Introducing Investor presentation Jefferies 10 th Annual Global Industrials Conference August 12, 2014 New York City
Forward-looking statements and non-gaap financial information The information provided today will include forward-looking statements relating to our goals and estimates for future years, including statements about expected sales, operating earnings per share, cash flow, segment margins, our worldwide markets, our anticipated effective income tax rate, and others. These statements should be used with caution and are subject to various risks and uncertainties, many of which are outside the company s control. The following factors could cause actual results to differ, perhaps materially, from those anticipated in the forward-looking statements: unanticipated changes in the markets for the company s business segments; unanticipated downturns in business relationships with customers or their purchases from us; competitive pressures on sales and pricing; increases in the cost of material and other production costs, or unexpected costs that cannot be recouped in product pricing; the introduction of competing technologies; unexpected technical or marketing difficulties; unexpected claims, charges, litigation or dispute resolutions; new laws and governmental regulations; interest rate changes; changes in currency exchange rates; stock market fluctuations; unanticipated deterioration of economic and financial conditions in the United States and around the world; the amount and timing of any dividends and share repurchases; and the risks identified in the company s registration statement on Form 10 filed with the SEC. We do not assume any obligation to update these forward-looking statements. The unaudited pro forma consolidated financial data in this presentation is subject to assumptions and adjustments described in the company s registration statement on Form 10. TimkenSteel Corporation s ( TimkenSteel ) management believes these assumptions and adjustments are reasonable under the circumstances and given the information available at this time. However, these adjustments are subject to change as The Timken Company and TimkenSteel finalize the terms of the spinoff, including the separation and distribution agreement and related transaction agreements. The unaudited pro forma consolidated financial data does not purport to represent what TimkenSteel s financial position and results of operations actually would have been had the spinoff occurred on the dates indicated, or to project TimkenSteel s financial performance for any future period following the spinoff. This presentation includes certain non-gaap financial measures as defined by SEC rules. A reconciliation of those measures to the most directly comparable GAAP equivalent is contained in the appendix. Please see discussion of non-gaap financial measures in the appendix. 2
Today s presenters Chris Holding Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer Shawn Seanor Executive Vice President Energy & Distribution Tina Beskid Director, Investor Relations & Forecast, Planning & Analysis 3
Agenda Business overview Financial overview Spotlight: Energy & Distribution Segment Questions and answers 4
Business overview
TimkenSteel: Key investment highlights A leading manufacturer of high-quality, high-performance engineered steel products and value-added services Industry leading customer service delivering customized engineering and innovative design solutions for the most demanding applications Niche position in attractive Energy, Industrial and Automotive end market sectors Leading industry margins driven by value-added products and competitive operating cost structure Strong capital structure with good liquidity position to drive growth 6
