Apr-16 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-1 Apr-1 Jul-1 Oct-1 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Central Bank of Egypt Headline and Core Inflation April 218 Annual headline 1/ (urban) inflation continued to decline, recording 13.1 percent in April 218 compared to 13.3 percent in March 218, after peaking in July 217 at 33. percent. Core 2/ inflation remained unchanged in April 218 at 11.6 percent, after peaking in July 217 at 35.3 percent. The headline and core annual rates thereby registered the lowest since May and April 216, respectively. The recent annual headline inflation data release remains consistent with achieving the CBE s inflation target of 13% (±3%) on average during 218 Q. Monthly headline inflation in April 218 registered 1.5 percent, compared to 1. percent in March 218. The relatively higher monthly inflation rate is in line with seasonal patterns witnessed historically. Headline and Core CPI Inflation 3// (m/m, in percent) 6 5 Headline CPI Core CPI 3 2 1-1 -2 Headline and Core CPI Inflation 3// (y/y, in percent) 36 32 28 2 2 16 12 8 CPI - All Items (1%) CPI excl. regulated items, fruits & vegetables (7.3%) Source: Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics and Central Bank of Egypt. Source: Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics and Central Bank of Egypt. 1/ Published by the Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics. 2/ Computed by the Central Bank of Egypt. 3/ CAPMAS publishes three CPI series: (1) the CPI for urban areas which include Cairo, Alexandria, urban Lower Egypt, urban Upper Egypt, Canal cities and Frontier governorates, (2) the CPI for rural areas, and (3) the CPI for All areas. Numbers quoted in this note refer to CPI-Urban. / It is important to underscore that the monthly percentage changes of both headline and core CPI between September 29 and July 21 do not match rates of changes presented in previous inflation notes given the replacement of the 8 th CPI series by the 9th series starting from August 29 (Full details are discussed in the Technical Appendix of the August 21 Inflation Note). 1
Central Bank of Egypt Monthly headline inflation was largely driven by higher food prices for the third consecutive month as well as by higher clothing prices by a lesser extent, affected by seasonal factors. Higher food prices was mainly driven by fresh vegetables, mainly tomatoes, as well as by core food items, mainly poultry. Regulated items and services contributed marginally to monthly headline inflation. Given price increases of core food and clothing prices, monthly core inflation recorded 1.1 percent in April 218, compared to.7 percent in March 218. 2
Apr-16 Apr-16 Apr-16 Central Bank of Egypt Key Highlights: Prices of fresh vegetables increased by 6.6 percent, while prices of fresh fruits declined slightly by.16 percent. They contributed together by.73 percentage points to monthly headline inflation. Poultry prices increased by 8.9 percent to contribute by.35 percentage points to monthly headline inflation. This increase occurred for the third consecutive month, following price declines for eight consecutive months. Rice prices increased by 1.7 percent to contribute by.5 percentage points to monthly headline inflation. Contributions to Monthly Headline CPI Inflation 5.5.5 3.5 2.5 1.5.5 -.5-1.5 Contributions to Annual Headline CPI Inflation 36 32 28 2 2 16 12 8 Fruits & Vegetables Regulated Items Core CPI Fruits & Vegetables Regulated Items Core CPI Fish and seafood prices increased by 1.2 percent to contribute by. percentage points to monthly headline inflation. Red meat prices increased by.29 percent to contribute by.2 percentage points to monthly headline inflation. This comes after being largely stable over the last seven months. Prices of other core food items varied. While prices of pasta, bakery products, dried fruits, Contributions to Monthly Core CPI Inflation 6 5 3 2 1-1 Other Services Paid Services Retail Prices Poultry & Red Meat Food Prices excl. Poultry & Red Meat 3
Apr-16 Central Bank of Egypt sugar, olive oil, tea and mineral water rose, prices of cheese, flour, wheat, fat and pulses declined. These items contributed together by.3 percentage points to monthly headline inflation rate. Prices of retail items increased by 1.99 percent, mainly due to clothing and footwear prices, as well as personal vehicle prices, to contribute by.22 percentage points to monthly headline inflation. Contributions to Annual Core CPI Inflation 36 32 28 2 2 16 12 8 Other Services Paid Services Retail Prices Poultry & Red Meat Prices Food Prices excl. Poultry and Red Meat Prices of services increased by.21 percent due to higher prices of cafés and restaurants, to contribute by. percentage points to monthly headline inflation. Monthly core inflation was affected by price increases of the aforementioned core food items, which contributed by.73 percentage points to monthly core inflation. Meanwhile, prices of retail items contributed by.33 percentage points to monthly core inflation, and prices of services contributed marginally by.6 percentage points.
Central Bank of Egypt Table 1. Classification of All Items included in Core CPI Food Retail Paid Services Other Services Bread and cereals Clothing Tailors, laundry & shoe repair Rentals (new law) Meat Fabrics Dwelling maintenance services Rental value of owner occupied housing Fish and other seafood Footwear Portman & gardener's services Hospital services Eggs & Dairy products Products related to dwelling repairement Cook & maid's services Transportation Services Oils and fats Furniture Technicians to HH appliances Mobile & internet services Dried fruits Carpets and other floor covering Repairs of Audio-visual equipment Recreational & sporting services Processed vegetables Household (HH) textiles Physicians Cultural services Pulses HH appliances Mechanics Hajj & Omra trips Sugar and confectionery Glassware, tableware and HH utensils Teachers Restaurants and Cafes Other food products HH small tools & supplies Hairdressers Accommodation services Beverages HH cleaning products Private schools HH miscellaneous products Purchase of vehicles Spare parts Motor oil Telephone & telefax equipment Home entertainment equipment Recreational equipment Personal care supplies and products Personal effects Books School supplies Medical care goods 5
Central Bank of Egypt Table 2. Consumer Price Index and Major Components 1/ Weight in basket 2/ April 217 April 218 April 218 to March 218 April 218 to April 217 (in percent) Headline - All items 1. 23. 265.16 1.52 13.12 Food and beverages 39.92 37.86 31.9 2.3 11.6 Tobacco and related products 2.19 29.7 518.36. 2.7 Clothing and footwear 5.1 156.93 199.79.61 27.31 Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels 18.37 1.89 155.8 -. 1.58 Furnishings, household equipment and routine maintenance of the dwelling 3.77 21.31 22.71.56 11.62 Medical care 6.33 19.31 28.95 -.5 7.53 Transportation 5.68 181.39 26.31.39 13.7 Communications 3.12 98.59 19.2. 1.98 Recreation and Culture 2.3 219.19 36.31.76 39.75 Education.63 26. 29.16. 19.58 Hotels, cafes and restaurants.3 266.71 295.1.7 1.76 Miscellaneous goods and services 3.73 159.5 186.7.1 16.66 Selective aggregates Fruits & vegetables 3/ 6.9 81.6 58.7 5.32 13.8 Regulated items 18.66 28.83 28.7.8 18.79 Food excl. fruits & vegetables 31.8 282.1 31.91 1.38 1.25 Retail items 1.8 18.25 27.3 1.99 15.1 Paid services 5.87 215. 255.98.18 19. Other services 23. 155.67 171.5.22 9.88 Core CPI 7.3 217.9 23.21 1.12 11.62 1/ Source: CAPMAS and CBE calculations 2/ Based on 28/29 Household Expenditure Survey 3/ Excluding pulses, processed vegetables and dried fruits (index) (January 21 = 1) (percentage change) 6