Table 1: Portfolio Allocations Across Latin American AFPs in 2000, 2009, and 2014 Country Corporate Securities Public Sector Debt Foreign Investments Financial Sector Debt 2000 2009 2014 2000 2009 2014 2000 2009 2014 2000 2009 2014 Argentina 15.1 56.0 4.5 24.1 Bolivia* 3.7 11.4 11.2 69.5 63.0 35.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 23.2 22.0 51.4 Chile 17.6 25.0 15.7 35.7 9.7 21.4 10.9 43.9 43.6 35.6 18.9 17.0 Colombia 14.5 37.9 23.1 47.4 42.0 36.3 0.0 11.7 25.5 28.5 5.1 8.1 Costa Rica 7.7 6.0 59.7 71.8 3.6 4.1 21.8 14.7 Dominican Republic 6.0 1.5 40.0 66.4 0.0 0.0 54.0 32.0 El Salvador 3.4 3.5 9.3 71.3 78.9 80.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 25.3 17.2 5.6 Mexico 5.6 21.5 21.4 92.6 68.9 49.4 0.0 6.7 16.3 1.7 2.9 3.8 Peru 44.1 42.8 22.7 9.0 19.6 17.5 6.7 21.0 29.4 40.0 8.7 11.0 Uruguay 6.8 5.8 9.1 61.4 57.0 66.7 0.0 3.3 10.6 27.1 31.6 3.4 Source: ASOCIACIÓN INTERNACIONAL DE ORGANISMOS DE SUPERVISIÓN DE FONDOS DE PENSIONES *2009 and 2014 Bolivian data from Federacion Internacional de Adminstradoras de Fondos de Pensioniones (FIAP).
Model # 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 coef./se coef./se coef./se coef./se coef./se coef./se coef./se coef./se coef./se FDC contributor -0.066-0.061 0.006 0.009-0.067-0.1-0.032-0.045-0.062 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.03 0.1 0.1 0.09 0.09 0.08 income 0.034*** 0.033*** 0.029*** 0.032*** 0.034*** 0.034*** 0.029*** 0.032*** 0.034*** 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 public sector employee -0.129* -0.117** -0.155*** -0.150*** -0.121* -0.107** -0.160*** -0.151*** -0.121* 0.08 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.07 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.07 private sector employee -0.048 - -0.031-5 -0.046-0.007-0.033-6 -0.046 0.03 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.03 0.04 0.03 private sector employer 0.147 0.179* 0.174 0.175** 0.167 0.195* 0.167 0.175 0.167 0.12 0.11 0.11 0.09 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 informal sector worker 0.046 0.028-0.003-0.024 0.007-5 - 0.024 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.04 volunteer 0.387*** 0.335** 0.289* 0.278 0.372** 0.326** 0.294* 0.278 0.372** 0.15 0.14 0.15 0.2 0.15 0.15 0.16 0.15 0.15 rural 0.056-0.004 0.069 0.038 0.08 9 0.084 0.037 0.08 0.08 0.06 0.06 0.03 0.07 0.06 0.06 0.05 0.07 single 0.008-0.002 0.02 0.024 0.008-0.004 0.021 0.024 0.008 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.03 0.04 education 0.007 0.007 0* 0.009*** 0.005 0.006 0** 0.009 0.005 0.00 0.00 male -0.005-7 -0.028-0.037* -0.002-5 -0.032-0.037-0.003 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.04 age -0.005*** -0.003** -0.002** -0.002** -0.005*** -0.003** -0.002* -0.002-0.005*** 0.00 inflation -0.040* -0.034* 0.02 0.02 unemployment rate -9-0.020* GDP per capita growth -0.597-1.467 1.72 1.04 (Log) GDP per capita -0.279-0.311 0.22 0.21 public debt allocation 0.006*** 0.006*** 0 0.00 foreign investment allocation 0.007* 0.003 0 0.00 FDC contribution rate -2.310*** -1.652*** 0.56 0.39 corporate security allocation 0.005 0.005*** 0.007** 0.005 FDC contributor x corporate securities allocation Table 2: Effect of Pension Participation on Individuals' Attitudes Toward Neo-Liberalism (LAPOP Data) 0.00 0.002 0.003 0.003 Constant -5.711*** -3.055* -5.685*** -5.825*** -5.789*** -2.873* -5.958*** -5.824*** -5.790*** 0.13 1.73 0.13 0.05 0.17 1.66 0.2 0.1 0.16 Country FE N N N Y N N N Y N r2 7 0.044 0.054 0.062 0.022 0.049 0.057 0.062 0.022 N 10471 10471 10471 10471 10471 10471 10471 10471 10471
