iran Kuwait Saudi Arabia France India United States United Kingdom Linear () 18
2-4 Money Supply Growth:- Money supply M1 which include currency in circulation and banks demand deposits grew at an average annual rate of (15%) from AED (299,173) million in 2012 to AED (456,946) million in shown below: Table 2-7:- Money Supply Indicators Money supply indicators Million AED 2012 2013 Money supply M1 299,173 379,550 Money supply M2 862,374 1,056,770 Money supply M3 1,083,039 1,219,887 Source: Monthly statistical bulletin, banking & monetary statistics Jan 2016, UAE central bank. Figure 2-4 436,132 1,141,119 1,331,984 456,946 1,204,314 1,363,552 Money Supply Growth Money supply M1 1,083,039 1,219,887 1,331,984 1,363,552 1,204,314 Money supply M2 862,374 1,056,770 1,141,119 Money supply M3 456,946 299,173 379,550 436,132 0 Money supply indicators 2012 2013 The supply of money M2 which consists of M1 in addition to quasi monetary deposits (saving accounts, time deposits and deposits in foreign currency) increased from AED (862,374)million in 2012 to AED (1,204, 314) million in at an average annual rate of (11.7%). Money supply M3, which includes M1+M2 plus government deposits, grew at an average annual rate of (8%) from AED (1,083,887) million in 2012 to AED (1,363,552) million in. Money supply grew at a rate higher than the rate of growth of real GDP. 19
2-5 Prices: - The pursue of expansionary monetary policy and the resulting growth in money supply by more than real GDP growth pushed up the level of prices. Price inflation increased from (0.6%) in 2012 to (4.1%) in : Table 2-8:- Price Inflation 2012 0.6% 2013 1.1% 2.3% 4.1% Figure 2-5 Prices Inflation 1.10% 0.60% 2.30% 2013 4.10% 2012 The overall consumer price index (CPI) for the main groups of expenditure increased from (120,84) in to (125,75) in registering a rate of inflation of (4.1%). The price index for housing increased from (111,62) in to (121,47) in to register the highest rate of inflation of (8.83%) as shown below: - Table 2-9:- CPI & Inflation Rates for the Year Compared With the Year -(Base Year 2007=100) Main groups All items Food and soft drinks Beverages and tobacco Textiles, clothing and footwear Housing Furniture and household goods Medical care Transportation Communications Recreation and culture Education Restaurants and hotels Miscellaneous goods and services Source: Competitiveness and Statistics Federal Authority. 120.84 143.11 148.53 109.45 111.62 132.28 107.78 121.85 98.70 116.47 153.48 141.65 127.34 125.75 144.88 150.28 107.68 121.47 135.24 108.15 124.29 98.82 116.54 159.26 145.43 130.10 Inflation rate 4.07 1.23 1.18 1.62 8.83 2.24 0.34 2.00 0.13 0.06 3.76 2.67 2.17 20
The price index of education increased from (153.48) in to (159,26) in registering the second highest inflation rate of (3.76%). The price index of textiles, clothing and footwear declined from (109,45) in to (107,68) in recording a negative rate of inflation of (-1.62). The rate of inflation remained low below (1%) for medical care, communication and recreation and culture. Food and beverages groups registered relatively lower rates of inflation, slightly above (1%). Expenditure groups for furniture and household goods, transportation and restaurants and hotels recorded moderate rates of inflation ranging between (2-3%). 21
03 ECONOMIC GROWTH IN THE EMIRATE OF AJMAN 22
Macro-Economic 3-1 GDP Growth: - Growth in Ajman. Ajman gross domestic product at current market prices increased from AED (15,690) million in 2012 to AED (17,220) million in at an average annual growth rate of (5%). The construction, real estate & business services and the financial corporation sector grew at a relatively higher average annual rate of (8%) during the period 2012-. The manufacturing sector accounted for about (35%) of GDP in increased from AED (5,681) million in 2012 to AED (5,992) million in at an annual average of (3%). The construction sector contributed (15%) to GDP in increased from AED (2,271) million in 2012 to AED (2,626) million in. The wholesale, retail trade and repairing services sectors relative share amounted to (13%) in, it grew by (6%) over the period 2012-. Real estate and business services GDP increased from AED (1,714) million in 2012 to AED (2,008) million in to account for (12%) of the Ajman GDP. Sectors that grew at lower than average include manufacturing, restaurants & hotels, transport, storage and communications, government services and social and personal services as shown below : Table 3-1:- Gross Domestic Product by Economic Activities for the Emirate of Ajman 2012- (million dirhams) Current Market Prices Sectors Financial Corporations Sector The Non - Agriculture, Live stock and Fishing Manufacturing Industries. Electricity, Gas and water Construction - Wholesale Retail Trade and Repairing Services 2012 13,962 199 5,681 395 2,271 1,974 2013* 14,635 205 5,833 412 2,455 2,096 * 15,332 211 5,992 433 2,626 2,206 Relative share % 89% 35% 2.5% 15.2% 12.8% Average annual rate of growth 5% 3% 3% 5% 8% 6% - Restaurants and Hotels - Transports, Storage and Communication - Real Estate and business Services - Social and Personal Services The Financial Corporations Sector 348 917 1,714 463 681 360 954 1,855 465 734 378 995 2,008 483 801 2.2% 5.8% 11.7% 2.8% 4.7% 4% 4% 8% 2% 8% Government Services Sector 997 1,025 1,054 6.1% 3% - Domestic Services of Households (Less : Imputed Bank Services) Total Source: Federal Competiveness and Statistics Authority 230 180 15,690 236 195 16,441 239 211 17,220 1.4% 1.2% 2% 8% 5% 23
