Monthly Report On SPICES April 2017 3rd April 2017
CARDAMOM Forward curve of Cardamom futures Historic returns of Cardamom futures during month of April 1420.00 15% 1370.00 1400.40 11% 1320.00 1270.00 1303.80 5% 2% 1220.00-1% 1170.00-3% 1120.00 1163.90 1160.80 1154.00 - -9% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016-7% Source: MCX Closing as on 31st Mar 2017 1091 1188 1246 1343 1401 1498 1556 Cardamom futures (May) may trade with a downside bias in the range of 1180-1380 levels. North Indian buyers have slowed down anticipating the arrival of the next crop from mid-june after the growing regions have received good rains week before last. Consequently, the market has become bearish. Buyers are of the opinion that there is no need to buy and stock as the gap from now and the next crop is around three months only. Besides, it would be difficult to resell the cardamom bought at the higher prices prevailing now. According to growers in traditional areas which have received good summer rains recently the plants regained health. Whereas, in non-traditional areas small and marginal farmers have planted cardamom under artificial shades following the rise in prices. These plants have dried up like grass. Consequently, there would be a decline of 10 per cent in the total output. According to trade sources Guatemalan cardamom has entered into the markets in the north Indian states and that could be a reason for the slow down in domestic demand. An estimated 5,000-6,000 tonnes of cardamom from Guatemala enter the Indian domestic market through both legal and illegal routes. During the period April-December, exports of small cardamom fell 22% on year to 3,000 tonnes. 2
TURMERIC Forward curve of Turmeric futures Historic returns of Turmeric futures during month of April 6800.00 4 36.17% 6700.00 6600.00 6672.00 3 6500.00 6400.00 6300.00 6200.00 6100.00 6278.00 6376.00 6524.00 2 - -1.41% -4.44% -3.97% -0.5-7.01% 0.31% 7.17% 9.99% 3.18% 6000.00 April May June July -2-15.43% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: NCDEX Closing as on 31st Mar 2017 5557 5929 6153 6525 6749 7121 7345 Turmeric futures (May) is expected to continue its bearish trend & can test 6000-5735 levels. Any gains due to lower levels buying & short covering may face resistance near 6750-7035 levels. Sellers are active in the spot markets & are reluctant for selling their stocks gradually on every rise. During this year the new turmeric Mysore 8 variety arrived for sale only in the first week of February and from March some other varieties also started arriving. Upcountry and local buyers are continued doing need-based buying. Activity in the market is thin as supply is good against slow demand from local and upcountry buyers. Bulk buyers are sidelined in the anticipation of correction in prices ahead due to better production estimates this season. Demand for turmeric is hand to mouth as buyers are not in hurry anticipating prices to stay around these levels in near to long term due to higher production this season. India exported 85,500 tonnes of turmeric in Apr-Dec, up 29% on year in terms of quantity and 39% in value terms 3
JEERA Forward curve of Jeera futures Historic returns of Jeera futures during month of April 18800.00 18600.00 18400.00 18200.00 18380.00 18640.00 5% -2.46% 1.54% -0.56% 3.27% -3.11% 1.17% -4.64% 18000.00 17800.00 17900.00 18120.00 - -15% -14.32% -11.89% 17600.00-2 -20.43% -21.25% 17400.00 April May June July -25% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: NCDEX Closing as on 31st Mar 2017 14512 15483 16802 17773 19092 20063 21382 Jeera futures (May) is expected to witness a consolidation in the range of 16000-19000 levels Additional margin of 5% on both long side and short side will be imposed on all the running contracts and yet to be launched contracts in Jeera with effect from March 31, 2017. In recent weeks, Cumin seed have extended gains at the key Unjha and Rajkot market on supported by good demand from local and upcountry buyers. Demand for cumin seed in the recent weeks has improved after reports of crop loss concern in Rajasthan. However no major threat to crop was witnessed so far in terms of quantity, but quality loss can't be ruled out. More than 50 percent crop was harvested in Rajasthan at the time of rainfall and there is not great threat to standing crop as the rainfall has mainly affected quality and not quantity. Less than 50 percent of cumin crop still standing in Rajasthan, forecast of rainfall this month has kept growers and traders on edge about likely damage to the harvest. It is to be noted that, the supply of cumin seed is much better than demand and hence fall in prices can't be ruled out in case arrivals persists. According to Agmarknet data, 33,110 tonnes of jeera arrived in the markets between March 1 and March 20, against 34,107 tonnes during the same period last year. India exports an average of 15,000 tonnes of jeera during March, April and May. New crop arrivals are increasing steadily across major spot markets and they are much higher compared to last year. India is likely to harvest over 58 lakh bags (55kg each) of cumin seed during the current season (March-Feb) 2017-18 against 42-45 lakh bags last year as better yield offset acreage losses, according to Federation of Indian Spices & Stakeholders. The Centre pegs production of jeera in the state at 221,000 tonnes, down 11 per cent from last year s output of 238,000 tonnes. The output is far lower than the normal of 346,000 tonnes in Gujarat in 2013-14. Acreage has fallen to 279,000 hectares this year from 286,000 hectares earlier. Exports of jeera during the period April-December were at 91,000 tonnes, up 35% from 67,300 tonnes a year ago. The spices' board has targeted jeera exports in the current financial year ending 31st March at 110,000 tonnes, data showed. Market participants are expecting exports will cross 120,000 tonnes this year against 94,352 tonnes a year ago. Jeera exports increased 36.7 per cent to 93,724 tonnes during April- December 2016-17. 4
CORIANDER Forward curve of Coriander futures Historic returns of Coriander futures during month of April 8,000.00 25% 23% 7,900.00 7,921.00 2 7,800.00 15% 7,700.00 7,793.00 7% 7% 7,600.00 7,665.00 5% 2% 2% 7,500.00 7,400.00 7,537.00-2% 7,300.00 April May June July - -7% -8% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: NCDEX Closing as on 31st Mar 2017 4985 5697 6100 6812 7215 7927 8330 Coriander futures (May) is expected to take support near 6550 levels, while the upside may get extended towards 8000-8100 levels. Additional margin of 2.5% on both long side and short side will be imposed on all the running contracts and yet to be launched contracts in Coriander with effect from March 31, 2017. Coriander prices are moving up in Guna and Kota market supported by strong buying. The needy buyers are desperate to source coriander for their near term requirements. However, overall the demand for coriander is not very great due to more than sufficient supply to cater domestic demand. Though crop is lower than last year, but offset by higher carry over stocks. On the contrary, farmers and stockists are interested to sell their produce after recent rally in prices. Higher prices may prompt farmers, stockists to liquidate their crop and may led to increased supply in the coming weeks. The fundamentals highlight that India is likely to harvest 3.8 lakh tonnes of coriander in 2016-17 season against 4.4 lakh tonnes last year, but higher carry over stock of 1.40 lakh tonnes is likely to offset production losses. During the period April-December, Coriander exports from India fell to 23,450 tonnes in the nine months ended December, down 21% on year, the data showed. 5
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