TimkenSteel: At a glance Key facts 2013 sales split by product $1,381 million in 2013 sales $159 million in 2013 Adjusted EBITDA 1 2013 shipments: 919k tons Annual melt capacity of ~2 million tons Headquartered in Canton, Ohio ~3,000 employees Value added solutions (precision machining, supply chain management, cutting and drilling) 21% Seamless mechanical tubing 20% Alloy steel bars (SBQ) 59% 2013 sales split by business segment 2013 sales split by end market 2 Energy & distribution 37% Industrial & mobile 63% Mining 3% Industrial 5% Machinery 4 12% Other 3 12% Passenger car 26% Oil & gas 20% Light truck 22% Source: TimkenSteel 1 See Appendix for Adjusted EBITDA reconciliation 2 Distribution sales were 20% of 2013 sales 3 Other: 2% each of construction, rail, military/defense, heavy and medium truck, agriculture, metals recycling, power generation, marine and aerospace 4 Machinery includes historic intercompany sales to Timken 7
A leading manufacturer of engineered steel products and value-added services 59% Alloy steel bars (SBQ) 20% Seamless mechanical tubing 21% Value-added solutions Machining, honing & drilling Supply chain Components 8
Broad size range strengthens our competitive position Market sector size 3.5mm tons 1.8mm tons 0.8mm tons 0.4mm tons TimkenSteel Nucor - Memphis Steel Dynamics - Pittsboro Republic Steel Gerdau MacSteel Source: TimkenSteel internal estimates as of 12/31/2013 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Bar Diameter (Inches) 6:1 Reduction Machining 9
A leading producer of seamless mechanical tubing 19.4mm annual tons - welded and seamless Line pipe 23% Differentiation Largest domestic capacity OCTG 36% Seamless mechanical 3% Welded mechanical 12% Broadest size range 1.875 to 13.0 Consistency in our application Higher value added niche volume and alloy grade categories Leading producer of quench and tempered capability Stainless 1% Pressure 1% Standard 10% Structural 14% Source: 2013 Preston Pipe and Tube Report Source: TimkenSteel 10
Quality Performance Value Emphasis on high-end value-add products TimkenSteel Applications Bearings Fuel Injectors Gun Barrels Crankshafts Tri-Cone Bits Percussion Bits Energy CRA Production CV Joints Gears HIGH (SBQ) capabilities Non TimkenSteel Applications Fasteners Hand Tools Leaf Springs Shopping Carts Table Legs Reinforcing Bar LOW (Not SBQ) 11
Focused in niche market sectors where we have competitive strength Global finished steel products USA finished steel products China 47% Other Asia 15% EU-28 9% Other Long Products² 26% Our core product lines Special Bar Quality 5% Seamless Mechanical Tubing 1% NAFTA 9% Our home market Others¹ 9% Flat-Rolled 69% Other Europe 3% CIS 4% Japan 4% World: 1,633 mm tons Source: World Steel Association; American Iron and Steel Institute ¹ Others: Middle East 3.2%, Central & South America 3.3%, Africa 2.0%, Australia & New Zealand 0.4% 2 Other Long Products: Light Shapes, Reinforcing Bars, Merchant Bars, Wire, Pipe & Tubing USA: 107 mm tons 12
Labor hrs/ton Highly competitive cost structure Competitive cost structure Labor Productivity Lower cost Electric Arc Furnaces (EAF) mills Sophisticated raw material model Scrap return supply chain established with many customers Raw material, alloy and natural gas price volatility largely passed on to customers through surcharge mechanisms Team driven by continuous improvement in processes and technology Breakeven operating structure at ~50% $45mm - $55mm spent annually on maintenance and continuous improvement capital expenditures 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013 Source: TimkenSteel internal estimates as of 12/31/2013 13
Investing for growth and competitive strength Jumbo Caster ~$200m investment to be commissioned 3Q 2014 125k tons added capacity 10% yield improvement Flexible capacity in all markets Superior cleanness for stand cast products Broader capability to support higher value SBQ and seamless mechanical tube markets Ladle refining station $25m investment commissioned April 2013 Expands capacity for tight chemistry Operating efficiency Steelmaking capacity for 40k additional finish tons Market opportunities In-Line Forge Press $35m investment commissioned April 2013 2% yield improvement 40k ton increase in rolling capacity Achieves required soundness up to 16 bar Entrance to new markets Intermediate Finishing Line (IFL) $50m investment commissioned April 2013 65% cycle time reduction 40% labor productivity Advanced Inspection Technology improves quality assurance Enhanced safety and environmental controls 14