3-2 Gross Fixed Capital Formation Growth: - Gross fixed capital formation in the Emirate of Ajman grew at an average annual rate of (5.5%) over the period 2012- it increased from AED (3,638) million in 2012 to AED (4,046) million. Investment in the non-financial corporation sector increased at an average annual rate of (5.9%) from AED (3,019) million in 2012 to AED (3,385) million in. The financial corporation sectors investment on the other hand grew at an average annual rate of (10.6%) during the period 2012- thus recording the highest rate of growth. High growth in gross fixed capital formation also occurred in the restaurants and hotels sector, which registered an average annual rate of (8.7%) during the period 2012-. Investment in the real estate and business services increased from AED (1,246) million in 2012 to AED (1,459) Million in at an average annual rate of (8.2%). Likewise, the construction sectors investment grew annually at an average rate of (7.5%) during the period 2012-. Gross fixed capital formation grew at a rate lower than the overall average in manufacturing, electricity gas, transport, storage and communication and the services sectors as reflected by the following table: Table 3-2: -Gross Fixed Capital Formation, 2012- (Million Dirhams) Sectors 2012 Gross Fixed Capital Formation 2013* Gross Fixed Capital Formation Gross Fixed Capital Formation * Relative contribution Average Annual Growth The Non Financial Corporations Sector - Agriculture, Live stock and Fishing - Manufacturing Industries - Electricity, Gas and Water - Construction - Wholesale Retail Trade and Repairing Services - Restaurants and Hotels - Transport, Storage and Communication - Real Estate and Business Services - Social and Personal Services The Financial Corporations Sector Government Services Sector Total Source: Federal Competiveness and statistics Authority 3,019 21 463 513 116 172 99 124 1,246 265 9 610 3.638 3,185 22 475 535 125 183 102 129 1,349 266 10 627 3.827 3,385 23 490 560 134 192 117 135 1,459 275 11 645 4.046 83.7% 0.6% 12% 14% 3.3% 5% 3% 3% 36% 7% 0.3% 16% 5.9% 4.7% 2.9% 4.5% 7.5% 5.7% 8.7% 4.3% 8.2% 1.9% 10.6% 2.8% 5.5% The distribution of investment between economic sectors shows that (36%) of total investment in was accounted for by the real estate and business sector. The government services sector accounted for (16%) of total investment in, (14%) was the share of electricity and gas and (12%) manufacturing. Although restaurants and hotels recorded relatively high investment growth, its relative share in total investment was only (3%) in. 24
3-3 Prices: - The overall consumer price index for the emirate of Ajman increased from (127.83) in December to (130.39) in December to register an inflation rate of (2%). The main groups of expenditure that contributed to inflation in Ajman include housing, restaurants and hotels, education and recreation & culture goods and services. The consumer price index for housing increased from (114.68) in December to (121.31) in December resulting in inflation rate of (5.8%). The restaurants and hotels expenditure group consumer price index increased from (157.96) in December to (162.69) in December to register an inflation rate of (2.99%). The cost of the education expenditure group has increased by an inflation rate of (2.97%), where the consumer price index increased from (131.08) in December to (134.98) in December. The prices of recreation and culture expenditure group has gone up by an inflation rate of (2.93%) in December. As in the following table Table 3-3:- Consumer Price Index for the Major Expenditure Groups in Ajman Major Group of Expenditure December Rate of Inflation Overall Consumer Price Index 127.83 130.39 2.00 Food and Soft Drinks 163.12 161.83 0.79- Beverages and Tobacco 149.17 149.17 - Textiles, clothing and footwear 113.84 115.68 1.61 Housing 114.68 121.31 5.78 Furniture and household goods 135.04 133.85 0.88- Medical Care 109.35 108.86 0.44- Transportation 123.10 122.11 0.80- Communications 106.32 106.46 0.13 Recreation and culture goods and services 102.60 105.61 2.93 Education 131.08 134.98 2.97 Restaurants and hotels 157.96 162.69 2.99 Miscellaneous good and services 135.25 135.15 0.07- Source: Federal Competitiveness and Statistics Authority The consumer price index for December in Ajman fell with respect to the following expenditure groups : - Food soft drink Furniture and household goods Medical care Transportation. 25
3-4 Foreign Trade A) - Exports: The value of Ajman exports increased by (2%) in compared to from AED (1,488) million to AED (1,781) shown below:- Table 3-4:- Ajman Exports by Industrial Activity AED (millions) - Exports Metal products, machinery & equipment industries Food, beverages and tobacco industry Value AED Million 552 293 114 258 Percentage % 16% 14% *Average annual growth % -47% 126% Chemical, petroleum products & plastic industry 131 140 8% 7% Non-metal mineral products industry 203 92 5% -55% Basic metal industries Other manufacturing industries Textile, readymade garments and leather industries Wood, wooden products and furniture industry Paper, paper products, printing & publishing industry Others Total 60 89 12 57 98 50 56 28 13 16 249 759 1,488 1,781 5% 3% 3% 2% 1% 43% 100% 48% 375% -49% -50% 15% 205% 20% Source: Ajman Chamber of Commerce & Industry. * Growth Rates Calculated Other manufacturing exports grew by (375%) from AED (12) million in to AED (57) million in. The food, beverages & tobacco industry exports increased from AED (114) million in to AED (258) million in registering a high annual growth rate of (126%). The basic metal industries exports increased by (48%) from AED (60) million in to AED (89) million in. The exports value of the metal products, machinery & equipment industries declined from AED (552) in to AED (293) million in, registering a negative annual growth rate of (-47%). Negative growth was also recorded by the exports of the textile, readymade garments and leather industries that declined from AED (98) million in to AED (50) in at a percentage rate of (-49%). The exports of the non-metal mineral products industry dropped from AED (203) million in to AED (92) million in a percentage decline of (-55%). The value of exports of the wood, wooden products and furniture industry declined at an annual rate of (-50%) from AED (56) million in to AED (28) million in. 26
