Economic Overview York County, February 14, 2018
DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE... 3 EMPLOYMENT TRENDS... 5 UNEMPLOYMENT RATE... 5 WAGE TRENDS... 6 COST OF LIVING INDEX... 6 INDUSTRY SNAPSHOT... 7 OCCUPATION SNAPSHOT... 9 INDUSTRY CLUSTERS... 11 EDUCATION LEVELS... 11 GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT... 12 FAQ... 13 2
Demographic Profile The population in York County, was 245,606 per American Community Survey data for 2012-2016. The region has a civilian labor force of 127,196 with a participation rate of 66.4%. Of individuals 25 to 64 in York County,, 31.2% have a bachelor s degree or higher which compares with 31.8% in the nation. The median household income in York County, is $56,482 and the median house value is $166,700. Summary 1 Percent Value York County, York County, Demographics Population (ACS) 245,606 4,834,605 318,558,162 Male 48.2% 48.6% 49.2% 118,494 2,348,338 156,765,322 Female 51.8% 51.4% 50.8% 127,112 2,486,267 161,792,840 Median Age 2 38.2 38.8 37.7 Under 18 Years 24.7% 22.5% 23.1% 60,738 1,085,779 73,612,438 18 to 24 Years 8.9% 9.9% 9.8% 21,773 479,402 31,296,577 25 to 34 Years 12.3% 12.9% 13.6% 30,093 625,847 43,397,907 35 to 44 Years 14.0% 12.4% 12.7% 34,397 597,453 40,548,400 45 to 54 Years 14.7% 13.5% 13.6% 36,054 650,886 43,460,466 55 to 64 Years 12.4% 13.1% 12.6% 30,534 633,558 40,061,742 65 to 74 Years 8.2% 9.6% 8.3% 20,035 466,367 26,355,308 75 Years, and Over 4.9% 6.1% 6.2% 11,982 295,313 19,825,324 Race: White 75.0% 67.3% 73.3% 184,220 3,252,252 233,657,078 Race: Black or African American 18.7% 27.4% 12.6% 45,982 1,322,368 40,241,818 Race: American Indian and Alaska Native 0.6% 0.3% 0.8% 1,570 15,417 2,597,817 Race: Asian 1.7% 1.4% 5.2% 4,225 68,553 16,614,625 Race: Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 121 2,784 560,021 Race: Some Other Race 1.4% 1.5% 4.8% 3,427 73,149 15,133,856 Race: Two or More Races 2.5% 2.1% 3.1% 6,061 100,082 9,752,947 Hispanic or Latino (of any race) 5.0% 5.3% 17.3% 12,240 258,361 55,199,107 Population Growth Population (Pop Estimates) 5 258,526 4,961,119 323,127,513 Population Annual Average Growth 5 2.7% 1.3% 0.8% 6,063 60,327 2,474,760 Economic Labor Force Participation Rate and Size (civilian population 16 years and over) 66.4% 60.5% 63.3% 127,196 2,323,777 159,807,099 Armed Forces Labor Force 0.1% 0.8% 0.4% 114 30,595 1,011,641 Veterans, Age 18-64 6.7% 7.0% 5.1% 10,290 207,724 10,165,671 Median Household Income 2 $56,482 $46,898 $55,322 3
Summary 1 Percent Value York County, York County, Per Capita Income $28,830 $25,521 $29,829 Poverty Level (of all people) 12.5% 17.2% 15.1% 30,218 806,422 46,932,225 Households Receiving Food Stamps 11.0% 14.8% 13.0% 10,156 272,322 15,360,951 Mean Commute Time (minutes) 26.4 24.1 26.1 Commute via Public Transportation 0.4% 0.6% 5.1% 494 12,389 7,476,312 Union Membership 3 4.1% 1.8% 10.7% Educational Attainment, Age 25-64 No High School Diploma 9.7% 12.1% 11.6% 12,766 302,721 19,478,050 High School Graduate 26.4% 28.7% 26.1% 34,606 720,372 43,788,541 Some College, No Degree 21.9% 21.9% 21.5% 28,682 549,091 36,025,193 Associate's Degree 10.8% 10.0% 8.9% 14,115 250,404 14,962,488 Bachelor's Degree 21.6% 17.9% 20.2% 28,274 449,411 33,845,524 Postgraduate Degree 9.6% 9.4% 11.6% 12,635 235,745 19,368,719 Housing Housing Units 99,638 2,192,041 134,054,899 Median House Value (of owner-occupied units) 2 $166,700 $143,600 $184,700 Homeowner Vacancy 1.6% 2.1% 1.8% 1,052 26,624 1,395,797 Rental Vacancy 4.5% 10.2% 6.2% 1,280 66,545 2,855,844 Renter-Occupied Housing Units (% of Occupied Units) 29.5% 31.6% 36.4% 27,194 580,380 42,835,169 Occupied Housing Units with No Vehicle Available (% of Occupied Units) 4.6% 6.7% 9.0% 4,271 123,699 10,562,847 Social Enrolled in Grade 12 (% of total population) 1.3% 1.3% 1.4% 3,286 64,914 4,433,703 Disconnected Youth 4 2.3% 3.2% 2.8% 312 8,107 485,589 Children in Single Parent Families (% of all children) 32.4% 41.0% 34.7% 18,876 416,879 24,318,038 With a Disability, Age 18-64 9.8% 12.6% 10.3% 14,960 367,911 20,188,257 With a Disability, Age 18-64, Labor Force Participation Rate and Size 40.7% 36.1% 41.0% 6,090 132,715 8,278,834 Foreign Born 4.8% 4.8% 13.2% 11,767 230,716 42,194,354 Speak English Less Than Very Well (population 5 yrs and over) 2.2% 2.8% 8.5% 5,120 125,734 25,440,956 Source: JobsEQ 1. American Community Survey 2012-2016, unless noted otherwise 2. Median values for certain aggregate regions (such as MSAs) may be estimated as the weighted averages of the median values from the composing counties. 3. 2016; Current Population Survey, unionstats.com, and Chmura; county- and zip-level data are best estimates based upon industry-, MSA-, and state-level data 4. Disconnected Youth are 16-19 year olds who are (1) not in school, (2) not high school graduates, and (3) either unemployed or not in the labor force. 5. Census 2016, annual average growth rate since 2006 4
