Mapping Student Debt - PDF Free Download

Mapping Student Debt Marshall I. Steinbaum June 24, 2016 Marshall I. Steinbaum National Association of Latino Elected Officials June 24, 2016 1 / 19

Project Overview Credit reporting student debt variables at the zip code level, thanks to Higher Ed, Not Debt. Marshall I. Steinbaum National Association of Latino Elected Officials June 24, 2016 2 / 19

Project Overview Credit reporting student debt variables at the zip code level, thanks to Higher Ed, Not Debt. Matched with American Community Survey data on demographic and economic variables. Marshall I. Steinbaum National Association of Latino Elected Officials June 24, 2016 2 / 19

Project Overview Credit reporting student debt variables at the zip code level, thanks to Higher Ed, Not Debt. Matched with American Community Survey data on demographic and economic variables. Result: you can tell a lot about student debt from its geography, particularly within metropolitan areas. Marshall I. Steinbaum National Association of Latino Elected Officials June 24, 2016 2 / 19

Outline 1 National findings: scatterplots for the whole country. 2 Local findings: a look at the maps. 3 Interpretation. 4 Where do we go from here? Federal and local policies for dealing with the student debt crisis. Marshall I. Steinbaum National Association of Latino Elected Officials June 24, 2016 3 / 19

Map 1: Loan Balance and Income Marshall I. Steinbaum National Association of Latino Elected Officials June 24, 2016 4 / 19

Map 1: Delinquency and Income Marshall I. Steinbaum National Association of Latino Elected Officials June 24, 2016 5 / 19

Map 2: Student Debt and Minority Populations Our analysis shows that Latinos and African-Americans are disproportionately affected by student loan delinquency. Marshall I. Steinbaum National Association of Latino Elected Officials June 24, 2016 6 / 19

Map 2: Student Debt and Minority Populations Our analysis shows that Latinos and African-Americans are disproportionately affected by student loan delinquency. That disproportionate vulnerability exists even after controlling for income. Marshall I. Steinbaum National Association of Latino Elected Officials June 24, 2016 6 / 19

Map 2: Student Debt and Minority Populations Our analysis shows that Latinos and African-Americans are disproportionately affected by student loan delinquency. That disproportionate vulnerability exists even after controlling for income. Moreover, it is worst for middle-class minorities. Marshall I. Steinbaum National Association of Latino Elected Officials June 24, 2016 6 / 19

Map 2: Minority Population and Delinquency (uncontrolled) Marshall I. Steinbaum National Association of Latino Elected Officials June 24, 2016 7 / 19

Map 2: Minority Population and Delinquency (controlled) Marshall I. Steinbaum National Association of Latino Elected Officials June 24, 2016 8 / 19

Map 3: The Student Debt Crisis is a Labor Market Crisis For Map 3, we calculate debt burden : the share of income the goes toward paying off student loans. Marshall I. Steinbaum National Association of Latino Elected Officials June 24, 2016 9 / 19

Map 3: The Student Debt Crisis is a Labor Market Crisis For Map 3, we calculate debt burden : the share of income the goes toward paying off student loans. Debt burden is high in two types of zip code: Where labor market outcomes like employment rate and earnings are worst. Where loan amounts are highest. Marshall I. Steinbaum National Association of Latino Elected Officials June 24, 2016 9 / 19

Map 3: Debt Burden Distribution Marshall I. Steinbaum National Association of Latino Elected Officials June 24, 2016 10 / 19

Map 3: Debt Burden and Employment Rate Marshall I. Steinbaum National Association of Latino Elected Officials June 24, 2016 11 / 19

Map 3: Debt Burden and Earnings Marshall I. Steinbaum National Association of Latino Elected Officials June 24, 2016 12 / 19

Map 3: Debt Burden and Loan Balance Marshall I. Steinbaum National Association of Latino Elected Officials June 24, 2016 13 / 19

Interactive Maps The Maps! Marshall I. Steinbaum National Association of Latino Elected Officials June 24, 2016 14 / 19

Map 3 Across Metro Areas Marshall I. Steinbaum National Association of Latino Elected Officials June 24, 2016 15 / 19

Interpretation The student debt crisis is the consequence of a mistaken economic theory of inequality and under-employment: that it is driven by a skills gap. Marshall I. Steinbaum National Association of Latino Elected Officials June 24, 2016 16 / 19

Interpretation The student debt crisis is the consequence of a mistaken economic theory of inequality and under-employment: that it is driven by a skills gap. The treatment arising from that mis-diagnosis was that more people should go to college, and they should take on debt to finance it. The debt would be repayable because under the theory of the skills gap, it would lead to good jobs. Since the skills gap was never the problem, higher education attainment is not the solution. Graduates still do much better than non-graduates, because when jobs are scarce they are all filled by graduates. Graduating college, even with debt, is still a good choice, but not a good policy. Marshall I. Steinbaum National Association of Latino Elected Officials June 24, 2016 16 / 19