The relative importance of the exports of the metal products machinery and equipment declined from (37%) in to (16%) of the value of total exports in. Food, beverages and tobacco industry exports, on the other hand increased in importance from about (8%) in to (14%) of the value of total exports in. The chemical, petroleum products & plastic industry accounted for (8%) of the value of total exports in. The geographical distribution of Ajman exports indicates that the GCC and Arab countries together accounted for (56%) of the value of total exports in as shown below:- Table 3-5:-Ajman Exports by Region Regions Value AED (millions) Percentage Share % GCC 555 31% Arab Countries 445 25% Asia 230 13% Africa 82 5% Europe 68 4% North America 23 1% Oceania 5 0.2% South America 3 0.1% Others 370 21% Total 1,781 100 Source: Ajman chamber of Commerce &Industry Figure 3-1 Export by Region GCC Arab Countries Asia Africa Europe Others 401 Other GCC 555 68 82 230 445 (13%) of the value of Ajman's total exports in was directed to Asia, whereas (5%) went to Africa. Saudi Arabia as a major trade partner with Ajman accounted for (16%) of the value of total exports equivalent to AED (281) million in as shown below:- Table 3-6:- Ajman Exports Main Destination Country Value AED (millions) Percentage Share % Saudi Arabia 281 16% Iraq 230 13% Qatar 153 9% Kuwait 57 3% Sudan 50 3% India 45 3% Others 965 53% Total 1,781 100 Source: Ajman chamber of commerce & industry. Iraq was the second major country receiving exports from Ajman, it accounted for (13%) of total export in followed by Qatar which accounted for (9%). 27
B) - Re- exports:- The value of Ajman re-exports amounted to AED (3,345) million in compared to AED (4,077) million in a percentage decline of (-18%). The following table shows that (98%) of the value, Ajman re-export, trade was directed to four region in :- Table 3-7:- Ajman Re-Exports by Region - Region Value % Value % Growth Rate % GCC 1,170 29% 1,578 47% 35% Arab Countries 2,007 49% 812 24% -60% Asia 497 12% 474 14% -5% Africa 308 8% 250 7% -18% North America 23 0.6% 21 0.6% -9% Europe 24 0.6% 18 0.5% -25% South America 11 0.3% 11 0.3% 0% Oceania 3 0.1% 1 0.03% -67% Others 34 0.8% 178 5% 424% Total 4,077 100% 3,345 100% -18% Source: Ajman chamber of commerce & industry. The GCC accounted for one third of re-export trade (29%) in. About half of the value of re-exports (49%) was directed to the other Arab Countries in. The share of Asia was (12%), whereas Africa accounted for (8%) of the Ajman's re-exports value in. Thus, the Arab region alone accounted for more than three quarters of Ajman's reexports in. Re-exports to the GCC increased from AED (1,170) million in to AED (1,578) million in at an annual rate of (35%). Accordingly the GCC relative share in total re-exports value increased from (29%) in to (47%) in. Re-exports to the other Arab Countries declined at an annual rate of (-60%) from AED (2,007) million in to AED (812) million in and its relative share fell to (24%). Re- exports to Saudi Arabia grew by (36%) in it increased from AED (862) millions in to AED (1,175) millions thus accounting for more than one third of the value of Ajman re-exports. Re-exports directed to Qatar increased from AED(135) million in to AED (215) million at annual rate of (59%), doubling its relative share from (3%) to (6%) as shown below:- 28
Table 3-8:- Ajman Re-Exports Main Destination - Country Value % Value % Annual Growth % Saudi Arabia 862 21% 1,175 35% 36% Iran 318 8% 306 90% -4% Libya 1,414 35% 235 7% -83% Qatar 135 3% 215 6% 59% Ethiopia 185 5% 198 6% 7% Iraq 286 7% 122 4% -57% Yemen 29 0.7% 116 3% 300% Sudan 86 2% 115 3% 34% Jordan 70 2% 110 3% 57% Bahrain 62 2% 74 2% 19% Kuwait 46 1% 67 2% 46% Algeria 72 2% 58 2% -19% Oman 65 2% 46 1% -29% Egypt 39 0.9% 45 1% 15% India 49 1% 37 1% -24% Others 359 9% 424 13% 18% Total 4,077 3,345-18% Source: Ajman chamber of commerce & industry. Figure 3-2 Ajman Rexport Countries 300% Yemen Saudi Arabia Libya Ethiopia Yemen Jordan Kuwait Iran Qatar Iraq Sudan Bahrain Algeria 36% 59% 7% 34% 57% 19% 46% 15% 18% -4% -83% -57% -19% -29% -24% Re-exports trade grew fast with a number of countries including Yemen (300%), Jordan (57%), Kuwait (46%) and Sudan (34%). Negative re-exports growth is recorded with countries suffering from unrest and instability such as Libya (-83%), Iraq (-57%), but re-exports to India and Iran also suffered negative growth. 29
