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National Assembly for Wales Research paper Unemployment Briefing June 2014 Research Service

The National Assembly for Wales is the democratically elected body that represents the interests of Wales and its people, makes laws for Wales and holds the Welsh Government to account. The Research Service provides expert and impartial research and information to support Assembly Members and committees in fulfilling the scrutiny, legislative and representative functions of the National Assembly for Wales. Research Service briefings are compiled for the benefit of Assembly Members and their support staff. Authors are available to discuss the contents of these papers with Members and their staff but cannot advise members of the general public. We welcome comments on our briefings; please post or email to the addresses below. An electronic version of this paper can be found on the National Assembly website at: www.assemblywales.org/research Further hard copies of this paper can be obtained from: Research Service National Assembly for Wales Cardiff Bay CF99 1NA Email: Research.Service@wales.gov.uk Twitter: @SeneddResearch Blog: assemblyinbrief.wordpress.com National Assembly for Wales Commission Copyright 2014 The text of this document may be reproduced free of charge in any format or medium providing that it is reproduced accurately and not used in a misleading or derogatory context. The material must be acknowledged as copyright of the National Assembly for Wales Commission and the title of the document specified. Enquiry no: 14/1622 Paper number: 14/028

National Assembly for Wales Research paper Unemployment Briefing June 2014 Gareth Thomas This briefing paper provides a statistical overview of unemployment trends. Information is included on Assembly constituencies, Wales and UK nations and regions. Research Service

Unemployment Briefing: June 2014 Introduction Unemployment statistics are published each month by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). This paper is released shortly after the ONS data and aims to provide a brief summary of the latest unemployment situation in Wales and the UK. Section 1 contains headline figures and analysis relating to the International Labour Organisation (ILO) and claimant count measures. Additional information is provided in sections 2 to 7. These sections cover comparative information on unemployment rates between genders, age groups, and between Wales and the other UK nations and regions. Additionally, information and analysis on long-term unemployment, and the latest unemployment figures for Assembly Constituencies is provided. The Research Service is able to provide Assembly Members and their staff with more detailed analyses in relation to unemployment and long-term labour market trends on request. If you would like us to do this, please contact Gareth Thomas on 029 2089 8917 or at garethdavid.thomas@wales.gov.uk

1. Headline Figures Table 1.1: Headline unemployment figures (seasonally adjusted) Measure Latest figure Number of ILO unemployed people in Wales (February - April 2014) 97,000 ILO unemployment rate in Wales (February- April 2014) 6.6% Claimant count in Wales (May 2014) 60,100 Claimant count rate in Wales (May 2014) 4.2% Change since previous Year Month/quarter Decrease of 3,000 since last quarter Decrease of 0.1 percentage points since last quarter Decrease of 1,200 since last month Decrease of 0.1 percentage points since last month Decrease of 28,000 Decrease of 1.8 percentage points Decrease of 16,300 Decrease of 1.2 percentage points Source: Office for National Statistics, Regional Labour Market Statistics June 2014 Headline indicators for Wales: Table 1 Summary of LFS headline indicators and Table 7: Claimant Counts and Rates Labour Force Survey and ILO Unemployment In February to April 2014, the male ILO rate was 8.0%, which has decreased from 8.9% since the previous year. The female ILO rate was 5.0%, which has decreased from 7.8% since the previous year. Figure 2.1; At 6.6%, the ILO unemployment rate in Wales was the same as the UK rate in February to April 2014. Figure 3.1 and In January to December 2013, 45,800 people aged 16-24 were ILO unemployed; the ILO rate for 16-24 year olds was 21.3%. Table 6.1 and Figure 6.1. Claimant count In May 2014 18,000 people in Wales had been claiming JSA for over 12 months. This has decreased by 3,200 since the previous May. Of those claiming JSA for over 12 months, 9,500 have been claiming for over 24 months, a decrease of 800 since the previous May. Figure 5.2; The claimant count for the 18-24 age group was 16,465 in May 2014. This has decreased by 1,385 since the previous month and decreased by 5,540 since the previous May. Table 6.2; and The Assembly Constituencies with the highest claimant count rates in May 2014 (based on unofficial estimates) were Blaenau Gwent (7.5%), Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney and Rhondda (both 6.4%). The lowest claimant count rate estimates were in Ceredigion (1.8%) and Brecon and Radnorshire (1.9%). Table 7.2. 1