Strategy focused on selected high-end products and high-growth markets BASE BUSINESS: Ability to consistently engineer solutions for challenging applications in niche markets 15
Financial overview
Industry leading margins 4-year average EBITDA margins 12.9% 13.0% 9.1% 8.3% Gerdau Steel Dynamics Nucor 2010 10.6% 16.3% 9.4% 6.5% 2011 14.1% 13.0% 10.0% 10.1% 2012 15.2% 11.0% 8.6% 8.6% 2013 11.5% 11.9% 8.4% 8.1% 4 yr avg. 12.9% 13.0% 9.1% 8.3% Source: Company filings, FactSet Note: TimkenSteel figures represent Adjusted EBITDA margins based on Steel segment EBITDA, adjusted for previously unallocated corporate expenses and incremental standalone costs; see Appendix for reconciliation 17
Adjusted EBIT DA $mm Improved cost structure positions TimkenSteel well through the cycle $350 Adjusted EBITDA 1 Capacity utilization 100% $300 $278 $276 $250 $200 $150 $100 $50 75% 35% 72% $145 85% $262 65% $159 58% 75% 50% Capacity utilization (%) $0 25% ($50) ($39) ($100) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 0% 1 See Appendix for Adjusted EBITDA reconciliation 18
Focused capital allocation priorities Overview Leverage Targeting investment grade financial/credit metrics of 1.5x - 2.0x Debt/EBITDA Maintain leverage with cash generation used to grow and support the business Organic investments Fund maintenance and operational excellence programs from operating cash flows Growth investments that enhance margin improvements (i.e., Caster / Forge Press) Targeted growth investment hurdle rate of approximately 20% IRR Dividends Target dividend payout ratio of 20% - 30% Initial quarterly dividend of $0.14 per share payable on September 4, 2014 External investments Capital allocated to external investments based on best risk-adjusted return 1 Share repurchases to offset dilution due to stock compensation Evaluate additional share repurchases Initially target strategic acquisitions with greater than 20% IRR 1 Subject to Board approval 19
Investments that reinforce capabilities and grow market position Capital expenditure ($mm) Growth Maintenance & continuous improvement Growth Maintenance & continuous improvement Separation related $180 $171 $165-$175 $45 $50 $45-$55 $120-$130 $96 $99 $100-$110 $45-$55 $45-$55 $43 $43 $62 $121 $135 $28 $52 $22 $34 $36 $6 $9 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E Source: TimkenSteel 2015E and 2016E as of May 31, 2014 20
2014 Outlook Outlook & Guidance Revenue growth 2014 expected revenue growth of 20-25% over full-year 2013 2H 2014 shipments comparable to slightly higher 1H 2014 Capex Full year 2014 expected capex of $165-$175 million 2H 2014 expected capex of $100-105 million Standalone costs Expect 2H incremental standalone costs between $20-25 million; consistent with 1H Net income Expect 2H 2014 improvement in manufacturing to partially offset annual shut-down maintenance & caster ramp-up costs for net impact of $2-4 million LIFO expense $14-18 million in 2H 2014 compared to 1H 2014 LIFO expense of $2 million Source: TimkenSteel as of July 31, 2014 21
Energy & Distribution Shawn Seanor Executive Vice President Energy & Distribution
Energy & Distribution segment overview 2013A figures Shipments Sales EBIT EBIT margin Key highlights End markets 331k tons $516mm $67mm 13.0% Overview High-performance on- and off- shore drilling and completion applications Combine high-performance alloy steel manufacturing, unique heat treat and custom boring /finishing capabilities Authorized service centers are valued for delivering differentiated solutions to end users Oil & gas Distribution service centers Work closely with selected distribution channel partners to best reach targeted share participation levels Serve global Energy OEM and service companies for their most critical applications operating in harsh environments Proven history and extension of capabilities Energy offerings are valued and trusted by industry leaders Grow globally our unique and integrated supply chain solution set which combines: Key takeaways High performance materials Unmatched thermal treatment Sales mix Energy 45% Distribution 55% Proprietary machining processes Responsive delivery capabilities AM Castle Metals Ellwood Texas Forge Customers Energy Alloys Reliance Steel & Aluminum National Oilwell Varco-Grant Prideco Marmon Keystone 23