C) - Imports:- Ajman total imports grew by (4%) from AED (6,020) million in to AED (6,282) million in. Imports of machinery and mechanical appliances recorded the highest rate of growth (41%) it increased from AED (478) million in to AED (673) million in as illustrated below:- Table 3-9:- Ajman Major Imports AED (millions) -. Annual growth % Imports Value % Value % Animals & animal products 1,215 20% 1,344 21% 11% Miscellaneous manufactured articles 1,090 18% 998 16% -8% Prepared food stuff 986 16% 1,080 17% 10% Textiles & textile articles 819 14% 860 14% 5% Mineral products 542 9% 379 6% -30% Machinery & mechanical appliances 478 8% 673 11% 41% Others 890 15% 948 15% 7% Total 6,020 100 6,282 100 4% Source: Ajman Port and Customs Department. Animal and animal products imports increased from AED (1,215) million in to AED (1,344) million in at (11%) growth rate. Imports of animal and animal products accounted for (21%) of the value of total imports in. The imports of the miscellaneous manufactured articles registered a negative growth of (-8%) and accounted for (16%) of the value of total imports in. Prepared food imports on the other hand grew at an annual rate of (10%) and constituted about (17%) of the total value of imports in. The textiles & textiles articles imports stood as the fourth major import category with a relative share of (14%) in. Although imports from china dropped slightly, it represented the main source of Ajman imports with a share of (27%) of the value of total imports in. Imports from Brazil as the second major supplier of Ajman imports grew from AED (841) million in to AED (958) million in at an annual rate of (14%) as shown below : - Table 3-10:- Origin of Ajman Imports AED Million: Country Value % Value % Annual growth % China 1,717 28% 1,716 27% -0.05% Brazil 841 14% 958 15% 14% Islamic republic of Iran 523 7% 366 6% -30% India 432 6% 473 8% 9% United states of America 324 5% 255 4% -21% Thailand 305 5% 510 8% 67% France 257 4% 267 4% 4% Others 1,877 31% 1737 28% -7% Total 6,276 100 6,282 100 0.1% Source: Ajman Port and Customs Department. 30
Imports from Thailand registered the fastest rate of growth of (67%) increasing from AED (305) millions in to AED (510) million in. Figure 3-3 Origin of Ajman Imports 1,716 1,717 958 841 267 257 510 305 255 324 473 432 366 523 France Thailand United states of America India Islamic republic of Iran Brazil China 31
04 SECTORAL ECONOMIC GROWTH IN THE EMIRATE OF AJMAN 32
Business Activity 4-1 Business Outlook The business confidence index (BCI) for Q12016 which was based on a business survey managed by DED registered 109 points reflecting optimism and a positive stable economic outlook in Ajman. The majority of the businesses are expecting either growth or stability in the business environment. (71%) of the business in Ajman are expecting either stability (49%) or growth (32%) in sales revenues. Over half of the companies (51%) are not expecting stability in profitability. The majority of the firms (62%) expressed views to maintain their employment at the current level while (31%) expect to increase employment. Regarding purchase orders, the bulk of companies expressed views to keep purchase orders at current level, while (24%) plan to increase purchase orders. Exporting firms displayed more optimism than non-exporting firms with respect to sales revenues, volumes, profitability and purchase orders. (41%) of the exporting firms expect to increase their sale revenues where as for the non-exporting firms the proportion is lower at (30%). The survey reveals that large business enterprises are more optimistic than SMEs with a BCI of 121 points compared to 108 points. The construction sector figure out as the most optimistic sector with a BCI of 122 points while manufacturing and trade came as the least optimistic sectors with a BCI of 102 each. Foreign companies displayed optimism about business prospects in Ajman. The survey respondents cited competition and rising cost of rental as the main challenges facing the business sector in Ajman. - Business Growth The total number of licensees including newly issued and renewals for all types increased from (23,802) in 2013 to (24,790) in registering an average annual rate of growth of 2%. Business grew fast in professional services where new licenses increased from (998) in 2013 to (15,040) in at an annual average growth of 24% as shown below: Table 4-1:- New and Renewed Licenses 2013 Year New Trade Renewals New professional Renewals Industrial New Renewals Bidayat New Renewals Total 2013 1,350 11,599 998 9,044 50 723 25 13 23,802 1,852 12,296 1299 9,504 65 754 43 19 25,830 1,652 11,688 1540 9,126 56 687 25 16 24,790 Average annual growth 10.60% 0.38% 24.20% 0.45% 5.80% -2.50% 0 10.90% 2% Source: Ajman Department of Economic Development 33
Figure 4-1 11,688 12,296 11,599 9,126 9,504 9,044 New and Renewal Licenses 2013-1,852 1,652 1,350 1540 1299 998 56 65 50 687 754 723 25 43 25 16 19 13 New Renewal New Renewal New Renewal New Renewal Trade professional Industrial Bidayat 2013 Professional licenses accounted for 47% of the total newly issued licenses in. New trade licenses issued on the other hand which constituted (50%) of the total new licenses issued in grew at an average annual rate of 11% from (1,350) in 2013 to (1,652) in. New industrial licenses increased at an average annual rate of (6%) from (50) in 2013 to (56) in. Renewals grew at an annual average rate of less than (1%) in the professional and trade sectors, during the period 2013-2013. Industrial renewals declines at an average annual rate of (2.5%), while Bidayat renewals increased at an annual rate of 11% during the period 2013-. New business grew at annual rate of 13% in Q1 2016 compared to Q1 where the total number of new licenses issued increased from (940) to (1058). New trade licenses increased at an annual rate of 14% from (494) in Q1 to (564) in Q2016. New industrial and professional licenses grew by 24% and 12% respectively in Q1 2016 as shown below:- Table 4-2:- New and Renewal Licenses Q1 Q1 2016 Types of licenses Q1 Q1 2016 Annual growth% Trade Professional Industrial Bidayat Newly issued licenses Renewed licenses New licenses Renewed licenses New licenses Renewed licenses New licenses Renewed licenses Total New Renewed Source: Ajman Department of Economic Development. 494 3,456 423 2,634 17 213 6 7 940 6,310 564 3,393 473 2580 21 190 0 3 1,058 6,166 14% -1.8% 11.8% -2% 23.5% -10.7% -57% 12.5% -2.3% 34
