US Economic Indicators: Personal Saving August 7, 218 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@ Debbie Johnson 48-664-1333 djohnson@ Mali Quintana 48-664-1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of Contents Personal Saving 1-2 US Mutual Funds: Net 12-Month Inflows 3 Liquid Assets 4 Misc 5 August 7, 218 / Personal Saving www.
14 Figure 1. PERSONAL SAVING RATE (percent, saar) Personal Saving 14 12 12 1 1 8 8 6 6 4 4 2 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Haver Analytics. 2 12 Figure 2. PERSONAL SAVING (billion dollars, 12-month sum) 12 1 Avg = $882.bn 1 8 8 6 6 4 Avg = $48.5bn 4 2 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Haver Analytics. 2 Page 1 / August 7, 218 / Personal Saving www.
Personal Saving 12 11 Figure 3. CONSUMER CREDIT & PERSONAL SAVING 12 11 1 9 Personal Saving (12-month sum) (121.9) 1 9 8 7 Consumer Credit Outstanding* (12-month change) (176.4) 8 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1-1 -2 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-1 -2 * Break-adjusted level series are calculated by Haver Analytics using the level data and the break-adjusted percent changes reported by the FRB. Source: Federal Reserve Board and Bureau of Economic Analysis. 3 Figure 4. CONSUMER CREDIT OUTSTANDING (yearly change, billion dollars, sa) 3 2 Revolving Credit (47.3) Nonrevolving Credit (129.) 2 1 1-1 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Source: Federal Reserve Board. -1 Page 2 / August 7, 218 / Personal Saving www.
3 2 1-1 -2-3 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 85 8 75 7 65 6 55 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 14 12 Figure 5. US Mutual Funds: Net 12-Month Inflows MONEY MARKET MUTUAL FUNDS HELD BY INDIVIDUALS (12-month net inflows, billion dollars) Total (6.) 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 SAVINGS DEPOSITS** Total (257.9) 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 EQUITY + BOND MUTUAL FUNDS* (12-month net inflows, billion dollars) Total (593.2) 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 MUTUAL FUNDS (EQUITY + BOND + ETFs + RETAIL MONEY MARKET) + SAVINGS DEPOSITS (12-month net inflows, billion dollars) 3 2 1-1 -2-3 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 85 8 75 7 65 6 55 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 14 12 1 8 6 4 Total (911.1) 1 8 6 4 2 2 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 * Net sales (including reinvested dividends) less redemptions plus the net result of fund switches. ** Includes money market deposit accounts, but not small time deposits. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Investment Company Institute. Page 3 / August 7, 218 / Personal Saving www.
Liquid Assets 13.5 13. 12.5 12. 11.5 11. 1.5 1. 9.5 9. 8.5 8. 7.5 7. 6.5 6. Figure 6. LIQUID ASSETS* (trillion dollars, sa, ratio scale) 7/23 13.5 13. 12.5 12. 11.5 11. 1.5 1. 9.5 9. 8.5 8. 7.5 7. 6.5 6. 5.5 5.5 5. 5. 4.5 4.5 4. 4. 3.5 3.5 3. 3. 2.5 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2 2.5 * Total savings deposits (including money market deposit accounts), small time deposits, and total money market mutual funds held by individuals & institutions. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 15 14 13 12 Figure 7. LIQUID ASSETS* 15 14 13 12 11 1 9 8 7 6 As a percent of Wilshire 5 (42.) S&P 5 Market Cap (51.3) 11 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 7/25 7/27 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2 5 4 3 2 * Total savings deposits (including money market deposit accounts), small time deposits, and total money market mutual funds held by individuals & institutions. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Standard & Poor s Corporation, and Wall Street Journal. Page 4 / August 7, 218 / Personal Saving www.
1 Figure 8. Misc PERSONAL SAVING & GASOLINE OUTLAYS PER HOUSEHOLD (thousand dollars) 1 8 8 6 Personal Saving (12-month sum) (8422.4) PCE: Gasoline (saar) (2631.3) 6 4 4 2 2 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Haver Analytics. Page 5 / August 7, 218 / Personal Saving www.
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