Framework that drives our strategy for value creation Customer focused Providing tailored solutions Uniquely integrated supply chain solutions Brand reputation Operational excellence With a focus on industry leading customers, we provide engineered material solutions and services at the desired performance level, in the timeframe needed 24
Unique and integrated supply chain solution focusing on high value-added products Material Clean steel Alloy engineering Material sizes & configurations Machining long lengths Full line Precision straightening Drilling of solids Tube finishing Machine design Heat treat Quench and temper Tight control Consistent properties Supply chain management Packages high performance material, unmatched thermal treatment, proprietary machining and responsive delivery capabilities 25
Customer value level Providing enhanced capabilities that customers value Advanced Heat Treat Small Quantity Advanced Heat Treat Value Add Single Thermal Treat Value Add Advanced Heat Treat Large Quantity Hot Roll Small Quantity Single Thermal Treat Large Quantity Single Thermal Treat Small Quantity Hot Roll Large Quantity Material and service level Source: TimkenSteel 26
Attractive niche in the Energy segment positions us to capture growth opportunities Global drilling & production equipment $350 billion U.S. drilling & production equipment $200 billion Drilling, completion and production components $9 billion TimkenSteel niche Long product SBQ /SMT share: 24% Value-added share: 16% SBQ and seamless market sector $1.2 billion 27 Source: TimkenSteel as of 12/31/2013
Well-positioned to benefit from positive trends in oil and gas U.S. footage drilled by type (mm) Oil wells Gas wells Dry holes 406 369 386 340 30 28 326 27 306 30 101 105 113 284 23 29 241 29 260 217 24 26 120 190 20 161 182 118 138 118 241 254 263 183 77 94 95 119 79 119 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: Spears and Associates Drilling and Production Outlook from March 2014 U.S. rig count by type Directional Horizontal Vertical 1,879 1,874 1,919 1,762 1,871 1,536 569 552 405 435 954 1,087 499 433 1,074 1,151 1,102 1,255 553 815 453 372 201 222 230 216 224 211 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: Spears and Associates U.S. rig count 1/12 rate of change Horizontal drilling growth continues 66% of total Focus on oil 70% of U.S. footage drilled U.S. rig count forecast: +6% in 2014 Footage drilled forecast: +8% in 2014 Forecast for 2015 footage drilled: +3% 75% 50% 25% 0% (25)% J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: BHI, Spears 28
Demanding applications require our unique product and process capabilities Vertical and horizontal drilling applications Completion and deepwater drilling applications 29
Growth strategy Energy & Distribution Overview Product innovation Continue to advance product and service offerings Grade development Product configuration Leverage investments Advance integrated supply chain model Expand sales of large bar into wellhead segment and distribution channel Market growth Focus on completion and wellhead sub-segments; address needed processing additions Enhance distribution relationship through controlled lead times and targeted participation Expand geographically Adjacency expansion Evaluate opportunities that expand core product and service offerings for oil-tools Explore opportunities for sales in other oil and gas segments 30