Table 3: Effect of Pension Participation, Pension Returns on Individuals' Attitudes Toward Neo- Liberalism (LAPOP Data) Model # 1 2 3 4 coef./se coef./se coef./se coef./se FDC contributor -0.222** -0.278*** -0.177** -0.196** 0.09 0.09 0.07 0.07 Pension Returns -0.004 0.002-0.005 0.00 FDC contributor x Pension Returns 0.008* 1*** 0.009*** 1** Income 0.035*** 0.033*** 0.031*** 0.032*** Public sector employee -0.125* -0.112** -0.147*** -0.148*** 0.07 0.05 0.04 0.04 private sector employee -0.046-3 -0.028-6 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 Private sector employer 0.144 0.184* 0.178 0.177 0.12 0.11 0.11 0.11 Informal sector worker 0.050 0.021-0.001-1 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 Volunteer 0.385** 0.334** 0.282* 0.276 0.15 0.14 0.15 0.15 Rural 0.043 0.005 0.058 0.036 0.09 0.07 0.06 0.05 Single 0.009-0.005 0.021 0.024 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.03 Education 0.008 0.008 0* 0.009 0.00 Male -0.006-3 -0.028-0.035 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.02 Age -0.004*** -0.003** -0.002* -0.002 Inflation -0.020 Unemployment Rate -0.039* 0.02 GDP per capita growth -1.598 1.76 (Log) GDP per capita -0.314 0.21 Public debt allocation 0.005* 0.00 Foreign investment allocation 0.008* 0.00 FDC contribution rate -2.434*** 0.60 Constant -5.662*** -2.766-5.540*** -5.831*** 0.15 1.70 0.16 0.10 Country FE N N N Y r2 8 0.045 0.056 3 N 10471 10471 10471 10471
Table 4: Effect of Pension Participation on Individuals' Attitudes Toward Neo-Liberalism, by country and arranged by 2009 pension returns (LAPOP data) Country El Salvador Dominican Costa Rica Mexico Chile Colombia Peru Uruguay Republic 2009 Pension Return 5.6 7.8 9.2 10.2 22.5 26.8 30 32.9 coef./se coef./se coef./se coef./se coef./se coef./se coef./se coef./se FDC contributor -0.129 7-0.114-0.036-0.064 0.179* 0.130 0.145* 0.09 0.10 0.10 0.12 0.07 0.10 0.12 0.08 Income 7 8 0.034* 0.020 0.039*** 0.040** 0.035* 0.040*** 0.02 0.02 0.02 Public sector employee -0.027-0.075-0.255* -0.293** 0.082-0.142-0.145-0.221** 0.13 0.11 0.15 0.13 0.12 0.14 0.13 0.09 Private sector employee 0.032 0.036-0.080-0.152* -0.032 0.091-0.144 0.141** 0.09 0.08 0.11 0.09 0.07 0.08 0.11 0.07 Private sector employer 0.363-0.026 0.291-0.118 0.164 0.840*** -0.084 0.029 0.23 0.22 0.23 0.26 0.27 0.24 0.41 0.19 Informal sector worker 0.032-0.131* -0.036-0.060 0.009 0.071-0.047 0.023 0.07 0.08 0.11 0.08 0.07 0.07 0.08 0.08 Volunteer 0.098 0.813* -0.130 0.461 0.337 0.247 0.216 0.42 0.43 0.42 0.66 0.67 0.48 0.93 Rural 0.078 0.047 0.045-0.220*** -0.061 0.223*** -0.025 0.06 0.06 0.08 0.07 0.07 0.08 0.09 Single 0.002 0.089-0.103-0.009 0.034 0.144** -0.047 0.080 0.06 0.07 0.09 0.07 0.06 0.06 0.08 0.07 Education 0.007-1 8* 0.021** 4* -0.001-0.009 0.040*** Male -0.033-0.073-0.029-0 0.076-0.039-0.104-3 0.05 0.06 0.09 0.06 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.05 Age 0.003* -0.006*** -0.007** -0.003-0.000-0.004* 0.001 0.001 Constant -5.730*** -5.428*** -5.824*** -5.514*** -6.337*** -5.680*** -5.438*** -6.593*** 0.12 0.13 0.17 0.15 0.14 0.13 0.18 0.12 r2 0.008 0.024 0.025 0.027 0.029 0.04 3 0.076 N 1436 1231 1078 1296 1591 1241 1311 1287
Table 5: Effect of Pension Participation, Pension Returns on Individually Held Attitudes Toward Neo-Liberalism, Robustness Checks (LAPOP Data) 1 2 3 4 5 6 coef./se coef./se coef./se coef./se coef./se coef./se FDC contributor -0.280*** -0.178** -0.177*** -0.224-0.081** -0.076 0.05 0.07 0.07 0.19 0.04 0.06 Pension Returns -0.007-2** -0.004-1*** FDC contributor x pension returns 0.009*** 0.009*** 0** 1** Unemployment Rate -0.028*** FDC contributor x unemployment 5** Inflation 0.059*** 0.02 FDC contributor x inflation 0.008 GDP per capita growth -0.812 FDC contributor x GDP per capita growth -0.094 Mandatory Participation -0.282** FDC contributor x Mandatory Participation 2 two year average return -8** FDC contributor x two year average return 0.025*** three year average return -0.001 FDC contributor x three year average return 0.023* income 0.029*** 0.031*** 0.031*** 0.033*** 0.028*** 0.029*** 1.91 2.07 0.12 0.14 0.02 0.00 0.00 public sector employee -0.151*** -0.152*** -0.147*** -0.140*** -0.155*** -0.157*** 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04