Employment Trends As of 2017Q3, total employment for York County, was 100,790 (based on a four-quarter moving average). Over the year ending 2017Q3, employment increased 5.2% in the region. Employment data are derived from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and imputed where necessary. Data are updated through 2017Q1 with preliminary estimates updated to 2017Q3. Unemployment Rate The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for York County, was 4.2% as of December 2017. The regional unemployment rate was lower than the national rate of 4.3%. One year earlier, in December 2016, the unemployment rate in York County, was 4.2%. Unemployment rate data are from the Local Area Unemployment Statistics, provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and updated through December 2017. 5
Wage Trends The average worker in York County, earned annual wages of $44,226 as of 2017Q3. Average annual wages per worker increased 6.5% in the region during the preceding four quarters. For comparison purposes, annual average wages were $54,666 in the nation as of 2017Q3. Annual average wages per worker data are derived from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and imputed where necessary. Data are updated through 2017Q1 with preliminary estimates updated to 2017Q3. Cost of Living Index The Cost of Living Index estimates the relative price levels for consumer goods and services. When applied to wages and salaries, the result is a measure of relative purchasing power. The cost of living is 4.8% lower in York County, than the U.S. average. Cost of Living Information Annual Average Salary Cost of Living Index (Base US) US Purchasing Power York County, $44,226 95.2 $46,466 $43,628 95.4 $45,720 $54,666 100.0 $54,666 Source: JobsEQ Data as of 2017Q3 Cost of Living per C2ER, data as of 2017q2, imputed by Chmura where necessary. 6
Industry Snapshot The largest sector in York County, is Retail Trade, employing 12,277 workers. The next-largest sectors in the region are Manufacturing (11,662 workers) and Health Care and Social Assistance (10,114). High location quotients (LQs) indicate sectors in which a region has high concentrations of employment compared to the national average. The sectors with the largest LQs in the region are Utilities (LQ = 2.51), Manufacturing (1.41), and Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation (1.16). Employment data are derived from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and imputed where necessary. Data are updated through 2017Q1 with preliminary estimates updated to 2017Q3. Sectors in York County, with the highest average wages per worker are Utilities ($121,217), Management of Companies and Enterprises ($98,901), and Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction ($72,781). Regional sectors with the best job growth (or most moderate job losses) over the last 5 years are Accommodation and Food Services (+2,828 jobs), Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services (+2,486), and Construction (+1,769). Over the next 1 year, employment in York County, is projected to expand by 1,918 jobs. The fastest growing sector in the region is expected to be Health Care and Social Assistance with a +3.1% year-over-year rate of growth. The strongest forecast by number of jobs over this period is expected for Health Care and Social Assistance (+313 jobs), Accommodation and Food Services (+202), and Retail Trade (+199). 7