ILO Unemployment The International Labour Organisation (ILO) definition of unemployment is the primary measure used in the UK and internationally, and UK figures are derived by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) from the Labour Force Survey. In the UK people who are classed as ILO unemployed are those who are without a job, are available to start work in the next two weeks, who have been seeking a job in the last four weeks or are waiting to start a job already obtained. The ILO unemployment rate is the number of ILO unemployed people as a percentage of the economically active population (this includes people who are in employment and those who are defined as ILO unemployed). Claimant Count The claimant count measures people who are claiming Jobseeker s Allowance (JSA). It is lower than the ILO definition, because some unemployed people are either not entitled to claim benefits, or choose not to do so. It is the most up-to-date unemployment measure, particularly for smaller areas. The claimant count rate is calculated in three ways in this paper: For all figures and tables except those for age groups and Assembly Constituencies it has been calculated using the workplace based claimant count rate which is used by the ONS in its Regional Labour Market Statistics publication. This is the number of JSA claimants resident in an area as a percentage of the number of workforce jobs plus JSA claimants in an area. For age groups, claimant count rates are calculated by the ONS as a percentage of the population of the relevant age group. They are not seasonally adjusted, and therefore take no account of factors such as labour market recruitment patterns. They also do not take account of differences in economic activity levels between areas. For Assembly Constituencies, the claimant count rates are calculated unofficially by the Research Service using the same methodology as the House of Commons Library. They are calculated by expressing the number of JSA claimants as a percentage of the economically active population aged between 16 and 64 residing in the constituency. The population figures are estimates based on the 2011 Census. Following publication of data from the 2011 Census this methodology has changed. Therefore the figures in this paper are not comparable with those in previous editions. Further detail can be found in House of Commons Library, Unemployment by constituency: change in methodology 2013. Further changes are expected in future months. Seasonally adjusted and non-seasonally adjusted data Headline ILO unemployment and claimant count data for Wales and the other UK nations and regions is seasonally adjusted by the ONS. This means that it is statistically adjusted to remove seasonal factors such as holidays and labour market recruitment patterns. For example, a large number of people leave full-time education and enter the labour market in the summer. To make it easier to identify labour market trends the ONS seasonally adjusts this data. Other unemployment data such as that for age groups and Assembly Constituencies is not seasonally adjusted by the ONS. 2

% of the workforce % of economically active population aged 16 and over 2. Unemployment rates in Wales This section provides information on unemployment rates in Wales by gender for the two main measures of unemployment. Figure 2.1: ILO unemployment rates for Wales, by gender (seasonally adjusted) 10% 9% 8.9% 8.4% 8.3% 8% 7.8% 8.0% 7.6% 7.9% 7.4% Males 7.2% 8.0% 7% 6.9% Total 6.7% Females 6.2% 6.6% 6% 5% 5.0% 4% Feb - Apr 2013 May - Jul 2013 Aug - Oct 2013 Nov - Jan 2014 Feb - Apr 2014 Source: Office for National Statistics, Regional Labour Market Statistics June 2014 Headline indicators for Wales: Table 1 Summary of LFS headline indicators Figure 2.2: Claimant count rates for Wales, by gender (seasonally adjusted) 8% 7.0% 6.8% 6% 6.4% 5.5% 5.4% 5.1% 5.9% Males 5.6% 5.2% 4% 3.9% 3.8% 3.6% 4.7% 3.3% Total Females 4.5% 3.2% 4.2% 3.1% 2% 0% Source: Office for National Statistics, Claimant Count and Vacancies Series 3