Interpretation The student debt crisis is the consequence of a mistaken economic theory of inequality and under-employment: that it is driven by a skills gap. The treatment arising from that mis-diagnosis was that more people should go to college, and they should take on debt to finance it. The debt would be repayable because under the theory of the skills gap, it would lead to good jobs. Since the skills gap was never the problem, higher education attainment is not the solution. Graduates still do much better than non-graduates, because when jobs are scarce they are all filled by graduates. Graduating college, even with debt, is still a good choice, but not a good policy. Bad labor market outcomes leave graduates and especially drop-outs saddled with uneconomic debts. Marshall I. Steinbaum National Association of Latino Elected Officials June 24, 2016 16 / 19

Disparate Impact The impact on minority communities is especially severe, because the prescription of debt-financed college fails to account for historical disadvantage. Marshall I. Steinbaum National Association of Latino Elected Officials June 24, 2016 17 / 19

Disparate Impact The impact on minority communities is especially severe, because the prescription of debt-financed college fails to account for historical disadvantage. Higher education itself is segregated, increasingly so in the era of state disinvestment from public institutions and the rise of for-profits. The credit market is segmented, with minorities paying more for worse terms. Experimental evidence reveals pervasive labor market discrimination, and minorities and immigrants lack access to the social networks required for social mobility. Minorities have a small fraction of the household wealth of white households, even among households with similar income levels. That turns short-term economic setbacks into disasters. Marshall I. Steinbaum National Association of Latino Elected Officials June 24, 2016 17 / 19

Disparate Impact The impact on minority communities is especially severe, because the prescription of debt-financed college fails to account for historical disadvantage. Higher education itself is segregated, increasingly so in the era of state disinvestment from public institutions and the rise of for-profits. The credit market is segmented, with minorities paying more for worse terms. Experimental evidence reveals pervasive labor market discrimination, and minorities and immigrants lack access to the social networks required for social mobility. Minorities have a small fraction of the household wealth of white households, even among households with similar income levels. That turns short-term economic setbacks into disasters. For all these reasons, the policy of debt-financed college to reduce disparities was facile at best, and possibly counterproductive. Marshall I. Steinbaum National Association of Latino Elected Officials June 24, 2016 17 / 19

Federal Policy Most important: make the labor market work. The issue is not a skills gap. Marshall I. Steinbaum National Association of Latino Elected Officials June 24, 2016 18 / 19

Federal Policy Most important: make the labor market work. The issue is not a skills gap. Existing federal income-based repayment programs are under-utilized, so simply spreading the word is helpful. Income-based repayment could be streamlined by making enrollment automatic and responsive to current income. Application process for federal student loans is complex and could be made more like an entitlement. Marshall I. Steinbaum National Association of Latino Elected Officials June 24, 2016 18 / 19

Federal Policy Most important: make the labor market work. The issue is not a skills gap. Existing federal income-based repayment programs are under-utilized, so simply spreading the word is helpful. Income-based repayment could be streamlined by making enrollment automatic and responsive to current income. Application process for federal student loans is complex and could be made more like an entitlement. Department of Education enforcement of gainful employment and cohort default rate regulations on institutions. Marshall I. Steinbaum National Association of Latino Elected Officials June 24, 2016 18 / 19

State and Local Policy Restore previous levels of funding-per-student to public higher education, especially community colleges. Marshall I. Steinbaum National Association of Latino Elected Officials June 24, 2016 19 / 19

State and Local Policy Restore previous levels of funding-per-student to public higher education, especially community colleges. Some states are experimenting with free community college. Evidence shows this competes directly with for-profits. Strengthen state-level Higher Education regulation. Marshall I. Steinbaum National Association of Latino Elected Officials June 24, 2016 19 / 19

State and Local Policy Restore previous levels of funding-per-student to public higher education, especially community colleges. Some states are experimenting with free community college. Evidence shows this competes directly with for-profits. Strengthen state-level Higher Education regulation. Create student loan refinancing option from public borrowing. Marshall I. Steinbaum National Association of Latino Elected Officials June 24, 2016 19 / 19

State and Local Policy Restore previous levels of funding-per-student to public higher education, especially community colleges. Some states are experimenting with free community college. Evidence shows this competes directly with for-profits. Strengthen state-level Higher Education regulation. Create student loan refinancing option from public borrowing. Review punitive debt-collection measures and regulate loan servicers. Marshall I. Steinbaum National Association of Latino Elected Officials June 24, 2016 19 / 19