Current Historical Forecast Four Quarters Ending with 2017q3 Change over the Last 5 Years Average Annual % Change in Employment 2012q3-2017q3 Over the Next 1 Year NAICS Industry Empl Avg. Annual Wages Location Quotient Empl York County, Approx Sep Demand Growth Demand Avg. Annual Growth Percent 11 21 Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction 847 $26,256 0.59-164 -3.5% -0.1% 0.7% 91 13 1.5% 38 $72,781 0.10-9 -3.9% 6.5% -5.3% 4 1 1.8% 22 Utilities 1,344 $121,217 2.51-6 -0.1% 0.8% 0.2% 122 13 1.0% 23 Construction 5,367 $49,030 0.96 1,769 8.3% 4.3% 3.4% 531 127 2.4% 31 Manufacturing 11,662 $58,459 1.41 1,648 3.1% 1.9% 0.8% 1,219 65 0.6% 42 Wholesale Trade 4,383 $66,829 1.11 828 4.3% 2.0% 0.9% 463 69 1.6% 44 Retail Trade 12,277 $28,118 1.13 952 1.6% 1.8% 1.3% 1,651 199 1.6% 48 Transportation and Warehousing 3,538 $42,074 0.84 1,601 12.8% 4.5% 2.6% 377 81 2.3% 51 Information 1,951 $66,668 0.97 330 3.8% 1.0% 0.9% 191 28 1.4% 52 Finance and Insurance 4,377 $65,710 1.09-710 -3.0% 0.9% 1.1% 416 105 2.4% 53 54 55 56 Real Estate and Rental and Leasing Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services Management of Companies and Enterprises Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services 1,570 $61,540 0.92 470 7.4% 2.7% 2.0% 161 29 1.9% 5,705 $59,972 0.86 2,486 12.1% 3.3% 2.3% 493 146 2.6% 1,560 $98,901 1.06 1,402 58.0% 4.4% 2.7% 142 29 1.8% 6,594 $37,452 1.01 522 1.7% 2.7% 2.5% 765 151 2.3% 61 Educational Services 8,554 $37,791 1.03 670 1.6% 0.6% 0.7% 795 125 1.5% 62 71 72 81 Health Care and Social Assistance Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Accommodation and Food Services Other Services (except Public Administration) 10,114 $43,476 0.71 1,502 3.3% 2.4% 2.5% 959 313 3.1% 2,312 $15,925 1.16 262 2.4% 2.1% 2.3% 326 48 2.1% 10,078 $15,777 1.11 2,828 6.8% 3.5% 3.0% 1,640 202 2.0% 4,795 $27,274 1.08 689 3.2% 0.9% -0.2% 548 93 1.9% 92 Public Administration 3,723 $41,117 0.78 424 2.5% 1.2% 0.1% 344 60 1.6% - All Industries 100,790 $44,226 1.00 17,494 3.9% 2.2% 1.7% 11,069 1,918 1.9% Source: JobsEQ Employment data are derived from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and imputed where necessary. Data are updated through 2017Q1 with preliminary estimates updated to 2017Q3. Forecast employment growth uses national projections adapted for regional growth patterns. 8
Occupation Snapshot The largest major occupation group in York County, is Office and Administrative Support Occupations, employing 14,183 workers. The next-largest occupation groups in the region are Sales and Related Occupations (11,358 workers) and Food Preparation and Serving Related Occupations (9,765). High location quotients (LQs) indicate occupation groups in which a region has high concentrations of employment compared to the national average. The major groups with the largest LQs in the region are Production Occupations (LQ = 1.42), Architecture and Engineering Occupations (1.14), and Food Preparation and Serving Related Occupations (1.13). Occupation groups in York County, with the highest average wages per worker are Management Occupations ($114,800), Legal Occupations ($97,000), and Computer and Mathematical Occupations ($76,700). The unemployment rate in the region varied among the major groups from 1.3% among Legal Occupations to 6.0% among Food Preparation and Serving Related Occupations. Over the next 1 year, the fastest growing occupation group in York County, is expected to be Healthcare Support Occupations with a +3.5% year-over-year rate of growth. The strongest forecast by number of jobs over this period is expected for Food Preparation and Serving Related Occupations (+204 jobs) and Office and Administrative Support Occupations (+199). Over the same period, the highest separation demand (occupation demand due to retirements and workers moving from one occupation to another) is expected in Food Preparation and Serving Related Occupations (1,804 jobs) and Office and Administrative Support Occupations (1,668). Occupation Snapshot in York County, Current Historical Forecast Four Quarters Ending with 2017q3 2017q3 Change over the Last 5 Years Avg Ann % Chg in Empl 2012q3-2017q3 Over the Next 1 Year SOC Occupation Empl Avg. Annual Wages 1 LQ Unempl Unempl Rate Empl York County, Current Online Job Ads 2 Sep Demand Growth Demand Avg. Annual Growth Percent 11-13- 15-17- 19-21- 23-25- 27- Management 5,508 $114,800 0.91 125 1.8% 1,065 4.4% 1.9% 1.5% 417 455 120 2.2% Business