% of the workforce % of economically active population aged 16 and over 3. Unemployment statistics for UK nations This section provides comparative information on unemployment rates in Wales and the UK nations for the two main measures of unemployment. Figure 3.1: ILO unemployment rates for UK nations, seasonally adjusted 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% Feb to Apr 2013 May to Jul 2013 Aug to Oct 2013 Nov to Jan 2014 Feb to Apr 2014 Wales 8.4% 8.0% 7.4% 6.7% 6.6% United Kingdom 7.8% 7.7% 7.4% 7.2% 6.6% England 7.8% 7.7% 7.4% 7.2% 6.6% Scotland 7.1% 7.4% 7.1% 6.9% 6.6% Northern Ireland 7.8% 6.9% 7.5% 7.5% 6.9% Source: Office for National Statistics, Regional Labour Market Statistics June 2014 Summary of headline indicators Table 1 and Stats Wales, ILO Unemployment rates by UK country/english region Figure 3.2: Claimant count rates for UK nations 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% February 2013 March 2013 April 2013 May 2013 June 2013 July 2013 August 2013 September 2013 October 2013 November 2013 December 2013 January 2014 February 2014 March 2014 April 2014 May 2014 Wales 5.5% 5.5% 5.4% 5.4% 5.3% 5.2% 5.1% 4.9% 4.8% 4.7% 4.6% 4.5% 4.5% 4.4% 4.3% 4.2% United Kingdom 4.6% 4.6% 4.5% 4.4% 4.4% 4.3% 4.1% 4.0% 3.9% 3.8% 3.7% 3.6% 3.5% 3.4% 3.3% 3.2% England 4.4% 4.4% 4.3% 4.3% 4.2% 4.1% 4.0% 3.8% 3.7% 3.6% 3.5% 3.4% 3.3% 3.2% 3.1% 3.1% Scotland 5.0% 5.0% 4.9% 4.9% 4.8% 4.7% 4.6% 4.4% 4.3% 4.2% 4.1% 4.0% 3.9% 3.8% 3.7% 3.7% Northern Ireland 7.3% 7.3% 7.2% 7.2% 7.1% 7.0% 7.0% 6.9% 6.9% 6.8% 6.7% 6.6% 6.5% 6.4% 6.3% 6.3% Source: Office for National Statistics, Claimant Count and Vacancies Series 4

% of the workforce % of economically active population aged 16 and over 4. Unemployment rates in UK regions and nations This section provides information on the latest unemployment rates in Wales compared to the UK nations and regions for the two main unemployment measures. Figure 4.1: ILO unemployment rates (February to April 2014) (seasonally adjusted) 11% 10% 9.8% 9% 8.2% 8% 7.5% 7.5% 7.6% 7% 6.6% 6.6% 6.9% 6% 5% 4.8% 4.9% 5.3% 6.1% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% South East South West East of England East Midlands Scotland Wales Northern Ireland London West North West Yorkshire North East Midlands and The Humber Source: Office for National Statistics, Regional Labour Market Statistics June 2014 Summary of headline indicators Table 1 Figure 4.2: Claimant count rates (May 2014) (seasonally adjusted) 7% 6% 5.4% 6.3% 5% 4.2% 4.2% 4.4% 4% 3.7% 3.7% 3% 2.8% 3.1% 2.4% 2% 1.8% 2.0% 1% 0% South East South West East of England London East Midlands Scotland North West Wales West Midlands Yorkshire and the Humber North East Northern Ireland Source: Office for National Statistics, Regional Labour Market Statistics June 2014 Summary of headline indicators Table 2 5

Claimant count Number of ILO unemployed people 5. Long-term unemployment in Wales This section provides analysis of the number of people that are classed as long-term unemployed for both main measures of unemployment. Statistics relating to the duration of unemployment using the ILO measure are published by the Welsh Government. This data is available on a rolling twelve-monthly basis, updated once a quarter. Figure 5.1: ILO unemployment in Wales by duration of unemployment (not seasonally adjusted) 140,000 120,000 118,500 119,300 119,200 118,000 115,900 100,000 80,000 Total ILO unemployed 60,000 40,000 43,700 43,100 41,300 40,200 39,000 ILO unemployed for over 12 months 20,000 0 Jan 2012 - Dec 2012 Apr 2012 - Mar 2013 Jul 2012 - Jun 2013 Oct 2012 - Sep 2013 Jan 2013 - Dec 2013 Source: Stats Wales, Long Term Unemployment by Area and Year The ONS publishes data to show the number of JSA claimants that have been claiming for over 12 and 24 months. The figures for those claiming JSA for over 12 months include those claiming for over 24 months. These figures are not seasonally adjusted, and are for computerised claims as only these claims are analysed by the ONS in terms of duration. For these reasons comparisons cannot be made with the claimant count statistics in the other sections of this paper. Figure 5.2: Claimant count in Wales by duration of computerised claims (not seasonally adjusted) 80,000 70,000 60,000 75,700 71,000 64,100 67,500 59,700 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 21,200 20,900 10,200 10,600 19,700 19,300 18,000 10,100 10,000 9,500 All computerised claims Claiming for over 12 months Claiming for over 24 months 0 Source: Office for National Statistics, Regional Labour Market Statistics June 2014 Headline indicators for Wales: Table 8 Claimant Count by Age and Duration (Computerised claims only) 6