Renewals of all types of licenses declined in Q1 2016 compared to Q1. The renewals of licenses in Ajman free zone grew at an annual average rate (36%) during the period 2013- as shown below:- Table 4-3:- License Renewals at the Free Zone 2013 - License renewals 2013 2,890 3,842 Source: Ajman Statistical Yearbook, Statistics & Research Administration Executive Council. 5,383 Figure 4-2 Renewals 5,383 2,890 3,842 2013 New licenses issued in Ajman free zone increased from (1,275) license in Q1 to (1,438) license in Q4 a percentage increase of (13%). Renewals of licenses grew by (17%) in the free zone from (997) in Q1 to (1,162) in Q4 as shown below: - Table 4-4:- New and Renewed licenses in Ajman free zone Q1 Q4 licenses Q1 Q2 New licenses 997 1,208 Renewed licenses 1,275 1,449 Source: Ajman in Figures 2016: Statistics & Research Administration Executive Council. Figure 4-3 Q3 1,022 1,221 Q4 1,162 1,438 New & Renewal Licenses 1,275 997 Q1 1,449 1,208 Q2 1,221 1,022 Q3 1,438 1,162 Q4 Renewed licenses New licenses 35
In the first quarter of 2016 new licenses increased by (8%), while renewed licenses grew by (36%). The total membership of Ajman chamber increased at an average annual rate of 10% from 27,829 in 2013 to 33,906 in reflecting business growth as shown below : - Table 4-5:- Membership of Ajman Chamber of Commerce & Industry 2013-2013 Trade 17,419 Professional 9,658 Industrial 752 Total 27,829 Source: Ajman Chamber of Commerce & Industry 18,409 9,969 725 29,103 22,063 11,081 762 33,906 Average annual growth % 13% 7% 0.7% 10% Figure 4-4 Membership of Ajman 17,419 18,409 22,063 9,658 9,969 11,081 752 725 762 2013 Trade Professional Industrial Trade membership constituted (65%) of total membership in, followed by professional membership (33%) and industrial membership (2%). Trade membership grew at an average annual rate of (13%) from (17,419) in 2013 to (22,063) in. Professional membership increased at an average annual rate of (7%), while industrial membership grew an average annual rate of less than (1%) over the period 2013-. 36
4-2 Manufacturing Industries: - Manufacturing licenses grew at an average annual rate of (5%) during the period 2012-. The highest average annual growth was recorded by the refined petroleum products industries at (10%) during the period 2012- as shown below:- Table 4-6:- Distribution of Licenses by Industrial Activities Industrial sub-sectors Craft industries Recycling Furniture & other products Other transport equipment Motor vehicles and trailers Machinery & electrical appliances Machinery & equipment manufacturing Metal products industries Basic metal industries Non-metal industries Rubber & plastic products industries Chemical & chemical products industries Refined petroleum products industry Printing & publishing industries Paper & paper products industries Wood & wood products industries Leather & leather products industries Readymade garments industries Textile industry Tobacco products industries Food & beverage industries Total Source: Ministry of Economy. Average annual growth 2012-4% 0.0% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0% 4.4% 0.0% 6.0% 0.0% 1.0% 9.0% 2.2% 10.0% 5.0% 6.0% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 5.0% 0.0% 9.0% 5.0% Percentage contribution % 1.5% 0.7% 7.0% 1.6% 0.9% 1.4% 1.4% 13.7% 1.0% 9.2% 14.5% 7.8% 5.2% 2.6% 5.2% 5.3% 0.9% 7.6% 5.0% 0.1% 7.5% 100 The rubber & plastic products industries and the food & beverages industries both recorded a high average annual growth of (9%) during the period 2012-. Industries that grew at an average annual rate above the overall average of manufacturing include metal products industries and wood products industries. The rubber and plastic products industries accounted for (15%) of the total industrial licenses in. The share of the metal products industries amounted to (14%) of the licenses in.the non-metallic mineral products accounted for (9%) of total licenses while the share of the food & beverages, textile and chemical and products industries accounted for (8%) each in. Industrial investment grew at an average annual rate of 2% during the period 2012-. The paper and paper products industries registered the highest average annual investment growth at (7%) as shown below:- 37
Table 4-7:- Investment Growth by Industrial Activities Industrial sub-sectors Craft industries Recycling Furniture & other products Other transport equipment Motor vehicles Machinery & electrical appliances Machinery & equipment manufacturing Metal products industries Basic metal industries Non-metallic mineral products Rubber & plastic products industries Chemical & chemical products industries Refined petroleum products industry Printing & publishing industries Paper & paper products industries Wood & wood products industries Leather & leather products industries Readymade garments industries Textile industry Tobacco products industries Food & beverages industries Total Source: - Ministry of Economy. Average annual growth 2012- % 4.4% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 1.2% 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 7.0% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 3.4% 0.0% 2.0% 2.0% Percentage contribution % 0.2% 0.1% 4.0% 1.5% 0.2% 1.1% 1.0% 10.5% 4.4% 17.3% 17.5% 6.1% 4.2% 2.2% 7.7% 5.5% 0.3% 3.9% 1.6% 0.01% 10.1% 100 Investment grew at a rate above the overall average during the period 2012- in the craft industries, refined petroleum products industries and the textile industry. About of (18%) of total investment in was accounted for by the rubber and plastic products industries, followed by the non-metallic mineral products (17%) and the metal products industries (11%). Industrial employment grew at an average annual rate of 2% during the period 2012-. Employment in the refined petroleum products industry grew at a high annual rate of (8%), followed by the rubber & plastic products industries at (6%) and the food and beverages industry at (5%) as indicated below:- 38