private sector employee -0.024-0.03-0.028-8 -0.028-0.033 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 private sector employer 0.185* 0.171 0.176 0.173 0.181* 0.177 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 informal sector worker 0.002 - -0.003-3 0.003-0.003 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 volunteer 0.268* 0.272* 0.283* 0.292* 0.281* 0.292* 0.15 0.16 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 rural 0.026 0.073 0.064 0.058 0.043 0.07 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 single 0.024 0.029 0.022 8 0.021 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 education 0.008 0** 0* 0** 0.008 0.009* 0.00 male -0.029-0.033-0.028-0.032-0.027-0.027 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 age -0.002* -0.002-0.002* -0.002-0.003** -0.002** 0.00 0.00 public debt allocation -0.001 0.007*** 0.004 0.006*** 0.003* 0.006*** 0.00 0.00 foreign investment allocation 0.001 7*** 0.006 0.008*** 0.005 0.007** 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 FDC contribution rate -2.547*** -4.139*** -2.438*** -1.737*** -2.494*** -2.262** 0.37 0.68 0.59 0.35 0.45 0.89 Constant -4.918*** -5.546*** -5.501*** -5.469*** -5.426*** -5.695*** 0.24 0.13 0.17 0.09 0.13 0.24 r2 0.059 0.059 0.056 0.06 0.056 0.054 N 10471 10471 10471 10471 10471 10471
Table 6: Effect of Pension Participation, Pension Returns on Individuals' Attitudes Toward Neo-Liberalism (LAPOP Data) Model # 1 2 3 4 5 6 DV The State should take a greater role in pensions healthcare wellbeing firm ownership jobs inequality coef./se coef./se coef./se coef./se coef./se coef./se FDC contributor -0.260** -0.195* -0.259*** -0.087-0.119-0.124 0.10 0.10 0.09 0.12 0.11 0.08 Pension Returns -0.006 0.000-4** -0.004-0.003-0.006 FDC contributor X real pension returns 0** 0* 2** 2** 0.006 0.004 0.00 0.00 Income 0.029*** 6** 0.031*** 0.042*** 0.066*** 0.041*** Public sector employee -0.066** -0.160*** -0.104* -0.181* -0.150*** -0.159*** 0.03 0.04 0.06 0.10 0.06 0.04 Private sector employee -3-9 -0.029-0.050-0.021-0.007 0.05 0.03 0.03 0.09 0.04 0.06 Private sector employer 0.212 0.020 0.122 0.552*** 0.213* 0.054 0.14 0.10 0.09 0.18 0.11 0.16 Informal sector worker -0.024-0.024 0.002 0.052 0.003 1 0.04 0.02 0.02 0.08 0.04 0.03 Volunteer 0.405*** 0.232 0.424* 0.248 0.384** 0.419 0.04 0.18 0.24 0.45 0.17 0.28 Rural 0.110 0.091 0.092-0.085 0.122* 0.103* 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.07 0.07 0.06 Single 2 0.056* 0.031-0.035 0.032 0.028 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.06 0.03 0.02 Education 0.002 0.004 0.006 0.041*** 0.023** -0.005 Male 0.006-0.037-0.078** -0.028 4-0.023 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.02 0.03 Age -0.006*** -0.003-0.004*** 0.003 0.001-0.001 0.00 0.00 Public sector debt allocation 0.001-0.001 0.005 2*** 0.006*** 0.002 0.00 0.00 Foreign investment allocation 0.008 0.002 7*** 0.001 2*** 0.006 0.00 0.00 FDC contribution rate -2.686*** -1.535** -3.448*** -1.784*** -1.839*** -2.592*** 0.79 0.74 0.74 0.56 0.62 0.70 Constant -5.474*** -5.880*** -5.253*** -5.225*** -6.566*** -5.622*** 0.22 0.18 0.17 0.15 0.19 0.22 r2 0.041 0.020 0.044 0.037 0.036 0.030 N 10881 10992 10918 10732 10974 10919