% of economically actove workforce 6. Unemployment by age group This section of the paper gives information on the number and percentage of unemployed people in Wales for the two main measures of unemployment, by age group. The sample based nature of the Labour Force Survey means that ILO unemployment statistics for different age groups and areas within Wales such as Assembly Constituencies are not available on a rolling three-monthly basis. This data is available on a rolling twelve-monthly basis, updated once a quarter. Figure 6.1: ILO unemployment rates by age group (not seasonally adjusted) 25% 23.6% 22.2% 22.3% 22.5% 21.3% 20% 15% 10% 16-24 25-49 50-64 6.4% 6.6% 6.7% 6.3% 6.3% 5% 4.4% 4.7% 4.6% 4.7% 4.5% 0% Jan 2012 - Dec 2012 Apr 2012 - Mar 2013 Jul 2012 - Jun 2013 Oct 2012 - Sep 2013 Jan 2013 - Dec 2013 Source: Office for National Statistics, NOMIS Official Labour Market Statistics Table 6.1: Number of ILO unemployed people by age group (not seasonally adjusted) Age group (years) 16-24 25-49 50-64 Jan 2012 - Dec 2012 50,000 50,700 16,900 Apr 2012 - Mar 2013 47,000 53,500 17,900 Jul 2012 - Jun 2013 46,900 53,700 17,500 Oct 2012 - Sep 2013 48,400 50,700 18,100 Jan 2013 - Dec 2013 45,800 51,800 17,400 Source: Office for National Statistics, NOMIS Official Labour Market Statistics 7

% of the workforce Claimant count rates by age group are calculated by the Office for National Statistics as a percentage of the population, and do not take into account whether people are economically active or not. They are also not seasonally adjusted, and so are not comparable with the claimant count rates in the rest of the paper. Figure 6.2: Claimant count rate by age group (not seasonally adjusted) 9% 8.3% 8% 7% 7.3% 7.1% 6.2% 6.6% 6% 5.5% 5% 4% 3% 2% 4.6% 4.3% 3.9% 2.2% 2.1% 2.0% 3.6% 3.8% 3.4% 1.8% 1.9% 1.8% 18-24 25-49 50+ 1% 0% Source: Office for National Statistics, NOMIS Official Labour Market Statistics: Labour Market Profile Wales Table 6.2: Number of people claiming Jobseekers Allowance, by age group (not seasonally adjusted) 18-24 25-49 50+ February 2013 25,020 44,865 12,720 March 2013 24,290 43,815 12,530 April 2013 23,050 42,685 12,410 May 2013 22,005 41,505 12,120 June 2013 20,875 39,665 11,770 July 2013 21,070 38,785 11,580 August 2013 21,235 38,150 11,575 September 2013 20,575 36,475 11,045 October 2013 19,630 35,305 10,790 November 2013 18,655 34,615 10,750 December 2013 18,115 34,530 10,745 January 2014 19,305 36,540 11,520 February 2014 19,710 36,285 11,485 March 2014 18,890 35,150 11,115 April 2014 17,850 33,955 10,970 May 2014 16,465 32,565 10,580 Source: Office for National Statistics, NOMIS Official Labour Market Statistics: Labour Market Profile Wales 8

7: Unemployment statistics for Assembly Constituencies Map 7.1: ILO unemployment rates by Assembly constituency (January to December 2013) 1 1 Latest available data (not seasonally adjusted). The rate is the number of ILO unemployed persons as a percentage of the economically active population aged 16 and over. 9

Map 7.2: Unofficial claimant count rates by Assembly Constituency, May 2014 2 2 Source: Research Service. Claimants of Job Seekers Allowance as a percentage of the economically active population aged between 16 and 64. See page 4 for details. 10