Table 4-8:- Industrial Labour Growth and Distribution Industrial sub-sectors Croft industries Recycling Furniture & other products Other transport equipment Motor vehicles Machinery & electrical appliances Machinery & equipment manufacturing Metal products industries Basic metal industries Non-metallic mineral products Rubber & plastic products industries Chemical & chemical products industries Refined petroleum products industry Printing & publishing industries Paper & paper products industries Wood & wood products industries Leather & leather products industries Readymade garments industries Textile industry Tobacco products industries Food & beverages industries Total Source: - Ministry of Economy. Average annual growth 2012- % 2.0% 0.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.3% 0.0% 3.4% 0.0% 0.2% 6.0% 1.4% 8.1% 2.0% 4.0% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 3.4% 0.0% 5.3% 2.0% Percentage contribution % 1.3% 0.3% 3.6% 3.0% 1.3% 0.8% 1.0% 10.4% 4.2% 9.8% 7.0% 3.6% 2.7% 2.3% 4.4% 6.6% 0.8% 27.8% 3.7% 0.3% 4.7% 100 (28%) of the total industrial employment in was concentrated in the readymade garments industries. The metal products industries and the non-metallic mineral products each accounted for (10%) of total employment in. 39
4-3 Construction and Real Estate:- The total number of real estate establishments according to the economic establishment census amounted to (283) in 2013. The majority of the establishments (94%) small firms employing less than 9 workers, (89%) have capital less than one million AED as given by the following table :- Table 4-9:-Real Estate Firms Classified According to Labour, Capital & Legal Entity 2013 Labour, Capital categories & Legal entity Number of Establishments Relative Share % Labour:- Capital:- (99%) of the total number of Real Estate, establishments employ between 1-24 workers. (96%) have capital less than 10 million AED. Real Estate firms can be classified into two main legal forms with (63%) are sole proprietorship and (34%) are limited liability companies. Tenancy contracts declined to (19,860) in 2013 relative to the previous year and increased at a percentage rate of (45%) to (28,826) in. The number of building permits increased from (2,311) in 2012 to (3,251) in at an average annual rate of (19%) as shown below:- Figure 4-5 1-9 workers 10-24 workers More than 25 workers 265 14 4 94% 5% 1% Total 283 100% Less than one million AED 1-10 million AED More than 10 million AED 253 19 11 89% 7% 4% Total 283 100% Legal Entity:- Sole proprietorship 179 63% Limited liability company 97 34% others 7 3% Total 283 100% Source: Ajman Annual Statistical Book Executive Council Table 4-10:-Building Permits, Tenancy Contracts & Completed Buildings 2012 - Year 2012 2013 Annual Average Building permits 2,311 2,539 3,251 Rate of growth Tenancy contracts 35,462 19,860 28,826 "completed buildings" % Completed buildings 1,091 1,310 1,597 21% Source: Ajman Annual Statistical Book Executive Council. 2013 2012 1,597 1,310 1,091 Completed buildings 35,462 28,826 19,860 Tenancy contracts 3,251 2,539 2,311 Building permits 40
Completed buildings grew at an annual average rate of (21%) from (1,091) in 2012 to (1,597) in. The main real estate developers increased from (13) in 2013 to (53) in. The total number of issued ownership certificates grew at an annual average rate of (37%) from 1,789 in 2012 to (3,339) in. All types of building permits grew at high rates over the period 2012-. Government buildings permits increased at an average annual rate of (64%) while residential and commercial buildings permits grew annually at (41%) as indicated below- Table 4-11:- Building Permits Issued Classified by Type Type of building 2012 2013 Average Annual Growth Residential villas 839 1,025 1,340 26% % share 36% 41% Residential & commercial building 154 187 307 41% % share 7% 9% Industrial buildings 101 99 141 18% % share 4% 4% Government buildings 10 27 27 64% % share 0.4% 0.8% Maintenance 623 462 686 4.9% % share 27% 21% Others % share 584 25% 739 750 23% Total 2,311 2,539 3,251 18.6% Source: Ajman Annual Statistical Book Executive Council. Residential villas permits increased from 839 in 2012 to 1,340 in at an average annual rate of (26%). The relative share of residential villas increased from (36%) in 2012 to (41%) of total permits in. Industrial buildings permits grew at an annual rate of (18%) during the period 2012-. The total number of land transaction increased from (7,899) in 2012 to (20,317) in at an average annual rate of (60%). The following table gives the breakdown of land transactions:- Table 4-12:- Land Transactions by Type in Ajman Description 2012 2013 Average annual growth Sales 1,498 3,056 3,161 45% (19%) (16%) Mortgage 1,50 321 250 29% (1.8%) (1.2%) Waiver 133 214 143 4% (1.6%) (0.7%) Issuance of site map 3,066 6,210 7,951 61% (39%) 39% Mortgage 122 185 189 24% release (1.5%) (0.9%) Issuance of bond property 2,930 6,545 8,623 72% (37%) (42%) Total number of transactions 7,899 16,531 20,317 60% Source: Ajman Annual Statistical Book Executive Council. 41