Table7: Effect of Pension Participation Rates, Pension Returns on Belief in Markets as "Being Best For Country" 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 coef./se coef./se coef./se coef./se coef./se coef./se coef./se coef./se coef./se coef./se coef./se coef./se FDC contribution rate -7-1 0.646 1.746 0.406 0.278 0.383 1.462-0.458* -0.328 0.250 0.685 0.29 0.46 0.53 1.96 0.55 0.68 0.80 2.72 0.28 0.38 0.29 1.48 GDP per capita growth -0.134-0.371-0.077 1.04 1.07 0.74 Unemployment -0.008-4 -0.001 Inflation -0.003-0.001-0.002 0.00 (Log) GDP per capita -9-0.023-0.033 Foreign investment allocation 0.07 0.08 0.06-0** -2** -2*** 0.00 0.00 public debt allocation -0.003* -0.002-0.003 0.00 0.00 0.00 Mandatory participation -0.035-0.089-0.053 0.15 0.20 0.14 corporate securites allocation 0.005 0.004-0.003 0.002 FDC contribution rate x corporate securites allocation 0.00 0.00-0.021-3 0.039 0.026 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.06 Pension returns -0** -0** -0.009* -0.009** FDC contribution rate x pension returns 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.057*** 0.049*** 0.068*** 0.060** 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 Constant -12.314-8.342-23.569** 8.822-8.985-4.196-21.723* 17.584-11.391-15.082-22.277* 7.060 12.24 13.68 11.88 12.52 10.80 12.51 12.22 9.63 14.45 17.74 12.39 10.36 Country Fixed Effects N N N Y N N N Y N N N Y r2 9 0.073 0.173 0.408 0.055 0.091 0.149 0.425 0.110 0.168 0.239 0.477 N 41 40 41 41 41 40 40 41 41 40 41 41
Table 8: Effect of Pension Participation Rates, Pension Returns on National Popularity of Markets, Robustness Checks 1 2 3 4 5 6 coef./se coef./se coef./se coef./se coef./se coef./se FDC contribution rate 0.874 1.094* 0.531*** -1.608 0.465* 1.298** 0.74 0.64 0.17 1.50 0.25 0.59 Pension returns -0.008* -0.009-0.009** -0.008* 0.00 0.00 0.00 FDC contribution rate x pension returns 0.061*** 0.058** 0.046** 0.063*** 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 Foreign investment allocation -0*** -2** -0*** -0** -0.008* -0.006 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Public debt allocation -0.003-0.002-0.002-0.001-0.003** -0.003 0.00 0.00 Mandatory Participation -0.129-0.117-0.112-0.306-0.057-0.081 0.15 0.12 0.11 0.29 0.12 0.17 Unemployment -0.005 0.02 FDC contribution rate x unemployment -0.079 0.13 Inflation 0.004 FDC contribution rate x inflation -0.098 0.06 GDP per capita growth 1.491 1.52 FDC contribution rate x GDP pre capita growth rate -9.480 6.87 FDC contribution rate x Mandatory Participation 2.142 1.77 Two year average return -0.007 FDC contribution rate x two year average return -0.006 0.06 Three year average return 0.006 FDC contribution rate x three year average return -0.138** 0.07 Constant -15.301-20.469-25.824* -20.131* -31.513*** -30.055** 14.27 13.82 14.25 11.69 10.08 13.50 r2 0.340 0.327 0.339 0.291 0.288 0.355 N 41 41 40 41 36 33
Appendix Table 1: Rotated Facor Loadings of LAPOP deerived dependent variables The State should take a greater role in factor 1 factor 2 uniqueness pensions 0.7347 0.1746 0.4298 healthcare 0.7268 0.1611 0.4459 wellbeing 0.5183 0.4351 0.5421 firm ownership 0.174 0.3475 0.849 jobs 0.5891 0.3885 0.5021 inequality 0.6032 0.2712 0.5626
Figure 1: of Pension Participation on Attitudes Towards Neoliberalism -.2 -.1 0.1.2.3 0.05.1.15.2.25
Figure 2: of Pension Participation on Attitude Towards Limiting Government's Role in... pensions healthcare well being -.4 -.2 0.2 0.05.1.15.2 -.4 -.2 0.2.4 0.05.1.15.2 -.4 -.2 0.2.4 0.05.1.15.2 corporate ownership providing jobs addressing inequality -.2 0.2.4.6 0.05.1.15.2 -.2 -.1 0.1.2.3 0.05.1.15.2 -.2 -.1 0.1.2 0.05.1.15.2
Fig 3: s of Pension Particpation Rates on Belief That Markets are Best For Country Model numbers refer to Table 7 model 9 model 10 model 11 model 12-2 0 2 4 Marginal Effect -1 0 1 2 3 Marginal Effect -2 0 2 4 6 Marginal Effect -4-2 0 2 4 6 Marginal Effect -20 0 20 40 % contributors -20 0 20 40 % contributors -20 0 20 40 % contributors -20 0 20 40 % contributors