Investing for growth and competitive strength Continuous Heat Treat Investment Market Demand Increased drilling depths & footage - deeper, larger bore well designs Strong market outlook Increase in steel intensive horizontal and offshore drilling & completion Investment $40m investment to be commissioned in 2016 50k tons quench temper capacity Process 4-13 bars & tubes Benefits Improved technical capability Expanding presence in high value completion products Grow market share 31
Question & Answer Session
Appendix
Adjusted EBITDA reconciliation Source: TimkenSteel Based on The Timken Company 10-K filings (US$ mm) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Net sales $1,852.0 $714.9 $1,359.5 $1,956.5 $1,728.7 $1,380.9 Reported EBIT $264.0 ($63.4) $146.3 $267.4 $251.8 $140.2 Less: audit / other adjustments 0.0 0.0 (8.7) 0.4 (0.8) 2.3 Adjusted EBIT $264.0 ($63.4) $137.6 $267.8 $251.0 $142.5 D&A $48.5 $45.9 $46.1 $45.8 $49.7 $53.8 Incremental D&A 10.0 9.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 Total D&A $58.5 $54.9 $53.1 $52.8 $56.7 $60.8 EBITDA $322.5 ($8.5) $190.7 $320.6 $307.7 $203.3 Total standalone costs (44.0) (30.8) (46.0) (44.2) (45.5) (44.0) Adjusted EBITDA $278.5 ($39.3) $144.7 $276.4 $262.2 $159.3 % of sales 15.0% (5.5%) 10.6% 14.1% 15.2% 11.5% 34
Adjusted EBITDA reconciliation Source: TimkenSteel Form 10 filing as of 05/15/2014 Based on TimkenSteel Form 10 filings (US$ mm) 2010 2011 2012 2013 Net sales $1,359.5 $1,956.5 $1,728.7 $1,380.9 Segment EBIT Industrial & Mobile $73.1 $114.2 $112.8 $84.0 Energy & Distribution 71.5 162.6 146.1 67.0 Total segment EBIT $144.6 $276.8 $258.9 $151.0 Carve-in corporate costs (20.4) (23.9) (24.3) (23.2) Form 10 reported EBIT $124.2 $252.9 $234.6 $127.8 Incremental standalone costs (32.6) (29.3) (29.1) (29.3) Adjusted EBIT $91.6 $223.6 $205.5 $98.5 D&A $42.9 $42.6 $46.2 $50.0 Incremental D&A 10.2 10.2 10.5 10.8 Total D&A $53.1 $52.8 $56.7 $60.8 Adjusted EBITDA $144.7 $276.4 $262.2 $159.3 % of sales 10.6% 14.1% 15.2% 11.5% 35
Adjusted operating cash flow reconciliation Based on TimkenSteel Form 10 filings (US$ mm) Source: TimkenSteel Form 10 Note: Incremental standalone costs tax-effected at a 35% tax rate 2010 2011 2012 2013 Operating cash flow ($23.6) $135.6 $296.6 $175.1 Incremental standalone costs (21.2) (19.0) (18.9) (19.0) Incremental D&A 10.2 10.2 10.5 10.8 Adjusted operating cash flow ($34.6) $126.8 $288.2 $166.9 36
Adjusted EBIT (1) and Adjusted EBITDA (1) Reconciliation Adjusted EBITDA Reconciliation: (Dollars in millions, except share data) (Unaudited) Summary Income Statement - Quarterly 2014 2013 Second Q2 Q1 First Half Year Q4 Q3 Half Q2 Q1 First Half Net Sales Segment EBIT $ 442.2 $ 389.5 $ 831.7 $ 1,380.9 $ 330.0 $ 350.5 $ 680.5 $ 354.1 $ 346.3 $ 700.4 Industrial & Mobile 20.8 27.0 47.8 84.0 19.6 17.6 37.2 25.3 21.5 46.8 Energy & Distribution 31.2 31.2 62.4 67.0 15.7 16.0 31.7 19.3 16.0 35.3 Total Segment EBIT 52.0 58.2 110.2 151.0 35.3 33.6 68.9 44.6 37.5 82.1 Unallocated Corporate Costs (6.9) (7.4) (14.3) (23.2) (5.2) (6.8) (12.0) (5.9) (5.3) (11.2) Consolidated EBIT 45.1 50.8 95.9 127.8 30.1 26.8 56.9 38.7 32.2 70.9 Incremental standalone costs (5.7) (5.7) (11.4) (29.3) (7.3) (7.3) (14.6) (7.3) (7.4) (14.7) Adjusted EBIT 39.4 45.1 84.5 98.5 22.8 19.5 42.3 31.4 24.8 56.2 Interest expense (0.7) (0.7) (0.2) (0.2) (0.2) Adjusted Income Before Income Taxes 38.7 45.1 83.8 98.3 22.8 19.3 42.1 31.4 24.8 56.2 Adjusted provision for income taxes 13.5 15.8 29.3 34.5 8.0 6.8 14.8 11.0 8.7 19.7 Adjusted Net Income $ 25.2 $ 29.3 $ 54.5 $ 63.8 $ 14.8 $ 12.5 $ 27.3 $ 20.4 $ 16.1 $ 36.5 Average shares outstanding, diluted 46.2 46.2 46.2 46.2 46.2 46.2 46.2 46.2 46.2 46.2 Adjusted diluted earnings per share $ 0.55 $ 0.63 $ 1.18 $ 1.38 $ 0.32 $ 0.27 $ 0.59 $ 0.44 $ 0.35 $ 0.79 D&A 14.0 13.6 27.6 50.0 13.3 12.3 25.6 12.3 12.1 24.4 Incremental D&A 2.7 2.7 5.4 10.8 2.7 2.7 5.4 2.7 2.7 5.4 Total D&A 16.7 16.3 33.0 60.8 16.0 15.0 31.0 15.0 14.8 29.8 Adjusted EBITDA 56.1 61.4 117.5 159.3 38.8 34.5 73.3 46.4 39.6 86.0 % of sales 12.7% 15.8% 14.1% 11.5% 11.8% 9.8% 10.8% 13.1% 11.4% 12.3% 37 (1) Please see discussion of Non-GAAP Financial Measures at end of slides