and Financial Operations Computer and Mathematical Architecture and Engineering Life, Physical, and Social Science Community and Social Service 5,159 $68,600 1.00 190 2.8% 1,084 4.8% 2.2% 1.6% 259 492 125 2.4% 2,532 $76,700 0.86 101 2.8% 778 7.6% 3.2% 2.4% 365 179 62 2.4% 1,935 $74,700 1.14 57 2.6% 412 4.9% 1.9% 1.0% 92 149 37 1.9% 624 $60,200 0.76 20 2.7% 142 5.3% 1.9% 1.1% 29 61 12 2.0% 1,280 $42,300 0.79 29 1.9% 107 1.8% 1.7% 1.9% 44 148 32 2.5% Legal 573 $97,000 0.70 10 1.3% 101 4.0% 0.9% 0.4% 17 38 13 2.3% Education, Training, and Library Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media 29- Healthcare Practitioners and 6,214 $39,100 1.10 324 4.7% 563 1.9% 0.7% 0.8% 202 557 105 1.7% 1,587 $47,000 0.87 56 2.9% 241 3.4% 1.4% 1.1% 58 162 27 1.7% 4,257 $71,200 0.74 86 1.5% 610 3.1% 1.8% 1.7% 410 245 115 2.7% 9
Occupation Snapshot in York County, Current Historical Forecast Four Quarters Ending with 2017q3 2017q3 Change over the Last 5 Years Avg Ann % Chg in Empl 2012q3-2017q3 Over the Next 1 Year SOC Occupation Empl Avg. Annual Wages 1 LQ Unempl Unempl Rate Empl York County, Current Online Job Ads 2 Sep Demand Growth Demand Avg. Annual Growth Percent 31-33- 35-37- 39-41- 43-45- 47-49- 51-53- 00- Technical Healthcare Support 2,339 $25,800 0.83 145 4.7% 339 3.2% 2.6% 2.2% 152 294 83 3.5% Protective Service 1,885 $36,400 0.87 84 3.1% 158 1.8% 1.4% 1.0% 52 201 33 1.7% Food Preparation and Serving Related Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance Personal Care and Service 9,765 $20,300 1.13 707 6.0% 2,606 6.4% 3.4% 2.9% 595 1,804 204 2.1% 3,128 $23,100 0.88 196 4.8% 400 2.8% 1.8% 1.0% 160 417 65 2.1% 3,524 $23,200 0.90 186 4.3% 494 3.1% 2.3% 2.0% 178 577 99 2.8% Sales and Related 11,358 $36,800 1.10 567 4.0% 1,404 2.7% 2.0% 1.3% 986 1,642 192 1.7% Office and Administrative Support Farming, Fishing, and Forestry Construction and Extraction Installation, Maintenance, and Repair 14,183 $33,100 0.95 828 4.3% 1,915 2.9% 2.3% 1.7% 590 1,668 199 1.4% 360 $29,900 0.54 22 5.9% -87-4.2% 0.4% 1.3% 0 55 5 1.3% 4,246 $35,200 0.93 294 5.4% 1,209 6.9% 3.6% 2.6% 106 469 98 2.3% 4,272 $42,800 1.11 168 3.2% 709 3.7% 2.3% 1.6% 267 427 77 1.8% Production 8,733 $35,800 1.42 512 5.2% 1,209 3.0% 2.0% 1.2% 279 997 59 0.7% Transportation and Material Moving 7,329 $29,200 1.07 536 5.6% 2,037 6.7% 3.2% 2.2% 400 965 142 1.9% - All Occupations 100,790 $41,600 1.00 n/a n/a 17,494 3.9% 2.2% 1.7% 5,664 12,004 1,918 1.9% Source: JobsEQ Data as of 2017Q3 unless noted otherwise Note: Figures may not sum due to rounding. 1. Occupation wages are as of 2016 and should be taken as the average for all Covered Employment 2. Data represent found online ads active within the last thirty days in any zip code intersecting or within the selected region; data represents a sampling rather than the complete universe of postings. Occupation employment data are estimated via industry employment data and the estimated industry/occupation mix. Industry employment data are derived from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and currently updated through 2017Q1, imputed where necessary with preliminary estimates updated to 2017Q3. Wages by occupation are as of 2016 provided by the BLS and imputed where necessary. Forecast employment growth uses national projections from the Bureau of Labor Statistics adapted for regional growth patterns. 10
Industry Clusters A cluster is a geographic concentration of interrelated industries or occupations. The industry cluster in York County, with the highest relative concentration is Textile/Leather with a location quotient of 3.57. This cluster employs 957 workers in the region with an average wage of $45,269. Employment in the Textile/Leather cluster is projected to contract in the region about 0.5% per year over the next ten years. Location quotient and average wage data are derived from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, imputed where necessary, and updated through 2017Q1 with preliminary estimates updated to 2017Q3. Forecast employment growth uses national projections from the Bureau of Labor Statistics adapted for regional growth patterns. Education Levels Expected growth rates for occupations vary by the education and training required. While all employment in York County, is projected to grow 1.9% over the next ten years, occupations typically requiring a postgraduate degree are expected to grow 2.4% per year, those requiring a bachelor s degree are forecast to grow 2.2% per year, and occupations typically needing a 2-year degree or certificate are expected to grow 2.3% per year. Employment by occupation data are estimates are as of 2017Q3. Education levels of occupations are based on BLS assignments. Forecast employment growth uses national projections from the Bureau of Labor Statistics adapted for regional growth patterns. 11
