Monitoring fund flows Workshop for Building Community Based Preparedness for and Responses to Natural Disasters, Bangkok Jock McKeon, World Bank Office Indonesia June 11 2008
Banda Aceh port (Malahayati) Photos courtesy of DigitalGlobe
Banda Aceh port Photos courtesy of DigitalGlobe
Banda Aceh port Photos courtesy of DigitalGlobe
Banda Aceh port Photos courtesy of DigitalGlobe
West Coast Photos courtesy of DigitalGlobe
West Coast Photos courtesy of DigitalGlobe
Meulaboh Photos courtesy of DigitalGlobe
Meulaboh Photos courtesy of DigitalGlobe
Questions asked during 2005 January February June September November December commemorations What s the assessment of damages? The NGO phenomenon how much money do they have? Where has the money been allocated? Which sectors are underfunded? Where are the gaps? How much has actually been spent so far? What s the progress after the first year?
The rationale of postdisaster analysis Quantify needs Determine reconstruction priorities Ascertain Government capacity Allocate funds where they are most needed Provide transparency and ability to hold agencies accountable
The money-tracking journey 1. Assess the damages and losses 2. Determine needs 3. Capture commitments and allocations to projects 4. Identify the gaps 5. Monitor progress
Reconstruction monitoring & evaluation methodology Monitoring & Evaluation Tracking the Money Reconstruction Physical Progress Social and Economic Monitoring On Budget APBN APBD Off Budget Donors NGOs # of house constructed # of school built # of health facilities built Agriculture land restored # of boat built Inflation Employment Wages Material Prices Poverty IDPs
The money-tracking journey 1. Assess the damages and losses 2. Determine needs 3. Capture commitments and allocations to projects 4. Identify the gaps 5. Monitor progress
Damage and losses assessment Methodology developed in the Latin America and Caribbean Region, and used since 1972 Adapted for use in other regions of the world Utilized by the World Bank in many major disasters in the Asian region www.eclac.org/mexico/documents www.worldbank.org/hazards/policy/guidelines.htm
Aceh damage and losses Other Infrastructure Bank & Finance Communications Water & Sanitation Energy Community, culture and religion Governance & Admin (incl. Health Education Flood control, irrigation works Agriculture & Livestock Enterprise Fisheries Environment Transport Housing $0 $250 $500 $750 $1,000 $1,250 $1,500 $1,750 US$ millions
The money-tracking journey 1. Assess the damages and losses 2. Determine needs 3. Capture commitments and allocations to projects 4. Identify the gaps 5. Monitor progress
Determining the needs looking ahead Value of Damages Reconstruction needs Reconstruction program Financing Formula = Damages Consider: Consider: + technological improvement + relocation costs + mitigation costs + losses relating to capacity development + inflation estimate Financing needs Priorities for reconstruction ~ sectoral ~ geographical Government funds Private sector funds Insurance reimbursement International grants International loans (diversion existing loans, fresh loans)
Make appropriate adjustments for the needs analysis Inflation (YoY, 2002=100) 45 40 35 30 Tsunami Oil Price 25 20 8,5% 15 10 5 0 5,7% Jan- 04 Mar- 04 May- 04 Jul- 04 Sep- 04 Nov- 04 Jan- 05 Mar- 05 May- 05 Jul- 05 Sep- 05 Nov- 05 Jan- 06 Mar- 06 May- 06 Jul- 06 Sep- 06 Nov- 06 Jan- Mar- 07 07 May- 07 Source : BPS National Banda Aceh Lhokseumaw e
The money-tracking journey 1. Assess the damages and losses 2. Determine needs 3. Capture commitments and allocations to projects 4. Identify the gaps 5. Monitor progress
Tracking systems and methodologies Monitoring System Development Assistance Database (DAD) Aid Management Platform (AMP) Aid Management Information System (AMIS) Council of Development of Cambodia (CDC) ODA Disbursement System Bulgarian Development Cooperation Information System (DCIS) Fiji, Syria, Egypt Cambodia Bulgaria Countries Indonesia, Thailand, Sri Lanka, the Maldives, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Vietnam, Iraq, Lebanon Ethiopia, Bolivia Main focus Reconstruction; general aid managment possible (see Vietnam) Aid management and coordination General aid projects. ODA disbursement. General aid projects Source: Agustina, CD, Tracking the Money: International Experience with Financial Information Systems and Databases for Reconstruction
World Bank expenditure tracking methodology Damage and Losses Assessment NEEDS ASSESSMENT Project Concept Notes OUTPUT Reports Presentations Analytical notes RECONSTRUCTION DATA Cleanse data Remove duplicates Allocate to sectors BRR budget Verify data Conduct analysis Donor projects NGO projects DATA PROCESSING
The money-tracking journey 1. Assess the damages and losses 2. Determine needs 3. Capture commitments and allocations to projects 4. Identify the gaps 5. Monitor progress
600 500 400 300 200 100 0-100 -200 Sectoral allocations gaps against core minimum needs (allocations minus core needs) US$ millions Governance & Admin (incl. Land) Health Community, culture and religion Enterprise Education Water & Sanitation Housing Transport Agriculture & Livestock Communications Fisheries Other Infrastructure Bank & Finance Flood control, irrigation works Energy Environment
500 400 300 200 100 0-100 -200-300 -400 Spending progress to core minimum needs (disbursements minus core needs) US$ millions Health Governance & Admin (incl. Land) Enterprise Community, culture and religion Education Water & Sanitation Agriculture & Livestock Fisheries Bank & Finance Other Infrastructure Communications Energy Environment Flood control, irrigation works Transport Housing
The money-tracking journey 1. Assess the damages and losses 2. Determine needs 3. Capture commitments and allocations to projects 4. Identify the gaps 5. Monitor progress
US$ millions 9,000 Aceh tsunami update (Dec 07): $7.7 bn committed $6.4 bn allocated to projects (83% committed) $4.2 bn disbursed (65% allocated) 8,000 Donors - loans, 400 7,000 6,000 Donor - grants, 2,843 5,000 2,324 4,000 3,000 NGO, 2,297 1,877 1,289 2,000 1,233 1,000 GOI, 2,228 2,228 1,656 0 Commitment Allocated Disbursement
Lessons learned