The tables in this section of the paper show the latest figures for the number and percentage of unemployed people in Assembly Constituencies for the two main measures of unemployment, and also the ranking of each Constituency s unemployment rate. Table 7.1: ILO unemployment numbers, rates and rank by Assembly Constituency, January December 2013 (not seasonally adjusted) (a) ILO unemployment rate Constituency rank for ILO unemployment rate Number ILO Constituency unemployed Aberavon 3,337 10.8 7 Aberconwy 937 4.0 37 Alyn and Deeside 2,861 6.7 26 Arfon 1,969 6.9 24 Blaenau Gwent 4,790 15.3 2 Brecon and Radnorshire 807 2.5 39 Bridgend 2,743 6.8 25 Caerphilly 3,294 7.6 18 Cardiff Central 4,482 11.7 6 Cardiff North 5,168 10.2 9 Cardiff South and Penarth 4,135 7.4 20 Cardiff West 4,119 7.1 22 Carmarthen East and Dinefwr 2,614 7.8 17 Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire 1,669 5.1 33 Ceredigion 851 2.5 39 Clwyd South 2,395 6.3 28 Clwyd West 1,491 4.3 36 Cynon Valley 3,770 12.3 4 Delyn 1,994 5.9 30 Dwyfor Meirionnydd 1,414 5.0 34 Gower 1,645 4.9 35 Islwyn 1,986 5.5 32 Llanelli 3,083 8.2 16 Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney 3,804 12.1 5 Monmouth 2,461 6.1 29 Montgomeryshire 1,199 3.6 38 Neath 2,454 7.3 21 Newport East 3,187 8.9 12 Newport West 2,615 6.5 27 Ogmore 2,381 7.0 23 Pontypridd 3,689 8.8 13 Preseli Pembrokeshire 2,699 7.5 19 Rhondda 5,061 15.4 1 Swansea East 3,730 9.2 11 Swansea West 4,726 12.8 3 Torfaen 3,998 10.4 8 Vale of Clwyd 2,885 8.7 14 Vale of Glamorgan 4,700 9.7 10 Wrexham 2,083 5.8 31 Ynys Mon 2,748 8.5 15 Source: Office for National Statistics, Regional Labour Market Statistics April 2014: Table LI02 Local Indicators for Parliamentary Constituencies Note: (a) The Assembly Constituency with the highest ILO unemployment rate is ranked as 1, and the Assembly Constituency with the lowest ILO unemployment rate is ranked as 40. 11

Table 7.2: Claimant count and unofficial residence-based claimant count rates and rank by Assembly Constituency, April 2014 (not seasonally adjusted) (a), (b) Constituency Claimant count Claimant count rate Constituency rank for claimant count rate Aberavon 1,347 4.5 17 Aberconwy 909 3.5 26 Alyn and Deeside (c) 1,135 2.7 33 Arfon 1,206 4.3 19 Blaenau Gwent 2,379 7.5 1 Brecon and Radnorshire 612 1.9 39 Bridgend 1,309 3.5 27 Caerphilly 2,195 5.4 9 Cardiff Central 2,228 5.2 10 Cardiff North 1,138 2.6 34 Cardiff South and Penarth 2,894 5.4 8 Cardiff West 2,531 5.7 7 Carmarthen East and Dinefwr 899 2.8 32 Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire 1,150 3.3 28 Ceredigion 601 1.8 40 Clwyd South 1,341 3.8 22 Clwyd West 1,217 3.7 25 Cynon Valley 1,751 5.7 6 Delyn 1,090 3.2 31 Dwyfor Meirionnydd 599 2.2 37 Gower 811 2.2 36 Islwyn 1,825 5.1 11 Llanelli 1,374 3.8 23 Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney 2,211 6.4 2 Monmouth 881 2.3 35 Montgomeryshire 627 2.0 38 Neath 1,345 4.0 21 Newport East 2,199 5.9 5 Newport West 2,447 6.0 4 Ogmore 1,433 4.1 20 Pontypridd 1,265 3.2 29 Preseli Pembrokeshire 1,137 3.2 30 Rhondda 1,906 6.4 3 Swansea East 1,911 5.1 12 Swansea West 1,719 4.9 14 Torfaen 1,931 5.0 13 Vale of Clwyd 1,438 4.6 16 Vale of Glamorgan 1,757 3.7 24 Wrexham 1,521 4.3 18 Ynys Mon 1,495 4.7 15 Source: Research Service and Office for National Statistics, Regional Labour Market Statistics June 2014: Table JSA02 Claimant count for Parliamentary Constituencies 12

Note: (a) Claimants of Jobseekers Allowance as a percentage of the economically active population aged 16 to 64. See page 4 for details. For Assembly Constituencies, the claimant count rates are calculated unofficially by the Research Service using the same methodology as the House of Commons Library. They are calculated by expressing the number of JSA claimants as a percentage of the economically active population aged between 16 and 64 residing in the constituency. The population figures are estimates based on the 2011 Census. Following publication of data from the 2011 Census this methodology has changed. Therefore the figures in this paper are not comparable with those in previous editions. Further detail can be found in House of Commons Library, Unemployment by constituency: change in methodology 2013. (b) The Assembly Constituency with the highest claimant count rate is ranked as 1, and the Assembly Constituency with the lowest claimant count rate is ranked as 40. (c) Universal Credit has been introduced from 7 April 2014 for some jobseekers at Shotton Jobcentre Plus Office in Alyn and Deeside constituency. These new claimants are not yet included in the figures for the claimant count. 13

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