The bulk of the transactions was in the form of issuance of bond property which accounted for (42%) of the total in. (39%) of the land transaction in was accounted for by the issuance of city map, whereas sales constituted (16%). The number of bond property issuance transactions grew at an average annual rate of (72%) from (2,930) in 2012 to (8,623) in. The number of transactions of site map issuance grew from (3,066) in 2012 to (7,951) in at an annual rate of (61%), while land sales transaction increased at an annual rate of (45%) during the same period. The value of land transactions grew at an average annual rate of (74%) over the period 2012- as given below:- Table 4-13:-Value and Land Transactions 2012 - Year 2012 2013 Land transactions total value AED Average annual growth 1,167,557,975 2,071,602,947 3,531,153,186 G=74% Source: Ajman Annual Statistical Book Executive Council. Figure 4-6 Land transactions total value AED 1,167,557,975 3,531,153,186 2,071,602,947 2012 2013 42
4-4 Tourism Ajman 2021 vision focused on tourism as a strategic sector that is expected to contribute significantly to economic development in the emirate of Ajman. Tourism infrastructure witnessed important changes. The supply of hotels and hotel apartments increased significantly at a percentage rate of about (17%) from (30) establishments in the first quarter of to (35) in the first quarter of. The total number of establishments increased at an annual average rate of (8.7%) over the period 2012- from (28) in 2012 to (36) in. The number of hotels increased by (23%) in the first quarter of compared by the first quarter of, while the number of hotel apartments increased by (11.7%) during the same period. The following table shows the development of tourism indicators Table 4-14:- Tourism Indicators During the period 2010-2012 Period Q1 Q1 End of year Total Number of Establishments 30 35 28 No. of Hotels 13 16 10 No. of Hotels Apartments 17 19 18 Total Number of Beds 4,876 4,788 4,226 No. of Hotel Beds 2,707 2,844 2,034 No. of Hotels Apartments Beds 2,169 1,944 2,192 Total Number of Rooms 3,041 3,140 2,503 No. of Hotels rooms 1,847 1,943 1,125 No. of Hotels Apartments rooms 1,194 1,197 1,378 Source: Tourism Statistics 2012,2013,, depart of Tourism Development 2013 End of year 29 11 18 3,975 2,061 1,914 2,730 1,526 1,204 End of year 31 4,938 2,992 End of year 36 5,074 3,354 Figure 4-7 4,226 2,503 28 2012 3,975 2,730 29 2013 4,938 2,992 31 5,074 3,354 36 Total Number of Rooms Total Number of Beds Total Number of Establishments The total number of hotels and hotels apartments beds increase from (4226) in 2012 to (5074) in at an annual average rate of (6.2%) over the period 2012 -. Hotels and hotel apartments room number in Q1 increased by (3.2%) compared to Q2 and registered a relatively high annual rate of growth of (10.2%) over the period 2012. The increase in the supply of tourism facilities would contribute to lowering the cost of accommodation and increase tourism attraction. 43
The overall average room prices declined by (4.6%) from (275.8) AED in to (263) AED in with the exception of the 4 stars hotels, the rates for the rest of the hotel and hotel apartments dropped by varying proportions as shown below :- Type of Hotel Table 4-15:-Average (Room Rate Night/Year) (AED) Q1 Q1 End of year End of year 5 stars hotels 298.51 596.4 522.5 514.3 4 stars hotels 214.72 201.2 203.4 212 2 stars hotels 225.77 211.8 217.4 201.2 1 star hotels 239.54 202.9 229.5 187.5 Superior hotel apartment 252.7 268.13 246.7 244 Standard hotel apartment 227.02 242.8 235.3 219 Overall Average 275.8 263 Source: Department of Tourism Development Figure 4-8 End of year Average Night Room rate/ Year End of year 514.3 522.5 219 235.3 244 246.7 187.5 229.5 201.2 217.4 212 203.4 Standard hotel apartment Superior hotel apartment 1 star hotels 2 stars hotels 4 stars hotels 5 stars hotels Rates of 1 star hotels declined by (18%) from (229.5) AED in to (187.5) AED in. The fall in the rates of hotel and hotel apartment accommodation enhances the price competitiveness of the emirate and induces further tourism demand. 44
Although the total number of hotel and hotel apartment guest dropped by (39%) to (509,658) by the end of the year compared to, the performance during the first and the last quarter of reflected a rising trend as shown below: Table 4-16:-Number of Guests, Guest Night and Room Nights: Number of Guests, Guest nights and Room night Total Number of Guests No. of Hotel Guest Q1 218,102 146,947 Total 840,644 597,859 Q1 118,173 79,378 Q2 119,376 79,829 Q3 130,953 86,373 Q4 141,156 96,914 Total 509,658 342,494 No. of Hotels Apartment Guest 71,155 242,785 38,795 39,547 41,409 40,959 160,710 Others* 3,171 3,283 6,454 Total Number of Guest nights 242,752 895,779 441,281 324,692 300,948 325,485 1,392,406 No. of Guest nights 123,604 474,224 180,996 176,194 172,344 200,750 730,284 No. of Apartment Guest nights 119,148 421,555 260,285 148,498 118,330 119,689 646,802 Others 10,274 5,046 15,320 Total Number of Room nights 202.968 186,063 190,735 208.860 788.626 No. of Hotels room nights 150,100 115,070 114,437 128,510 No. of Hotels Apartments room nights Others 90,800 70,993 73,251 3,047 77,580 80,127 Source: Department of Tourism Development, Tourism Statistics, *Others include furnished apartments, resorts and motels. Figure 4-9 NUMBER OF GUESTS AND GUESTS NIGHT - 895,779 1,392,406 840,644 509,658 Total Number of Guests Total Number of Guest nights The total number of Guests for both types of accommodation increased from (118,173) in Q1 to (141.156) in Q4 a percentage rise of (19.4%). This increment was accounted for mainly by hotel guests, which grew by 22% in the last quarter of compared to the first quarter, which hotel apartment guests increased at a relatively lower rate of (5.6%) during the same period. Total guest nights increased from (895,779) in to (1,392,406) nights in, a percentage increase of (55%). Total guest nights for both types of accommodation increased at the same rate in. The other type of accommodation which include furnished apartments, resorts and motels is increasing in importance particularly in the second half of where the total number of room nights increased by (25.30%) from (3,047) night in the third quarter to (80,127) nights in the fourth quarter of. 45