Gross Domestic Product Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the total value of goods and services produced by a region. In 2016, nominal GDP in York County, expanded 5.6%. This follows growth of 3.8% in 2015. As of 2016, total GDP in York County, was $9,422,738,000. Gross Domestic Product data are provided by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, imputed by Chmura where necessary, updated through 2016. Of the sectors in York County,, Manufacturing contributed the largest portion of GDP in 2016, $1,855,500,000 The next-largest contributions came from Real Estate and Rental and Leasing ($1,126,246,000); Retail Trade ($687,334,000); and Wholesale Trade ($673,569,000). Gross Domestic Product data are provided by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, imputed by Chmura where necessary, updated through 2016. 12
FAQ What is a location quotient? A location quotient (LQ) is a measurement of concentration in comparison to the nation. An LQ of 1.00 indicates a region has the same concentration of an industry (or occupation) as the nation. An LQ of 2.00 would mean the region has twice the expected employment compared to the nation and an LQ of 0.50 would mean the region has half the expected employment in comparison to the nation. What is separation demand? Separation demand is the number of jobs required due to separations labor force exits (including retirements) and turnover resulting from workers moving from one occupation into another. Note that separation demand does not include all turnover it does not include when workers stay in the same occupation but switch employers. The total projected demand for an occupation is the sum of the separation demand and the growth demand (which is the increase or decrease of jobs in an occupation expected due to expansion or contraction of the overall number of jobs in that occupation). What is a cluster? A cluster is a geographic concentration of interrelated industries or occupations. If a regional cluster has a location quotient of 1.25 or greater, the region is considered to possess a competitive advantage in that cluster. What is the difference between industry wages and occupation wages? Industry wages and occupation wages are estimated via separate data sets, often the time periods being reported do not align, and wages are defined slightly differently in the two systems (for example, certain bonuses are included in the industry wages but not the occupation wages). It is therefore common that estimates of the average industry wages and average occupation wages in a region do not match exactly. What is NAICS? The North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) is used to classify business establishments according to the type of economic activity. The NAICS Code comprises six levels, from the all industry level to the 6-digit level. The first two digits define the top level category, known as the sector, which is the level examined in this report. What is SOC? The Standard Occupational Classification system (SOC) is used to classify workers into occupational categories. All workers are classified into one of over 820 occupations according to their occupational definition. To facilitate classification, occupations are combined to form 23 major groups, 96 minor groups, and 449 occupation groups. Each occupation group includes detailed occupations requiring similar job duties, skills, education, or experience. About This Report This report and all data herein were produced by JobsEQ, a product of Chmura Economics & Analytics. The information contained herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable. However, we cannot guarantee its accuracy and completeness. 13