The currency market just got a lot bigger!
Thomas Fischer MBA 38 years in financial services Currency trader 1978-2000 Jyske Bank/JGAM 2000-2013 Editor Currency Cross Trader Consultant ENR Asset Management Golf Copenhagen Marathon 05 4:10 Copenhagen Marathon 07 4:08
The size of the FX Market 2013 5.3 Trillion US dollars every day! US dollar 87% of all trades UK (41%) & USA (19%) largest jurisdictions
Model Portfolio Theory Diversification reduce unsystematic risk Best level of diversification efficient frontier Global diversification currency overlay Systematic risk cannot be diversified away. 4
5 US Efficient Frontier
Active Currency Overlay Absolute return strategies Active Management seeking excess return (Alpha) Profitting from inefficiencies Allocating percentage to currency managers to get international exposure 6
7 Global Efficient Frontier Active Currency Overlay
Global Diversification Individual Stocks, Bonds & Currencies (no currency hedging) Global Funds (hedging within Fund) Regional Funds (hedging within Fund) Emerging Market Funds (hedging within Fund) Country Funds (hedging within Fund) 8
Purchasing-Power-Parity Long term measurement based on inflation Fundamentals always right in the long run but. Currency rates affected by short term traders Currency risk needs to be watched 24-7 9
Factors affecting currency rates Macroeconomic factors GDP/Unemployment/Growth Interest rate differential Market trends momentum/relative strength index Central banks 10
FX As An Asset Class why currencies make sense in an uncertain climate 24 hour trading Low spreads between buying/selling Liquid daily volume $ 5+ Trillion (NYSE daily turnover $ 55 Billion) Many participants difficult to manipulate markets Anonymous Trading Absolute returns Not correlating with other asset classes Even during the 2008 Meltdown trading remain liquid
Returns in a Zero-Sum Market As the most liquid market in the world, shouldn t currency markets be the most efficient, and so not offer consistent returns to investors? AND How can a zero-sum game (or a long-short market) such as currencies offer consistent returns to investors? Who are the systematic losers?
Liquidity-Seekers (or Non-Profit Seekers) International investors who buy bonds, equities, or credit, who either fully hedge their currency exposure, or do not hedge at all Central banks who buy or sell currencies in order to maintain an exchange rate policy Corporates who need to export, import or engage in FDI Tourists
Profit-Seekers Currency Managers Dedicated currency-only hedge funds Global macro hedge funds, who trade currencies as well as other markets Retail Traders (Trading platforms) Editor Currency Cross Trader
Analyzing Currencies like stocks GDP Interest rates Employment rate FDI Sentiment Charts 15
EURO 11 member states introduced EUR January 1999 Notes and coins were launched on 1 January 2002 Today 17 member states 33% of all currency trades 27% of world foreign exchange reserves
Member States using Euro Belgium Germany Estonia Ireland Greece Spain France Italy Cyprus Luxembourg Malta The Netherlands Austria Portugal Slovenia Slovakia Finland
Euro Statistics GDP: 12,4 trillion USD (17 countries) Population: 332 million (17 countries) Government debt: 85% of GDP Unemployment: 12.1% 10 year bond: 1.76%
Eurozone alphabet soup!
ECB alphabet soup - explained! EFSF = European Financial Stability Facility created 2010 EUR 440 Billion EFSM = European Financial Stabilisation Mechanism created 2010 EUR 60 billion SMP = Securities Markets Programme ECB purchase in secondary bond markets discontinued 2012 now OMT ESM = European Stability Mechanism created 2012 EUR 500 Billion LTRO = Long-Term Refinancing Operations existed since 1999 but Mario Draghi introduced 3 year lending in 2011 EUR 489 Billion in 2012 EUR 529 Billion OMT = Outright Monetary Transacions 2012 ECB purchase secondary sovereign bond markets
The EURO Source: BCA
USD GDP 15, 6 trillion Population 316 million 50 states 87% of all currency trades 63% of World foreign exchange reserves
USD Statistics GDP: 15,720,000,000 Population: 316 million National debt of GDP: 100% Unemployment: 7.30% 10 year Government bond 2.62%
EUR/USD Source: Jyske Markets All time high: 1.6038 (07/18/08) All time low: 0.8230 (10/26/00) Average since introduction: 1.2024 Current: 1.3450 Daily turnover: 1.3 trillion
Currency Cross Trader Research and input from trading room Friday Updates Frequent trade recommendations Targets identified Leverage suggestions Visit The Sovereign Society booth
Thomas Contact Details Fischer56@mac.com Thomas@enrasset.com 011-45-3880 0011 011-45-2526 9239