The increase in tourism demand raised occupancy for hotel and hotel apartment which reflected a rising rate over the period 2012- as indicated below:- Table 4-17:-Occupancy Rate 2012-2012 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Hotels 55% 59.5% 62% 59% 59% 64% Hotel apartments 60% 70.5% 71% 63% 68% 71% Source: department of tourism development: tourism statistics 2012,, and. Figure 4-10 Occupancy Rate 71% 64% 68% 59% 63% 59% 71% 62% Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 Hotels Hotel apartments Hotels occupancy rate increased from (55%) in 2012 to (60%) in and (64%) in the fourth quarter of. Occupancy for hotel apartments which increased from (60%) in 2012 to (71%) in the last quarter of, reflected a higher rate relative to hotels indicating more preference for this type of accommodation. Total hotel and hotel apartment revenue increased at a high average annual rate of (31%) from (159) m AED in 2012 to (357) million AED in as shown below:- Table 4-18:- Revenue (AED) Million 2012 - YEAR 2012 2013 Hotels 123 156 217 290 Hotel Apartments 36 65 65 67 Total 159 221 282 357 Source: tourism statistic 2012/2013// department of tourism development. 46
Figure 4-11 Hotels & Hotel Apartments Reveune 67 65 65 36 123 156 217 290 2012 2013 Hotels Hotel apartments The revenue generated from both type of accommodation reflected a rising trend over the period 2012-. Hotels revenue increased from (123) million AED in 2012 to (290) million AED in at an annual average rate of (33%). Hotel apartment revenue increased at an average annual rate of (23%) from (36) million AED in 2012 to (67) million AED in. UAE national, GCC, and other Arab nationalities accounted for (60%) of the total number of guests visiting the Emirate of Ajman in as given by the following Table:- Table 4-19:- Number of Guests by Nationality 2012 Number of Guests by Nationality % Number % UAE 7% 132,455 26% GCC 4% 93,510 18.30% Other Arabs 7% 78,905 15.50% Asians & Africans 13% 89,113 17.50% Europeans 22% 45,659 8.90% Americans/ Aus./ Pacific _ 19,934 3.90% Russia/ CIS/ Baltics 38% 50,082 9.80% Total Guests Source: Department of Tourism Development, Tourism Statistics, 100% 509,658 100% 47
Figure 4-12 Number of Guests by Nationality 50,082 Russia/ CIS/ Baltics 19,934 Americans/ Aust/ Pacific 45,659 Europeans 89,113 Asians & Africans 78,905 Other Arabs 132,455 93,510 GCC UAE UAE nationals accounted for (26%) of the total number of guests in rising from (7%) in 2012. The share of the GCC Nationalities increased from (4%) in 2012 to (18.3%) of the total number of guests in. The relative importance of the Asians and Africans increased from (13%) in 2012 to (17.5%) in. Other Arabs Nationalities share doubled in to account for (17.5%). The share of the visitors from Russia / CIS / Baltics declined significantly from (38%) in 2012 to (9.8%) in. Similarly the share of the Europeans declined from (22%) in 2012 to (8.9%) in. 48
4-5 Banking & Insurance:- The main centers of national commercial banks operating in the country remained unchanged at 23 during the period 2012-. The number of commercial banks branches grew at 3% from (841) in 2013 to (869) in as shown below: Table 4-20:- Number of Commercial Banks UAE 2013 - Commercial Banks 2013 National Banks Main Centers 23 23 23 Branches 841 869 856 GCC Banks Main Centers 6 6 Branches 4 4 Foreign Banks Main Centers 22 20 26 Branches 83 82 86 Source: Central Bank of the UAE Annual Report Figure 4-13 26 20 Commercial Banks Main Centers 22 23 23 23 6 6 Foreign Banks GCC Banks 2013 National Banks Figure 4-14 Commercial Banks Branches 856 869 841 86 82 83 4 4 Foreign Banks GCC Banks 2013 National Banks The number of national commercial banks branches declined from (869) in to (856) in due to cost efficiency considerations. GCC banks main centers and branches remained the same in. Foreign banks main centers grew at an annual rate of 9% and their branches at 2% during the period 2013- The total number of banks in Ajman increased from (29) in 2012 to (30) in 2013. National banks constituted about (93%) of the total commercial banks opening in Ajman in 2013. 49
Table 4-21:- Number of Commercial Banks Ajman 2012-2013 Year 2012 2013 National banks 27 28 Foreign banks 2 2 Total 29 30 Source: Ajman annual statistical book Figure 4-15 Ajman Commercial Bank 27 28 2 2 Foreign banks National banks 2013 2012 - Insurance:- Total written premiums including general and life insurance in UAE grew at an average annual rate of 13% from AED (26.3) billion in 2012 to AED (33.5) billion in as illustrated below:- Table 4-22:- Insurance Type UAE 2012 - Insurance Type 2012 General insurance 20,315,923 Life insurance 5,958,859 Total 26,274,782 Source:-Annual Insurance Report Insurance Authority. 2013 22,473,259 7,030,665 29,503,924 24,888,224 8,645,603 33,533,827 Average Annual Growth in 2012-10.7% 20.5% 13% Figure 4-16 Avarage Annual Growth 2012-10.7% 20.5% Life Insurance General insurance General insurance premium of property and liability increased from AED (20.3) b in 2012 to AED (24.9) b in at an average annual rate of (10.7%). The share of general insurance declined slightly from (77%) of total written premiums in 2012 to (74%) in. Total under written premiums of life insurance and operation of fund formation on the 50