Industrial & Mobile segment overview 2013A figures Shipments Sales EBIT EBIT margin Key highlights End markets 588k tons $865mm $84mm 9.7% Mobile: Steel most often used in critical automotive applications where high performance is required Industrial: Steel used for a variety of industrial applications where performance is critical Manufacturing flexibility allows production of many grades in small quantities Metal Recycling: Full service scrap metal management company recycling ferrous and non-ferrous metals Automotive Construction Agriculture Machinery Metals recycling 3% Overview Military Mining Power generation Rail Customers recognize us for continued leadership in: Quality Consistency Technical support Key takeaways Trusted, long term, reliable supplier Deep material, application, and process know-how that is a proven source of value creation Efficiently and effectively provide both low and high volume niche market sector needs Robust strategic portfolio management process with growth emphasis on Industrial based applications and value-add needs Sales mix Industrial 33% Mobile 64% Customers HHI Chrysler Ford GM Honda Nexteer Nissan Toyota Ellwood National Crankshaft Timken CAT General Dynamics Brenco AJAX 38
(1) Non-GAAP Financial Measures 39 TimkenSteel reports its financial results in accordance with accounting principles generally accepted in the United States ( GAAP ) and corresponding metrics as non-gaap financial measures. EBIT is defined as operating income plus other income (expense), net. EBIT is an important financial measure used in the management of the business, including decisions concerning the allocation of resources and assessment of performance. Management believes that reporting EBIT is useful to investors as this measure is representative of the company's performance and cash generation. It also is a better reflection of the underlying growth from the ongoing activities of the business and provides improved comparability of results. The consolidated financial statements have been prepared on a stand-alone basis and are derived from the consolidated financial statements and accounting records of TimkenSteel Corporation s former parent company, The Timken Company. TimkenSteel s consolidated financial statements include certain expenses of its former parent which were allocated to it for certain functions, including general corporate expenses related to finance, legal, information technology, human resources, compliance, shared services, insurance, employee benefits and incentives and stock-based compensation. TimkenSteel considers the expense allocation methodology and results to be reasonable for all periods presented. However, these allocations may not be indicative of the actual expenses it would have incurred as an independent public company or of the costs it will incur in the future. Adjusted EBIT and adjusted net income are defined as EBIT and net income reduced for stand-alone costs reflected at a normal run-rate, respectively. Management believes that reporting adjusted EBIT and adjusted net income is useful to investors as these measures are representative of the company's performance and cash generation. It also is a better reflection of the underlying growth from the ongoing activities of the business and provides an indication of the company s performance as an independent public company. See the attached schedules for supplemental financial data and corresponding reconciliations of the non-gaap financial measures referred to above to the most comparable GAAP financial measures for the three and six months ended June 30, 2014 and 2013. Non-GAAP financial measures should be viewed in addition to, and not as an alternative for, TimkenSteel's results prepared in accordance with GAAP. In addition, the non-gaap measures TimkenSteel uses may differ from non-gaap measures used by other companies, and other companies may not define the non-gaap measures TimkenSteel uses in the same way.
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